State of the U.S. Online Retail Economy in Q4 2011

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1 State of the U.S. Online Retail Economy in Q February 2012 Gian Fulgoni, Chairman, comscore, Inc. Andrew Lipsman, VP Industry Analysis, comscore, Inc. Note: A copy of this presentation will be sent to all attendees within 24 hours of today s webinar

2 Data sourced from comscore s global panel of 2 million Internet users via behavioral tracking and custom surveys 2 million person panel 360 View of Consumer Behavior Analysis Parameters Online & Offline Buying Web Visiting & Search Behavior Online Advertising Exposure E-commerce data includes all worldwide buying on U.S. sites Unless explicitly stated otherwise, the term e-commerce refers to online retail spending, as measured by comscore, which excludes travel, autos and auctions Behavioral activity through December 2011 measured via the fixed Internet Transactions Media & Video Consumption PANEL Mobile Internet Usage & Behavior Advertising Effectiveness Demographics, Lifestyles & Attitudes Survey conducted week of January 30, 2012 (n=1083) Consumer Measurements: Site Visitation Online Buying Attitudes and Sentiment Demographic Segments Mobile e-commerce Retailer Views: Large vs. Small Retailers Impact of Social Media 2

3 % Growth vs. YA Validation of comscore Sales Data: Comparison of comscore data to U.S. Department of Commerce Quarterly U.S. e-commerce Growth* vs. YA Source: comscore & U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) 50% Dept. of Commerce (DOC) comscore Estimate of DOC 40% 30% Correlation: % 10% 0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3-10% 3 *Note: To be consistent with DOC, comscore estimate excludes travel and event tickets but includes auction fees and autos.

4 State of the Economy A Review of Key Macroeconomic Trends 4

5 Total e-commerce spending continues to recover strongly from the recession, posting a +12% gain Y/Y in Retail e-commerce up 14% U.S. e-commerce Dollar Sales Growth ($ Billions) Source: comscore e-commerce Measurement Travel Retail $72 $30 +29% $93 $40 +33% +26% $117 $143 $51 +28% +22% $61 $42 $53 $67 $82 +26% +26% +20% +24% +19% $171 $69 $ % +24% +17% $200 $77 +12% +7% $214-2% $209 $84 +9% $80-5% +9% $228 $85 +6% 0% $123 $130 $130 $ % +6% +10% +12% $256 $94 $ % +14%

6 Channel shift accelerating: e-commerce growth shows significant gains, nearly triple the growth rate of total retail in Q Quarterly e-commerce Sales Growth vs. YA Source: comscore e-commerce Measurement 23% 23% 17% 19% 11% 13% 6% -3% 0% -1% -2% 3% 10% 9% 9% 11% 12% 14% 13% 14% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Quarterly Retail & Food Services Sales Growth* vs. YA Source: U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) When excluding autos, gas and food/beverage, Q retail growth is up only +3% versus % 4% 3% 5% 4% 2% 1% 2% 6% 7% 5% 8% 7% 7% 7% 5% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q % -10% -9% 6-7% *Note: The U.S. Department of Commerce calculation includes total retail and food service sales, which also includes motor vehicles and parts dealers.

7 e-commerce Share e-commerce share of all consumer sales continues to grow, with almost one in every ten discretionary dollars spent online e-commerce Share of Corresponding Consumer Spending* Source: comscore for e-commerce & U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) for Retail 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.4% 7.3% 7.6% 7.7% 7.7% 8.1% 8.0% 8.6% 8.9% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 5.1% 4.3% 4.6% 3.7% 4.0% 4.3% 4.5% 5.9% 5.3% 6.4% 6.7% 5.3% 5.0% 6.3% 5.9% 6.5% 6.6% 6.8% 6.9% e-commerce share peaks in colder seasons (Q4 & Q1) 7.1% 7.1% 7.7% 7.6% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% *Note: e-commerce share is shown as a percent of DOC s Total Retail Sales excluding Food Service & Drinking, Food & Bev. Stores, Motor Vehicles & Parts, Gasoline Stations and Health & Personal Care Stores. 7

