Patterns of higher education institutions in the UK:

Transcription

1 Patterns of higher education institutions in the UK: Seventh report

2 This publication has been supported by Embargo til 00:00 hrs Thursday 13 September 2007

3 Patterns of higher education institutions in the UK: Seventh report A report by Professor Brian Ramsden on behalf of the Longer Term Strategy Group of Universities UK

4 Introduction This report is the seventh in a series published annually by Universities UK, with the support of GuildHE, updating and expanding a rich variety of data about higher education institutions in the UK. The Patterns series The Patterns series examines trends in UK higher education at both a macro and an institutional level. We have built up a 10-year time series of information that has proved to be very useful to senior managers in the sector as well as being drawn upon by many outside higher education. In addition, each report has focused on a particular issue of immediate interest. Universities UK published the first Patterns report in 2001 and this looked at consolidation and collaboration within the higher education sector following the abolition of the binary line. The second Patterns report focused on diversity in the sector s activities and provision, while the third report focused on the concept of differentiation in other words, the planned positioning of institutions within the higher education sector. The fourth report examined regional issues, while the fifth extended the geographical analysis by reporting on the relationship between UK higher education institutions and other countries, both within and outside the European Union. The sixth report, published last year, provided an analysis of various aspects of the student experience and how it has changed over time. The seventh report This seventh report follows the established format of the Patterns series. Section A looks at macro-level trends over a 10-year period from 1996/97 to 2005/06 and provides the context for the findings about institutions. Section B looks at patterns of institutional diversity and updates information on higher education institutions provided in the earlier Patterns reports. Section C focuses on strategic subjects, which Universities UK s Longer Term Strategy Group has been looking at this year, and examines trends in a range of subjects that may be considered both strategically important and potentially vulnerable to changing patterns of student demand. A wide range of fascinating data is presented in this report. I shall draw attention to some of the key findings here. Growth in higher education enrolments Across the UK, enrolments in higher education institutions have increased by 33 per cent in the 10-year period from 1996/97 to 2005/06. The greatest increases, of around 50 per cent, have been at postgraduate level and in part-time undergraduate enrolments. It will be interesting to see the figures for 2006/07, particularly those for parttime enrolments, because student funding and support arrangements changed significantly in that year, with the introduction of a framework of new loans, grants and bursaries that has not been matched for those studying parttime. Our annual publication Monitoring the Impact of Variable Fees is giving data that will enable us to monitor these changes along with other indicators. How are students choosing to study? The increase in part-time student numbers to an extent relates to changes in definitions and data collection, but there is still a clear trend where those institutions that already have significant part-time numbers are expanding this provision. As earlier Patterns reports noted, and our research Part-time students in higher education (2006) has shown, there is no typical part-time student. They include those on undergraduate and postgraduate degree programmes as well as students following courses of personal and professional development that may be at either level, and that encompass a broad range of structures and content. Part-time study already plays an important role in meeting the higher level skills agenda and contributing to lifelong learning and this will increasingly be the case if the sector is to expand to the extent proposed by the Leitch review, in the context of a decrease in the number of 18-year olds after Universities UK Patterns of higher education institutions in the UK Seventh report

5 What are students choosing to study? Over the decade from 1996/97 to 2005/06 there have been significant changes in the subjects that students are studying. In particular we see enrolments increasing in subjects allied to medicine (much of it accounted for by the shift of the funding of nursing courses into higher education), biological sciences (primarily microbiology and psychology), mathematical sciences, computer science, law, mass communication and documentation, historical and philosophical studies and creative arts and design (which also includes music, drama and film). Enrolments in architecture, building and planning, agriculture, the physical sciences and engineering and technology have failed to rise at the speed of enrolments as a whole. There have, of course, been trends that are masked by simply looking at the start and end years, such as a dip in mathematics enrolments during the period from which recent years have seen a recovery, and the recent downward trend in computer science numbers which are nonetheless still significantly above those 10 years ago. EU and international students It is clear from the analysis in this report that the UK is continuing to attract students from across the world. In the 10-year period from 1996/97 to 2005/06 non-eu international student enrolments have more than doubled. China remains the most significant provider of students to UK higher education across most levels of study. India features very strongly among taught postgraduate students, and students from the United States are also prominent, especially at other undergraduate and postgraduate levels. In all these areas UK higher education is, of course, facing increasing competition. The market for transnational education is, however, expanding, and it will be interesting to see in future Patterns whether the growth in non-eu international student numbers is sustained. Enrolments from EU students have also seen a greater rate of growth in 2005/06 than that for UK-domiciled students, and the enlargement of the EU will have had a good deal to do with this. We still receive many students from the Republic of Ireland, especially at taught postgraduate level. The number of institutions with very large numbers of students from outside the UK has grown significantly. In 2001/02, there were just three institutions with more than 5,000 students from outside the UK. By 2005/06 that had risen to 14. Diversity in the student population The student population is diverse and some continuing trends are revealed in the report including increasing proportions of mature students and students from ethnic minority and lower socio-economic groups. Nonetheless, there remain significant areas of under-representation that relate to patterns established earlier in the education system. Turning to gender, once again we see that female students are in the majority at all modes and levels. The proportion of students enrolled in higher education institutions who are male has declined by at least four percentage points and in some instances considerably more over the 10-year period from 1996/97 to 2005/06. This is an international phenomenon that in many ways reflects the differential progression and achievement levels of boys earlier in the educational system. There are however considerable variations between institutions, which may partly reflect the subject mix of different institutions. It is only among full-time postgraduates (who are dominated by non-uk students) that male students approach parity. Another continuing trend is the increasing concentration of students from ethnic minority groups in a limited number of institutions. It is intriguing to note that this is more to do with geography than type of institution: 17 out of 20 institutions with the highest percentages of students from ethnic minority groups are in London. Universities UK Patterns of higher education institutions in the UK Seventh report 3

