Availability meets demand

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1 Availability meets demand The market for Dutch commercial property January Definitely. DTZ Zadelhoff

2 Contents Property Vision 3 How many offices would you like with your coffee? 9 Investments 12 Outlook for office investments 14 Retail 17 Logistics 18 Residential investments 20 Outlook for the Dutch investment market in Glossary of terms 22 Cover photography Spaces Amsterdam (photo: Matthijs Borghgraef) Availability meets demand The market for Dutch commercial property January 2013 Utrecht: DTZ Zadelhoff v.o.f. ISBN Keywords: Investments, property, real estate, market research. Design: Matt Art Concept & Design, Haarlem. Despite the fact that the contents of this report have been meticulously checked, DTZ Zadelhoff v.o.f. cannot provide any guarantee against any loss or damage suffered as a result of any incorrect information presented in this report. Nothing from this publication may be copied and/or reproduced without indication of the source. DTZ Zadelhoff Availability meets demand 2

3 Property Vision In our previous Property Vision Report Potential Winners in the Market of January 2012, we outlined a picture of the supply of office space. We observed that the Dutch office market could expect a fall in demand and therefore had to cope with a structural oversupply. For each office available for sale or letting last year the prospects of finding an occupier in the market was analysed, and we used this information to divide supply into three categories: high-potential, promising and low-potential. Fewer offices Much has happened in the Netherlands in the administrative sector. All kinds of developments affect the property market. One example is the reduction in the number of municipalities in the Netherlands to create larger municipalities. This is a positive development for the property market, because it means that competition between neighbouring municipalities will be reduced; one of the main causes of the oversupply of offices. The Covenant to tackle vacant office space (Convenant aanpak leegstand kantoren) which was signed on 27 June 2012 by the government, a number of umbrella organizations and several sector organizations, offers a helping hand in reducing the office space surplus. The principal aim of the Covenant is to achieve a properly functioning office market, where office supply better matches the various demands of occupiers as regards quality, location, building functionality and size (Article 2.1 of the Covenant). The Covenant assumes that the provincial authorities will manage the spatial planning process. Provinces are struggling with this responsibility, as a result of which this approach has not yet produced visible results. In addition, the demolition fund is still forthcoming because there is no consensus among building owners and municipalities. From supply-driven to demand-driven The Office Covenant lays down that developers must build new office buildings mainly in Growth Areas (Article 8.2). Although the Covenant does link demand and supply, we can conclude from the definitions of the various areas (Article 1) that this vision is based on a supply-driven approach to the market. The addition of offices to the stock, at whatever location, must therefore not be the starting point. We believe that present and future demand must be the determining factor and the market should be viewed in terms of the needs of the user. WTC in Amsterdam 3 Availability meets demand

