Actual, 1997 to 2001 Projected. Included are three quasi-public academies Norwich Free Academy, Gilbert School and Woodstock Academy.

Transcription

1 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST Vol.2 No.2 Housing Update... 3 Leading & Coincident Indicators 5 Economic Indicators Comparative Regional Data... 9 Economic Indicator Trends Nonfarm Empl. Estimates Labor Force Estimates Hours and Earnings Housing Permit Activity Technical Notes At a Glance A joint publication of the Connecticut Department of Labor & the Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development FEBRUARY 1997 Preliminary numbers show a total of 24,100 jobs were created over the year ending December. (p.6) The unemployment rate rose to 5.2 percent in December, but remained below last year s 5.6 percent. (p.6) Retail sales were up 10.5 percent through October from the same period a year earlier. (p.7) Housing permits decreased in 1996 by 7.1 percent. (p.7) First quarter personal income is forecasted to grow 5.0 percent over the same period in (p.6) The Consumer Price Index in 1996 rose 3.0 percent, up from 2.8 percent in (p.8) IN THIS ISSUE High school graduates profiled by Pam Casiano and Judy Thompson, Connecticut Department of Education n 1996, there were 24,743 adults received General Educational Development (GED) or high I graduates from local public school credit diplomas, and Public High School Graduates, 1992 to 1996 there were an estimated Actual, 1997 to 2001 Projected 5,000 graduates from nonpublic high schools in the state Included are three quasi-public academies Norwich Free Academy, Gilbert School and Woodstock Academy. high schools and 1,576 from regional vocational-technical schools in Connecticut. This total, 26,319, is over 7,000 lower than 10 years earlier, but is expected to be the bottom of a long-term decline in the number of graduates (Table 1). As shown in the graph above, beginning in 1997, the number of graduates is expected to rise, and increase to 30,170 by the year While not profiled in this article, an additional 5,382 TABLE 1: GRADUATES Public Voc-Tech Year Schools Schools Total ,743 1,576 26, ,781 1,665 26, ,523 1,807 26, ,998 1,801 26, ,276 1,804 27, ,415 1,776 27, ,479 2,048 28, ,320 2,192 31, ,906 2,135 33, ,129 2,282 33, ,479 2,479 32,958 TABLE 2 Those No. of Attending Work Year Graduates College Force ,319 19,159 5, ,446 19,048 5, ,330 18,596 5, ,799 18,723 5, ,080 18,696 5, ,298 18,970 10,122 Higher Proportions of Graduates Continuing Education In 1996, the highest proportion of Connecticut graduates ever went on to two-year and four-year colleges and universities. Correspondingly, there was a continued decline in the number and percentage of graduates directly entering the workforce. Graduates in workforce activities include those in civilian or military employment and those who are unemployed but seeking employment. In 1996, 19,159 graduates (72.8%) continued their education at two-year and four-year colleges and universities (Table 2). This was up from 1986 when 18,970 graduates (58.7%) continued their education. In 1996, an additional 792 graduates (3%) went on to vocational schools or were in other primarily educational activities. THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

2 High school graduates... In 1996, 15,003 (57.0%) attended four-year schools and 4,024 (15.3%) attended two-year schools. The majority of graduates attending four-year colleges, 8,653, went to out-of-state schools. This continued a longterm trend of graduates continuing their education at out-of-state schools. Fewer Graduates Directly Enter Workforce In 1996, 5,280 graduates directly entered the workforce. This represented 20.1% of the total 26,319 graduates: 15.9% of the total were local public school graduates and 4.1% were vocational-technical school graduates. Of these, 779 entered the military, 4,136 were employed and 365 were unemployed. In 1986, when a higher percentage and a larger number of graduates entered the work force directly upon graduation than in any succeeding years, over 9,500, or 31.3% entered the workforce directly upon high school completion. Vocational-Technical Schools Vocational-Technical (VT) schools offer a wide range of 2 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST programs providing occupational preparation as well as academic high school completion requirements. In the last 10 years the number of vocational-technical school graduates has dropped much more (36%) than the number of local public graduates (19%). Over the same time, a higher percentage of vocational-technical school graduates continued their education following graduation. In 1996, over 26% of VT graduates continued their education following graduation, while in % did so. Fewer graduates and a higher proportion continuing their education have resulted in fewer vocationaltechnical school graduates directly entering the labor force. In 1996, 1,105 graduates sought employment, while 10 years earlier over 1,500 did so. Table 3 below provides detailed follow-up information for TABLE 3 Number No. with Job No. with Job Voc-Tech Number of Pursuing Number in Related to Unrelated to Course Graduates Education Military Training Training Auto Body Repair Auto Mechanics Carpentry Culinary Drafting Arch Drafting Mach Electrical Electro-Mechanical Electronics Fashion Technology Graphic Commun Hairdress/Cosmetgy Heating Vent & AC Manufacturing Tech Plumbing & Heating VT schools offer the following programs which, in 1995, had fewer than 25 graduates: Baking, Engine Repair, Health Tech, Hotel Tech, Masonry, Metal Trades Tech, Microcomputer SW Tech, Paint & Decorating, and Welding graduates of vocationaltechnical programs with 25 or more graduates. (1996 program detail not yet analyzed). Table 4 on page 4 shows detailed information on the aftergraduation activities of the 1996 graduating class. Continued on page 4 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST The Connecticut Economic Digest is published monthly by the Connecticut Department of Labor, Office of Research and the Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development, Research Division. Its purpose is to regularly provide users with a comprehensive source for the most current, up-to-date data available on the workforce and economy of the state, within perspectives of the region and nation. The views expressed by authors are theirs alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the Departments of Labor or Economic and Community Development. To receive this publication free of charge write to: The Connecticut Economic Digest, Connecticut Department of Labor, Office of Research, 200 Folly Brook Boulevard, Wethersfield, CT 06109; or call: (860) Current subscribers who do not wish to continue receiving the publication or who have a change of address are asked to fill out the information on the back cover and return it to the above address. Contributing DOL Staff: Salvatore DiPillo, Lincoln S. Dyer, Arthur Famiglietti and Joseph Slepski. Managing Editor: Charles Joo. Contributing DECD Staff: Sandy Bergin, Kolie Chang, William Hesse and Mark Prisloe. We would also like to thank our associates at the Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis, University of Connecticut, for their contributions to the Digest. Connecticut Department of Labor James P. Butler, Commissioner William R. Bellotti, Deputy Commissioner John E. Saunders, Deputy Commissioner Jean E. Zurbrigen, Deputy Commissioner Roger F. Therrien, Director Office of Research 200 Folly Brook Boulevard Wethersfield, CT Phone: (860) Fax: (860) salvatore.dipillo@po.state.ct.us Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development Peter N. Ellef, Commissioner Richard Cianci, Deputy Commissioner Research Division DECD 865 Brook Street Rocky Hill, CT RESEARCH Phone: (860) Fax: (860) william.hesse@po.state.ct.us

