Opportunities and Challenges

Transcription

1 Current International Perspectives on Smart Grid Developments in Mexico in Light of Energy Reforms Opportunities and Challenges Presented to: Austin Electricity Conference UT Executive Education and Conference Center, 1900 University Ave, Austin, TX Peter K. Nance Que Advisors Page 1

2 DISCUSSION OUTLINE Items of Interest 1. Investor Outlook Electricity and Natural Gas Overview 2. Conclusions 3. Value Added by Que Advisors 4. Appendix Major Trends In North America Energy Page 2

3 Investor Outlook Page 3

4 ELECTRICITY AND NATURAL GAS OVERVIEW CFE View of Smart Grid Traditional Components, Changing Rules, Implication for Implementation Source: CFE Que Advisors Rethink.Redefine.Research. Confidential Do Not Distribute Page 4

5 ELECTRICITY AND NATURAL GAS OVERVIEW Smart Grid Development in Mexico Drivers, Who Is Involved Smart Grid development likely to be closely linked to the growth of renewable energy resources, enabling larger amount of variable resources to be integrated. Source: Que Advisors Acronym SENER SHCP SE SFP CFE CENACE CRE CONUEE PROFECO NOM Title/Function Ministry of Energy Ministry of the Treasury Ministry of the Economy Ministry of the Controller Modernization, Distribution, Customer Services, Operations ISO, including Planning, Transmission, Generation Regulatory Commission Energy Efficiency Commission Consumer Protection Agency Standards Organization Page 5

6 ELECTRICITY AND NATURAL GAS OVERVIEW Expected Developments Roadmap Multi-Disciplinary Planning Academia. Regulatory/Government. Industry. Initial Investments. Focus: Outage Detection. Poor Power Quality. Distribution Transformer Conditions Before Failure. Sensing Devices to Improve Telemetering. Benefits: Outage Detection. Voltage Management. Restoration. Power Quality Monitoring. Transformer Preventative Maintenance. Precision and Time-Stamped Meter Reading. Precision and Time-Stamped Consumption Information. Real-time Operational and Locational Information. Source: CRE, Que Advisors Que Advisors Rethink.Redefine.Research. Confidential Do Not Distribute Page 6

7 ELECTRICITY AND NATURAL GAS OVERVIEW Expected Developments Major Areas Consumers: Focus and Rights Privacy. Access to Information. Consumer Control Over the Use of Consumer Energy Data. Integration With Wholesale Markets: Focus: Security Concerns, Critical Infrastructure. Nodal Design, Medium and Long Term Planning Integration Needed. Integration with Transmission Planning Process. Challenges: Retail Subsidies. Redesigned Tariffs. Aggregation Rules and Detailed Regulations. Reliability Criteria and Metrics Increased Reliability? Source: CRE, Que Advisors Que Advisors Rethink.Redefine.Research. Confidential Do Not Distribute Page 7

8 ELECTRICITY AND NATURAL GAS OVERVIEW Investors During the Transition Observations About Power Deals Reviewed Type Description Status Traditional CFE RFP s Power generation and gas pipelines. Continue strong in 1H2016. Special Situations Border Gen/Transmission assets Continue of interest in 1H2016. Clean Energy Renewable generation. Slowed between 2H2014 and 2H2015; renewed activity 1H2016. Clean Energy Cogeneration projects. Continue of interest in 1H2016. Structures and economics vary. 1Q2016 auctions have shifted focus to investment under New rules for clean energy. Situation still challenging for combined cycle projects independent of CFE. Difficult to structure in the absence of PPAs and marketing entities. Project finance structures challenging; bias for larger amounts of equity; favors corporates. Overall, investment depends in part on market design specifics that CENACE and stakeholders develop as well as forthcoming policy vehicles. Source: Que Advisors Page 8

9 ELECTRICITY AND NATURAL GAS OVERVIEW First Clean Energy Auction Results - 1Q Wind Company Plant MW GWh State CF CEL (t) USD/MWh Acciona Energy El Cortijo ,000 Tamaulipas 40% 586 $42.90 Aldesa Chacabal I ,000 Yucatán 43% 113 $59.80 Aldesa Chacabal II ,000 Yucatán 45% 118 $59.80 Energía Ren. De la Energía Ren. De la Peninsula Peninsula ,000 Yucatán 35% 276 $66.00 Con. Energia Limpia 2010 Tizimín ,000 Yucatán 44% 292 $67.00 Subtotal ,586 1,385 $64.56 Source: CEANCE, Que Advisors Que Advisors Rethink.Redefine.Research. Confidential Do Not Distribute Page 9

