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1 To appear Annals of Applied Probability 2005Vol. 0, No. 0, 1 8 ON THE ERGODICITY PROPERTIES OF SOME ADAPTIVE MCMC ALGORITHMS By Christophe Andrieu, and Éric Moulines University of Bristol and École Nationale Supérieure des Télécommunications In this paper we study the ergodicity properties of some adaptive Monte Carlo Markov chain algorithms MCMC that have been recently proposed in the literature. We prove that under a set of verifiable conditions, ergodic averages calculated from the output of a so-called adaptive MCMC sampler converge to the required value and can even, under more stringent assumptions, satisfy a central limit theorem. We prove that the conditions required are satisfied for the Independent Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the Random Walk Metropolis algorithm with symmetric increments. Finally we propose an application of these results to the case where the proposal distribution of the Metropolis-Hastings update is a mixture of distributions from a curved exponential family. 1. Introduction. Markov chain Monte Carlo MCMC, introduced by Metropolis et al. 1953, is a popular computational method for generating samples from virtually any distribution π. In particular there is no need for the normalising constant to be known and the space R nx for some integer n x on which it is defined can be high dimensional. We will hereafter denote B the associated countably generated σ-field. The method consists of simulating an ergodic Markov chain { k, k 0} on with transition probability P such that π is a stationary distribution for this chain, i.e πp = π. Such samples can be used e.g. to compute integrals π f def = for some π-integrable function f : R, S n f = 1 n f x π dx, n f k. 1 In general the transition probability P of the Markov chain depends on some tuning parameter, say θ defined on some space Θ R n θ for some integer n θ, and the convergence properties of the Monte Carlo averages in Eq. 1 might highly depend on a proper choice for these parameters. The authors would like to thank the Royal Society/CNRS partnership and the Royal Society International Exchange visit program, An initial version of this work was presented at the First Cape Cod Monte Carlo Workshop, September AMS 2000 subject classifications: Primary 65C05, 65C40, 60J27, 60J35; secondary 93E35 Keywords and phrases: Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo, Self-tuning algorithm, Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, Stochastic approximation, State-dependent noise, Randomly varying truncation, Martingale, Poisson method 1

2 2 C. ANDRIEU & É. MOULINES We illustrate this here with the Metropolis-Hastings MH update, but it should be stressed at this point that the results presented in this paper apply to much more general settings including in particular hybrid samplers, sequential or population Monte Carlo samplers. The MH algorithm requires the choice of a proposal distribution q. In order to simplify the discussion, we will here assume that π and q admit densities with respect to the Lebesgue measure λ Leb, denoted with an abuse of notation π and q hereafter. The rôle of the distribution q consists of proposing potential transitions for the Markov chain { k }. Given that the chain is currently at x, a candidate y is accepted with probability αx, y defined as { 1 πy qy,x πx qx,y if πxqx, y > 0 αx, y = 1 otherwise, where a b def = mina, b. Otherwise it is rejected and the Markov chain stays at its current location x. The transition kernel P of this Markov chain takes the form for x, A B P x, A = αx, x+zqx, x+zλ Leb dz+1 A x 1 αx, x+zqx, x+zλ Leb dz, A x x 2 where A x def = {z, x + z A}. The Markov chain P is reversible with respect to π, and therefore admits π as invariant distribution. Conditions on the proposal distribution q that guarantee irreducibility and positive recurrence are mild and many satisfactory choices are possible; for the purpose of illustration, we concentrate in this introduction on the symmetric increments random-walk MH algorithm hereafter SRWM, in which qx, y = qy x for some symmetric probability density q on R nx, referred to as the increment distribution. The transition kernel Pq SRW of the Metropolis algorithm is then given for x, A B by Pq SRW x, A = 1 A x πx + z πx qz λ Leb dz + 1 A x x 1 1 πx + z qz λ Leb dz. 3 πx A classical choice for q is the multivariate normal distribution with zero-mean and covariance matrix Γ, N 0, Γ. We will later on refer to this algorithm as the N-SRWM. It is well known that either too small or too large a covariance matrix will result in highly positively correlated Markov chains, and therefore estimators S n f with a large variance Gelman et al have shown that the optimal covariance matrix under restrictive technical conditions not given here for the N-SRWM is /n x Γ π, where Γ π is the true covariance matrix of the target distribution. In practice this covariance matrix Γ is determined by trial and error, using several realisations of the Markov chain. This hand-tuning requires some expertise and can be time-consuming. In order to circumvent this problem, Haario et al have proposed to learn Γ on the fly. The Haario et al.

3 2001 algorithm can be summarized as follows, ERGODICITY OF ADAPTIVE MCMC 3 µ k+1 = µ k + γ k+1 k+1 µ k k 0 4 Γ k+1 = Γ k + γ k+1 k+1 µ k k+1 µ k T Γ k, where, denoting C nx + the cone of positive n x n x matrices, k+1 is drawn from P θk k,, where for θ = µ, Γ Θ = R nx C+ nx, P θ = PN SRW 0,λΓ is here the kernel of a symmetric random walk MH with a Gaussian increment distribution N 0, λγ, where λ > 0 is a constant scaling factor depending only on the dimension of the state-space n x and kept constant across the iterations, {γ k } is a non-increasing sequence of positive stepsizes such that γ k = and γ1+δ k < for some δ > 0 Haario et al have suggested the choice γ k = 1/k. It was realised in Andrieu and Robert 2001 that such a scheme is a particular case of a more general framework. More precisely, for θ = µ, Γ Θ, define H : Θ R nx R nx nx as Hθ, x def = x µ, x µx µ T Γ T. 5 With this notation, the recursion in 4 may be written as θ k+1 = θ k + γ k+1 Hθ k, k+1, k 0, 6 with k+1 P θk k,. This recursion is at the core of most of classical stochastic approximation algorithms see e.g. Benveniste et al. 1990, Duflo 1997, Kushner and Yin 1997 and the references therein. This algorithm is designed to solve the equations hθ = 0 where θ hθ is the so-called mean field defined as hθ def = Hθ, xπdx. 7 For the present example, assuming that x 2 πdx <, one can easily check that hθ = Hθ, xπdx = µ π µ, µ π µµ π µ T + Γ π Γ T, 8 with µ π and Γ π the mean and covariance of the target distribution, µ π = x πdx and Γ π = x µ π x µ π T πdx. 9 One can rewrite 6 as θ k+1 = θ k + γ k+1 hθ k + γ k+1 ξ k+1, where {ξ k = Hθ k 1, k hθ k 1, k 1} is generally referred to as the noise. The general theory of stochastic approximation SA provides us with conditions under which this recursion eventually converges to the set {θ Θ, hθ = 0}. These issues are discussed in Sections 3 and 5.

