Cellulosic Ethanol Technology as Waste Management tool the Belize Potential

Transcription

1 CSEF Conferene topi: Waste Management New tehnologies an ommoities Cellulosi Ethanol Tehnolog as Waste Management tool the Belize Potential Ruben Contreras-Lisperguer 1 an Kevin e Cuba 1 1 Energ an Climate Change Mitigation Setion, Department for Sustainable Development, Organization of Amerian States, 1889 F Street NW, Washington DC, 20006, USA, T: , F: , E: rontreras@oas.org an/or keuba@oas.org Abstrat Waste is an inigenous energ rih soure that an be onverte into power or transport fuels ritiall important to buil resiliene in an age of global energ rises an volatile energ suppl an osts. Furthermore, the proper use an onversion of waste to generate energ is a suitable alternative to its umping at saturate lanfills, mitigating limate hange, reate new jobs, an aressing lan use management hallenges, espeiall in the agriultural an forestr setors. Therefore, fining an optimal solution for waste olletion, treatment an isposal in small eveloping states is inreasingl an important paraigm in sustainabilit. This applie researh onlues that proution of ellulosi ethanol (CE) erive from agriultural an forestr resiues an muniipal soli waste (MSW) in the near future will beome a suitable waste management tool an transport fuel proution alternative to suppl the omesti market in Belize with potential use as an export ommoit. 1. Introution Cellulosi ethanol is inreasingl being reognize b the global ommunit as one of the great promises an alternatives for the sustainable proution of ethanol as alternative transport fuel. Cellulosi ethanol an be use to reue a nation s epenen on volatile importe fossil fuels an bring about soio-eonomi evelopment with reue negative impat to the environment an reue ontribution to limate hange, while aressing inherent hallenges of isposal an management of waste. 1.1 Beon urrent biofuels The ritial ifferene of this tehnolog to the urrentl establishe biomass-to-liqui fuel sstems, as for instane the orn- an sugarane-base ethanol proution, is that ellulosi ethanol an be proue from a wie variet of biomass waste feestoks. These inlue agriultural plant wastes (e.g. orn stover, ereal straws, an sugarane bagasse), forest inustr wastes, organi wastes from inustrial proesses (e.g. sawust an paper pulp), the organi fration of muniipal soli waste, liqui waste originating from sewers an septi tanks an a wier range of alternative energ rops (non-foo rops) grown speifiall for fuel proution, suh as swithgrass. In other wors CE oes not ompete with foo prouts an brings ae-value to waste generate in multiple setors of the eonom. 1.2 Cellulosi ethanol potential A ke objetive of this stu was to ientif an haraterize feestok to assess the potential for ellulosi ethanol proution in Belize. The stu explores state-of-the-art tehnologies, their osts an availabilit. It also esribes a number of likel obstales that ma affet the potential evelopment of CE proution in Belize. Moreover, it aresses possible strategies to overome these hallenges through publi poli initiatives an market evelopment tools ensuring that ellulosi ethanol is proue in a sustainable manner in the long-term. 2. Methoolog The assessment of ellulosi ethanol proution potential in Belize inluing volume an ost ompetitiveness - was narrowe own b fousing in partiular on assessing the feestok availabilit, 1

2 its transportation an onversion into ellulosi ethanol b evaluating a variet of tehnologies. Via a simplisti biomass-to-ethanol onversion rate, the gross potential volume of ethanol is alulate to provie an initial piture of the sale of iel potential. Figure 1 Life-le of ellulosi ethanol Taking into aount that most ellulosi ethanol onversion tehnologies are in a pilot an preommerial sale this stu analze the tehnologial evelopment an prospets for the time frame of 2008 to Furthermore the long-term feestok suppl an ellulosi ethanol proution is assesse using the 5E assessment metho 1 that inlues the qualitative review of the following omponents to be taken in aount uring projet preparation i.e.: tehnolog evaluation (E1); energ effiien (E2); environmental impats (E3); eonomi viabilit (E4); an soio-politial an human resoure effetiveness (E5). Results of the 5E assessment are provie generiall for bio- an thermohemial onversion tehnolog ategories where suitable ata was foun to perform suh an assessment. 