Commercial Jet Aircraft-Market Outlook

Transcription

1 Introduction Air transportation is a vital component in our growing economy for the movement of people and goods. From safety point of view, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) predicts an increase in air traffic by a factor of three in the next twenty years, and the present rate of less than two accidents per million flights will become unacceptable. Hence, it is imperative to maintain high aircraft health quality to ensure lower incidences during their operations. Aircraft health monitoring system as a concept stems from challenges to enhance flight safety and at the same time reduce operational and maintenance costs. A system that enables automatic detection, diagnosis, prognosis and mitigation of adverse events arising from component failures is conceptualized in an integrated Aircraft Health Management System (AHMS). The current practice of scheduled maintenance increases the cost of maintenance steeply, especially in the case of an aircraft operating beyond its designed service life. So a need exists to adopt condition based maintenance (CBM) which is possible only with an effective health monitoring system. CBM enables increased asset availability and hence a higher return on investment while ensuring safety.

2 Commercial Jet Aircraft-Market Outlook According to Jet Information Services, there are approximately 21,500 commercial jet aircraft and 43,000 jet engines in service around the world in These aircrafts take approximately 3 departures per day, for a total of 23 million departures annually. Each jet engine contains many moving parts; however, there are three major pieces of rotating equipment: a turbo fan, compressor, and turbine. Each of these components is instrumented and monitored separately. In total, there are approximately 129,000 major pieces of spinning equipment operating in the commercial fleet today. The bottom line is that the opportunities for instrumentation of jet airline fleets are vast and increasing daily. Over the last few decades, the global commercial airline industry has grown 2-3 times faster than the global economy, expanding generally at the same pace as world trade. Today, the global commercial airline revenues are around $700 billion per year. However, profitability and return on capital invested remain significant challenges for the industry. These challenges highlight the focus on fuel costs which account for nearly 30 percent of industry costs, and the potential benefits of improving asset utilization. In the US, the Federal aviation Administration (FAA) conducted a study that showed that over an 8-year period, flight inefficiencies boosted costs by an average of 8-22 percent. The global commercial airline business is spending about $170 billion per year on jet fuel. Estimates within the industry point to perhaps 5 percent cost reduction from better flight planning and operational changes: a benefit of over $8.0 billion per year. If Industrial Internet technologies can achieve only one percent in cost reduction, this would represent nearly $2 billion per year or about $30 billion in fuel cost savings over 15 years. Another potential benefit comes from avoided capital costs. From 2002 to 2009 the commercial aviation industry spent almost $1.0 trillion dollars or $135 billion per year.if better utilization of existing assets from the Industrial Internet results in a one percent reduction in capital expenditures, the savings benefit could total $1.3 billion dollars per year or a cumulative benefit of approximately $29 billion dollars over 15 years. From an operations perspective, the average cost of maintenance per flight hour for a two engine wide-body commercial jet is approximately $1,200.In 2011, commercial jet airplanes were in the air for 50 million hours. This translates into a $60 billion annual maintenance bill. Engine maintenance alone accounts for 43 percent of the total, or $25 billion. This means that commercial jet engine maintenance costs can be reduced by $250 million for every one percent improvement in engine maintenance efficiency due to the Industrial Internet. Intelligent Airline Operations: The objective of AHMS is to leverage an aircraft s data within the context of the operations so one can address a situation before it occurs. Technology continuously analyses data from multiple sensors on aircraft components and systems, and warns of imminent problems. Operational delays and cancellations cost airlines and cargo carriers billions of dollars each year. These unscheduled or unpredicted events negatively impact profitability, performance, and customer experience. Software programs today can turn unscheduled maintenance into scheduled maintenance, identify potential operational disruptions before they occur, and recover from unavoidable delays. These leverage predictive analytics technology to analyze data from tip to tail on multiple aircraft parts, components and systems, and make recommendations to

3 optimize aircraft maintenance and flight operations. The expected benefits include a reduction of unscheduled maintenance, fewer delays and cancellations, increased aircraft availability, enhanced on-time performance, and increased maintenance efficiency, reduction in maintenance costs and reduction in lost revenue costs. In short a decision support to plan for and solve disruptions in real-time. These programs can also reduce the requirement to store expensive spare parts, which are typically stocked in case of failure. A recent study by a leading aircraft engine OEM estimated that the Industrial Internet, a system connecting people, machines and data, could save airlines more than $30 billion over the next 15 years if it increased fuel savings and improved maintenance by just 1 percent. There were approximately 21,500 commercial jet aircraft and 43,000 jet engines in service around the world in 2011, making 23 million departures annually. Engine maintenance alone accounts for 43 percent of the total $60 billion annual maintenance bill. But consider that each jet engine contains moving parts such as the turbo fan, compressor and turbine that can be equipped with sensors and monitored separately to improve efficiency and maintenance. Industrial Internet The Industrial Internet is a term coined by the leading aircraft engine OEM and they refer it to the integration of complex physical machinery with networked sensors and software. The industrial Internet draws together fields such as machine learning, big data, the Internet of things and machine-to-machine communication to ingest data from machines, analyze it (often in real-time), and use it to adjust operations. It is taking place through the convergence of the global industrial system with the power of advanced computing, analytics, low-cost sensing and new levels of connectivity permitted by the Internet. Together these developments bring together three elements, which embody the essence of the Industrial Internet: The Industrial Internet starts with embedding sensors and other advanced instrumentation in an array of machines from the simple to the highly complex ones. This allows the collection and analysis of an enormous amount of data which can be used to improve performance, and inevitably the efficiency of the systems and networks that link them. Even the data itself can become intelligent, instantly knowing which users it needs to reach. Today s AHMS has evolved over period of decades of evolution in the aircraft health maintenance systems. From an offline data dump to reactive maintenance model, today, it has matured to a real time data sync and proactive management model.

4 *The remote monitoring of airplane data to understand its current or future serviceability and performance Intelligent Airline Operations: The objective of AHMS is to leverage an aircraft s data within the context of the operations so one can address a situation before it occurs. Technology continuously analyses data from multiple sensors on aircraft components and systems, and warns of imminent problems. Operational delays and cancellations cost airlines and cargo carriers billions of dollars each year. These unscheduled or unpredicted events negatively impact profitability, performance, and customer experience. Software programs today can turn unscheduled maintenance into scheduled maintenance, identify potential operational disruptions before they occur, and recover from unavoidable delays. These leverage predictive analytics technology to analyze data from tip to tail on multiple aircraft parts, components and systems, and make recommendations to optimize aircraft maintenance and flight operations. The expected benefits include a reduction of unscheduled maintenance, fewer delays and cancellations, increased aircraft availability, enhanced on-time performance, and increased maintenance efficiency, reduction in maintenance costs and reduction in lost revenue costs. In short, a decision support to plan for and solve disruptions in real-time. These programs can also reduce the requirement to store expensive spare parts, which are typically stocked in case of failure. A recent study by a leading aircraft engine OEM estimated that the Industrial Internet, a system connecting people, machines and data, could save airlines more than $30 billion over the next 15 years if it increased fuel savings and improved maintenance by just 1 percent. There were approximately 21,500 commercial jet aircraft and 43,000 jet engines in service around the world in 2011, making 23 million departures annually. Engine maintenance alone accounts for 43 percent of the total $60 billion annual maintenance bill. But consider that each jet engine contains moving parts such as the turbo fan, compressor and turbine that can be equipped with sensors and monitored separately to improve efficiency and maintenance.

5 Industrial Internet The Industrial Internet is a term coined by the leading aircraft engine OEM and they refer it to the integration of complex physical machinery with networked sensors and software. The industrial Internet draws together fields such as machine learning, big data, the Internet of things and machine-to-machine communication to ingest data from machines, analyze it (often in real-time), and use it to adjust operations. It is taking place through the convergence of the global industrial system with the power of advanced computing, analytics, low-cost sensing and new levels of connectivity permitted by the Internet. Together these developments bring together the elements, which embody the essence of the Industrial Internet. Case Studies Etihad Airways taps into the Industrial Internet, which is actually the Internet of Things but for machines and industrial equipment such as aircraft. They use complex algorithms to collect and analyze the vast amounts of data that are generated in real-time by the sensors nowadays present on every plane. Etihad Airways uses the tool from Taleris. This tool helps Etihad keep a real-time control over their entire fleet of Airbus and Boeing planes. The sensors help Etihad Airways to monitor the planes in real-time, also when in light, and manage and predict maintenance, spot problems before they happen, reduce fuel consumption and shorten turn-around-time at airports. This will save large amounts of money as the airplanes of Etihad Airways can spend more time in the air and less on the ground. Goal is to integrate the aircraft data in a broader environment with the rest of the airline IT. TE Connectivity (TE) previewed an emerging technology at the Paris Air Show this year, providing a first look at advanced load sensors (still in development) that will serve as part of a proactive warning system for aircraft structure and ancillary systems. As part of a government-funded research project and in cooperation with an aircraft manufacture and system supplier, TE Connectivity is developing new sensor solutions to monitor the structural health (e.g., loads, wear over lifetime) of aircraft components and help provide reliable sensor signals to support the operation of a structural health monitoring system. AHMS Aircraft Health Management System AHMS is the remote monitoring of airplane data to understand its current or future serviceability and performance. This is primarily a Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) item in an airline industry, and is an integral function of an aircraft manufacturer (OEM), airlines operator and MRO companies. Aircraft Health Monitoring is one of the few technologies that will help in reducing both maintenance and operational costs, while improving the overall safety of an aircraft. It also helps in moving away from conservative design philosophies. Hence, AHMS is increasingly being adopted in various aircraft programs. AHMS requires a multidisciplinary approach bringing together the best of mechanical engineering, sensor technologies, communication and data analytics. The aim of a Health Monitoring system is to detect and diagnose initiation of any defect to analyze its effects and to trigger maintenance workflows in order to maintain safety of the aircraft. This is done by capturing data by a network of sensors and analyzing the data using life prediction algorithms implemented on highly evolved software systems. Health monitoring systems are employed on both structures and systems. Structural health monitoring essentially looks after structural integrity by online monitoring of damage growth and assessing remaining usable life (RUL). System health monitoring looks after functional aspects and any degradation in performance triggering maintenance tasks or replacement of affected Line replacement units (LRU). In recent times AHMS systems have been developed that take care of both structural and systems health management in aircrafts. As an example, an Aircraft landing gear (LG) is one of the most critical systems in an aircraft which requires the maximum maintenance effort, next only to the propulsion system.

