Market Review. China LNG Plants Turnaround, JYD CHINA NATURAL GAS MARKET WEEKLY REPORT

Transcription

1 JYD CHINA NATURAL GAS MARKET WEEKLY REPORT February 5, 215 Market Review Southwest China Market LNG listing price went down sharply by CNY1/mt to CNY4,9 5,/mt. Major LNG transaction price was estimated at CNY4,5-4,7/mt, down CNY175/ mt. As the Spring Festival approaches, some LNG plants offered discounts at transactions to reduce inventory. Some downstream aluminum plants and glass plants had already halted for holiday, reducing the demand. Huayou Guang an halted production on Feb 4th for cost pressure, but sales in other plants were not improved obviously because of this. Yangtze River Area Market This week, LNG price in Henan continued to go down at a rate lower than that of last week. ZhongYuan Lvneng was still under maintenance and sold small amount LNG from their inventory. Lvneng Rongchaung priced at CNY4,6/ mt with good sales. Ancai priced at CNY4,8/mt. Jingbao Xinao priced at CNY4,3/mt, down CNY2/mt. Despite LNG supply from Inner Mongolia and Shanxi, local LNG plants managed to maintain smooth sales. Joint capacity in the region was about 3,,m3, giving priority to local demand. Inner Mongolia Market LNG was mainly transacted at CNY3,7-3,9/mt and weak demand led to thin trading in the region. This week witnessed normal production and sales in Jianyuan Coking, production halt in Xingxing Energy and maintenance in ChinaCoal. Northeast China Market LNG output was flat, and discounts were offered at transactions. Some local LNG plants largely cut down their prices to compete with LNG plants in Inner Mongolia, where transportation was smooth. Prices of Daqing Qingran, Liaoning Yingkou and Changchun Huarun were as low as CNY4,8-5,1/mt, down CNY1 from the previous week. East China Market Supply from LNG station was adequate. Stations in Rudong priced at CNY5,/mt, down CNY/mt; stations in Ningbo, Zhejiang priced at CNY5,6/mt, down CNY3/ mt and stations in Putian, Fujian priced at CNY5,/m, down CNY2/mt. This region, except for Northern Jiangsu, mainly relied on imported LNG. Northwest China Market Under less upstream restriction, some LNG plants in Shaanxi increased their output, but bad transportation caused by lasting heavy snow led to sales decline and inventory surge in LNG plants, and some warehouses were almost full. Imported gas was also seriously impacted by the bad weather. Except for local consumption, gas produced in Northwest China also a main provider to surrounding regions, little of it was transported southward. This week, LNG was mainly transacted at CNY3,9-4,/mt, down CNY2-3/mt week on week. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shanxi Market LNG price in the region was generally stable, excluding Shanxi. In Shanxi, LNG price went down to about CNY4,1/mt, discounts were offered to big transactions. Demand from surrounding markets was still weak and sales of imported LNG also faced great pressure. China LNG Plants Turnaround, Region Northwest China Southwest China Northeast China Shandong North China m3 Plant Capacity Start Time End Time Normal Daily Output Longmen Coal Chemical 1, 4-Jan Xinjiang Borui 3 23-Jul Minsheng Bishan 1-Sep-214 Tianji Energy 2 15-Oct Tianxiang Energy 15-Oct-214 Tiande Energy 7 15-Oct-214 Taian Kunlun 2,6 25-Nov Dec-214 1, Inner Mongolia Xingsheng 2, 2-Dec Xingxing Energy 1, 5-Feb ChinaCoal 1, 5-Feb P-1

2 China Coastal Imported Cargoes Delivery, 215 'mt Delivery Time Vessel Source Destination Importer Volume 2-Feb MOZAH Qatar Caofeidian PetroChina 11 2-Feb CLEAN PLANET Malaysia Rudong PetroChina 65 2-Feb Dapengyue Australia Shenzhen CNOOC 6 3-Feb LNG RIVER ORASHI N/A Shanghai CNOOC N/A 7-Feb Dapeng Xing Australia Shenzhen CNOOC 6 China LNG Settlement Price and List Price, 215 Region Shanxi Hebei Tianjin Settlement Price List Price 5-Feb 3-Jan Change Factory 5-Feb 3-Jan Change Gasifying Rate (m 3 /mt) 4,1-4,2 4,4-4, 4,6-4,7 4,3-4,4 4,4-4, 4,6-4,7-2 Shanxi Yigao 4,2 4, -3 1,486 Zhongguo Liansheng 4,2 4, -3 1,486 Jincheng Tianyu 4,2 4, -3 1,487 Shanxi Lvyuan 4,2 4, -3 1,486 Huaqi Bazhou N/A N/A N/A 1,458 Huaggang Renqiu 4,4 4,4 1,455 Zhangjiak Lianchu 4, 4, N/A Shuntianda 4,7 4,7 1,43 Huaqi Guang'an 4,9 5,2-3 1,472 Dazhou Huixin 5, 5, 1,495 Sichuan 4,5-4,7-4,7 4,8-175 Cangxi Datong 4,9 5, -1 1,476 Chengdu Yonglong 4,9 5, -1 1,436 Huaqi Guangyuan 4,9 5, -1 1,47 Chongqing N/A N/A N/A Chognqing Minsheng 4,9 5, -1 1,495 Yunnan Northeast China Yangtze River Area East China Shandong 5,3-5,4 4,8-5,1 4,3-4,6 4,7-5, 4,5-4,7 5,3-5,4 4,9-5,3 4,- 4,8 5,- 5,3 4,7-4, Jiehua Xianfeng 5,6 5,9-3 1,46 Fuyuan Huaxin N/A N/A N/A 1,486 Qujing Qilin N/A N/A N/A 1,48 Changchun Huarun 5, 5,3-3 1,49 Liaoning Yingkou 5, 5,3-3 1,38 Kunlun Panjin N/A N/A N/A 1,42 Tianfu Tianji N/A N/A N/A N/A Daqing Qingran 5, 5,2-2 1,38 Zhongyuan Lvneng 4,8 4,9-1 1,435 Henan Ancai 4,8 4,8 1,435 Jingbao Xin'ao 4,3 4, -2 1,482 Suzhou Huafeng 5,6 5,6 1,422 Jiangsu Tianli 5,2 5,2 1,4 Xuancheng Shenran N/A N/A N/A 1,485 Shandong Xineng N/A N/A N/A 1,42 Shandong Huasheng 5, 5, N/A Tai an kunlun N/A N/A N/A 1,46 (to be continued on page 3) P-2

3 (from page 2) China LNG Settlement Price and List Price, 215 Region Shaanxi Ningxia Xinjiang Settlement Price List Price 5-Feb 3-Jan Change Factory 5-Feb 3-Jan Change Gasifying Rate (m 3 /mt) 3,8-4, 4,- 4,2 3,1-3,2 3,9-4, 4,- 4,2 3,1-4, Gansu 4,3 4, -2 Qinghai 4,2 4,2 Inner Mongolia 3,7-3,9 3,8-4, -1 Huaqi Ansai 4,1 4, -4 1,481 Yancheng Group 4, 4,2-2 1,482 Zhongyuan Lvneng 3,9 3,9 1,456 Jingbian Xingyuan N/A N/A N/A 1,42 Jingbian Xilan 4, 4, - 1,479 Lvyuan Zizhou 4, 4, - 1,461 Yulin Yuanheng N/A N/A N/A N/A Longmen Meihua 3,9 4,3-4 1,42 Hongcheng N/A N/A N/A N/A Hanasi 4,1 4,3-2 1,488 Qingjie 4,3 4,3 1,496 Sehnran Zhongyuan 3,9 3,9 N/A Xinjiang Guanghui 3,2 3, -3 1,369 Xinjiang Hongtong 3,9 3,9 1,416 Xinjiang Borui N/A N/A N/A 1,467 Kunming Lanzhou 4,3 4, -2 1,47 Xinlianhai N/A N/A N/A 1,495 Sanxia Saipu N/A N/A N/A 1,488 Dunhuang N/A N/A N/A 1,49 Zhongyou Zhongtai N/A N/A N/A 1,495 Kunlun Qinghai 4,2 4,2 1,495 Xingxing Energy 4,1 4,2-1 1,4 Baotou Xinsheng 4,2 4,2 1,458 Xinkuang Hengkun 3,7 4,1-4 N/A Shitai 4,3 4,3 1,46 Jingpeng 4,1 4,3-2 1,42 Huida 4,3 4,3 1,445 Juchang 4,3 4,3 1,4 Huanda 4,3 4,3 1,424 Hengtong 4,3 4,3 1,44 Xing sheng N/A N/A N/A 1,39 Baotou Chuangmei 4,3 4,3 1,4 Shiyi 4,3 4,4-1 1,488 Baotou Xinyuan Self-consumed Self-consumed N/A 1,4 Dengkou Hengtai 4,3 4,3 1,419 Dengkou Desheng 4,3 4,3 1,42 Jianyuan Coking 3,8 4,4-6 N/A ChinaCoal 4,3 4,3-2 1,46 Wante N/A 3,9 N/A 1,48 Huineng 3,9 3,9 N/A P-3

4 China LNG Operation Rate & Output, January 3-February 5, 215 'm 3 Province City Plants Weekly Output Change Operating Rate Change Daily Capacity Total 162,595 1, %.56%,76 Yan'an Huaqi Ansai 7,.%.% 2, Yanchang Group 9, 85.7%.% 1, Zhongyuan Lvneng 4,2 2.%.% 3, Jingbian Xingyuan.%.% 1, Shaanxi Yulin JingbianXilan 2, % 4.3% Lvyuan Zizhou 5, %.% 1, Yulin Yuanheng 3, %.% 1, Yulin Huachen 1,7.%.% Weinan Longmen Coal Chemical.%.% 1, Hongcheng New Energy 7 1.%.% 1 Subtotal 34,3 4.55%.% 12,1 Hanasi 7, 33.3%.% 3, Ningxia Yinchuan Clear Energy 2,1.%.% 6 Shenran Zhongyuan 3, 42.8%.% 1, Subtotal 12, %.% 4,6 Tuha Xinjiang Guanghui 18,9 9.%.% 3, Xinjiang Bazhou Hongtong Gas 3,.%.% Borui Energy.%.% 3 Subtotal 22, %.% 3,8 Xingxing Energy 4, % 3.57% 1, Xinsheng Natural Gas 2,8 2.%.% 2, Jingpeng Natural Gas 2,1 1.%.% 3 Shitai Natural Gas 2,1 1.%.% 3 Xinkuang Hengkun 1,47 52.%.% 4 Erdos Xingxing Natural Gas 1,26 6.%.% 3 Huida Natural Gas % 3.57% 2 Juchang New Energy % 45.71% 1 Jianyuan Coking.%.% 2, Huineng Coking 6,3 75.%.% 1,2 ChinaCoal 2, % -6.43% 1, Inner Mongolia Huanda New Energy 1, %.% 8 Hengtong New Energy %.% 3 Baotou Xinxing New Energy %.% 3 Chuangmei New Energy %.% 2 Shiyi New Energy %.% 1 Xinyuan Natural Gas %.% 3 Hengtai New Energy %.% 3 Bayannur Chengkou Desheng %.% 3 Huaqi Bayannur 1,.%.% 3 Huhehot Wante New Energy 7 1.%.% 1 Xilingol eague Xianghuangqi Lvneng %.% 6 Subtotal 32, %.39% 11,91 Shanxi Yigao 5, %.% 9 Zhongguo Liansheng 2,8 8.%.% Jincheng Shanxi Jincheng Tianyu %.% 3 Shanxi Energy 1, 6.%.% 2 Subtotal 1, 76.92%.% 1,9 (to be continued on page 5) P-4

5 (from page 4) China LNG Operation Rate & Output, January 3-February 5, 215 'm 3 Province City Plants Weekly Output Change Operating Rate Change Daily Capacity Langfang Hebei Huaqi.%.% 1, Hebei Renqiu Huagang Renqiu 2,1 1.%.% 3 Zhangjiakou Zhangjiakou Guochu 2,4 35.%.% 1, Subtotal 4, %.% 2,3 Guang'an Huaqi Guang'an 3, % -6.43% 1, Dazhou Dazhou Huixin 4,9 2,1 7.% 3.% 1, Sichuan Guangyuan Cangxi Datong 2,1 1.%.% 3 Guangyuan Huaqi Guangyuan.%.% 1, Chengdu Chengdu Yonglong %.% 12 Subtotal 11,4 1, % 6.89% 3,42 Lanzhou Kunlun Gas Lanzhou 1,4 66.7%.% 3 Xinlianhai 56 4.%.% 2 Linxia Gansu Sanxia Saipu.%.% 2 Jiuquan Dunhuang Natural Gas 56 8.%.% 1 Subtotal 2,52 45.%.% 8 Qinghai Xining Zhongyou Zhongtai 2, %.% 4 Golmud Kunlun Gas Lanzhou 2, %.% 3 Changchun Huarun 2,17 1.%.% 3 Changchun Jilin Jixing 1,4 1.%.% 2 Jilin Songyuan Tianfu Songyuan %.% 22 Siping Tianfu Tianji.%.% 2 Liaoning Yingkou CNOOC 1,26 1.%.% 18 Panjin Kunlun Panjin 7 1.%.% 1 Heilongjiang Daqing Qingran 7 4.%.% 2 Tianjin Dagang Shuntianda %.% 12 Dagang Binhai New Energy 2,1 1.%.% 3 Ji'nan Shandong Xineng.%.% 3 Shandong Taian Taian Kunlun.%.% 2,6 Dezhou Yucheng Huayi.%.% Yanzhou Shandong Huasheng 2,1 6.%.% Puyang Zhongyuan Lvneng 2,1 1%.% 3 Henan Anyang Henan Ancai 7 1%.% 1 Pingdingshan Jingbao Xin'ao 1,26 7.%.% 3 Puyang Lvneng Rongchuang 3, 1.%.% Jiangsu Suzhou Suzhou Huafeng 28 4%.% 1 Anhui Xuancheng Xuancheng Shenran %.% 3 Chongqing Chongqing Chongqing Minsheng % 6.67% 4 Kunming Jiehua Xianfeng 2, % -9.53% 6 Yunnan Fuyuan Huaxin.%.% 18 Qujing Qujing Qilin.%.% 8 Guangdong Zhuhai CNOOC Zhuhai 3, %.% 6 Hainan Chengmai Zhongyou Shennan %.% 2 Subtotal 32, % -.4% 9,88 P-5

6 China LNG Delivery Price by Tanker, 215 Market 5-Feb 3-Jan Change Source North Hebei 4,6-4,7 4,6-4,7 North China, Inner Mongolia, Northwest China Central and South Hebei 4,-4,6 4,-4,6 North China, Inner Mongolia, Northwest China Central and West Shandong 4,7-4,8 4,7-4,8 Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Northwest China East Shandong 4,9-5, 4,9-5, Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Northwest China Central Shanxi 4,2-4,3 4,3-4,4-1 Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Northwest China North Jiangsu 5,1-5,3 5,3-5, -2 Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, Northwest China South Jiangsu 5,2-5,4 5,4-5,6-2 Import Shanghai 5,3-5,4 5,4-5, -1 Import North Zhejiang 5,2-5,4 5,4-5,6-2 Northwest China, Import Southeast Fujian 5,3-5,4 5,3-5,4-2 Import Central Anhui 5,4-5, 5,-5,6-1 Anhui, Import North Jiangxi 5,4-5,6 5,-5,7-1 Northwest China, Import Central Henan 4,6-5, 4,8-5,3-1 Henan, North China, Northwest China East Hubei 5,2-5,3 5,4-5, -2 Northwest China, Shanxi Changzhutan 5,4-5, 5,-5,6-1 Northwest China, Shanxi Harbin 5,4-5,6 5,4-5,6 Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia Changchun 5,4-5, 5,4-5, -1 Jilin, Inner Mongolia Shenyang 5,-5,6 5,-5,6-1 Jilin, Inner Mongolia Pearl River Delta 4,9-5, 5,2-5,3-3 Import East Guangdong 5,2-5,3 5,3-5, -1 Northwest China, Inner Mongolia Guangxi 5,3-5,4 5,-5,7-2 Sichuan, Chongqing, shaanxi Central Yunnan 5,-5,6 5,6-5,7-1 Sichuan, Chongqing Central Guizhou 5,2-5,4 5,2-5,4 Sichuan, Chongqing China LNG Receiving Station Price, 215 Receiving Station 5-Feb 3-Jan Change Gasifying Rate (m 3 /mt) Shenzhen Dapeng 5,9 5,29-2 1,352 (Qatar) 1,315 (Australia) Zhuhai Jinwan 4,96 5,26-3 1,395 Jovodg 4,98 5,28-3 1,3 (Indonesia) Fujian Putian 5, 5,2-2 1,44 Zhejiang Ningbo 5,6 5,36-3 1,413 Jiangsu Rudong 5, 5,6-6 1,418 JYD China LNG Market Weekly Report Director Yang Li yangli@315.com.cn Editorial director Li Fenglian lifenglian@315.com.cn Chief Editor Liangjin liangjin@315.com.cn Amanda Zhao zhaolei@315.com.cn Editor Melinda Zhang zhangcuiping@315.com.cn Zhu Yingxin zhuyingxin@315.com.cn Yan Limin yanlimin@315.com.cn Chen Guohua chenguohua@315.com.cn Zhang Huifen zhanghuifen@315.com.cn JYD Information Co., Ltd is recognized as the leading information provider in China. We specialized in providing the transparent, high-value, authoritative market intelligence and professional analysis in commodity market. Our expertise covers oil, gas, coal, chemical, plastic, rubber, fertilizer and metal industry, etc. China LNG Market Weekly Report is published by JYD Information Co., Ltd. every week on China LNG import statistics and shipment, production, transportation, inventory, price and projection.. The report provides full-scale & concise insight into China LNG market. Among gas products, besides weekly report on LNG, JYD publishes monthly report, import & export analysis report, as well as weekly, monthly, semi-annual and annual reports on LPG and dimethyl ether and semi-monthly report on feedgas. All rights reserved. No portion of this publication may be photocopied, reproduced, retransmitted, put into a computer system or otherwise redistributed without prior authorization from JYD Information Co., Ltd. P-6

7 China LNG Producing Status Forecast, January 3-February 5, 215 Place Volume ('m 3 ) Change (%) Price Change Forecast Northwest China 77, ,6-3,8-2 Next Week, LNG price may decline by CNY2-3/mt due to price falling in imported LNG. Inner Mongolia 26, ,6-3,8 Production halt in Xingxing LNG Plant and maintenance in ChinaCoal will surely reduce the operation rate of the region, Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi 1,78 4,8-4,9 but thin trading will still prevail as downstream demand decreases. LNG price will fluctuate at a low level. Northeast China 8,7 4,7-5, - East China 98 4,7-5, -1 Yangtze River Area 3, 4,2-4, -1 Shandong 2,1 4,-4,6-2 Southwest China 14,76 4,-5,3-25 News & Commentary Demand for clean energy remains strong in Asia Pacific According to the latest analysis from Frost & Sullivan, demand for clean energy looks set to remain strong in Asia Pacific for 215, despite volatile oil prices. Renewable energy, rationalisation of fuel subsidies and changing economic policies are set to impact various industries as they look to transform and keep their business relevant amidst the backdrop of volatile oil prices. Oil With no impending change in Saudi Arabia's energy policy, the oil price could temporarily hit low US$4 levels, or even lower for a brief period in 215. The majority of the world economies will stand to benefit from low oil prices, thus stimulating economic growth to take the supply glut off the market. The demand for oil is projected to increase by 1 million bbls daily in , with China being one of the key demand drivers. However, the declining oil prices could have a negative, long-term impact on selected industries and countries. "If oil prices stay below US$75/bbl over a longer period Asian LNG spot prices drop below British levels Asian spot gas prices have fallen below British wholesale levels for the first time since May 21. "A combination of weak winter gas demand across key importing Asian countries, additional global production and lower oil prices have hit market sentiment with spot prices falling fast," explained Ed Cox. East Asian spot prices have traded at a large premium to Europe in recent winters amid high weather-driven demand, nuclear outages in Japan and higher oil prices. Oil prices directly determine the price of a majority of long-term LNG contracts in East Asia. LNG plants will focus on reducing inventory by offering discounts, normal production will remain and EXW price may go down further. Stable output will maintain and Tianli and Huafeng will reduce their supply. Low prices provided by LNG stations will promote good sales. Zhongyuan Lvneng will focus on sale of inventory due to current maintenance. LNG from Northwest China will continue to dip and drag down local LNG prices. LNG market will be stable and filled with wait-and-see sentiment, considering recent stable supply and sales, despite price declining. Next week, LNG output and prices may stay unchanged. As the Spring Festival draws near, some LNG plants may continue to cut down their prices slightly to further inventory. (more than 2 years), then more than a quarter of the planned deep water projects in the region will not be viable. In addition, depending on the amount of crude oil stored, refiners will have high inventory value loss in the short term," explained Ravi Krishnaswamy, VP, Energy & Environment Practice, Frost & Sullivan Asia Pacific. LNG The impact of lower oil prices will also lead to lower LNG prices in the near future although its usage will be partially challenged by the revival of nuclear energy and strong interest in coal due to uncertainties in overall oil and gas investments. Japanese landed LNG prices will see the sharpest decline, to nearly US$12/million Btu by 22, if the current trend continues. The lower LNG price is likely to stimulate demand for LNGbased power projects. China has the opportunity to capitalise on low LNG prices to clean up the environment and shift to gas based power generation in a big way. However, the downside of low gas price is the likely delay or cancellation of some LNG production projects in Australia and East Africa, which may not be viable without a significant cost reduction. British front-month gas prices are currently approximately 3% cheaper than at this time last year. British demand has been lower than usual over the winter because of mild weather and lower consumption from the fuel generation sector. British gas demand stood at just over 79 billion m3 in 214, down from over 85 billion m3 in 213. LNG imports accounted for approximately 25% of UK gas supply between October 214 and February 215. The UK sources most of its gas from domestic production and imports from Norway. P-7