3 Highlighting Connecticut s Growing Plastics Industry Connecticut s growing plastics industry will be highlighted at the first Plastics Expo to be held on April 2, 1997 at the Aquaturf Club, Southington, CT. Over 60 exhibitors will be present to display plastic parts and products manufactured in Connecticut. Last year, the Connecticut plastics industry held its first Plastics Symposium at the Legislative Office Building in Hartford. Plastic parts produced here were displayed to highlight the importance of this industry to Connecticut s manufacturing and economic future. Since then, a number manufacturing projects, seminars, and pilot training programs have developed, expanding the visibility of this industry. other manufacturing industries in the creation of jobs and economic growth for America s communities. In the past two decades, the industry s producers of raw materials, products, processing machinery and molds have continually PLASTICONN 97 APRIL 2, 1997 AQUATURF CLUB, SOUTHINGTON, CT 1:00PM - 4:30PM VIEW THE LATEST TECHNOLOGIES, NETWORK, ATTEND SEMINARS, ENJOY SPECIAL EVENTS added new jobs to the economy even as overall manufacturing employment declined. In Connecticut, this industry has a projected annual growth rate well above the overall average for industries in Connecticut. There are 339 plastics facilities in the state, with total annual shipments greater than $3 billion, making Connecticut one of the strongest states for plastics manufacturing. The plastics industry in Connecticut provides more than 19,000 jobs, and generates more than $600 million in annual wages. This industry, including plastic product manufacturers, machinery companies and moldmakers, wholesale distributors, and captive plastic processors (integrated with manufacturing in other industries) - will be a key provider of new employment opportunities for Connecticut workers now and into the 21st century. Nationally, the plastics industry is a significant contributor to the nation s economy, outpacing most For more information contact: John Tirinzonie, (860) Housing permits decrease in 1996 T he Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development announced that Connecticut communities authorized 7,714 new housing units during 1996, a 7.1% decrease compared to 1995 when 8,307 were authorized. The Department further indicated that the 589 units permitted in December 1996 represent a decrease of 8.4% from the 643 units permitted in December 1995, and that they are down 13.8% from November 1996 when 683 were authorized. Totals for 1996 indicate that Hartford County issued the most building permits with 1,734, followed by Fairfield County with 1,667, and New Haven County with 1,573. Stamford authorized 302 new units during 1996, followed by Southington with 180, Milford with 174, Shelton with 173, and Glastonbury with 170. Reports from municipal officials throughout the state indicate that Fairfield County showed the greatest percentage increase in December compared to the same month a year ago: 52.9%. Middlesex County reported the greatest percentage decline: 47.5% for the same period. HOUSING UPDATE Fairfield County documented the largest number of new, authorized units in December with 182. New Haven County followed with 155 units and Hartford County had 95 units. Milford led all Connecticut communities with 35 units, followed by Bridgeport with 34 and Norwalk with 27. For more information on housing permits, see tables on pages THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 3