2.1 Feestok ientifiation an suppl The available feestok for potential onversion into ellulosi ethanol was assesse b looking at the urrent amounts of organi waste, forest an rops resiues available in relate sub-setors of the eonom in Belize. Due to the varing harateristis of these setors, ifferent methoologies were applie to eah to ientif an quantif waste materials or resiues. During a tehnial mission to Belize in August of 2008 aitional ata was gathere an verifie with loal experts Potential sustainable harvestable Agriultural-Resiues A seletion of the most important agriultural ommoities was mae. This was one b eriving information from the national rop statistis atabase publishe b the Unite Nations Foo an Agriultural Organization (FAO) in their Proution Year Book an their Agro-MAPS Global Spatial Database of Agriultural Lan-use Statistis. 2, 3 The information from these soures was ombine with ata gathere in Belize from interviews with several authorities an stakeholers relate to the agriultural setor. This was followe b etermining the gross quantities of r matter of various resiues b rop tpe within the agriultural setor in Belize. The following steps were taken: (1) The total agriultural proution per ear was assesse from ata revealing proution levels for the ears 2004 an The amount of proution was erive from the annual report of the Ministr of Agriulture & Fisheries 2005 (aquire uring an in-ountr assessment mission in Belize, August 1 Dennis Shuetzle, Gregor Tambln an Freerik Tornatore, TSS Consultants, Alohol Fuels from Biomass Assessment of Proution Tehnologies, 2 Unite Nations Foo an Agriultural Organization, FAO Agro-Maps; 3 Unite Nations Foo an Agriultural Organization (FAO), website: 2

3 2008); (2) The ultivation ativities per rop b istrit were etermine base on the areas loations an sizes esribe in the FAO Agro-maps v.2.5; (3) Furthermore a Resiue to Prout Ratio (RPR) 4 was use to etermine the iel of rop resiue from the agriultural prouts, as well as omposition, lower moisture ontent an ash ontent. The total amount of resiues per rop ( R ) was erive via the following equation 1: A A 2005 R fp = C fr 2 (Eq. 1) Where A is the amount of total rops proution (ton ) an Resiue to Prout Ratio (a-imensional). fp C fr is the resiue fator per rop or (4) Fators for alulating realisti an sustainable amounts of extratable resiues from farm lans to proue CE are numerous an beon the sope of this stu. However, until better ata is available, a onservative rate of 60% is use for the total amount of resiues sustainabl extrate from the agriultural lans. 5 (5) As part of a 10-ear strategi plan, Belize Sugar Inustr is onsiering onstruting a istiller for the proution of ehrate ethanol using its molasses. Within this ontext, bagasse an molasses ma not be available soures to proue ethanol in Belize. (6) Finall, aounting for these limiting fators a more realisti an sustainable amount of potential harvestable resiues originating from the agriultural setor for CE proution is etermine Potential sustainable harvestable Forestr-Resiues To etermine the harvestable forestr resiues the setor s struture was investigate looking at the main lumber inustries an their waste proution levels in partiular logging an saw-milling resiues. Sine thinning epens on a wie range of fators, as among others planting ensit, speies, age an loation that var onsierabl per region it is iffiult to assess the resiues volumes. However, the national forestr statistis publishe in the FAO Proution Year Book in ombination with the information gathere from interviews at the Forestr Department were use to estimate the urrent amount of forestr resiues available for ellulosi ethanol proution. A