Feasibility Study concerning High-speed Railway Lines in Norway Ref. No

Transcription

1 Feasibility Study concerning High-speed Railway Lines in Norway Ref. No Seminar Phase 1 Oslo, 2006 November 22 Page 1

2 Contents 1. Introduction 2. Definition of High-speed Traffic 3. Market Study 4. Technical Aspects on High-speed Traffic in Norway 5. Corridors and Lines 6. Summary and Conclusions to Phase 1 Page 2

3 The Order PHASE 1 Compare High-Speed-Concepts Analyse Potentials for Norway Regard Corridors PHASE 2 Operations Costs Benefits Page 3

4 The Consortium Members and Fields of Work VWI Verkehrswissenschaftliches Institut Stuttgart GmbH Project administration, operation, evaluation, costs and benefits Intraplan Consult GmbH Passenger transport demand, market study, modal-split calculations I ng e n i e ur Ge se ll sch a ft V e r ke h r I G V Ingenieur Gesellschaft Verkehr Sautter Steinbach GbR Network basic construction, infrastructure planning Institute for Railway and Transportation Engineering of the University of Stuttgart (Teach and Research Division of Railway-Vehicle-Technology) Operation basics and operation of lines, investment costs, power supply, maintenance Fachgebiet Schienenfahrzeuge der Technischen Universität Berlin Institute of Land and Maritime Transportation - Specialised Field concerning Railway Vehicles of the Technical University of Berlin basics of technical conditions and costs of railway vehicles Institute of Transportation Constructions Chair for Planning and Design of Infrastructure for guided Transport of the Technical University of Dresden basic technical conditions for high-speed railway infrastructure Page 4

5 Study Concept High-Speed-Basic-Analysis PHASE 1 Market-Study High-Speed-Railway Specific Conditions Choice of Lines to be preferred Presentation and Report Operations and Stops Infrastructure Planning Operation Planning Loop over Corridors PHASE 2 Impacts and Effects of High- Speed-Railway-Transport Costs and Benefits Evaluation Presentation and Report Page 5

6 Main Characteristics of High-speed Rail Networks High-Speed-Rail means Running at least 200 kph and faster Integrated Concept of Lines, Vehicles and Operations Railway services with (very) short travel times = less than car traffic = comparable with air traffic on short and medium distances (up to 400 km) = comparable with air traffic on long distances (up to 800 km) Using new high-speed lines = maximum speed depending on topography and settlement structure Using new train technologies = high-powered trains = special technologies, e.g. tilting trains Combining with existing conventional lines = Access to the cities = Extension of High-speed services to the regions = Intermediate solutions while building up the network Page 6

7 Main Characteristics of High-speed Rail Networks High-Speed-Rail also means (Very) High Costs for Alignment and Vehicles Phase in to Realisation Step by Step Page 7

8 Main Characteristics of High-speed Rail Networks Germany: Federal Rail Master Plan 1985 Page 8

9 Speed Examples of High-Speed-Railway-Lines Average Speed High-Speed-Railway Lines in Europe km / 88 % / 1:25 h running time [h:mm] high-speed and upgraded line [%] distance [km] Page 9 Paris - Marseille Paris - Lyon Madrid - Cuidad Real Hamburg - Berlin Madrid - Sevillia Paris - London Stuttgart - Mannheim Köln - Frankfurt Roma - Firenze Paris - Bordeaux Paris - Cologne Madrid - Guadalajara Paris - Amsterdam Roma - Napoli Roma - Torino Average Speed [kph] 750 km / 100 % / 3:15 h 431 km / 100 % / 1:55 h 171 km / 100 % / 0:50 h 292 km / 91 % / 1:36 h 471 km / 100 % / 2:35 h 495 km / 100 % / 2:42 h 105 km / 94 % / 0:35 h 177 km / 80 % / 1:06 h 261 km / 100 % / 1:36 h 570 km / 56 % / 3:31 h 564 km / 68 % / 3:50 h 64 km / 100 % / 0:27 h 568 km / 52 % / 4:11 h 214 km / 91 % / 1:35 h 785 km / 46 % / 6:00 h

10 Frankfurt- Airport Example High-Speed-Railway-Line High-Speed-Railway-Line Köln-Rhein/Main: Speed [km/h]: km 0 1,2 25,2 88,3 109,7 168,5 180,0 Köln Köln- Deutz Siegburg/ Bonn Average Speed: Siegburg/Bonn Frankfurt-Flughafen Montabaur Limburg 210 kph 143 km 41 min without Stops Frankfurt Köln Hbf Frankfurt-Flughafen Köln-Deutz Frankfurt-Flughafen Köln Frankfurt Hbf Old line: Köln Hbf Frankfurt Hbf 177 kph 168 km 57 min with Stop at Siegburg/Bonn 173 kph 167 km 58 min with Stops at Montabaur and Limburg Süd 150 kph 180 km 72 min with Stops at Siegburg/Bonn and Frankfurt-Airport 91 kph 213 km 141 min with three Stops Page 10

11 Objectives and Background 1. Objectives Identification of most important demand potentials for High-Speed Rail Services 2. Background Using approved passenger transport models Experiences = Passenger Transport Forecast for the German Transport Master Plans (since 1985) = European-wide Passenger Traffic Study on behalf of UIC (1988, 1993, 2002) = Air Traffic Study for different major European Airports INTRAPLAN Consult GmbH HSR Norway Market Study 22. Nov 06 Page 1

12 The European Passenger Transport Model Supply Demand Basic Conditions 2005 Infrastructure Air/Rail/Road Services Air/Rail/Bus OD-Matrices Air/Rail/Road/Bus Inhabitants Income / GDP Transport policies European Passenger Transport Model 2020 Infrastructure Air/Rail/Road Services Air/Rail/Bus Inhabitants Income / GDP Transport policies OD-Matrices Air/Rail/Road/Bus INTRAPLAN Consult GmbH HSR Norway Market Study 22. Nov 06 Page 2

13 Key Figures in a European Context Socio-economic Structure Norway is the most sparsely populated country throughout Europe GDP per capita in Norway is the second highest in Europe Car density in Norway is one of the lowest Long-distance Passenger Traffic Today Norwegians long-distance mobility is one of the highest throughout Europe Norwegians long-distance mobility is air traffic orientated In contrast, Norwegians rail mobility is one of the weakest Long-distance Passenger Traffic in Future Long-distance passenger is object of ongoing growth Railways traffic demand can grow likewise if basic conditions develop on a favourable path for railways If no upgrading of existing rail services is planned, rail market share will diminish INTRAPLAN Consult GmbH HSR Norway Market Study 22. Nov 06 Page 3

14 Key Figures in a European Context Overall mobility Kilometers per Annum and Inhabitant 1999 not specified < Finland RU > Norway Sweden EE EE LV Denmark Ireland LT BY United Kingdom Poland Netherlands Germany Belgium Luxembourg UA Czech. Republic SK France Austria Switzerland MD HU RO SI HR BA YU BG Italy MK Portugal Spain TR AL TR Greece Feasibility Study High-Speed Traffic Norway Overall Mobility (Long-distance Traffic) INTRAPLAN Consult GmbH Kilometres 200 source: UIC Study HSR Norway Market Study 22. Nov 06 Page 4

15 Key Figures in a European Context Rail Market Share Market Share 1999 not specified < 4% 4% - 8% 8% - 12% 12% - 16% Finland 8.7% 16% - 20% > 20% RU Norway 4.7% Sweden 10.2% EE EE LV Denmark 9.9% Ireland 3.9% LT BY United Kingdom 8.1% Poland 22.5% Netherlands 9.9% Germany 8.4% Belgium 7.9% Luxembourg 11.5% UA Czech. Republic 13.9% SK France 17.1% Austria 8.4% Switzerland 15.3% MD HU RO SI HR BA YU BG Italy 11.7% MK Portugal 5.2% Spain 5.8% TR AL TR Greece 3.4% Feasibility Study High-Speed Traffic Norway Market Share of Rail (Long-distance Traffic) INTRAPLAN Consult GmbH Kilometres 200 source: UIC Study HSR Norway Market Study 22. Nov 06 Page 5

16 Key Figures in a European Context Long-distance Mobility 100 Long-distance Passenger Mobility Selcted Capitals Long-distance Passenger Mobility INTRAPLAN Consult GmbH HSR Norway Market Study 22. Nov 06 Page 6 Oslo Bergen Trondheim Stavanger Index (Oslo = 100) Berlin Amsterdam Roma Madrid Lisboa København Stockholm Oslo Luxembourg Index (Berlin = 100)

17 Key Figures in a European Context Conclusion Only Oslo can act as an origin for new High-Speed Lines High-speed Services have to be adjusted to relative small traffic potentials It has to be reached high cost efficiency by combining the relative small potentials by integration of existing services by minimising of investment and operation costs Rail travel times between the centres of the major cities should be competitive to air traffic and therefore should not exceed three hours INTRAPLAN Consult GmbH HSR Norway Market Study 22. Nov 06 Page 7

18 Basic Forecast Overall Long-distance passenger demand will grow by about 10% to 15% on short and medium distances about 30% to 40% on longer distances due to development of population and economic growth* Without High-Speed Services, rail market share will fall considerably due to economic growth* higher car availability* growing rail fares* In total, rail traffic will grow only slightly if the railway s level of service will be the same in 2020 as today. * The assumptions on the development of socio-economic figures and user costs are made in coherence with the assumptions of other studies made for the new Norwegian transport master plan. INTRAPLAN Consult GmbH HSR Norway Market Study 22. Nov 06 Page 8

19 Traffic demand with High-Speed-Rail-Services With High-Speed-Rail-Services The railway s market share will grow strongly up to 50% of total traffic demand in the corridors Overall traffic demand will grow due to shorter land bound travel time today and lower user costs in comparison to air traffic INTRAPLAN Consult GmbH HSR Norway Market Study 22. Nov 06 Page 9

20 INTRAPLAN Consult GmbH HSR Norway Market Study 22. Nov 06 Page 10 Toensberg Halden Oslo Skien Hamar Fredrikstad Moss Drammen Larvik Sarpsborg Sandefjord Porsgrunn OSLO/GARDERMOEN Ringerike Elverum Flaa 1014 Sigdal 3537 Gran Ringsaker Stange Soer-Aurdal 3265 Gjoevik Nordre Land 6847 Kongsberg Nord-Aurdal 6442 Notodden Rollag 1441 Modum Flesberg 2517 Etnedal 1397 Eidsvoll Marker 3439 Gol 4375 Nome 6565 Aurskog-Hoeland Loeten 7271 Soendre Land 6008 Lier Soer-Odal 7623 Nord-Odal 5073 Drangedal 4143 Eidskog 6499 Lardal 2419 Nes_Akershus Oestre Toten Hurdal 2602 Horten Lunner 8505 Rakkestad 7284 Hole 5229 Bamble Oevre Eiker Siljan 2372 Nes_Buskerud 3485 Aremark 1425 Fet 9567 Lillehammer Vaaler_Hedmark 3924 Sauherad 4323 Hof 3048 Nannestad Kroedsherad 2151 Enebakk 9297 Ski Soerum Nittedal Hurum 8799 Andebu 5083 Ullensaker Eidsberg Vestre Toten Krageroe Jevnaker 6335 Baerum Troegstad 4962 Vestby Hoboel 4557 Roemskog 667 Stokke Aas Rygge Vaaler_Oestfold 4020 Askim Asker Spydeberg 4798 Raade 6465 Skiptvet 3355 Frogn Nedre Eiker Sande_Vestfold 7690 Roeyken Boe_Telemark 5249 Gjerdrum 5064 Skedsmo Svelvik 6441 Holmestrand 9604 Raelingen Loerenskog Nesodden Gjerstad 2500 Hvaler 3773 Noetteroey Tjoeme 4582 Oppegaard TORP RYGGE KJELLER NOTODDEN OSLO/FORNEBU SKIEN/GEITERYGGEN 3063 Oppland 3031 Buskerud 3064 Hedmark 3021 Østfold 3012 Akershus 3032 Telemark 3033 Vestfold 2031 Göteborg 2062 Karlstad 3011 Oslo Kilometers Toensberg Halden Bergen Oslo Skien Arendal Hamar Trondheim Fredrikstad Kristiansand Moss Drammen Stavanger Larvik Sarpsborg Sandefjord Porsgrunn OSLO/GARDERMOEN Vinje 3758 Trysil 6882 Luster 4927 Lesja 2184 Tinn 6380 Lom 2467 Hol 4557 Rendalen 2105 Oppdal 6473 Skjaak 2394 Vang 1613 Odda 7378 Voss Tynset 5405 Roeros 5636 Sirdal 1760 Bykle 857 Stryn 6843 Valle 1384 Suldal 3901 Tydal 902 Engerdal 1499 Aal 4670 Dovre 2875 Selbu 3988 Tolga 1778 Rauma 7336 Sunndal 7370 Aamot 4398 Aamli 1801 Stor-Elvdal 2832 Eidfjord 914 Folldal 1717 Aurland 1783 Sel 6059 Laerdal 2158 Vaagaa 3773 Nore og Uvdal 2635 Vik 2881 Grue 5275 Tokke 2463 Ringerike Bygland 1327 Alvdal 2416 Surnadal 6160 Nesset 3181 Aardal 5631 Ringebu 4586 Fyresdal 1353 Ulvik 1163 Etne 3904 Gausdal 6175 Flaa 1014 Aasnes 7779 Meraaker 2560 Sigdal 3537 Holtaalen 2132 Midtre Gauldal 5797 Gran Aaseral 907 Verdal Gol 4375 Oeyer 4840 Nissedal 1408 Rennebu 2660 Hjartdal 1633 Rindal 2101 Flora Elverum Ringsaker Gloppen 5793 Norddal 1817 Oersta Hitra 4025 Nord-Fron 5896 Stjoerdal Kvam 8334 Stranda 4605 Ullensvang 3517 Drangedal 4143 Seljord 2919 Stange Volda 8351 Kvinesdal 5582 Rissa 6433 Melhus Meldal 3934 Forsand 1102 Notodden Eid 5766 Hjelmeland 2736 Soer-Aurdal 3265 Hemne 4277 Orkdal Gjoevik Gaular 2749 Joelster 2918 Froland 4672 Sauda 4819 Foerde Kongsvinger Kvinnherad Lund 3129 Gjesdal 9273 Gulen 2459 Eidskog 6499 Os_Hedmark 2087 Kviteseid 2598 Nordre Land 6847 Birkenes 4340 Fusa 3709 Nord-Aurdal 6442 Fjaler 2916 Hemsedal 1909 Soer-Fron 3271 Sogndal 6794 Kongsberg Nome 6565 Rollag 1441 Modum Bjerkreim 2463 Oeystre Slidre 3114 Levanger Flesberg 2517 Etnedal 1397 Snillfjord 1026 Bremanger 4031 Eidsvoll Marker 3439 Aure 2620 Lindaas Leksvik 3508 Aurskog-Hoeland Nes_Buskerud 3485 Loeten 7271 Halsa 1697 Molde Fraena 9023 Soendre Land 6008 Lier Soer-Odal 7623 Lyngdal 7244 Nord-Odal 5073 Masfjorden 1693 Vaksdal 4154 Modalen 361 Balestrand 1431 Flekkefjord 8878 Vestnes 6390 Hoeyanger 4502 Lardal 2419 Sveio 4672 Selje 2999 Nes_Akershus Oestre Toten Hurdal 2602 Vindafjord 4700 Horten Vaaler_Hedmark 3924 Gjemnes 2700 Tingvoll 3105 Lunner 8505 Vennesla Naustdal 2682 Haa Rakkestad 7284 Eigersund Hole 5229 Lillehammer Bamble Oevre Eiker Marnardal 2167 Siljan 2372 Vanylven 3693 Gjerstad 2500 Aremark 1425 Askvoll 3229 Vestre Slidre 2245 Skaun 6063 Sokndal 3309 Iveland 1154 Agdenes 1799 Fet 9567 Haegebostad 1594 Sykkylven 7446 Sandnes Evje og Hornnes 3305 Sauherad 4323 Stordal 1007 Jondal 1078 Grimstad Strand Osteroey 7207 Vegaarshei 1854 Haram 8715 Oelen 3420 Eide 3304 Lindesnes 4484 Smoela 2195 Kroedsherad 2151 Krageroe Tysnes 2825 Tysvaer 9370 Hyllestad 1526 Malvik Mandal Klaebu 5279 Granvin 1008 Farsund 9479 Enebakk 9297 Time Risoer 6909 Boemlo Jevnaker 6335 Andebu 5083 Fitjar 2895 Samnanger 2322 Eidsberg Froeya 4114 Klepp Vestre Toten Ulstein 6795 Stord Hornindal 1197 Songdalen 5556 Vestby Karmoey Averoey 5448 Hoboel 4557 Lillesand 9043 Boe_Telemark 5249 Leikanger 2209 Soegne 9547 Skodje 3597 Roemskog 667 Solund 875 Fjell Tvedestrand 5889 Sund 5537 Tustna 1006 Sola Frei 5301 Raade 6465 Askoey Frosta 2493 Sula 7453 Vaagsoey 6218 Midsund 1939 Haugesund Os_Hordaland Aukra 3050 Oerland 5136 Mosvik 888 Bokn 769 Austevoll 4451 Sande_Moere 2576 Finnoey 2772 Hvaler 3773 Heroey_Moere 8386 Hareid 4658 Giske 6591 Austrheim 2527 Sandoey 1274 Kristiansund FLORO LISTA ROROS ORLAND FYRESDAL NOTODDEN TROLLHATTAN 3064 Hedmark 3063 Oppland 3032 Telemark 3031 Buskerud 3051 Hordaland 3081 Sør-Trøndelag 2031 Göteborg 3043 Aust-Agder 2062 Karlstad 3052 Sogn og Fjordane 3041 Rogaland 3053 Møre og Romsdal 3042 Vest-Agder 2072 Östersund 3021 Østfold 3012 Akershus 3082 Nord-Trøndelag 2063 Borlänge 3033 Vestfold Kilometers Potentials for High-Speed Services Examined Variants

21 Potentials for High-Speed Services Examined Variants Froeya ORLAND Leksvik Mosvik Oerland Verdal Rissa Frosta Agdenes 2493 Levanger Nord-Trøndelag Hitra Snillfjord Smoela Meraaker Malvik Trondheim12095 Stjoerdal Orkdal Skaun Aure Hemne 6063 Klaebu Tustna Selbu Kristiansund Melhus Rindal Halsa 2101 Meldal Tydal Frei Östersund Fraena Averoey5301 Tingvoll Sør-Trøndelag Holtaalen Gjemnes 3105 Eide Rennebu 2132 Aukra Surnadal Midtre Gauldal Sandoey Midsund Molde Giske Haram Sunndal ROROS 6591 Roeros Rauma Vestnes Møre og Romsdal Os_Hedmark Skodje Ulstein 6390 Oppdal 2087 Heroey_Moere Nesset Sula Stordal Sykkylven 1007 Tynset Sande_Moere Hareid Tolga Norddal Oersta Selje Lesja Folldal 2999 Vanylven Hornindal Stranda Dovre Engerdal Vaagsoey Volda Alvdal Eid Skjaak Borlänge Bremanger Sel Rendalen 4031 Stryn Flora Lom FLORO Gloppen Naustdal Luster Joelster Vaagaa Nord-Fron Stor-Elvdal Askvoll 3052 Sogn og Fjordane Soer-Fron Ringebu Foerde Hedmark Aardal Fjaler Leikanger 3063 Oppland Gaular 5631 Trysil Gausdal Oeyer Solund Hyllestad Balestrand Sogndal Vang 6794 Oeystre Slidre Hoeyanger 3114 Lillehammer Aamot Vik Vestre Slidre Ringsaker 2881 Laerdal Elverum Gulen Etnedal Nordre Land Austrheim Modalen Hemsedal 6847 Loeten Nord-Aurdal Masfjorden 1909 Gjoevik Hamar Lindaas 1693 Vaksdal 4154 Aurland Aal Vaaler_Hedmark Aasnes Gol 7779 Voss Ulvik 4375 Soendre Land Oestre Toten Osteroey Stange Soer-Aurdal Granvin Hol Nes_Buskerud 3265 Askoey Vestre Toten Kvam Nord-Odal Bergen 8334 Eidfjord Flaa Gran 5073 Grue Hurdal 5275 Samnanger 2602 Eidsvoll Ullensvang Jevnaker Fjell Buskerud Lunner Fusa OSLO/GARDERMOEN Sund Jondal Nore og Uvdal Kroedsherad Sigdal 2151 Os_Hordaland 3051 Hordaland 3537 Ringerike Soer-Odal Kongsvinger Austevoll Kvinnherad Rollag Hole Nes_Akershus Odda Tinn Akershus Tysnes Modum Oslo Eidskog Fitjar Flesberg Fet Vinje Lier 9567 Aurskog-Hoeland Stord Boemlo16516 Hjartdal Enebakk Etne 1633 Drammen Roemskog Oelen 3904 Sauda NotoddenOevre Eiker Hoboel Haugesund Sveio Vindafjord NOTODDEN Eidsberg Karlstad 4700 Vestby Suldal 3032 Telemark Seljord Boe_Telemark 3901 Kongsberg 2919 Horten Moss Bykle Tokke Marker Lardal Østfold Kviteseid Sauherad 2419 Raade Tysvaer Siljan Rakkestad Finnoey Toensberg Sarpsborg Karmoey Hjelmeland Nome Skien Aremark Bokn 3043 Aust-Agder FYRESDAL Andebu Valle Fredrikstad Strand Nissedal Porsgrunn Rogaland 1408 Sandefjord Halden Fyresdal Stavanger Drangedal Larvik Hvaler Forsand Sola Bygland Krageroe 3033 Vestfold Sandnes Bamble Sirdal Gjerstad Klepp 2500 Gjesdal Aamli Risoer Bjerkreim Aaseral 1801 Vegaarshei 6909 Haa Time Froland Kvinesdal3042 Vest-Agder 4672 Tvedestrand Lund Evje og Hornnes Göteborg Haegebostad Eigersund Birkenes Arendal Flekkefjord Iveland Sokndal 8878 Vennesla 1154 Grimstad TROLLHATTAN Marnardal Songdalen Lyngdal 2167 Lillesand 5556 Farsund Lindesnes 4484 Kristiansand LISTA Kilometers MandalSoegne Demand on Individual Markets Average Section Load Number of passengers/day (both directions) 1,000 5,000 Average Section Load (passengers per day, both directions) for Different Variants of High-speed Lines Forecast 2020 Market segment (OD) Individual Markets Oslo - Vestfold South Oslo - Telemark East Oslo - Kristiansand Kristiansand - Stavanger Oslo - Stavanger Stavanger - Bergen Oslo - Bergen Bergen - Trondheim Oslo - Lillehammer Oslo - Hamar/Ringsaker Oslo - Trondheim Oslo - Stockholm Oslo - Østfold South Oslo - Gøteborg Combined Markets INTRAPLAN Consult GmbH HSR Norway Market Study 22. Nov 06 Page 11