4 4 High school graduates profiled Continued from page 2 Education and Labor force Activities Differ by District and Race The State Department of Education (SDE) created Education Reference Groups (ERGS) to group school districts with similar characteristics. Groupings were updated in 1996 based upon 1990 census data and 1994 SDE data related to socioeconomic status, three statistics related to student need and district enrollment. ERGS range from Group A which includes suburbs with predominantly wealthy, well-educated professional residents to Group I, which includes the state s five most impoverished cities. (Detail on ERGs available from Research Bulletin 1, , available from State Department of Education at (860) ). As shown in Table 5 below, after-graduation activities differ by ERG. Graduates from wealthy suburban ERGS are more likely to continue their education than urban area graduates, while graduates from the urban ERGS are more likely to enter the labor force directly upon graduation than their suburban peers. TABLE 5 Percent Percent in Number of Pursuing Workforce Percent of ERG Graduates Education Activities Other A 1, B 4, C 2, D 3, E F 3, G 1, H 3, I 3, VT 1, Total 26, Racial/Ethnic Group Am Indian Asian Am Black 2, White 20, Hispanic 1, Total 26, THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST TABLE 4: DETAILED ACTIVITIES OF 1996 GRADUATES Public Voc-Tech Activity School School Total Percent POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION Public Institutions of Higher Education: Four-Year Programs: Connecticut 4, , Out-of-State 2, , Two-Year Programs Connecticut 3, , Out-of-State Private Institutions of Higher Education: Four-Year Programs Connecticut 1, , Out-of-State 6, , Two-Year Programs Connecticut Out-of-State Higher Education 18, , Vocational Education Other Education TOTAL POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION 19, , CAREER-RELATED ACTIVITIES Military Service Employed 3, , Unemployed TOTAL CAREER-RELATED ACTIVITIES 4,175 1,105 5, MISCELLANEOUS Other Deceased, Incapacitated, or Unknown TOTAL MISCELLANEOUS 1, , GRAND TOTAL 24,743 1,576 26, After-graduation activities also differ by race. Asian-American and white graduates are more likely to continue their education than black or Hispanic graduates, who are more likely to be in workforce activities. High School Dropouts Many students, however, do not stay in school until graduating. The State Department of Education began collecting data on high school dropouts from all school districts in the state in 1991, when the 1995 graduates were in ninth grade. For the class of 1995, 17.4% of the ninth graders dropped out before graduation. For the class of 1996, this rate dropped to 16.4%. This, however, represented over 3,000 students leaving high school before graduation. Some of these dropouts later receive their GEDs or adult diplomas. Data in this article are reported by school districts to the State Department of Education on the ED540, Graduating Class Report (based on October 15 activities of June graduates) and ED525, Student Mobility report, (based upon October 1 through September 30 information). Projections of graduates were made by the State Department of Education. This report was prepared by Pam Casiano and Judy Thompson of the Connecticut State Department of Education, Division of Teaching and Learning, Bureau of Research and Teacher Assessment. Questions or comments should be referred to Pam Casiano at (860)

5 105 LEADING AND COINCIDENT INDICATORS LEADING INDEX COINCIDENT INDEX Peak 02/ Peak 03/80 Trough 06/ Peak 12/69 Peak 05/74 Trough 01/ Trough 10/71 Trough 09/ The distance from peak to trough, indicated by the shaded areas, measures the duration of an employment cycle recession. The vertical scale in both charts is an index with 1987=100. Leading index climbs to new peak onnecticut s leading employ- C ment index climbed to a new peak with the release of the (preliminary) November data. The new peak, however, is not much higher than the levels reached in June and September of this year, and is only 2.7 percent above its level a year ago. Connecticut s coincident employment index fell slightly for the first time on a month-to-month basis since December The coincident index, nonetheless, remains 7.1 percent higher than its level 12 months ago. The coincident index, a gauge of current employment activity, caught its breath last month from its recent strong upward momentum. This recent momentum reflects in large part the lower insured unemployment rate, down 17.2 percent (or 0.5 percentage point) over the last 12 months. But it also reflects higher total employment, up 3.3 percent, and higher nonfarm employment, up 1.3 percent. With the release of the November data, however, both nonfarm employment and total employment were off a bit from October while the unemployment rate rose a tenth of a percentage point. The only positive movement in the components of the coincident index between October and November was the tenth of a percentage point decrease in the insured unemployment rate. The leading index, a barometer of future employment activity, continues to bounce around, although it is actually at its peak in the current expansion. The leading index has not moved in the same direction, either up or down, for more than two consecutive months since December Nevertheless, over the past 12 months, the initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 25.6 percent, the short-duration (less than 15 weeks) unemployment rate fell by 11.9 percent (or 0.2 percentage point), Hartford help-wanted advertising rose by 12.5 percent, and total housing permits increased by 17.9 percent. In summary, the coincident employment index rose from 83.2 in November 1995 to 89.1 in November Three of the four index components point in a positive direction on a year-overyear basis with higher nonfarm employment, higher total employment, and a lower insured unemployment rate. The other component, the total unemployment rate, remained unchanged on a year-over-year basis. The leading employment index rose from 87.5 in November 1995 to 89.9 in November Four of the five index components sent positive signals on a year-overyear basis with lower initial claims for unemployment insurance, a lower short-duration (less than 15 weeks) unemployment rate, higher Hartford help-wanted advertising, and higher total housing permits. The final component, the average work week of manufacturing production workers, remained unchanged on a year-over-year basis. Source: Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis, University of Connecticut. Developed by Pami Dua [(203) , Stamford Campus (on leave)] and Stephen M. Miller [(860) , Storrs Campus]. Tara Blois [(860) , Storrs Campus] provided research support. THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 5

6 ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF EMPLOYMENT Seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment increased by 24,100 over the year. Services added 12,400 jobs, while the Manufacturing and Finance, Insurance & Real estate sectors lost 1,600 and 2,600 workers, respectively. EMPLOYMENT BY MAJOR INDUSTRY DIVISION (Seasonally adjusted; 000s) NO. % 1996 TOTAL NONFARM 1, , ,583.7 Private Sector 1, , ,359.5 Construction and Mining Manufacturing Transportation, Public Utilities Wholesale, Retail Trade Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Services Government Source: Connecticut Department of Labor The unemployment rate increased to 5.2 percent in December, but remained well below last year s 5.6 percent. Initial claims, however, rose by 15.4 percent over the year. UNEMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted) NO. % 1996 Unemployment Rate, resident (%) Labor Force, resident (000s) 1, , ,753.5 Employed (000s) 1, , ,664.6 Unemployed (000s) Average Weekly Initial Claims 4,843 4, ,798 Help Wanted Index -- Htfd. (1987=100) Avg. Insured Unemp. Rate (%) Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor; The Conference Board Average weekly hours were unchanged, and output increased by 1.5 percent from last December. MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY (Seasonally adjusted) NO. % 1996 Average Weekly Hours Average Hourly Earnings* $14.22 $13.96 $ $14.10 Average Weekly Earnings* $ $ $ $ Mfg. Output Index (1982=100) Production Worker Hours (000s)* 7,028 7, ,004 Productivity Index (1982=100) Source: Connecticut Department of Labor *Not seasonally adjusted Nominal personal income for first quarter of 1997 is forecasted to grow 5.0 percent over the prior year. INCOME (quarterly) (Seasonally adjusted) 1Q* 1Q CHANGE 4Q* (Annualized; $ Millions) NO. % 1996 UI Covered Wages $59,782 $56,889 $2, $58,830 Personal Income $112,330 $106,945 $5, $111,023 Real Personal Income** NA $68,997 NA NA $70,135 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis: January 1997 release *Forecasted by Connecticut Department of Labor **Adjusted with Consumer Price Index -- All Urban Consumers, U.S. City Average (CPI-U) NA = Not Available Note: Beginning with the November 1996 release, all estimates for 1990:Q1 through 1996:Q3 are no longer consistent with 1969:Q1 to 1989:Q4. The estimates for 1969:Q1 to 1989:Q4 will be revised by BEA in the second half of THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

7 ECONOMIC INDICATORS BUSINESS ACTIVITY Y/Y % YEAR TO DATE % MONTH LEVEL CHG CHG New Housing Permits DEC ,714 8, Electricity Sales (mil kwh) OCT , ,629 22, Retail Sales (Bil. $) OCT Construction Contracts Index (1980=100) NOV New Auto Registrations DEC , , , Air Cargo Tons NOV , , , Sources: Department of Economic and Community Development; U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration; Connecticut Department of Revenue Services; F.W. Dodge; Connecticut Department of Motor Vehicles; Connecticut Department of Transportation, Bureau of Aviation and Ports BUSINESS STARTS AND TERMINATIONS DEC % CHANGE YEAR TO DATE 1996 M/M Y/Y NO. % CHG STARTS Secretary of the State 1, , Department of Labor , TERMINATIONS Secretary of the State , Department of Labor , Sources: Connecticut Secretary of the State -- corporations and other legal entities Connecticut Department of Labor -- unemployment insurance program registrations Retail sales were up 10.5 percent through October from the same period a year ago. Construction contracts, however, fell 23.2 percent from November Business starts registered with the Secretary of the State exceeded terminations for a net gain of 13,067 businesses in STATE TAX COLLECTIONS FISCAL YEAR TOTALS DEC DEC % % (Millions of dollars) CHG CHG TOTAL ALL TAXES* , , Corporate Tax Personal Income Tax , , Real Estate Conv. Tax Sales & Use Tax , Source: Connecticut Department of Revenue Services *Includes all sources of tax revenue; Only selected taxes are displayed. TOURISM AND TRAVEL Y/Y % YEAR TO DATE % MONTH LEVEL CHG CHG Tourism Inquiries DEC , , , Info Center Visitors DEC , , , Major Attraction Visitors DEC , ,786,990 1,928, Hotel-Motel Occupancy DEC Air Passenger Count NOV , ,937,553 4,722, Sources: Connecticut Department of Transportation, Bureau of Aviation and Ports; Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development; Connecticut Lodging & Attractions Association Total tax collections for the fiscal year to date were up 3.4 percent. Only corporate tax collections were down a total of 15.2 percent, perhaps reflecting this year s rate cut from to The rate falls to 9.5 percent by January 1, 1998, and to 7.5 percent by Tourism inquiries, welcome center visitors, and attraction visitors took a jump up in December. Inquiries and visitors were up 12.4 and 1.1 percent, respectively, for the year to date. Air passengers through November exceeded 4.9 million, or 4.6 percent ahead of last year. THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 7

