Aerospace Supply Chain & Raw Material Outlook

Transcription

1 Aerospace Supply Chain & Raw Material Outlook Presented by: Peter C. Zimm Principal 1

2 Agenda Aerospace Demand Outlook Aerospace Supply Chain Trends 2

3 AEROSPACE DEMAND OUTLOOK Total aircraft production in 2014 is 4,972 units; air transport aircraft account for 62% of value Military RW 15% Military 9% 2014 Aircraft Production By Market Air Transport 33% Military 11% Military RW 11% Civil RW 3% By Units 4,972 By Value $171B Civil RW 21% BGA 13% Air Transport 62% BGA 22% Source: ICF analysis 3

4 AEROSPACE DEMAND OUTLOOK Annual production value is expected to reach more than $200B, with unit production eclipsing 6,000 aircraft by 2024 Aircraft Production By Market Segment # Aircraft 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 Type, CAGR Military, (0.9%) Military RW, 0.4% Civil RW, 0.7% $B USD* $250 $200 $150 Type, CAGR Civil RW, 1.2% Military RW, 0.7% Military, 0.3% 3,000 2,000 1, BGA, 4.9% Air Transport, 2.7% Total CAGR = 2.2% $100 $50 $ BGA, 4.8% Air Transport, 2.4% Total CAGR = 2.3% Source: ICF analysis * Constant 2014 US$ 4

5 AEROSPACE DEMAND OUTLOOK Aggregate aerospace raw material demand is 1.55B pounds Titanium Alloys 11% Steel Alloys 22% 2014 Aircraft Raw Material Demand By Material Type (buy weight) Super Alloys 9% Other 6% Composites 4% Total 1.55 B lbs Aggregate Buy to fly ratio is ~ 6 Aluminum Alloys 48% Aluminum alloys are nearly half of all total demand Steel alloys & titanium also are large driver of demand due to their high buy to fly ratios Composites are relatively small part of total demand at just 4% due to their lightness of weight and their relatively low buy to fly ratio Source: ICF analysis 5

6 AEROSPACE DEMAND OUTLOOK Boeing and Airbus aircraft account for nearly 70% of raw material demand 2014 Aircraft Raw Material Demand By OEM (buy weight) Embraer 2% Rolls-Royce 3% CFM 3% Bombardier 4% General Electric 5% Pratt & Whitney 2% Other 15% Total 1.55 B lbs Boeing 36% Boeing and Airbus aircraft models comprise 67% of demand GE is the next largest consumer 7% when including its share of CFM Airbus 30% Source: ICF Analysis 6

7 AEROSPACE DEMAND OUTLOOK The total aerospace raw material market is worth about $12 billion Super Alloys 15% Composites 19% 2014 Aircraft Raw Material Value By Material Type Steel Alloys 10% Total $11.9B Other 3% Titanium Alloys 27% Aluminum Alloys 26% Aluminum and titanium are the largest material markets by value both are worth just over $3B With 787 production ramping up, and A350 long-lead items under production, composites are the third largest category at $2.3B The value of superalloys is $1.8B, driven by aeroengine production Source: ICF analysis 7

8 AEROSPACE DEMAND OUTLOOK Over the next decade, composites and titanium will grow significantly while aluminum demand will remain solid Aerospace Raw Material Demand By Material (buy weight) Million Lbs 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 Type, CAGR Other, 1.0% Composites, 4.9% Overall raw material demand growth will be lower than aircraft unit growth due to lower buy-to-fly ratios and greater use of composites 1, Super Alloys, 1.2% Titanium Alloys, 3.6% Steel Alloys, 0.1% Composites and titanium will be the fastest growing material categories Aluminum Alloys, (0.5%) Total CAGR = 1.1% Aluminum demand will be relatively flat Source: ICF analysis 8

9 Agenda Aerospace Demand Outlook Aerospace Supply Chain Trends 9

10 SUPPLY CHAIN TRENDS There are several important aerospace trends that are shaping aerospace supply chains Additive Manufacturing Right Shoring Growing capital market interest OEM Vertical Integration Key Aerospace Supply Chain Trends OEMs Push For Cost Reduction Supply Chain Transparency & Control Advanced Aeroengines Source: ICF 10

11 SUPPLY CHAIN TRENDS COST REDUCTION OEMs are utilizing a variety of cost reduction initiatives New commercial terms Initiative Activity Unilateral price reductions and revised terms No fly lists for suppliers that don t participate Part redesigns Value engineering Material substitution New processes Shift to lower cost process Leverage new processes Capture revert Where possible, capture revert from suppliers Work with supply chain integrators to close loop on material Source: ICF analysis 11

