Review Credit Research 19 February 2016

Transcription

1 Review Credit Research 19 February 216 Marine Harvest Industry (GICS): Food Products Sector (Nordea): Seafood BB Stable Key info Country Bloomberg debt Bloomberg equity Moody's S&P Market cap. (bn) Norway MHGNO Corp MHG NO NR/--- NR/--- EUR 5.76/NOK 55.9 Nordea Markets - Analysts Lars Kirkeby Chief analyst, Credit lars.kirkeby@nordea.com Kristoffer B. Pedersen Analyst kristoffer.b.pedersen@nordea.com Revenue by segment 215 MH Consumer Products 2% Feed 6% MH Markets 4% Other 1% Farming 33% Bond spreads spread to swap, bp Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Strong market outlook mitigates higher leverage Marine Harvest posted Q4 215 earnings below our expectations, as ongoing cost inflation is a major concern. In addition, the overall financial profile is slowly weakening quarter by quarter owing to the ongoing debt financing of dividends. Luckily, the market outlook for 216 is very strong. The group's listed 218 bond has widened in line with the overall market at the start of the year and is trading in line with comparable sector peers. Q4 215 earnings fall short of our estimates Group revenue increased y/y, but adjusted EBITDA (excluding fair value adjustments on biological assets and operational leasing expense) declined by 7%, reflecting increased production costs in all regions. Second consecutive quarter with debt financing of dividends The proposed dividend of NOK 1.4 per share for Q4 corresponds to a total dividend distribution of NOK 63m in Q1, unchanged from the previous quarter. The quarterly dividend will be paid to shareholders in the form of a repayment of capital. This is the second consecutive quarter with debt financing of dividends, as the group's quarterly free cash flow after capex was insufficient to cover distribution to shareholders in both Q3 and Q Credit view We maintain our shadow rating on Marine Harvest at BB with a Stable outlook, reflecting our assessment of a Weak business risk profile and an Intermediate financial risk profile. The current financial profile of the group is firmly rooted within the Intermediate category, but ongoing margin pressure and the debt financing of the dividend may put pressure on the group's financial profile. MHG1 Source: OSE and Nordea Markets Key credit metrics and ratios (adjusted numbers) NOKm EBITDA 2,228 3,95 15% 26% EBIT 1,357 4,512 9% 3% Shareholders' equity 11,461 12,592 Debt 5,486 5,737 Debt/(Debt+Equity).3.3 FFO/Debt 47.6% 74.3% FOCF/Debt 27.2% 11.4% DCF/Debt 27.2% -1.4% EBITDA interest coverage Debt/EBITDA ROC 7.2% 23.3% 211 3,547 22% 1,35 8% 1,837 7, % 29.5% -7.2% % 212 1,373 9% 991 6% 11,689 6, % 1.1% 1.1% % 213 4,266 22% 3,46 18% 16,346 9, % -3.8% -12.5% % 214 5,64 22% 4,533 18% 14,718 12, % 8.7% -19.7% % 215 4,95 18% 3,611 13% 18,187 11, % -2.5% -17.8% % 216E 7,491 25% 6,7 2% 19,153 11, % 33.6% 6.1% % 217E 9,247 3% 7,827 25% 2,34 11, % 35.6% 3.5% % 218E 9,726 31% 8,36 27% 18,24 11, % 38.2% -3.1% % IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS REPORT Markets

2 Marine Harvest 19 February 216 Strong market outlook mitigates higher leverage Marine Harvest posted Q4 215 earnings below our expectations, as the ongoing cost inflation is a major concern. In addition, the overall financial profile is slowly weakening quarter by quarter owing to the ongoing debt financing of dividends. Luckily, the market outlook for 216 is very strong. Earnings below our expectations Weaker operating cash flow, insufficient to fund net capex and investments Comparable revenue increased by 16% y/y, while adjusted EBITDA (excluding fair value adjustments on biological assets and operational leasing expense) declined by 7% and the adjusted EBITDA margin weakened to 15% (Q4 214: 18%). The decline in EBITDA reflects increased production costs in all regions, driven by higher feed costs as well as ongoing sea lice challenges. Marine Harvest's reported operating cash flow dropped by 56% y/y to NOK 233m (Q4 214: NOK 534m), hurt by a seasonal build-up of working capital. The group's operating cash flow was insufficient to fund quarterly net capex and investments of NOK 714m. Revenue and EBITDA, NOKm FFO and total debt, NOKm % 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % % 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin FFO Total debt FFO/Total debt Unchanged dividend Weaker credit profile New financial target The proposed dividend of NOK 1.4 per share for Q4 215 corresponds to a total dividend distribution of NOK 63m in Q1 216, unchanged from the previous quarter. The quarterly dividend will be paid to shareholders in the form of a repayment of capital. Marine Harvest s free cash flow after capex is insufficient to cover distribution to shareholders, so the group s leverage is creeping upwards. The group s adjusted net debt increased by NOK 85m during the quarter, coming in at NOK 11.1bn (Q3 215: NOK 1.2bn), hurt by higher capex, continued high dividends and the weaker NOK. Consequently, the net debt to EBITDA and total debt to capitalisation ratios weakened to 2.3x and 39% (Q3 215: 2.1x and 38%), respectively. Following the business expansion and higher harvest volumes, the board has revised its long-term net interest-bearing debt target from EUR 95m to EUR 1,5m. Net debt and EBITDA, NOKm Total debt and capitalisation, NOKm % 4 % 3 % 2 % 1 % % Net debt EBITDA Net debt to EBITDA Total debt Total debt to capitalisation Nordea Markets 2

3 Marine Harvest 19 February 216 High salmon prices in Europe, but the opposite in the US Industry demand was strong in Europe and Asia in Q4, combined with modest supply growth, prices increased in Europe. In the US and Chile however, prices were weak as a result of relatively high supply growth and an increase of European salmon into the American market. Reference prices Norway, per kg gutted weight Reference prices Chile and North America, per kg gutted weight Q1 213 Q1 214 Q1 215 Q1 216 Norway Q1 213 Q1 214 Q1 215 Q1 216 Chile North America Strong market outlook The market balance is expected to be tight in 216 as global supply is forecast by Kontali Analyse to decline by approximately 3%. At the same time, global demand is expected to be robust. Accordingly, the Nasdaq forward price for 216 has increased to a record-high NOK 5 per kg, up from NOK 44 per kg in the previous quarter. Cost inflation is a major concern The cost trend for the salmon farming industry continued up in Q4 215 owing to rising input factors and biological issues. In particular, costs related to sea lice are unacceptably high. The cost development is concerning and Marine Harvest expects high costs also in H Nordea Markets 3