4 Property Vision Take-up level has changed permanently Demand is generated by a wide variety of office users, all with their own individual accommodation needs which have been severely affected by the economic crisis. Since 2009 demand for office space has been considerably lower than in the preceding years. If we compare average take-up for the period from 2009 to 2012 with average take-up from 2005 to 2008, we see that take-up has fallen in all sectors. In 2012 take-up was almost 1.2 million m 2. Market dynamics are expected to have changed permanently, and during the coming years we will see take-up levels fluctuating around 1 million square metres. Within this overall picture of take-up, developments in the various sectors do differ considerably. If we compare average take-up for 2011 and 2012 with average take-up in 2009 and 2010, a number of sectors are clearly experiencing more dynamic activity. What is striking is that this is mainly in the financial and economic business services sectors. This greater dynamism, incidentally, is largely the result of organizations scaling down and relocating, leaving behind more space than they take up elsewhere. Take-up accounted for by government and non-profit organizations is not recovering and is in fact falling further. Responding to the occupier Although the dynamism in the office market may have changed permanently, office space is still needed. At present 85% of the office stock is in use. Our previous Property Vision Report Potential winners in the market made clear that a number of geographical and market-specific features can be viewed as factors for success. Offices in an urban area with a population of at least 150,000, with a historic centre, a university and a growing labour force have higher potential than offices in other urban areas. This can be explained by Dynamics of office space in the Netherlands per sector Comparison between average take-up and average take-up % -60% Positive -50% -40% Negative Source: DTZ Research, 2013 Accountancy, legal and tax Banks, insurance and pension funds Other business services Foundations Trade organizations Care and education Transport ICT and telecommunications Internet and media Energy Architects, consultancy firms, R&D Government and non-profit -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% the fact that people prefer to work in a lively environment which is readily accessible and with plenty of amenities. In these areas, a higher percentage of the stock will be occupied and in some towns and cities there may even be a scarcity of available office space. Even so, there is too much availability in the Dutch office market in proportion to present and future demand for office space, and this makes the struggle to attract users particularly intense. Whereas during previous decades the market was supply-driven, it is now a demand-driven office market. It is becoming increasingly important, as the owner of property, to put oneself in the user s shoes and anticipate the user s wishes. Activity-related workplace Future demand will be determined by the wishes of the user. Organizations have different departments, and those working in these departments perform different activities. These activities determine the type of workspace required and ultimately the organization s accommodation needs. The activity-related workspace is the future. We have divided employee activities into six user typologies. Within an organization, employees will often belong to more than one user typology. Each typology has its own profile, and for each typology there are differing accommodation requirements. For example, Businesspeople need an office which facilitates virtually all office functions. Location also plays an important role for this user typology, so that accessibility by car, for example, is crucial. For The Creatives, it is in fact very important that the space itself in which they work provides them with inspiration. Such spaces do not always conform to the standard types, and so it is particularly important that flexible user options are available in an office building. The 9-to-5 workers are usually office-bound during their working day, and so for these people it is very important to devote attention to the individual workspace, whereas The Networkers attach greater importance to the common and shared areas which must be suitable for meeting people. Discretion and style are self-evident for an office building that is to meet the needs of The Directors. For them, the office building is their business card. The Sellers need their office to be optimally accessible and close to their catchment area. The following table outlines a profile of the core activities or core products for each user typology. A number of features indicate the accommodation needs of the users, followed by the type of businesses that fit this accommodation need. Businesses may of course fall into several typologies. For example, intermediaries fall into the category of The Networkers as well as that of The Sellers. Availability meets demand 4

5 User typology Points of attention for accommodation Example organizations SQm in use The Businesspeople Service providers Intensive individual client relationship Advice Visiting the client Receiving the client The Creatives Unique products Innovative Meetings Virtual client contact The 9-to-5 workers Routine work Administrative work Internal meetings Back office Supporting The Networkers Working independently Innovative Small-scale projects Virtual client contact External meetings outside the office Small businesses Emphasis on meeting and receiving clients Mix of office concepts Availability of support services Informal meeting spaces Emphasis on projects and presentations Activity-related workspaces No support services available Emphasis on accommodation Availability of support services Mix of open-plan and cellular office concepts Limited meeting facilities Informal meeting spaces Emphasis on accommodation, discussion, receiving, meeting Business lounge or hotel concept Activity-related workspaces combined with core working Shared high-quality support services Integration of relaxation and work functions Informal meeting spaces Private bankers Accountants Lawyers Tax consultants Consultancy firms Architects Advertising agencies Media firms Internet companies Gaming Industry Insurance and pension funds Public bodies Non-profit organizations Interest groups Foundations Self-employed workers without employees Spin-offs Intermediaries Start-ups Several disciplines The Directors Decision makers Policy managers Internal meetings Front offices Business card The Sellers Selling services or products Often small organizations Service desk function Visiting the client Receiving the client International Emphasis on meeting and discussion Integration of relaxation and work functions Informal meeting spaces Emphasis on internal and external meeting Activity-related workspaces Informal meeting spaces Public bodies Non-profit organizations Holding companies Banks Bank branches Intermediaries Trade organizations Import and export companies ICT In order to estimate where demand and supply meet, it is important to analyse the development of demand for each typology. We expect that the area of office space currently being used by The Businesspeople, The 9-to-5 workers, The Directors and The Sellers will decline. Demand among The Creatives and The Networkers for accommodation will increase and these typologies will therefore use more office space in the future. The fact that demand is increasing is due to a growing number of self-employed workers without personnel in the Netherlands, and several office formats are meeting this need in imaginative ways (see page 9 to 11). 5 Availability meets demand

6 Property Vision Less use of space creates dynamism A fall in the total area in use does not necessarily mean that no dynamism can be expected. If organizations organize themselves more efficiently they will need less office space. But this efficiency drive cannot always be achieved within the existing accommodation and so alternative accommodation will be sought. A number of examples of this can be found in the top 20 largest relocations of For example, ING decided to optimize its accommodation, vacating five sites and concentrating its activities in Tower B at De Entree in Amsterdam Zuidoost. The fact that demand for accommodation may vary considerably from one organization to another is also evident from the top 20 largest relocations in For Capgemini it is extremely important to maximize accessibility by car, whereas Robeco has chosen for a location that is readily accessible by public transport. These top 20 transactions give a good picture of where demand and supply meet, and also show clearly that users often cannot be defined by a single user typology. In order to find the right accommodation, first a good profile of that user must be made. made based on the location and the market relationships there, since the property concerned had not been included in the availability figures. The fact that no fewer than eight companies were accommodated in new office buildings also says a great deal. There is evidently a qualitative demand that cannot always be met by the existing supply. In nine cases existing offices could meet demand. Eyeworks is the only organization in the top 20 which moved into a building that had been classified as having high potential when it was still available to let. This is Raamplein 1, better known as the HES complex, a historic building in the centre of Amsterdam. Furthermore, three offices have been thoroughly renovated. Spaces has completely altered the interior of its office building in Amsterdam, and De Rode Olifant in The Hague has also been refurbished. The Nieuw Amsterdam building in Amsterdam Zuidoost is to be stripped completely and altered to meet the needs of Nuon before it takes up occupancy of these offices. This will transform this office from promising to high-potential. The top 20 transactions show that eleven offices were classified as having high letting potential, eight were promising and one had low letting potential. For a number of new offices, an assumption was Top 20 relocations in 2012 Offices De Croon, s-hertogenbosch City Location Organization Amsterdam Zuidoost Central District Nuon Energy Utrecht De Wetering Capgemini Nederland Amsterdam Zuidoost Central District ING Rotterdam Rotterdam Central District Robeco Nederland Amsterdam Zuidas Stibbe The Hague Zuid-Hollandlaan Spaces Rotterdam Rotterdam Central District NautaDutilh Arnhem IJsseloord II Dekra Amsterdam Zuidas Spaces Schiphol Schiphol-Centre Cargill Nederland Hoofddorp Beukenhorst-South Bluewater Energy Services 's-hertogenbosch Paleiskwartier Enexis bv The Hague Beatrixkwartier Mn Services Amsterdam Centre Eyeworks Eindhoven High Tech Campus ASML Enschede Business & Science Park Demcon Holding Zoetermeer Rokkeveen Ortec Hoofddorp Beukenhorst-East PostNL Pakketten Benelux Amsterdam Zuidelijke IJ-oevers D.E. Master Blenders 1713 Leiden Centre ID College Availability meets demand 6

7 Corner of De Lairessestraat/Concertgebouwplein, Amsterdam m 2 Label Building status User typology 26,000 Promising Renovated The Businesspeople / The 9-to-5 workers 21,000 High-potential New space The Businesspeople / The Sellers 20,000 Promising Existing The Businesspeople / The Sellers 16,000 High-potential New space The Businesspeople / The Sellers / The Directors 14,400 High-potential New space The Businesspeople 10,200 Promising Renovated The Creatives / The Networkers / The Businesspeople 10,000 High-potential New space The Businesspeople / The Directors 8,700 Promising Existing The 9-to-5 workers 8,700 High-potential Renovated The Creatives / The Networkers / The Businesspeople 8,200 High-potential New space The Directors / The Businesspeople / The Sellers / The 9-to-5 workers 8,000 High-potential New space The Businesspeople / The Sellers / The 9-to-5 workers 7,800 High-potential New space The Directors / The Businesspeople / The Sellers / The 9-to-5 workers 7,300 High-potential Existing The Directors / The Businesspeople / The 9-to-5 workers 7,000 High-potential Existing The Creatives 6,600 Promising Existing The Creatives 6,500 Promising Existing The Creatives 6,300 Low-potential Existing The Businesspeople / The 9-to-5 workers 5,600 Promising Existing The 9-to-5 workers / The Businesspeople 5,500 High-potential New space The Directors 5,100 Promising Existing The Directors / The 9-to-5 workers 7 Availability meets demand