8 ECONOMIC INDICATORS Compensation costs for the Northeast rose 2.6 percent over the year, while the nation s increased by 3.1 percent. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX (quarterly) Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted Private Industry Workers DEC SEP 3-Mo DEC DEC 12-Mo (June 1989=100) % Chg % Chg UNITED STATES TOTAL Wages and Salaries Benefit Costs NORTHEAST TOTAL Wages and Salaries Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics Only Boston s inflation rate of 3.7 percent for November surpassed the U.S. city average of 3.3 percent. New England consumer confidence fell in December and remained below the U.S., but was still 36.7 percent ahead of December a year ago. CONSUMER NEWS DEC NOV DEC % CHG (Not seasonally adjusted) M/M Y/Y CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ( =100) All Urban Consumers U.S. City Average Northeast Region NY-Northern NJ-Long Island Boston-Lawrence-Salem* Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers U.S. City Average CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (1985=100) U.S New England *The Boston CPI can be used as a proxy for New England and is measured every other month. Sources: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; The Conference Board Short-term rates were below December rates of a year ago. Long-term rates were higher, as was the 7.6 percent 30-year mortgage rate. INTEREST RATES DEC NOV DEC (Percent) Prime Federal Funds Month Treasury Bill Month Treasury Bill Year Treasury Bill Year Treasury Bill Year Treasury Bond Year Treasury Bond Year Treasury Bond Year Teasury Bond Conventional Mortgage Sources: Federal Reserve; Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. 8 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

9 COMPARATIVE REGIONAL DATA NONFARM EMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted; 000s) NO. % 1996 Connecticut 1, , ,583.7 Maine Massachusetts 3, , ,036.1 New Hampshire New Jersey 3, , ,655.7 New York 7, , ,956.4 Pennsylvania 5, , ,285.0 Rhode Island Vermont United States 120, , , ,438.0 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics Over the year, Connecticut s employment grew 1.5 percent, which was the second fastest rate in the region. LABOR FORCE (Seasonally adjusted; 000s) NO. % 1996 Connecticut 1, , ,753.5 Maine Massachusetts 3, , ,177.1 New Hampshire New Jersey 4, , ,116.0 New York 8, , ,590.1 Pennsylvania 5, , ,883.7 Rhode Island Vermont United States 135, , , ,831.0 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics Both Connecticut and Maine s labor force increased 2.3 percent, while New Hampshire s actually declined over the past year. UNEMPLOYMENT RATES DEC DEC NOV (Seasonally adjusted) CHANGE 1996 Connecticut Maine Massachusetts New Hampshire New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Rhode Island Vermont United States Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics New Hampshire s unemployment rate was the lowest, while New Jersey experienced the highest rate in December. THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 9

10 ECONOMIC INDICATOR TRENDS NONFARM EMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted) Month Thousands 1,700 1,650 1,600 1,550 1,500 1,450 1,400 Jan 1, , ,565.2 Feb 1, , ,576.1 Mar 1, , ,576.8 Apr 1, , ,575.0 May 1, , ,576.5 Jun 1, , ,576.5 Jul 1, , ,581.3 Aug 1, , ,583.6 Sep 1, , ,586.1 Oct 1, , ,584.7 Nov 1, , ,583.7 Dec 1, , ,586.8 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Seasonally adjusted) Month Percent Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec LABOR FORCE (Seasonally adjusted) Month Thousands 1,900 1,850 1,800 1,750 1,700 1,650 1,600 1,550 Jan 1, , ,746.1 Feb 1, , ,747.3 Mar 1, , ,744.2 Apr 1, , ,748.9 May 1, , ,742.8 Jun 1, , ,739.4 Jul 1, , ,731.8 Aug 1, , ,733.6 Sep 1, , ,746.0 Oct 1, , ,754.1 Nov 1, , ,753.5 Dec 1, , ,744.0 AVERAGE WEEKLY INITIAL CLAIMS (Seasonally adjusted) Month ,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Jan 5,346 4,362 4,510 Feb 4,846 4,884 4,551 Mar 5,213 4,788 4,080 Apr 5,375 4,714 4,204 May 5,185 4,955 4,169 Jun 5,130 5,642 4,111 Jul 4,778 5,098 4,404 Aug 4,678 4,951 4,364 Sep 4,827 4,966 4,134 Oct 4,769 4,873 4,247 Nov 4,375 5,324 3,798 Dec 4,853 4,197 4, THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

11 ECONOMIC INDICATOR TRENDS REAL AVG MANUFACTURING HOURLY EARNINGS (Not seasonally adjusted) Month Dollars Jan $9.32 $9.28 $9.20 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec AVG MANUFACTURING WEEKLY HOURS (Seasonally adjusted) Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec MANUFACTURING OUTPUT INDEX (Seasonally adjusted) Month = Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec DOL NEWLY REGISTERED EMPLOYERS (12-month moving average) Month ,100 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 11

12 ECONOMIC INDICATOR TRENDS WHOLESALE TRADE EMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted) Month Thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec RETAIL TRADE EMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted) Month Thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec TOTAL SERVICES EMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted) Month Thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec HEALTH SERVICES EMPLOYMENT (Not seasonally adjusted) Month Thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

13 ECONOMIC INDICATOR TRENDS HARTFORD HELP WANTED INDEX (Seasonally adjusted) Month = Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NEW HOUSING PERMITS (Not seasonally adjusted) Month ,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr 839 1, May Jun 1, Jul 1, Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NEW AUTO REGISTRATIONS PROCESSED (Not seasonally adjusted) Month ,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Jan 10,947 17,777 16,714 Feb 13,463 18,580 9,724 Mar 8,910 13,422 13,132 Apr 24,757 10,777 14,930 May 17,829 15,516 14,492 Jun 20,839 19,419 16,812 Jul 21,129 16,107 18,412 Aug 21,812 12,552 20,409 Sep 18,622 13,413 14,420 Oct 16,848 20,463 13,059 Nov 17,319 17,740 12,676 Dec 19,249 14,196 12,684 U.S. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (Not seasonally adjusted) Month Over-the-year % changes Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 13