4 Marine Harvest 19 February 216 Credit profile considerations The business risk profile is supported by: Supportive business risk profile elements Strong market position as the world's largest producer of farmed salmon, with a global market share of approximately 2%. Strong geographical diversification, with presence in all major salmonfarming regions (Norway, Chile, Scotland and Canada). Healthy financial profile. The business risk profile is challenged by: Challenging business risk profile elements Weak business risk profile Fish farming being a highly volatile and cyclical industry. The industry being characterised by volatile demand and supply patterns. High business risk, in particular biological risk. High event risk, with an aggressive acquisition history. Risk of increasing dividend distributions. We believe that the overall business risk profile associated with Marine Harvest can be considered Weak, according to the Expanded Rating Matrix below from Standard & Poor's. Expanded Rating Matrix - Financial Risk Profile - Business Risk Profile Minimal Modest Intermediate Significant Aggressive Highly Leveraged Excellent AAA/AA+ AA A+/A A- BBB BBB-/BB+ Strong AA/AA- A+/A A-/BBB+ BBB BB+ BB Satisfactory A/A- BBB+ BBB/BBB- BBB-/BB+ BB B+ Fair BBB/BBB- BBB- BB+ BB BB- B Weak BB+ BB+ BB BB- B+ B/B- Vulnerable BB- BB- BB-/B+ B+ B B- Core ratios Supplementary coverage ratios Supplementary payback ratios FFO/Debt (%) Debt/EBITDA (x) FFO/Interest (x) EBITDA/Interest (x) CFO/Debt (%) FOCF/Debt (%) DCF/Debt (%) Minimal > 6 < 1.5 > 13 > 15 > 5 > 4 > 25 Modest Intermediate Significant Aggressive Highly Leveraged < 12 > 5 < 2 < 2 < 1 < 5 < 2 Source: Standard & Poor's Intermediate financial risk profile We adjust the reported debt with respect to pension liabilities and operational leases Our opinion is that the financial risk profile associated with Marine Harvest can be considered Intermediate. According to the guidelines from S&P, we evaluate credit ratios on a time series basis. We consider the group's credit ratios for the previous two years, as well as the current year's forecast. We adjust Marine Harvest's reported debt by adding pension liabilities and operational lease commitments. The minimum lease payments under noncancellable operating leases amounted to NOK 1,49m as of 31 December 214. Nordea Markets 4

5 Marine Harvest 19 February 216 Bond details Ticker Issuer Corp Bond Issue Maturity Coupon Size (m) Rank MHG1 Marine Harvest ASA BB BB N3M +35 NOK 1 25 Senior unsecured Marine Harvest ASA BB BB % EUR 375 Unsecured convertible Marine Harvest ASA BB BB % EUR 34 Unsecured convertible Source: Stamdata Last trade level(s) The listed 218 (MHG1) bond last traded on the OSE on 18 February 216 at 1.15 (spread to swap +343 bp). Peer group, last bond trades on the OSE, bp 45 4 AUSS8 35 MHG1 Spread to swap AUSS6 PRO BAKKA1 AUSS Maturity Source: OSE and Nordea Markets Key bond details for MHG1 Key bond details for the convertible bond issue Bank debt details Senior unsecured Subordinated secured bank debt Put option at 11% if a change-of-control event occurs The change-of-control event is triggered if any entity other than Geveran Trading or other companies controlled by John Fredriksen become owners of more than 5% of the shares Minimum equity ratio of 3.% Call option at 13.% from March 216 up to March 217 Call option at 11.5% from March 217 and thereafter. Senior unsecured Subordinated secured bank debt Put option at 1% if a change-of-control event occurs. EUR 555m facility agreement Maturity in Q4 219 Minimum equity ratio of 35% Accordion option for increase of facility by EUR 295m Lenders: ABN Amro, DNB, Nordea and Rabobank. Nordea Markets 5

6 Marine Harvest 19 February 216 Reported numbers and forecasts Income statement NOKm Total revenue -growth Gross profit EBITDA EBITA EBIT Net finance Pre-tax profit Taxes Net profit, continuing operations Discontinued operations Net profit to equity 29 14, % 4, % 2, % 1,56 1.4% 1, % 326 1, ,296 1, , % 4, % 3, % 3, % 4, % -29 4,282 1,152 3,13 3, , % 5, % 3, % 2, % 1, % 193 1, ,11 1, , % 3, % 1,28 7.8% % % , % 3, % 3, % 2, % 3, % -1,24 3,457-1,27 2, , , % 5, % 5, % 4, % 4, % -2,147 1, ,71 4.6% 4, % 4, % 3, % 3, % , , , E 29, % 7, % 7,5 24.% 5, % 5, % ,486-1,372 4,115 4, E 29,13 -.2% 7, % 7, % 6, % 6, % -29 6,255-1,564 4,691 4, E 24, % 4, % 4, % 3, % 3, % , ,551 2,551 EBITDA (credit adj) EBIT (credit adj) Interest expense (credit adj) 2,228 1, ,95 4, ,547 1, , ,266 3, ,64 4, ,95 3, ,491 6,7-5 9,247 7, ,726 8, Balance Sheet NOKm Goodwill Other intangibles Tangible assets Shares associates Interest bearing assets Deferred tax assets Other non-interest bearing non-current assets Other non-current assets Non-current assets 29 2,143 5,41 3, ,9 21 2,112 5,69 3, , ,146 5,578 4, , ,116 5,435 4, ,82 13, ,375 6,36 6, , ,417 6,515 8, , ,48 7,68 9,26 1, , E 2,48 7,68 9,787 1, , E 2,48 7,68 1,368 1, , E 2,48 7,68 1,349 1, ,14 Inventory Accounts receivable Other current assets Cash and cash equivalents Current assets 6,94 2, ,49 8,54 2, ,922 7,68 2, ,872 7,28 2, ,738 11,288 4, ,172 12,415 4,471 1,48 18,294 12,555 5, ,354 12,483 4,43 1,37 18,22 12,61 4,471 1,273 18,345 11,582 3, ,314 Assets held for sale 1,59 19 Total assets 2,39 23,412 22,789 23,318 33,728 36,974 38,316 38,763 39,468 37,418 Shareholders equity Minority interest 11, , , , , , ,169 19,223 2,266 17,986 Deferred tax Convertible debt Long term interest bearing debt Non-current liabilities Pension provisions Other long-term provisions Other long-term liabilities Non-current liabilities 1,143 5, ,367 2,242 5, ,92 2,357 6, ,45 2,544 5, ,297 3,365 7, ,51 3,569 1,669 2,334 16,573 3,252 9,51 1,243 13,996 3,252 9,945 1,243 14,44 3,252 9,589 1,243 14,83 3,252 9,791 1,243 14,286 Short-term provisions Accounts payable Other current liabilities Short term interest bearing debt Current liabilities Liabilities for assets held for sale Total liabilities and equity 2, ,562 2,39 2, ,9 23,412 2, ,96 22,789 2, ,332 23,318 4, , ,728 5, ,684 36,974 6, ,151 38,316 5, ,1 38,763 5, ,116 39,465 4, ,91 37,173 Cash and cash eq (credit adj) Total assets (credit adj) Shareholders equity (credit adj) Debt (credit adj) 172 2,39 11,461 5, ,412 12,592 5, ,789 1,837 7, ,318 11,689 6, ,728 16,346 9,535 1,48 36,974 14,718 12, ,26 18,187 11,773 1,659 4,37 19,153 11,451 1,658 41,84 2,34 11,95-1,41 38,964 18,24 11,297 Nordea Markets 6

7 Marine Harvest 19 February 216 Cash flow statement NOKm EBITDA Adj due to change in group structure Change in Provisions Other non-cash adjustments Net financials Dividends received Paid taxes Other Operating cash flow before NWC Change in NWC Operating cash flow CAPEX Free Operating cash flow Dividends paid Share issues / buybacks Discretionary cash flow Other investments / divestments Other Proceeds from sale of assets Net change to group borrowing/repayments Other Change in cash 29 2, , , , , , ,874-1, , , , ,363 1,52-1, , ,35-1,79 1,956-2, , , ,365-1, , ,433-1,463 1,97-1, , , , ,778 1,26 3,984-1,978 2,6-3,455-1, ,173 2, , ,269-1,128 2,141-1, ,8-1, ,13-1,22 216E 7, ,372 5, ,125-1,8 3,325-3, E 7, ,564 5, ,767-1,8 3,967-3, E 4, ,77 1,415 5,185-1,2 3,985-4, Adjusted metrics Funds from operations (FFO) (adj) Operating cash flow (OCF) (adj) Free operating cash flow (FOCF) (adj) Discretionary cash flow (DCF) (adj) 2,61 2,78 1,492 1,492 4,262 1, ,892 3,38 2, ,71 1, ,529 1, ,189 4,956 3,41 1,63-2,392 4,339 1, ,92 6,99 5,652 3, ,756 5,746 3, ,238 5,52 4, Key ratios Profitability ROC ROIC after tax ROE after tax Debt & Interest coverage FFO/Debt FOCF/Debt DCF/Debt EBITDA interest coverage FFO cash interest coverage Leverage Debt/EBITDA Equity ratio Debt/(Debt+Equity) Capital expenditure CAPEX/Depreciation and amortisation CAPEX/Sales Working capital ratios Inventory turnover (days) Receivables turnover (days) Days sales outstanding (days) Per share data EPS EPS (adj.) DPS BVPS Equity valuation and yield Market cap. Enterprise value P/E P/BV EV/Sales EV/EBITDA Dividend yield Payout ratio % 7.6% 12.3% % 27.2% 27.2% % ,125 2, %.% % 17.6% 26.1% % 11.4% -1.4% % ,57 27, % 4.% % 4.4% 9.5% % 29.5% -7.2% % ,261 15, % 26.3% % 3.4% 3.7% % 1.1% 1.1% % ,192 24, %.% % 1.4% 18.% % -3.8% -12.5% % ,682 34, % 32.8% % 11.3% 6.% % 8.7% -19.7% % ,228 5, % 369.3% % 9.1% 9.3% % -2.5% -17.8% % ,81 56, % 117.6% 216E 17.8% 13.7% 22.% 216E 61.% 33.6% 6.1% E %.4 216E E E E 55,9 62, % 76.6% 217E 22.5% 15.2% 23.8% 217E 78.9% 35.6% 3.5% E %.4 217E E E E 55,9 62, % 75.8% 218E 24.3% 8.6% 13.3% 218E 81.8% 38.2% -3.1% E %.4 218E E E E 55,9 63, % 186.2% Nordea Markets 7

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9 Marine Harvest 19 February 216 Analyst Shareholding Nordea Markets analysts do not hold shares in the companies that they cover. No holdings or other affiliations by analysts or associates. Market-making obligations and other significant financial interest Nordea Markets has no market-making obligations in Marine Harvest. Recommendation definitions Outperform Over the next three months, the fixed income instrument's total return is expected to exceed the total return of the relevant benchmark. Market perform Over the next three months, the fixed income instrument's total return is expected to be below the total return of the relevant benchmark. Investment banking transactions Nordea Markets has no ongoing or completed public investment banking transactions with Marine Harvest. In view of Nordea s position in its markets readers should however assume that the bank may currently or may in the coming three months and beyond be providing or seeking to provide confidential investment banking services to the company/ companies Underperform Over the next three months, the fixed income instrument's total return is expected to be below the total return of the relevant benchmark. All research is produced on an ad hoc basis and will be updated when the circumstances require it. Distribution of recommendations Recommendation Outperform Market perform Under perform Total As of 1 October 215 Count % Distribution 19% 52% 29% 1% Distribution of recommendations (transactions)* Recommendation Outperform Market perform Under perform Count % Distribution Total 28 As of 1 October 215 * Companies under coverage with which Nordea has ongoing or completed public investment banking transactions. 22% 64% 14% 1% Issuer Review This report has not been reviewed by the Issuer prior to publication. Nordea Bank AB (publ) Nordea Bank Danmark A/S Nordea Bank Finland Plc Nordea Bank Norge ASA Nordea Markets Division, Equities Nordea Markets Division, Equities Nordea Markets Division, Equities Nordea Markets Division, Equities Hamngatan 1 Strandgade 3 (PO Box 85) Aleksis Kiven katu 9, Helsinki Essendropsgate 7 SE Stockholm DK-9 Copenhagen C FI-2 Nordea N-368 Oslo Sweden Denmark Finland Norway Tel: Tel: Tel: Tel: Fax: Fax: Fax: Fax: Reg.no Reg.no Reg.no Reg.no Stockholm Copenhagen Helsinki Oslo