SPACE WEATHER AND POLAR OPERATIONS MIKE STILLS MANAGER INTERNATIONAL OPERATIONS FLIGHT DISPATCH JANUARY 2008

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1 SPACE WEATHER AND POLAR OPERATIONS MIKE STILLS MANAGER INTERNATIONAL OPERATIONS FLIGHT DISPATCH JANUARY 2008

2 ON AUGUST 30TH OF 2007, UNITED COMPLETED IT S 7000 TH POLAR OPERATION WHEN UNITED FLIGHT 835 FLEW FROM CHICAGO TO SHANGHAI VIA POLAR 4

4 ADDITIONAL ROUTES CHICAGO - HONG KONG CHICAGO - BEIJING CHICAGO - SHANGHAI CHICAGO TOKYO WASHINGTON TOKYO WASHINGTON - BEIJING

5 UNITED POLAR ROUTES WASHINGTON 82 N #1 ABERI #1A #2 DEVID #3 RAMEL CHICAGO #4 ORVIT BEIJING HONG KONG SHANGHAI OSAKA TOKYO

6 UNITED BEGAN OPERATING FLIGHTS FROM CHICAGO TO HONG KONG IN DUE TO STRONG HEADWINDS IN WINTER, THE FLIGHT WAS NOT ABLE TO OPERATE YEAR ROUND

7 1997 POLAR ROUTES IDENTIFIED AS VIABLE ALTERNATIVE ALLOWING NON STOP CAPABILITY YEAR ROUND 1998 FIRST POLAR FLIGHT OPERATED BY CATHAY PACIFIC - NEW YORK TO HONG KONG 1999 FIRST UNITED POLAR DEMO FLIGHTS

POLAR FLIGHT OPERATED BY CATHAY PACIFIC - NEW YORK

8 MARCH 2006 COMPARISON FLIGHT 829 ORD-HKG POLAR PSGRS AND 5000LBS CARGO (14:32) FLIGHT 829 ORD-HKG RUSSIAN ROUTE 246 PSGRS AND NO CARGO (15:41) FLIGHT 829 ORD-HKG NOPAC NO PSGRS OR CARGO (17:18)

9 HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE 1999-UNITED OPERATED 12 POLAR DEMO FLIGHTS 2000-UNITED OPERATED 253 POLAR FLIGHTS 2001-UNITED OPERATED 466 POLAR FLIGHTS 2002-UNITED OPERATED 471 POLAR FLIGHTS 2003-UNITED OPERATED 578 POLAR FLIGHTS 2004-UNITED OPERATED 1096 POLAR FLIGHTS 2005-UNITED OPERATED 1402 POLAR FLIGHTS 2006-UNITED OPERATED 1484 POLAR FLIGHTS 2007-UNITED OPERATED 1832 POLAR FLIGHTS

2003-UNITED OPERATED 578 POLAR FLIGHTS 2004-UNITED OPERATED 1096 POLAR FLIGHTS 2005-UNITED

11 OPERATIONAL CONCERNS IN THE POLAR REGION (DEFINED AS NORTH OF 78N LATITUDE) POTENTIAL HAZARDS 1) SOLAR ACTIVITY 2) COLD TEMPERATURES 3) DIVERSION SUPPORT 4) COMMUNICATION RESTRAINTS

12 FAA REQUIREMENTS POLAR TRAINING SATCOM (OR HF DATA LINK) AED (DEFIBRILLATORS) RECOVERY PLAN IN THE EVENT OF DIVERSION 2 COLD WEATHER ANTI-EXPOSURE SUITS ABILITY TO OPERATE IN AREAS OF MAGNETIC UNRELIABILITY FUEL FREEZE ANALYSIS PROGRAM PLAN FOR SOLAR ACTIVITY

WEATHER ANTI-EXPOSURE SUITS ABILITY TO OPERATE IN AREAS OF

13 POTENTIAL ISSUES HUMAN SAFETY LOWER, LESS EFFICIENT ALTITUDES TO LIMIT RADIATION EXPOSURE COMMUNICATION - FAR MANDATES RELIABLE COMMUNICATION OVER THE ENTIRE ROUTE OF FLIGHT - SATCOM LOST AT 82 N NAVIGATION - UAL AIRCRAFT ARE EQUIPPED WITH GPS AND INERTIAL REFERENCE UNITS

99 MANDATES RELIABLE COMMUNICATION OVER THE ENTIRE ROUTE OF FLIGHT -

14 DURING ADVERSE SOLAR ACTIVITY, UAL POLICY RESTRICTS FLIGHTS TO SPECIFIC ROUTES AND ALTITUDES. UAL POLICY IN PART, IS DERIVED FROM AND BASED ON THE NOAA SPACE WEATHER SCALES

15 POLAR WEATHER PACKAGE CONTAINS A REPORT ON SOLAR ACTIVITY AND COMMENTS BASED ON SWPC RECOMMENDATIONS POLAR WEATHER PACKAGE IS A BASIS FOR PLANNING. ON SITE METEOROLOGISTS ALSO MONITOR SWPC WEBSITES AND MAINTAIN CONTACT WITH THE SWPC FOR EN ROUTE CONSIDERATIONS ON SITE METEOROLOGY DEPARTMENT COORDINATES FORECASTS AND DATA INTO A POLAR WEATHER PACKAGE FOR USE BY FLIGHT DISPATCH AND FLIGHT CREWS SWPC ENSURES UAL HAS TIMELY INFORMATION

ON SITE METEOROLOGISTS ALSO MONITOR SWPC WEBSITES AND MAINTAIN CONTACT WITH THE SWPC FOR EN ROUTE

16 JANUARY EVENT FLIGHTS OPERATED ON LESS THAN OPTIMUM POLAR ROUTES OR OPERATED NON POLAR ROUTES DUE TO DISTURBANCES CAUSED BY SOLAR ACTIVITY. EN ROUTE TIME PENALTIES RANGED FROM 8 MINUTES TO 80 MINUTES

17 JANUARY EVENT 2005 CHICAGO TO HONG KONG FLIGHT MADE A STOP IN ANCHORAGE ON 4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS AS A RESULT OF THE INABILITY TO OPERATE ON POLAR ROUTINGS. THE SCHEDULE PENALTY RANGED FROM 180 MINUTES TO 210 MINUTES CHICAGO TO BEIJING FLIGHT SUSTAINED EN ROUTE PENALTIES RANGING FROM 18 MINUTES TO 55 MINUTES BEIJING TO CHICAGO FLIGHT SUSTAINED EN ROUTE PENALTIES RANGING FROM 55 MINUTES TO 80 MINUTES

THE SCHEDULE PENALTY RANGED FROM 180 MINUTES TO 210 MINUTES CHICAGO TO BEIJING FLIGHT SUSTAINED EN

18 SEPTEMBER EVENT 2005 CHICAGO TO HONG KONG FLIGHT MADE A STOP IN ANCHORAGE.THE SCHEDULE PENALTY WAS 180 MINUTES

19 DECEMBER EVENT 2006 CHICAGO TO HONG KONG FLIGHT MADE AN ANCHORAGE STOP ON TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS 5 OTHER FLIGHTS BOUND FOR ASIA FLEW LESS THAN OPTIMUM ROUTES AND/OR ALTITUDES

20 ECONOMIC IMPACT $250,000 USD? $300,000 USD? $400,000 USD? $500,000 USD?

21 23 FEBRUARY 2006 UNITED OPERATED 8 FLIGHTS ON POLAR ROUTINGS TO ASIA ORD-HKG (2) (B747) ORD-NRT (2) (B747,B777) ORD-PVG (B777) ORD-PEK (B777) ORD-KIX (B777) JFK-NRT (B777)

22 POLAR ROUTE USE 13 CARRIERS CURRENTLY OPERATING ON POLAR ROUTES UNITED ANTICIPATES MORE EASTBOUND OPERATIONS DURING SUMMER MONTHS

23 POLAR MOVEMENTS 2053 REPORTED MOVEMENTS IN REPORTED MOVEMENTS IN REPORTED MOVEMENTS IN ANTICIPATED MOVEMENTS FOR 2007 REFINEMENTS SOUGHT FOR OPERATIONAL ASPECTS

24 A DECADE AGO THERE WAS NO NEED OR REQUIREMENT FOR UNITED TO TAKE SPACE WEATHER INTO OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATION. TODAY, UNITED CLOSELY MONITORS SPACE WEATHER AND IS CONSTANTLY ENHANCING PROCEDURES TO MEET CRITERIA THAT RECENT RESEARCH AND DATA MANDATE. WHAT WILL THE NEXT DECADE BRING?

25 UNITED AIRLINES QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS?

26 UNITED AIRLINES THANK YOU!

Mitigating the Impacts of Space Weather on Aviation Operations

Mitigating the Impacts of Space Weather on Aviation Operations Rick Heuwinkel, Manager NextGen Aviation Weather Division Federal Aviation Administration Potential Impacts of Space Weather Aviation Communications