14 NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES CONNECTICUT (Not seasonally adjusted) NO. % 1996 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ,609,200 * 1,585,000 * 24, ,604,500 * GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,600 * 331,500 * ,000 * CONSTRUCTION & MINING ,700 52,000 1, ,800 MANUFACTURING ,900 * 279,500 * -1, ,200 * Durable , ,600-1, ,300 Lumber & Furniture ,700 4, ,700 Stone, Clay & Glass ,700 2, ,700 Primary Metals ,300 9, ,300 Fabricated Metals ,400 34, ,500 Machinery & Computer Equipment ,500 35, ,300 Electronic & Electrical Equipment ,500 28, ,100 Transportation Equipment ,500 52,400-1, ,500 Instruments ,600 22, ,500 Miscellaneous Manufacturing ,800 6, ,700 Nondurable ,900 * 82,900 * ,900 * Food ,300 9, ,200 Textiles ,300 2, ,300 Apparel ,000 5, ,100 Paper ,200 8, ,100 Printing & Publishing ,700 25, ,600 Chemicals ,600 * 20,000 * ,600 * Rubber & Plastics ,800 10, ,800 Other Nondurable Manufacturing ,300 2, ,200 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,277,600 * 1,253,500 * 24, ,271,500 * TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES ,500 72, ,400 Transportation ,100 42, ,900 Motor Freight & Warehousing ,300 17, ,200 Other Transportation ,800 25,700 1, ,700 Communications ,900 16,900 1, ,000 Utilities ,500 12, ,500 TRADE ,600 * 351,300 * 8, ,200 * Wholesale ,900 * 79,400 * 1, ,500 * Retail , ,900 6, ,700 General Merchandise ,900 30,800 2, ,200 Food Stores ,300 49,300 2, ,800 Auto Dealers & Gas Stations ,800 26, ,900 Restaurants ,700 74,500 2, ,900 Other Retail Trade ,100 90, ,900 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE , ,400-2, ,800 Finance ,100 46, ,200 Banking ,700 26, ,000 Insurance ,800 71,400-3, ,900 Insurance Carriers ,000 60,600-3, ,100 Real Estate ,900 14, ,800 SERVICES , ,100 * 12, ,000 Hotels & Lodging Places ,600 10, ,700 Personal Services ,100 17, ,800 Business Services ,200 89,600 5, ,000 Health Services , ,600 2, ,200 Legal & Professional Services ,500 46, ,100 Educational Services ,600 41, ,000 Other Services , ,000 * 2, ,100 GOVERNMENT , ,100 5, ,100 Federal ,100 24, ,400 **State, Local & Other Government , ,100 6, ,700 For further information contact Lincoln Dyer at (860) Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. **Includes Indian tribal government employment. 14 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

15 BRIDGEPORT LMA NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES (Not seasonally adjusted) NO. % 1996 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT , , ,000 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,600 46, ,600 CONSTRUCTION & MINING ,000 5, ,100 MANUFACTURING ,600 40, ,500 Durable Goods ,700 33, ,600 Fabricated Metals ,400 4, ,400 Industrial Machinery ,200 6, ,200 Electronic Equipment ,000 5, ,900 Transportation Equipment ,700 10, ,700 Nondurable Goods ,900 7, ,900 Printing & Publishing ,400 2, ,400 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES , , ,400 TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES ,400 7, ,400 TRADE ,800 41, ,600 Wholesale ,400 9, ,400 Retail ,400 31, ,200 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE ,700 9, ,700 SERVICES ,100 56, ,100 Business Services ,100 11, ,100 Health Services ,500 19, ,600 GOVERNMENT ,600 20, ,600 Federal ,900 2, ,900 State & Local ,700 18, ,700 For further information on the Bridgeport Labor Market Area contact Arthur Famiglietti at (860) DANBURY LMA (Not seasonally adjusted) NO. % 1996 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ,200 84,200-1, ,100 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,300 22, ,300 CONSTRUCTION & MINING ,000 2, ,100 MANUFACTURING ,300 19, ,200 Durable Goods ,000 10, ,900 Machinery & Electric Equipment ,200 5, ,200 Instruments ,600 2, ,600 Nondurable Goods ,300 9, ,300 Printing & Publishing ,800 2, ,700 Chemicals ,600 3, ,500 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,900 61,900-1, ,800 TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES ,100 3, ,100 TRADE ,400 22, ,200 Wholesale ,100 4, ,100 Retail ,300 18, ,100 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE ,500 3, ,600 SERVICES ,100 23, ,100 GOVERNMENT ,800 9, ,800 Federal State & Local ,000 8, ,000 For further information on the Danbury Labor Market Area contact Arthur Famiglietti at (860) Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 15

