NORSK LAKS Q2, OSLO 3.JULY 2014 MARKEDET FOR LAKS I UK. Jack Robert Møller Fiskeriutsending UK, Norges Sjømatråd

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2 NORSK LAKS Q2, OSLO 3.JULY 2014 MARKEDET FOR LAKS I UK Jack Robert Møller Fiskeriutsending UK, Norges Sjømatråd

3 UK- landprofil 64,51 millioner, over 12 millioner i Stor London GDP Vekst i alle kvartaler i 2013, med total 1,8 % I 2013, Vekst også 1 kvartal i 2014, med prognose på 2,9 % i 2014 Arbeidsledighets raten synker, Q er på 6,9 %, som er den laveste på mange år Konsumprisindeksen, CPI er på 1,6 %, laveste siden 2009 Inntekter har økt i gjennomsnitt med 2 % Source: Office for National Statistics, GFK

4 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN GB, FRANCE AND THE USA GREW IN Q1, 2014 Consumer confidence in the USA rose back above the global average. 120 GB Consumer Confidence Index versus Global Average, Neighbouring Countries & USA Q3, 08 Q1, 09 Q2, 09 Q3, 09 Q4, 09 Q1, 10 Q2, 10Q3, 10 Q4, 10 Q1, 11 Q2, 11 Q3, 11 Q4, 11 Q1, 12 Q2, 12 Q3, 12 Q4, 12 Q1, 13 Q2, 13 Q3, 13 Q4, 13 Q1, 14 Global* Average GB France USA Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey GB Q1,

5 NORSK EKSPORT AV LAKS TIL UK Omregnet rund vekt

6 Tonn, rundvekt Verdi 1000 NOK EKSPORT AV LAKS FRA NORGE TIL UK Volum 1. halvår Verdi 1. halvår

7 UK SALMON MARKET FOR SUSHI AND SASHIMI Growing Demand for Salmon Attracts Capital Investment Salmon Market Size by Channel, ( 000 Tonnes WFE) 100,0 90,0 80,0 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 54,1-8,4% 49,6 83,0 6,2% 88,2 8,0% 6,0% 4,0% 2,0% 0,0% -2,0% -4,0% -6,0% -8,0% Key salmon trends Totalmarked 130 til tonn rund vekt 65 % innenfor retail tonn brukes til Sushi Fersk laks også tilgjengelig i hard discount butikker Fersk laks utgjør ca 80 % av omsetningen i retail 0,0 Foodservice Retail -10,0% Retail accounts for majority of salmon volume sales RETAIL The majority of salmon volume sales in the UK are via retail channels, at 65% share in Retail salmon volume sales increased by 6.2% over , in contrast to foodservice sales decline. May MAT +0 til 2 % volume increase Supermarkets/hypermarkets dominate salmon retail sales and accounted for over 87% share of volume in The remaining retail share is split between independent fishmongers with 9% of sales and open markets with 4% share. Full-service restaurants dominate foodservice Foodservice accounted for 36% of total salmon volume consumption in In 2013, the key channels within foodservice are full-service restaurants, accounting for almost 70% of salmon volume sales, followed by fast food with 30% share. FOODSERVICE Source; Euromonitor International

8 TOP 20 SPECIES RETAIL, MAY 2014 Value Sales ( 000's) Value Sales ( 000's) Volume Sales (tonnes) Unit Sales (000's) Average Prices Value % Chg YA Value % Share +/- Value % Share YA Volume Sales (tonnes) Volume % Chg YA Volume % Share +/- Volume % Share YA Unit Sales (000's) Unit % Chg YA Unit % Share +/- Unit % Price per Share YA L/KG FISH 3,173, , ,260, TOTAL SALMON 824, , , TUNA 366, , , COD 338, , , HADDOCK 204, , , WARM WATER PRAWNS 196, , , COLD WATER PRAWNS 171, , , MACKEREL 118, , , POLLOCK 111, , , MEALS-OTHER 91, , , SCAMPI 46, , , MIXED SEAFOOD 39, , , MEALS-COLD WATER PRAWNS 39, , , SEA BASS 36, , , TROUT 34, , , SARDINES 33, , , SOLE 30, , , PLAICE 27, , , BASA 25, , , CRABSTICK 23, , , MUSSELS 21, , , Price pr L/KG % Chg YA Price per Unit Price pr Unit % Chg YA Source: Nielsen, Nielsen Scantrack, and Seafish. Sources: Data ScanTrack to MAT

9 TOTAL COVERAGE PRICE ( /KG) WK YR AGO PREV 4 WKS LAT 4 WKS TOTAL SALMON AMBIENT TOTAL SALMON FRESH TOTAL SALMON FROZEN TOTAL SALMON Source: Nielsen Scantrack

10 Pubs are performing well, but Seafood servings are down in this channel only growing in Full Service Restaurants. Spend Visits Av. Indiv. Spend Seafood Servings Total OOH 50.2bn +1.4% 11bn +/-0% m -3.1% Pubs 10bn +2.3% 1.2bn +2.2% m -8.2% FSR* 11.1bn +0.5% 1.2bn -0.2% m +3.4% QSR** 20bn +1.6% 5.6bn +0.6% m -2.2% Travel & Leisure 7.1bn +2% 1.2bn -1.2% m -2.8% Work/College/Uni 1.5bn -2.7% 1.4bn -1.6% m -8.7% Fish & Chips 1.1bn +1.2% 329m -1.4% m -4.5% *FSR includes Café/Bistro **QSR includes Fish & Chips Source: The NPD Group/CREST, YE Mar '14

11 Poultry and Beef continue to grow, and benefitted from their seasonal nature during winter. Pork s decline continues, whilst Seafood declines again. Total Out of Home (OOH) Servings Share & YOY, and Incidence by Protein % Incidence Change Servings Change (000s) 16,2 Seafood 0.0 (29 907) 27,8 Pork -0.5 ( ) 1,6 Lamb ,1 Beef & Veal ,1 Poultry % Protein Servings ] 11 [ Source: The NPD Group/CREST, YE Mar '14

12 FRIED FISH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. GRILLED SALMON IS INCREASING IN POPULARITY. SHELLFISH IS ON THE WANE SLIGHTLY Total Out of Home (OOH) Servings% Share Seafood Sandwich Other N.F Smoked Salmon Grilled Salmon Mackerel N.F Fish Sandwich Haddock N.F Cod N.F 5 5 Fish Burger Tuna N.F Trout N.F Crabcake / Fishcake YE March 13 YE March Total Shellfish Fish Fingers Non-Fried Fish Fried Haddock Fried Fish Fried Cod YE March 13 YE March 14 YE March 13 YE March 14 ] 12 [ Source: The NPD Group/CREST, YE Mar '14

13 LAKS TOTALT HJEMMEKONSUM UK Volume Trip Change Frequency Change Penetration Change Price Change Value Change

14 DEMAND ELASTICITY UK Table. Estimated I ncome Elasticity and M arshallian Price Ealsicity (AIDS model with data 2005:M 1~2014:M 5) Income Own-Price Cross price elasticity, w.r.t. Species Elasticity Elasticity Cod Haddock Salmon Cod Haddock Salmon Analysis: Only salmon is a luxury good (income elasticity = 1.14, greater than one) ; Salmon responds weakly to cod and haddock prices (elasticities = 0.16 and 0.21, respectively). By comparison, cod and haddock are strong substitutes, noting the great cross-price elasticities (i.e and 0.79). Since salmon demand is inelastic (i.e. 0.81), reducing price cannot lead to an increased volume enough to improve revenue. Kilde; Capia

15 Demand Elasticity (absolute value) TIME-VARYING DEMAND ELASTICITY (ABSOLUTE VALUE) UK Salmon Monthly Demand Elasticity (absolute value) Analysis: Salmon has become more sensitive to its own price changes. Source; Capia 2005:M1 2006:M1 2007:M1 2008:M1 2009:M1 2010:M1 2011:M1 2012:M1 2013:M1 2014:M1 2014:M5

16 FMCG Essential Retail What YOU need to know! Share of Trade 52 we data to Share of Total Grocers Value Change % Penetration Spend per Visit % % 2014 Change Change % 29.6% -0.6% % % 16.5% 16.3% 1.2% % % 15.5% 15.3% 1.0% % % 11.9% 11.4% -1.6% % % 5.5% 5.4% 0.3% % % 4.0% 5.3% 34.4% % % 4.9% 5.2% 8.2% % % 3.4% 3.5% 4.7% % % 2.8% 3.3% 20.0% % % Store Portfolio 2.5% 2.5% 3.6% % % Store Numbers as of Store Numbers Total Convenience Small Large Super Mega Share of Retail sale in % FMCG Seafood Salmon COD Tesco 29,6 24,3 25,7 24,8 Sainsbury 16,3 17,5 19,7 16,4 ASDA 15,3 10,9 9,1 11,1 Morrisons 11, ,5 Waitrose 5,2 7,8 9,5 6,3 M&S 3,5 8 8,7 5,5 Aldi 5,3 5,1 6,2 8,1 Lidl 3,3 2,7 2,5 1,6 Source: Nielsen Homescan SOT based on FMCG [New Base], Benchmark Total Grocers % Change Penetration = % Change in actual buyers

17 TESCO ASDA MORRISONS SAINSBURY CO-OP WAITROSE M&S ICELAND ALDI LIDL FARMFOODS SHARE OF TRADE TOTAL SALMON TOTAL SALMON - 52 WK VALUE - SHARE OF TRADE MAY MAY 2014 Source: Nielsen Homescan

18 CONSUMPTION OF SEAFOOD SALMON IS THE MOST COMMONLY CONSUMED SEAFOOD COMPARED TO COD, HADDOCK AND PRAWNS. 37% EAT SALMON ONCE A EK OR MORE OFTEN. High frequency consumers Salmon Prawns Twice a week or more often Around once a week 2-3 times a month Cod Around once a month 4-8 timea a year Haddock N= % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % 60 % 70 % 80 % 90 % 100 % 1-3 times a year Never Don't know Percent of high frequency consumers of salmon per segment

19 SALMON CONSUMPTION PLAIN FILLETS ARE THE MOST POPULAR Salmon filets were the most common salmon producted purchased by respondents in the quantitative research 58% in total % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % 60 % 70 % 80 % 90 % 100 % Whole filet Pre-packed fillet Steak cuts Whole fish Pre-packed steaks Loins Other No preference N=573 The quantitative data followed the same pattern as the qualitative research, respondents usually buy fresh salmon; filet (whole or prepacked) are what most people prefer. Only 7% prefer to buy a whole fresh salmon. In the qualitative research; In London, the younger age category bought salmon fillets in small quantities as generally, they only cook for themselves and maybe one or two others (flat mate, partners). Some participants with families in London and Birmingham bought the whole fish and cut it into portions. Some of the main reasons for participants buying the whole salmon were because it was cheaper than buying multiple fillets and because it allows them to cut their own portion size. Other reasons to buy the whole fish were: if it was on offer, at Christmas, for a special occasion such as a dinner party, bbq with family and friends, when they have been to a wholesaler such as Costco (rather than the supermarket where they usually buy salmon fillets from). 19

20 SHOPPING BEHAVIOUR: THE FRESHNESS OF THE SALMON AND VALUE FOR MONEY ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT ELEMENTS WHEN PURCHASING SALMON Q: When you are purchasing salmon, which of the following elements are important for you? The freshness of the salmon Value for money Sell by and use by date Being able to see the salmon through any packaging The size/thickness of the salmon cut Free from skin and bones Firmness/texture Package size Country of origin The redness in colour of the salmon Wild Pre-packed The brand Farmed Other Do not know N=

21 SALMON S DRIVER PROFILE SALMON IS CONSIDERED AS FAMILY FRIENDLY FOOD. SERVING SALMON IS CARING FOR OTHER PEOPLE (FOR THEIR LL-BEING). IT IS SAFE MEAL TO SERVE BECAUSE EVERYBODY LIKES SALMON. THE FAMILY ASPECT IN COMMUNICATION AND PRODUCT INNOVATION MIGHT AFFECT THE CONSUMPTION IN FUTURE. The drivers relative strength: 100% Family friendly* 80% Tastes good Salmon consumption 64% Reasonable priced Drivers with less strength/not significant: Healthy Environmentally friendly Looks appealing A ccountry I trust Contains Omega 3 Sustainability Meaty fish Available in shop Easy Filling food Safe Fresh Quick Not fishy CoO of salmon Versatile *An index made of «Family likes salmon» and «Salmon is child friendly»

22 Consumer importance evaluation SALMON DRIVER MATRIX UK, % 70% Hygiene factors Drivers Taste 60% Health 50% 40% Easy Quick 30% Lean ns. 20% Safe 10% Environment ns. Inspiring Let it be! Posibility 0% 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 Driver effect on seafood consumer frequency β-value Quick Easy Inspiring Taste Health Lean ns. Safe Environment ns. ns. = not significant Q23: There are many good reasons for choosing fish/seafood. Some of them are listed below. Which of these would you say are good reasons for choosing fish/seafood for yourself? Choose up to 5. (Multi, fixed alternatives). Q5: How often do you eat the following fish/seafood? Salmon Seafood Consumer Insight (SCI) - Source: TNS Gallup/NSC Method: Ordinal logistic regression N=1010 Cutoff: Value for money, Family likes it, Other and Don t know Countries: UK Filters: None Question: Q24, Q23

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