Rapidly Growing Cities and their impact on Solid Waste Management

Transcription

1 Rapidly Growing Cities and their impact on Solid Waste Management Professor David C Wilson Independent Waste & Resource Management Consultant Imperial College London ISWA Presidential Advisory Committee, 7-8 June 2013, Vienna

2 My brief for this presentation PART 1: Forecasting future waste quantities 1. Population development 2. Rural - urban migration 3. Regional changes 4. Forecasting future waste generation PART 2: Implications for the waste sector 5. Current status/ recent progress of SWM in developing countries 6. Future priorities

3 Estimated and projected world population (billions, ) Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York

4 Estimated and projected world population by region (medium variant, billions, ) Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York

5 Distribution of world population (medium variant) Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York

6 Population change by region ) Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York

7 Population of Europe and Africa Note: this medium variant projection assumes a significant fall in fertility rates in Africa Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York

8 Population also migrating to cities N Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012

9 Urban growth mainly in Asia and Africa % increase projected Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012

10 Distribution of world urban population Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012

11 Percentage of urban population and location of large cities, Megacities Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012

12 Percentage of urban population and location of large cities, Megacities Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012

13 Percentage of urban population and location of large cities, Megacities Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012

14 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012 Percentage of urban population and location of large cities, Megacities

15 Total population by city size class (millions) Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012

16 The World s largest 50 cities: Region Europe North America Japan Latin America Asis (excluding Japan) Middle East North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Range of populations (million) Numbers of megacities Source: current draft paper by Dan Hoornweg and Perinaz Bhada-Tata: Solid waste in the World s 100 largest cities in the 20 th century

17 Waste per capita increases with income level High-income countries: Waste per capita doubled since 1980 Perform worst Source: Wilson, D.C., Rodic L., Scheinberg, A., Velis, C.A. and Alabaster, G. (2012). Comparative analysis of solid waste management in 20 cities. Waste Management & Research, 30,

18 Predicted decreases in waste generation per capita at high levels of GNI/Capita Source: current draft paper by Dan Hoornweg and Perinaz Bhada-Tata: Solid waste in the World s 100 largest cities in the 20 th century

19 Waste Generation by Region (Current) 1.3 billion tonnes/yr MSW OECD generates ~ 50% world s waste outlier China produces 70% of EAP region waste Source: Dan Hoornweg: data from What a Waste, 2012, World Bank

20 Waste Generation by Region (now & 2025) 2.2 billion tonnes/yr MSW (69% increase) Big growth in EAP, SAR, AFR; OECD not outlier Source: Dan Hoornweg: data from What a Waste, 2012, World Bank * Bubble size proportional to total urban population

21 Total solid waste quantities and composition by income level, now and 2025 Source: What a Waste, 2012, World Bank

22 Waste composition 100% 90% Waste composition Affected by: Geography: building materials, ash content (HH heating), green waste. Climate: Ulan Bator, Mongolia ash is 60% of the MSW in winter, 20% in summer. Income: Wealthier nations have more complex waste, lower organic content Culture: differences in food consumed (eg, packaged or fresh), electronic equipment used changes nature of waste Source: What a Waste, 2012, World Bank 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Current 2025 Current 2025 Current 2025 Current 2025 Low income Lower Middle income Upper Middle income High income Others Metal Glass Plastic Paper Organic

23 CBO collection in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso Modern landfill in Hong Kong Selling recycled bottles, Dhaka CURRENT AND FUTURE PRIORITIES FOR SWM AROUND THE WORLD Photo credits: Jeroen Ijgosse; David C Wilson;, Mansoor Ali

24 Simplified ISWM analytical framework Public health Collection Inclusivity User and Provider Environment Disposal Physical Governance Sound Institutions & Pro-active Policies 3Rs Reduce, Reuse, Recycle Financial Sustainability Concept: Scheinberg A, Wilson D.C. and Rodic L. (2010). Solid Waste Management in the World s Cities. Earthscan for UN-Habitat David Wilson, Ljiljana Rodic, Costas Velis

25 Waste Management Drivers in what is now the developed world: DCW Resource management Climate change Public Health - collection Environment - disposal Recent drivers in the North Resource value Rediscover recycling

26 Key Drivers in the developing world DCW Public Health - collection Environment - disposal Resource value

27 1 st driver: Public Health Focus on Collection Direct: Increased incidence of sickness among children living in households without a waste collection service: Data from Demographic and Health surveys: o Diarrhoea rate x 2 or more o Acute respiratory infections rate x 6 Burning uncollected waste, Venezuela Indirect: waterborne disease via blocked drains and flooding Waste blocking a storm drain. Bamako, Mali Dengue fever clean-up campaign, Quezon City Photo credits clockwise from top left: Jeroen Ijgosse; Erica Trauba; SWAPP

28 Public health collection coverage World Bank website: 30-60% in low & middle income countries Collection / sweeping coverage (%) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Wilson, D.C., Rodic L., Scheinberg, A., Velis, C.A. and Alabaster, G. (2012). Comparative analysis of solid waste management in 20 cities. Waste Management & Research, 30, % 0% Income level High Upper-middle Lower-middle Low GNI per capita (000' $)

29 2 nd driver: Environment Focus on phasing out open dumps Top: On Nooch, Bangkok, 1983 Bottom: Jam Chakro, Karachi, 2001 Photos: David C Wilson; Jonathan Rouse

30 Environmental control controlled disposal 1990s baseline: open dumping still dominant in middle and low-income countries Income Level State of the art disposal Simple controlled disposal Uncontrolled Disposal High 100% 0% 0% Upper-middle 75% 20% 5% Lower-middle 61% 32% 7% Low 29% 24% 47% Substantial progress has been made, particularly in middle-income countries Data source: Scheinberg A, Wilson D.C. and Rodic L. (2010). Solid Waste Management in the World s Cities. Published for UN-Habitat by Earthscan, London

31 3rd Driver - Resource value 3Rs Recycling rates - formal vs informal Income Level Average % Formal % Informal % High Uppermiddle Lowermiddle Low Data source: Scheinberg A, Wilson D.C. and Rodic L. (2010). Solid Waste Management in the World s Cities. Published for UN-Habitat by Earthscan, London

32 Major opportunity for win-win solutions through partnership with the informal recycling sector Build recycling rates Move towards zero waste Improve livelihoods Improve working conditions Save the city money Itinerant waste buyer in Brazil Sorting recycled plastics in Delhi Photo credits: Jeroen Ijgosse, Enrico Fabian

33 Framework for selecting appropriate interventions for informal sector integration A. Solid Waste Management interface Financial sustainability Access to waste Separate waste at source B. Materials & value chain interface O. Organisation & empowerment (underpinning basis) C. Social interface C Velis, DC Wilson et al. An analytical framework and tool ( InteRa ) for integrating the informal recycling sector in waste and resource management systems in developing countries. Waste Management & Research September :

34 Rapid waste growth is inevitable if waste per capita tracks economic growth Recycling is an easy first option to reduce waste for disposal Waste prevention is also critical Waste prevention has come onto agenda in high-income countries Requires innovation in developing countries Source: Wilson, D.C., Rodic L., Scheinberg, A., Velis, C.A. and Alabaster, G. (2012). Comparative analysis of solid waste management in 20 cities. Waste Management & Research, 30,

35 My only slide on waste prevention in developing countries Unsold food from shops, which would otherwise be discarded as waste, being sorted prior to distribution to some people registered with the social inclusion food bank in Belo Horizonte. Brazil SLU

36 Governance factors also important Public health Collection Inclusivity User and Provider Environment Disposal Physical Governance Sound Institutions & Pro-active Policies 3Rs Reduce, Reuse, Recycle Financial Sustainability Concept: Scheinberg A, Wilson D.C. and Rodic L. (2010). Solid Waste Management in the World s Cities. Earthscan for UN-Habitat David Wilson, Ljiljana Rodic, Costas Velis

37 Good governance partnering with ALL stakeholders in an ISWM system Service users Development partners State Agencies NGOs / CBOs Municipality Neighbouring municipalities Producer responsibility organisations Informal sector Private service providers

38 Inclusivity: Focus in Particular on Users & Service Providers Development partners Service users State Agencies NGOs / CBOs Municipality Neighbouring municipalities Producer responsibility organisations Informal sector Private service providers

39 Achieving user inclusivity Citizens Committee At Barangay level in Quezon City, Philippines Participative planning Catia La Mar, Venezuela Photos: SWAPP; Jeroen IJgosse

40 Collection Door-to-door informal collector, India Bicycle cart delivering to small transfer station in Kunming Some examples of diversity in service provision Curepipe, Mauritius CBO collection in Bamako, Mali Adelaide, Australia Modernisation does not necessarily mean motorisation Photo credits clockwise from top left: WASTE; Erica Trauba; Justin Lang, Zero Waste South Australia; Curepipe Municipality; Ljiljana Rodic

41 Financial sustainability - affordability Income Level City SW budget per capita City SW budget per capita as % of GDP per capita range average High $ % 0.17% Upper-middle $ % 0.59% Lower-middle $ % 0.69% Low* $ % 0.32% * Data only available for 3 of the 6 low-income cities (for 16 out of 20 cities in total) Affordability is a key issue in the lower income countries Fees < 1-2% of household income Data source: Scheinberg A, Wilson D.C. and Rodic L. (2010). Solid Waste Management in the World s Cities. Published for UN-Habitat by Earthscan, London

42 People are willing to pay when they can see the benefits - which is often for primary collection, to improve the living conditions of their children Raising awareness amongst citizens to pay for waste collection goes hand in hand with collection service improvement Maputo, Mozambique Photo: Joachim Stretz

43 Sound Institutions, Proactive Policies Adequacy of national SWM framework 1. Legislation and regulations 2. Strategy/policy 3. Guidelines and implementation procedures 4. National institution responsible for SWM policy 5. Regulatory control 6. Extended producer responsibility Degree of local institutional coherence 1. Organisational structure 2. Institutional capacity 3. City-wide strategy and plan 4. Availability and quality of SWM data 5. Management, control and supervision of service delivery 6. Inter-municipal co-operation Source: D.C. Wilson et al. Benchmark Indicators for Integrated & Sustainable Waste Management (ISWM). Paper to ISWA World Congress, 2013

44 Kerbside sort in Rotterdam Bring bins in Varna, Bulgaria Exchanging recyclables for onions Siddhipur, Nepal A diversity of approaches to separate collection for recycling REFLECTIONS IN SUMMARY Photo credits: City of Rotterdam; Kossara Bozhilova-Kisheva; Bhushan Tuladhar

45 69% increase in waste generation by and the shifting regional focus of SWM challenges Triple whammy : 1. Rapidly growing populations 2. Rural- urban migration 3. Waste per capita increases with economic growth Source: Dan Hoornweg: data from What a Waste, 2012, World Bank * Bubble size proportional to total urban population

46 SWM priorities are defined by the physical requirements Extend collection coverage Reduce waste generation Build recycling rates Eliminate open dumping Appropriate treatment DCW DCW s version of the waste hierarchy

47 Key questions for assessing when treatment is appropriate Waste-to-energy incinerators Will our waste burn unsupported? Does it compete with recycling for paper, plastics? Can we afford the gate fee? Does the environmental regulator have the powers & institutional capacity to control and monitor the gas cleaning? Baoan incinerator in Shenzhen, China Novel technology Is it proven? Beware the magic solution If it seems too good to be true then it probably is! Photo credit: Timothy O'Rourke for The New York Times

48 .. but successful implementation requires good governance & partnerships Partnerships underpin all the Habitat governance factors Development partners Service users State Agencies Municipalities cannot solve the SWM problem alone NGOs / CBOs Producers Municipality Informal sector Private service providers Neighbouring municipalities

49 Thank you for listening!