22 Potentials for High-Speed Services Examined Variants Froeya ORLAND Leksvik Mosvik Oerland Verdal Rissa Frosta Agdenes 2493 Levanger Nord-Trøndelag Hitra Snillfjord Smoela Meraaker Malvik Trondheim12095 Stjoerdal Orkdal Skaun Aure Hemne 6063 Klaebu Tustna Selbu Kristiansund Melhus Rindal Halsa 2101 Meldal Tydal Frei Östersund Fraena Averoey5301 Tingvoll Sør-Trøndelag Holtaalen Gjemnes 3105 Eide Rennebu 2132 Aukra Surnadal Midtre Gauldal Sandoey Midsund Molde Giske Haram Sunndal ROROS 6591 Roeros Rauma Vestnes Møre og Romsdal Os_Hedmark Skodje Ulstein 6390 Oppdal 2087 Heroey_Moere Nesset Sula Stordal Sykkylven 1007 Tynset Sande_Moere Hareid Tolga Norddal Oersta Selje Lesja Folldal 2999 Vanylven Hornindal Stranda Dovre Engerdal Vaagsoey Volda Alvdal Eid Skjaak Borlänge Bremanger Sel Rendalen 4031 Stryn Flora Lom FLORO Gloppen Naustdal Luster Joelster Vaagaa Nord-Fron Stor-Elvdal Askvoll 3052 Sogn og Fjordane Soer-Fron Ringebu Foerde Hedmark Aardal Fjaler Leikanger 3063 Oppland Gaular 5631 Trysil Gausdal Oeyer Solund Hyllestad Balestrand Sogndal Vang 6794 Oeystre Slidre Hoeyanger 3114 Lillehammer Aamot Vik Vestre Slidre Ringsaker 2881 Laerdal Elverum Gulen Etnedal Nordre Land Austrheim Modalen Hemsedal 6847 Loeten Nord-Aurdal Masfjorden 1909 Gjoevik Hamar Lindaas 1693 Vaksdal 4154 Aurland Aal Vaaler_Hedmark Aasnes Gol 7779 Voss Ulvik 4375 Soendre Land Oestre Toten Osteroey Stange Soer-Aurdal Granvin Hol Nes_Buskerud 3265 Askoey Vestre Toten Kvam Nord-Odal Bergen 8334 Eidfjord Flaa Gran 5073 Grue Hurdal 5275 Samnanger 2602 Eidsvoll Ullensvang Jevnaker Fjell Buskerud Lunner Fusa OSLO/GARDERMOEN Sund Jondal Nore og Uvdal Kroedsherad Sigdal 2151 Os_Hordaland 3051 Hordaland 3537 Ringerike Soer-Odal Kongsvinger Austevoll Kvinnherad Rollag Hole Nes_Akershus Odda Tinn Akershus Tysnes Modum Oslo Eidskog Fitjar Flesberg Fet Vinje Lier 9567 Aurskog-Hoeland Stord Boemlo16516 Hjartdal Enebakk Etne 1633 Drammen Roemskog Oelen 3904 Sauda NotoddenOevre Eiker Hoboel Haugesund Sveio Vindafjord NOTODDEN Eidsberg Karlstad 4700 Vestby Suldal 3032 Telemark Seljord Boe_Telemark 3901 Kongsberg 2919 Horten Moss Bykle Tokke Marker Lardal Østfold Kviteseid Sauherad 2419 Raade Tysvaer Siljan Rakkestad Finnoey Toensberg Sarpsborg Karmoey Hjelmeland Nome Skien Aremark Bokn 3043 Aust-Agder FYRESDAL Andebu Valle Fredrikstad Strand Nissedal Porsgrunn Rogaland 1408 Sandefjord Halden Fyresdal Stavanger Drangedal Larvik Hvaler Forsand Sola Bygland Krageroe 3033 Vestfold Sandnes Bamble Sirdal Gjerstad Klepp 2500 Gjesdal Aamli Risoer Bjerkreim Aaseral 1801 Vegaarshei 6909 Haa Time Froland Kvinesdal3042 Vest-Agder 4672 Tvedestrand Lund Evje og Hornnes Göteborg Haegebostad Eigersund Birkenes Arendal Flekkefjord Iveland Sokndal 8878 Vennesla 1154 Grimstad TROLLHATTAN Marnardal Songdalen Lyngdal 2167 Lillesand 5556 Farsund Lindesnes 4484 Kristiansand LISTA Kilometers MandalSoegne Classifying the Markets Average Section Load Number of passengers/day (both directions) 1,000 less than lower limit* 5,000 more than lower limit* * lower limit: 4,000 passengers/day Average Section Load (passengers per day, both directions) for Different Variants of High-speed Lines Forecast 2020 Market segment (OD) Individual Markets Oslo - Vestfold South Oslo - Telemark East Oslo - Kristiansand Kristiansand - Stavanger Oslo - Stavanger Stavanger - Bergen Oslo - Bergen Bergen - Trondheim Oslo - Lillehammer Oslo - Hamar/Ringsaker Oslo - Trondheim Oslo - Stockholm Oslo - Østfold South Oslo - Gøteborg Combined Markets INTRAPLAN Consult GmbH HSR Norway Market Study 22. Nov 06 Page 12

