smart systems and internet of things forecast

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1 Report Prospectus Market analysis on how networks of companies, customers, people and intelligent devices are driving the convergence of The Internet of Things and The Internet of People smart systems and internet of things forecast Machine-to-machine (M2M) communications and the new world of Smart Systems are ushering in an era where people, machines, devices, sensors, and businesses are all connected and able to interact with one another. As these previously disaggregated parties come together, new modes of collaboration and intelligence will abound fostering a trend that we call Smart Business. M2M is merely the starting point. The development of Smart Systems and Services will enable a truly connected Smart World. Harbor Research

2 Prospectus Harbor Research 04 OVERVIEW and SUMMARY This section provides a brief synopsis of the next five years. It outlines the opportunities associated with the Internet of Things and key considerations and questions associated with developing new growth strategies. 35 MARKET FORECAST: TRENDS and FORCES The sheer size and scope of Smart Systems opportunity guarantees that the competitive, technical, customer, and socioeconomic forces impacting the space are complex and require in-depth examination. This section explores those forces and how they impact business model design. This section explores each of the nine venues in the Harbor Research Forecast Model. In this section the managed services revenue, installed base of devices, wireless network technologies, and key considerations for each of the segments are presented. 70 CHALLENGES and OPPORTUNITIES The final section of this report includes a capstone summary of various strategies and specific tactics that key leaders are currently exploring - designed to help our readers readily apply the information within this report to their unique circumstances. 2

3 Harbor Research Prospectus exhibits Figure 1.1 Aligning Network Technology and Applications 10 Figure 3.1 Smart Systems Forecast - Venue Map Figure 3.2 Aligning Network Technology and Applications 39 Figure 3.3 Underlying Segmentation 40 Figure 3.4 Total Smart Systems and Services ($M) 41 Figure 3.5 Total Managed Service Revenue by Geography 42 Figure 3.6 Network Enablement By Venue ($M) 43 Figure 3.7 Network Services Revenues By Venue ($M) 44 Figure 3.8 Total Network Enablement By Network Type ($M) 45 Figure 3.9 Total Network Services By Network Type ($M) 45 Figure 3.10 Total Managed Services By Venue ($M) 46 Figure 3.11 Total Managed Services By Service Type 47 Figure 3.12 Total Devices Shipped 2018 By Network Type 48 Figure 3.13 Total Devices Shipped 2018 By Network Type 48 Figure 3.14 Resources Venue Managed 49 Figure 3.15 Resources Venue Installed 50 Figure 3.16 Energy Venue Managed 51 Figure 3.17 Energy Venue Installed 52 Figure 3.18 Industrial Venue Managed 53 Figure 3.19 Industrial Venue Installed 54 Figure 3.20 Buildings Venue Managed 55 Figure 3.21 Buildings Venue Installed 56 Figure 3.22 Healthcare Venue Managed 57 Figure 3.23 Healthcare Venue Installed 58 Figure 3.24 Retail Venue Managed 59 Figure 3.25 Retail Venue Installed 60 Figure 3.26 Transportation Venue Managed 61 Figure 3.27 Transportation Venue Installed 62 Figure 3.28 Professional IT Venue Managed 63 Figure 3.29 Professional IT Venue Installed 64 Figure 3.30 Consumer IT Venue Managed 65 Figure 3.31 Consumer IT Venue Installed 66 3

4 Prospectus Harbor Research The intersection of Information and Communications Technology (ICT) and device connectivity creates value at two disparate ends of the business spectrum. New IT technologies like cloud computing are moving to the enterprise and rapidly being embraced. Managed IT services will increasingly dominate ICT systems and networked services development. Introduction At the other end of the spectrum, the rise of the machine-to-machine (M2M) and the Internet of Things has helped transform product companies into value-added service companies. Manufacturers are learning that by putting products on networks they are essentially placing themselves into continuous contact with their customers, thereby enabling them to better understand their customer s needs and act appropriately. The intersection of these two trends creates an opportunity for new differentiated business models by cleverly combining the potential of both. The two need to be interwoven and mutually supportive, and increasingly, success in either goes to the player that effectively utilizes the combined potential of both. A new generation of systems architecture (hardware, software, network technologies and managed services) that provide real-time awareness based on inputs from machines, people, video streams, maps, newsfeeds, sensors, and more that integrate people, processes, and knowledge to enable collective awareness and better decision making. Harbor Research believes there is substantially greater recognition of the technological capabilities and the potential benefits of connecting devices to the Internet today than at any other time. However, our analysis and, more importantly, our experience working with many diverse players in this arena points to the many challenges in realizing such growth, including: Challenges with developing an effective cross-industry technology reference architecture that will allow for true interoperability and ease of deployment. 4