8 Billions ($) Overall e-commerce dollar sales posted double-digit gains in every quarter in 2011, reaching almost $50 billion in Q4 e-commerce Dollar Sales ($ Billions) Source: comscore e-commerce Measurement % Chg vs.ya +11% +13% +6% -3% 0% -1% -2% +3% +10% +9% +9% +11% +12% +14% +13% +14% $49.7 $43.4 $38.1 $39.0 $38.0 $37.5 $36.3 $33.9 $32.9 $32.1 $31.2 $30.6 $30.3 $31.0 $30.2 $29.6 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 8

9 Consumers earning $100k+ showed double-digit e-commerce growth rates for the third consecutive quarter, while the middle class also grew at the best rate in more than a year e-commerce Sales by Income Segment ($ Billions) Growth vs. YA Source: comscore e-commerce Measurement Under $50K (23% of Total) $50K - $99K (43% of Total) $100K or more (34% of Total) +6% +2% +8% +3% +9% +9% +7% +12% +15% +16% $18.3 $20.0 $ % +39% +28% +31% +22% $12.2 $10.0 $10.3 $9.4 $8.9 $15.3 $14.6 $15.4 $15.1 $12.4 $13.5 $12.1 Q4 '10 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q4 '10 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q4 '10 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 9

10 Overall consumer sentiment has improved, with 54% stating the economy is in poor condition (2nd lowest percentage since 2009) Percent of Consumers Who View The Economy as Poor Q. How would you rate economic conditions today? Source: comscore Surveys 77% 68% 66% 61% 61% 59% 62% 61% 52% 59% 60% 62% 60% 54% Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 10

11 Consumer concern over unemployment dropped to 31% in January Percent of Respondents Citing Their One Most Important Issue Q. Based on your current situation, which one of the following economic conditions most concerns you? Source: comscore Surveys 54% 50% Unemployment / Job Security 46% 40% 42% 42% 44% 45% 42% 37% 38% 43% Rising Prices Financial Markets 28% 32% 32% 29% 33% 30% 29% 36% 27% 37% 37% 31% Real Estate / Home Values 15% 13% 13% 8% 8% 8% 7% 9% 9% 10% 13% 8% 10% 9% 11% 7% 7% 7% 12% 12% 8% 9% 10% 10% Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 11

12 Retailer and Product Category Overview 12

13 Most categories show strong growth in Q versus Q Q e-commerce Sales Growth vs. YA by Retail Category Source: comscore e-commerce Measurement Product Category Digital Content and Subscriptions Relative Chg Growth Rate Q vs. Q Q Growth vs. YA Very Strong Jewelry & Watches Consumer Electronics (x PC Peripherals) Sport & Fitness Computers/Peripherals/PDAs Apparel & Accessories Event Tickets Flowers, Greetings & Misc. Gifts Books & Magazines Video Games, Consoles & Accessories Furniture, Appliances & Equipment Consumer Packaged Goods Office Supplies Home & Garden Very Strong Very Strong Very Strong Very Strong Very Strong Strong Strong Strong Strong Strong Strong Moderate Moderate Q4 growth rates of 15% or higher Q4 growth rates of 10-14% Q4 growth rates of 5% to 9% 13

14 E-Commerce has shown growth in essentially every metric versus a year ago, including total buyers, dollars per buyer and average order value Key e-commerce Buyer and Transaction Measures Q vs. YA Source: comscore e-commerce Measurement Metric Q Q % change Dollar Sales ($ Billions) $43 $50 +14% Dollars per buyer $261 $272 +4% Buyers (Millions) % Average Order Value $92 $97 +6% Transactions (Millions) % Transactions per Buyer % Buyer Penetration (Total Internet) 69% 74% +7% 14

15 Compared to 2010, smaller retailers gained share of quarterly e- Commerce sales versus the top-25 retailers Top-25 Retailers vs. All Other Retailers: Share of Quarterly U.S. e-commerce Sales Source: comscore e-commerce Measurement 32.3% 30.1% 31.2% 32.3% 33.6% 32.1% 32.4% 67.7% 69.9% 68.8% 67.7% 66.4% 67.9% 67.6% All Other Retailers Top 25 Retailers Q Q Q Q Q Q Q

16 Over half of all online transactions included free shipping in Q4 2011, the highest level ever seen Percentage of e-commerce Transactions with Free Shipping Source: comscore e-commerce Measurement 58% 56% 61% 60% 59% 51% 53% 57% 60% 48% 42% 44% 39% 40% 41% 49% 47% 43% 40% 52% Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 % Transactions with Free Shipping % Transactions with Paid Shipping 54% of consumers stated in a recent survey* that if they reached the end of an e-commerce transaction and free shipping was not offered, they would cancel their purchase 16 *comscore survey Jan 2012

17 Amazon sites continue to break their own records, reaching 111 Million UVs in Q4, a 31% increase from 2010 Avg. Monthly UVs (MM) on Select Retail Sites in Q Source: comscore Media Metrix U.S. Data Amazon Sites Wal-Mart Apple.com Target Corporation Best Buy Sites Netflix.com Hewlett Packard % vs. Q % vs. Q Sears.com JCPenney Sites Macy's Inc

18 The overall popularity of flash-sale sites continues to grow, with several sites showing triple-digit growth versus a year ago U.S. Unique Visitors (000) to Leading U.S. Flash Sales Sites Source: comscore Media Metrix, U.S., December 2011 Y/Y Growth Woot.com 2, % HauteLook.com Zulily.com 1,701 1, % +153% Gilt Groupe MyHabit.com 1,186 1, % N/A Ideeli.com % OneKingsLane.com RueLaLa.com Totsy.com EBay Fashion Vault % +36% +8,306% N/A Kids clothing site Totsy.com has exploded on the Flash Sale scene, reaching 520,000 UVs in Dec-2011, vs. just 6,000 in Dec

19 Online Retail Advertising in

20 Internet advertising spending surged in 2011, reaching $7.9 Billion in Q3, up 22% vs YA -- a growth rate about 6X faster than all media spending $8 Quarterly Revenue Trend ($ Billions) Q $7.9 B +22% vs YA $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $- $ Source: IAB Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Q Q IAB & PricewaterhouseCoopers

21 Netflix and ebay were the top retail advertisers in 2011, serving 37 billion and 28 billion total impressions, respectively Total Advertising Impressions (Billions) Served Across the Internet in 2011 Top Retailers Source: comscore Ad Metrix Netflix 37.0 ebay 28.0 QuiBids JustFabulous Amazon.com 8.2 Sears Apple Inc. Wal-Mart ShoeDazzle.com Target RadioShack

22 Ad impressions delivered on Amazon.com (not including Amazon s own ads) are up 81% versus a year ago Impressions Delivered (in Millions) & Selected Leading Creatives on Amazon & Walmart Source: comscore Ad Metrix, U.S., Jul-2010 to Dec ,000 2,500 Amazon.com Walmart.com +81% vs. Dec % vs. Nov 11 Amazon.com 2,000 1,500 1,000 Walmart.com

23 Despite click rates of only 0.1%, comscore research has shown that display ads can lift retailer sales both online and offline Dollar Sales Lift Among Households Exposed to Online Advertising Conclusions % Lift: 17% $9,905 $11,550 Exposure to display ads doesn t just impact online sales it lifts in-store sales as well % Lift: 27% $994 $1,263 Online Unexposed Offline Exposed The absolute dollar lift in offline sales is 5x higher than the lift in e-commerce sales The click is misleading as a measure of campaign effectiveness 23 Source: Whither the Click? 139 comscore studies in the June 2009 Journal of Advertising Research

24 Making Measurement Make Sense (3MS) Mission: Reduce costs of doing business due to complexity of digital advertising ecosystem Single Tag solution to reduce complexity Improve reporting of ad exposure Bolster confidence that ads delivered are actually visible 24

25 Billions of impressions are being delivered how can retailers ensure the right consumers are seeing the messaging? 25

26 vce Charter Study 18 campaigns 2 billion impressions 400k sites Allstate 26

27 Charter Findings In-view ad rates ranged from 55% to 93% across 18 campaigns 69% AVERAGE 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 27

28 Mobile Retail Trends 28

29 2011: The Rise of Mobile & Tablet Commerce Percentage of Total e-commerce Dollars Spent via Mobile or Tablet Device Source: comscore Mobile Measurements Spike in percentage of e-commerce sales via mobile coincides with surge in tablet ownership 8% 9% 5% 6% 3% 3% 2% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q

30 6.5 million new smartphones were activated in Dec 2011, the highest month of activations on record; almost 100 million people now own smartphones Acquisition Trend for Smartphone Subscriber Base and Total Smartphone Subscriber Base Source: comscore MobiLens, 3 Mo. Avg. Sep-2009 to Dec-2011 New Smartphone Acquisitions (In Millions) +7.0 Total Smartphone Subscriber Base (In Thousands) , , ,000 60,000 40,000 20,

31 Mobile retail activities are surging as smartphone adoption approaches 100 million people in the U.S. Content Categories Consumed by Mobile Phone Owners (000) & Growth vs. YA Source: comscore Mobilens, Dec-2011, U.S. 40,000 35,000 Retail Content Categories Are Among the Fastest Growing for Mobile Dec-2010 Dec % 30, % 25, % +116% 20, % +104% +96% +93% 15, % +69% 10,000 5,000 0 Classifieds Online Retail Real Estate E-Payments Auction Listings Sites Credit Cards Shopping Guides Bank Accounts Restaurant Info Travel Service 31

32 Total Audience (000) 1 in 3 smartphone owners have used a phone to find a store location, while about 20% compared product prices or features Retail Activities by Smartphone Users (000) and % of Audience Source: comscore Mobilens, Dec ,000 35,000 33% 30,000 25,000 20,000 21% 20% 19% 17% 17% 16% 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Found store location Compared product prices Researched product features Found coupons or deals Made shopping lists Checked product availability Used deal-aday 32

33 While in a brick-and-mortar retail store, 12% of smartphone owners compared prices and 10% searched for information on product features Activities Performed on Mobile While in a Retail Store, % of Smartphone Audience Source: comscore Mobilens, Dec-2011, U.S. 22% 21% 18% 17% 13% 12% 10% 9% 6% Took picture of a product Texted or called friends/family about a product Scanned a product barcode Sent picture of product to family/friends Found store location Compared product prices Found coupons or deals Researched product features Checked product availability 33

34 2011 Holiday Shopping Season e-commerce Wrap-Up and Key Findings 34

35 The 2011 U.S. e-commerce holiday season surpassed all previous years in sales and grew 15% versus year ago Holiday Season* Retail e-commerce Sales ($ Billions) Growth vs. YA Source: comscore e-commerce Measurement Holiday Season $ in Billions Y/Y Growth Rates $40.0 $ % $35.0 $30.0 $25.0 $20.0 $ % $ % $29.2 $28.0 $29.1 $ % +15%** 25% 20% 15% 10% $15.0 $ % 5% 0% $5.0-4% -5% $ % * Holiday Season includes November and December **Percentage change includes seasonal adjustment to account for unequal number of weekdays and weekend days in 2010 and

36 Through Dec 31 st, ten individual days this past season have surpassed $1 Billion in spending, compared to only one last year 2011 U.S. Online Holiday Spending by Day Source: comscore e-commerce Measurement, 2011 $1,400,000,000 $1,200,000,000 Cyber Monday +22% Black Friday +26% Green Monday +19% Free Shipping Day +14% $1,000,000,000 Thanksgiving +18% $800,000,000 $600,000,000 $400,000,000 $200,000,000 $- 36

37 Spending Day Rank For the second consecutive year, Cyber Monday was the highest spending day throughout the holiday season Cyber Monday U.S. Online Spending in Millions (% growth vs. YA) Source: comscore E-commerce Measurement, Cyber Monday - Spending Day Rank Source: comscore E-commerce Measurement % % +15% $846 +5% $ % $1,028 $1, $ % $608 $ Cyber Monday - Spending Day Rank 37

38 Cyber Monday 2011 activity saw a relatively higher percentage of sales occur in the early morning as consumers sought out early deals and in the evening hours as retailers continued to push promotions throughout the day Cyber Monday Spending by Time of Day Source: comscore, Inc. 24% 34% Time of Day: 5pm - 9pm 44% 22% 1pm - 5pm 32% 29% 12% 3% am - 1pm Before 9am 38