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9 How many offices would you like with your coffee? At present there are many self-employed workers without employees active in the Netherlands. During the 1990s, 1 in 17 of the working population was a self-employed worker, whereas today this is 1 in 10, according to figures published by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. A self-employed worker without employees has completely different accommodation requirements to an organization with many employees. Many of them work from home, but there they often lack the professional facilities they need. A number of office formats are responding to this need in imaginative ways. The WTC at the Zuidas in Amsterdam provides offices with an international feel but which are also suitable for small, independent businesses. At present more small businesses, including self-employed workers, are accommodated than a few years ago. Christiaan Huijg, Managing Director, says: The WTC offers the opportunity to work in an international atmosphere, also for businesses needing just one workspace as well as businesses who want to conclude short-term contracts. In order to serve this target group even better, since September 2012 the WTC has been offering what are known as Suit Offices. These are fully furnished and equipped work rooms which businesses can move into and be fully operational within a day. Roughly 75% of businesses accommodated in the WTC are international companies. Its location close to Schiphol is important for the success of the WTC at the Zuidas. It has an area of 125,000 m 2, of which 115,000 m 2 are offices, 4,000 m 2 conference facilities and hospitality, 4,000 m 2 retail and 2,000 m 2 storage. Huijg adds: This 10,000 m 2 of overhead creates a sense of dynamism and drive and makes the 115,000 m 2 of office space highly successful. The WTC currently has an occupancy rate of 97%, the same level as before the debt crisis. It would seem that the WTC is crisis-proof. flexible workspaces at Berenschot in Utrecht WTC in Amsterdam Regus in Laren Another company that has been active in the Netherlands for some time and provides flexible workspaces for rent is Regus. Regus is clearly fulfilling a need among users. Eduard Ch.L.M. Schaepman MM RM, Managing Director, explains: The present way of working causes a lot of stress. You have to be on time everywhere, while at the same time you have to cope with traffic congestion. This stress 9 Availability meets demand

10 How many offices would you like with your coffee? Regus in Laren is not good for the employee and the way he or she functions at work. In order to ensure that employees suffer less stress, companies will start to organize their space differently. Schaepman does not expect that all offices will disappear completely, because corporates will always need core offices. In the future, organizations will conclude contracts for the office space which they know they will need. Virtually all other office space they may need will be rented on a flexible basis. Flexible renting may be for a certain number of square metres for the short-term, but also a concept where work can be done between appointments, for example. At Spaces it is also all about the user. Its founder Martijn Roordink says: We want to attract high-end professionals seeking accommodation between 20 and 400 m 2. High-end professionals are aged between 30 and 45 years, are active in the service industry and are looking for a good work-life balance. This target group is not served well at present, but Spaces aims to provide this service, and that is precisely what this office concept is all about. Roordink summarizes the concept as follows: It s all about hospitality, transparency and the ability to get down to work effectively with all Seats to meet in Utrecht Availability meets demand 10