5 Harbor Research Prospectus Smart Systems Complex services and solution delivery eco-systems that require supply-side players to relate in new and different ways Fragmented M2M and Smart Systems vendor landscape that is not yet well aligned with the larger IT infrastructure and network services players. Requirement for vertically focused solutions from a supply-side world that historically has been far more horizontally driven. Technology disruption causing shifts across value chains in where revenue and profits are realized. Challenges in adopting new business models and making the business case to support investments. Anticipation of new product, service and systems innovation modes that are not widely adopted today. When it comes to laying the groundwork for the future Internet of Things, we think most people assume that the technologists are taking care of it. They take it on faith that the best possible designs for the future of smart systems will emerge from large corporations or centralized authorities. But those are big, unfounded assumptions. In fact, most of these newly arrived IT and network services players are showing little appetite for radical departures from current practice. Yet current practices will not serve the needs of a genuinely connected world. When we say Smart Systems we are literally contemplating incorporating the Internet into physical things and infrastructure, making something like a smart building much easier to contemplate than ever before. The building itself is literally on the Internet and the Internet is in the very matter of the building. If this is such a good idea, why hasn t it been done before? 5 The answer is that most of the current IT and communications technology in this area is really a holdover from the early days of client server systems. All the new entrants are trying to drag yesterday s story to tomorrow s opportunity.

6 Prospectus Harbor Research The realization of pervasive smart systems will involve billions upon billions of protean network nodes that ultimately take on a life of their own. Our present-day conception of intelligent devices and global data networking does not allow for that. Until we change that situation, we will not achieve the emergent magic implied by the phrase the Internet of Things. Key Research and Analysis Questions So how will all this work? For all of this smart systems value to be realized the alignment of embedded systems technologies, intelligent device communications, network services and IT infrastructure and application services will all have to be re-thought. The knowledgeable players in this arena today and all the newcomers will have to commune and align themselves in ways that will change all the player s business models Our analysis and research is focused on understanding the strategic business implications of growth within the emerging Smart Systems arena. We are particularly interested in answering the following fundamental questions: What key forces are impacting adoption of Smart Systems, M2M and connected product solutions? What devices and applications are driving intelligent device networking? What is the size and growth rate of the opportunity? What impact will cloud computing technologies and related IT services delivery technology have on the smart systems and internet of things arena? What managed services opportunities are developing by vertical market? How will new data aggregation, integration and analytics technology impact customers and users; How fast will data analytics capabilities converge with real-time and state-based systems? 6

7 Harbor Research Prospectus Organization and Structure What are the evolving competitive dynamics in the Smart Systems arena? What ecosystem and go-to-market structures will emerge? What are the biggest unmet growth opportunities? What issues and hurdles are there in the market impacting adoption of Smart Services? Our forecast report examines the current state of intelligent device networking, a key element of what we term Smart Systems. We prefer Smart Systems over other terms in common use notably M2M, which usually stands for machine-to-machine because it captures the profound enormity of the phenomenon - something much greater in scope than just machine connectivity. Harbor s forecast provides comprehensive coverage of the intelligent device [smart device] networking and related smart services market. We have tracked and interviewed technology suppliers, product OEMs, service providers, industry experts and users to obtain a complete perspective on the marketplace. This report provides our analysis and forecast that includes all intelligently networked devices, covering both Fixed (Wireline) and Wireless technologies, including WWAN (cellular and satellite), WLAN and WPAN. Harbor segments the market into nine key venues as listed below. We analyze each venue and related customer segments, application groups and over 350 specific devices and machine types central to the evolving smart systems arena. Our venue scope and coverage includes: Resources: Mining equipment, pipelines, agricultural equipment and water/wastewater 7