12 SUPPLY CHAIN TRENDS COST REDUCTION and cost reduction will be important as aircraft OEMs target double-digit profitability Major aircraft OEMs are driving for double-digit profitability One initiative is to secure concessions from suppliers to ensure access to future programs OEMs are also expanding their influence and role in the aftermarket The implication is downward margin pressure on suppliers Source: ICF analysis, Wall Street Journal 12

13 SUPPLY CHAIN TRENDS ADVANCED AEROENGINES The push to deploy advanced technology underpins recent re-engining decisions more are likely G2 E-jet 777-X In January 2013 Embraer selected Pratt s GTF for is G2 E-Jets Boeing announced the B777-X with GE9X aeroengines in November 2013 Airbus announced the A330neo with the Trent 7000 at Farnborough 2014 for 2018EIS A330 neo A future re-engining possibility includes the A380 Every 25 years a big moonshot... that s the wrong way to pursue this business. The more-forless world will not let you pursue moonshots. Photo credits: Embraer, Boeing, Airbus Jim McNerny CEO, Boeing 13

14 SUPPLY CHAIN TRENDS - ADVANCED AEROENGINES however aeroengine material trends are encroaching on titanium s sweet spot in aeroengines CFM LEAP-X Winning Materials Composites Powder Metals Advanced super alloys Titanium Aluminide Composite fan and fan cases increasingly popular Titanium s sweet spot in aeroengines Nickel alloy moving forward in the High Pressure Compressor module Source: CFM, ICF analysis 14

15 SUPPLY CHAIN TRENDS - SUPPLY CHAIN TRANSPARENCY AND CONTROL Supply chain transparency and control is growing in importance Customers (driven by OEMs) demanding increased visibility into supply chain This contributes to the use of latest technology (physical control centers and software) for 'early alerts' There is also growing use of data analytics Sub-tier suppliers are being asked to provide utilization and ramp-up plans 15

16 SUPPLY CHAIN TRENDS ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING Additive manufacturing represents a potential step-change in cost and part design capability Traditional Subtractive Manufacturing Additive Manufacturing Additive manufacturing (AM) builds up parts with material deposition, rather than removing material through machining There are many types of additive manufacturing processes and little industry standardization Sources: ICF analysis 16

17 SUPPLY CHAIN TRENDS ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING Several OEMs are trialing additive manufacturing on a range of production and aftermarket parts Examples of Additive Manufacturing Adoption GKN is using AM on aerostructures for Falcon 5X Driver is cost reduction Boeing is currently using AM for polymer ducting on F-18 & 787 Part consolidation & cost driver GE using AM for Leap-X fuel nozzles in Parker Aerospace JV Performance is main driver of adoption Source: ICF analysis, GKN, GE Aviation, Airbus, Boeing 17

18 SUPPLY CHAIN TRENDS ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING In addition to adoption on certain parts, OEMs and suppliers are announcing substantial investments in AM RTI Acquires Directed Manufacturing GE Expands Auburn AL Carpenter Powder Facility in Athens, AL Jan 2014 RTI acquired Direct Manufacturing for $23M to enhance production capabilities in medical devices and aerospace Makes full rate production parts for UAVs Announced July 2014 GE will expand Auburn facility starting in late machines in 2015 with capability for 50 Will handle full rate production of all AM parts, including Leap fuel nozzles Announced Oct 2013 Facility will be located adjacent to current mill facility in Athens Will produce superalloy powders for isothermal forging and additive manufacturing Source: RTI, GE, Carpenter Technology, ICF analysis 18

19 SUPPLY CHAIN TRENDS - ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING A long term trend to watch is the penetration of additive manufacturing and its impact on buy-to-fly ratios Ti Wing Beam Concept (China Northwest Polytechnical Univ. The industry aggregate buy-to-fly ratio based on subtractive manufacturing is ~6:1; for some parts it is >15:1 In contrast, the buy to fly ratio for additive manufacturing is very low Early application of AM will be in unmanned systems, experimental aircraft, space, and military sustainment In the long term, AM will impact mainstream aerospace production and raw material demand Sources: RapidReady, China Northwest Polytechnical University 19

20 WILDCARD TITANIUM SUPPLY RESTRICTIONS A Wildcard to watch: political crises with Russia and Ukraine could drastically impact aerospace supply chains 2014 Aerospace Titanium Market Japanese Suppliers 10% Others 5% VSMPO 30% Over 30% of aerospace titanium is supplied by VSMPO RTI 10% Total 169M lbs Ukraine is a key supplier of nearly all titanium concentrates to VSMPO Timet 22% ATI 23% Some OEMs are stockpiling titanium as a contingency Source: ICF analysis, Wall Street Journal 20

21 Thanks and Questions Peter C. ZImm Principal Aerospace & MRO

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