4 4 C. ANDRIEU & É. MOULINES In the context of adaptive MCMC, the parameter convergence is not the central issue; the focus is rather on the approximation of πf by the sample mean S n f. However there is here a difficulty with the adaptive approach: as the parameter estimate θ k = θ k 0,..., k depends on the whole past, the successive draws { k } do not define an homogeneous Markov chain and standard arguments for the consistency and asymptotic normality of S n f do not apply in this framework. Note that this is despite the fact that for any θ Θ, πp θ = π. This is illustrated by the following example. Let = {1, 2} and consider for θ, θ1, θ2 Θ the following Markov transition probability matrices [ ] [ ] 1 θ θ 1 θ1 θ1 P θ = P =. θ 1 θ θ2 1 θ2 One can check that for any θ Θ, π = 1/2, 1/2 satisfies πp θ = π. However if we let θ k be a given function θ : 0, 1 of the current state, i.e. θ k = θ k, one defines a new Markov chain with transition probability P with now [θ2/θ1+θ2, θ1/θ1+θ2] as invariant distribution. One recovers π when the dependence on the current state k is removed or vanishes with the iterations. With this example in mind, the problems that we address in the present paper and our main general results are in words the following: 1. In situations where θ k+1 θ k 0 as k + w.p. 1, we prove a strong law of large numbers for S n f see Theorem 8 under mild additional conditions. Such a consistency result may arise even in situations where the parameter sequence {θ k } does not converge. 2. In situations where θ k converges w.p. 1, we prove an invariance principle for ns n f πf; the limiting distribution is in general a mixture of Gaussian distributions see Theorem 9. Note that Haario et al have proved the consistency of Monte Carlo averages for the algorithm described by 4. Our result applies to more general settings and rely on assumptions which are less restrictive than those used in Haario et al The second point above, the invariance principle, has to the best of our knowledge not been addressed for adaptive MCMC algorithms. We point out that Atchadé and Rosenthal 2003 have independently extended the consistency result of Haario et al to the case where is unbounded, using Haario et al s mixingale technique. Our technique of proof is different and our algorithm allows for an unbounded parameter θ to be considered, as opposed to Atchadé and Rosenthal The paper is organized as follows. In Section 2 we detail our general procedure and introduce some notation. In Section 3, we establish the consistency i.e. a strong law of large numbers for S n f Theorem 8. In Section 4 we strengthen the conditions required to ensure the law of large numbers LLN for S n f and establish an invariance principle Theorem 9. In Section 5 we focus on the classical Robbins-Monro implementation of our procedure and introduce further conditions that allow us to prove that {θ k } converges w.p. 1 Theorem 11. In Section 6 we establish general properties of the generic SRWM required to ensure a LLN and an invariance principle. For pædagocical purposes we show how to apply these results to the N-SRWM of Haario et al Theorem 15. In Section 7 we present another application of our theory. We focus on the Independent Metropolis- Hastings algorithm IMH and establish general properties required for the LLN and the

5 ERGODICITY OF ADAPTIVE MCMC 5 invariance principle. We then go on to propose and analyse an algorithm that matches the so-called proposal distribution of the IMH to the target distribution π, in the case where the proposal distribution is a mixture of distributions from the exponential family. The main result of this section is Theorem 21. We conclude with the remark that this latter result equally applies to a generalisation of the N-SRWM, where the proposal is again a mixture of distributions. Application to samplers which consist of a mixture of SRWM and IMH is straightforward. 2. Algorithm description and main definitions. Before describing the procedure under study, it is necessary to introduce some notation and definitions. Let T be a separable space and let BT be a countably generated σ-field on T. For a Markov chain with transition probability P : T BT [0, 1] and any non-negative measurable function f : T [0, +, we denote by P ft = P t, f def = T P t, dt ft and for any integer k, P k the k-th iterate of the kernel. For a probability measure µ, we define, for any A BT, µp A def = T µdtp t, A. A Markov chain on a state space T is said to be µ-irreducible if there exists a measure µ on BT such that, whenever µa > 0, k=0 P k t, A > 0 for all t T. Denote by µ a maximal irreducibility measure for P see Meyn and Tweedie 1993 Chapter 4 for the definition and the construction of such a measure. If P is µ-irreducible, aperiodic and has an invariant probability measure π, then π is unique and is a maximal irreducibility measure. Two main ingredients are required for the definition of our adaptive MCMC algorithms: 1. A family of Markov transition kernels on, {P θ, θ Θ} indexed by a finitedimensional parameter θ Θ R n θ an open set. For each θ in Θ, it is assumed that P θ is π-irreducible and that πp θ = π, i.e. π is the invariant distribution for P θ. 2. A family of update functions {Hθ, x : Θ R n θ}, which are used to adapt the value of the tuning parameter. The adaptive algorithm studied in this paper which corresponds to the process {Z k } defined below requires for both its definition and study the introduction of an intermediate stopped process, which we now define. First, in order to take into account potential jumps outside the space Θ, we extend def the parameter space with a cemetery point, θ c Θ and define Θ = Θ {θ c }. It is convenient to introduce the family of transition kernels {Q γ, γ 0} such that for any γ 0, x, θ Θ, A B and B B Θ, Q γ x, θ; A B = A P θ x, dy1{θ + γhθ, y B} + δ θc B P θ x, dy1{θ + γhθ, y / Θ}, 10 where δ θ denotes the Dirac delta function at θ Θ. In its general form the basic version of the adaptive MCMC algorithms considered here may be written as follows. Set θ 0 = θ Θ, 0 = x, and for k 0 define recursively the sequence { k, θ k, k 0}: if θ k = θ c, then set θ k+1 = θ c and k+1 = x. Otherwise k+1, θ k+1 Q ρk+1 k, θ k ;, where ρ = {ρ k } A

6 6 C. ANDRIEU & É. MOULINES is a sequence of stepsizes. The sequence { k, θ k } is a non-homogeneous Markov chain on the product space Θ. This non-homogeneous Markov chain defines a probability measure on the canonical state space Θ N equipped with the canonical product σ- algebra. We denote F = {F k, k 0} the natural filtration of this Markov chain and P ρ x,θ and E ρ x,θ the probability and the expectation associated to this Markov chain starting from x, θ Θ. Because of the interaction with feedback between k and θ k, the stability of this inhomogeneous Markov chain is often difficult to establish. This is a long-standing problem in the field of stochastic optimization: known practical cures to this problem include the reprojections on a fixed set see Kushner and Yin 1997 or the more recent reprojection on random varying boundaries proposed in Chen and Zhu 1986, Chen et al and generalized in Andrieu et al More precisely, we first define the notion of compact coverage of Θ. A family of compact subsets {K q, q 0} of Θ is said to be a compact coverage if, K q = Θ, and K q intk q+1, q 0, 11 q 0 where inta denotes the interior of set A. Let γ def = {γ k } be a monotone non-increasing sequence of positive numbers and let K be a subset of. For a sequence a = {a k } and an integer l, we define the shifted sequence a l as follows: for any k 1, a l def k = a k+l. Let Π : Θ K K 0 be a measurable function. Define the homogeneous Markov chain Z k = { k, θ k, κ k, ν k, k 0} on the product space Z def = Θ N N with transition probability R : Z BZ : [0, 1] algorithmically defined as follows note that in order to alleviate notation, the dependence of R on both γ and {K q, q 0} is implicit throughout the paper: for any x, θ, κ, ν Z 1. If ν = 0, then draw, θ Q γκ Πx, θ; ; otherwise, draw, θ Q γκ+ν x, θ;. 2. If θ K κ, then set: κ = κ and ν = ν + 1; otherwise, set κ = κ + 1, and ν = 0. In words, κ and ν are counters: κ is the index of the current active truncation set; ν counts the number of iterations since the last reinitialisation. The event {ν k = 0} indicates that a reinitialization occurs: the algorithm is restarted at iteration k from a point in K K 0 with the smaller sequence of stepsizes γ κ k. Note the important fact, at the heart of our analysis, that between reinitializations this process coincides with the basic version of the algorithm described earlier, with ρ = γ κ k. This is formalized in Lemma 1 below. This algorithm is reminiscent of the projection on random varying boundaries proposed in Chen and Zhu 1986, Chen et al. 1988: whenever the current iterate wanders outside the active truncation set the algorithm is reinitialised with a smaller initial value of the stepsize and a larger truncation set. The homogeneous Markov chain {Z k, k 0} defines a probability measure on the canonical state space Z N equipped with the canonical product σ-algebra. We denote G = {G k, k 0}, P x,θ,k,l and Ēx,θ,k,l the filtration, probability and expectation associated to this Markov chain started from x, θ, k, l Z. For simplicity we will use the shorthand

7 notation Ē and P for ERGODICITY OF ADAPTIVE MCMC 7 Ēx,θ def = Ēx,θ,0,0 and P x,θ def = P x,θ,0,0 for all x, θ Θ. These probability measures depend upon the deterministic sequence γ : the dependence will be implicit hereafter. We define recursively {T n, n 0} the sequence of successive reinitialisation times T n+1 = inf {k T n + 1, ν k = 0}, with T 0 = 0, 12 where by convention inf{ } =. It may be shown that under mild conditions on {P θ, θ Θ}, {Hθ, x, θ, x Θ } and the sequence γ, P sup κ n < = P {T n = } = 1, n 0 i.e., the number of reinitialisations of the procedure described above is finite P -a.s.. We postpone the presentation and the discussion of simple sufficient conditions that ensure that this holds in concrete situations to Sections 5, 6 and 7. We will however assume this property to hold in Sections 3 and 4. Again, we stress on the fact that our analysis of the homogeneous Markov chain {Z k } the algorithm for a given sequence γ relies on the study of the inhomogeneous Markov chain defined earlier the stopped process, def for the sequences {ρ k = γ κ k} of stepsizes. It is therefore important to precisely and probabilistically relate these two processes. This is the aim of the lemma below adapted from Andrieu et al., 2005, Lemma 4.1. Define for K Θ, n=0 σk = inf{k 1, θ k K}. 13 Lemma 1. For any m 1, for any non-negative measurable function Ψ m : Θ m R +, for any integer k 0 and x, θ Θ, Ē x,θ,k,0 [Ψ m 1, θ 1,..., m, θ m 1{T 1 m}] = E γ k Πx,θ [Ψ m 1, θ 1,..., m, θ m 1{σK k m}]. 3. Law of large numbers. Hereafter, for a probability distribution P, the various kinds of convergence in probability, almost-sure and weak in distribution are denoted respectively prob. a.s P, P and D P Assumptions. As pointed out in the introduction, a LLN has been obtained for a particular adaptive MCMC algorithm by Haario et al. 2001, using mixingale theory see McLeish Our approach is more in line with the martingale proof of the LLN for Markov chains, and is based on the existence and regularity of the solutions of Poisson s equation and martingale limit theory. The existence and appropriate properties of those solutions can be easily established under a uniform in the parameter θ version of the V - uniform ergodicity of the transition kernels P θ see condition A1 below and Proposition 3.

8 8 C. ANDRIEU & É. MOULINES We will use the following notation throughout the paper. For W : [1, and f : R a measurable function define fx f W = sup x W x and L W = {f : f W < }. 14 We will also consider functions f : Θ R. We will often use the short-hand notation f θ x = fθ, x for all θ, x Θ in order to avoid ambiguities. We will assume that f θ 0 whenever θ / Θ except when f θ does not depend on θ, i.e. f θ f θ for any θ, θ Θ Θ. Let W : [1,. We say that the family of functions {f θ : R, θ Θ} is W - Lipschitz if for any compact subset K Θ, sup f θ W < and sup θ θ 1 f θ f θ W <. 15 θ K θ,θ K K,θ θ A1 For any θ Θ, P θ has π as stationary distribution. In addition there exists a function V : [1, such that sup x K V x < with K defined in Section 2 and such that for any compact subset K Θ, i Minorization condition. There exist C B, ɛ > 0 and a probability measure ϕ all three depending on K such that ϕc > 0 and for all A B and θ, x K C P θ x, A ɛϕa. ii Drift condition. There exist constants λ [0, 1, b 0, depending on V, C and K satisfying { λv x x C P θ V x b x C, for all θ K. A2 For any compact subset K Θ and any r [0, 1] there exists a constant C depending on K and r such that, for any θ, θ K K and f L V r, where V is given in A1. P θ f P θ f V r C f V r θ θ, A3 {H θ, θ Θ} is V β -Lipschitz for some β [0, 1/2] with V defined in A1. Remark 1. Note that for the sake of clarity and simplicity, we restrict here our results to the case where {P θ, θ Θ} satisfy one-step drift and minorisation conditions. As shown in Andrieu et al the more general case where either an m-step drift or minorisation condition is assumed for m > 1 requires one to modify the algorithm in order to prevent large jumps in the parameter space see Andrieu and Moulines 2003 Andrieu et al This mainly leads to substantial notational complications, but the arguments remain essentially unchanged.

9 ERGODICITY OF ADAPTIVE MCMC 9 Conditions of the type A1 to establish geometric ergodicity have been extensively studied over the last decade for the Metropolis-Hastings algorithms. Typically the required drift function depends on the target distribution π, which makes our requirement of uniformity in θ K in A1 reasonable and relatively easy to establish see Sections 6 and 7. The following theorem, due to Meyn and Tweedie 1994 and recently improved by Baxendale 2005 converts information about the drift and minorization condition into information about the long-term behaviour of the chain. Theorem 2. Assume A1. Then, for all θ Θ, P θ admits π as its unique stationary probability measure, and πv <. Let K Θ be a compact subset and r [0, 1]. There exists ρ < 1 depending only and explicitly on the constants r, ɛ, ϕc, λ and b given in A1 such that, whenever ρ ρ, 1, there exists C < depending only and explicitly on r, ρ, ɛ, ϕc and b such that for any f L V r, for all θ K and k 0, P k θ f πf V r C f V rρk. 16 Formulas for ρ and C are given in Meyn and Tweedie, 1994, Theorem 2.3 and have been later improved in Baxendale, 2005, Section 2.1. This theorem automatically ensures the existence of solutions to Poisson s equation. More precisely, for all θ, x Θ and f L V r, k=0 P θ k fx πf < and def ˆf θ = k=0 P θ k f πf, is a solution of Poisson s equation ˆf θ P θ ˆfθ = f πf. 17 Poisson s equation has proven to be a fundamental tool for the analysis of additive functionals, in particular to establish limit theorems such as the functional central limit theorem see e.g. Benveniste et al. 1990, Nummelin 1991, Meyn and Tweedie, 1993, Chapter 17, Glynn and Meyn 1996, Duflo The Lipschitz continuity of the transition kernel P θ as a function of θ Assumption A2 does not seem to have been studied for the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. We establish this continuity for the SRWM algorithm and the independent MH algorithm IMH in Sections 6 and 7. This assumption, used in conjunction with A1, allows one to establish the Lipschitz continuity of the solution of Poisson s equation. Proposition 3. Assume A1. Suppose that the family of functions {f θ, θ Θ} is V r - def Lipschitz, for some r [0, 1]. Define for any θ Θ, ˆfθ = k=0 P k θ f θ πf θ. Then, for any compact set K, there exists a constant C such that, for any θ, θ K, ˆf θ V r + P θ ˆfθ V r C sup f θ V r 18 θ K ˆf θ ˆf θ V r + P θ ˆfθ P θ ˆfθ V r C θ θ sup f θ V r. 19 θ K The proof is given in Appendix B. Remark 2. The regularity of the solutions of Poisson s equation has been studied, under various ergodicity and regularity conditions on the mapping θ P θ, by see for instance

10 10 C. ANDRIEU & É. MOULINES Benveniste et al and Bartusek 2000 for regularity under conditions implying V -uniform geometric ergodicity. The results of the proposition above are sharper than those reported in the literature because all the transition kernels P θ share the same limiting distribution π, a property which plays a key role in the proof. We finish this section with a convergence result for the chain { k } under the probability P ρ x,θ, which is an important direct byproduct of the property just mentioned in the remark above. This result improves on Holden 1998, Haario et al and Atchadé and Rosenthal Proposition 4. Assume A1-3, let ρ 0, 1 be as in Eq. 16, let ρ = { ρ k } be a positive and finite, non-increasing sequence such that lim sup k ρ k nk / ρ k < + with for k k 0 for some integer k 0, nk := log ρ k / ρ/ logρ +1 k and nk = 0 otherwise, where ρ [ρ 1, +. Let f L V 1 β, where V is defined in A1 and β is defined in A3. Let K be a compact subset of Θ. Then there exists a constant C 0, + depending only on K, the constants in A1 and ρ such that for any x, θ K, E ρ x,θ {f k πf1{σk k}} C f V 1 β ρ k V x. The proof is in Appendix B 3.2. Law of large numbers. We prove in this section a law of large numbers LLN under P for n 1 n f θ k k, where {f θ, θ Θ} is a set of sufficiently regular functions. It is worth noticing here that it is not required that the sequence {θ k } converges in order to establish our result. The proof is based on the identity, f θk k πdxf θk x = ˆf θk k P θk ˆfθk k, where ˆf θ is a solution of Poisson s equation, Eq. 17. The decomposition ˆf θk k P θk ˆfθk k = ˆfθk 1 k P θk 1 ˆfθk k ˆf θk 1 k + ˆf θk 1 k 1 + P θk 1 ˆfθk 1 k 1 P θk ˆfθk k, 20 evidences the different terms that need to be controlled to prove the LLN. The first term in the decomposition is except at the time of a jump a martingale difference sequence. As we shall see, this is the leading term in the decomposition and the other terms are remainders which are easily dealt with thanks to the regularity of the solutions of Poisson s equation under A1. The term ˆf θk k ˆf θk 1 k can be interpreted as the perturbation introduced by adaption. We preface our main result, Theorem 8, with two intermediate propositions concerned with the control of the fluctuations of the sum n f θ k k πdxf θ k x for the inhomogeneous chain { k, θ k } under the probability P ρ x,θ. The following lemma, whose proof is given in Appendix A, is required in order to prove Propositions 6 and 7.

11 ERGODICITY OF ADAPTIVE MCMC 11 Lemma 5. Assume A1. Let K Θ be a compact set and r [0, 1] be a constant. There exists a constant C depending only on r, K and the constants in A1 such that, for any sequences ρ = {ρ k } and a = {a k } of positive numbers and for any x, θ K E ρ x,θ [V r k 1{σK k}] CV r x, 21 [ ] k r E ρ x,θ max a mv m r 1{σK m} C r a m V r x, 22 1 m k m=1 [ m ] E ρ x,θ max 1{σK m} V r k CnV r x m n Proposition 6. Assume A1-3. Let {f θ, θ Θ} be a V α -Lipschitz family of functions for some α [0, 1 β, where V is defined in A1 and β is defined in A3. Let K be a compact subset of Θ. Then for any p 1, 1/α +β], there exists a constant C depending only on p, K and the constants in A1 such that, for any sequence ρ = {ρ k } of positive numbers such that k 1 ρ k < we have for all x, θ K, δ > 0, γ > α, and integer l 1, [ ] P ρ x,θ P ρ x,θ [ sup m 1 M m δ m l sup m l { 1{σK > m} m γ m Cδ p sup f θ p V l {p/2 p 1} V αp x, 24 α θ K f θk k } ] f θk xπdx M m δ { p } Cδ p sup f θ p V k l γ ρ α k V x βp + l γ αp V αp x, θ K def where σk is given in Eq. 13, ˆfθ = [P θ kf θ πf θ ] is a solution of Poisson s equation, Eq. 17, and M m def = 1{σK > m} 25 m [ ˆf θk 1 k P θk 1 ˆfθk 1 k 1 ]. 26 Remark 3. The result provides us with some useful insights into the properties of MCMC with vanishing adaption. First, whenever {θ k } K Θ for a deterministic compact set K, the bounds above give explicit rates of convergence for ergodic averages 1. The price to pay for adaption is apparent on the RHS of Eq. 25, as reported in Andrieu The constraints on p, β and α illustrate the tradeoff between the rate of convergence, the smoothness of adaption and the class of functions covered by our result. Scenarios of interest include the case where assumption A3 is satisfied with β = 0 in other words for any compact subset K Θ, the function sup θ K sup x H θ x < or the case where A3 holds for any β 0, 1/2], which both imply that the results of the proposition hold for any α < 1 see Theorem 15 for an application. Proof of Proposition 6. For notational simplicity, we set σ def = σk. Let p 1, 1/α + β] and K Θ be a compact set. In this proof C is a constant which only depends upon

12 12 C. ANDRIEU & É. MOULINES the constants in A1-3, p and K; this constant may take different values upon each appearance. Theorem 2 implies that for any θ Θ, ˆf θ exists and is a solution of Poisson s equation Eq. 17. We decompose the sum 1{σ > m} m f θ k k f θ k xπdx as M m + R m 1 + R m 2 where R 1 m R 2 m def = 1{σ > m} def = 1{σ > m} m ˆf θk k ˆf θk 1 k, P θ0 ˆfθ0 0 P θm ˆfθm m We consider these terms separately. First since 1{σ > m} = 1{σ > m}1{σ k} for 0 k m, m M m = 1{σ > m} ˆfθk 1 k P θk 1 ˆf θk 1 k 1 1{σ k} M m, where M m def = m [ ˆfθk 1 k P θk 1 ] ˆf θk 1 k 1. 1{σ k}. By Proposition 3, Eq. 18, there exists a constant C such that for all θ K, ˆf θ V α + P θ ˆfθ V α C sup θ K f θ V α. Since 0 αp 1, by using Eq. 21 in Lemma 5 we have for all x, θ K, { E ρ x,θ ˆf } θk 1 k p + P θk 1 ˆfθk 1 k 1 p 1{σ k} CV αp x sup f θ p V. 27 α θ K Since {[ ] } E ρ x,θ ˆfθk 1 k P θk 1 ˆf θk 1 k 1 1{σ k} F k 1 = P θk 1 ˆfθk 1 k 1 P θk 1 ˆfθk 1 k 1 1{σ k} = 0, { M m } is a P ρ x,θ, {F k}-adapted martingale with increments bounded in L p. Using Burkholder s inequality for p > 1 Hall and Heyde 1980 Theorem 2.10, we have E ρ x,θ { M m p} C p E ρ x,θ { m ˆf p/2 } θk 1 k P θk 1 ˆfθk 1 k 1 2 1{σ k}, 28 where C p is a universal constant. For p 2, by Minkowski s inequality, E ρ x,θ { M m p} C p { m For 1 p 2, we have E ρ x,θ { m } { p/2 E ρ x,θ ˆf 2/p θk 1 k P θk 1 ˆfθk 1 k 1 p 1{σ k}}. ˆf p/2 } θk 1 k P θk 1 ˆfθk 1 k 1 2 1{σ k} E ρ x,θ { m 29 } ˆf θk 1 k P θk 1 ˆfθk 1 k 1 p 1{σ k}. 30

13 ERGODICITY OF ADAPTIVE MCMC 13 By combining the two cases above and using Eq. 27, we obtain for any x, θ K and p > 1, { E ρ x,θ M m p} Cm p/2 1 sup f θ p V V αp x. 31 α θ K Let l 1. By Birnbaum and Marshall 1961 s inequality a straightforward adaptation of Birnbaum and Marshall 1961 s result is given in Proposition 22, Appendix A and Eq. 31 there exists a constant C such that P ρ x,θ [ sup m l m 1 M m δ ] { δ p m p m + 1 p E ρ x,θ m=l Cδ p sup f θ p V α θ K m=l { M m p}} m p 1+p/2 1 V αp x Cδ p sup f θ p V l {p/2 p 1} V αp x, α θ K which proves Eq. 24. We now consider R 1 m. Eq. 19 shows that there exists a constant C such that, for any θ, θ K K, ˆf θ ˆf θ V α C θ θ sup θ K f θ V α. On the other hand, by construction, θ k θ k 1 = ρ k Hθ k 1, k for σ k and under assumption A3 there exists a constant C such that, for any x, θ K, Hθ, x CV β x. Therefore, there exists C such that, for any m l and γ > α, m γ R 1 m = m γ 1{σ > m} m { ˆfθk k ˆf } θk 1 k C sup f θ V α θ K m k l γ ρ k V α+β k 1{σ k}. Hence, using Minkowski s inequality and Eq. 21 one deduces that there exists C such that for x, θ K, l 1 and γ > α, { } p E ρ x,θ sup m γp R m 1 p C sup f θ p V k l γ ρ α k V α+βp x. 32 m l θ K Consider now R m 2. The term P θ0 ˆfθ0 0 does not pose any problem. From Lemma 5 Eq. 22 there exists a constant C such that, for all x, θ K and 0 < α < γ, E ρ x,θ { sup m l m γp Pθm ˆfθm m p } 1{σ > m} C sup f θ p V E ρ α x,θ θ K { sup m l m γ/α V α m αp C sup f θ p V k γ/α V αp x. α θ K k=l p } 1{σ > m} The case α = 0 is straightforward. From Markov s inequality, Eqs. 32 and 33 one deduces

14 14 C. ANDRIEU & É. MOULINES We can now apply the results of Proposition 6 for the inhomogeneous Markov chain defined below 10 to the time homogeneous time chain {Z k } under the assumption that the number of reinitialization κ n is P almost surely finite. Note that the very general form of the result will allow us to prove a central limit theorem in Section 4. Proposition 7. Let {K q, q 0} be a compact coverage of Θ and let γ = {γ k } be a nonincreasing positive sequence such that k 1 γ k <. Consider the time homogeneous Markov chain {Z k } on Z with transition probability R as defined in Section 2. Assume A1-3 and let F def = {f θ, θ Θ} be a V α -Lipschitz family of functions for some α [0, 1 β, with β as in A3 and V as in A1. Assume in addition that P {lim n κ n < } = 1. Then for any f θ F, n 1 n f θk k f θk xπdx 1{ν k 0} a.s P Proof. Without loss of generality, we may assume that, for any θ Θ, f θxπdx = 0. def Let p 1, 1/α + β] and denote κ = lim n κ n. By construction of the T k s see Eq. 12, since P -a.s. we have κ < then T κ <, P -a.s.. We now decompose S n = n f def θ k k 1{ν k 0} as S n = S n 1 + S n 2, where S n 1 def = T κ n f θk k 1{ν k 0} and S n 2 def = n k=t κ +1 f θ k k. Since T κ < P -a.s., T κ f θ k k 1{ν k 0} <, P -a.s., showing that n 1 S n 1 0, P -a.s.. We now bound the second term. For any integers n and K, P [ sup m n K i=0 m 1 S 2 m P sup m n ] δ, κ K m 1 m f θk k δ, κ = i, T i n/2 + P [T κ > n/2]. 35 k=t i +1 Since for κ = i, T i+1 =, sup m 1 m f θk k m n k=t i +1 δ, κ = i, T i n/2 sup 1{T i+1 > m} m 1 m f θk k m n k=t i +1 δ, T i n/2 { m } 1{σK i > m} m 1 f θk k τ T i δ, sup m n/2 where we have used that T i+1 = T i + σk i τ T i with τ the shift operator on the canonical space of the chain {Z n }. As a consequence, by applying Lemma 1 noting that 1{σK i m}1{σk i > m} = 1{σK i > m} and 1{σK i > m} F m, the strong Markov property, Proposition 6 with γ = 1, using the fact that {γ k } is non-increasing and that

15 ERGODICITY OF ADAPTIVE MCMC 15 sup x K V x <, we have for 0 i K, P sup m 1 m f θk k m n k=t i +1 δ, κ = i, T i n/2 G T i [ m ] P γ i Π Ti,θ Ti sup 1{σK i > m}m 1 f θk k m n/2 δ { p C δ p sup f θ p n p1 α n } {p/2 p 1} V [ n/2 k] 1 γ α k + +. θ K i 2 2 By Kronecker s lemma, the condition k 1 γ k < implies that n 1 n γ k 0 as n, showing that n/2 [ n/2 k] 1 γ k n/2 1 γ k + k= n/2 +1 k 1 γ k 0, as n. Combining this together with 35 and 36 shows that, for any K, δ, η > 0 there exists N such that for n N, [ ] P sup m 1 S 2 m δ, κ K η. m n Now for K large enough so that P [κ > K] η the result above shows that there exists an N such that for any n N P [ ] sup m n m 1 S 2 m δ 2η, which concludes the proof. Remark 4. Checking P lim n κ n < = 1 depends on the particular algorithm used to update the parameters. Verifiable conditions have been established in Andrieu et al to check the stability of the algorithm; see Sections 5, 6 and 7. We may now state our main consistency result. Theorem 8. Let {K q, q 0} be a compact coverage of Θ and let γ = {γ k } be a nonincreasing positive sequence such that k 1 γ k <. Consider the time homogeneous Markov chain {Z k } on Z with transition probability R as defined in Section 2. Assume A1-3 and let f : R be a function such that f V α < for some α [0, 1 β with β as in A3 and V as in A1. Assume in addition that P {lim n κ n < } = 1. Then, n 1 n 36 [f k πf] a.s P Proof. We may assume that πf = 0. From Proposition 7 it is sufficient to prove that n 1 κ n j=1 f T j a.s P 0. Since κ < P -a.s., κ j=1 f Tj < P -a.s.. The proof follows from κ n j=1 f T j κ j=1 f Tj.

16 16 C. ANDRIEU & É. MOULINES 4. Invariance principle. We now prove an invariance principle. As it is the case for homogeneous Markov chains, more stringent conditions are required here than for the simple LLN. In particular we will require here that the series {θ k } converges P -a.s.. This is in contrast with simple consistency for which boundedness of {θ k } was sufficient. The main idea of the proof consists of approximating n 1/2 n {f k πf} with a triangular array of martingale differences sequence, and then apply an invariance principle for martingale differences to show the desired result. Theorem 9. Let {K q, q 0} be a compact coverage of Θ and let γ = {γ k } be a nonincreasing positive sequence such that k 1/2 γ k <. Consider the time homogeneous Markov chain {Z k } on Z with transition probability R as defined in Section 2. Assume A1-3 and let f : R satisfying f L V α where V is defined in A1 and α [0, 1 β/2 with β as in A3. Denote for any θ Θ, [ ] σ 2 θ, f def 2 def = π ˆfθ P θ ˆfθ with ˆfθ = f πf]. 38 Assume in addition that there exists a random variable θ Θ, such that πdx ˆf 2 θ x < and πdxp θ ˆfθ x 2 < P -a.s. and Then, k=0 lim sup θ n θ = 0, P a.s. n n 1/2 n [f k πf] D P Z, [ where the random variable Z has characteristic function Ē exp 1 2 σ2 θ, ft 2 ]. If in addition σθ, f > 0, P -a.s., then 1 n f k πf D P N 0, nσθ, f Proof. Without loss of generality, we suppose that πf = 0. The proof relies again on a martingale approximation. Set for k 1, [ ] def ξ k = ˆfθk 1 k P θk 1 ˆf θk 1 k 1 1{ν k 1 0}. 40 Since f is V α -Lipschitz, Proposition 3 shows that { ˆf θ, θ Θ} and {P θ ˆfθ, θ Θ} are V α -Lipschitz. Since 2α < 1, this implies that {P θ ˆf 2 θ, θ Θ} and {P θ ˆfθ 2, θ Θ} are V 2α - Lipschitz. We deduce that {ξ k } is a P, {G k, k 0}-adapted square-integrable martingale difference sequence, i.e. for all k 1, Ē [ξk 2] < and Ē [ξ k G k 1 [ ] = 0, P -a.s.. We are going to prove that with Z a r.v. with characteristic function Ē exp 1 2 σ2 θ, ft 2 ], 1 n 1 n n n ξ k D [P k θ P Z 41 f k 1 n n ξ k a.s P 0. 42

17 ERGODICITY OF ADAPTIVE MCMC 17 To show 41, we use Hall and Heyde, 1980, Corollary 3.1 of Theorem We need to establish that a the sequence n 1 n Ē [ξ 2 k G k 1] converges in P -probability to σ 2 θ, f, b the conditional Lindeberg condition is satisfied, for all ε > 0, n 1 n Ē [ξ 2 k 1{ ξ k ε n} G k 1 ] prob. P We first prove a. Note that [ ] 2 Ē [ξk 2 G 2 k 1] = P θk 1 ˆf θk 1 k 1 P θk 1 ˆfθk 1 k 1 1{ν k 1 0}. Since {P θ ˆf 2 θ, θ Θ} and {P θ ˆfθ 2, θ Θ} are V 2α -Lipschitz and 2α [0, 1 β, we may apply Proposition 7 to prove that 1 n n [ ] 2 2 P θk 1 ˆf θk 1 k 1 P θk 1 ˆfθk 1 k 1 1{ν k 1 0} 1 n n 1 k=0 [ ] 2 2 πdx P θk ˆf θk x P θk ˆfθk x 1{ν k 0} a.s P 0. For any j 0 and κ = j, {θ k, k > T j } K j, which together with the V 2α -Lipschitz property and the dominated convergence theorem imply that, [ ] 2 lim 1{κ 2 = j} πdx P θk ˆf θk x P θk ˆfθk x k [ ] 2 2 = 1{κ = j} πdx P θ ˆf θ x P θ ˆfθ x, P a.s. By the dominated convergence theorem and since P κ < = 1, [ ] 2 2 πdx P θk ˆf θk x P θk ˆfθk x 1{ν k 0} lim k = lim = k j=0 { j=0 { lim k πdx [ ]} 2 2 P θk ˆf θk x P θk ˆfθk x 1{ν k 0}1{κ = j} [ ]} 2 2 πdx P θk ˆf θk x P θk ˆfθk x 1{κ = j}, P a.s. and the Cesàro convergence theorem finally shows that 1 lim n n n 1 k=0 [ ] 2 2 πdx P θk ˆf θk x P θk ˆfθk x 1{ν k 0} = [ ] 2 2 πdx P θ ˆf θ x P θ ˆfθ x, P a.s.

18 18 C. ANDRIEU & É. MOULINES We now establish the conditional Lindeberg condition in b. We use the following Lemma, which is a conditional version of Dvoretzky, 1972, Lemma 3.3. Lemma 10. Let G be a σ-field and a random variable such that E [ 2 G ] <. Then, for any ε > 0, 4E [ 2 1{ ε} G ] E [ E [ G] 2 1{ E [ G] 2ε} G ]. Using Dvoretzky s lemma, we have for any ε, M > 0 and n large enough, n 1 n Ē [ξk 2 1{ ξ k ε n} G k 1 ] 4n 1 n 1 k=0 P θk k, dx ˆf 2 θ k x1{ ˆf θk x M} 1{ν k 0}, P a.s. Proceeding as above, the right-hand side of the previous display converges P -a.s. to πdx ˆf θ 2 x1{ ˆf θ x M}, where we have used that, for any θ Θ, πp θ = π. Since πdx ˆf θ 2 x < P -a.s., the monotone convergence theorem implies that πdx ˆf θ 2 x1{ ˆf θ x M} = 0, P a.s. lim M showing that the conditional Lindeberg condition b holds. In order to prove Eq. 42, we proceed along the lines of the proof of Proposition 7. Firstly, since κ <, P -a.s., T κ f k + T κ ξ k <, P -a.s., which implies that T n 1/2 κ T κ f k ξ k a.s P Secondly, proceeding as in the proof of 36 and using Eq. 25 of Proposition 6 with γ = 1/2 and some p 1, 1/α + β] since f is V α -Lipschitz, we have that for any 0 i K for some K > 0 and n > 0, P sup m 1/2 m m f k ξ k m n k=t i +1 k=t i +1 δ, κ = i, T i n/2 G T i { p C δ p f p n } p1/2 α V [ n/2 k] 1/2 γ α k Under the assumption k 1/2 γ k <, proceeding as below Eq. 36, one can show that lim n [ n/2 k] 1/2 γ k = 0. Arguing as in 35 we conclude that m 1/2 m k=t i +1 f k m k=t i +1 ξ k a.s P 0. 46

19 ERGODICITY OF ADAPTIVE MCMC 19 The proof of 42 follows from 44 and 46. The proof of 39 follows from Hall and Heyde, 1980, Corollary 3.2 of Theorem Stability and convergence of the stochastic approximation process. In order to conclude the part of this paper dedicated to the general theory of adaptive MCMC algorithm, we now present generally verifiable conditions under which the number of reinitializations of the algorithm that produces the Markov chain {Z k } described in Section 2 is P -a.e. finite. This is a difficult problem per se, which has been worked out in a companion paper, Andrieu et al We here briefly introduce the conditions under which this key property is satisfied and give without proof the main stability result. The reader should refer to Andrieu et al for more details. As mentioned in the introduction, the convergence of the stochastic approximation procedure is closely related to the stability of the noiseless sequence θ k+1 = θ k + γ k+1 h θ k. A practical technique to prove the stability of the noiseless sequence consists, when possible, of determining a Lyapunov function w : Θ [0, such that wθ, hθ 0, where w denotes the gradient of w with respect to θ and for u, v R n, u, v is their Euclidian inner product we will later on also use the notation v = v, v to denote the Euclidean norm of v. This indeed shows that the noiseless sequence {w θ k } eventually decreases, showing that lim k w θ k exists. It should therefore not be surprising if such a Lyapunov function can play an important rôle in showing the stability of the noisy sequence {θ k }. With this in mind, we can now detail the conditions required to prove our convergence result. A4 Θ is an open subset of R n θ. The mean field h : Θ R n θ is continuous and there exists a continuously differentiable function w : Θ [0, with the convention wθ = when θ Θ such that: i For any M > 0, the level set W M def = {θ Θ, wθ M} Θ is compact, ii The set of stationary points L def = {θ Θ, wθ, hθ = 0} belongs to the interior of Θ, iii For any θ Θ, wθ, hθ 0 and the closure of wl has an empty interior. Finally we require some conditions on the sequence of stepsizes γ = {γ k }. A5 The sequence γ = {γ k } is non-increasing, positive and γ k = and } {γ k 2 + k 1/2 γ k <. The following theorem is a straightforward simplification of Andrieu et al., 2005, Theorems 5.4 and 5.5 and shows that the tail probability of the number of reinitialisations decreases faster than any exponential and that the parameter sequence {θ k } converges to the stationary set L. For a point x and a set A we denote dx, A def = inf{ x y : y A}. Theorem 11. Let {K q, q 0} be a compact coverage of Θ and let γ = {γ k } be a real valued sequence. Consider the time homogeneous Markov chain {Z k } on Z with transition

20 20 C. ANDRIEU & É. MOULINES probability R as defined in Section 2. Assume A1-5. Then, lim sup k 1 log k [ P x,θ inf x,θ Θ sup x,θ Θ P x,θ [sup κ n k] =, n 0 ] lim dθ k, L = 0 = 1. k 6. Consistency and invariance principle for the adaptive N-SRW kernel. In this section we show how our results can be applied to the adaptive N-SRWM algorithm proposed by Haario et al and described in Section 1. We first illustrate how the conditions required to prove the LLN in Haario et al can be alleviated. In particular no boundedness condition is required on the parameter set Θ, but rather conditions on the tails of the target distribution π. We then extend these results further and prove a central limit theorem Theorem 15. In view of the results proved above it is required a to prove the ergodicity and regularity conditions for the Markov kernels outlined in assumption A1 b to prove that the reinitializations occur finitely many times stability and that {θ k } eventually converges. Note again that the convergence property is only required for the CLT. We first focus on a. The geometric ergodicity of the SRWM kernel has been studied by Roberts and Tweedie 1996 and refined by Jarner and Hansen 2000; the regularity of the SRWM kernel has, to the best of our knowledge, not been considered in the literature. The geometric ergodicity of the SRWM kernel mainly depends on the tail properties of the target distribution π. We will therefore restrict our discussion to target distributions that satisfy the following set of conditions. These are not minimal but easy to check in practice see Jarner and Hansen 2000 for details. M The probability density π is defined on = R nx for some integer n x and has the following properties: i It is bounded, bounded away from zero on every compact set and continuously differentiable. ii It is super-exponential, i.e. lim x + x, log π x =. x iii The contours A x = {y : πy = πx} are asymptotically regular, i.e. x lim sup π x, < 0. x + x π x We now establish uniform minorisation and drift conditions for the SRWM algorithm defined in Eq. 3. Let M denote the set of probability densities w.r.t. the Lebesgue

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