39 The season began earlier because of aggressive retailer promotions and ended later because of increased confidence in free shipping 2011 Holiday Season e-commerce Spending vs. Corresponding Days in 2010* Source: comscore e-commerce Measurement Millions ($) % Change November 1 December 31 $32,589 $37, %** Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 24) $407 $ % Black Friday (Nov. 25) $648 $ % Cyber Monday (Nov. 28) $1,028 $1, % Green Monday (Dec. 12) $954 $1, % Free Shipping Day (Dec. 16) $942 $1, % Week ending Dec. 25 (Dec ) $2,450 $2, % *Corresponding days based on corresponding shopping days Heaviest online shopping day on record, surpassing $1 billion in sales for the second consecutive year Strong sales approaching end of season 39 **Percentage change includes seasonal adjustment to account for unequal number of weekdays and weekend days in 2010 and 2011

40 Free shipping in the week leading up to Cyber Monday 2011 reached a record 64% of total transactions 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 52% 51% 42% 41% Percentage of E-commerce Transactions with Free Shipping Source: comscore e-commerce Measurement 70% % 45% 56% 50% 50% 64% 55% 46% 59% 51% 53% 52% 44% 45% 59% 52% 40% 56% 56% 54% 44% 50% 41% Average Order Value on free shipping purchases was $95 during the 2011 holiday season. For non-free shipping purchases, it was $87. 40

41 Nearly 1 in 4 consumers purchased a gift via a deal-of-the-day site this holiday season Daily Deals As Holiday Gifts Q. When thinking of this past holiday season, did you purchase any gifts via deal-of-the-day sites? (Please select all that apply) Source: comscore Survey January 2012 Overall, 27% of men and 21% of women bought gifts via deal-of-the-day sites this season All consumers Men Women 10% 13% 13% 12% 11% 12% 10% 8% 5% Yes, I purchased gifts via deal of the day vouchers I had already purchased but not used Yes, I purchased a new deal this holiday season & used it to buy a gift Yes, I purchased a deal of the day as a gift (i.e. gave the voucher itself as a gift) 41

42 Promotions targeted to Fans can significantly expand the viral impact of social media to Friends of Fans 2011 Holiday Retail Promotion Analysis Ratio of Friends of Fans Reached to Fans Reached for Leading U.S. Retailers Source: comscore Social Essentials, U.S., November x Viral Lift from Promotions 2.7x x 3.4x Amazon Best Buy Target Walmart Week Ending Oct. 19 Week Ending Nov

43 For most retailers, a significantly higher percentage of Fans & Friends of Fans visited the retailer s website 2011 Holiday Retail Promotion Impact Analysis: Week Ending Nov. 30 Percentage of Brand-Exposed Fans & Friends of Fans Who Visited Retailer Website Source: comscore Social Essentials, U.S., November % Fans of Amazon were more than twice as likely to have visited the brand s site than the general Internet user 36% 27% 18% 13% 12% 8% 9% 12% 14% 22% 21% Amazon Best Buy Target Walmart Total Internet Friend of Fan Fan 43

44 Key Takeaways 44

45 Key Takeaways Quarterly e-commerce sales have increased by double digits Y/Y for five straight quarters Online growth now nearly triple total retail sales, which means that $1 in every $10 of discretionary spending will soon be spent online Channel shift to online has accelerated in 2011 Overall consumer perception of the economy improving, albeit slowly, but remains negative with unemployment and high prices top concerns. Smartphone adoption continues to explode: 6.5 million new phones activated in Dec 2011, and overall 98 million people now use smartphones Smartphones & tablets used to buy and research competitive price / product features while in-store, now accounting for 9% of Q4 dollars spent online Strong holiday e-commerce sales exceeded $37 billion, up 15% vs YA Free shipping growing in importance, far surpassing 50% of all transactions in holiday season Has it become a cost of doing business? Negative impact on retailer profit margins? 45

46 QUESTIONS? Please contact us at if you have any additional questions or comments. 46

47 Thank You! Note: A copy of this presentation will be sent to all attendees within 24 hours of today s webinar.

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