6 Financial issues From 2000/01 to 2005/06 the sector as a whole has seen an increase of approximately 45 per cent in its overall income and in most of its components: only endowment and investment income shows a markedly lower rate of growth, very close to the rate of inflation. The significant increase in tuition fee income is, to a considerable extent, attributable to the fees of international (non-eu) students, which have doubled over the period and now amount to 1.5 billion. In addition public funding has been stabilised following the erosion in the unit of funding that took place in the 1990s. As regards the surplus and deficit account, across the sector as a whole the median figure of 2.1 per cent surplus continues to be well below the three to five per cent recommended by the funding councils for sustainability. The report also looks at liquidity, which shows a slight improvement, and retention of reserves, which shows a large and essentially technical reduction due to the fact that institutions are now required to include pensions within their general funds and most have a net pensions liability. This year, for the first time, we have included an analysis of long-term borrowing in relation to institutional income, which shows a very large range from zero to 80 per cent of annual income. It will be interesting to see whether there are any significant changes in the level of borrowing over the next few years. The more diverse income portfolio of 21st century universities and improvements in risk management, together with the attractiveness of universities in the eyes of financial institutions, makes them more able to borrow to support significant infrastructure projects. It might, however, be argued that one of the reasons that institutions have undertaken more borrowing in recent years is under-funding, particularly low levels of capital funding: as funding levels improve we may see institutions investing more from their own resources. The analysis of funding of research through the dual support system demonstrates the concentration of research funding in a relatively small number of higher education institutions. In addition, for the second time, the report shows that the majority of higher education institutions receive more income from research grants and contracts than from research funding provided through the funding councils. Strategic subjects In its special focus, this seventh report provides us with an analysis of strategic subjects, that is to say subjects that are deemed to be of national importance - be it economic, social or geopolitical importance - but where there are fluctuations in the supply of graduates that cause concern. Universities UK s Longer Term Strategy Group held a seminar earlier this year to explore the complexities of a topic that has often generated more heat than light, and it attempted to take a longer-term view of the issues involved. The seminar examined the difficulties of data, the growing provision outside traditional disciplinary structures, the different reasons why we might designate certain subjects as of strategic importance, and the relative importance of supply and demand, as well as considering the role and responsibilities of the different players. The data provided in this report are perhaps not entirely surprising, but provide an interesting basis on which to examine strategic subjects. The analysis here concentrates on full-time students, as the way data have been collected over time for part-time students makes comparisons difficult. However, we should not forget that in many of these subjects the part-time market is very important. The data show fluctuations in enrolments in the selected strategic subjects rather than clear trends over the period. For example, biological sciences and some aspects of engineering and technology experienced a downturn between 1996/97 and 2001/02 but have picked up more recently. Languages generally show a positive picture at undergraduate level, but deteriorating demand at postgraduate level. Some data are presented on A- level entries for the 10-year period between 1996 and 2006 which generally confirm the trends in higher education enrolments. The implication is that the weakening of demand arises earlier in the education system and are essentially confirmed at the higher education level. 4 Universities UK Patterns of higher education institutions in the UK Seventh report

7 A particularly interesting finding is that these subjects have higher levels of enrolment from non-uk students than is generally the case: 21 per cent of students in these subjects are from outside the UK. High levels of enrolments from international non-eu students appear particularly in engineering and technology, agricultural sciences and some aspects of biological sciences. Students from other EU countries are prominent in some minority languages. Non-UK students are particularly prominent at postgraduate level, making up 71 per cent of taught postgraduate enrolments and 48 per cent on research programmes in 2005/06. This analysis shows again the importance of international students (EU and non-eu) not just for the financial health of UK higher education, but also for the renewal of disciplines. We cannot assume that these trends will continue. The analysis looks at trends in enrolments from outside the UK and finds that international non-eu enrolments in these subjects are in line with the trends in other subjects, whereas enrolments from EU countries (other than the UK) show a decline in these strategic subjects from 2001/02 to 2005/06. The report also looks at UCAS applications for full-time study, where most of the selected subjects show reduction in applicants in the period from 1996 to 2006, with some exceptions (including Asian languages, psychology, electronic and electrical engineering, and mathematics). The number of institutions teaching each subject reveals a variable picture, and this is a complex issue, as the Longer Term Strategy Group discovered at its seminar. Institutions are expected and indeed need to respond to demand, and any discussion about strategic subjects must take a broader view of the nature of provision, the opportunities for collaboration and the appropriate number and regional distribution of departments. Much more rich material is to be found in the full report. I would like once again to thank Professor Brian Ramsden for continuing to provide this fascinating insight into the patterns of higher education institutions in the UK. We are also delighted to thank our sponsors Eversheds, who have much experience of providing legal advice to the higher education sector, for their association with this year s Patterns report. Professor Geoffrey Crossick Warden, Goldsmiths, University of London, and Chair, Universities UK Longer Term Strategy Group September 2007 Universities UK Patterns of higher education institutions in the UK Seventh report 5

8 Table of contents Embargo til 00:00 hrs Thursday 13 September 2007 Introduction...2 Index of tables...7 Index of charts...8 Index of institutional distribution charts...9 Section A: Trends in UK higher education...11 Enrolments...11 Enrolments by gender...15 Enrolments by subject...17 Changes in subject balance of full-time first degree students...22 Trends in EU and international enrolments...24 Trends in income...26 Section B: Patterns of institutional diversity...28 Number of institutions in the sector...28 Balance of provision...29 Student characteristics and outcomes...33 Aspects of staffing in higher education institutions...40 Financial issues...41 Section C: Issues concerned with strategic subjects...51 Identifying strategic subjects...51 Enrolment trends in selected subjects...53 Enrolments by country of the UK...56 Students by international domicile...59 A-level entries...64 Applications for full-time undergraduate study through the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service...68 Numbers of institutions teaching each subject...70 Academic staffing...72 Employment of graduates...74 Conclusion...76 Appendices...77 Appendix 1: Total enrolments by subject of study, 1996/97 and 2005/ Appendix 2: Enrolments of students from outside the UK, by country and level of study, 2005/ Appendix 3: Trends in sources of income to higher education institutions, 2000/01, 2004/05, and 2005/ Appendix 4: Mergers within the higher education sector, 1994/95 to 2005/ Appendix 5: Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) cost centres Universities UK Patterns of higher education institutions in the UK Seventh report

9 Index of tables Table 1 Enrolments in higher education institutions by country on higher education and further education programmes, 1996/97 to 2005/ Table 2 Enrolments in higher education within higher education and further education institutions, 2004/ Table 3 Enrolments by mode and level, 1996/97, 2004/05 and 2005/ Table 4 Overall change by mode and level, 1996/97 to 2005/ Table 5 Enrolments by level and gender, 2005/ Table 6 Enrolments by level and gender, 2004/ Table 7 Enrolments by level and gender, 1996/ Table 8 Enrolments by subject area, 2004/05 and 2005/ Table 9 Enrolments by subject area, 1996/97 and 2005/06 (adjusted)...18 Table 10 Enrolments of students by domicile, 1996/97, 2004/05 and 2005/ Table 11 Major countries supplying students to UK higher education institutions, by level of study, 2005/ Table 12 Main sources of income to UK higher education institutions, 2000/01, 2004/05 and 2005/06, K (cash terms)...26 Table 13 Classification of National Statistics Socio-Economic groups...35 Table 14 Full-time students by level, 2005/06, and percentage change since 1996/ Table 15 Selected subjects: percentage change in full-time enrolments by level, 1996/97 to 2005/06 and 2001/02 to 2005/ Table 16 Percentage enrolments of full-time students by UK country in selected subjects, 2005/ Table 17 Percentage change in enrolments in selected subjects, 1996/97 to 2005/ Table 18 Percentage change in enrolments in selected subjects, 2001/02 to 2005/ Table 19 Percentage of full-time enrolments by domicile, 2005/ Table 20 Percentage enrolments of full-time postgraduate research students by domicile, selected subjects and all subjects, 2005/ Table 21 Percentage enrolments of full-time postgraduate taught students by domicile, selected subjects and all subjects, 2005/ Table 22 Percentage enrolments of full-time undergraduate students by domicile, selected subjects and all subjects, 2005/ Table 23 Percentage change in enrolments on selected subjects and all subjects by domicile over 10 and five years (2001/02 to 2005/06 and 1996/97 to 2005/06) Table 24 Applicants and acceptances in selected subjects, 1996, 2001 and 2006 entry...69 Table 25 Numbers of institutions with enrolments in selected subjects, 1996/97, 2001/02 and 2005/ Table 26 Change in numbers of institutions with enrolments in selected subjects, 1996/97 to 2005/06 and 2001/02 to 2005/ Table 27 Academic staff full-time equivalents in selected cost centres, 1996/97 and 2005/06 and percentage change...72 Table 28 Academic staff qualifications by discipline: selected subjects, 1995/96 and 2005/06 with percentage change...73 Table 29 Percentage of graduates assumed unemployed in selected subjects and all subjects 2000/01 and 2004/ Universities UK Patterns of higher education institutions in the UK Seventh report 7

10 Index of charts Chart 1 Percentage male students by mode and level, 1996/97 and 2005/ Chart 2 Percentage change in enrolments by subject area, 1996/97 to 2005/ Chart 3 Percentage full-time first degree students in each subject area, 1994/95 to 2005/ Chart 4 Percentage of enrolments by domicile, 2005/ Chart 5 A-level entries in biological sciences, England, 1996 to Chart 6 A-level entries in chemistry, England,1996 to Chart 7 A-level entries in physics, England, 1996 to Chart 8 A-level entries in mathematics, England,1996 to Chart 9 A-level entries in computer science, England,1996 to Chart 10 A-level entries in French, England,1996 to Chart 11 A-level entries in German, England, 1996 to Universities UK Patterns of higher education institutions in the UK Seventh report

11 Index of institutional distribution charts Institutional chart 1 Percentage of students following postgraduate programmes, 2005/ Institutional chart 2 Absolute numbers of postgraduate enrolments, 2005/ Institutional chart 3 Absolute numbers of undergraduate enrolments, 2005/ Institutional chart 4 Percentage of enrolments following undergraduate programmes not directly leading to first degrees, 2005/ Institutional chart 5 Percentage of part-time enrolments, 2005/ Institutional chart 6 Enrolments of EU (non-uk) and international domiciled students, 2005/ Institutional chart 7 Enrolments of international (non EU) domiciled students, 2005/ Institutional chart 8 Enrolments of EU (excluding UK) domiciled students, 2005/ Institutional chart 9 Percentage of mature full-time undergraduates, 2005/ Institutional chart 10 Percentage of male students, 2005/ Institutional chart 11 Percentage of UK-domiciled entrants from ethnic minority groups, 2005/ Institutional chart 12 Percentage of young full-time first degree entrants from National Statistics Socio-Economic Classification classes 4, 5, 6 and 7, 2005/ Institutional chart 13 Percentage of young full-time first degree entrants from low participation neighbourhoods, 2005/ Institutional chart 14 Average tariff points of entrants to full-time undergraduate courses, 2005/ Institutional chart 15 Percentage of first class degrees awarded, 2005/ Institutional chart 16 Percentage of first and upper second class degrees awarded, 2005/ Institutional chart 17 Percentage of first degree full-time graduates not unemployed, 2004/ Institutional chart 18 Number of cost centres within which staff are employed, 2005/ Institutional chart 19 Percentage of female academic staff, 2005/ Institutional chart 20 Percentage of ethnic minorities among academic staff, 2005/ Institutional chart 21 Surplus/deficit as a percentage of income, 2005/ Institutional chart 22 Days ratio of net liquid assets to total expenditure, 2005/ Institutional chart 23 Days ratio of total general funds to total expenditure, 2005/ Institutional chart 24 The security index, 2005/ Institutional chart 25 Percentage ratio of total long-term borrowings to total income, 2005/ Institutional chart 26 Funding council income as a percentage of all income, 2005/ Institutional chart 27 Funding of research through the dual support system ( K), 2005/ Institutional chart 28 Funding of research through the dual support system as a percentage of all income, 2005/ Institutional chart 29 Research grants and contracts as a percentage of funding council research grant, 2005/ Institutional chart 30 Income for other services rendered ( K), 2005/ Institutional chart 31 Income from international (non-eu) student fees ( K), 2005/ Institutional chart 32 Administrative costs per full-time equivalent student ( ), 2004/ Institutional chart 33 Academic departmental costs per full-time equivalent student, excluding academic staff ( ), 2004/ Institutional chart 34 Total academic services expenditure per full-time equivalent student ( ), 2004/ Institutional chart 35 Premises expenditure per full-time equivalent student ( ), 2004/ Universities UK Patterns of higher education institutions in the UK Seventh report 9

12 10 Universities UK Patterns of higher education institutions in the UK Seventh report

13 Section A: Trends in UK higher education 1. This section sets out some of the major trends in higher education in the United Kingdom (UK) during the last 10 years from 1996/97 to 2005/06, drawing extensively on data published during that period by the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA). 1 Enrolments 2. Before looking at enrolments on higher education programmes, it should be noted that there is a small percentage of students in higher education institutions who are following programmes at further education level. Table 1 shows the figures for enrolments at higher education and further education levels in 2005/06 and comparisons with 1996/97 and 2004/05. Table 1 Enrolments in higher education institutions by country on higher education (HE) and further education (FE) programmes, 1996/97 to 2005/06 United Northern Year Kingdom England Wales Scotland Ireland 1996/97 Total all students 1,797,081 1,497,148 96, ,521 39,690 Total HE students 1,756,179 1,458,684 94, ,116 39,690 Total FE students 40,902 38,464 2, FE students as % of total 2.3% 2.6% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 2004/05 Total all students 2,423,590 2,024, , ,745 54,495 Total HE students 2,287,540 1,895, , ,600 54,495 Total FE students 136, ,250 7, FE students as % of total 5.6% 6.3% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0% 2005/06 Total all students 2,459,895 2,051, , ,880 54,625 Total HE students 2,336,110 1,936, , ,830 54,625 Total FE students 123, ,205 8, FE students as % of total 5.0% 5.6% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% HE percentage change 1996/97 to 2005/06 33% 33% 36% 32% 38% HE percentage change 2004/05 to 2005/06 2% 2% 2% 2% 0% FE percentage change 1996/97 to 2005/06 203% 200% 320% -88% n/a FE percentage change 2004/05 to 2005/06-9% -10% 11% -66% n/a 1 Almost all of the statistical information within this report has been drawn from HESA publications: in particular, it draws on the CD-Rom publications HE Finance Plus and HE Planning Plus, and also the Higher Education Management Statistics at institutional level and the volumes of Students and Resources of Higher Education Institutions. The presentation of figures within the tables conforms to HESA s conventions for the year in question: for example, numbers for the year 2005/06 are rounded to the nearest five. All HESA publications are published by the Higher Education Statistics Agency Limited, 95 Promenade, Cheltenham, GL50 1HZ, telephone +44 (0) : further details are available at Universities UK Patterns of higher education institutions in the UK Seventh report 11

14 3. As was noted in previous Patterns reports, the growth in the numbers and proportion of students following further education programmes in England and Wales (in which it is exclusively concentrated) over the last 10 years arose partly because of the incorporation of former further education institutions within a small number of higher education institutions, and partly from a data definitional change adopted by HESA in consultation with the UK education departments and funding councils. This change to the definition of the standard population, introduced in and used in analysis by HESA, involves counting more students following short courses. It is believed to be a better way of capturing the totality of provision within higher education institutions The growth of enrolments in further education courses at higher education institutions is now seen to have been reversed in England, although there is still some growth in Wales. 5. Enrolments of higher education students are seen to have increased by 33 per cent overall over the 10 year period from 1996/97 to 2005/06, but by a greater percentage in Wales and Northern Ireland. 6. Changes in data definitions have also had an impact on the counting of higher education students across years. If consistent definitions are used, the growth in higher education enrolments overall amounts to approximately 27 per cent over the period 1996/97 to 2005/ It should be noted that while this report analyses students enrolled within chiefly publicly-funded higher education institutions, it does not generally cover students following courses at higher education level in further education institutions or in privately funded higher education institutions. 8. Consequently, a significant number of students following higher education programmes in Scotland and Northern Ireland are excluded from this analysis, since there is a far higher proportion of students within those countries who begin or undertake their higher education experience within further education colleges, as is illustrated in Table 2. Table 2 Enrolments in higher education level courses within higher education and further education institutions, 2004/05 Country Higher education Further education All institutions institutions institutions Percentage in further Total student education Full-time Part-time Full-time Part-time Full-time Part-time enrolments institutions England 1,135, ,045 33,975 91,495 1,169, ,540 2,021, % Scotland 146,645 63,955 25,130 27, ,775 91, , % Wales 73,635 52, ,990 53, , % Northern Ireland 35,445 19,050 4,935 8,865 40,380 27,915 68, % United Kingdom 1,391, ,040 64, ,210 1,455,900 1,024,250 2,480, % 9. It should be noted that this table is not available for 2005/06 but the clear trend in relation to the provision of higher education courses is that a smaller proportion is being provided directly in further education colleges. Overall, the percentage of higher education students being taught in further education colleges across the UK as a whole has reduced from over nine per cent in 2001/02 to 7.8 per cent in 2004/05, with only Northern Ireland showing an increase in the latest available year although 20 per cent of higher education enrolments in Scotland continue to be within further education colleges. 2 For more information, see 12 Universities UK Patterns of higher education institutions in the UK Seventh report

15 10. Overall, across the UK, 12.5 per cent of part-time higher education enrolments are in further education colleges: in Scotland, the figure is over 30 per cent. However, it should be noted that the definitions of fulltime study in further education colleges varies across countries. The statistics would be more robust if common definitions were adopted. 11. Registrations on programmes at further education level within higher education institutions and on programmes at higher education level within further education institutions are excluded from the further analyses within this report, which concentrates on higher education enrolments at higher education institutions. 12. There is also no analysis of students following courses in privately funded higher education institutions, since there is currently no process for collecting data on a consistent basis from those institutions Turning now to higher education student enrolments, Table 3 shows enrolments at undergraduate and postgraduate level, by UK country of institution and by mode of study in 2005/06, with comparisons with 1996/97 and 2004/05. Table 3 Enrolments by mode and level, 1996/97, 2004/05 and 2005/06 Year Level of Mode of United Northern study study Kingdom England Wales Scotland Ireland 1996/97 Postgraduate Full-time 140, ,729 7,030 14,955 3,195 Part-time 222, ,358 10,449 22,539 6,317 Total 363, ,087 17,479 37,494 9,512 Undergraduate Full-time 997, ,138 57, ,500 22,831 Part-time 394, ,459 20,018 15,122 7,347 Total 1,392,607 1,159,597 77, ,622 30,178 All students Full-time 1,138, ,867 64, ,455 26,026 Part-time 617, ,817 30,467 37,661 13,664 Total 1,756,179 1,458,684 94, ,116 39,690 Percentage postgraduate 20.7% 20.5% 18.5% 23.0% 24.0% 2004/05 Postgraduate Full-time 226, ,660 9,800 21,430 4,165 Part-time 306, ,780 13,830 28,465 7,495 Total 532, ,440 23,630 49,895 11,660 Undergraduate Full-time 1,165, ,120 63, ,215 31,280 Part-time 589, ,260 39,155 35,490 11,560 Total 1,754,905 1,448, , ,705 42,840 All students Full-time 1,391,500 1,135,780 73, ,645 35,445 Part-time 896, ,040 52,985 63,955 19,055 Total 2,287,535 1,895, , ,600 54,500 Percentage postgraduate 23.3% 23.6% 18.7% 23.7% 21.4% 2005/06 Postgraduate Full-time 234, ,735 10,210 23,290 3,990 Part-time 311, ,705 15,065 30,695 7,680 Total 545, ,440 25,275 53,985 11,670 Undergraduate Full-time 1,198, ,815 64, ,535 31,690 Part-time 591, ,165 39,175 36,310 11,270 Total 1,790,745 1,481, , ,845 42,960 All students Full-time 1,433,040 1,173,550 74, ,825 35,680 Part-time 903, ,870 54,240 67,005 18,950 Total 2,336,115 1,936, , ,830 54,630 Percentage postgraduate 23.3% 23.5% 19.6% 25.0% 21.4% 3 With the exception of the University of Buckingham, which has been included in HESA data since 2004/05. Universities UK Patterns of higher education institutions in the UK Seventh report 13

16 14. The change over time in these enrolment statistics is summarised in Table 4. Table 4 Overall change by mode and level, 1996/97 to 2005/06 United Northern Kingdom England Wales Scotland Ireland Overall changes % change in enrolments of postgraduates, 1996/97 to 2005/ % 51.9% 44.6% 44.0% 22.7% % change in enrolments of postgraduates, 2004/05 to 2005/06 2.4% 1.6% 7.0% 8.2% 0.1% % change in enrolments of undergraduates, 1996/97 to 2005/ % 27.8% 34.6% 28.8% 42.4% % change in enrolments of undergraduates, 2004/05 to 2005/06 2.0% 2.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% % change in all students, 1996/97 to 2005/ % 32.8% 36.5% 32.3% 37.6% % change in all students, 2004/05 to 2005/06 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.5% 0.2% Change in part-time numbers % change in enrolments of part-time postgraduates, 1996/97 to 2005/ % 40.5% 44.2% 36.2% 21.6% % change in enrolments of part-time postgraduates, 2004/05 to 2005/06 1.5% 0.4% 8.9% 7.8% 2.5% % change in enrolments of part-time undergraduates, 1996/97 to 2005/ % 43.3% 95.7% 140.1% 53.4% % change in enrolments of part-time undergraduates, 2004/05 to 2005/06 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 2.3% -2.5% Change in full-time numbers % change in enrolments of full-time postgraduates, 1996/97 to 2005/ % 70.0% 45.2% 55.7% 24.9% % change in enrolments of full-time postgraduates, 2004/05 to 2005/06 3.6% 3.2% 4.2% 8.7% -4.2% % change in enrolments of full-time undergraduates, 1996/97 to 2005/ % 21.0% 13.3% 13.6% 38.8% % change in enrolments of full-time undergraduates, 2004/05 to 2005/06 2.9% 3.4% 1.5% 0.3% 1.3% 15. Overall, there has been an increase in all student enrolments from 1996/97 to 2005/06 of 33 per cent. 16. This compares to a corresponding increase of 50 per cent at postgraduate level and 29 per cent at undergraduate level over the same period. The increase is marked at postgraduate level in England, and at undergraduate level in Wales and Northern Ireland. 17. These figures show a similar overall percentage change from 1996/97 to 2005/06 to that which was reported in last year s Patterns report, which looked at the change between 1995/96 and 2004/05; although this latest set of figures shows a greater increase at postgraduate level over the 10-year period from 1996/97 to 2005/ When the figures are disaggregated by mode, there is a noticeably greater increase in the number of parttime enrolments than full-time enrolments at undergraduate level. However, the increase in the number of full-time postgraduates significantly exceeds that of part-time postgraduates. 19. While a significant proportion of the growth in part-time undergraduates can be attributed to a structural cause (the mainstreaming of the former continuing education courses in the pre-1992 universities in 1994/95), there is in fact a generally greater increase across the whole of the period in part-time enrolments as compared with full-time enrolments. However, again it is important to take into account the re-definition of the HESA standard population, which reports greater numbers following short part-time courses. This has had a major effect on the year-to-year shift since the year 1999/ Universities UK Patterns of higher education institutions in the UK Seventh report

17 20. The percentage change in enrolments at all levels from 2004/05 to 2005/06 has been small, although we observe a significant increase in postgraduate numbers in Wales and Scotland. 21. In summary, an overall rise in enrolments of 33 per cent from 1996/97 to 2005/06 masks the fact that there have been greater increases in the numbers of postgraduates compared with undergraduates, and in parttime undergraduates compared with full-time. Enrolments by gender 22. The last Patterns report provided information about the trend in student enrolments in higher education institutions by gender. This information is extended in the following series of tables, which map the trend by mode and level over 10 years. Table 5 looks at enrolments by level and gender for 2005/06. Table 5 Enrolments by level and gender, 2005/06 Percentage Level and mode of study Total Female Male male Full-time students Postgraduate 234, , , % First degree 1,073, , , % Other undergraduate 125,040 85,675 39, % Total full-time 1,433, , , % Part-time students Postgraduate 311, , , % First degree 205, ,130 79, % Other undergraduate 386, , , % Total part-time 903, , , % 23. It is seen that female students are in the majority at all modes and levels, and it is only among full-time postgraduates (which are dominated by non-uk students) that male students approach parity. 24. Comparative figures for the previous academic year are set out in Table 6, from which it can be seen that there is a small but perceptible reduction in the proportion of male enrolments between the two years, especially among full-time students. Table 6 Enrolments by level and gender, 2004/05 Percentage Level and mode of study Total Female Male male Full-time students Postgraduate 226, , , % First degree 1,039, , , % Other undergraduate 126,310 85,565 40, % Total full-time 1,391, , , % Part-time students Postgraduate 306, , , % First degree 198, ,030 78, % Other undergraduate 390, , , % Total part-time 896, , , % Universities UK Patterns of higher education institutions in the UK Seventh report 15

18 25. Finally, in order to assess the long-term trend, Table 7 shows the situation as it was in 1996/97. Table 7 Enrolments by level and gender, 1996/97 Embargo til 00:00 hrs Thursday 13 September 2007 Percentage Level and mode of study Total Female Male male Full-time students Postgraduate 137,714 62,344 75, % First degree 878, , , % Other undergraduate 119,628 69,418 50, % Total full-time 1,135, , , % Part-time students Postgraduate 222, , , % First degree 184,710 99,477 85, % Other undergraduate 210, ,925 78, % Total part-time 617, , , % 26. A comparison of Tables 5 and 7 shows that at all modes and levels, the proportion of male students enrolled in higher education institutions has declined by at least four percentage points and in some instances considerably more - over the 10-year period from 1996/97 to 2005/06. Chart 1 illustrates the changes. Chart 1 Percentage male students by mode and level, 1996/97 and 2005/06 Full-time first degree Full-time other undergraduate Full-time post undergraduate Part-time first degree Part-time other undergraduate Part-time postgraduate 16 Universities UK Patterns of higher education institutions in the UK Seventh report

19 Enrolments by subject Methodological considerations 27. Previous Patterns reports have described, on a time series basis, the trends in student enrolments by subject, and in each of the major subject area groupings. As was the case last year, this exercise involves two complications. 28. The first is that, in 2002/03, HESA introduced a new subject classification, which had the effect of aligning its subject codes with those used by the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS). In the process, a precise correspondence with the codes used in previous years was lost. At the aggregated subject area level, the categorisations are very close, with one exception: introducing the new subject coding, together with a new (and improved) methodology for calculating principal subjects of study, had the effect of significantly reducing the combined subject area. No adjustments will be made for this change. However, it should be taken into account that the precise components of each subject area are somewhat different in 2006/07 compared to the equivalent components before 2002/ The second complication is more significant. Historically, the Open University, which is the largest provider of undergraduate higher education, reported all of its students within the combined subject area. In 2002/03 for the first time, many of the University s students were reported according to the main subject of the qualification for which they were enrolled. It follows that, both at individual subject level, and also at the level of aggregated subject areas, there has been a major shift from the combined subject area into the other subjects and subject areas. The new position gives a better picture of the overall enrolment by subject; but the time series comparison with previous years is distorted considerably. The effect of this change was described in last year s Patterns report, which set out a new baseline for timescale comparisons. 30. Consequently, Table 8 shows the absolute and relative enrolments in each of the 19 conventional subject areas in the most recent two years, and the percentage change. The figures include all students, irrespective of level, mode or domicile. 31. In Table 9, the figures for 2005/06 are now re-presented alongside the 1996/97 figures adjusted according to the new subject definitions to enable comparisons, except that the combined subject area (which showed a 63 per cent reduction as a result of the redistribution of Open University students) is shown below the sub-total of other subject areas. Universities UK Patterns of higher education institutions in the UK Seventh report 17

20 Table 8 Enrolments by subject area, 2004/05 and 2005/06 Percentage Student Student change, enrolments Percentage enrolments Percentage 2004/05 to Subject area 2004/05 of total 2005/06 of total 2005/06 Medicine and dentistry 55,960 2% 59,585 3% 6.5% Subjects allied to medicine 300,140 13% 309,405 13% 3.1% Biological sciences 149,520 7% 155,220 7% 3.8% Veterinary science 4,380 0% 4,465 0% 1.9% Agriculture and related subjects 15,150 1% 17,275 1% 14.0% Physical sciences 78,685 3% 82,740 4% 5.2% Mathematical sciences 31,370 1% 32,425 1% 3.4% Computer science 131,280 6% 120,150 5% -8.5% Engineering and technology 137,825 6% 136,695 6% -0.8% Architecture, building and planning 49,715 2% 56,445 2% 13.5% Social studies 194,580 9% 201,075 9% 3.3% Law 86,655 4% 89,580 4% 3.4% Business and administrative studies 299,310 13% 304,405 13% 1.7% Mass communications and documentation 46,765 2% 47,805 2% 2.2% Languages 134,575 6% 139,190 6% 3.4% Historical and philosophical studies 99,245 4% 101,445 4% 2.2% Creative arts and design 148,390 6% 156,180 7% 5.2% Education 200,905 9% 207,705 9% 3.4% Combined 123,095 5% 114,315 5% -7.1% All subjects 2,287, % 2,336, % 2.1% Table 9 Enrolments by subject area, 1996/97 and 2005/06 (adjusted) Student Percentage Percentage Absolute Percentage numbers of total Student of total change, change, 1996/97 excluding numbers excluding 1996/97 to 1996/97 to Subject area (adjusted) combined 2005/06 combined 2005/ /06 Medicine and dentistry 40, % 59, % 19, % Subjects allied to medicine 153, % 309, % 156, % Biological sciences 81, % 155, % 73, % Veterinary science 3, % 4, % 1, % Agriculture and related subjects 15, % 17, % 2, % Physical sciences 74, % 82, % 8, % Mathematical sciences 19, % 32, % 12, % Computer science 73, % 120, % 46, % Engineering and technology 134, % 136, % 2, % Architecture, building and planning 46, % 56, % 9, % Social studies 129, % 201, % 71, % Law 54, % 89, % 34, % Business and administrative studies 222, % 304, % 82, % Mass communications and documentation 20, % 47, % 27, % Languages 91, % 139, % 47, % Historical and philosophical studies 60, % 101, % 40, % Creative arts and design 87, % 156, % 69, % Education 136, % 207, % 70, % Sub-total excluding combined 1,444,808 2,221, , % Combined 311, , , % Total all subjects 1,756,179 2,336, , % 18 Universities UK Patterns of higher education institutions in the UK Seventh report

21 32. It should be noted that the large increase in the numbers of enrolments in subjects allied to medicine (predominantly nursing) has an obvious (compensatory negative) effect on the proportions of the sector made up by the other subject areas. 33. The percentage change in the numbers within each subject area is therefore illustrated in Chart 2. Chart 2 Percentage change in enrolments by subject area, 1996/97 to 2005/ Above average increases in enrolments since 1996/97 are seen in subjects allied to medicine, biological sciences, mathematical sciences, computer science, law, mass communication and documentation, historical and philosophical studies and creative arts and design. 35. Changes in enrolments in languages, social studies and education are broadly in line with the average increase. 36. While no subject area has seen a significant absolute reduction in student numbers from 1996/97 to 2005/06, there have been significant relative reductions in enrolments in architecture, building and planning, engineering and technology, the physical sciences and agriculture. Smaller reductions have taken place in veterinary science and in business and administrative studies (the latter of which has been one of the most popular subject areas in recent years). Universities UK Patterns of higher education institutions in the UK Seventh report 19

22 37. This simple analysis by broad subject group however does not do full justice to the very significant shifts in emphasis in higher education courses during the 10 years under investigation. It is important to consider the specific subjects 4 being studied in order fully to assess the nature of the changes in detail. 38. As part of this analysis, it is necessary to be aware of the significant changes that took place in the categorisation of subjects in 2002/03. Examples of these changes include: psychology is now classified as a single subject, whereas it was previously identified as two separate subjects, depending on whether its major orientation was scientific or social; physical geography is now combined with the former environmental sciences subject; electronic engineering and electrical engineering have merged into a single subject electronic and electrical engineering ; sports science is identified as a subject in its own right, having previously been split between other related subjects; pharmacy and pharmacology have merged; history of art is no longer identifiable, having been subsumed within history by topic Subject to these caveats, the numbers of students following individual subjects as their main qualification aim in each of the years 1996/97 and 2005/06 are set out in the table in Appendix 1. It should be noted that this table is limited to subjects that can be clearly identified, and generally ignores balanced combinations, broadly-based programmes, and so on. The table does not distinguish by mode, level or intensity of study: it simply reports on the numbers of enrolments within each subject. 40. The populations and definitions used in Appendix 1 and in the following analysis are based on those adopted in the relevant annual HESA publications. Section C looks in more detail at a selection of subjects that may be regarded as strategic and vulnerable, and it will, as far as possible, adopt data definitions that adjust the latest data back to the definitions used in 1996/ A more detailed analysis shows that: Enrolments within medicine and dentistry have risen by 47 per cent, rather less than the overall increase of 54 per cent. Changes in the structure of clinical degrees have led to a shift from pre-clinical to clinical studies. Within subjects allied to medicine, nursing has seen an increase of over 100 per cent. This is largely a product of the shift of funding of nursing courses into the higher education sector. Significant increases are also reported in pharmacy and pharmacology 6 (71 per cent), nutrition (190 per cent), aural and oral sciences (694 per cent though from a low base), ophthalmics (105 per cent), anatomy, physiology and pathology (26 per cent) and medical technology (186 per cent). Within biological sciences most subjects show a below average increase in student numbers, except microbiology, which shows an increase of 79 per cent, and psychology, which shows a 113 per cent increase 7. This area is also addressed in Section C. 4 We are looking here at the principal subject of qualification aim, as identified by HESA. 5 A full explanation of the changes in the subject classification is available at: 6 Under the new subject classification it is no longer possible to distinguish between these two subjects. 7 We should note that psychology is now classified as a single subject including both scientific and social psychologies: the figures have been adjusted to recognise this. 20 Universities UK Patterns of higher education institutions in the UK Seventh report