Income Tax Evasion, Inequality and Poverty

Transcription

1 Cyprus Economc Polcy Revew, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp (2008) Income Tax Evason, Inequalty and Poverty Panos Pasardes a and Alexandros Polycarpou b a Department of Economcs and Economcs Researc Centre, Unversty of Cyprus, and b Economcs Researc Centre, Unversty of Cyprus Abstract Ts paper uses a consumer demand based metod to estmate te extent to wc ouseolds n Cyprus under-report ter ncome from self-employment, captal ncome and ncome from agrculture. On te bass of tese estmates, te sze of black economy appears to be around 7 8% of GDP. We fnd tat ncome underreportng bases measures of nequalty and poverty downwards, suggestng tat egaltaran and antpoverty polces need to become more generous, but also more carefully targeted to avod false enttlement to socal benefts. Te g tax free ncome undoubtedly elps reduce te sze of te tax evason problem n Cyprus. Keywords: ncome under-reportng, black economy, tax free ncome, Cyprus. 1. Introducton Tax evason refers to te case wen a person, troug commsson of fraud, pays less tax tan te law mandates. Ts paper nvestgates te extent of ncome tax evason n Cyprus and examnes ow ts bases te measures of nequalty and poverty. Estmates of te sze of black (or underground) economy n Cyprus, were tax non-complance arses from, do not suggest tat ncome tax evason n Cyprus s, on average, ger tan tat estmated for oter countres (Georgou and Syrcas 1994, Scneder and Enste 2000 and Fet et al. 2006). Neverteless, as we dscuss later n ts paper, emprcal fndngs about te sze of te black economy sould be nterpreted wt cauton, gven te wde margns of error often assocated wt tem. Furtermore, t s not only te sze but also te sources and dstrbuton of tax evason tat matter. For example, tax evason can result n ger ncome nequalty wen concentrated among g-ncome ndvduals. Furtermore, tax non-complancy renders means-tested socal polces Correspondng autor. Address: Economcs Researc Centre, Unversty of Cyprus, P.O. Box 20537, 1678 Ncosa, Cyprus. E-mal: p.pasardes@ucy.ac.cy

2 38 neffectve, because g ncome ndvduals can falsely take-up benefts to wc tey are not enttled. Economc effcency can also be affected wen tax evason dstorts relatve returns to nputs (captal and/or labour) resultng n sub-optmal allocaton of resources n te economy. Measurng ncome under-reportng s dffcult, snce te wole motvaton bend ts non-complance act s to prevent te true ncome from beng sown n data avalable to oters. Researcers estmatng te sze of te black economy ave tred to sde-step ts problem by drawng on nformaton avalable n natonal accounts, tax audt data, tax amnesty data and survey data. Te resultng emprcal fndngs are often based on natonal accounts data, wt te sze of black economy reflectng te dfference between te recorded GDP and an estmate obtaned from monetary ndcators, suc as te rato of currency to demand deposts (Gutmann, 1977), te volume of ceque and currency transactons (Fege, 1979), and te currency rato (Tanz 1983). 1 Lackó (1996, 1998 and 1999) proposes an alternatve approac to estmatng te sze of te black economy, te so called pyscal nput metod, based on te assumpton tat te per capta ouseold electrcty consumpton n eac country depends lnearly on te per capta real consumpton of te ouseolds. Ts paper approaces te measurement of tax evason from a mcroeconomc perspectve, based on te dea tat dden economc actvty can be nferred from comparng te reported ncome wt an expendturebased estmate. Ts dea was frst appled by Pssardes and Weber (1989), wo use food expendture to estmate ncome under-reportng among te self-employed n te UK. Lyssotou, Pasardes and Stengos (2004) extend te Pssardes-Weber metod to te wole spectrum of consumer expendture, not just food. Tey clam tat ts as te advantage of yeldng more accurate estmates of tax evason tan te sngle commodty metod and can provde separate estmates of te under-reportng for eac source of ncome (self-employment, nvestment, second job etc). In secton 2 we use te Lyssotou-Pasardes-Stengos metod to estmate ncome tax evason n Cyprus. Secton 3 consders te mpact of ts tax evason on measured nequalty and poverty, wle secton 4 dscusses te results and compares tem wt results reported elsewere n te lterature. Secton 5 presents te man fndngs and conclusons of te paper. 1 Monetary metods for estmatng te sze of te black economy ave been crtczed for not beng based on teory, for usng questonable assumptons and for employng rater flawed econometrc tecnques (Tomas, 1999).

