Don t Just Speculate, Investigate!

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1 2013 Annual Issues Symposium Don t Just Speculate, Investigate! The Story Behind the PEO Study Harry Shuford Practice Leader and Chief Economist May 16, 2013

2 The Story Behind the PEO Study What Are They Saying About PEOs? Much of It Is Speculation Why No Prior Investigation? It Would Be Really Difficult Initial Findings? Speculation Upended External Push Back? More Investigation Our Own Push Back? Work in Progress 2

3 What Are PEOs? Why Are There Concerns? Typical PEO Services Payroll Workers compensation Risk management Employee benefits Recruiting Training and development Employer of record for the leased workers from a PEO client company Source: National Association of Professional Employer Organizations (www.napeo.org) 3

4 What Are PEOs? Why Are There Concerns? Key Stakeholders: Workers Employers PEOs Regulators Insurers Ratemaking organizations 4

5 The Story Behind the PEO Study What Are They Saying About PEOs? Much of It Is Speculation Why No Prior Investigation? It Would Be Really Difficult Initial Findings? Speculation Upended External Push Back? More Investigation Our Own Push Back? Work in Progress 5

6 What Are PEOs? Why Are There Concerns? Regulatory Concerns and PEOs: Worker abuse/lax workplace safety Inadequate OSHA reporting Compliance with state WC proof of coverage Speculation about PEO Behavior and Ratemaking: Under-report or misclassify payroll Under-report workplace injuries Avoid/distort experience rating mods 6

7 The Story Behind the PEO Study What Are They Saying About PEOs? Much of It Is Speculation Why No Prior Investigation? It Would Be Really Difficult Initial Findings? Speculation Upended External Push Back? More Investigation Our Own Push Back? Work in Progress 7

8 Linking Policy and Unit Reporting Systems Started With Unit Data Proof of Coverage (POC) NCCI s PEO team in Regulatory Services Division Linked Policy and Unit Reporting Systems Data and IT 8

9 Understanding the Data Multiple Policy Types in POC Data: Master policies Multiple Coordinated Client policies Multiple PEO policies PEO Direct Employee policies Changing Regulatory Environment: State regulations affect PEO market shares by PEO policy models over time Worked again with NCCI s PEO team 9

10 Understanding PEOs and Issues in Experience Rating and Residual Market Experience Rating Concerns and PEOs NCCI s Experience Rating Team Residual Market Issues and PEOs NCCI s Residual Market Team 10

11 Ratemaking Data Issues and PEOs AES Class Ratemaking Team Data Validation Issues and PEOs Creating Industry Group Level Data 11

12 Insolvencies and PEOs Working With Annual Statement Data Estimating Loss Reserve Adequacy Schedule P 12

13 Obtaining External Information NAPEO Member List Linked to WC data for market share and size analysis Google Search Obtaining names of insolvent companies Linked to WC data for PEO share and loss experience analysis For background; no plans to publish individual company data Linked to Annual Statement data for reserve analysis 13

14 The Story Behind the PEO Study What Are They Saying About PEOs? Much of It Is Speculation Why No Prior Investigation? It Would Be Really Difficult Initial Findings? Speculation Upended External Push Back? More Investigation Our Own Push Back? Work in Progress 14

15 2013 Annual Issues Symposium PEOs in the WC Market

16 PEO Clients Appear to Be Small Businesses 25.0 Number of Workers per Employer/Client Client Master PEO Policy Client MCP PEO Policies Client Multiple PEO Policies Employer Non-PEO Policy Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI, for Policy Year

17 PEO Clients Appear to Be Small Businesses 25.0 Number of Workers per Employer/Client Client Master PEO Policy Client MCP PEO Policies Client Multiple PEO Policies Employer Non-PEO Policy Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI, for Policy Year

18 PEOs in WC Markets Over PY 2004 Through PY 2010 On Average Small Market Shares 1 to 2 percent payroll share in the voluntary market 2 to 6 percent of the residual market Great State Variation In PY 2009: Florida 6 percent in voluntary market Arizona 30 percent in residual market Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI Voluntary Market: 37 NCCI ratemaking states; CA, DE, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, NC, ND, OH,PA, WA, WI, and WY are excluded Residual Market: 25 NCCI ratemaking states AK, AL, AR, AZ, CT, DC, GA, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, MS, MO, NE, NV, NH, NM, OR, SC, SD, TN, VT, VA, and WV are included NCCI is not the residual market plan administrator in IN, TN, MO, and NE 18

19 2013 Annual Issues Symposium PEO Loss Experience Report)

20 PEO Loss Experience Is Comparable to Non-PEO Frequencies are higher by number of workers Indicating that under-reporting claims is not apparent in the data Severities are comparable Loss ratios by manual premium and modified premium tend to be comparable, if not lower Indicating that under-reporting or misclassifying payroll is not apparent in the data Also indicating that there is no major problem with PEOs avoiding experience mods Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI Voluntary Market: 37 NCCI ratemaking states; CA, DE, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, NC, ND, OH,PA, WA, WI, and WY are excluded Residual Market: 25 NCCI ratemaking states AK, AL, AR, AZ, CT, DC, GA, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, MS, MO, NE, NV, NH, NM, OR, SC, SD, TN, VT, VA, and WV are included NCCI is not the residual market plan administrator in IN, TN, MO, and NE 20

21 Lost-Time Claims Loss Ratio by Modified Premium Comparable or Lower Loss Report Non-PEOs LDs PEOs LDs Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI Voluntary Market: 37 NCCI ratemaking states; CA, DE, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, NC, ND, OH,PA, WA, WI, and WY are excluded Residual Market: 25 NCCI ratemaking states AK, AL, AR, AZ, CT, DC, GA, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, MS, MO, NE, NV, NH, NM, OR, SC, SD, TN, VT, VA, and WV are included NCCI is not the residual market plan administrator in IN, TN, MO, and NE 21

22 Lost-Time Claims Loss Ratio by Modified Premium Comparable or Lower Loss Report Non-PEOs LDs PEOs LDs Lost-Time Claims Loss Ratio by Modified Premium Non-PEO Oth PEOs Oth Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI Voluntary Market: 37 NCCI ratemaking states; CA, DE, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, NC, ND, OH,PA, WA, WI, and WY are excluded Residual Market: 25 NCCI ratemaking states AK, AL, AR, AZ, CT, DC, GA, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, MS, MO, NE, NV, NH, NM, OR, SC, SD, TN, VT, VA, and WV are included NCCI is not the residual market plan administrator in IN, TN, MO, and NE 22

23 Lost-Time Claims Loss Ratio by Modified Premium Comparable or Lower Loss Report Non-PEOs LDs PEOs LDs Lost-Time Claims Loss Ratio by Modified Premium Non-PEO Oth PEOs Oth Lost-Time Claims Loss Ratio by Modified Premium Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI Voluntary Market: 37 NCCI ratemaking states; CA, DE, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, NC, ND, OH,PA, WA, WI, and WY are excluded Residual Market: 25 NCCI ratemaking states AK, AL, AR, AZ, CT, DC, GA, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, MS, MO, NE, NV, NH, NM, OR, SC, SD, TN, VT, VA, and WV are included NCCI is not the residual market plan administrator in IN, TN, MO, and NE Non-PEO RM PEOs RM

24 Is It Industry Mix? PEO industry mix by payroll is comparable to non- PEO Loss ratio experience across industry groups is comparable Exception: miscellaneous group shows adverse loss experience for PEO clients Initial analysis indicates transportation industry exposure in PEO clients may be a factor Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI 24

25 2013 Annual Issues Symposium The Story Behind the PEO Study

26 The Story Behind the PEO Study What Are They Saying About PEOs? Much of It Is Speculation Why No Prior Investigation? It Would Be Really Difficult Initial Findings? Speculation Upended External Push Back? More Investigation Our Own Push Back? Work in Progress 26

27 The Story Behind the PEO Study: External Push Back Anecdotal data suggests that PEOs are problems Why no apparent material differences between PEO and non-peo lost ratios? Assertions PEOs may look OK at Second Report But reporting delays by PEOs likely result in worse ultimate experience PEOs are responsible for the three most recent WC insurer insolvencies More PEO data must be excluded from ratemaking because of poor data quality PEOs serve as a front for mod washing 27

28 Workers Compensation Data Suggests That the PEO Market Is Highly Concentrated 28

29 15 Largest PEO Companies Comprise Approximately Two-Thirds Market; National PEOs Members Make Up Majority of PEO Industry Policy Year 2009 Data Top % Next 5 Next 5 Other 2.6% 8.5% Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI National Association of Professional Employer Organizations (NAPEO) NAPEO 2012; Used with permission PEO policy models Master policy, MCP policies, Multiple PEO policies, and PEO direct employee policies are included National PEOs list was based on membership list at napeo.org in April 2012 MCP policies may not have PEO information as named insured NCCI 37 ratemaking states only 29

30 15 Largest PEO Companies Comprise Approximately Two-Thirds Market; National PEOs Members Make Up Majority of PEO Industry Policy Year 2009 Data 40.1% 48.8% Top 5 Next 5 Next 5 Other 2.6% 8.5% Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI National Association of Professional Employer Organizations (NAPEO) NAPEO 2012; Used with permission PEO policy models Master policy, MCP policies, Multiple PEO policies, and PEO direct employee policies are included National PEOs list was based on membership list at napeo.org in April 2012 MCP policies may not have PEO information as named insured NCCI 37 ratemaking states only 30

31 PEO Size PY 2007 PEO Business Entities With Master Policies Cumulative Premium Share (%) Cumulative Premium Share Number of PEO Business Entities: Ranked by Premium Size Left to Right Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI NCCI 37 ratemaking states only 31

32 PEO Size PY 2007 PEO Business Entities With Master Policies Cumulative Premium Share (%) th largest PEO, 57% Cumulative Premium Share Number of PEO Business Entities: Ranked by Premium Size Left to Right Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI NCCI 37 ratemaking states only 32

33 PEO Size PY 2007 PEO Business Entities With Master Policies Cumulative Premium Share (%) th largest PEO, 63% 15th largest PEO, 57% Cumulative Premium Share Number of PEO Business Entities: Ranked by Premium Size Left to Right Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI NCCI 37 ratemaking states only 33

34 PEO Size PY 2007 PEO Business Entities With Master Policies Cumulative Premium Share (%) th largest PEO, 63% 15th largest PEO, 57% Cumulative Premium Share Number of PEO Business Entities: Ranked by Premium Size Left to Right Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI NCCI 37 ratemaking states only 34

35 PEO Size PY 2007 PEO Business Entities With Master Policies Cumulative Premium Share (%) th largest PEO, 63% 15th largest PEO, 57% Cumulative Premium Share Number of PEO Business Entities: Ranked by Premium Size Left to Right Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI NCCI 37 ratemaking states only 35

36 PEO Size PY 2007 PEO Business Entities With Master Policies Cumulative Premium Share (%) th largest PEO, 63% 15th largest PEO, 57% Cumulative Premium Share Number of PEO Business Entities: Ranked by Premium Size Left to Right Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI NCCI 37 ratemaking states only 36

37 PEO Size PY 2007 PEO Business Entities With Master Policies Cumulative Premium Share (%) th largest PEO, 63% 15th largest PEO, 57% Cumulative Premium Share Master PEO Policy 77.2% Number of PEO Business Entities: Ranked by Premium Size Left to Right Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI NCCI 37 ratemaking states only 37

38 What Is the Survival Rate of PEOs? Single-State PEO Risks Do Not Fare Well Kaplan-Meier Curves for Continuous Active Coverage of Risks in PY 2005 Tracked Between PY 2001 and PY 2010 Survival Probability (%) Type of Risk PEO Client Risk PEO Risk Standard Risk Time (years) Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI NCCI 36 ratemaking states with WV excluded Analysis is conducted on risks with a policy in PY 2005; All risks are tracked over the period from PY 2001 to PY 2010 (inclusive) Active continuous coverage prior to PY 2001 does not contribute to the length of active continuous coverage (i.e., "Time") 38

39 What Is the Survival Rate of PEOs? Two- to Three-State PEO Risks Fare a Bit Better Kaplan-Meier Curves for Continuous Active Coverage of Risks in PY 2005 Tracked Between PY 2001 and PY 2010 Survival Probability (%) Type of Risk PEO Client Risk PEO Risk Standard Risk Time (years) Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI NCCI 36 ratemaking states with WV excluded Analysis is conducted on risks with a policy in PY 2005; All risks are tracked over the period from PY 2001 to PY 2010 (inclusive) Active continuous coverage prior to PY 2001 does not contribute to the length of active continuous coverage (i.e., "Time") 39

40 What Is the Survival Rate of PEOs? Large Multi-State PEO Risks Outperform the Market Kaplan-Meier Curves for Continuous Active Coverage of Risks in PY 2005 Tracked Between PY 2001 and PY 2010 Survival Probability (%) Type of Risk PEO Client Risk PEO Risk Standard Risk Time (years) Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI NCCI 36 ratemaking states with WV excluded Analysis is conducted on risks with a policy in PY 2005; All risks are tracked over the period from PY 2001 to PY 2010 (inclusive) Active continuous coverage prior to PY 2001 does not contribute to the length of active continuous coverage (i.e., "Time") 40

41 PEO Loss Development 41

42 PEO Claim Development Versus Non-PEO Claim Development Mean :5 Claim Development PEO Std 1:5 Report Claim Development Lost-Time Claims PEO Std PEO Std Voluntary Large Deductible Voluntary Non-Large Deductible Residual Market Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI Voluntary Market: 37 NCCI ratemaking states; CA, DE, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, NC, ND, OH,PA, WA, WI, and WY are excluded Residual Market: 25 NCCI ratemaking states AK, AL, AR, AZ, CT, DC, GA, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, MS, MO, NE, NV, NH, NM, OR, SC, SD, TN, VT, VA, and WV are included NCCI is not the residual market plan administrator in IN, TN, MO, and NE 42

43 PEO Loss Development Versus Non-PEO Loss Development :5 Report Loss Development Lost-Time Claims Mean :5 Loss Development PEO Std PEO Std PEO Std Voluntary Large Deductible Voluntary Non-Large Deductible Residual Market Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI Voluntary Market: 37 NCCI ratemaking states; CA, DE, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, NC, ND, OH,PA, WA, WI, and WY are excluded Residual Market: 25 NCCI ratemaking states AK, AL, AR, AZ, CT, DC, GA, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, MS, MO, NE, NV, NH, NM, OR, SC, SD, TN, VT, VA, and WV are included NCCI is not the residual market plan administrator in IN, TN, MO, and NE 43

44 Recent Three Insolvencies and PEO An Issue Raised in Florida Two of the Insurance Companies Domiciled in Oklahoma 44

45 PEOs and Recent Three Insurer Insolvencies 2009 Through 2011 Great Recession: Client Base Shrank Small businesses are PEO clients In the US, more than 200,000 small businesses vanished between early 2008 and 2010 Insurer Business Models Are a Factor In the year prior to insolvency, virtually all of the premium for each of the three carriers was produced by PEO workers compensation insurance policies Park Avenue established in 1986 Pegasus in 1980 Southern Eagle (2005) was a captive insurance company Source: NAIC Annual Statement Data 45

46 PEOs and Recent Three Insurer Insolvencies Using Annual Statement data: Loss reserve analysis Non-admitted assets and receivables for large deductibles 46

47 Premium Declined for All Three Insolvencies During Recession Net Written Premium (Dollars in Millions) '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 Southern Eagle Insurance Co. Park Avenue P&C Insurance Co. Pegasus Insurance Co. Source: NAIC Annual Statement Data 47

48 Southern Eagle Reserve Adequacy Southern Eagle Development w/asb Tail Paid Method Paid+Case Method (Dollars in Thousands) 2010 (Dollars in Thousands) 2005 $ (933.32) $ (268.80) $ (1,686.31) 2006 $ (1,228.88) $ (492.16) 2007 $ (653.88) $ (43.01) 2008 $ (523.01) $ (62.89) 2009 $ $ $ (484.43) $ Surplus $ 8, Source: NAIC Annual Statement Data and NCCI Annual Statistical Bulletin (ASB) ASB Development Paid Method Paid+Case Method (Dollars in Thousands) 2005 $ (933.32) $ (268.80) $ (8,281.84) 2006 $ (1,429.03) $ (642.64) 2007 $ (1,012.29) $ (213.03) 2008 $ (2,438.56) $ (1,080.88) 2009 $ (3,675.99) $ (1,461.34) 2010 $ (2,441.25) $ (966.54) 48

49 The Story Behind the PEO Study What Are They Saying About PEOs? Much of It Is Speculation Why No Prior Investigation? It Would Be Really Difficult Initial Findings? Speculation Upended External Push Back? More Investigation Our Own Push Back? Work in Progress 49

50 Assertion: There Is More Litigation in PEO Claims 50

51 Why More Litigation for PEOs? Assertions Prompt Handling of Claims Is Important: Geographical separation between PEO and client and injured worker Inconsistent Policy Data: Claims class codes may not line up with policy exposure class codes Large number of client class codes and churning of PEO clients 51

52 Attorney Involvement and ALAE Allocated Loss Adjustment Expense (ALAE) Accumulation of expenses incurred in investigating and settling claims, assignable to specific claims Examples: legal fees, adjusting fees, court costs, medical costs containment expenses, services required by law or insurance regulation NCCI data: Paid ALAE in IDB 52

53 PEO Claims ALAE Costs Are Slightly Higher Relative to Losses Reporting Period Paid Report Percentage of Paid ALAE to Paid Losses for Lost-Time Claims 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 14.0% 9.1% PEO 11.1% 11.2% 9.4% 9.7% non-peo 12.9% 10.1% 14.2% 15.0% 10.4% 10.6% 0% Policy Year Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI 53

54 Assertion: PEOs Have More Data Excluded Because of Quality Concerns 54

55 PEOs Have a Lower Portion of Excluded Data Versus Non-PEOs 3.00% 2009 Data 2.50% 2.463% Portion of Excluded Data % 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% PEO non-peo 1.303% 0.00% 0.065% 0.154% Portion of Excluded Policies Portion of Excluded Premium Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI Exclusion indication from NCCI Class Ratemaking data 55

56 PEOs Have a Lower Portion of Excluded Data Versus Non-PEOs % 2009 Data Portion of Excluded Data % 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% PEO non-peo 0.00% 0.065% 0.154% 1.303% Portion of Excluded Policies 2.463% Portion of Excluded Premium Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI Exclusion indication from NCCI Class Ratemaking data 56

57 PEO and WC Experience Rating System A Front for Mod Washing? 57

58 PEO and WC Experience Rating System Approximately 90% of PEO Clients Do Not Qualify for Experience Mods 58

59 Only a Tiny Fraction of All Risks Disappear for Two to Three Years, Then Return Portion of Risks All Other 1-Year Data Gap 2-Year Data Gap 3+ Years Data Gap Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI Analysis is conducted on risks with a policy in PY 2005; All risks are tracked over the period from PY 2001 to PY 2010 (inclusive) Active continuous coverage prior to PY 2001 does not contribute to the length of active continuous coverage (i.e., "Time") 59

60 Only a Tiny Fraction of All Risks Disappear for Two to Three Years, Then Return Portion of Risks All Other 1-Year Data Gap 2-Year Data Gap 3+ Years Data Gap Source: Workers Compensation Statistical Plan data and Workers Compensation Policy data reported to NCCI Analysis is conducted on risks with a policy in PY 2005; All risks are tracked over the period from PY 2001 to PY 2010 (inclusive) Active continuous coverage prior to PY 2001 does not contribute to the length of active continuous coverage (i.e., "Time") 60

61 Takeaway Investigate Rather Than Just Speculate It Typically Will Be a Challenge If it were easy, it likely would have been done Expect Resistance to Initial Results Especially if the findings differ materially from the ex ante speculation Be Your Own Greatest Skeptic Challenge your findings you should know more about the subject than anyone else 61

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