A concept for the national level
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1 Rainer Schliep t li d and Landscape Development Indicators of climate change impacts on biodiversity A concept for the national level CCNCE Conference Bonn,
2 Project Title: Indicator set addressing direct and indirect impacts of climate change on biological diversity (on behalf of the German Federal Agency for Nature Conservation - BfN) Aims: Development of an indicator set with about 20 indicators addressing impacts of climate change on biodiversity in Germany; central component for an expert information system run by the BfN: Comprehensive, scientifically sound, and self-contained Includes existing, modified and newly developed indicators for policy advice 1
3 Team German Federal lagency for Nature Conservation (supervision: R. Dröschmeister, Dr. U. Sukopp) Technische Universität Berlin (Prof. Dr. Stefan Heiland (lead), Laura Radtke, Rainer Schliep; Robert Bartz, Prof. Dr. Ingo Kowarik) HTW Dresden (Prof. Dr. Frank Dziock, Silvia Dziock) Dachverband Deutscher Avifaunisten e.v. (Dr. Christoph Sudfeldt, Sven Trautmann) Universität Stuttgart (Dr. Livia Schäffler, Prof. Dr. Stefan Siedentop) 2
4 Scope Climate change Ind direct Dire ect impacts Land use, energy production impacts Adaptation of nature conservation strategies and measures es Biological diversity: species, populations, biocoenoses, habitats 3
5 Existing indicator sets and monitoring schemes GLORIA (Global Observation Network in Alpine Environments) SEBI (Streamlining European Biodiversity Indicators, EEA) CLIM (Climate change indicators, EEA) MOBI-e (Austrian biodiversity monitoring system) BDM (Swiss biodiversity monitoring system) UK Biodiversity Indicators UK Climate Change Indicators NBS (German National Biodiversity Strategy s indicator system) and others 4
6 Analysis of existing indicator sets: results Focus: phenological changes of plant species (impact indicators), partly also animal species (birds, butterflies) Rare: Very limited scientific understanding of likely climate change impacts at the level of biocoenoses and ecosystems Rare: Indicators on impacts of adaptation measures of other sectors on biodiversity (pressure indicators) Missing: Indicators concerning adaptation of nature conservation strategies and measures (response indicators) Lacking: Transparency in documentation of algorithms Frequent: Patchy data, often from short-term field studies 5
7 Structure of the proposed indicator set Three indication areas with three indication fields per area: I. Direct climate change impacts on biological diversity Indication fields: Phenology; populations and biocoenosis; habitats II. Indirect climate change impacts on biological diversity as a consequence of mitigation and adaptation measures in other sectors Indication fields: Agriculture, forestry, water management III. Adaptation of nature conservation strategies and measures Indication fields: Adaptation of strategies; adaptation of measures; effectiveness 6
8 Indication area I Direct climate change impacts on biological diversity Indication fields: Phenology; populations and biocoenosis; habitats Indicator examples: Phenological l changes (plant and animal species) Changes in distribution of marine species Community Temperature Index for birds Changes in community ecology Changes in ecosystem ecology 7
9 Indication area II Indirect climate change impacts on biological diversity as a consequence of mitigation and adaptation measures in other sectors Indication fields: Agriculture, forestry, water management Indicator examples: Loss of permanent grasslands Bird species in agricultural lands Forest conversion under climate change Recovery of flood plains 8
10 Indication area III Adaptation of nature conservation strategies and measures Indication fields: Adaptation of strategies; adaptation of measures; effectiveness Indicator examples: Consideration of climate change in landscape planning (state and district level) Habitat networks (only implemented measures) Wilderness and natural succession in forests Distribution of autochthonous plant material Indicators of effectiveness 9
11 Indicator fact sheets - example 10
12 Challenges of indicator development 1. Inappropriate data: lacking long-term data from permanent monitoring i schemes 2. Interaction with other threats to biodiversity: evidence of biodiversity decline due solely to climate change impacts is still limited (Foden et al. 2013); multiple and interacting pressures, CC impacts still comparatively less severe. 3. Weak models: assume that species niches are bioclimatically determined and remain static, but: lacking empirical data, changing interspecific interactions, adaptive capacity of species, novel bioclimatic conditions 4. To date, implementation and effectiveness of adaptation strategies and measures in nature conservation are still hardly to be evaluated. 11
13 Rainer Schliep t li d and Landscape Development Thanks to the project team for contributions and thank you for your kind attention! Dieses Vorhaben wird durch das Bundesamt für Naturschutz (BfN) mit Mitteln des Bundesministeriums für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit gefördert. CCNCE Conference Bonn,
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