3 39 2. Income tax evason For te estmaton of te under reportng of ncome n Cyprus we use te Famly Expendture Surveys (FES) 2 to draw nformaton about te ncome, te expendture on varous goods and servces and te demograpc and oter caracterstcs of ndvduals and ouseolds. Te man advantage of ts dataset s tat t as detaled nformaton about te ouseolds expendtures on non-durable goods and servces wc allow us to use a demand system analyss for estmatng te ncome under-reportng n Cyprus. Te dsadvantage s tat te ncome reported n te survey s probably not as under-reported as te ncome reported to te Inland Revenue Department (IRD) for tax purposes and tus te estmated underreportng coeffcents and tax evason may be based downwards. We sall return to ts pont n te dscusson of te results n te last secton of te paper. Table 1 presents te under-reported ncome estmated from applyng te Lyssotou, Pasardes and Stengos (2004) metod descrbed n te Appendx. Income from employment s used as reference,.e. te bencmark from wc te under-reportng of ncome from oter sources s assessed. Furtermore, te estmates n Table 1 are obtaned from tree models, eac correspondng to a dfferent breakdown of total ncome. Ts s motvated by te fact tat teory (consumer) based estmates of te black economy are caractersed by a trade-off between accuracy n estmaton and dsaggregaton of ncome by source: we perform estmaton wt aggregated ncome to obtan a general but accurate estmate of te black economy; and estmaton wt dsaggregated ncome to obtan results tat may not be partcularly accurate, neverteless sow wc sources of ncome are more responsble for tax evason. Te sources of ncome used ere are tose avalable n te FES data. In model 1 we break down te dsposable ncome of ndvduals nto ncome from self-employment (ncludng ncome from agrculture), ncome from employment and benefts and ncome from captal. Estmates based on ts model sow tat ouseolds under-report ter 2 Te FES s conducted by te Statstcal Servce of Cyprus durng te years 2002/03 on a sample of 2990 ouseolds. Only ouseolds wt two-adults between te age of 21 and 60 and wt two cldren are used n te emprcal analyss to avod preference eterogenety nterferng wt te estmaton of black economy parameters. Houseolds wt only one employee as well as ouseolds wt no nformaton about ter ncome or wt ncome from lottery, wrtng rgts, loans, gratuty, sell of busness were also excluded. Te above exclusons reduced te sample sze to 278 ouseolds.

4 40 self employment ncome by 44.8% Tat s, for every 1 euro tey receve from self-employment actvtes, tey only report 55 cents for taxaton. Te captal ncome reported by ouseolds s under-reported by about 40.3%. In model 2, ncome from agrculture s separated from self-employment ncome. Te under reportng percentage of self-employment ncome (excludng ncome from agrculture) s now decreased to 38.3%, wle ncome from agrculture s found to be under-reported by 59.9%. In ts model te under reportng of captal ncome s estmated to be 35.5% (wc s not statstcally dfferent from te estmate n model 1). In model 3, te self employment ncome s dvded furter to self employment ncome for ouseolds wt ead n wte collar occupaton and self employment ncome for ouseolds wt ead n blue collar occupaton. Based on ts model, blue collar ouseolds under-report ter self employment ncome more tan wte collar ouseolds (39% vs. 35.7%), owever, ts dfference s not statstcally sgnfcant. On te bass of te under-reportng parameters n Table 1, ncome underreportng actvtes n Cyprus range from around 8.1% (model 1) to 6.7% (model 3) of GDP and te tax revenue from ouseolds are reduced on average between 34,7% (model 1) and 27,4% (model 3). 3 TABLE 1 Estmated under-reportng of ncome Income source Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Self-employment ncome 44.8% 38.3% Head n wte collar occupaton 35.7% Head n blue collar occupaton 39.0% Income from agrculture 59.9% 59.4% Captal ncome 40.3% 35.5% 35.2% Income under-reportng (as % of GDP) 8.1% 7.0% 6.7% 3 Tese estmates are based on te tax-beneft model of te Economcs Researc Centre for te year 2002 (Andreou et al., 2007).