16 NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES DANIELSON LMA (Not seasonally adjusted) NO. % 1996 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ,700 20, ,700 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,000 6, ,000 CONSTRUCTION & MINING , ,100 MANUFACTURING ,900 5, ,900 Durable Goods ,700 2, ,700 Nondurable Goods ,200 3, ,200 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,700 13, ,700 TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES TRADE ,600 5, ,500 Wholesale Retail ,900 4, ,800 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE SERVICES ,400 4, ,400 GOVERNMENT ,800 3, ,900 Federal State & Local ,700 3, ,800 For further information on the Danielson Labor Market Area contact Joseph Slepski at (860) HARTFORD LMA (Not seasonally adjusted) NO. % 1996 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT , , ,200 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES , ,000 1, ,000 CONSTRUCTION & MINING ,200 20, ,100 MANUFACTURING ,600 90,300 2, ,900 Durable Goods ,900 70,300 2, ,200 Primary & Fabricated Metals ,200 16, ,100 Industrial Machinery ,100 14, ,000 Electronic Equipment ,400 6, ,100 Transportation Equipment ,100 24,300 1, ,900 Nondurable Goods ,700 20, ,700 Printing & Publishing ,900 8, ,900 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES , ,400-1, ,200 TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES ,600 25, ,700 Transportation ,500 15, ,500 Communications & Utilities ,100 9, ,200 TRADE , ,600-1, ,000 Wholesale ,500 28, ,500 Retail ,500 97,700-2, ,500 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE ,200 72,800-3, ,700 Deposit & Nondeposit Institutions ,900 11, ,900 Insurance Carriers ,300 49,000-3, ,900 SERVICES , ,800 1, ,700 Health Services ,400 57, ,300 GOVERNMENT ,400 98,000 2, ,100 Federal ,600 8, ,600 State & Local ,800 89,300 2, ,500 For further information on the Hartford Labor Market Area contact Arthur Famiglietti at (860) Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. 16 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

17 LOWER RIVER LMA NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES (Not seasonally adjusted) NO. % 1996 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ,000 9, ,100 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,100 3, ,100 CONSTRUCTION & MINING MANUFACTURING ,800 2, ,700 Durable Goods ,100 2, ,000 Electronic Equipment Other Durable Goods ,300 1, ,300 Nondurable Goods Rubber & Plastics Other Nondurable Goods SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,900 6, ,000 TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES TRADE ,000 2, ,000 Wholesale Retail ,700 1, ,700 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE SERVICES ,500 2, ,500 GOVERNMENT Federal State & Local For further information on the Lower River Labor Market Area contact Joseph Slepski at (860) NEW HAVEN LMA (Not seasonally adjusted) NO. % 1996 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ,600 * 244,800 * 1, ,800 * GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,900 48, ,100 CONSTRUCTION & MINING ,800 8, ,200 MANUFACTURING ,100 40, ,900 Durable Goods ,700 26, ,600 Primary & Fabricated Metals ,100 7, ,200 Electronic Equipment ,000 5, ,000 Nondurable Goods ,400 14, ,300 Paper, Printing & Publishing ,300 5, ,300 Chemicals & Allied ,000 5, ,000 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,700 * 196,200 * 1, ,700 * TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES ,400 16, ,400 Communications & Utilities ,100 9, ,100 TRADE ,500 * 51,500 * 1, ,200 * Wholesale ,700 * 11,800 * ,500 * Retail ,800 39,700 1, ,700 Eating & Drinking Places ,200 11, ,200 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE ,200 13, ,200 Finance ,000 4, ,000 Insurance ,000 7, ,000 SERVICES ,500 84, ,300 Business Services ,600 11, ,300 Health Services ,400 28, ,400 GOVERNMENT ,100 30,100 1, ,600 Federal ,900 5, ,800 State & Local ,200 25,000 1, ,800 For further information on the New Haven Labor Market Area contact Charles Joo at (860) Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 17

18 NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES NEW LONDON LMA (Not seasonally adjusted) NO. % 1996 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT , ,700 2, ,500 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,600 31,600-3, ,000 CONSTRUCTION & MINING ,200 4, ,500 MANUFACTURING ,400 27,300-2, ,500 Durable Goods ,200 18,100-2, ,300 Primary & Fabricated Metals ,200 2, ,300 Other Durable Goods ,000 15,800-2, ,000 Nondurable Goods ,200 9, ,200 Paper & Allied ,000 1, ,000 Other Nondurable Goods ,700 6, ,700 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES , ,100 5, ,500 TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES ,200 6, ,200 TRADE ,900 28, ,700 Wholesale ,000 2, ,000 Retail ,900 25, ,700 Eating & Drinking Places ,700 7, ,800 Other Retail ,200 18, ,900 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE ,600 3, ,600 SERVICES ,100 32, ,900 Personal & Business Services ,500 6, ,400 Health Services ,300 10, ,300 GOVERNMENT ,800 30,900 3, ,100 Federal ,000 3, ,200 State & Local ,800 27,000 4, ,900 **Local ,500 21,900 5, ,600 For further information on the New London Labor Market Area contact Lincoln Dyer at (860) STAMFORD LMA (Not seasonally adjusted) NO. % 1996 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ,400 * 195,500 * 3, ,700 * GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,500 * 32,400 * ,700 * CONSTRUCTION & MINING ,900 5, ,100 MANUFACTURING ,600 * 27,300 * ,600 * Durable Goods ,400 14, ,300 Industrial Machinery ,900 4, ,000 Electronic Equipment ,000 2, ,000 Nondurable Goods ,200 12, ,300 Paper, Printing & Publishing ,200 5, ,300 Chemicals & Allied ,400 * 3,400 * ,400 * Other Nondurable ,600 4, ,600 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES , ,100 4, ,000 TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES ,900 8, ,900 Communications & Utilities ,000 2, ,000 TRADE ,100 44,400-1, ,100 Wholesale ,700 11, ,700 Retail ,400 33, ,400 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE ,700 22,200 1, ,300 SERVICES ,900 69,900 5, ,300 Business Services ,900 21,800 3, ,400 Engineering & Mgmnt. Services ,200 8, ,400 Other Services ,800 39,200 1, ,500 GOVERNMENT ,300 17, ,400 Federal ,100 2, ,900 State & Local ,200 15, ,500 For further information on the Stamford Labor Market Area contact Joseph Slepski at (860) Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. **Includes Indian tribal government employment. 18 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