fous was set at Logging Resiues Reover rates (LRR) an saw-milling resiues. LRR rates are logging resiues onsisting of branhes, leaves, lops, tops, amage or unwante stem woo, suh resiues are often left in the forests. A onservative LRR reover rate of 40% was use in this stu. Saw-milling resiues availabilit epens on the milling proess, the loal praties as well as woo speies. After a etaile analsis of the various milling stages that generate several b- or waste prouts as bark, slabs, egings, trimmings, sawust an planer shavings a milling resiue iel fator of 50% is use, ompose of 38% soli woo an 12% sawust. To alulate the potential amount of harvestable forestr resiues in tons, the following steps were taken: (1) The total amount of roun woo ompose of the sum of logge Fuel woo an Inustrial roun woo was estimate via a balane of volume of proution b speies. 6 See Figure 2 for a shemati overview of the balane of volume. 7 4 Contreras, R. an De Cuba, K., Feasibilit Stu on the Cellulosi Ethanol Market Potential in Belize, Annex 11.5, page 96-98, Department of Sustainable Development, Organization of Amerian States (OAS), Marh 2009, Washington, D.C., USA. 5 Aoring with the U.S. National Resoure Conservation Servie, a minimum of 30% over b resiues on the fiel is require for sustainable agriultural pratie. 6 Conversion fator, soures; 7 Latin Amerian Forestr Setor Outlook Stu, Working Paper, National Report Belize,

4 Total L o gg in g in Beliz e T otal R ounwoo (18 8,000 m3) Logging Resiues (40%) Fuel Woo (126,000 m 3) Inus trial Rounw oo (62,000 m 3) Com mer ial Lum ber Sawmill Resiues(50%) (31,000 m3) Figure 2 Volumes of logge woo in Belize The total volume of roun woo, ientifie for the ear was the sum of 62,000 ubi meters of Inustrial roun woo 9 an 126,000 ubi meters as Fuel woo. During the milling proess about 50 perent of the Inustrial roun woo remains as a resiue. This sawmill resiue mathes a total volume of 31,000 ubi meters. (2) One the relative resiues from general logging ativities were etermine, the relative ontribution to the overall woo proution b speies was assesse. (3) Furthermore the volume of woo was onverte into mass expresse in r tons b using the ensit (kg/m 3 ) per speies logge in Belize. (4) The National Forestr Report of Belize 10 notes that a sustainable rate of inustrial roun woo is approximatel 10,000 to 12,000 ubi meters per ear. Base on these onitions, the amount of resiues generate b logging ativities is about 92,000 ubi meters. Aoring to these amounts, onsiere sustainable, the sustainable potential CE iel was alulate Potential organi waste from MSW The total amount of organi waste as feestok for the ellulosi ethanol sstem is iffiult to measure in the Belizean ontext. This is beause there has been limite monitoring of generate Muniipal Soli Waste (MSW) in ities an other urban settings. To estimate the available amount of soli organi waste, an attempt was mae to etermine the waste quantit an omposition. As an a-ho solution to the limite information available, the following metho was use: (1) Waste statistis ata were ollete from reports provie b the National Soli Waste Management Projet an the Central Statistial Offie of Belize (CSO) 11 for the ear One report highlighte that the average proution of waste was aroun 1.69 kg/person/a. Current researh 12 verifie this average amount of waste per apita/a. (2) Interviews were hel with offiials from the Ministr of Natural Resoures an Environment that inlue Waste Management as one of their manates. Aoring to information provie b the Ministr, it is estimate that Belize in 2006 proue over 200,000 tons of soli waste annuall from omesti househols an ommerial 8 This was the onl available reporte ata. 9 Inustrial roun woo, as efine in FAO Forest Prouts Yearbook, inlues all inustrial woo in the rough (saw logs an veneer logs, pulpwoo an other inustrial roun woo). 10 Latin Amerian Forestr Setor Outlook Stu, National Report Belize, Prepare b the Belize Forest Department (2004); 11 National Soli Waste Management Projet, 199 an the Central Statistial Offie of Belize (CSO) in 2002; soure: NATIONAL ASSESSMENT REPORT for Barbaos +10, Government of Belize September visite 09 June Lewis, G. (2008), Analzing the potential of utilizing the Methane emissions from the Western Corrior Waste Lanfill sites for eletrial energ generation; 4

5 establishments. 13 (3) Sine no upate information exists onerning the omposition of the waste, the waste omposition ata ate from 1997 was use. The omposition of the soli waste was ominate b paper (20%) an organi waste (60%) thus representing an organi waste fration of 80%. Those are ata onsistent with eonomies with high epenen on the agriultural setor. (4) The agriultural setor is urrentl the seon most import setor in the Belizean eonom an the amount of plasti has probabl inrease in the last eae, ue to hanges in importe prouts an in onsumption patterns triggere b eonomi evelopment. A regional stu performe in 2003 onfirme that organi waste remains high in the region an aounts for 30 to 60 perent of the MSW in most Caribbean an Latin Amerian ountries. 14 In the Belizean ontext, it was eie to use an organi waste fration of 80%. (5) Due to feestok requirements, onl the thermo-hemial proess is apable of onverting organi MSW into ellulosi ethanol. (6) To explore the potential MSW generation in the near future ( ) a linear regression analsis was evelope. The ata onsiste of per apita ail waste generation rate for Belize (1.7 Kg/person/a) an population growth estimates from the Statistial Institute of Belize (the meium variant projetion was use) Feestok suppl an osts In the Belize ontext, the lassi eonometri tools are not useful for estimating the suppl ost of resiues beause urrentl there is no existing formal market for the resiues materials or prouts an therefore prie ata is not available. Nevertheless ata from the Ministr of Agriulture & Fisheries an FAO 2004 are use as a baseline. In this stu, an attempt is mae to estimate the ost of potential harvestable resiues from the fiels an from inustrial proessing. Of whih the osts of the former are influene b; first, the ost of harvesting resiue an seon, the transport rate an ensit of available resiues to be elivere to the proessing plant. Using the maps evelope b the Foo an Agriulture Organization of the Unite Nations (FAO) 16 an a map of the prinipal roas of Belize, it was possible to estimate the istane between the prinipal roas an loation of permanent rops. 17 Figure 3 Map of Agro-ativities in Belize In orer to assess the potential total ost of resiues, the next methoolog was use: (1) Assessing the Critial Distane - The transportation osts of the feestok inreases with fator apait beause greater istanes are to be travele to guarantee supplies. Base on this assumption, the relationship between istane from a ellulosi ethanol plant ( ) an available resiues supplies ( S ra ) of one rop an be efine b: 2 S = ( π ) R C (Eq. 2) ra (Eq. represents the prout of the area of a irle of raius, an the ensit of resiue b the prout of R C. Resiue ensit is the prout of the resiue iel ( R ) an the ensit of plante rops in 13 Albert Rohes, Soli Waste Management Present State in Belize International Development Researh Centre, 2003, Reling Organi. Wastes Statistial Institute of Belize (2007), 16 FAO Countr Profiles an Mapping Information Sstem; visite 12 June This is neessar beause it is generall less expensive to proue ethanol lose to the feestok suppl. 5

6 the total area ( C ). For example, in a region that proues rie, the amount of plante hetares per km 2 is C = 130 Ha of rop per km 2. Base in the RPR, it is possible to know the amount of resiue per Ha of rop, where in this example it is, the ensit of resiue, i.e. C R = 4 tons of resiue per Ha, then the prout of R an C give R =520 tons/ 2 km. The ensit of resiue is alulate onl for the feestok that is generate in the fiel or is epose in a lan/fiel. (2) If S ~ a is establishe as the potential apait of a proessing plant, the maximum istane between feestok an plant require an be obtaine b re-arranging (Eq. 3) as follows: max = ~ S ra /( πr C ) (Eq. 3) The relationship between the ost of feestok transportation an istane from the proessing plant to the feestok is efine b the raius of the irle; this raius represents the istane between the rop an the plant. Also, the proution apait of the plant epens on the ensit of resiues. For this stu, the transport ost estimates are speifie using plausible biomass plant apaities ( S ~ ra = tons of resiue per ear (whih oul be onsiere a meium size CE plant)) an the ensit onitions for all available feestok ( ( R ), where i refers to ifferent tpes of rop resiues in Belize). C i (3) Assessing the Harvesting Cost - Assuming that the harvesting of the resiue is one manuall (highl true in Belize s ase), the harvesting ost of resiues ( H ) is estimate b iviing the ail remuneration rate of labor (R) (expresse in US $ per a), b the harvesting apait ( H ap ) (in tons per a). In this researh, the harvesting ost has been alulate for maize stalks, husk an ob onl, beause the other resiues o not require a separate harvesting. The expression is: H = R H ap (Eq. 4) (4) Assessing the Colletion Cost - The resiues are require to be ollete from ifferent points on the farm before transportation. The ost of olletion is relate with the wage rate an time use in the olletion. The Colletion Cost ( C ) oul be alulate b iviing the ail wage ost or remuneration (R) b the arring apait in tons per trip ( C ap. ) an the numbers of trips mae b a person per a (n). R C = ( C n) (Eq. 5) ap (5) Assessing the Transportation Cost - The main fators influening the istribution between farm osts an elivere plant osts are the ensit of resiue, the apait of proessing plants, an loal truk-hauling rates. It is important to aount for loal variation of transport osts. The transportation ost ( T ) was estimate, base on the fuel onsumption (Fons) of the truk per hour of operation, the ost of fuel (Cfuel), the river s remuneration per hour ( R ), the istane of transportation (), the 6

7 arring apait of the trator ( Tr assumptions are mae for a stanar ump truk. T = max ( F ( Tr ap S ) ap (Eq. 6) ) an the transportation spee in km/h ( S t ). In this researh, the (6) Assessing the Total Cost - The total ost of the agriultural resiues ( TT os t equations esribe above: TT = H + C + T (Eq. 7) os t ons C fuel + R ) is the sum of the The storage ost oul be onsiere as part of the first apital investe, to prevent ost generate b a rental of a spae or ost to over the feestok to protet from rain. In this preliminar analsis, the ontribution of storage ost to the total ost oul be assume negligible Cellulosi Ethanol Yiel an Costs The ellulosi ethanol iel potential an the proution osts are etermine base on the available feestok an its sustainable harvesting, taking in min the 5E evaluation tool, in Belize. The iel potential is erive from literature an researh stuies 19, 20. The CE proution ost is etermine b a etaile analsis of the ost of feestok suppl uner Belizean onitions as ritial input next to the theoretial onversion osts foun in literature Potential Sustainable Cellulosi Ethanol iel After etermining the availabilit an harateristis of feestok originating from agriultural an forestr resiues an organi waste from MSW, the ellulosi ethanol iel is estimate base on theoretial onversion effiien range base on literature review. The range of CE iel mainl varies b tehnolog an feestok. The following steps were taken to etermine the potential ellulosi ethanol iel range per sub-tehnolog (thermo-hemial an biohemial). (1) First the theoretial iel (gallons/r ton) per feestok tpe is ollete ranging from forest resiues to paper mill sluge. (2) In orer to assess the ellulosi ethanol iel potential (in gallons per ear) two senarios are ompose esribing a onservative, lower-en urrent an future (2012) senario, an an optimal urrent an future (2012) projetion in ethanol iel per sub-tehnolog. The results are foun in table 1 below. Conversion Tehnolog t ) Table 1 Theoretial ethanol iels for the Conservative an Optimal Senarios Tehnolog Ethanol Yiel (gal/r metri ton) 2012 Tehnolog a. Theoretial Conservative Ethanol Yiel Senario (gal/r metri ton) 2012 Tehnolog b. Theoretial Optimal Ethanol Yiel Senario (gal/r metri ton) Biohemial Conversion Thermo-hemial Conversion Contreras, R., e Cuba, K. (2009), Feasibilit Stu on the Cellulosi Ethanol Market Potential in Belize, Organization of Amerian States, Washington, DC. p Unite States National Renewable Energ Laborator, see for more information: Davi D. Hsu, Jul 1, Oregon Cellulose Ethanol Stu: 21 Ibi. 19 an 19 7

8 2.2.2 Potential Sustainable Cellulosi Ethanol Costs The estimation is mae of the proution ost per sub-tehnolog base on literature review of CE onversion tehnologies Results Results from the resoure assessment iniate that more than 1.3 million tons of ellulose feestok oul be proue base on 2004 an 2005 feestok amounts. If all the available materials are ollete, Belize has the potential to proue in the range of million gallons of ethanol per ear from ellulosi biomass feestok when onsiering the appliation of thermo-hemial an biohemial onversion proesses. This potential was sope own when appling the 5E metho with the objetive of ahieving sustainable harvesting an olletion rates Cellulosi Ethanol Proution volume The ellulosi biomass feestok was assesse for the agriultural, forestr an MSW setors where agriultural resiues were sub-ategorize in feestok originating from the fiels an from inustrial proessing. A total amount of approximatel 557, ,469 MT an be sustainabl harveste or ollete originating from both the lans an at the proessing plants, this an lea to Mgal/ (biohemial) an Mgal/ 24 (thermo-hemial) in 2012; see Figure 4 for results. Cellulosi Ethanol Yiel (thousan US gallons per ear) Projete inrease of MSW 2008 Conservative 2012 Optimal Conservative 2012 Optimal 2012 MSW Forest Resiues Agriultural resiues from Inustrial Proessing Agriultural resiues harvestable in the fiel Biohemial Conversion Thermohemial Conversion Figure 4 Cellulosi ethanol iels through Biohemial an Thermo-hemial onversions in 2008 an 2012 (onservative an optimal senarios) b tpe of feestok inluing projete inrease of MSW 3.2 Cellulosi Ethanol Proution osts Figure 5 shows the proution ost b tehnolog, where CE proution ost in Belize will range between US$ per gallon. The CE proution ost via the thermo-hemial proess has a range of US$ per gallon uner Belizean onitions an is the heapest among the two onversion proesses. Note, that the apital an operational osts are kept stati in this stu, where onl the feestok ost has been aapte to Belizean onitions. The tehnolog evelopment (learning urve via R&D ativities) will etermine the rate of inrease effiien, available unit apait, an potential apital investment ost reutions. 22 Contreras, R., e Cuba, K. (2009), Feasibilit Stu on the Cellulosi Ethanol Market Potential in Belize, Organization of Amerian States, Washington, DC. p Ibi.22, p This higher en range is ue to use of projete inrease of MSW in Belize. 8

9 Figure 5 Cost breakown omparison between Belize (error bars for unertaint in feestok osts) an literature reporte CE proution osts vs. Gasoline NYC international spot pries (average value from ; unertaint range represents the lowest an highest values in the market in the last 5 ears) 4. Disussion Feestok availabilit It is important to istinguish between resiues generate in the fiel an those generate uring the proessing phase. The reason for this is that it ma be assume that in the latter ase, resiues are more easil onentrate, whih will make it easier for isposal or olletion. On the other han, resiues sprea over large areas, in suh ases as straw, stalks an leaves are onentrate generall in smaller quantities. It must be note that, agriultural proution has been hanging with time. This is ue to usage of ifferent farming tehniques an the lasting impats of natural isasters. In this researh the latest information available orrespons to the agriultural average proution ata from ears 2004 an This highlights the nee for further assessment an ata olletion. Cellulosi ethanol proution ost projetions These estimates for the CE proution osts for 2012 shoul be onsiere ver preliminar as it is extremel iffiult to preit the osts for an emerging tehnolog. These figures are offere to give an iea of the possible range of osts for proution assuming that the tehnolog evelopment proess ours as preite. Table 3 Cost omparison of Sustainable CE proution ost in Belize an urrent CE proution osts aoring to ifferent assessments (Conservative an Optimal Senarios) CE Biohemial in Belize Senario (2012) CE Biohemial in Belize Senario (2012) CE Thermo-hemial in Belize Senario (2012) Conservative US$ US$ US$ Optimal US$ US$ US$ Keith Collins, Chief Eonomist, USDA, The New Worl of Biofuels: Impliations for Agriulture an Energ, EIA Energ Outlook, Moeling, an Data Conferene, Marh 28, Gil Jakson (2007), Offie of the Biomass Program. Retrieve September 20, 2008 from; 9

10 Aoring to soures use in this stu, the ost for ellulosi ethanol proution is expete to fall between 2008 an 2012 b 53% for the biohemial approah an b 35% for the thermo-hemial approah. 5. Conlusions Thermo-hemial onversion tehnolog has the best potential for ellulosi ethanol proution in Belize. This onlusion is base on the tpe an quantit of feestok foun in Belize an the urrent ost of this tehnolog, expeting in the near future (2012) further reutions in ost. In reviewing the likel onversion tehnologies, the stu iniates that biohemial onversion proesses that utilize enzmati hrolsis of lignoelluloses, followe b fermentation of the simple sugars, woul urrentl have the potential for prouing ethanol in Belize at approximatel US$ $2.89 per gallon. In the ase of suh an approah, the amount of feestok for a tpial plant exees the urrent amount of feestok available in Belize (over 2000 r tons/a). Base on this information, a biohemial approah appears most appliable where large volumes of a biomass feestok of onsistent qualit are available. Examples inlue urrent orn an sugarane ethanol an where onventional ethanol failities alrea exist an using biohemial tehnologies. However, the assessment iniates that urrent state-of-the-art thermo-hemial tehnolog will be apable of prouing ethanol from the ellulosi biomass of Belize using 1,400-1,700 r tons (DT) per a of biomass at a proution ost of about US$ per gallon an the ethanol ost base on ellulosi feestok is approximatel US$1.64 $2.17 per gallon in the near term with further ost reutions of US$ per gallon expete as the tehnolog matures b 2012 an beon. It is estimate that approximatel 46 million gallons of ethanol oul be proue annuall given the state of the tehnolog toa. With expete tehnologial improvements, that number ma inrease to 93 million gallons per ear. Belize urrentl onsumes about 12.5 million gallons of gasoline per ear for transportation. Thus, if one assumes that ethanol is blene with gasoline at 10%, approximatel 1.2 million gallons woul be require per ear. Even if flex fuel vehiles replae the entire vehile fleet, no more than 12 million gallons of ethanol woul be require loall. Therefore, it is lear that Belize has the potential to meet all of its omesti eman for ethanol an export onsierabl more than this amount, base on its available feestok for ellulosi ethanol proution. The ompetitiveness of suh evelopment will epen on the ontinue improvements in proution tehnolog an the prevailing prie of gasoline. Even as toa s relativel low ost of gasoline (US$1.80 to 1.95/gallon) 28 an the immature status of the tehnolog (prouing ethanol at US$1.64 to 2.17/gallon) ellulosi ethanol offers great promise for proution in Belize. At this stage it is reommene to artiulate National Energ Priorities via a National Energ Poli an/or Sustainable Energ Plan, reate appropriate Energ Setor Governane Mehanisms, establish environmental an sustainabilit guielines for biofuels, establish environmental an soio-eonomi evaluation riteria to guarantee evelopment of a sustainable CE market. 27 Thermo-hemial Conversion Roamap Workshop, Januar 9-10, 2007 Marriott at Metro Center. Retrieve Otober 13, 2008 from; values 10