Thailand Banking Sector Outlook

Transcription

1 Thailand Banking Sector Outlook Geeta Chugh Senior Director and Analytical Manager Financial Institutions Ratings, Emerging Asia September, 2014 Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor s. Copyright 2014 by Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved.

2 Agenda Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Thailand Vs Asia Pac Political Unrest, A Sluggish Economy, And High Household Debt Pose Challenges We expect nonperforming loans (NPLs) and delinquencies in the Thai banking industry to increase gradually in the next 12 to 24 months Earnings To Sustain Despite High Credit Costs Sufficient Risk Adjusted Capital for Rating Category Funding and Liquidity Stable Banking Sector Stability Will Persevere Key Risk Factors For FIs Elsewhere in Asia Source: Thailand Banking Outlook 2014: Political Uncertainty Could Cast A Shadow On Banks' Performance published on Feb.11, 2014

3 Thailand Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment

4 Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Thailand Vs Asia Pacific Economic Risk Sri Lanka Papua New Guinea, Vietnam Cambodia Mongolia 7 Thailand Philippines Indonesia 6 China 5 Malaysia India 4 Korea Brunei 3 Hong Kong Singapore New Zealand Taiwan 2 Australia Japan Industry Risk Source: Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Update: August 2014

5 Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Thailand Source: Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: Thailand published on Dec 26,

6 Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Thailand Trends on Risk Factors We view the trend for economic risk as stable. Political uncertainty if persists could affect near-term economic growth and the trends for loan growth and property prices Underdeveloped infrastructure and delayed structural reforms pose further constraints, in our opinion High leverage for both household and corporate sectors and further economic imbalances building up could expose banks to the risk of an increase in credit losses in a slowing economy On a positive note, Thai banks have low sector concentration, particularly to high risk sectors We expect the industry risk to remain stable for the next couple of years We think that the institutional framework and competitive dynamics will stay stable over the next few years Additionally, while we do not expect a sustained deterioration in the sector's funding profile over the next two to four years, we note that a potential weakness in systemwide funding is emerging Industry risks for banks operating in Thailand could increase because of the sector's weaker funding profile, if loan growth remains high and deposit growth is unable to match the pace Source: Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: Thailand published on Dec 26,

7 BICRA Heat Map Comparison Of Thailand With Other Key Global Systems Economic Risk Factors and Descriptors Country BICRA Economic Economic Credit risk Economic Institutional Competitive Systemwide Industry Group Resilience Imbalances in Econ. Risk Framework Dynamics Funding Risk Switzerland 1 Very Low Very Low Low 1 Low Low Low 2 Australia 2 Very Low Interm. Low 2 Very Low Very Low Interm. 2 Canada 2 Very Low Interm. Low 2 Very Low Low Low 2 Germany 2 Very Low Very Low Low 1 Interm. Interm. Very Low 3 Hong Kong 2 Very Low High Low 3 Very Low Low Very Low 1 Japan 2 Low Low Low 2 Interm. Interm. Very Low 3 Singapore 2 Very Low High Low 3 Very Low Low Low 2 France 3 Low Interm. Low 3 Low Interm. Low 3 New Zealand 3 Very Low Interm. Interm. 3 Low Low High 4 United States 3 Very Low Interm. Interm. 3 Interm. High Very Low 4 United Kingdom 3 Very Low Interm. High 4 Interm. Interm. Low 3 Korea 3 Interm. Low High 4 Interm. Interm. Low 3 Malaysia 4 High Low High 5 Interm. Interm. Low 3 Taiwan 4 Interm. Low Interm. 3 Interm. Very High Very Low 5 Brazil 5 High High Interm. 6 Interm. High Interm. 5 Italy 5 High Interm. High 6 Interm. Interm. High 5 India 5 High Low High 5 High High Low 5 China 5 Interm. High High 6 High High Very Low 5 Thailand 6 High Interm. Very High 7 Interm. High Low 4 Spain 6 Interm. Very High High 7 Interm. Interm. High 5 Philippines 7 Very High Low Very High 7 Very High Interm. Interm. 6 Indonesia 7 Very High Interm. Very High 7 Very High High Interm. 7 Russia 7 High Interm. Very High 7 Very High High High 7 Sri Lanka 8 Very High High Very High 8 Very High High High 7 Vietnam 9 Very High High Ext. High 9 Ext. High Very High Interm. 8 Mongolia 9 High Ext High Very High 9 Ext. High High Very High 9 Cambodia 9 Ext. High Interm. Ext. High 9 Ext. High High Very High 9 Greece 10 Very High Very High Ext. High 10 High High Ext. High 8 Source: Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Update: August 2014 Industry Risk Factors and Descriptors

