Relationships of Complexity Research and Futures Studies. Dr. Auli Keskinen EXYSTENCE Seminar Nov 2004

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1 Relationships of Complexity Research and Futures Studies Dr. Auli Keskinen EXYSTENCE Seminar Nov 2004

2 Dr. Auli Keskinen Director, R&D Sustainable Development & Information Society & Futures Research Ministry of the Environment, Po Box 35, FIN Government Tel Research Visitor in November, 2000 at Santa Fe Institute Exploring Complexity KOKOPELLI 1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, NM Tel Dr. Auli Keskinen, May 2001

3 Complexity Seminar on 13 Oct 2003 Stuart Kauffman, Santa Fe, NM Researchers at Hotel Kämp, Helsinki

4 Futures Research Social Sciences Statistics Sociology Political Science Socio-psychology Philosophy Economy Anthropology History Science Cultural Sciences Futures Research Technology Natural Sciences Humanistic Sciences Dr. Auli Keskinen, May 2001

Anthropology History Science Cultural Sciences Futures

5 Methodologies of Multidisciplinarity Phenomenon-orientation Impact Assessment Studies Multistakeholder Studies Interdisciplinary Studies

6 Phenomenon-oriented Research Domains Approach Characteristics System Image Applications Complexity Research Dynamic Evolutive, Emergent Dynamic Nets Self-organisation Control, Sets, Games Cell Automata Simulation A-life, Fuzzy Logic Impact Research Interaction Temporal & Spatial Scaling What-if Scenarios Adaptive Nets Impact Assessment Systems Studies Change Studies Multistakeholder Studies Multi-interaction Collaboration Undeterminism Joint Interest Area Agentbased Modeling Hyper-cycles Networking Innovation Knowledge Manag. Heterarchies Multidisciplinary Research Paradigm Shift Fractal Ethics, Openness Transdisciplinarity Interdisciplinarity Chaos Cross and Joint Impact New Integrative Sciences Futures Research Emansipatory Holism Process-oriented Soft Systems Thinking Participatory Action Research Alternative Futures Images Foresight Studies Change Manag.

Studies Multi-interaction Collaboration Undeterminism Joint Interest Area Agentbased Modeling Hyper-cycles Networking Innovation Knowledge Manag.

7 FUTURES RESEARCH Epistemology Approach to Data, Information and Knowledge (DINK): 1. Acquisition and creation of new DINK 2. Reassessing and reprosessing existing DINK 3. Recognising variations of knowledge, e.g. tacit

8 Futures Research Methods Scenario building - strategic planning - PESTE/SWIFT - analyses Delphi techniques - expert survey Weak signals recognition - emerging change Governing Change Participatory Action Research Soft systems thinking Dynamic Systems Analyses Alternative futures images creation Hyper-cycle processes Barometers Cross-impact and Join Impact Analyses Heterarchy processes ->

Participatory Action Research Soft systems thinking Dynamic Systems Analyses Alternative futures

9 Heterarchy processes * futures workshop * innovation brainstorming, self-organising, * token-tolerant, maintaining "trouble makers" * aiming to WINWIN Games * problem focus - conflict management * interaction processes of proactive agents - common pool * disciplined / controlled visioning

to WINWIN Games * problem focus - conflict management * interaction

10 Joint Interest Area, Approaches and Starting Points Approach Approach Discipline Joint Interest Area Common Competence Discipline Starting Point Starting Point Dr. Auli Keskinen, 1999

11 Paradigm Scheme of Futures Research Holism Heterarchy Hyper-cycle Humanism

12 Mosaic Metaphor: networked knowledge

13 Hierachical topology of the international web cache of Internet

14 Map of Internet : colored by IP addresses

15 A map of some Internet routers and the physical connections between them. This map was created by tracing the route taken by numerous packets of data sent from one computer to many others. It reveals that a few highly connected nodes keep the network together. (Picture credit: W R Cheswick/Bell Labs) Dos. Auli Keskinen,

16 Hierachical topology of the international web cache

17 An Example of Social Network: Image of Social links in Canberra, Australia

18 Contagion in Human Networks A contagion spreads quickly through a human network -- aided by well connected nodes. The distribution of links in the network is key to how rapidly a contagion spreads. Some contagions are good -- new ideas, innovations. Others are bad -- viruses and disease.

The distribution of links in the network is key to how rapidly a contagion

19 Self-organised Criticality Dr. Auli Keskinen, 2002

20 On the Edge of Mandelbrot Fractal Dos. Auli Keskinen, 2003 Source: Internet

21 Nanoscience Organic/Inorganic Interfaces Microfluidics High Performance Materials Stem Cell Technology New Integrative Sciences Protonics Molecular Manufacturing Diagnostic Devices Biosensors Implants MEMS Robotics Molecular Medicine Semantic Web Human Augmentation New I/O Imaging Tagging Presence Energy Storage New Memories Wireless Technology Web Services Emergent Computing Collaboration Photovoltaics Premium Power New Architectures Flow Tracking Location Technology Wind Turbines Real-time Energy Pricing Distributed Energy Production Biomimetics Metabolics, Proteonics, Genomics Bioinformatics Micro Turbines Fuel Cells Micro Fuel Cells Wave Power ZEST Systems Biology Genetic Therapies Sterling Engine Clean Nuclear Eco-Efficiency Vectors and Viruses Nutraceuticals Carbon Sequestering Biofuels Source: Institute for the Future: The New World Map: A Quick Tour of the Ten-Year Technology Horizon, 2002 Prepared: Dr. Auli Keskinen

22 New Integrative R&D 2010: New Theory on Consciousness Optical Fibres Replace Electronic Cables 2015: First Quantum Calculator in the Market Interactive Materials Nanotube is World's Strongest Concstruction 2001: Research on Nanotubes Receives over 15 Bill. Euro in the USA 2015: Nanotechnology Used in Production Lines Molecules 2001: Human GenomeMap Computational Sciences 2005: Gene Chips Find Genetic Risks Biosensors Genetics Biomechanics Biofuels Molecular Electronics 2010: Micro Nuclear Plants 2010: Cancer Mortality Greatly Reduced 2008: New Ear from Stem Cells 2004: Bones and Tissues Replaced by Artificial Materials 2007: Fuel Cells in Cars Source: Institute for the Future: Technology Horizons 2002 Prepared: Dr. Auli Keskinen, 2004

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