23 Potentials for High-Speed Services Examined Variants Froeya ORLAND Leksvik Mosvik Oerland Verdal Rissa Frosta Agdenes 2493 Levanger Nord-Trøndelag Hitra Snillfjord Smoela Meraaker Malvik Trondheim12095 Stjoerdal Orkdal Skaun Aure Hemne 6063 Klaebu Tustna Selbu Kristiansund Melhus Rindal Halsa 2101 Meldal Tydal Frei Östersund Fraena Averoey5301 Tingvoll Sør-Trøndelag Holtaalen Gjemnes 3105 Eide Rennebu 2132 Aukra Surnadal Midtre Gauldal Sandoey Midsund Molde Giske Haram Sunndal ROROS 6591 Roeros Rauma Vestnes Møre og Romsdal Os_Hedmark Skodje Ulstein 6390 Oppdal 2087 Heroey_Moere Nesset Sula Stordal Sykkylven 1007 Tynset Sande_Moere Hareid Tolga Norddal Oersta Selje Lesja Folldal 2999 Vanylven Hornindal Stranda Dovre Engerdal Vaagsoey Volda Alvdal Eid Skjaak Borlänge Bremanger Sel Rendalen 4031 Stryn Flora Lom FLORO Gloppen Naustdal Luster Joelster Vaagaa Nord-Fron Stor-Elvdal Askvoll 3052 Sogn og Fjordane Soer-Fron Ringebu Foerde Hedmark Aardal Fjaler Leikanger 3063 Oppland Gaular 5631 Trysil Gausdal Oeyer Solund Hyllestad Balestrand Sogndal Vang 6794 Oeystre Slidre Hoeyanger 3114 Lillehammer Aamot Vik Vestre Slidre Ringsaker 2881 Laerdal Elverum Gulen Etnedal Nordre Land Austrheim Modalen Hemsedal 6847 Loeten Nord-Aurdal Masfjorden 1909 Gjoevik Hamar Lindaas 1693 Vaksdal 4154 Aurland Aal Vaaler_Hedmark Aasnes Gol 7779 Voss Ulvik 4375 Soendre Land Oestre Toten Osteroey Stange Soer-Aurdal Granvin Hol Nes_Buskerud 3265 Askoey Vestre Toten Kvam Nord-Odal Bergen 8334 Eidfjord Flaa Gran 5073 Grue Hurdal 5275 Samnanger 2602 Eidsvoll Ullensvang Jevnaker Fjell Buskerud Lunner Fusa OSLO/GARDERMOEN Sund Jondal Nore og Uvdal Kroedsherad Sigdal 2151 Os_Hordaland 3051 Hordaland 3537 Ringerike Soer-Odal Kongsvinger Austevoll Kvinnherad Rollag Hole Nes_Akershus Odda Tinn Akershus Tysnes Modum Oslo Eidskog Fitjar Flesberg Fet Vinje Lier 9567 Aurskog-Hoeland Stord Boemlo16516 Hjartdal Enebakk Etne 1633 Drammen Roemskog Oelen 3904 Sauda NotoddenOevre Eiker Hoboel Haugesund Sveio Vindafjord NOTODDEN Eidsberg Karlstad 4700 Vestby Suldal 3032 Telemark Seljord Boe_Telemark 3901 Kongsberg 2919 Horten Moss Bykle Tokke Marker Lardal Østfold Kviteseid Sauherad 2419 Raade Tysvaer Siljan Rakkestad Finnoey Toensberg Sarpsborg Karmoey Hjelmeland Nome Skien Aremark Bokn 3043 Aust-Agder FYRESDAL Andebu Valle Fredrikstad Strand Nissedal Porsgrunn Rogaland 1408 Sandefjord Halden Fyresdal Stavanger Drangedal Larvik Hvaler Forsand Sola Bygland Krageroe 3033 Vestfold Sandnes Bamble Sirdal Gjerstad Klepp 2500 Gjesdal Aamli Risoer Bjerkreim Aaseral 1801 Vegaarshei 6909 Haa Time Froland Kvinesdal3042 Vest-Agder 4672 Tvedestrand Lund Evje og Hornnes Göteborg Haegebostad Eigersund Birkenes Arendal Flekkefjord Iveland Sokndal 8878 Vennesla 1154 Grimstad TROLLHATTAN Marnardal Songdalen Lyngdal 2167 Lillesand 5556 Farsund Lindesnes 4484 Kristiansand LISTA Kilometers MandalSoegne Including Regional Markets Average Section Load Number of passengers/day (both directions) 1,000 less than lower limit* 5,000 more than lower limit* * lower limit: 4,000 passengers/day Average Section Load (passengers per day, both directions) for Different Variants of High-speed Lines Forecast 2020 Market segment (OD) Individual Markets Oslo - Vestfold South Oslo - Telemark East Oslo - Kristiansand Kristiansand - Stavanger Oslo - Stavanger Stavanger - Bergen Oslo - Bergen Bergen - Trondheim Oslo - Lillehammer Oslo - Hamar/Ringsaker Oslo - Trondheim Oslo - Stockholm Oslo - Østfold South Oslo - Gøteborg Combined Markets INTRAPLAN Consult GmbH HSR Norway Market Study 22. Nov 06 Page 13