10 ELECTRICITY AND NATURAL GAS OVERVIEW First Clean Energy Auction Results - 1Q Solar Company Plant MW GWh State CF CEL (t) USD/MWh Enel Green Power Villanueva ,000 Coahuila 34% 973 $35.50 Enel Green Power Villanueva ,000 Coahuila 34% 738 $38.40 Enel Green Power Don Jose ,000 Guanajuato 30% 539 $45.20 SunPower Guajiro ,000 Guanajuato 31% 264 $44.50 Recurrent Energy Aguascalientes Pot ,000 Yucatán 18% 141 $48.00 Sol de Insurgentes Sol de Insurgentes 23 61,000 Baja Calif Sur 30% 61 $48.10 JinkoSolAQ Las Viborillas ,000 Jalisco 32% 277 $47.40 JinkoSolAQ Concunul ,000 Yucatán 29% 176 $58.40 JinkoSolAQ San Ignacio 18 49,000 Yucatán 31% 49 $63.40 Vega SolAQ Ticul ,000 Yucatán 17% 725 $57.40 Photoemeris Kambul 30 55,000 Yucatán 21% 53 $68.60 Subtotal 1,718 4,018,000 3,996 $45.22 Source: CEANCE, Que Advisors Que Advisors Rethink.Redefine.Research. Confidential Do Not Distribute Page 10

11 ELECTRICITY AND NATURAL GAS OVERVIEW CFE 1 Lowering power losses in the national system 2 Enterprise Architecture for IT 3 Strengthening customer comm systems 4 Asset Management Systems 5 Institutional system of GIS Latin America/Caribbean Reliability Improvements Power Quality Improvements Improving revenue collection and assurance; reduction of commercial losses Power System Restoration Improvements Energy Efficiency Source: ESTA international survey of International Smart Grid Drivers, Que Advisors Smart Grid Drivers Vary Globally Europe/Eurasia Integration with Renewable Energy Demand Response and Management Reducing Operating and Maintenance Costs Integration of Distributed Energy Resources Power Quality Improvements Middle East/Africa Optimizing Energy Consumption Reducing Operating and Maintenance Costs Reducing Losses New and Improved Services for the Customer Improved Revenue Collection and Assurance Asia/Oceania Reliability Improvements Power Restoration Improvements Optimizing Energy Consumption Reduce Operating and Maintenance Cost Power Quality Improvements Additional Mexico-Specific Issues: Retail Customer Classes, Retail Subsidies, Energy Poverty, Unmet Demand, Market Rules in Transition, Interconnection Rules and Long Implementation, CEL Credits, Capacity Market Participation. Que Advisors Rethink.Redefine.Research. Confidential Do Not Distribute Page 11

12 Conclusions Page 12

13 CONCLUSIONS Mexico Electricity Sector Reform Milestones Reached Independence of system operator. General consensus on market design. First system expansion plan (PRODESEN ). Conceptual design for CFE separation. Start of operations for Spot Market Plan for CFE Restructuring First auction for long term clean energy and CEL contracts Next Steps First successful auction for long term conventional energy contracts Implementation of CFE Restructuring First contracts and associations for transmission Market enhancements Source: SENER, Que Advisors Page 13

14 CONCLUSIONS Mexico Electricity Sector Reform Smart Grid Issues to Watch For Reliability metrics. Reliability upgrades. Demand response and distributed resources are contemplated. Further clarity on bidding/aggregation processes developing. Development of more robust stakeholder processes. Scarcity pricing definition and management part of Stage 2 market. Certain adjudication functions of the Market Monitor to be determined. The role and structure of Supplemental Reserves and Ancillary Services as part of Stage 2 market. Implementation of forward products and contract terms envisioned energy, power ( capacity ), and clean energy especially longer or extendible. Settlement process of forward commitments between generators and capacity-responsible load serving entities. Details on CENACE and SENER establishment of a Clearinghouse. Our initial view is that product standardization will be difficult without a Clearinghouse in Stage 2. Source: SENER, Que Advisors Page 14

