TECHNICAL GUIDE FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF A REGIONAL CLIMATE INFORMATION SYSTEM APPLIED TO THE AGRICULTURAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE ANDEAN COUNTRIES

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2 TECHNICAL GUIDE FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF A REGIONAL CLIMATE INFORMATION SYSTEM APPLIED TO THE AGRICULTURAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE ANDEAN COUNTRIES PROJECT IADB ATN/OC RG Funded by: Inter-American Development Bank Regional Public Goods Executing Agency: INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH CENTER ON EL NIÑO Escobedo #1204 y 9 de Octubre Edificio Fundación El Universo, 1er piso Phone: (593 4) Fax: (593 4) P.O. Box # Guayaquil-Ecuador INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH CENTRE ON EL NIÑO - CIIFEN 104

3 International Research Center on El Niño (2009) It is allowed to reproduce and communicate this guide as long as the source is referenced correctly and it is not used for commercial purposes. Some copyrights Concept, Design & Infographics 2009, by Leonardo Briones Rojas Title page José Benito Valarezo Loor Photo Abigail Alvarado, Patricio López, Borja Santos Print Gráficas Hernández Cía. Ltda. Cuenca, Ecuador December, 2009 To refer the whole Technical Guide: Martínez, R., Mascarenhas, A., Alvarado, A., (ed)., Technical Guide for the Implementation of a Regional Climate Information System Applied to the Agricultural Risk Management in the Andean Countries. International Research Center on El Niño CIIFEN, p To refer one chapter of the Technical Guide: Ycaza P., Manobanda N., Implementation of Agro-climatic Risk Maps, p On the Technical Guide for the Implementation of a Regional Climate Information System Applied to the Agricultural Risk Management in the Andean Countries., Martínez, R., Mascarenhas, A., Alvarado, A., (ed)., International Research Center on El Niño CIIFEN, p ISBN: This publication was made by the International Research Center for El Niño CIIFEN under the Project ATN/OC RG Climatic information Applied to Risk Management in Andean Countries, funded by the Inter-American Development Bank, IDB, under the initiative of Regional Public Goods (2006). 103 TECHNICAL GUIDE FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF A REGIONAL CLIMATE INFORMATION SYSTEM APPLIED TO AGRICULTU- RAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE ANDEAN COUNTRIES

4 TECHNICAL GUIDE FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF A REGIONAL CLIMATE INFORMATION SYSTEM APPLIED TO AGRICULTURAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE ANDEAN COUNTRIES PROJECT IADB ATN/OC RG Funded by: Inter-American Development Bank Executing Agency: INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH CENTRE ON EL NIÑO And The National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela OCTOBER, 2009

5 Editorial Team: Rodney Martínez Güingla Affonso Da Silveira Mascarenhas Jr. Abigail Alvarado Almeida Project Team: General Coordinator Rodney Martínez Güingla Financial Administration and Acquisitions Roma Lalama Franco Information Assistant Nadia Manobanda Herrera Regional Agriculturist Risk Angel Llerena Hidalgo Local Risk Experts Bolivia Silvia Coca Uzuna Chile Claudio Fernandez Pino Colombia José Boshell Villamarín Ecuador Emilio Comte Saltos Perú Oscar Quincho Ramos Venezuela Pedro Rodriguez González Data Digitalization Bolivia José Valeriano Maldonado Luis Bustillos Paz Chile Viviana Urbina Guerrero Patricia Berrios Leiva Colombia Carlos Torres Triana Paola Bulla Portuguez Ecuador Carlos Naranjo Silva Ana Zambrano Vera Perú Luis Zevallos Carhuaz Juan Bazo Zambrano Venezuela Vickmary Nuñez Oropeza Gabriel Diaz Loreto Systems Engineering Katiusca Briones Estebanez Risk Maps Harold Troya Pasquel Climatical Data Processing Pilar Cornejo Rodriguez Local Experts on Information Management Bolivia Javier Caba Olguín Chile Miguel Egaña Colombia Juan Gómez Blanco Ecuador Emilio Comte Saltos Perú Juan Ramos Escate Venezuela Pedro Rodriguez González Statistical Modeling Marco Paredes Riveros Numerical Modeling Ángel Muñoz Solórzano Numerical Modeling Ricardo Marcelo Da Silva Virtual Core Red de Universidades del Eje Cafetero Alma Mater Data Base Centro de Tecnologías de la Información - ESPOL CIIFEN Staff Project Counterpart International Patricio López Carmona International Affonso Da Silveira Mascarenhas Jr Geographic Information Systems Pilar Ycaza Olvera Mishell Herrera Cevallos Carlos Meza Baque Carlos Zambrano Alcívar Administration Mayra Mayorga López Evelyn Ortíz Sánchez Victor Hugo Larrea Alvarado Research Systems Abigail Alvarado Almeida Alexandra Rivadeneira Uyaguari Informatic Support Alberto Abad Eras Data and Products Management Juan José Nieto López

6 NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES BOLIVIA METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL NATIONAL SERVICE - SENAMHI Carlos Díaz Escobar Pablo Elmer Statistical Modeling Gualberto Carrasco Yaruska Castellón Nidia Zambrano Virginia Rocha Dynamic Modeling Gualberto Carrasco Erick Pereyra Ramiro Solíz Agro-Climatic Risk Maps Yaruska Castellón Oscar Puita CHILE METEOROLOGICAL DIRECTION OF CHILE - DMC Myrna Araneda Fuentes Gualterio Hugo Ogaz Agro-Climatic Risk Maps Patricio Lucabeche José Curihuinca Statistical Modeling Juan Quintana Dynamic Modeling Claudia Villarroel Roberto Hernández Information Systems Miguel Egaña COLOMBIA INSTITUTE FOR HYDROLOGICAL, METEOROLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES - IDEAM Carlos Costa Ricardo Lozano Ernesto Rangel Mantilla Christian Euscátegui Agro-Meteorological Analysis Gonzalo Hurtado Moreno Ruth Mayorga Márquez Modeling Gloria León Aristizábal Quality Analysis Ruth Correa Amaya

7 NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES ECUADOR NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY - INAMHI Carlos Lugo Raúl Mejía Flavio Ramos Agro-Climatic Risk Maps Fanny Friend Statistical Modeling Cristina Recalde Dynamic Modeling Jaime Cadena PERÚ NATIONAL SERVICE OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY - SENAMHI Wilar Gamarra Molina Darío Fierro Constantino Alarcón Statistical & Dynamic Modeling Carmen Reyes Bravo Juan Bazo Zambrano Information Systems Luis Zevallos Carhuaz Agro-Climatic Risk Maps Darío Fierro Zapata Kevin Sánchez Zavaleta Nelly Perez Díaz VENEZUELA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE BOLIVARIAN NATIONAL AVIATION Ramón Velásquez Araguayan Alexander Quintero Statistical & Dynamic Modeling Luis Monterrey Alexandra Mata Elddy Anselmi Data Systems and Digitalizing Richard Núñez Jenny Castillo Manuel González Agro-Climatic Risk Maps Carlos Ojeda Luis Monterrey César Yauca

8 INTRODUCTION Since it was established in January 2003, one of the most important mandates of the International Research Center on El Niño (CIIFEN) has been to build the necessary bridges between the climate information suppliers and the users from other sectors of the society. The ultimate goal is to use the benefits provided by earth observation, science and predictions in order to allow our society to live better. When we talk about risk management, it results in reduced loss of life and goods for development support. To review all the climate information to make it a tool for human welfare is not easy, it requires a holistic vision, inter-and trans-disciplinary dialogue and, above all, it requires breaking several paradigms. In 2003 the World Meteorological Organization, through its Division of Services and Climate Applications, organized, in alliance with CIIFEN, a regional workshop to identify the needs of climate information for the agricultural sector. This meeting provided us with essential information to generate (after several years) a regional proposal that addresses the needs of this important sector. In 2006, the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), under the modality of Regional Public Goods, approved the project entitled Climate Information Applied to Agricultural Risk Management in the Andean countries to be carried out by CIIFEN and the National Meteorological Services of Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela. After three years of efforts, regional cooperation and with the trust and support of the IADB, we can bear witness to this important initiative through this Technical Guide, which describes step by step how we implemented the system in each one of its components, including the learned lessons, sustainability strategies and future challenges. With deep gratitude to the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB)The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), The National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and the International Research Centre on El Niño (CIIFEN), we present the Technical Guide for the Implementation of a Regional Climate Information System Applied to Agriculture Risk Management in the Andean Countries. We hope that it can be replicated in other places around the world for the benefit of our society. Dr. Affonso Mascarenhas International CIIFEN Oc. Rodney Martinez Güingla Project Coordinator ATN/OC RG INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH CENTRE ON EL NIÑO - CIIFEN 107

9 INDEX Introduction Chapter I: Implementation of the Virtual Core for Climate Applications (VCCA) 1.1 Conceptual model 1.2 Technologic Platform VCCA Architecture Physical Infrastructure Logical Infrastructure 1.3 Applications That make up the VCCA Regional Climate Data Base Map Server Display of Climate Model Products Virtual Library 1.4 Implementation Process of Regional Climate Data Base Chapter II: Implementation of statistical modeling for climate prediction 2.1 Conceptual and methodological elements 2.2 Management to update the information of the Predicting Variables How to perform the Alternative Method for Forecast Updates Procedure for obtaining the sea surface temperature (SST) variable Procedure for obtaining the wind variable at altitude, geo-potential, temperature at mandatory levels. 2.3 Operating simultaneous predictors with CPT Climate Forecasting with Simultaneous Predictors 2.4 Decision criteria for managing the CPT results. 2.5 Considerations for the interpretation of terciles 2.6 FAQs related to CPT operation. Chapter III: Implementation of numerical models for climate prediction 3.1 Step by step installation and implementation procedures for MM5 and WRF models in Climate Mode Operating System Atmospheric Models MM CMM WRF CWRF TECHNICAL GUIDE FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF A REGIONAL CLIMATE INFORMATION SYSTEM APPLIED TO AGRICULTU- RAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE ANDEAN COUNTRIES

10 3.1.3 Oceanographic Models Displayers ROMS GRADS Vis5D 3.2 Implementation of Numerical Modeling for Climate Forecasting The Regional Group of Numerical Modeling Chapter IV: Implementation of Agro-Climatic Risk Maps 4.1 Definition of Risk 4.2 Conceptual Mathematical Model of Agro-Climatic risk 4.3 Components and Variables of Agro-Climatic Risk Thread Vulnerability 4.4 Project Application Areas 4.5 Information Requirements Agro-ecological Base mapping Thematic mapping Treatment of information Soil and climate characteristics in pilot areas 4.6. Agro-Climatic Risk Calculation 4.7. Agro-Cimatic risk in the Andean Countries Chapter V: Implementation of local systems of climate information 5.1 Conceptual and methodological elements. 5.2 Identification and mapping of key components. 5.3 Strategic Alliances 5.4 Strategic alliances with local authorities. 5.5 Strategic alliances with the private sector Journals Specialized in Agriculture Cell phone Company 5.6 Strategic alliances with the media. 5.7 Training Strategies INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH CENTRE ON EL NIÑO - CIIFEN 109

11 Chapter VI: Capacity building in Western South America 6.1 Regional Training Workshop on Climate Modeling statistics 6.2 Regional Training Workshop on Numerical Modeling for Climate predictors 6.3 Regional Training Workshop for Agro-Climatic Risk Mapping 6.4 Regional Workshop on Numerical Modeling of Weather and Climate II 6.5 International Training Workshop on Climate Data Processing Chapter VII: Performance Indicators. Chapter VIII: Learned Lessons Chapter IX: Future Actions Chapter X: Elements of Sustainability Bibliographic References TECHNICAL GUIDE FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF A REGIONAL CLIMATE INFORMATION SYSTEM APPLIED TO AGRICULTU- RAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE ANDEAN COUNTRIES