OP-ACT Workshop 14 februar, Notodden

Transcription

1 Settlement Attractive ness Production Visitors Knut Vareide Telemark Research Institute OP-ACT Workshop 14 februar, Notodden

2 Settlement Attractiveness Production Visitors

3

4 2, Notodden had a shrinking population, but has grown lately. 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 Population Notodden Yearly change ,5-1, , Population(right axis) and yearly change in percent (left axis) for Notodden

5 Two ways of measuring growth: 2, ,1 4,0 2,0 1,5 1,0 Population Notodden Yearly change ,0 0,0 - Share of Norway Change share 3,8 3,6 3,4 3,2 0, ,0 - -0,5-1, ,0-0,0-0,1 2,8 2,6 2,4 2,2-1, ,1 2, Population as number of persons Population as share of the nation

6 150 Immigration keeps Notodden from shrinking. Notodden does not attract migration from other parts of Norway Birth balance Net domestic migration Net immigration Population change in Notodden, decomposed.

7 113 The number of jobs has declined in Notodden since Notodden Norge 110, , Development in number of jobs in Notodden and Norway

8 Notodden is a shrinking city The question is why And what to do about it - options for actions

9

10 Settlement Every place is attractive In one way or another Production Visitors

11 Production: Businesses that exports products or services out of the place. Settlement Attractiveness for settlement leads to population growth More jobs in local businesses Visitors create businesses in retail, restaurants, hotels and culture/entertainment. Growth in the number of jobs in other businesses Production Attractiveness for production and visitors gives wrowth in the number of jobs Visitors

12 A shrinking number of jobs in businesses that export products and services Growing number of jobs in businesses for visitors Local businesses grows fastest Local businesses Visitors Production Attractiveness for visitors and settlement is becoming more important Development of the number of jobs, indexed 2000=

13 Settlement Notoddens strongest side is attraciveness for visitors Production Visitors Notodden Attractiveness profile for Notodden The numbers is Notoddens rank among the 430 municipalities in Norway.

14 Attractiveness for production: Businesses based on natural resources and manufacturing are declining. Technological services are growing fast Technological services Manufacturing Natural resources Technological services needs competent workers, not resources, infrastructure, large areas, etc Development in the number of jobs, indexed 2000=

15 1200 Industri natur Tekn tjen Notodden has had a drastic reduction in the number of jobs in the production businesses since Not enough jobs in the fast growing technological services to counter decline in manufacturing and agriculture Development of the number of jobs in production businesses in Notodden

16 175 Attractiveness for visitors Entertainment and culture are fastgrowing Entertainment/culture Retail Restaurants Hotels Retail and restaurants grows The number of jobs in hotels are declining Development of the number of jobs in different kinds of visitor businesses, indexed so that the level in 2000=100.

17 Notodden has a growing number of jobs in retail. Notodden attracts visitors from the neighbourhood municipalities for shopping. Traditional tourism is shrinking. Visitor businesses in Notodden are declining Aktivitet Handel Overnatting Servering Development of the number of jobs in the visitors businesses.

18

19 Net domestic migration % of populatin 5 The 83 regions in Norway For some, jobs is not enough Low growth in number of jobs Positive net migration High growth in number of jobs Positive net migration 0 For others, they grow anyway Some regions need both: More jobs and higher attractivity Low growth in number of jobs Negative net migration High growth in number of jobs Negative net migration Growth in number of jobs %

20 Net omestic migration % of populatin 5 4 The line is the statistical normal relation between growth and net migration. Regions above the line are attractive Regions below are not attractive y = 0,3066x - 1,0409 R² = 0, Growth in number of jobs %

21 A regions attractivity is measured by its distance from the normal

22 Netto innenlands flytting Alle kommuner Notodden: Decline in the number of jobs while the rest of the country is growing. But no out-migration Telemark Lineær (Alle kommuner) Bamble Siljan Notodden Skien Seljord Bø Porsgrunn Nissedal Kragerø Hjartdal Kviteseid Drangedal Sauherad Fyresdal Vinje Means that Notodden must be attractive for settlement Tinn Tokke Nome y = 0,155x - 1,1165 R² = 0, Endring arbeidsplasser

23 Summary The development of places is a result of the attractiveness for: Settlement Visitors Producion (for export)

24 Attractiveness for Notodden the last 10 years: Attractive for settlement Not attractive for visitors or production. Siljan Setttlement Seljord Bø (Telem.) Visitors Fyresdal Produkction Skien Drangedal Tokke Notodden Vinje Sauherad Hjartdal Kragerø Kviteseid Porsgrunn Nissedal Nome Bamble Tinn Sum of attraciveness for the three dimensions for municipalities in Telemark.

25 Strategic considerations: Go with the flow: Attractiveness for settlement

26 Why are some regions more attractive? Statistical analyses show that attractive regions have: 1. High house construction (stimulate house construction) 2. Many cafes, restaurants and pubs (centre development) 3. Many commuters (improve communications)

27 Attractive regions for settlement don t have: Beautiful nature, or any specific nature qualities (coastline, climate,,,,) A wellknown name, good image or high reputation Strong sosial or cultural identity Good public services Low criminality, or good score on other welfare indicators Clean environment Low unemployment rate Many cultural institutions

28 Attractiveness for settlement often means an increase in the number of commuters. For inhabitants of Notodden, Kongsberg has the highest and a growing number of commuters. Kongsberg Oslo Sauherad Hjartdal Skien Sokkelen Bø Porsgrunn Tinn Number of commuters living in Notodden and commuting to different municipalities

29 Strategic considerations 2: Concentrate on the strengths: Attractiveness for visitors

30 How to enhance attractiveness for visitors: 1.Stimulate building of second houses 2.Get the locals to use local supply of services, entertainment and shops. 3.Attract people from the adjacent cities 4.Traditional tourism? 5.Image and reputation?

31 How to enhance attractiveness for production: (focus on strengthening the weakest side) 1.Stimulate innovations, or network or clusters for innovation 2.Stimulate new establishments 3.Infrastructure, industrial areas etc. 4.Attractiveness for settlement?

32 32