15 Appendix Major Trends in North America Energy Electricity Page 15

16 MAJOR TRENDS IN NORTH AMERICA ELECTRICITY Mexico Wholesale Production Costs Sample Region - CTCP MX Pesos MX Pesos USD USD % $23.13 $ % $25.27 $ % $27.08 $ % 1, $ $ % 2, , $ $ % 2, , $ $ % 2, , $ $ Max 4, , $ $ Min $19.68 $22.14 Med 1, $ $37.30 Avg 1, $83.16 $49.62 Constant Exchange Rate = $0.065 USD/Mx Peso /1 1/15 1/29 2/12 2/26 3/12 3/26 4/9 4/23 5/7 5/21 6/4 6/18 7/2 7/16 7/30 8/13 8/27 9/10 9/24 10/8 10/22 11/5 11/19 12/3 12/1712/ Source: CFE, CRE, Que Advisors Page 16

17 MAJOR TRENDS IN NORTH AMERICA ELECTRICITY Mexico Retail Energy Prices Existing Tariff Structures Retail electricity prices in Mexico vary widely between different consumer classes and regionally. Agriculture and Residential consumers have the lowest tariffs, with agriculture clients paying less than a third of the second least expensive group. Medium and large enterprises pay roughly the same tariffs as industrial and residential clients. Customers in the services and commercial sectors pay the highest retail tariffs Average Electricity Retail Tariff by Type of User (USD $/kwh at Constant Exchange Rate) Residential Services Commercial Agriculture Industrial Medium Enterprises Big Enterprises Source:. CFE, CRE, SENER, Que Advisors Page 17

18 MAJOR TRENDS IN NORTH AMERICA ELECTRICITY Mexico Electricity Sector Reform Initial Timeline Draft Market Rules issued February 24, 2015 End of 2015: Publication of Draft rules and market operations manual Late 2015: Restructuring of CFE January 1 st 2016: Wholesale market begins operation : Full market implementation Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Market CENACE s Creation SENER Contract Creation CRE Power Market Operation SENER First Market Rules SENER Transmission and Distribution Regulates Rates National Electric System Development Program SENER SENER Power Industry Regulations of the PI SENER Restructuring of the CFE SENER Terms of Separation of CFE SENER Clean Energy Guidelines on Clean Energy Requests for Interconnection SENER CENACE Clean Energy Requirements SENER Auctions for Basic Supplies Geothermal Round 0 SENER Geothermal Round 1 SENER CENACE Source: CFE, CRE, SENER, Que Advisors Page 18

19 MAJOR TRENDS IN NORTH AMERICA ELECTRICITY Historical Timeline Item Date Content Constitution Dec 2013 Competition in generation/retail; contracts and PPP Vertical and Horizontal separation Secondary Laws Aug 2014 Wholesale Electricity Market Independence of Regulators CENACE Aug 2014 Creation Decree Universal Service Sep 2014 Creation of the Electrification Fund Bylaws Oct 2014 Permit requirements, system planning process Clean Energy Oct 2014 Guidelines for granting CEC and establishing requirements Importation Dec 2014 Import rules prior to market start Source: SENER, Que Advisors Page 19

20 MAJOR TRENDS IN NORTH AMERICA ELECTRICITY Historical Timeline Item Date Content Market Rules Feb 2015 Electric Power Market Bases (consultation) Clean Energy Mar 2015 Clean Energy Certificate Requirements Interconnection Jun 2015 Interconnection Criteria Planning Aug 2015 System Expansion Program Associations Aug 2015 Designation of transmission projects For PPP Source: SENER, Que Advisors Page 20

21 MAJOR TRENDS IN NORTH AMERICA ELECTRICITY Timeline/Milestones Item Content Date DAH and RT Markets for Energy and AS Long Term Auctions for Capacity, Energy and Clean Energy Certificates Testing Operation Publication Adjudication Contracts Sep, 2015 Stage 1: Jan, Stage 2: 2017 and Oct, Q Assignment of Legacy FTRs Oct, 2015 FTR Auctions Capacity Market Testing Operation Testing Operation Sep, 2016 Stage 1: Oct, 2016 Stage 2: Jan, 2017 Oct, Q2016 Medium Term Energy and Capacity Auction Publication Oct, 2016 Source: SENER, Que Advisors Page 21

22 MAJOR TRENDS IN NORTH AMERICA ELECTRICITY Timeline/Milestones Item Content Date Clean Energy Certificate Market Testing Operation Source: SENER, Que Advisors Page 22