6 AHM broadly has three types of decision support available one may choose that is suitable for them. Real-Time Fault Management - With the airplane is still in route, in-flight faults are communicated to the ground and diagnosed, allowing you to make real-time operational decisions regarding maintenance and deploy the necessary people, parts, and equipment to mitigate the issue. Performance Monitoring- To support your airplane fuel efficiency initiatives and optimize your flight planning, AHM analyzes and trends airplane cruise performance data. This includes prioritized information regarding fuel efficiency, emission levels, and other performance factors. Custom Alerting and Analysis- Customer-specified monitoring and alerting of any data transmitted from the airplane to address developing airplane system issues. AHM automatically monitors, collects, and transmits service levels using ACARS through the installed Aircraft Condition Monitoring System (ACMS). This includes tire pressure, oxygen pressure, hydraulic fluid, APU, and engine oil levels. Consumption trends are tracked to facilitate maintenance planning, calculate optimal service intervals or provide supplemental information to your ETOPS program All three AHM decision support tools can interface with engine OEM health monitoring services to provide Engine Condition Monitoring Alerts by linking the Web-based systems and enabling your personnel to see engine-oemgenerated alerts alongside AHM-generated information. The communication systems onboard an aircraft and on ground are used extensively to implement the AHMS, as there are regular data exchanges required for this. Alerts and notifications are delivered to your personnel through the Internet, fax, PDAs, , and pager services. Teams across operations, access and process information through hosted tools/web portals. Teams receive customizable information packages based on their information needs, selected prioritization, and urgency. Make fix-or-fly and maintenance decisions with better information and in a fraction of the time with remote monitoring, collection of data, and analysis of information. Automated decision support increases efficiencies and performance across your enterprise. Data from onboard systems and engines is consistently captured in flight and transmitted in real time to the airline s ground operations. When any major or minor issue surfaces, the airline personnel receive alerts delivered through the Internet, , fax or pager services. Teams can then access and process the information with Aircraft OEM-hosted tools/applications, a secure Internet portal for airplane owners and operators. Airline teams receive comprehensive reports and information customized according to need, priority and urgency.

7 Airplane Health Management monitoring all aircrafts AHM information also goes to the Aircraft OEM Operations Control Centers, which are staffed 24/7 to support airline operations teams. When the centers receive data from the AHM system and other sources, Aircraft OEM responds quickly engaging suppliers, technical experts and engineering resources as needed to provide its airline customers with information, guidance and solutions. Aircraft OEM is also able to share knowledge gained on one airplane with every customer flying that airplane type by aggregating the data and continually updating maintenance manuals, providing quick links to maintenance tips and other service-related information provided by Aircraft OEM systems experts and engineers. Benefits are as follows: Trims the number of delays by sending data in real time from the air to the ground so that repair teams can begin work on a solution before the airplane lands Shortens delays by allowing airlines to begin solving problems sooner Provides enhanced first-time fix effectiveness Converts some maintenance tasks from unscheduled to scheduled Allows airlines to forecast and fix problems before they result in failure Enables optimal flight planning Increases fuel mileage At Tech Mahindra we are harnessing the power of the following service offerings to build solutions: M2M Communications Big Data Real Time Analytics Using Technology to enable decision making in real time Fuel and Carbon Analytics Development of Integrated Software Product for Enabling NDE based SHM, Condition based Maintenance and Logistics Data Scientists MRO Solutions based on analytics on Mobile Pads Digital Enterprise

8 The references for this article has been collected from uploads/2012/11/ge-industrial-internet-vision-paper.pdf and This paper has been collaboratively co-authored by Mallikarjun Vempati Principal Consultant Airlines Practice, Gautam Sarkar Principal Consultant Airlines Practice and Sahil Mahajan Consultant Airlines Practice. About Tech Mahindra Tech Mahindra represents the connected world, offering innovative and customer-centric information technology services and solutions, enabling Enterprises, Associates and the Society to Rise. We are a USD 2.9 billion company with 87,300+ professionals across 49 countries, helping over 605 global customers including Fortune 500 companies. Our Consulting, Enterprise and Telecom solutions, platforms and reusable assets connect across a number of technologies to derive tangible business value. We are part of the USD 16.7 billion Mahindra Group that employs more than 180,000 people in over 100 countries. The Group operates in the key industries that drive economic growth, enjoying a leadership position in tractors, utility vehicles, after-market, Information Technology and vacation ownership Connect with us at connect@techmahindra.com For any further information, please contact: vempati.mallikarjun@techmahindra.com / gautam.sarkar@techmahindra.com / sahil.mahajan@techmahindra.com