5 41 3. Inequalty and poverty In ts secton we study te effect of ncome under-reportng on measures of nequalty and poverty. More specfcally, we compute and compare varous poverty and nequalty measures usng te ncome reported n te data and te ncome corrected for under-reportng usng te estmated percentages reported n Table 1. In Table 2 we present tree measures of ncome nequalty calculated wt te reported and corrected ncome: te sares of aggregate ouseold ncome by ncome group, te percentle ratos and te Gn ndex. All tese measures sow tat nequalty ncreases after we correct for ncome underreportng. Overall, usng te corrected n place of te reported ncome, decreases te ncome sares of te lower and ncreases te ncome sares of te ger ncome groups. Ts suggests tat ndvduals n te ger ncome groups under-report ter ncome more tan ndvduals n te lower ncome groups. TABLE 2 Income nequalty measures Reported Income Corrected ncome Income percentle Mean Mean Sare Sare (Euro) (Euro) Lowest 10% % % 11% - 20% % % 21% - 30% % % 31% - 40% % % 41% - 50% % % 51% - 60% % % 61% - 70% % % 71% - 80% % % 81% - 90% % % Hgest 10% % % Percentle Ratos p90/p10 p90/p50 p10/p50 p75/p25 Reported Income Corrected ncome Gn Index

6 42 Te rato of te 90 t to 10 t percentle ncreases, ndcatng tat te ncome gap between te poorest and te rcest wdens. Smlarly, te rato of te 90 t percentle to te medan ncome ncreases, albet by a small margn; wle te rato of te 10 t percentle to te medan decreases. Fnally, te rato of te upper mddle percentle (75 t ) to te lower mddle percentle (25 t ) ncreases, agan, ndcatng an ncrease n ncome gap. Te Gn Index, wc summarses te dsperson of ncome sares and ranges between 0 (perfect equalty) to 1 (all ncome s receved by one ouseold) also sows ncreased nequalty wen ncomes are corrected for underreportng. To assess te effect of ncome under-reportng on te measurement of poverty we adopt te European Unon tresold,.e. we consder ouseolds to be below te poverty lne wen ter equvalent ncome 4 s less tat 60% of te medan. Usng te reported ncome, te poverty lne n Cyprus s 7137EUR and te poverty rate (te percentage of ouseolds below te poverty lne) s 20%; wereas usng te corrected (for underreportng) ncome te poverty lne ncreases to 7906EUR and te poverty rate to 22%. Ts suggests tat te under-reportng of ncome causes an under-estmaton of te poverty rate n Cyprus by about 2 percentage ponts. Table 3 presents te mean ncome and te poverty rate calculated wt te reported and corrected ncome for varous groups of ouseolds classfed by te occupaton of ead. Te most pronounced dfference n te poverty rate wen ncomes are corrected for under-reportng, s found among ouseolds wt ead n agrculture or fsery. Te mean ncome of tese ouseolds ncreases by nearly 58% wen corrected for under-reportng, resultng n a dramatc drop n ter poverty rate from 12% to 1%, and rases questons about te generally eld vew tat agrcultural workers are among te poorest people n Cyprus. Oter notable canges arsng from correctng ncomes for under-reportng s te ncrease n te poverty rate among ouseolds wt non-worker eads or wt eads n elementary occupatons. Tus, ouseolds n tese categores suffer from more severe poverty tan tat estmated from statstcs based on reported ncome. 4 Equvalent ncome s te ncome of te ouseold wen te famly sze and composton s taken nto consderaton.

7 43 TABLE 3 Mean ncome and poverty rate by occupaton Mean Income (Euro per annum) Poverty Rate Occupaton Reported Corrected Cange Reported Corrected Cange Clerks % 7% 8% 1% Agrcultural workers % 12% 1% -11% Legslators, Managers % 0% 0% 0% Professonals, Tecncans % 3% 4% 1% Sale persons % 11% 9% -2% Personal servces workers % 11% 11% 0% Crafts, macne operators % 7% 8% 1% Elementary occupatons % 16% 19% 3% Non workers % 47% 53% 6% All % 20% 22% 2% 4. Dscusson Attempts to estmate te sze of te black or underground economy found n te lterature are based on wdely vared approaces resultng n very dfferent emprcal fndngs. Ts s llustrated by te fgures reported n Table 4, sowng estmates of te underground economy usng four dfferent metods; two macroeconomc and two mcroeconomc approaces 5. Te currency demand metod compares actual currency n crculaton wt one mpled by reported ncome, wle te electrcty demand uses te evdent relatonsp between per capta ncome and electrcty consumpton. Comparng te results obtaned from te two macroeconomc metods, te one based on te pyscal nput suggests tat te black economy n Cyprus s 21%, te trd gest among te countres ncluded n te table; wle te correspondng estmate obtaned from te currency demand metod s only 6.5%, te second lowest among te countres ncluded n te table. Te currency demand metod also gves substantally ger estmates of te black economy tan te pyscal nput metod n oter countres (e.g. 5 As noted by Scneder et al. (2000) a uge range of estmates of te sadow economy for a country n a gven tme span are acevable usng dfferent calculaton metods. Hence one sould be very careful wen nterpretng te sze of te sadow economy n a country usng only one metod.

8 44 Austra and Ireland). In contrast, Greece, Sweden and Canada are among countres were te pyscal nput metod gves rse to ger black economy estmates tan te currency demand metod. Comparson of te two mcro (consumer expendture) metods cannot gve conclusve evdence about systematc dfferences n ter fndngs because mcrobased approaces to estmatng te sze of black economy are less popular and only a few studes report results based on tese metods. TABLE 4 Estmates of underground economy as a % of GDP usng dfferent metods Macro Metods Mcro Metods (Consumer Expendture) Countres Currency Demand 1 Electrcty Demand 2 Sngle Equaton 3 Demand System 4 Austra Belgum Canada Cyprus Denmark Fnland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Neterlands Portugal Span Sweden UK Notes: 1 Scneder and Enste (2000) and Fet et al. (2006) for ; Jonson et al. (1998) for Greece and Portugal for Pyscal nput metod, Scneder and Enste (2000). 3 Mrus and Smt (1997) for Canada , Joansson (2000) for Fnland , Apel (1994) for Sweden 1988, Pssardes and Weber (1989) for UK Lyssotou et al. (2004) for UK 1993 and autors own calculatons for Cyprus One explanaton bend te dfferences n te results obtaned from usng alternatve metods to estmate te sze of te black economy can, of course, be samplng errors, so tat te possblty tat tese dfferences are statstcally nsgnfcant (.e. arse from not precse estmates) cannot be excluded. Ts may be partcularly te case wt te currency demand

9 45 metod, gven tat some of te emprcal fndngs obtaned from ts metod are counter-ntutve, e.g. te very low estmate of te black economy n Cyprus vs-a-vs te correspondng g estmate for Sweden. Anoter possble explanaton bend te dfferences n te resutls reported n Table 4 may be te fact tat alternatve metods employed for te estmaton of te black economy do not measure te same tng: te mcroeconomc approaces focus on tax evason wereas te macro-economc approaces focus on te black (underground) economy. Altoug tese two concepts are sometmes used synonymously, black economy s wder n content, n te sense tat t can nclude unrecorded transactons tat do not ncur tax losses for te government. Terefore, estmates of ncome tax evason tend to account for a smaller percentage of GDP tan estmates of te black economy. Furtermore, among te mcro-based estmates tose usng a sngle consumer demand equaton can understate te sze of tax evason because te sare of food (te tem of consumer expendture most often used n ts case) can dffer between te self-employed and oter ndvduals for reasons oter tan dfferences n ncome. As argued by Lyssotou et al. (2004), suc dfferences can result n a downward based estmate of tax evason and a complete demand system s needed to avod ts bas. A furter explanaton for te dfferences n te results reported n Table 4 can be tat te taxable ncome of te self-employed n te Famly Expendture Surveys may not be so muc under-reported as te selfemployed ncome recorded n te Inland Revenue accounts. Terefore mcro-based estmates of te black economy drawng on data from te Famly Expendture Surveys can under-estmate te sze of te tax evason. For nstance, te rato of employee to employer/self-employed ncome n Cyprus s found to be, on average, 0.81 n te Famly Expendture Surveys and 1.47 n te Inland Revenue statstcs n Ts suggests tat tax evason can be 181% ger tan tat estmated usng te Famly Expendture Surveys data. 5. Conclusons Te sze of te black economy n Cyprus, as n most oter countres, vares wt te metod and data used for ts estmaton. Our analyss suggests tat ouseolds under-report self employment ncome by 44.8% and captal ncome by 40.3%. Te gest under-reportng (59.9%) s assocated wt agrcultural ncome. Tese results suggest tat between 27.4% and 34.7% of tax revenue from ouseolds s lost due to ncome underreportng, mplyng tat te sze of black economy s around 6.7% to 8.1%