11 Caballero factory in The Hague the necessary top-quality facilities on hand. The entire concept is rather like a menu. There are many choices, but ultimately you just pay for what you use. A good location is also important, of course. Spaces locates its offices at readily accessible locations. A good concept, but then it s all about location, location, location! You could describe it as the retailization of offices. All these formats directly target the office user, not defined as the company but as the person. The person is central and the concepts are designed to make things as easy and convenient as possible for him or her. One could compare these concepts to a good hotel. Visitors to a hotel want to experience perfect hospitality and have every wish satisfied. It is perhaps therefore not entirely coincidental that many hotels and strategically located restaurants and cafés are used as workplaces. The arrival of WiFi makes it possible to work anywhere with a laptop, and that means hotels or restaurants too. An additional advantage is the excellent hospitality. The Van der Valk hotel in Houten on the A27 motorway is a good example of this trend. On a normal weekday in December around 150 visitors can be found on the ground floor. Further enquiries reveal that this number remains fairly constant, both at the beginning and the end of the day. The ground floor of the hotel has three parts: the lounge, the restaurant and a café. In the restaurant, but above all in the lounge, there are a noticeably large number of people working with laptops. Many smartly dressed individuals are engaged in discussions, clearly business-related. The host/manager of the hotel explains that 95% of the visitors are there to do business. It is of course ideal: a location right on the motorway, with free parking and WiFi available. In the past, many offices had morning and afternoon tea and coffee brought round on a trolley. Later the vending machine with freshly ground coffee was introduced, but now the question has been turned on its head in many office formats: How many offices would you like with your coffee? 11 Availability meets demand

12 Investments: availability meets demand During the past year it has been difficult to bring together demand and supply in the investment market, with relatively few transactions being concluded. Investment volume in the Netherlands in 2012, at EUR 4.3 billion, was some 4% lower than in A number of large transactions considerably influenced this, as just five transactions accounted for 28% of the investment volume in Top 5 largest investment transactions (in millions of euros), 2012 City Purchaser Vendor Property Purchase price Eindhoven Chalet Groep Philips High Tech Campus 450 National TPG Patron Uni-Invest Uni-Invest Portfolio 359 Amsterdam Deka Immobillien Credit Suisse Viñoly 140 Amsterdam Deka Immobilien Evans Randall The Rock 132 National WDP Van de Ven Bouw Lake Side Portfolio 105 Source: DTZ Zadelhoff, 2013 These transactions all took place in the first half of the year, while investment volume fell during the last two quarters. A typical feature of these transactions is that purchasers are often able to attract capital for their investments in highly inventive ways. The two office transactions of Deka took place at an absolute prime location at the Zuidas in Amsterdam. Pressure was being exerted on both vendors to sell. In the case of The Rock it was the financier who urged the sale. With Viñoly, the open fund of Credit Suisse was at risk of going into liquidation, while Deka was in fact subjected to considerable investment pressure because many private investors invest in Deka s open funds. The biggest transaction of 2012 was the sale of the Philips High Tech Campus by means of a sale-and-leaseback construction. By reaching agreement with a prestigious tenant such as Philips, the purchaser was able to access the capital market directly to attract loan capital for the transaction through a kind of bond loan. The Uni-Invest portfolio, which comprises often older office and industrial buildings with high vacancy levels and therefore a high risk, is an example of a private equity transaction where the purchasers, TPG/Patron, acquired control of Uni-Invest by taking over the loan for a low price. This transaction has caused increased interest among such venture investors in the Dutch market. For example, the Orange portfolio, comprising approximately 25 industrial and office buildings, was bought by a private equity party. The fact that listed property may be able to rely on more interest is shown by the growth of the Belgian quoted company WDP. Many institutional investors are interested in logistics property, but prefer to invest indirectly in this segment through specialists such as WDP. The Lake Side portfolio, comprising newly built logistics centres with long leases, offer a form of security that investors are looking for in this segment. Dutch property investment market - Retail Gross initial yield top, middle and basic segment Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q top segment middle segment basic segment Source: DTZ Research, 2013 Dutch property investment market - Residential Gross initial yield top, middle and basic segment Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q top segment middle segment basic segment Source: DTZ Research, 2013 Availability meets demand 12