8 Political Unrest, A Sluggish Economy, And High Household Debt Pose Challenges

9 Political Uncertainty Has Hurt Economic And Bank Credit Growth 8.0% 7.8% GDP growth (%) - Left axis Credit Growth (%) - Right axis 14.9% 13.7% 6.5% 16.0% 6.0% 11.3% 11.0% 12.0% 4.0% 2.9% 8.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1.1% 4.0% 0.0% 0.1% f 0.0% The recent political uncertainty has constrained economic growth and bank lending growth Although the military imposed martial law in May, it insisted that it was not trying to usurp power from the civilian government, which remains in place In our view, the army's action could help stabilize the situation by forestalling a potential violent conflict between opposing sides and by bringing the protagonists together to negotiate an interim solution so that another election can take place Nevertheless, the growing political instability over the past half a year has taken a toll on consumption and investment, depressing near-term growth prospects Source: Thailand Banking Outlook 2014: Political Uncertainty Could Cast A Shadow On Banks' Performance published on Feb.11, 2014 Ratings On Thailand Affirmed At 'BBB+/A-2' And 'A-/A-2'; Outlook Stable, May 22, 2014 Note: 2014 Credit growth number is the YOY growth for the period ending June 2014

10 Economic Growth Dependent On Interest Rate Cut And Improvement In Global Economy % Policy Rates (%) - Left axis USD/THB - Right axis Mar-14 Aug An improvement in the global economy could boost the performance of exporters and exportoriented companies in Thailand Central bank cut its policy rate to a three year low to boost spending after economic growth dropped sharply in 2013 Source: Central Bank website and Oanda

11 Thailand s Household Debt Has Risen Sharply 90% Household Debt to GDP (%) 80% 70% 60% 50% Malaysia Thailand* Singapore Hong Kong Rising household debt could expose banks' to an increasing risk of customer default Household leverage is comparable with that of Singapore & Malaysia, countries with significantly higher income levels than Thailand Competition among financial institutions to lend to households has been particularly aggressive Households now more vulnerable to increase in interest rates and economic slowdown, especially if unemployment rises Source: Thailand Banking Outlook 2014: Political Uncertainty Could Cast A Shadow On Banks' Performance published on Feb.11, 2014 and Central Bank data

12 Thailand And Malaysia Are The Most Vulnerable In Asia

13 Consumer Loans in Thailand Have Shown More Stress % Nonperforming loans Delinquencies Corp. Cons. Corp. Cons. Corp. Cons. Corp. Cons. Corp. Cons. Corp. Cons June 2014 Car loans witnessed the maximum stress with NPLs at 2.3% and Delinquencies at 8.2% of total loans at end-june 2014 Banks have recently tightened underwriting standards in the consumer segment, and this should limit the rise in NPLs Overall, we expect NPLs to remain manageable despite upward trend Source: Thailand Banking Outlook 2014: Political Uncertainty Could Cast A Shadow On Banks' Performance published on Feb.11, 2014, Central Bank Delinquencies refers to special mention loans or past due loans over one month but not over three months

14 Political Unrest, A Sluggish Economy, And High Household Debt Could All Hurt Asset Quality We expect nonperforming loans (NPLs) and delinquencies in the Thai banking industry to increase gradually in the next 12 to 24 months. Political developments in Thailand in the past few months have led to volatility in the Thai baht and the stock market, and slowed economic activity. Prolonged political protests could hamper normal business operations and hurt corporate performance, particularly the SME sector. Any increase in the severity and duration of the protests also risks hurting the country's vital tourism sector. Household debt has also increased sharply and is now comparable with that of Singapore and Malaysia, countries whose income levels are significantly higher than Thailand's. All these conditions could result in rising loan delinquencies. However, recently tightened underwriting standards in the consumer segment should limit the rise in NPLs. Overall, we expect NPLs to remain manageable despite increasing. Source: Thailand Banking Outlook 2014: Political Uncertainty Could Cast A Shadow On Banks' Performance published on Feb.11, 2014

15 Earnings To Sustain Despite High Credit Costs Thai Bank s Reserves Have Increased We anticipate that the Thai banking industry's return on average assets could remain range bound constrained by continuing high credit costs and lending related fee-income. Banks unlikely to sharply slash interest rates, so earnings pressure should be limited Likewise, Credit costs have already been high for a few years now because banks had beefed up their reserves, and coverage ratios had improved substantially. Therefore, we do not expect any further increase in credit costs unless the operating environment deteriorates sharply Source: Thailand Banking Outlook 2014: Political Uncertainty Could Cast A Shadow On Banks' Performance published on Feb.11, 2014

16 Sufficient Risk Adjusted Capital For Rating Category 10 Risk- Adjusted Capital for Rated Thai Banks (%) Bangkok Bank Bank of Ayudhya Kasikornbank Krung Thai Siam Comm TMB UOB Thai Note: The risk weights are adjusted to reflect the current BICRA and economic risk score for Thailand Sources: Company data as of Dec. 31, 2012, Standard & Poor's. 8