8 Prospectus Harbor Research Energy: Traditional power generation stations as well as alternative generation (including wind and solar), as well as transmission and distribution systems that serve demand side energy needs. Organization and Structure Industrial: Automation, control equipment, and manufacturing capital equipment Transportation: Vehicles, Airplanes, & Transport Systems Buildings: HVAC/environmental systems, access control/security systems, transport systems, and lighting 8

9 Harbor Research Prospectus Organization and Structure Healthcare: Medical devices, telemedicine, care delivery technology, as well as lab equipment, such as centrifuges, incubators, freezers, and blood test equipment Retail: Point of Sale systems (POS), vending machines (food/beverages, cigarettes, etc.), service equipment (petrol pumps, washers/driers, refrigeration, car cleaning), entertainment, signage/display (billboards, displays), scanners and registers, kiosks, digital signage, lighting, and refrigeration systems Consumer IT: Infotainment technologies in the home, including PCs, tablets, storage devices, cameras, game players, and home office equipment Professional IT: Information and communication in the office including desktop PCs, tablets, netbooks, and traditional laptops as well as infrastructure related assets such as servers, storage devices, and communications equipment We further organize and segment opportunities into four key layers as follows: Enablement: the wireline or wireless module attached to or embedded in each machine to be connected. Network Services: the communication medium used to receive/send machine data including configuration and provisioning, network service charges, and support services. Managed Services: the value added services delivery for infrastructure as well as application services delivery. In this year s forecast model, we have added several new sub-segments within Managed Services: Mobile and Cloud Computing: different types of computing concepts that involve a large number of computers connected through a realtime communication network (typically the Internet) to manage 9

10 Prospectus Harbor Research data processing and mobile device services. Typically organized into Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), Platform as a Service (PaaS), and Software as a Service (SaaS). Methodology Data and Analytics: technologies utilized to provide integration of diverse data types (typically structured, unstructured and time series) as well as analytic tools, services and intelligence and visualization. Connectivity and Application Development Platforms: Software platforms and services for provisioning, certification and integration of devices as well as device and data management functions. Smart Services: including systems-level applications for monitoring, control, diagnostics, configuration management and related. Smart Services also includes Value Added Application Services, including asset management, energy management, supply chain, security and customer support. Methodology Overview Harbor combines a comprehensive approach to ensure the most accurate forecast possible. All levels within the forecast are linked. Figure 1.1 shows Harbor s forecast methodology. Device populations have been determined from government statistics on output and installed base across the wide range of devices monitored. Data for over 300 device categories in Harbor s eight key Venues have been researched in this way in order to cover all areas where Harbor sees potential M2M/PI opportunities. These numbers are cross-checked against data and analysis from alternative sources such as expert interviews, industry publications, academic analysis, market research reports, and other sources. Networking penetration of these device populations has been assessed from Harbor s own estimates, based on input received from device suppliers and industry comparisons across device segments. At the same time, device categories have also been assessed for the alternative technologies that might be used to network connect them. This approach seeks to minimize 10

11 Harbor Research Prospectus Methodology the potential for double counting of devices using different connection technologies. The results of these assessments have then been crosschecked against actual connection module shipment data received from module suppliers, device suppliers and some distributors. Enablement revenue is derived from a combination of the connection module shipments, their average selling price and the costs for Hardware, Software and Engineering. Network and Carrier Services Revenue is derived from the installed base of modules actually connected rather than those shipped and the Average Revenue Per Device (ARPD). In turn, ARPD has been determined each application as a percentage of Managed Services revenue applicable for each application. Managed Service Revenues are also derived from the installed base of connected modules, together with an average service monthly charge. ABOUT HARBOR RESEARCH Founded in 1984, Harbor Research Inc. has more than twenty five years of experience in providing strategic consulting and research services that enable our clients to understand and capitalize on emergent and disruptive opportunities. For inquiries please contact: Alex Glaser Business Development m aglaser@harborresearch.com 11