19 TORRINGTON LMA NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES (Not seasonally adjusted) NO. % 1996 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ,400 27, ,600 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,500 7, ,600 CONSTRUCTION & MINING ,900 1, ,000 MANUFACTURING ,600 5, ,600 Durable Goods ,800 4, ,800 Primary & Fabricated Metals Industrial Machinery ,000 1, ,000 Electronic Equipment Other Durable Goods ,000 2, ,000 Nondurable Goods ,800 1, ,800 Rubber & Plastics Other Nondurable Goods ,000 1, ,000 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,900 20, ,000 TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES TRADE ,800 6, ,900 Wholesale Retail ,900 5, ,000 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE SERVICES ,100 9, ,000 GOVERNMENT ,300 3, ,400 Federal State & Local ,100 3, ,200 For further information on the Torrington Labor Market Area contact Joseph Slepski at (860) WATERBURY LMA (Not seasonally adjusted) NO. % 1996 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ,900 84,600 2, ,100 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,500 21, ,600 CONSTRUCTION & MINING ,000 2, ,100 MANUFACTURING ,500 18, ,500 Durable Goods ,500 14, ,500 Primary Metals Fabricated Metals ,200 6, ,200 Machinery & Electric Equipment ,900 4, ,900 Nondurable Goods ,000 4, ,000 Paper, Printing & Publishing ,200 1, ,300 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,400 63,600 1, ,500 TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES ,700 3, ,700 TRADE ,400 16, ,000 Wholesale ,000 3, ,900 Retail ,400 13, ,100 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE ,200 4, ,100 SERVICES ,700 27,100 1, ,400 Personal & Business ,700 6,300 1, ,800 Health Services ,300 10, ,500 GOVERNMENT ,400 12, ,300 Federal State & Local ,500 11, ,400 For further information on the Waterbury Labor Market Area contact Joseph Slepski at (860) Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 19

20 LABOR FORCE ESTIMATES EMPLOYMENT (Not seasonally adjusted) STATUS NO. % 1996 CONNECTICUT Civilian Labor Force 1,723,900 1,685,700 38, ,741,800 Employed 1,640,900 1,598,400 42, ,661,200 Unemployed 83,000 87,200-4, ,500 Unemployment Rate BRIDGEPORT LMA Civilian Labor Force 220, ,900 4, ,900 Employed 207, ,100 4, ,000 Unemployed 12,600 12, ,800 Unemployment Rate DANBURY LMA Civilian Labor Force 106, , ,500 Employed 103, , ,100 Unemployed 3,400 3, ,400 Unemployment Rate DANIELSON LMA Civilian Labor Force 34,400 32,900 1, ,500 Employed 32,200 31,000 1, ,400 Unemployed 2,200 2, ,100 Unemployment Rate HARTFORD LMA Civilian Labor Force 590, ,800 6, ,100 Employed 560, ,800 9, ,100 Unemployed 29,900 33,000-3, ,900 Unemployment Rate LOWER RIVER LMA Civilian Labor Force 11,900 11, ,100 Employed 11,500 11, ,600 Unemployed Unemployment Rate NEW HAVEN LMA Civilian Labor Force 271, ,900 6, ,900 Employed 258, ,800 7, ,900 Unemployed 13,100 14,100-1, ,100 Unemployment Rate NEW LONDON LMA Civilian Labor Force 154, ,100 6, ,900 Employed 145, ,900 6, ,900 Unemployed 8,100 7, ,900 Unemployment Rate STAMFORD LMA Civilian Labor Force 192, ,100 7, ,100 Employed 186, ,600 8, ,200 Unemployed 5,900 6, ,900 Unemployment Rate TORRINGTON LMA Civilian Labor Force 38,100 37, ,400 Employed 36,600 36, ,000 Unemployed 1,500 1, ,400 Unemployment Rate WATERBURY LMA Civilian Labor Force 119, ,100 4, ,300 Employed 113, ,400 5, ,200 Unemployed 6,300 6, ,100 Unemployment Rate UNITED STATES Civilian Labor Force 134,583, ,008,000 2,575, ,973,000 Employed 127,903, ,136,000 2,767, ,157,000 Unemployed 6,680,000 6,872, , ,816,000 Unemployment Rate Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST