The sun, climate change and the expansion of the Scythians after 850 BC Bas van Geel

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1 The sun, climate change and the expansion of the Scythians after 850 BC Bas van Geel Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics (IBED), Research Group Paleoecology and Landscape Ecology, Faculty of Science, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Kruislaan 318, 1098 SM Amsterdam, The Netherlands

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25 14 C-dates of the Terp -phase of West-Friesland wood and charcoal from ditches, pits and wells 2760 ±35 BP 2745 ±30 BP 2745 ±30 BP 2740±40 BP 2710±35 BP 2690±25 BP 2685±30 BP 2650±30 BP 2620±20 BP This phase represents ca C- years, but probably only ca 60 calendar years. This is the period of a fast increase of delta 14 C, and also the period of the start of the Younger Sphagnum Peat. (S. imbricatum: oceanic conditions)

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53 Acknowledgements: Bas van Geel and other members of the research team got financial support from: - The Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO ; ALW ). - INTAS (project ), - EU 5th Framework Programme, Energy and Environment (ACCROTELM project; EVK ). Illustrations used in the powerpoint presentation: 2: Blytt-Sernander scheme from Birks and Birks, : Map of southern Norway (van Geel, 2004), based on an map by Blytt (1882). 4 and 22: Raised bog profile in Bargerveen area (northwest Netherlands; photo B. van Geel). The arrow in 4 points to the Subboreal-Subatlantic transition. 5: From Landwehr, 1984.

54 6 and 7: Details of leaves of Sphagnum cuspidatum and Sphagnum imbricatum (photo B. van Geel). 8: Selection of macrofossil data from raised bog profile Engbertsdijksveen-I (van Geel, 1978). 11: Radiocarbon calibration curve (Stuiver et al., 1998). 12: From De Jong et al., : From van Geel et al., , 20 and 46: from van Geel and Renssen, and 25: after van Geel et al., : Aerial photograph showing soil marks from Bronze Age settlement in West-Friesland, The Netherlands (photo W.H. Metz, IPP, UvA). 26: Ruinen-Wommels pottery type (photo BAI, RuG). 27: Migrations in the northern Netherlands at the Subboreal- Subatlantic transition (from Waterbolk, 1966). 28: Cartoon showing development of landscape in northern Netherlands (after van Geel et al., 1998).

55 29: Gaillard and Berglund (1988). For reference and paleoclimatological interpretation see van Geel et al., : Excavated wooden trackway in Ireland (Raftery, 1990). 31: From Raftery (1990). 32: From Raftery (1990) with relevant part of 14C calibration curve and delta 14C added by Bas van Geel. 33: Bog oak from Diemen, The Netherlands (photo B. van Geel). 34: Dutch bog oak record and delta 14C (van Geel, Jansma and van der Plicht, in prep). 35: After Speranza et al. (2002). 36: Abstracts by Kroonenberg et al., and Gracheva (for references see van Geel et al., 2004). 37 and 38: from Grunert et al., 2000 (for reference see van Geel et al., 2004). 39 and 40: Excavation scythian burial mount Arzhan-2, Tuva (photo H. Hooghiemstra). 41: Scythian kurgan 5 from Pazaryk, after Rudenko.

56 43: White Lake near Arzhan-2 in Tuva (photo H. Hooghiemstra). 44: Pollen diagram Kutuzhekovo Lake (for interpretation see van Geel et al., 2004). 45: Radiocarbon dates from archaeological sites in Khakassia and Tuva (see van Geel et al., 2004). 48 and 49: See van Geel et al. (1998). 50, 51 and 52: see Magny (1993a,b). REFERENCES: Birks, H.J.B. and Birks, H.H., Quaternary Palaeoecology. Edward Arnold, London Blaauw, M., Heuvelink, G.B.M., Mauquoy, D., van der Plicht, J. and van Geel, B., A numerical approach to 14C wiggle-match dating of organic deposits: best fits and confidence intervals. Quaternary Science Reviews 22:

57 Blaauw, M., van Geel, B. and van der Plicht, J., Solar forcing of climate change during the mid-holocene: indications from raised bogs in The Netherlands. The Holocene 14: Blaauw, M., van Geel, B., Mauquoy, D. and van der Plicht, J., Carbon-14 wiggle-match dating of peat deposits: advantages and limitations. Journal of Quaternary Science 19: Blytt, A., Die Theorie der wechselnden kontinentalen und insularen Klimate. Botanische Jahrbücher für Systematik, Pflanzengeschichte und Pflanzengeographie 2: De Jong, A.F.M. et al., Confirmation of the Suess wiggles: BC, Nature 280: Dergachev, V.A., Raspopov, O.M., van Geel, B. and Zaitseva, G.I., The Sterno-Etrussia geomagnetic excursion around 2700 BP and changes of solar activity, cosmic ray intensity, and climate. Radiocarbon 46:

58 Dirksen, V.G. and van Geel, B., Mid to Late Holocene climate change and its influence on cultural development in south central Siberia. In: E.M. Scott, A.Yu. Alekseev and G. Zaitseva (eds) Impact of the environment on human migration in Eurasia. NATO Science Series, IV. Earth and Environmental Sciences 42: Kilian, M.R., van der Plicht, J. and van Geel, B., Dating raised bogs: new aspects of AMS 14 C wiggle matching, a reservoir effect and climatic change. Quaternary Science Reviews 14: Landwehr J., Nieuwe Atlas Nederlandse Bladmossen. Stichting Uitgeverij Koninklijke Nederlandse Natuurhistorische Vereniging en Thieme, Zutphen, 568 pp, 474 pl. Magny, M., 1993a. Solar influences on Holocene climatic changes illustrated by correlations between past lake-level fluctuations and the atmospheric 14C record. Quaternary Research 40: 1-9.

59 Magny, M., 1993b. Un cadre climatique pour les habitats lacustres préhistoriques? Compte Rendu de l'académie des Sciences Paris 316: (Série II): Mauquoy, D., van Geel, B., Blaauw, M. and van der Plicht, J., Evidence from northwest European bogs shows Little Ice Age climatic changes driven by variations in solar activity. The Holocene 12: 1-6. Mauquoy, D., van Geel, B., Blaauw, M., Speranza, A. and van der Plicht, J., Changes in solar activity and Holocene climate shifts derived from 14 C wiggle-match dated peat deposits. The Holocene 14: Raftery, B., Trackways Through Time. Headline Publishing, Dublin. ISBN: Renssen, H., van Geel, B., van der Plicht, J. and Magny, M., Reduced solar activity as a trigger for the start of the Younger Dryas? Quaternary International 68-71:

60 Speranza, A., van der Plicht, J. and van Geel, B Improving the time control of the Subboreal/Subatlantic transition in a Czech peat sequence by 14C wiggle-matching. Quaternary Science Reviews 19: Speranza, A., van Geel, B. and van der Plicht, J., Evidence for solar forcing of climate change at ca. 850 cal BC from a Czech peat sequence. Global and Planetary Change 35: Stuiver, M. et al., 1998, INTCAL98 radiocarbon age calibration, 24,000-0 cal BP. Radiocarbon 40: van der Plicht, J., van Geel, B., Bohncke, S.J.P., Bos, J.A.A., Blaauw, M., Speranza, A.O.M., Muscheler, R. and Björck, S., Early Holocene solar forcing of climate change in Europe. Journal of Quaternary Science 19: van Geel, B., A palaeoecological study of Holocene peat bog sections in Germany and the Netherlands. Rev. Palaeobot. Palynol., 25:

61 van Geel, B., Zijn wij schuldig aan klimaatverandering of is het de zon? GEA 37 (4): van Geel, B. and Mook, W.G., High-resolution 14 C dating of organic deposits using natural atmospheric 14 C variations. Radiocarbon 31: van Geel, B., Buurman, J. and Waterbolk, H.T., Archaeological and palaeoecological indications for an abrupt climate change in The Netherlands and evidence for climatological teleconnections around 2650 BP. Journal of Quaternary Science 11: van Geel, B., van der Plicht, J., Kilian, M.R., Klaver, E.R., Kouwenberg, J.H.M., Renssen, H., Reynaud-Farrera, I. and Waterbolk, H.T., The sharp rise of 14 C ca. 800 cal BC: possible causes, related climatic teleconnections and the impact on human environments. Radiocarbon 40:

62 van Geel, B. and Renssen, H., Abrupt climate change around 2,650 BP in North-West Europe: evidence for climatic teleconnections and a tentative explanation. In: Water, Environment and Society in Times of Climatic Change, Eds. Issar, A.S. and Brown, N., Kluwer, Dordrecht, p van Geel, B., Raspopov, O.M., van der Plicht, J. and Renssen, H., Solar forcing of abrupt climate change around 850 calendar years BC. In: Natural catastrophes during Bronze Age civilisations. Eds: B.J. Peiser, T. Palmer and M.E. Bailey. BAR International Series 728: van Geel, B., van der Plicht, J. and Renssen, H., Comment on "A large California flood and correlative global climatic events 400 years ago" (Schimmelmann et al., 1998). Quaternary Research 51:

63 van Geel, B., Raspopov, O.M., Renssen, H., van der Plicht, J., Dergachev, V.A. and Meijer, H.A.J., The role of solar forcing upon climate change. Quaternary Science Reviews 18: van Geel, B., Heusser, C.J., Renssen, H. and Schuurmans, C.J.E., Climatic change in Chile at around 2700 BP and global evidence for solar forcing: a hypothesis. The Holocene 10: van Geel, B. and Berglund, B.E., A causal link between a climatic deterioration around 850 cal BC and a subsequent rise in human population density in NW-Europe?, Terra Nostra 2000/7: van Geel, B., Renssen, H. and van der Plicht,J., Evidence from the past: solar forcing of climate change by way of cosmic rays and/or by solar UV? Proceedings Workshop on Ion-Aerosol-Cloud Interactions, Geneva, ed. J. Kirkby, CERN :

64 van Geel, B. et Magny, M., Mise en évidence d'un forçage solaire du climat à partir de données paléoécologiques et archéologiques: la transition Subboréal-Subatlantique. In H. Richard et A. Vignot (dir.): Équilibres et ruptures dans les écosystèmes durant les 20 derniers millénaires en Europe de l'ouest; Actes du colloque international de Besançon, septembre Annales Littéraires 730 (3): van Geel, B., van der Plicht, J. and Renssen, H., Major 14 C excursions during the late glacial and early Holocene: changes in ocean ventilation or solar forcing of climate change? Quaternary International 105: van Geel, B., Shinde, V. and Yasuda, Y., Solar forcing of climate change and a monsoon-related cultural shift in western India around 800 cal. yrs. BC. Chapter 17 in: Y. Yasuda and V. Shinde (eds) Monsoon and Civilization. Roli Books, New Delhi, p

65 van Geel, B., Bokovenko, N.A., Burova, N.D., Chugunov, K.V., Dergachev, V.A., Dirksen, V.G., Kulkova, M., Nagler, A., Parzinger, H., van der Plicht, J. Vasiliev, S.S., Zaitseva, G.I The sun, climate change and the expansion of the Scythian culture after 850 BC. In: E.M. Scott, A.Yu. Alekseev and G. Zaitseva (eds) Impact of the environment on human migration in Eurasia. NATO Science Series, IV. Earth and Environmental Sciences 42: van Geel, B., Bokovenko, N.A., Burova, N.D., Chugunov, K.V., Dergachev, V.A., Dirksen, V.G., Kulkova, M., Nagler, A., Parzinger, H., van der Plicht, J. Vasiliev, S.S., Zaitseva, G.I., Climate change and the expansion of the Scythian culture after 850 BC, a hypothesis. Journal of Archaeological Science 31: Waterbolk, H.T., The occupation of Friesland in the prehistoric period. Berichten van de Rijksdienst voor het Oudheidkundig Bodemonderzoek 15/16:

66 Wille, M., Hooghiemstra, H., van Geel, B., Behling, H., de Jong, A., van der Borg, K., Submillennium-scale migrations of the rainforest-savanna boundary in Colombia: 14C wiggle-matching and pollen analysis of core Las Margaritas. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 193: Zaitseva, G.I. and van Geel, B., The occupation history of the southern Eurasia steppe during the Holocene: chronology, the calibration curve and methodological problems of the Scythian chronology. In: E.M. Scott, A.Yu. Alekseev and G. Zaitseva (eds) Impact of the environment on human migration in Eurasia. NATO Science Series, IV. Earth and Environmental Sciences 42: