Newsletter. for professionals. Welcome to the Rightmovedata Spring. New Partnership between Rightmove and Oxford Economics.

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1 Newsletter for professionals Volume 7 Issue 1 Page 1 - Intro & Rightmove & Oxford Economics Page 3 - New Features to the SCT Page 5 - The New Market Intelligence Report Page 6- Rental Property Basket Page 7- The Biggest Gets Even Bigger.. Welcome to the Rightmovedata Spring newsletter. There is plenty of innovative data development work underway here at Rightmove, which is previewed in this Newsletter. Please read on! Firstly, we have just released a beta version of a new product the Market Intelligence Report which allows the user to carry out an in-depth analysis of market activity, stock, prices, per sq. ft. values and other relevant analysis in a particular location and the surrounding area. This new on-line interactive service is currently being tested by a small number of clients, and we expect a wide take-up as it is released into our production environment in the second half of Secondly, we have signed a partnership agreement with Oxford Economics to create a series of highly granular, quarterly, House Price Forecasts based on Oxford s market leading forecasting products together with Rightmove s unparalleled housing market data and insight. The forecast products will be available to clients in the summer, and will power a totally new portfolio AVM product The Portfolio Outlook Model. Thirdly work continues apace on improvements to the Surveyor Comparable Tool, including a new Company Comparables function, improved handling and analysis of new homes comparables and enhanced data collection. Our list of clients continues to expand, and if any of these new products are relevant to your business please do not hesitate to get in touch. Alan Gearing Property Related Services Director Alan.gearing@rightmove. co.uk New Partnership between Rightmove and Oxford Economics Rightmove and Oxford Economics have signed an Agreement to collaborate in the production of a highly granular House Price Forecast data product, combining the expertise, experience and unrivaled data resources of the two organisations. This agreement follows a period of proof of concept work last year when Rightmove and Oxford brought together their data sets to identify the key economic drivers of house price growth at a localised rather

2 than national or regional level. The partnership agreement will give rise to two separate and distinctive best in class products: The Oxford House Price Forecast an Oxford Economics product, (powered by Rightmove), which will be aimed at a wide range of financial institutions, housing consultancy clients, house builders and other professionals who have a requirement for regularly updated and highly granular house price forecasts. The Rightmove Portfolio Outlook Model make bold a Rightmove product, (powered by Oxford Economics), which provides an enhanced portfolio AVM with property specific 5 year growth forecasts. The short term price forecasts will be further enhanced and fine-tuned by Rightmove derived supply and demand data and other factors reflecting actual estate agency performance data and the qualitative intelligence about market trends built from the individual valuation reports of more than 100,000 inspections every month, undertaken by Chartered Surveyors using the Rightmove SCT. Uniquely therefore, the Portfolio Outlook Model provides 5-year quarterly price forecasts for residential properties specific to individual postcode areas and property types. Some Background about Oxford s Global Economic Model The Global Economic Model facilitates a globally consistent approach: 46 economies are covered in detail; the rest of the world economy is covered in six trading blocs; 300 forecast variables for G8 countries, 100 for others. The global model incorporates a structural UK macroeconomic model with the following features: 12 regional sub-models, based on the ONS measure of regional house prices; 434 local authorities; Many forecast variables covering labour market, population, migration, unemployment, wages, expenditure and housing; Historic data from Granularity In order to forecast within postcode areas, accurate historic indices are needed at this level. The Rightmove AVM uses indices split by postcode area, property type and quartile of value. There are 121 postcode areas in the UK and 4 core property types, resulting in approximately 2000 individual indices available to be used. Approach The Portfolio Outlook Model is based upon an Engle-Granger ECM (Error Correction Model) which is widely used in the field of economics. Essentially, the ECM approach enables the differences between two correlated time series to be used as a driver or accelerator, alongside other driving variables. In the Portfolio Outlook Model, the deviation of prices within a postcode area compared to its parent region is used as a driving factor to determine how quickly the postcode area prices will revert to the regional level. As a modeling technique, the ECM approach is particularly well-suited because it handles short and long term effects as well as co integrated time-series, and both of these represent key modelling challenges to be overcome. The application of the ECM is a two-step process. The first step utilises the following co integrated timeseries: (i) (ii) Rightmove s proprietary postcode area indices, and Oxford Economics regional house price indices A detailed technical explanation is available for those readers who want to know more. We believe that these two products represent a true step change from the current available forecasts, and for the first time create a data-driven solution rather than one which is overly reliant on a particular point of view, gut feel or worse. More About Oxford Economics: Oxford Economics was founded in 1981 as a commercial venture with Oxford University s business college to provide economic forecasting and modelling to UK companies and financial institutions. Since then, we have become one of the world s foremost independent global advisory firms, providing reports, forecasts and analytical tools on 200 countries, 100 industrial sectors and over 3,000 cities. Our best-of-class global economic, industry models and analytical tools give us an unparalleled ability to forecast external market trends and assess their economic, social and business impact.

3 Oxford Economics has also become the leading provider of macro, city and local level economic analysis to the real estate sector. Oxford works with a wide range of global real estate institutional investors, fund managers, developers, advisors and lenders; helping them understand the key market drivers and economic fundamentals at both a country level and at local asset level. A comment from them: Oxford Economics is delighted to partner with Rightmove, taking our individual expertise and combining it to create a new service that forecasts house prices at a local level. Using the full experience and knowledge from both providers, we are excited to be part of creating a service that will improve both the transparency of information in the residential sector and provide clients with a new and valuable tool to help them predict future values in a relatively new asset class. For more information please contact George Armitage Head of Real Estate Oxford Economics Tel: +44 (0) or alternatively you can contact Alan Gearing on alan.gearing@rightmove. co.uk New Features to the SCT! What s new? Surveyors Rightcheck We will now be showing the last Rightchecked valuation within the Property Logbook Book. This will be displayed within the status field as Surveyor Rightcheck. The report needs to be fully saved for it to appear and the last checked valuation will be the one that will appear within the transaction history list. Company Comps with New Build feature. When a manual comparable is added, it can now be saved and searchable within a new Company Comps tab. What does this mean? We have now added the ability to create your own database of manual comps which will be searchable under a separate tab within the firms SCT log in. Any manual comps added will only be available to the user and their colleagues and will not be shared with any other surveying firms. This new functionality will be particularly useful when searching for New Build comparables or for comparables that are not currently available on Rightmove. It will also save the user time as the will no longer have to re-add manual comps when searching in the same area for a different job. As the comps within the Company Comps tab will all be manually added by the user, we will not be validating or updating the information that is added. Therefore it is important that the information is entered in a clear format. This will enable the user and their colleagues to re-use the comp again in the future. Please note: any site notes that are written against the comps can be seen by other users with the same firm.

4 To add a manual comparable to the Company Comps tab, the user needs to make sure the Add to Company Comps button is ticked before adding it to the SCT report. This button should always be ticked as default, therefore if the user decides that they do not want the manual comp to appear within the Company Comps tab, the button needs to be unticked before adding it to their report. Within the Manual Comparable section we have also added the ability to add New Build information. If the comparable the user is adding is a New Build property, they will need to tick the New Build Comparable button. Once this box is ticked the developer, site names and CML incentives will also need to be added. How quickly will it appear within the Company Comps Filter and how do I find it? This is a real-time update - For the comp to appear within the company comps tab, the user just needs to remember to check that Add to Company Comps button is ticked before adding it to their SCT and fully save and submit the report. This is a postcode only search - when doing a new SCT report, if the user needs to find this comp again, they simply click on the Company Comps tab and then search on the postcode within the search criteria box. The comparable will then appear within the list of Company Comps for this postcode. What Coming Next? Real Time Attribute Update Property Attributes for the subject property which are entered and/or corrected by Surveyors using the SCT are currently only updated monthly when Rightmove receives the monthly data load of new surveyor reports from their firm. Surveyors working for companies that do not supply Rightmove with data are therefore excluded from

5 from this updating process and the properties they survey remain uncorrected. This will be addressed by the introduction of Real Time updating. As soon as a Report is saved, the subject property attributes will be stored and any amendments used to update the record so that it appears correctly when used as a comparable from that point forward. Additional Attributes acting upon user feedback, we will be allowing for additional information to be captured regarding the subject property in the SCT. Additional data attributes will include Purchase Price / Estimated value, Unexpired Lease Term, For flats the presence of a lift and the floor level on which the flat is situated and whether the property is Standard Construction. Market Direction with values rising rapidly in some locations it is sensible to allow for greater granularity in the market direction section of the SCT. We will therefore be introducing some additional market direction option choices: Rapid Rise, Steady Rise, Static, Steady Fall and Rapid Fall. The SCT has become an industry must within all of the leading firms throughout the U.K. If you haven t seen the tool and would like to find out more, please do not hesitate to contact us by ing datasupport@rightmove.co.uk Sarah Ames -Data Support Executive tel: datasupport@rightmove.co.uk mi the market intelligence report In the course of its everyday business Rightmove engages with a huge range of different clients and business partners, including Estate Agents, Developers, Lenders, Housing Consultancies, Experian and many more. They use an equally diverse set of Rightmove products and services. Talking to our clients about their product needs, we identified a significant gap in the market for an interactive, data rich analysis tool that allowed instant drill down into the key data in a particular location. What does it do? to understand the market in a particular location. The location is defined by dropping a pin into the map and defining a radius search area for the analysis. The tool allows complete flexibility in terms of property type/style mix, time period/date range and the radius of the search area. The initial analysis returns the results for marketing and sales activity, average prices, upper and lower price boundaries and unit numbers. Multiple and repeat searches are all facilitated, and results can be stored for building into a final report. This product has been under development since the Autumn of last year and is now being tested by a small number of key clients in a beta version. So what does it do? Essentially it allows the user to interrogate the 60+ million record Rightmove dataset,

6 The second stage of analysis returns the typical per sq. ft. for the selected property mix, together with average size and average values. This is supplemented by a breakdown of the Experian MOSAIC classification for the locality and the new home premium evidenced by the last three years transactions. neatly with the Surveyor Comparable Tool, which can be used in conjunction with it to produce a detailed set of second hand resale comparables, again with full control of the type/style/ bedrooms/floor-area/ recency mix. Who Should Buy it? The most obvious clients for this new service are New Homes Developers and Housing Consultants. They have given it a very enthusiastic welcome, and it seems set to transform the way they appraise land opportunities, development mix and locational analysis. This is however just one part of the story. Specialist lenders are data hungry when assessing development finance applications and want to test the fundamentals of the proposition. Mainstream lenders need to have access to better tools to segment local markets and to understand new build premium and their concentration of risk. Local government and the Affordable Homes Sector has a clear need for focused data to underpin acquisitions, development, unit disposals, local supply and demand and pricing. The MIR really is a something for everyone product. The third stage facilitates an analysis of the new build activity within the locality. This is also interactive with Development details, photographs etc. all being available on demand. The Market Intelligence Report dovetails We have ambitious plans for the further development of functionality and reporting within the MIR and for it to be closely integrated into the full Rightmove suite of Valuation, Risk, Comparables and Analysis products. Big data is often a misused term. On this occasion, it might just be appropriate. Want to Know More? f you would like to find out more about this product development and the options available, please contact either Alan Gearing or Alex Solomon Dilip Bahirwani Project Lead dilip.bahirwani@rightmove.co.uk

7 Rightmove Property Baskets First time buyers basket. From the end of 2012 to the end of 2013 we have seen the average monthly sale price of the properties in this basket increase by 6.23% from 127,072 to 136, 987. This is definitely an improvement from 2010 to Nov 2011 where there was an overall decrease of %. The largest rise in the basket was seen London where the average price has risen by 13.24% from 219,906 to 249,028 The smallest change was in North East where the average price has risen from 88,818 to 90,554 which is a 1.95% change. The papers have been full of stories of the increase in house prices throughout the UK. But how is this affecting First Time Buyers trying to get onto the market? In this edition we are looking at our First Time Buyers Property Basket. The AVM values are a selection of the 2 bed houses and 2 bed flats that have previously been advertised for sale on So, from looking at all the results below it clearly shows that the market it is back on the rise. Whilst this is great news for current home owners, many First Time Buyers are likely to struggle without the help of Government schemes such as Help to Buy to get their foot on the property ladder. The full results for all regions for this period are detailed in the below table. If you would like to discuss this further please contact datasupport@rightmove.co.uk Region End -12 End- 13 Actual Change % Change All 127, , % East Anglia 119, ,205 6, % Midlands 104, ,606 4, % North East 88,818 90,554 1, % North West 85,720 88,847 3, % South Central 145, ,562 8, % South East 152, ,466 13, % South West 126, ,811 3, % Wales 103, ,085 3, % London 219, ,028 29, %

8 The Biggest Gets Even Bigger. our Surveyor Comparable Tool Product - plus the regular monthly data feeds from the largest surveyors, lenders and of course the Land Registry. We have just hit a new milestone with some fifteen million unique properties now contained within our dataset. With an owner occupied stock of around 18m properties, and private rental stock of around 4.5m properties, we now have details and history on two thirds of the total UK private housing stock. Rightmove has the largest dataset of any AVM provider in the UK, with close to 65m property records in total. The dataset is increased every day by new listings featured on and is further updated by the 3,000 surveyors using Data quality, data volume and data timeliness are the most important factors in creating great data products for our clients. When you use the suite of Rightmove data products in your business you can be the confident that no-one knows the market better than we do. Rightmove Data Support News! Sarah Ames who has been looking after current and new clients for the last 5 years is leaving to go on maternity leave on the 11th of April. For any future queries, please contact her colleague Phil Sumption on or alternatively you can him at datasupport@rightmove.co.uk