13 Spaces Zuidas in Amsterdam Demand among investors can increasingly be divided into two distinct types. On the one hand there is demand among long-term investors for relatively safe property investments. This is expressed in an increase in transactions for residential property, which, with 29%, has a large share of the total investment volume. Retail property also continues to be popular, but only genuine A1 retail property in the major cities, large shopping centres and supermarkets which match market requirements (at least 1,200 m 2 and a good catchment area). Offices are only bought now at prime locations. On the other hand, investors appear to be focusing on highly risky but very high-yielding investments. Older buildings with vacant space are acquired at knock-down prices. The purchase of the Uni-Invest portfolio and Orange portfolio already mentioned are the first examples of foreign opportunity purchasers cashing in on the Dutch market at low prices. A number of private investors too have bought high-risk office property at low prices in areas such as The Hague-Binckhorst, Diemen and Amersfoort. Yield movements are a good reflection of the market situation, and here too two distinct developments can be observed. For high-quality property good yields are still to be had, but these are becoming rarer. There has never been such a wide gap between yields in the top, middle and basic segments, particularly in the office and industrial property market. We expect that yields will rise further in all segments. Dutch property investment market - Offices Gross initial yield top, middle and basic segment Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q top segment middle segment basic segment Source: DTZ Research, 2013 Dutch property investment market, Industrial property Gross initial yield top, middle and basic segment Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q top segment middle segment basic segment Source: DTZ Research, Availability meets demand

14 Outlook for office investments: still demand for the best property In the market for office space we still expect some activity in the core segment of the market. Although demand has fallen we see continued interest from German investors, while French and Swiss investors are also showing an interest in prime locations in the Netherlands. Viewed in that light it is not surprising that the top 5 transactions in the market for office space concern office buildings in Amsterdam. Leaving aside the High Tech Campus and Uni-Invest transactions, these five transactions together in fact account for almost half of the total investment volume for offices in Offices: top 5 largest investment transactions (in millions of euros), 2012 City Purchaser Vendor Property Purchase price Amsterdam Deka Immobillien Credit Suisse Viñoly 140 Amsterdam Deka Immobillien Evans Randall The Rock 132 Amsterdam Wölbern Invest Biesterbos Number One 89 Amsterdam HansaInvest CBRE Global Investors NL Nijenburg Oosterdokseiland 56 Amsterdam Real I.S. MAB De Alexander Oosterdokseiland 55 Source: DTZ Zadelhoff, 2013 These offices are all at excellent locations such as the Zuidas and Oosterdokseiland, often with a mix of tenants. It is not only the duration of the lease which is taken into consideration. The location and quality of the building, which must also be able to attract lessees in the future, are increasingly the determining factors. Since there will be little availability of new space in this top segment, we do not expect many transactions in this segment in However, there are a few large buildings for sale at several prime locations such as the Zuidas, the Beatrixkwartier and the central district of Rotterdam, and a number of office buildings will reach the final phase of development during the course of 2013 and This means that the prices will be subjected to further downward pressure, particularly at the bottom end of the market. However, the middle and top segment will not be left unscathed, and the Netherlands is not unique in this. Prices have been falling throughout Europe, with the exception of a few cities such as London and Paris. From a European perspective, further price falls are expected but this trend would appear to have begun earlier in the Netherlands and therefore will come to an end earlier than in other European markets. When that happens, the top segment will once again become attractive to more foreign core investors and the basic and middle segment of the market will attract American and British private equity parties or venture investors such as TPG/Patron. Generally speaking the availability of investments in the market for office space is expected to increase further for a number of reasons, such as German funds selling property, insolvencies and a large number of financing arrangements which will expire, as a result of which the financed property will be put up for sale straight away or as part of a finance portfolio. Availability meets demand 14 Caballero factory in The Hague