10 46 of GDP. Furtermore, tese fgures are lkely to understate te true sze of ncome tax non-complance n Cyprus because te average ncome n te data used n our emprcal analyss s below te average ncome n te tax revenue statstcs by a factor of 1.8. In order to fnd ow ncome under-reportng affects measures of nequalty and poverty, we compute and compare varous suc measures before and after we correct ncome for under-reportng. Te results sow tat usng te corrected n place of te reported ncome, ncreases nequalty and poverty because ndvduals wt g ncome under-report ter ncome more tan tose wt low ncome. Ts suggests tat egaltaran and antpoverty polces need to: () become more generous to compensate for te fact tat measured nequalty and poverty underestmate te true extent of tese problems; and () complement mean testng wt ndcators oter tan reported ncome to avod false enttlement to socal benefts by persons under-reportng ter ncome. Fnally, n nterpretng our results, one as to consder tat we focus on measurng ncome tax evason. Gven te g tax free ncome n Cyprus (and te skewness of ncome dstrbuton) te majorty of workers are below te ncome tax tresold. Terefore, our emprcal fndngs refer to economc actvty at te top alf of GDP and are lower tan oter estmates of te black economy, coverng dden actvty at all levels of ncome. Indeed, a g tax free ncome can elp not only reduce tax evason drectly, but also troug lmtng te potental tax evaders among ger earners, tereby makng tax complance measures less costly to mplement. Appendx Here we descrbe n bref te metod proposed by Lyssotou, Pasardes and Stengos (2004) wc s used n ts paper for te estmaton of te black economy n te case of Cyprus. Assumng mplctly separable preference and Quadratc Logartmc unt cost of nondurable goods, te expendture sares can be wrtten as a system of Engel curves, ω α + β + * * ( lny ) λ ( lny ) 2 = (1) * were α, β and λ depend on prces and Y s te true ncome of te t ouseold consstng of K components accordng to ter source, e.g. ncome from employment, self-employment, nvestment, second job etc. Eac component of true ncome s proportonal to ts observed counterpart

11 47 Y * k = θ Y k k, K=1,, k, (2) were Y k s te observed level of te k t component of ncome and θ k 1 sows te factor by wc te observed ncome must be multpled n order to become equal to te true ncome. Ten budget sares can be wrtten as ( lny + ln( θ y ) + λ ( lny ln( θ y ) 2 ω = α + β k k + k k (3) were Y = Y and k k k Y y k =. Y Te ntuton bend te above modellng of under-reportng s as follows. Suppose ouseold as a k t component of ncome suc tatθ k > 1. Ten * lny > lny so tat te ouseold wll beave as f earnng a ger ncome,.e. allocate more expendture to luxures and less expendture to necesstes tan oterwse. Te parameter θ k sows te extent to wc te observed k t component of ncome wll ave to ncrease to compensate for te understatement of te observed ouseold ncome,.e make te allocaton of expendture on * nondurable luxures and necesstes as f lny = lny. For te demand system estmaton we apply Seemngly Unrelated Regresson (SUR) on sx categores of non-durable goods (food, ealt, utltes, clotng, transport/ communcaton and mscellaneous goods/oter servces). Te sources of ncome are wages, self-employment ncome, ncome from benefts and ncome from captal. Te estmated budget sares are ω = α + + λ ω s b c α [ ln ln( )] j j z j + β Y + θ 0 y + θ1 y + θ 2 y + θ 3 y ω s b c 2 [ ln Y + ln( θ y + θ y + θ y + θ y )] + u, ω s b were y, y y and captal proportons of ouseold s ncome, k 3 k k y c are te wage, self-employment, beneft and (4) z j te vector of ouseold caracterstcs and u an error term. Assumng tat wage and beneft ncome s correctly reported tenθ 0 and θ = 2 1. Terefore te parameters θ 1 and θ 3 are nterpreted as te black economy coeffcents. References Andreou, M., Nkoladou, N., Polycarpou, A. and Hadjspyrou, S. (2007) Taxbeneft mcrosmulaton model for te Cyprus economy, Economc Polcy Paper 12-07, Economcs Researc Centre, Unversty of Cyprus.

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