17 Funding And Liquidity Should Remain Largely Unchanged We expect funding and liquidity profiles to remain stable in the scenario of moderate credit growth Highly stable core customer deposits will continue to account for a large portion of the banking system's total funding, keeping banks' dependence on external funding low. Deposits cost could rise as the competition intensifies post reduction in deposit guarantee ceiling Deposit Protection Agency contemplating reducing the ceiling to 25 million baht per depositor by August 2015 and to 1 million from August 2016 This could result in heightened competition amongst banks, though we expect stronger banks to benefit Smaller and weaker banks profile could get further impacted if depositors insist on higher risk premium Source: Thailand Banking Outlook 2014: Political Uncertainty Could Cast A Shadow On Banks' Performance published on Feb.11, 2014

18 Banking Sector Stability Will Persevere Our outlook on Thailand's banking sector remains stable. Although we expect bank's financial performance to weaken due to higher economic risk, we have already factored this deterioration into our recent rating actions on Thai banks Late last year, we revised our banking industry country risk assessment for Thailand to '6' from '5' to reflect our view that economic risks for banks in the country have risen That said, our base-case projections do not factor in prolonged or severe political unrest, which could harm the banking system Source: Thailand Banking Outlook 2014: Political Uncertainty Could Cast A Shadow On Banks' Performance published on Feb.11, 2014

19 Credit Profile Of S&P Rated Thai Banks Bank Name Bangkok Bank Bank of Ayudhya Kasikorn Krung Thai Siam Comm TMB United Overseas ICR (Long Term) BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB+ BBB- BBB+ SACP bbb bb+ bbb- bb+ bbb- bb+ bb- Anchor bb+ bb+ bb+ bb+ bb+ bb+ bb+ Economic Risk Industry Risk Business Position Strong Adequate Strong Adequate Strong Adequate Moderate Capital and Earnings Adequate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Adequate Risk Position Adequate Adequate Adequate Adequate Adequate Adequate Adequate Funding Above Average Average Average Average Average Average Below Average Liquidity Strong Adequate Adequate Adequate Adequate Adequate Adequate Sovereign Tendency to support Private sector FI Highly Supportive Highly Supportive Highly Supportive Highly Supportive Highly Supportive Highly Supportive Highly Supportive Systemic Importance High High High High High Moderate Low Likelihood of Gvt Support High High High High High Moderately high Low Parent Support No Highly Strategic No No No No Core Source: Standard & Poor s 13

20 Thai Bank Ratings Relative To Asia Pacific Peers Issuer Rating SACP Rating Distribution for for Asia Asia Pacific Banks (%) Bangkok Bank Public Co. Ltd. BBB+/Stable/A-2 axa+/--/axa-1 bbb 35 Bank of Ayudhya Public Co. Ltd. BBB+/Stable/A-2 axa+/--/axa-1 bb+ 30 KASIKORNBANK PCL. BBB+/Stable/A-2 axa+/--/axa-1 bbb Krung Thai Bank Public Co. Ltd. BBB/Stable/A-2 axa/-- /axa-2 bb+ 15 Siam Commercial Bank Public Co. Ltd. BBB+/Stable/A-2 axa+/--/axa-1 bbb- 10 TMB Bank Public Co. Ltd. BBB-/Stable/A-3 axa-/--/axa-2 bb+ 5 United Overseas Bank (Thai) Public Co., Ltd. BBB+/Stable/A-2 axa+/--/axa-1 bb- 0 Source: Standard & Poor s

21 Key Risk Factors For FIs In Asia We expect Asia-Pacific banks to face challenges in maintaining asset quality Slower growth and tightening monetary conditions in China More volatile foreign exchanges and interest rates caused by US tapering Vulnerabilities expose some countries more than others Structural issues such as overcapacity of some industries ( China, Korea, India, and Japan) High household debt aiding economic imbalances (Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, and Singapore) High/Rising property prices (China, HK, Malaysia, Australia, New Zealand) Impact - Increased pressure on asset quality and earnings That said, we do not foresee an increase in negative rating actions in the next year. We expect major banks in Asia-Pacific to retain strength. Source: Asia-Pacific Credit Outlook 2014: A Sigh Of Relief As Growth And Market Risks Subside, Dec 10,

22 Key Related Research Research Update: Ratings On Thailand Affirmed At 'BBB+/A-2' And 'A-/A-2'; Outlook Stable, May 22, 2014 Bulletin: Dismissal Of Thailand's Prime Minister Is Credit Negative, But Rating Not Affected, May 8, 2014 Sovereign Defaults And Rating Transition Data, 2013 Update, April 18, 2014 Thailand's Rice Support Scheme Highlights Policy Risk But Won't Hurt The Sovereign Rating, March 12, 2014 Election Woes In Bangladesh And Thailand Raise Risk But Don't Yet Undermine Sovereign Ratings, Feb. 18,

23 Thank You Geeta Chugh Senior Director and Analytical Manager Financial Institutions Ratings, Emerging Asia T: Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor s. Copyright 2014 by Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved. 14

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