3 Introduction Hi, I'm Michael Nurok and I want to congratulate you on downloading this report and the customized indicator that I call the. This system came about as a result of requiring a trading strategy to identify potential reversal highs and lows, in both sideways markets and trending markets. In my early trading years, I quickly realized that: Price moves in a zigzag motion Yes folks there s no such thing as a straight line in trading and not even the strongest trends move in the same direction forever. One of my trading mentors used to joke that in trading, when you re sitting on profitable open positions, you need to; know when to party hard and know when to leave the party early. It s this mindset and understanding of the way the market operates, that motivated me to devise a system that would allow me to pick entry points that had a high probability of success, and just as importantly, provide me with reliable target levels, that offered me a high probability of hitting the target, without staying in the trade in a diminishing position. It also provided me with the opportunity to stay in the position while trailing the trade and tightening my stops at exactly the right moment. This system can generate great trade opportunities for you, but only if you stay disciplined and stick to the rules. The is simple to use and utilises 3 very popular and powerful indicators that enable you to: 1. Identify potential divergence set ups 2. Identify high-probability entry points 3. Identify high-probability target levels Read the course to the end. Then read it again. Install the template on a demo trading account and trade the system on the 1 hour, 4 hour or daily time frames, however I suggest you to start on the daily charts. Once you gain experience and some winning trades, you are then ready to start using the system. 3
4 How the Market Moves Whatever system you are using to trade, accept that the market always moves back on itself, much like water finding its own balance. Another way to think of the market is like an elastic band that stretches to extremes and on a regular basis, retracts back to resting positions before moving again. Traders call this a market correction and it s brought about by a number of factors including profit taking, as well as the general ongoing battle between the bulls and the bears (those that are buying and those that are selling) The following image shows that even in an, in this case, upward direction, the price always moves back down again, in its journey towards higher highs. Here s another image in a more conceptual way, that shows how the market moves down from resistance levels, and moves up from support levels. 4
5 Bollinger Bands Bollinger Bands are a technical analysis tool invented by John Bollinger (born 1950), a famous technical trader. John is one of the world s leading technical analysts who wrote several books on technical analysis and received numerous awards (among others, a Lifetime Award for Outstanding Achievement in Technical Analysis). Bollinger Bands are a volatility indicator and they are extremely accurate at providing helpful indications of overbought or oversold levels relative to the moving average. They are placed above and below the moving average and automatically: Widen when volatility increases, and Narrow when volatility decreases We are particularly interested in market set ups when the Bollinger Bands are wide. It is at these points that we then look for divergences, that will be explained later in this report. The following shows the Bollinger Bands installed. They comprise of 3 lines: The upper Bollinger Band The center line The lower Bollinger Band 5
6 Bollinger Bands consists of: an n-period simple moving average an upper band at k times an n-period standard deviation above the moving average a lower band at k times an n-period standard deviation below the moving average The middle band is a simple moving average that is usually set at 20 periods. Since the standard deviation formula is using the simple moving average, that s why the simple moving average is used in Bollinger Bands. The lookback period for the standard deviation is the same as for the simple moving average. The outer bands are usually set 2 standard deviations above and below the moving average, and that moving average represents the middle band. Bollinger Bands adjust themselves to the market conditions very well, since standard deviation is a measure of volatility. When the markets become more volatile, the bands widen (move further away from the average), and when markets become less volatile, the bands contract (move closer to the average). When the Bollinger bands contract, it s usually an early sign that there will be a sharp increase in volatility. There are numerous ways traders are using Bollinger Bands. For example; some traders buy when price touches the lower Bollinger Band and exit when price touches the moving average in the center of the bands. Some traders buy when price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band or sell when price falls below the lower Bollinger Band. My trading strategy, the, looks for: Buying opportunities when the price breaks or touches the lower Bollinger Band Selling opportunities when the price breaks or touches the upper Bollinger Band 6
7 We use the opposite Bollinger Band for our ultimate target. We use the center line (the 20 period MA) as the 1st initial target where you can move your stops to lock in some pips. We also use the center line to trail the trade. 7
8 MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence Oscillator) The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence oscillator (MACD) is one of the simplest and most effective momentum indicators available. It was developed by Gerald Appel in the late seventies and it's still one of the most popular and most used indicators. MACD consists of three parts: MACD Line, Signal Line and MACD Histogram. The MACD Line is the 12-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26- period EMA. These moving averages are applied to the close of the candles. The Signal Line is represented as a 9-period EMA of the MACD Line. The MACD Histogram represents the difference between MACD and its 9-period EMA, the Signal line. MACD Line: (12-period EMA - 26-period EMA) Signal Line: 9-period EMA of MACD Line MACD Histogram: MACD Line - Signal Line MACD Histogram The MACD-Histogram is an indicator designed to predict signal line crossovers in MACD. By extension, it is designed as an early warning system for these signal line crossovers, which are the most frequent of MACD signals. Since this system is using MACD Histogram, we've developed an indicator that displays only the MACD Histogram, as it does not require the signal line, and added the functionality of color coding: when the Histogram is above zero, it will turn blue when the Histogram is below zero, it will turn red 8
9 ADS indicator ADS Indicator is an indicator developed specifically for this system. It doesn't follow price or volume. It follows the speed or the momentum of price. As a rule, the momentum changes direction before price. It can also be used to identify bull (buy) and bear (sell) set-ups to anticipate a future reversal. It measures the level of the close relative to the high-low range over a given period of time. The blue bars represent a buy momentum, while red bars represent sell momentum. Dark blue color represents stronger buy signal than light blue color. The same is with red: Dark red color represents stronger sell signal than light red color. The following image displays the ADS Indicator. 9
10 Spike Alert Spike Alert is an indicator developed for this system that will make it easier for you to spot when the price breaks above or below the Bollinger Bands. It displays green in the middle of the bar and displays blue at the top of the bar when price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band, while displaying red at the bottom of the bar when price breaks below the Bollinger Band. The following image shows an example of the Spike Alert when the price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band: 10
11 The following image shows an example of the Spike Alert when the price breaks below the lower Bollinger Band: 11
12 Swing Highs and Swing Lows Because this system uses Divergence to identify potential market set ups, we need to be able to understand Swing Highs and Swing Lows. We need to be able to draw lines connecting: Higher Swing High with a Lower Swing High for a Bearish Divergence, or Lower Swing Low with a Higher Swing Low for a Bullish Divergence The connected Swing Highs or connected Swing Lows must correlate to the divergence set ups on the MACD. Swing High A Swing High is formed when the high of a price is greater than the high of the candle to the left and the candle to the right. 12
13 Swing Low A Swing Low is formed when the low of a price is lower than the low of the candle to the left and the candle to the right. The following shows the swing highs and swing lows. 13
14 Identifying Bullish Divergence The following image shows a potential market set up of a Bullish Divergence on the MACD. Notice that the line drawn connects a lower-low of the MACD histogram with a higher-low of the MACD histogram. The following image shows a potential market set up of a Bullish Divergence on the market price. Notice that the line drawn connects a Higher Swing Low of price with a Lower Swing Low of price. 14
15 The following image brings it all together. Market Divergence is defined by price moving in one direction while an indicator representing price is moving in a different direction. So, in the case of Bullish Divergence, using the, we re looking for the market to show price moving down, while our MACD shows that price is moving up. And we re particularly looking for a Bullish Divergence when price is at the lower realms of the lower Bollinger Band. The following is an example of a Bullish Divergence using the exact same images of price and MACD, as above. Note how the Swing Lows are directly correlated to where the MACD lows are. 15
16 Identifying Bearish Divergence The following image shows a potential market set up of a Bearish Divergence on the MACD. Notice that the line drawn connects a higher-high of the MACD histogram with a lower-high of the MACD histogram. The following image shows a potential market set up of a Bearish Divergence on the market price. Notice that the line drawn connects a Lower Swing High of price with a Higher Swing High of price. 16
17 The following image brings it all together. As I stated before; Market Divergence is defined by price moving in one direction while an indicator representing price is moving in a different direction. So, in the case of Bearish Divergence, using the, we re looking for the market to show price moving up, while our MACD shows that price is moving down. And we re particularly looking for a Bearish Divergence when price is at the higher realms of the upper Bollinger Band. The following is an example of a Bearish Divergence using the exact same images of price and MACD, as above. Note how the Swing Highs are directly correlated to where the MACD highs are. 17
18 TRADING RULES BUY RULES 1. A Bullish Divergence must exist. a. The MACD must show a rising momentum between a lower-low MACD level and a higher-low MACD level b. The price must show an overall falling price between a Swing-Low point that correlates to the Lower-Low MACD level and a Swing-Low point that correlates to the Higher-Low MACD level 2. The price point that correlates to the Higher-Low of the MACD level, must either: break below the lower Bollinger Band OR be within 10 pips of the lower Bollinger Band 3. ADS Indicator must change color from red to blue 4. Entry of trade is based on the open of the first candle after the ADS changed color to blue 5. Stop loss is placed at 10 pips for H1 time frame, 15 pips for H4 time frame or 25 pips for D1 time frame, below the low of the signal bar that occurs on the ADS crossover 6. The ultimate target is the higher Bollinger Band Void Trades: 1. The entry is void if the price of the signal bar closes above the 20-Period Simple Moving Average (the middle line between the upper & lower Bollinger Bands) OR if the price closes within 10% below the centre line of the Bollinger Band (based on the vertical distance of upper & lower Bollinger Bands) Trade Management Notes: 1. 1st Trailing Stop Target is set when price breaks the 20-Period Simple Moving Average (the center line between the Bollinger Bands) 2. The center line between the Bollinger Bands can be used to trail price 3. The stop loss can be tightened to 10 pips from current price if the ADS generates a reversal signal 4. The ultimate target should be a minimum of a 1:1 reward-to-risk ratio compared to the stop loss (distance between entry price & 25 pips below the low of the signal bar) 18
