Caspian Transit Corridor Hazar Transit Koridoru

Transcription

1 Caspian Transit Corridor Hazar Transit Koridoru Dr. Zafer Acar Seray Özkan Caspian Transit Corridor Program Report Hazar Transit Koridoru Programı Raporu August / Ağustos 2015 RAPORUN TÜRKÇESİ İKİNCİ BÖLÜMDEDİR.

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3 Caspian Transit Corridor Assoc. Prof. A. Zafer Acar Seray Özkan Caspian Strategy Institute Center on Energy and Economy Caspian Transit Corridor Program Report August 2015

4 Caspian Transit Corridor Program under the Caspian Strategy Institute Center on Energy and Economy aims to conduct research about Turkey s potential to become a transit corridor linking Central Asia and Far East to Europe. Besides, the program ensures collaboration with international institutions and organizations working in the field of transportation in Asia and Europe. Publisher Caspian Strategy Institute ISBN Authors Assoc. Prof. A. Zafer Acar Seray Özkan Graphic Design Hülya Çetinok Mailing Adress Veko Giz Plaza, Maslak Meydan Sok., No:3 Kat:4 Daire:11-12 Maslak, Sarıyer - İstanbul - TÜRKİYE Telephone Fax Web 2

5 Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...8 INTRODUCTION...11 METHODOLOGY LOGISTICS AND TRANSPORTATION Logistics Current Trends in Logistics and Transportation Globalization Technological Advances after Industrialization Increasing Product Range and Shortening Product Life Cycles Disruption of Value Chains in Production Systems and International Trade Logistic Activities Transport Storage Material Handling The Role of Logistics in National and Global Economies MAIN TRANSPORT CORRIDORS BETWEEN ASIA AND EUROPE Trans-European Transport Networks (TEN-T) TRACECA (Transport Corridors Europe-Caucasus-Asia) Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Corridors Silk Road Transport Corridors North Corridor South Corridor Middle Corridor TRANSPORT IN THE MIDDLE CORRIDOR The Route s Impacts on the Economies of Regional Countries Foreign Trade Between Regional Countries Transport Between Turkey and Regional Countries Comparing the Logistics Performances of Countries Located on the Route Transport Routes and Capacities Along the Middle Corridor Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) Railway Project Anaklia-Georgia Deep-Sea Port Project Caspian Transits Assessment of the Routes on the Middle Corridor Comparing Alternative Corridors SWOT (STRENGTHS, WEAKNESSES, OPPORTUNITIES, THREATS) ANALYSIS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

6 4.1. General Legislation Road Transport Tolls and Quotas Driver Visas Customs Gates High Penalties Rail Transport and Baku-Tbilisi-Kars Railway Project Caspian Sea Transits Logistic Bases Cooperation Between All Parties and Shareholders...50 CONCLUDING REMARKS...52 List of Tables, Charts and Figures Table 1: Share of countries in world trade according to their service exports in Table 2: Share of countries in world trade according to their service imports in Table 3: Two-way haulage from Turkey to Georgia...32 Table 4: Two-way haulage from Georgia to Turkey...32 Table 5: Two-way haulage from Turkey to Azerbaijan...32 Table 6: Two-way haulage from Azerbaijan to Turkey...33 Table 7: Two-way haulage from Turkey to Turkmenistan...33 Table 8: Two-way haulage from Turkmenistan to Turkey...33 Table 9: Two-way haulage from Turkey to Kazakhstan...33 Table 10: Two-way haulage from Kazakhstan to Turkey...34 Table 11: Two-way haulage from Turkey to Iran...34 Table 12: Transit Passage of Vehicles with Turkish License Plates through the Iranian Borders...34 Table 13: Railway Transport with Regional Countries...35 Table 14: Comparison of Logistics Performances of Countries on the Route with the Countries Having the Top Performances...36 Table 15: Comparison of Logistics Infrastructure Performances of Countries on the Route with the Countries Having the Top Performances...36 Table 16: North Corridor...44 Table 17: South Corridor...44 Table 18: Middle Corridor...45 Chart 1: Turkey s Export to Central Asian Countries (Million $)...30 Chart 2: Turkey s Imports from Central Asian Countries (Million $)...30 Chart 3: Distribution of Turkey s Export Transports...31 Chart 4: Cargo Handling Capacity of the Aktau Port Figure 1: TEN-T...24 Figure 2: TRACECA...26 Figure 3: CAREC Projects by Corridors...27 Figure 4: Baku-Tbilisi-Kars Railway Project...37 Figure 5: Port of Baku, Final Phase...39

7 Caspian Transit Corridor About the Authors Assoc. Prof. A. Zafer Acar was born in 1965, Istanbul. His military career started in the Kuleli Military High School, and ended in 2008 when he retired as a colonel. Acar s academic education began at the Gebze Institute of High Technology. He completed his graduate education in 2004 with a thesis on the growth strategies of businesses, and received his doctoral degree in 2008 with a dissertation on competition strategies and business competences. Besides, in parallel to his professional specialty in Turkish Armed Forces, he wrote another master thesis on logistics at Beykent University. A. Zafer Acar has majored in logistics, supply chain management and strategic management; he has two books and several articles published in international journals. A. Zafer Acar worked at Okan University from 2008 to Since July 2015, he serves as the Head of International Logistics and Transportation Department at the Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Piri Reis University. Seray Özkan was born in 1989, Bursa. After completing her studies in Bursa Anatolian High School between 2003 and 2007, she started her undergraduate education in Bogazici University Department of Political Science and International Relations in During her education, she went to Italy Universita degli Studi di Genova as an Erasmus exchange student in the spring term of the 2011 academic year. Özkan completed her education with the Honor Certificate in She continues her graduate education in Bogazici University Department of International Relations on Turkey, Europe and Middle East Studies. Seray Özkan is currently working at HASEN Center on Energy and Economy Caspian Transit Corridor Program as researcher. She is fluent in English, intermediate in Italian and beginner in Russian and Spanish languages. 5

8 Caspian Transit Corridor Foreword We, as the regulating authority for the transportation sector, are well aware that international transportation and logistics play a key role in bilateral and multilateral economic relations that Turkey desires to establish as part of 2023 goals. As a result of this awareness and desire, we attach great importance to Turkey s ability to offer transportation services at the global level. Therefore, we underline Turkey s commitment to become a logistic hub in all our activities. We clearly know that reaching those goals will lead to a greater share of the transportation sector in our national income. Considering our geopolitical location as well as today s political, cultural and economic relations, we observe that Caucasus and Central Asia come to the fore in Turkey s transportation sector. This geography is highly important on the grounds of the fact that center of gravity of global trade has shifted to Asia, and developing Asian countries constitute a key route for transportation which is a sine qua non for trade. The Caspian Sea is fairly the heart of this significant geography. In consideration of abovementioned aspects, we infer that transportation via the Caspian Sea should be carried out rigorously and in a certain order. This inference leads the way for increasing the efficiency of our current and future works. The Workshop on Caspian Transits was organized within the scope of these necessities, and it proved beneficial for gathering all studies that have been conducted about the Caspian Region so far, and for creating academic data in this regard. At the workshop held early May by the coordination of the Directorate General under the Ministry of Transportation, statistical and economic data was put forward about the route and assessments were made with the participation of sector stakeholders about Caspian Transits. A report was published after the workshop, focusing on Central Asia s opportunity to become a transit country for linking the great Chinese market to Europe and giving information about current and planned projects. When today s competition terms are considered, the shortest and lowest-cost route for transporting goods from Asia to Europe would run through Turkey when ongoing projects are completed. Under these conditions, Caspian Transits and the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars Railway Project regarded as a significant route between Asia and Europe gain an undisputed importance. Revival of the route which was previously called the Silk Road comes to the fore as a crucial development. In this regard, this work s primary objective is to become a data source. The work aims to give information about the progress made for the revival and active operation of the Silk Road, and which states have contributed to this progress. Developments in this region, where political, strategic, social and economic dynamics are constantly changing, are analyzed; and key issues for the Caspian Region are discussed in this work. We hope the report will be beneficial for every reader 6 Bekir Gezer Director General Directorate General of Foreign Affairs and European Union Relations Ministry of Transportation, Maritime Affairs and Communication

9 Caspian Transit Corridor Foreword For most of the human history, it took months or years for any news to be heard by others in a different part of the world. Now, that is clearly no longer the case. Challenges spread faster than opportunities. The world faces various economic and political challenges and opportunities. The West s economic downturn in 2008, shale gas revolution of the United States, the recent fluctuations in currencies, drop in the oil prices, conflicts in the Middle East are just some of them. Each challenge -domestic or international- creates an opportunity at a different level. While one thrives, another hurts. On the other side, there are Must-Take Steps with neighbors for the common good of the broader region. Revival of the Silk Road through the Caspian Transit Corridor is a vision, which every state will benefit from. What makes corridor such a critical focus is that it is the most feasible route. Not only the global sellers and buyers, but also the regional countries will be the beneficiaries of the Corridor. Caspian countries have rich hydro-carbon reserves. They attract more international investments while building stronger regional links with neighbors by building railways and energy pipelines. Caspian countries are growing and becoming more active in transport projects. Trans-Caspian train ferry service and rail transport has been improving. Kazakhstan, a landlocked state, is developing a merchant marine fleet and its vessels have been operating in the international waters. Azerbaijan s Port of Baku is converting Baku into a logistic hub. Turkmenistan is also building a high capacity port in Turkmenbashi and investing on marine vessels which operate at the Caspian Sea. When we look at the South Caucasus, Georgia and Azerbaijan have almost completed their section of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars Railway. Turkey has completed the Marmaray tunnel beneath the Bosphorus in Istanbul. On the other side, China -the factory of the world- has been transforming from an export-led economic model to a consumption-driven one. Such economic changes turn transportation patterns into a more complex form. While rail travel from London to Hong Kong becomes possible, infrastructural shortfalls, legal and administrative barriers on this route need to be removed. The only missing infrastructure portion of the Silk Road through the Caspian Corridor, Turkish section of Baku-Tbilisi-Kars Railway has to be completed as early as possible. This report is an outcome of a comprehensive field study on Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. The main goal of the study is to present the current situation and remarkable advantages of the Caspian Transit Corridor as well as to reveal existing problems to be solved. I would like to thank all partner institutions for their contributions and our experts who dedicated their time and efforts to write this report. We, Caspian Strategy Institute, hope this report will be beneficial and open new ways for further research and study along this route. Haldun Yavaş Secretary General of Caspian Strategy Instıtute 7

10 Caspian Transit Corridor EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Logistics and transportation have been the leading factors that facilitate trade relations through the ages. Infrastructure, tools, systems and operations related to these factors have developed in parallel with new and advanced technologies for the sake of humanity. Innovations and developments in transportation have concrete and intangible benefits such as the decrease in the duration and cost of operations, and increase in the efficiency and effectiveness of the personnel. Services provided through the infrastructure form the basis of economic activities. Developments in transportation act as a catalyzer for the mobility of goods and services. Lower costs and easier access to markets have several impacts at the sectoral, regional and national levels. The investments made in the transport infrastructure, one of the most important components of transportation, facilitate the mobility of traded goods. In this way, people find a chance to increase their living standards. The transport infrastructure is definitely an essential factor to realize main growth objectives such as urbanization, industrialization, increase in exports and sustainable economic growth. Various scientific studies conducted in different countries with different perspectives until today have revealed that there is a meaningful correlation among transport infrastructure expenditures, economic growth and international trade volumes. As the first infrastructure that comes to mind within the historical context, the Silk Road is the most favored transport network of ancient times. This highly long and complex road network contributed to the globalization of the world with its many advantages. The Silk Road which is mainly based on road transport or in other words the road section of the Silk Road- lost its importance as a result of the shift of the world s political center to the west, and new developments in maritime technologies which led to cheaper and higher-volume seaborne trade. Consequently the Silk Road sank into a deep sleep for many centuries but it started to revive when the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, new independent states emerged and China recorded a significant economic growth in the eastern part of the continent. However, Silk Road s role has not changed from the ancient times to the present. This role is to integrate Europe and Asia continents to allow the exchange of goods, cultures and beliefs. Located at the heart of the Silk Road, the Caspian Region has substantial oil and natural gas reserves and in geostrategic terms it constitutes the junction point of east-west and north-south main transport axes which links Europe to Asia. Accordingly, the region has always maintained its importance throughout history. Countries in the region focused on economic growth and increased their foreign trade volumes by using the advantages of the region. In this regard, those countries become a member to various international organizations in order to develop their trade relations not only in the Caspian Region but also with other countries. At the same time, they establish new organizations that will contribute to their strategic goals. Moreover, they ensure regional and global integration by making investments in transport infrastructures that will integrate modern, effective, efficient and various transport modes by using the funds they have created with the revenue obtained from the export of natural resources. The rise of Asian economies attracted the attention of other countries as well as multinational companies. Many companies, intending to benefit from emerging economic advantages, have turned China into a production and distribution base for the world trade by using the privileges offered by China. As a result, the center of trade has shifted towards the east. Previously the distribution system was mainly based on maritime transport; but the delays in the access to markets have gradually created a need to find an alternative to maritime transport although the unit cost is relatively low in maritime transport. On the other hand, production centers concentrated around the southeastern ports of China have shifted towards the western parts of the country due to increasing workforce costs in the region, environmental factors and the inclination about universal humanitarian values, with the aim of being closer to energy and natural resources to gain advantage in terms of resource dependency. Under these conditions, one of the most important policies for Eurasian countries has appeared as ensuring sustainable economic growth by developing the trade relations among Eurasian countries as well as with other countries. On the other hand, Europe s efforts to create a common market and expand its markets, and the intention of multinational companies operating in China to create faster and lower-cost distribution networks located Eurasia at the center of world trade strategies. Within the scope of the strategy developed in this regard, European countries decided to expand the transport networks which facilitate trade relations and consequently Asia-Europe transport corridors have been created. Upon the initiative of different countries and organizations, several international transport corridor projects have been realized one after another. 8 When we examine such projects in Europe, we observe that the EU focuses on three main network structures. These are Trans European Transport Networks (TEN-T), Pan European Corridors (PEC) and other regional transport networks. On the other hand, Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) corridors, which have

11 Caspian Transit Corridor been created by Central Asian countries, come to the fore as an important project that will develop the trade relations of Central Asian countries within the region and with other countries. TEN-T Program is composed of the projects realized on priority corridors in roads, railways and airways which have been developed for establishing transport connections and consolidating current lines in order to ensure economic growth and sustainability in European Union member states. The TEN-T strategy primarily focuses on integrating Eastern and Western EU member states in accordance with the EU enlargement policy. The Trans European Transport Networks will be developed to include the countries that have relations with the EU within the scope of the neighborhood policy following the completion of central network connectivity by Another vital transport corridor is constituted by the Transport Corridor Europe - Caucasus- Asia (TRACECA) where Turkey is an active member. TRACECA is an intergovernmental program focusing on international transport, development and political-economic growth in the Black Sea, Caucasus and Central Asia. It is an international transport organization that supplements the Pan-European Transport Networks. Main objective of the project is to create a transport corridor between Europe, Black Sea, Caucasus, Caspian Sea and Central Asia by the help of EU funds and technical assistance under the leadership of the European Union. TRACECA, designed as a regional transport network, is planned to be integrated into Trans-European Networks in accordance with the global European Union strategies. In this framework, the project ushers in the connection of roads and railways following the Almaty-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan route on the Ancient Silk Road, to Georgia s Poti and Batumi ports through the Caspian Sea and Azerbaijan, and to Pan-European Corridors via the seaway through Ukrainian, Romanian and Bulgarian ports. Among regional transport corridors, CAREC program corridors are important as a project realized by the countries in the Caspian Region with the support of the Asian Development Bank. Within the CAREC program, various main transport corridors are designed to foster the connectivity of the region with Europe and other regions in the world in the shortest and most cost-efficient way. Each of these corridors is planned to provide access to at least two major Central Asian markets. These corridors are chosen on the basis of; (1) current traffic volume, (2) economic and traffic growth projections, (3) capacity to improve the relation between the settlements and economy, (4) potential to minimize delays and other obstacles, and (5) economic and financial sustainability. Eurasia transport corridors linking the Asian and European continents, also known as the Silk Road, are mainly divided into three sections (north, central and south) considering the geographical and economic conditions. Among these corridors, the Caspian Transit Corridor (the Middle Corridor) is one of the most important components of the Modern Silk Road which extends from the western part of China to Kazakhstan (mostly by the railroad), Azerbaijan (crossing the Caspian Sea), Georgia (through the Caucasus), Turkey and Western Europe. One section of the line reaches up to Turkmenistan s Turkmenbashi Port from Baku, and then it is linked to China through Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. This line allows the efficient use of Baku, Aktau and Turkmenbashi ports for maritime transport, and it integrates them to intermodal transport. On the other hand, the logistics and transport activities in countries surrounding the Caspian Sea must be developed for more efficient and effective operation of this line. The Caspian Transit Corridor gains more importance every day as a prominent alternative with the investments made in the ports (Aktau, Kuryk, Turkmenbashi, Alat) and railways of the countries in the region. One of the most crucial steps to develop the non-oil sectors of regional countries is to improve the transport infrastructure and diversify the import-export of goods. If the Caspian Transit Corridor is actively used for these purposes, Central Asian countries may gain economic advantages from the Europe-China trade traffic. Logistic centers and free trade areas to be created particularly in Turkmenistan s Turkmenbashi port, Kazakhstan s Kuryk port being constructed in the south of the current Aktau port, and Azerbaijan s new Alat port where first phase construction works have been completed, will allow the transit of new supply chains through the region on the Europe-Asia route. This report is the output of the efforts to ensure the overall development and integration of regional countries upon the abovementioned reasons. For this purpose, current trade volume and the development potential among regional countries have been revealed, and the existence of necessary logistics and trade infrastructure for the mobility of goods to emerge from this trade volume have been questioned. At this point, logistics performance of those countries has been examined particularly in terms of infrastructure and then the current status of transportation in the Caspian Region was presented in a time and cost oriented manner; problems (if any) and areas to be developed were emphasized. Information received from official sources and the data obtained during field visits and official interviews were used in these analyses. The results were then summarized via the Strengths, Weaknesses, 9

12 Caspian Transit Corridor Opportunities, Threats (SWOT) Analysis. Consequently, policy recommendations were developed in light of the obtained data and carried out analyses. Within this framework, it is observed that regional countries are making various infrastructure investments to develop intraregional and global trade, and they have also passed new resolutions to facilitate trade. However, these efforts are generally made without any coordination among regional countries. Such a situation may lead to additional costs due to making unnecessary investments in the capacity planning and creating surplus. Therefore the Trans-Caspian Coordination Committee, which has been recently established among regional countries, must have an official structure to be able to develop common policies on environmental opportunities and threats. Moreover, economy and infrastructure problems and policies of Caspian countries must be jointly examined at the government level, considering the fact that logistics and transportation activities have a facilitating role on trade and increasing trade volume contributes to nations economies. For Turkey; the transport infrastructure has been developed and certain steps are being taken for the interconnection of domestic and international production and consumption centers as well as the integration of transport modes, in accordance with the from transport to logistics action plan which was introduced in the Tenth 5-Year Development Plan for the period between 2014 and In this scope, with the aim of improving international integration, Trans-European Transport Networks (TEN-T) have been realized to a great extent with the investments made in concrete projects that consolidate the connectivity of Caspian states and the Middle East. At the domestic level, divided road construction works have continued, high-speed rail lines have been put into operation, two major container port projects have been prioritized, and the number of domestic and international passengers and trip frequency have increased. The public-private cooperation model for financing the transport infrastructure has also been used for the construction of highways, tunnels and bridges in addition to the construction of airports and terminals. However, it is also observed that the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) Railway Project is still incomplete, which is a vital project for the integration of Caspian countries with Turkey, a country which is listed among the top 20 economies in the world and a key country not only in the east-west but also the north-south axis of Eurasia. When the project is completed, an uninterrupted and multimodal transport network will be created in the region, and the line will allow sustainable freight and passenger transport by railway between the Central Asia and Far East through Europe and Turkey-Georgia-Azerbaijan. Besides, the BTK Project will pave the way for regional cooperation. Considering the ongoing infrastructure works in the region, most of which will be completed by 2017; any delay in the realization of the BTK Project is believed to constitute a threat against Turkey s political and economic status in the region. 10

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14 CONTRIBUTORS / KATKIDA BULUNANLAR UND - UTIKAD INTERNATIONAL TURKIC ACADEMY KAZAKHSTAN RAILWAYS CASPIAN SHIPPING COMPANY BAKU INTERNATIONAL SEA TRADE PORT MINISTRY OF ECONOMY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF GEORGIA, TRANSPORT POLICY DEPARTMENT Maslak Meydan Sokak Veko Giz Plaza No: 3 Kat: 4 D: 10 Sarıyer, İstanbul, TÜRKİYE Tel: Fax: ISBN