PROJECTED OUTLOOK FOR NEXT GENERATION AND ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORTATION FUELS IN CALIFORNIA EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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1 PROJECTED OUTLOOK FOR NEXT GENERATION AND ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORTATION FUELS IN CALIFORNIA EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2 RESEARCH DIRECTOR: Dr. Wallace Walrod Orange County Business Council PRIMARY AUTHOR: Shane Stephens-Romero, Advanced Power and Energy Program University of California, Irvine Shane Stephens-Romero, Principal Author, is a researcher and PhD Candidate in Environmental Engineering at the Advanced Power and Energy Program (APEP) at the University of California, Irvine. During his PhD studies, he has Engineering from UC Irvine, and a Bachelor s degree in Chemistry from Vassar College. CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS: Steve Mazor Jonathan Leonard TIAX LLC State University, Fullerton, and a Bachelors degree in Biology from the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. The Advanced Power and Energy Program (APEP) at the University of California, Irvine addresses the development, program foci that address: Fuel Cell Science and Technology Bio-mass and Fossil Energy Systems Sustainable Energy -2-

3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS, CONTRIBUTORS, AND REVIEWERS Research and preparation of this report has been managed by Dr. Wallace Walrod (Orange County Business Council) and Principal Author Shane Stephens-Romero, researcher with the Advanced Power and Energy Program (APEP) at the University of California, Irvine and included input from a group of experts including report co-authors Steve Mazor (Chief Automotive Engineer and Director, Automotive Research Center, Automobile Club of Southern California) and Jon Leonard (Director in the Transportation and Energy group of Tiax, LLC ) and reviewed by Dr. Scott Samuelsen, Director of APEP, and Dr. Tim Brown, Senior Scientist with APEP. These experts provided guidance, direction, and review in the development of this report, and without their input this report would not have been possible. The views of the overall report reflect the views of the principal author alone

4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Global climate instability caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions The need for long-term energy security (including energy independence) Gasoline and diesel currently comprise about 99% of the fuel mix in California. While California houses most of its own refining capacity, only 40% of petroleum consumed is produced in state. 15% is imported from Alaska and 45% is imported from foreign countries, primarily Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Ecuador. The light-duty vehicle sector is the largest contributors to GHG emissions in California while heavy-duty vehicles account for more than 4 billion gallons of diesel nitrogen (NOX). POLICY FRAMEWORK IN CALIFORNIA Historically, policies implemented by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) have been the principal driver for many Vehicle (ZEV) and Low Emission Vehicle (LEV) programs, the Pavley bill, and the low carbon fuel standard. While the Assembly Bill (AB) 118 program. AB 118 allocates $200 million annually over 7 years to be administered by the CEC ALTERNATIVE FUELS AND VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES and challenges associated with each fuel and vehicle technology. There are also different degrees to which each -4-

5 ECONOMICS AND INVESTMENT TRENDS California s investments have generally favored fuels and technologies that favor electric drive vehicles in the light-duty sector, while in buses investments have favored natural gas technologies as well as electric drive. In the heavy-duty sector investments have favored natural gas infrastructure and truck technology, principally through AB 118 funds administered by the CEC. billions of US dollars in electric drive and zero emission vehicle technology such as fuel cell vehicles. Similarly, stricter PROJECTED OUTLOOK FOR FUEL MIX is expected to reduce the overall energy requirements from the light-duty vehicle sector compared to the business- for the vast majority of fuel used in California in

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