# Professional Trader Series: Moving Average Formula & Strategy Guide. by John Person

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1 Professional Trader Series: Moving Average Formula & Strategy Guide by John Person

3 Here is how to calculate a Simple Moving Average (SMA). If we take the close of the last ten periods add them together then divide by ten we get the mean or average of the last ten periods. As a new period is added we drop the oldest time period. Periods: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 = 13600, 13620, 13615, 13580, 13565, 13600, 13610, 13650, 13660, 13650, Sum = = A weighted average is any average that has multiplying factors to give different weights to different data points. But in technical analysis a weighted moving average (WMA) has the specific meaning of weights which decrease arithmetically. Weighted M/A s give a greater weight to more recent price data. These are complicated and need the aid of a computer. WMA = the latest day has weight n, the second latest n-1, etc, down to zero. Exponential moving averages (also called exponentially weighted moving averages). The EMA applies weighting factors which decrease exponentially. EMA s reduce the lag by applying more weight to recent prices relative to older prices. The shorter the EMA s period, the more weight that will be applied to the most recent price. EMA = (Price (current) EMA (previous) (x Multiplier) + EMA (previous) Pr o s Defines average price changes over time and smoothes out trading noise. Excellent trend trading tool. Used to identify, triggers, entries, support and resistance levels. Can be used in trading systems & one can study the back-tested performance results. Co n s M/A s lag behind markets price changes. Not effective in choppy markets. Not effective in discovering price extensions. Can t predict turning points like Fibonacci or Pivot analysis only changes in trends 3

4 Variables to use as choices to average. Highs Lows Close Opens Average of range (High-Low) Average of typical price (HLC/3) Volume Volatility measurements (VXN, VIX VXO) There are several ways to identify the direction of the trend with moving averages. If we look at the relationship between prices and the moving average we can study not only the direction of the moving average but the location of price in relationship to the moving average values and the crossovers points of interest. Simple rule of thumb: If the moving average is rising, and prices are above the M/A, the trend is considered up. If the moving average is declining, and prices are below the M/A, the trend is considered down. An additional filter to trigger a signal on a price change would be if the close is above or below the moving average. Another method is if the entire range of the price components (O, H, L, C) are trading above or below the moving average. Another filter is if those factors are for more than one session. In figure 1 below we have a daily chart on soybeans with indicator triangles. Green marks buy signals and orange highlights sell signals. We can see where the entire range (O, H, L, C) not just the close, crosses and remains above or below the moving average line which heightens the fact that a trend change has occurred. This method is highly effective in identifying and confirming a directional price change. Not all times will this work, and in some cases the signal is generated after a huge move has already taken place, but one can use this concept as a building block for a trading system. Especially for trend followers since the exit strategy would be confirmed once prices closed below a moving average and the entire range for more than one time period. 4

5 Figure 1 In figure 2 we have a weekly chart on corn to illustrate that this concept works on various markets and in different time frames. This method would keep you in the majority of the trend. 5

6 Figure 2 In figure 2 notice the green triangle which illustrates a buy signal as two or more entire ranges are above the moving average line. Then a sell signal is generated when two or more time period s entire ranges are below the moving average value. This is the added filter method to use as a confirming indication of when a trend will reverse or remain in tact. We can enhance any system with trade management techniques. Most traders have a hard time making fast decisions under pressure while examining the price relationship and moving averages. The aid of adding filters to signals can enhance a traders performance especially when we include trade management techniques to determine entry, risk, position add on s, scale outs or flat-out exit levels. 6

8 Figure 3 Filtering tools Stochastics a range based oscillator it is also considered a momentum oscillator George C. Lane is credited with creating the formula. I had the privilege of working for George back in 1980 through His indicator is a popular technical tool used to help determine whether a market is overbought, meaning prices have advanced too far too soon and due for a downside correction, or oversold, meaning prices have declined too far too soon and due for an upside correction. It is based on a mathematical formula that is computed to compare the settlement price of a specific time period to the price range of a specific number of past periods. 8

10 4 shows a bullish convergence in the Stochastics as prices made a lower low, but the indicator made a corresponding higher low. The horizontal green line was the pre-determined pivot point support and we had the green triangles give buy signals. Figure 4 Another signal is a trading pattern called bearish divergence. It is used in identifying market tops. This is where the market price itself makes a higher high from a previous high but the underlying stochastic pattern makes a lower high. This indicates that the second high is a weak high and can resort to a turn around for a lower price reversal. As you can see in Figure 5 once again using multiple indicators to help filter out trade signals generated by moving average cross overs as is the case with this dead cross signal a orange triangle generated a sell signal with a corresponding bearish divergence stochastics pattern. 10

11 Figure 5 Moving Average Convergence/Divergence otherwise known as MACD in simplest terms is an indicator that shows when a short term moving average crosses over a longer term moving average. Gerald Appel developed this indicator as we know it today and it is my understanding that he developed it for the purpose of stock trading. It is composed of using three exponential moving averages. The initial inputs for the calculations were a 9 period, a 12 period and a 26 period. I might add that since traders are now more computer savvy than ever before it is easy to change or tweak the variables in his original calculations. Traders can increase the time periods in the moving average calculations to generate less trade signals and shorten the time periods to generate more trade signals. 11

12 This technique and concept applies to the use of moving averages as covered previously. The concept is this, there are two lines one is the 9 period exponential averages (slow line) and the other is the difference between the 12 and 26 period exponential moving average (fast line). This is important information because you do not want to use moving similar time settings overlaid on your charts as this would not be a confirming tool but a duplicate signal generating component. MACD signals react quickly to changes in the market that is why a lot of analysts including myself use it. It helps clear the picture when moving average crossovers occur. It measures the relative strength between where current prices are as compared to past time frames from a short term perspective to a longer term perspective. MACD signals are generated after the market has moved in an opposite direction of the original trend, and therefore is why it is considered a lagging indicator. Some general points to help you understand how to use this indicator are first; when the fast line crosses above the slow line a buy signal is generated. The opposite is true for sell signals. MACD also has a zero base line. If MACD line is above the zero line prices are usually trending higher. The opposite is true if MACD is declining below the zero line. Another method, and more reliable, however one that does not form often is a pattern called bullish convergence. This is where the market price itself makes a lower low from a previous low but the underlying MACD pattern makes a higher low. This indicates that the low is weak or false bottom and can resort to a turn around for a price reversal. MACD has the same principles as far as a sell signal with what is known as Bearish Divergence. This is where the market price itself makes a higher high from a previous high but the underlying MACD crossover lines make a lower high. This indicates that the second high is a weak high and can resort to a turn around for a lower price reversal. We see more divergence patterns in the histogram component than we do in the actual moving average MACD lines. The chart in Figure 6 is a daily chart on the 30 Year Treasury Bonds with the MACD indicator in the lower pane beneath the price bars. I used blue vertical line to help illustrate when the MACD lines corresponded with the indicator triangles and moving average cross overs. As you can see we have situations where the histogram component forms bullish and bearish divergence when it does not appear in the MACD moving average lines. 12

13 Figure 6 The next chart in figure 7 has the MACD in the middle pane and the CCI indicator at the bottom. Looking at the corresponding moving average crossovers we can see where the two other indicators line up confirming a market turn. This shows the benefits of using the two indicators as one can generate a cleaner signal and in this case the moving average crossover feature of the MACD confirms the sell signal. 13

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