19 Rule 1: A Bullish Divergence must exist. Rule 2: The price point that correlates to the Higher-Low of the MACD level, must either: break below the lower Bollinger Band OR be within 10 pips of the lower Bollinger Band 19
20 Rule 3: ADS indicator must change color from red to blue Rule 4: Entry of trade is based on the open of the first candle after the ADS changed color 20
21 Rule 5: Stop loss is placed at 10 pips for H1 time frame, 15 pips for H4 time frame or 25 pips for D1 time frame, below the low of the signal bar that occurs on the ADS crossover Rule 6: The ultimate target is the higher Bollinger Band 21
22 Buy Example The following image provides an excellent example of a Bullish Divergence that represents an excellent opportunity to buy. Note that the price is moving down, between the Swing Lows, correlating with the MACD histogram lows. Note also that the price has broken the lower band of the Bollinger Band, representing that price is at over-sold and is stretched to an extreme, and much like an elastic band, is probable to return back up, even if only temporarily. Finally, note that the ADS Indicator changed from red to blue, representing that the momentum is now in an upward momentum. This point is the perfect time to consider entering the trade as a buy/long trade because not only is a Bullish Divergence present, but the momentum is now with you. 22
23 SELL RULES 1. A Bearish Divergence must exist. a. The MACD must show a falling momentum between a higher-high MACD level and a lower-high MACD level b. The price must show an overall rising price between a Swing-High point that correlates to the Higher-High MACD level and a Swing-High point that correlates to the Lower-High MACD level 2. The price point that correlates to the Lower-High of the MACD level, must either: break above the upper Bollinger Band OR be within 10 pips of the upper Bollinger Band 3. ADS Indicator must change color from blue to red 4. Entry of trade is based on the open of the first candle after the ADS changed color to red 5. Stop loss is placed at 10 pips for H1 time frame, 15 pips for H4 time frame or 25 pips for D1 time frame, above the high of the signal bar that occurs on the ADS crossover 6. The ultimate target is the lower Bollinger Band Void Trades: The entry is void if the price of the signal bar closes below the 20-Period Simple Moving Average (the middle line between the upper & lower Bollinger Bands) OR if the price closes within 10% above the centre line of the Bollinger Band (based on the vertical distance of upper & lower Bollinger Bands) Trade Management Notes: 1. 1st Trailing Stop Target is set when price breaks the 20-Period Simple Moving Average (the center line between the Bollinger Bands) 2. The center line between the Bollinger Bands can be used to trail price 3. The stop loss can be tightened to 10 pips from current price if the ADS generates a reversal signal 4. The ultimate target should be a minimum of a 1:1 reward-to-risk ratio compared to the stop loss (distance between entry price & 25 pips above the high of the signal bar) 23
24 Rule 1: A Bearish Divergence must exist Rule 2: The price point that correlates to the Lower-High of the MACD level, must either; break above the upper Bollinger Band OR be within 10 pips of the upper Bollinger Band 24
25 Rule 3: ADS Indicator must change color from blue to red Rule 4: Entry of trade is based on the open of the first candle after the ADS indicator changed color to red 25
26 Rule 5: Stop loss is placed at 10 pips for H1 time frame, 15 pips for H4 time frame or 25 pips for D1 time frame, above the high of the signal bar that occurs on the ADS crossover Rule 6: The ultimate target is the lower Bollinger Band 26
27 Sell Example The following image provides an excellent example of a Bearish Divergence that represents an excellent opportunity to sell. Note that the price is moving up, between the Swing Highs, correlating with the MACD histogram highs. Note also that the price has broken the upper band of the Bollinger Band, representing that price is at over-bought and is stretched to an extreme, and much like an elastic band, is probable to return back up, even if only temporarily. Finally, note that the ADS Indicator changed color from blue to red, representing that the momentum is now in a downward momentum. This point is the perfect time to consider entering the trade as a sell/short trade because not only is a Bearish Divergence present, but the momentum is now with you. 27
28 Conclusion Congratulations on finishing reading this report! You are now on your way to using the for your trading in seeking high-probability entry points. I always love feedback and enjoy helping other traders grow and succeed so please don t hesitate to contact me with any questions you have or even just to tell us how you re going. My team and I take your journey in succeeding as a trader very seriously so I look forward to hearing back from you and getting to know you better in the members area as we trade together. You will not win on every trade. No one ever wins all the time, regardless of what system is being used. This is just a fact of life with trading and you should consider losses much like an overhead of your business. In fact, you should treat trading as a business, whether you trade full-time or parttime, and give it the time, energy and respect it deserves if you want to succeed as a trader in the long term. Remember; stick to the rules, use good trade management and be consistent. Good trading & live well, 28
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