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17 Retail: convenience and experience The retail market has been struggling with falling consumer spending through the emergence of online shopping, the economic situation and falling consumer confidence. The demand still remaining can be divided into day-to-day shopping and shopping for pleasure. Consumers can choose from many alternatives for their day-to-day shopping. Shops offering the most convenience will earn the consumer s loyalty. Shopping for pleasure is not available everywhere. The consumer demands shopping districts which offer a good experience. Shopping centres that respond to consumer demand for convenience or the individual stores located in lively town and city centres can still count on interest from investors. Retail: top 5 largest investment transactions (in millions of euros), 2012 City Purchaser Vendor Property Purchase price Waddinxveen Altera Vastgoed ASR Vastgoed WC Waddinxveen 60 Amsterdam ASR Vastgoed NRE Amsterdam Herengracht, Koningsplein 57 Oegstgeest Syntrus Achmea Corio WC Lange Voort 44 Utrecht Syntrus Achmea Annexum De Planeet 44 Velsen Winkelcentrum Velserbroek Corio WC Velserbroek 26 Source: DTZ Zadelhoff, 2013 This is evident from the top 5 largest retail investments, consisting of three shopping centres, a multi-tenant retail building in Utrecht city centre, and individual shops within the ring of canals in Amsterdam. These account for 30% of the total volume of retail investment. Dutch institutional investors colour the market picture, both as purchaser (Altera, ASR en Syntrus Achmea) and as vendor (Corio). The developer, traditionally responsible for the development and sale of large Dutch shopping centres, is less prominent. Even so, ASR realized the largest sale of retail property in Institutional retail investors are increasingly choosing explicitly for a particular philosophy. For example, Redevco, VastNed and part of Syntrus Achmea are interested above all in individual shops at prime A1 locations in larger cities. What does not fit into this philosophy is sold. Unibail Rodamco and Corio focus explicitly on large-scale shopping centres in dominant shopping districts, often in the larger towns and cities and in city centres. Using their dominant role in a shopping district, these investors can exert influence on the shopping centres and enhance the pulling power of a shopping district. At present Corio is selling a considerable amount of retail property that does not fit into this strategy, examples being the recent sales of Lange Voort shopping centre in Oegstgeest and Velserbroek shopping centre. Demand for individual retail property at A1 locations in towns and cities offering an all-round shopping experience continues to be the greatest. Demand and supply can be matched only partially in these locations. Although there is supply, demand from institutional and private investors is greater. Shopping centres that have sufficient scale to continue to attract consumers can count on interest from investors. Demand for these centres focuses mainly on the major cities and growth centres in the Randstad conurbation, Noord-Brabant and Gelderland and in market towns and cities such as Groningen, Maastricht and Zwolle. For 2013 we expect few new-build transactions because many plans for new shopping centres are being put on hold. However, there will be more supply from the existing portfolios of institutional investors in the market because of the strategic choices we have already referred to. WE Fashion in Heerlen 17 Availability meets demand

18 Logistics: tailor-made for specialists The logistics property market forms a niche in the investment market, in which specific knowledge of the user is crucial. That is why investments are often made indirectly in this segment of the market. Specialist parties such as Prologis, Goodman, Segro and WDP offer this option. They know what is important to users of storage and distribution centres and also anticipate changing user requirements which retailers in particular place on distribution centres as a consequence of their e-commerce activities. Investment in logistics property can generate a relatively high return and at a lower risk, provided the investment is at the right location. The Belgian listed company WDP knows how to attract capital on the stock market in this way, and is growing strongly. Besides the Lake Side Portfolio already referred to, WDP has bought the new distribution centre of automobile importer Pon in Barneveld by means of a sale-and-leaseback construction with a 15-year lease. Logistics: top 5 largest investment transactions (in millions of euros), 2012 City Purchaser Vendor Property Purchase price National WDP Van de Ven Bouw Lake Side Portefeuille 105 Barneveld WDP Pon Onroerend Goed DC Pon 26 Almelo Aspen Real Estate OVG Projectontwikkeling DC Timberland 25 Moerdijk Prologis SNS Property Finance Orionweg 22 Eindhoven Delin Capital Asset Management Europa Immobiliare No. 1 Business Park Flight Forum 15 Source: DTZ Zadelhoff, 2013 Relatively new investors too, such as Aspen and Delin Capital, are were all new developments, at any rate buildings less than 10 years attracted to the stable Dutch logistics market. Vacancy is low old. Since goods flows can be monitored fairly accurately to allow (approx. 7%) and does not exceed 10% in any region. During the logistics hotspots to be readily identified, we see that the demand past few years only very little logistics space has been added to the from investors focuses virtually exclusively on these hotspots. High stock. New developments are only built if there is already a user prices are still offered for new developments with long-term leases. lined up, and the building is also constructed to the logistics user s We expect a greater availability in the older segment and more specifications (built-to-suit). pressure on parties to sell these types of buildings. The difference in initial yields between old and new property will therefore widen As a result, we are already seeing a new generation of distribution even further. centres. These buildings are situated at distribution hubs, known as 'hotspots', such as in the port of Rotterdam or at Schiphol or along major motorways in Brabant and Limburg towards Germany and France. These buildings are at the right height and have modem facilities with sustainable, energy-efficient installations. As a result, some of the existing logistics buildings are becoming outdated and would appear only to be let if a logistics service provider has an urgent need for space or can rent the property on a short-term contract at a low price. Demand from investors focuses above all on new, modern distribution centres. The top 5 transactions this year Availability meets demand 18 Tesla EU megacenter in Tilburg

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20 Residential investments: politically sensitive The residential investment market is gaining ground, both in relation to the total volume of property investments as well as in absolute terms. Last year EUR 1.2 billion was invested in residential property, some 11% more than in Residential: top 5 largest investment transactions (in millions of euros), 2012 City Purchaser Vendor Property Purchase price Leiden, Rotterdam Bouwfonds REIM Vesteda Stevenshof, Groenendaal 51 Amsterdam Zuidoost Axcellent Spinozacampus Duwo Rochdale 50 Amstelveen Altera Vastgoed De Nijs Laan van de Helende Meesters 27 Amsterdam Altera Vastgoed De Key Keyzer 21 The Hague Bouwfonds REIM Bouwinvest Morgenstond 18 Source: DTZ Zadelhoff, 2013 Demand for residential investments focuses above all on new homes in the Randstad conurbation. Many institutional investors want to expand and rejuvenate their residential portfolio. Syntrus Achmea is particularly active in this area, but ASR, MN, Altera and CBRE Global Investors too are investing heavily in new residential developments. The dynamics of the housing market have changed, however. The private market for owner-occupied homes is stagnating, which means that it has become a less attractive proposition for investors to sell off their properties as separate units, and so housing complexes are now being sold on the basis of long-term leases to both institutional and private investors. Because of the standstill in the market for owner-occupied property and the proposed government measures which restrict the financing of such homes, rented homes are increasing in popularity. Based on demographic developments, it is relatively easy to track where the demand for housing will develop. Consumer demand for housing is in fact increasing as the number of households rises. Demand will focus on other types of homes because the composition of households is changing. For example, as there is a considerable demand for student accommodation, it is not surprising that the largest transactions in 2012 were for student housing. These concerned a new development in Amsterdam Zuidoost. The government has a strong influence on developments in the housing market. Proposed government measures aim to create a better functioning rented housing market, which will make it possible to raise rents on social housing occupied by tenants who are currently paying rents that are too low in comparison to their income. As a result, households in the regulated rented sector will be more inclined to move to homes which meet their needs better, because the subsidy which was linked to the social rented home will be reduced. This will also reduce the differences between the regulated and deregulated rented sector on the one hand and the owner-occupier housing sector on the other hand. Government proposals also have major consequences for investors, and above all for housing associations, as they will affect the structure of the residential investment market and the role of housing associations will be reduced. A number of large housing associations are having to deal with huge financial problems, such as Vestia, which in turn affects the entire sector. The surcharge on rents that are too low in comparison to the occupier s level of income, which is intended to compensate for this levy and where the higher incomes are required to pay extra rent, is only an attractive option in areas where there is rent potential. In the remoter areas of the Netherlands and in many working-class neighbourhoods where housing associations are particularly active, this scope is not available. In addition, regulated rents are maximized to 4.5% of the value under the Valuation of Immovable Property Act. This implies that such homes with a value up to EUR 177,000 will make up the regulated housing stock, which leads to problems with the development of student accommodation and starter homes which can no longer be developed cost-effectively. The consequence is that investors fear that rents may fall in some cases. As many institutional investors look to rejuvenate their portfolios by disposing of older, existing housing complexes and because a few housing associations, as a result of liquidity problems, are being forced to sell large parts of their housing stock, we expect the availability of housing in the investment market to increase in Because of this increase in the availability and the fact that the private investor, who is active in this segment above all, will be hampered in its ability to acquire finance and sell off the homes in individual units, the prices will be subjected to further downward pressure. Yield expectations will have to be adjusted, with lower prices the result. On the other hand, demand for new homes remains high. Availability meets demand 20