Russian S&T Foresight 2030: conception and first results

Transcription

1 Higher School of Economics Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge Foresight Centre Russian S&T Foresight 2030: conception and first results Alexander Chulok 3 rd EURussia Innovation Forum together with 21 st EBN Annual Congress June 2012, Lappeenranta, Finland

2 S&T Foresight: Contents - historical overview - general framework - two groups of results photo - networks of experts First results of S&T Foresight 2030: - global trends to be addressed - scientific areas of emerging technologies - white spots and breakthrough windows - challenges and windows of opportunities for mature technologies S&T Foresight outcomes for: - research organizations photo - innovations - policy implementation Higher School of Economics, Moscow

3 S&T Foresight in Russian S&T and Innovation policy: a historical overview : Initiation of Foresight Projects in Russia (HSE) National level Assessment of the development prospects of the priority areas of science Science and technology in Russia 2010 Regional level Industry level RF critical technologies Long-term S&T Foresight 2030 Roadmap for power engineering I Cycle Basic Research Forecast Priorities of innovation development for Republic of Bashkortostan Long-term priorities of the heating development Electricity Forecast Science and Technology Energy Foresight Forecast of ICT development: 2020 RF critical technologies II Cycle Scenarios of the electricity development Forecast of ICT development: 2030 Priorities of innovation development of natural resource complex Foresight priorities of technological modernization (Fund "Skolkovo") III Cycle Scenarios and long-term priorities of scientific technological cooperation between Russia and the EU Strategy of the Samara Region Foresight for Ekaterinburg Priorities of EU-Russia cooperation in nanoelectronics Energy Foresight photo Foresight Horizon Corporate level State-owned companies Roadmaps and Foresight Foresight for nanotechnologies (Rusnano) Forecast of broadband dualuse access technologies development Nanotechnology Roadmaps Foresight and roadmaps in the aircraft industry photo

4 Priorities for S&T and innovation Mission-oriented: Technology modernisation Functional: Restructuring S&T system Thematic: Critical technologies, S&T programmes Energy efficiency Nuclear technologies Space technologies Medicine Strategic information technologies Research universities Innovation infrastructure at universities National research centres Centres of excellence Information and telecommunication systems Living systems Industry of nanosystems Transportation and aerospace systems Rational use of nature Energy efficiency and energy saving 4 ISSEK HSE

5 S&T Foresight for Russian S&T and innovation policy: possible options for the future Grand Challenges and Grand Responses Policy mix New instruments for S&T policy Demand for new skills Multidisciplinary and multicultural research Changing National Innovation System S&T Foresight Evidence -based analysis Integration of quantitative and qualitative methods Prioritizing Communication Involving stakeholders Integration to policy Enhancing Infrastructure, networks New economy New consumers' behavior Changing society photo 5 Higher School Higher of School Economics, of Economics Moscow 2012

6 National S&T Foresight: databases and experts networks Database of experts: more than 8000 All largest research centers and universities Number of respondents Industry 40 regions ISSEK HSE more than 800 International expert networks International Advisory Board on Foresight (HSE) UNIDO, OECD The Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville, Spain The University of Manchester, UK 6

7 Building sustainable expert networks: Foresight Network of Foresight Centres: centres at universities Organizational Structure USE OF NATURE (Moscow State University) TRANSPORT & AEROSPACE (Russian State University of Aviation Technology) ICT (S.Petesburg NRU of Information Technologies, Mechanics and Optics ) Coordinator (HSE) ENERGY (National Research Nuclear University MEPhI) NANO (Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology ) BIO (Siberian State Medical University ) Centre 6 Centre 5 Centre 1 University - Coordinator Centre 4 Centre 2 Centre 3 Universities Business Industrial Science Academic Science Foreign experts State representatives Virtual network

8 3 rd cycle: application-driven S&T Foresight Global trends and challenges of S&T development Scenarios of long-term S&T development Identification of points of effort s application Roadmaps for priorities realisation External factors Alternatives System of priorities Perspective market segments Innovative products and services S&T Products New technological solutions Markets Highest importance and S&T potential R&D ISSEK HSE 8

9 3 rd S&T Foresight cycle: Key features Methodology: combination of technology push and market pull Wider coverage of the sectors of the Russian economy Assessing future demand for skills Building a sustainable participants networks: expert panels, Foresight centres at leading universities Engagement of businesses: technology platforms, programmes of innovation development of state owned companies, business associations Closer interaction with everyday policy making in S&T and innovation: presentation of outputs Wide dissemination and discussion of results, building sustainable feedback ISSEK HSE Moving from informing policies to designing them 9

10 3 rd S&T Foresight cycle: major components Macroeconomic trends S&T resources (R&D organisations, fixed assets, human resources) Roadmaps for sectors and S&T priority areas S&T Foresight Global and national factors of long-term development Strategies for innovation development of sectors Policy recommendations for S&T and innovation ISSEK HSE 10

11 Anticipated outputs S&T Scientific results Breakthrough technologies Innovation products and services Assessment of Russia vis-à-vis world leaders Demand for technologies from innovation markets Urgent demand for S&T for achieving development goals New markets Risks, barriers, limitations Russia s competitive advantages Major sectors of economy Scenarios Strategic forks Technological priorities ISSEK HSE 11

12 S&T Foresight: Two groups of results Priority areas Key challenges until 2030 Technologies and technological solutions contribution to responses Description of technology packages Energy and energy efficiency ICT Biotechnologies Medicine and health New materials and nanotechnology Transport and space systems Rational use of nature Pull Technology packages Young sprouts Push Key features Groups of products and technologies with a potential to deal with critical problems and major challenges Breakthrough technologies and product groups expected to be particularly important in Description format 1. Leading countries, Russian teams 2. Management solutions (policies) 3. Time of emergence and application 4. Financial resources 5. Infrastructure solutions 6. Required competencies

13 Grand Challenges: what S&T Foresight should address? Water security / vulnerability Education standards / investments Energy security / vulnerability Urban and rural dynamics Economic prosperity & dynamics Social exclusion, poverty, affluence Social pathologies & ethics Coexistence & conflicts Governance, democracy, citizenship Crime, justice, corruption, transparency Science / technology impacts & ethics 12 Work-Life balance and mental health Source: iknowfuture, the Millennium Project 10 3 Diseases / health and well being 4 Sustainability and climate change Ageing & other demographic tensions Food security / diet & culture Globalisation vs. Localisation Social cohesion and diversity Technological security, hazard & risk Behavioural change, lifestyles Innovation, knowledge & technology 13

14 National S&T Foresight : scientific areas of emerging technologies Human genome description for prophylactic and personalised medicine Medicine and health Environment preservation and safety technologies Exploration, prospecting and integrated use of mineral and hydrocarbon resources Environment management Bioelectrodynamics and X-ray medicine Biomedical cellular technologies Human proteomics Biodegradable and composite medical materials Molecular diagnostics for prophylactic and personalised medicine Exploration, development and research of promising drug candidates by assigning molecular pharmacological targets Promising technologies for environment monitoring and assessment, and forecasting of natural and anthropogenic emergencies Exploration and utilisation of oceanic, Arctic and Antarctic resources Forest biotechnologies Aquabioculture Industrial biotechnologies Computer architectures and systems Telecommunication technologies Biotechnology Development of methodologies for biotech research Development of integrated transport environment Information and telecommunication systems Algorithms and software Food production biotechnologies Agribiotechnologies Component base, electronic devices, robotics Predictive modelling, techniques and tools for developing and maintaining promising systems Environmental biotechnologies Technologies, prototypes and stands for developing promising transport and space systems Functional materials Transport and space systems Information processing technologies Construction materials Computer modelling of materials and processes Increasing transport systems safety and environmental properties Information security Promising energy technologies Modelling promising energy technologies and systems New materials and nanotechnology Hybrid materials and convergent technologies Materials diagnostics Energy efficiency and power saving Intelligent energy systems of the future Efficient use of power New materials and catalysts for power engineering of the future 14

15 National S&T Foresight : Challenges and windows of opportunities for technologies Medicine and health Transport systems Energy Global trends Increase of cancer rates Proliferation of city diseases Lack of organs and tissues for transplanting Stricter environmental requirements Increased energy saving requirements Safety on transport Increased global energy consumption Exhaustion of cheap conventional energy resources Vulnerability of power infrastructure Russian challenges High mortality rate Small towns and villages do not have advanced medical facilities nearby Inefficient rehabilitation system Low energy efficiency and reliability of vehicles Inefficient monocentric radial structure of the transportation network Low oil recovery ratio at traditional oilfields Low efficiency of gas steam-turbine plants High energy waste in the grids S&T areas Gene and cell therapy Drug delivery and localisation systems Biocompatible nondegradable materials Hybrid automobile engines Low-carbon sustainable vehicles Intelligent transport networks Highly efficient heat and power natural gas based plants New technologies for burning organic fuels New hydrogen production, storage and consumption technologies

16 Scientific areas: white spots and breakthrough windows Technologies for separating and purifying gaseous mixtures and liquids Next-generation engineering systems for energy-efficient buildings Detoxication of air and water environments Wireless energy transfer Traffic flows and transport systems intelligent management systems models Software systems prototypes for realtime analysis of complex 3D images and videos Tissue equivalents and artificial live human organs Techniques to cultivate marine organisms cell lines Significantly below the world level: white spots Technologies for mathematical modelling and optimisation of nextgeneration power generating and related installations schemes and parameters Functional structure composite materials for dental and maxillofacial implants High-temperature and durable turbine buckets Opportunities to increase competencies to the world level Biotechnological processes for producing industrial and medical bioproducts in plants and animals Bio-testing and bio-indication techniques offering increased sensitivity and selectivity Computational systems component prototypes New distributed computing principles Materials diagnostics Technologies for deep processing of organic fuels Human proteome profiling Climate and climate change modelling Opportunities to join forces and increase efficiency Bio ICT Use of Nature World leader High-temperature superconductivity Chemistry of solids Nanosize catalysts and membranes for deep integrated processing of raw materials State-of-the-art Transport & space Energy Medicine Nano 16

17 Results: Foresight-based investment decisions Higher School of Economics, Moscow

18 Results: optional strategies based on roadmaps Import of technologies Technical requirements Price vs quality Markets Technological chain PRODUCT R&D R&D Manufacturing Product Market 18

19 S&T Foresight Research organizations Research organizations Formulation of basic research plans Formulation of R&D agenda Research universities Development of research agenda Development of education programs Participation in joint R&D photo 19

20 S&T Foresight Innovation Large firms Revelation of challenges and windows of opportunities Development of innovation strategies Development of technology modernization plans SMEs Comprehension of S&T priorities Participation in joint research projects NIS infrastructure Funds; Development institutes Participation in revising and realization of S&T priorities Development of joint R&D agenda, support for strategic initiatives 20 20

21 S&T Foresight Policy Implementation Russian S&T policy framework till 2020 RF Strategy for innovation development Strategy-2020 Government and federal target programs Innovation infrastructure at universities Bridging universities and industry Establishing international labs at universities Strategies for regions and cities development Technology platforms Corporate innovation development programs Clusters development programs 21

22 Thank you for your attention! 22