The hazard of Global Bleaching in Belize Barrier Reef

Transcription

1 P E T I T I O N TO THE WORLD HERITAGE COMMITTEE REQUESTING INCLUSION OF BELIZE BARRIER REEF RESERVE SYSTEM IN THE LIST OF WORLD HERITAGE IN DANGER AS A RESULT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOR PROTECTIVE MEASURES & ACTIONS November 15, 2004 FROM: Belize Institute of Environmental Law and Policy (BELPO) P.O. Box 54, San Ignacio, Cayo District, Belize, Central America Telephone: (501) (501) belpobz@starband.net TO: World Heritage Committee UNESCO World Heritage Centre 7, place de Fontenoy 7532 Paris 07 SP France

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3 Table of Contents Executive Summary 3 I. Legal Framework to list the Belize Barrier Reef on the List of World Heritage in Danger... 5 A. Right of Non-Governmental Organizations to Petition 5 B. List of World Heritage in Danger 5 C. Criteria for Listing a Site... 5 D. Site Requirements 5 E. Supplementary Factors. 6 F. Inclusion Criteria for Natural Properties... 6 II. Climate Change and its Science 7 A. Climate Change Science Has a Long Pedigree... 7 B. Climate Change Science Has Strengthened in Legally Significant Ways since III. IV. Satisfaction of Requirements and Supplementary Factors to List the Belize Barrier Reef as World Heritage in Danger 10 A. The Belize Barrier Reef is on the World Heritage List. 10 B. The Belize Barrier Reef is Threatened by Serious and Specific Danger Threats to the Belize Barrier Reef 12 a. Climate Change and the Oceans. 12 b. Climate Change and Coral Bleaching 13 c. Additional Threats to the Reef and the Compounding Effects of Climate Change 17 i. Overfishing 17 ii. Pollution 19 iii. Coral Disease 20 iv. Increased Coastal Development/Tourism. 21 v. Multiple Threats Make the Reef Less Resilient to Climate Change Impacts Threats to the Belize Barrier Reef Amount to Ascertained & Potential Dangers 23 a. Ascertained Danger. 23 b. Potential Danger C. Major Operations are Necessary for the Conservation of the Belize Barrier Reef Program for Corrective Measures at the Belize Barrier Reef..25 a. Enhance Protection From Other Threats to the Reef System Health so that Corals will be More Resilient to Climate change 26 b. Mitigate Climate Change Impacts by Extending MPA Protection to Least Affected Areas..27 c. Establish a Coral Bleaching Response Program d. Improve efforts at Research, Monitoring, and Education Global Response 29 D. Request for Assistance for Protection of the Belize Barrier Reef...31 Conclusion

4 The World Heritage Committee should uphold its duty under Article 11(4) of the World Heritage Convention to add the Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System (Belize Barrier Reef) to the List of World Heritage in Danger. The Belize Institute of Environmental Law and Policy (BELPO), a non-governmental organization incorporated in 1995 in Belize to promote the development and enforcement of environmental laws, petitions the World Heritage Committee to uphold its duty under Article 11(4) of the 1972 Convention Concerning the Protection of the World Cultural and Natural Heritage (World Heritage Convention) to list the Belize Barrier Reef as World Heritage in Danger due to the serious and specific, ascertained and potential dangers from the combined effects of global climate change. 1 The unique and diverse Belize Barrier Reef community is currently facing serious and specific danger due to the effects of global climate change. The Site faces additional threats, including pollution, coral disease, coastal development, increased tourism impacts, especially cruise ship tourism, and over fishing, that have weakened and will continue to further weaken the resiliency of the reef system. These threats compound the danger of global climate change by making the reef more vulnerable to its effects. Global climate change is a real and serious threat, particularly to sensitive coral reef ecosystems like that of the Belize Barrier Reef. Numerous recent scientific studies identify climate change as the greatest future threat to the world s coral reefs and to the Belize Barrier Reef. 2 Climate change can cause a phenomenon known as coral bleaching that eventually leads to changes in ecosystem composition and mortality of corals. 3 Coral bleaching has resulted in a 50% reduction in live coral cover in some areas at the Belize Barrier Reef. 4 If the World Heritage Committee and the Government of Belize do not take action now to combat the direct and compounding effects of climate change, the unique 1 Work on this petition began as an idea presented at the non-governmental organization Environmental Law Alliance Worldwide (E-LAW) 2002 annual meeting in Guadalajara, Mexico, which BELPO attended. Work began with the efforts of the University of Florida/University of Costa Rica Joint Program in Environmental Law and its Conservation Clinic to evaluate the legal status of protection of the entire Mesoamerican reef system. Research support was provided by the University of Florida/University of Costa Rica Joint Program in Environmental Law and Conservation Clinic: Erika Zimmerman, J.D. Candidate (zimmere@ufl.edu); Thomas T. Ankersen, Director (ankersen@law.ufl.edu) edu/summer_costarica]. Working with BELPO and other environmental law NGOs, the Joint Program Conservation Clinic in Costa Rica helped to examine different threats to the multi-national reef system. Support to the Joint Program from the John D. and Katherine T. MacArthur Foundation and to E-LAW from the Summitt Foundation allowed the participation of environmental lawyers from each of the reef countries, including Belize. 2 See e.g. Kramer, Philip A. and Patricia Richards Kramer. Ecoregional Conservation Planning for the Mesoamerican Caribbean Reef (MACR), 15 (May 2002) ; See also Wilkinson, Clive, Chapter 1- Coral Bleaching and Mortality- the 1998 Event 4 Years Later and Bleaching to Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2002, 43, Pomerance, Rafe. Coral Bleaching, Coral Mortality, and Global Climate Change Report presented to the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force. (5 March 1999), Hoegh-Guldberg, O. Climate Change: Coral bleaching and the future of the world s coral reefs. Marine and Freshwater Research 50: (1999), Smith, S.V. and Buddemeier, R.W Global change and coral reef ecosystems. Annual Review of Ecological Systems 23: ; Pew Oceans Commission. America s Living Oceans: Chartering A Course for Sea Change. A Report to the Nation: Recommendations for a New National Ocean Policy (May 2003). 3 Wilkinson, Clive, Chapter 1- Coral Bleaching and Mortality- the 1998 Event 4 Years Later and Bleaching to Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2002, 43 [hereinafter Wilkinson, Coral Bleaching]. 4 Almada-Villela, Patricia & Melanie McField, Phillip Kramer, Patricia Richards Kramer, and Ernesto Arias-Gonzalez Chapter 16- Status of Coral Reefs of MesoAmerica: Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador. Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2002, 314.

5 character and diversity of the Site, which warrants its listing as a World Heritage Site, may be lost forever. Action must be taken at the local level to make ecosystems more resilient to the effects of climate change. The World Heritage Committee should list the Belize Barrier Reef as World Heritage in Danger to acknowledge the effects of global climate change on the Site as well as to implement an immediate program of corrective measures to bolster the reef against these climate change effects. 5

6 I. Legal Framework to list the Belize Barrier Reef on the List of World Heritage in Danger A. Right of Non-Governmental Organizations to Petition Pursuant to the Information Kit: the List of World Heritage in Danger, private individuals, non-governmental organizations, or other groups, as well as a State Party, may inform the World Heritage Committee of existing threats to World Heritage Sites. B. List of World Heritage in Danger Article 11(4) of the World Heritage Convention states that the Intergovernmental Committee for the Protection of the Cultural and Natural Heritage of Outstanding Universal Value (World Heritage Committee) shall establish, keep up to date and publish, whenever circumstances shall so require, under the title List of World Heritage in Danger, a list of the property appearing in the World Heritage List for the conservation of which major operations are necessary and for which assistance has been requested under this Convention. C. Criteria for Listing a Site Pursuant to Article 11(5), the World Heritage Committee defines criteria for the listing of a World Heritage Site on the World Heritage in Danger List. These criteria and associated provisions are provided in Section III, paragraphs of the Operational Guidelines for Implementation of the World Heritage Convention (Operational Guidelines). D. Site Requirements The Operational Guidelines (80) sets out four requirements that a site must meet before the World Heritage Committee can consider its inclusion on the List of World Heritage in Danger in accordance with Article 11(4). The four requirements are as follows: 1. the property under consideration is on the World Heritage List; 2. the property is threatened by serious and specific danger; 3. major operations are necessary for the conservation of the property; 4. assistance under the Convention has been requested for the property; the Committee is of the view that its assistance in certain cases may most effectively be limited to messages of its concern, including the message sent by inclusion of a site on the List of World Heritage in Danger and that such assistance may be requested by any Committee member or the Secretariat. 6

7 E. Supplementary Factors The Committee may keep in mind discretionary factors provided by Operational Guidelines (85) when considering the inclusion of a site. These supplementary factors are: a. Decisions that affect World Heritage properties are taken by Governments after balancing all factors. The advice of the World Heritage Committee can often be decisive if it can be given before the property becomes threatened. b. Particularly in the case of ascertained danger, the physical or cultural deterioration to which a property has been subjected should be judged according to the intensity of its effects and analyzed case by case. c. Above all in the case of potential danger, one should consider that: i. the threat should be appraised according to the normal evolution of the social and economic framework in which the property is situated; ii. it is often impossible to assess certain threats as to their effect on cultural or natural properties iii. some threats are not imminent in nature, but can only be anticipated, such as demographic growth. d. Finally, in its appraisal the Committee should take into account any cause of unknown or unexpected origin which endangers a cultural or natural property. F. Inclusion Criteria for Natural Properties The Operational Guidelines (81) provides that the Committee can enter a property on the List of World Heritage in Danger when it finds that the condition of the property corresponds to at least one of the following criteria. The relevant criteria that warrant the listing of the Belize Barrier Reef are listed below: Operational Guidelines (83) In the case of natural properties: i. ASCERTAINED DANGER- The property is faced with specific and proven imminent danger, such as: a. A serious decline in the population of the endangered species or the other species of outstanding universal value which the property was legally established to protect, either by natural factors such as disease or by man-made factors such as poaching. b. Severe deterioration of the natural beauty or scientific value of the property, as by human settlement, construction of reservoirs which flood important parts of the property, industrial and agricultural development including use of pesticides and fertilizers, major public works, mining, pollution, logging, firewood collection, etc. 7

8 c. Human encroachment on boundaries or in upstream areas which threaten the integrity of the property. ii. POTENTIAL DANGER- The property is faced with major threats, which could have deleterious effects on its inherent characteristics. Such threats are, for example:... b. planned resettlement or development projects within the property or so situated that the impacts threaten the property;... d. the management plan is lacking or inadequate, or not fully implemented. II. Climate Change and its Science Climate change, particularly in the form of higher sea surface temperatures and higher atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), leads to coral bleaching and decreased carbonate saturation, respectively. Before submitting (in section III) how the conditions for danger listing are met, we set out in this section some of the basics of climate change and its science, with a focus on these two aspects relevant to coral reefs. We show that climate change science has a long pedigree that it has strengthened in legally significant ways since 1988, that climate change in respect of these two aspects is real and will get worse, and that human activities lie at the heart of the problem. A. Climate Change Science Has a Long Pedigree The science of climate change has come a long way since Benjamin Franklin began his climate studies in 1763: since the first description of the greenhouse effect, the first calculation of global warming from human emissions of CO 2 and the first modeling for global carbon exchange including feedbacks during the 19 th century, and since the argument of Callendar in 1938 that CO 2 greenhouse global warming was underway. Accelerated development of the science during the 1950s and 1960s led to the establishment in 1967 of the International Global Atmospheric Research Program and the creation in 1970 of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, followed by the landmark 1971 Study of Man s Impact on Climate (SMIC) conference of leading scientists which reported a danger of rapid and serious global change caused by humans and called for an organized research effort. In 1979, the first World Climate Conference was held in Geneva, and the World Climate Research Programme was launched to coordinate international research, at the same time as the U.S. National Academy of Sciences found it highly credible that doubling CO 2 will bring 1.5º- 4.5ºC global warming. 5 5 The information in the preceding three paragraphs has been taken from the American Institute of Physics Discovery of Global Warming: Timeline of Milestones. Available at 8

9 In 1988, the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to assess the science of climate change, and its impacts, mitigation and adaptation options, amongst other tasks. B. Climate Change Science Has Strengthened in Legally Significant Ways Since 1988 In its First Assessment Report in 1990, the IPCC said: Our judgment is that: Global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.3ºC to 0.6ºC over the last 100 years, with the five global average warmest years being in the 1980s. Over the same period, global sea level has increased by 10-20cm. These increases have not been smooth in time or uniform over the globe. The size of this warming is broadly consistent with predictions of climate models, but it is also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability. Thus, the observed increase could be largely due to this natural variability; alternatively this variability and other human factors could have offset a still larger human-induced greenhouse warming. The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more. 6 [Emphasis added] In its Second Assessment Report (SAR), in 1996, the IPCC, having noted that [c]onsiderable progress has been made in the understanding of climate change science since 1990 and new data and analyses have become available 7, essentially confirmed its 1990 judgment on temperature increase, increased the range of global sea level rise over the last 100 years to 10-25cm, and said that: Our ability to quantify the human influence on global climate is currently limited because the expected signal is still emerging from the noise of natural variability, and because there are uncertainties in key factors. These include the magnitude and patterns of long term natural variability and the time-evolving pattern of forcing by, and response to, changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and land surface changes. Nevertheless, the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate. 8 [Emphasis added]. In 2001, the IPCC published its Third Assessment Report (TAR) which indicated that since the SAR there was new evidence, improved understanding, and reduced uncertainty, supporting an updated conclusion; and for the first time, percentage confidence ranges were assigned to almost all the key findings and projections. The latter is of particular legal relevance as civil tribunals commonly require facts to be proved on the balance of probabilities, or on the preponderance of the evidence crudely, that a fact is 51% certain to be true. 6 IPCC First Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Executive Summary, at xii. 7 IPCC, Second Assessment Report, 1995, Summary for Policymakers, at 3. 8 IPCC, Second Assessment Report, 1995, Summary for Policymakers, at 5. 9

10 Some of the key findings are set out below, divided into those relating to increases in (1) temperature and (2) atmospheric concentrations of CO 2: 9 Key findings on temperature increases: The global average surface temperature (over land and sea) has increased over the 20 th century by about 0.6ºC, ±0.2ºC, with most of the warming occurring between and In the light of new evidence since the Second Assessment Report and taking into account remaining uncertainties, most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations (67-90% confidence). Globally the 1990s were the warmest decade since 1861 (90-99% confidence), including the Northern Hemisphere (67-90% confidence). The temperature increase in the 20 th century is the largest of any century in the last 1,000 years (67-90% confidence). Global ocean heat content has increased since the late 1950s, the period for which adequate observations of sub-surface ocean temperatures have been available. More than half of the increase in heat content has occurred in the upper 300m of the ocean, equivalent to a rate of temperature increase in this layer of about 0.04ºC/decade. Warm episodes of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon (which consistently affects regional variations of precipitation and temperature over much of the tropics, sub-tropics and some mid-latitude areas) have been more frequent, persistent, and intense since the mid-1970s, compared with the previous 100 years. Emissions of greenhouse gases (in particular, CO 2, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone and halocarbons) and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate. The global average surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8ºC from This is much larger than the observed changes during the 20 th century and is without precedent during at least the last 10,000 years (90-99% confidence). Key findings on atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 : The atmospheric concentration of CO 2 has increased by 31% since 1750 from about 280 ppm in pre-industrial times to 365 ppm in This concentration has not been exceeded during the past 420,000 years and likely (i.e., 67-90% confidence) not during the past 20 million years. The current rate of increase is unprecedented, at least during the past 20,000 years. 9 IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Houghton, J.T., Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C.A. Johnson (eds.)] (Summary for Policymakers). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 881 pp. Available at 10

11 The annual average concentration increase over the period was 0.4%, with an annual rate of concentration increase of 1.5 ppm over the period About 75% of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions to the atmosphere from were due to fossil fuel burning. Currently, the ocean and the land together take up about half of the anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. By 2100, models project atmospheric CO 2 concentrations of ppm for the range of illustrative scenarios: a % increase above the pre-industrial level of 280 ppm. After taking uncertainties, especially about the magnitude of climate feedbacks from the terrestrial biosphere, into account, the models project concentrations of ppm or a % increase. Stabilization of atmospheric concentrations at 450, 650 or 1,000 ppm would require global anthropogenic CO 2 emissions to drop below 1990 levels, within a few decades, about a century, or about two centuries, respectively, and continue to decrease steadily thereafter. Eventually CO 2 emissions would need to decline to a very small fraction of current emissions. We next show how increases in temperature and in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses affect coral reefs in general and the Belize Barrier Reef in particular, in the context of submitting that the requirements and supplementary factors in relation to listing the Reef as a World Heritage Site in Danger are satisfied. III. Satisfaction of Requirements and Supplementary Factors to List the Belize Barrier Reef as World Heritage in Danger The Belize Barrier Reef satisfies all four listing criteria and the supplementary factors in accordance with the Operational Guidelines and is thus eligible for inclusion on the List of World Heritage in Danger. This section of the petition below articulates the factors that satisfy each of these four requirements for the Belize Barrier Reef Site. A. The Belize Barrier Reef is on the World Heritage List [Operational Guidelines (80)(i)] The Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System was inscribed on the World Heritage Site List in 1996 under three natural criteria set out in the Operational Guidelines (40)(a): (ii) be an outstanding example representing significant on-going ecological and biological processes in the evolution and development of terrestrial, fresh water, coastal and marine ecosystems, and communities of plants and animals; (iii) contain superlative natural phenomena or areas of exceptional natural beauty and aesthetic importance; and (iv) contain the most important and significant natural habitats for in-situ conservation of biological diversity, including those containing threatened species of outstanding universal value from the point of view of science or conservation. The Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System is listed as a serial nomination consisting of seven sites. The seven sites are Bacalar Chico National Park and Marine Reserve, 11

12 Laughing Bird Caye National Park, Half Moon Caye Natural Monument, Blue Hole Natural Monument, Glovers Reef Marine Reserve, South Water Caye Marine Reserve, and Sapodilla Cayes Marine Reserve. 10 The Committee acknowledged that the seven sites illustrate the evolutionary history of reef development and are a significant habitat for threatened species, including marine turtles, manatees and the American marine crocodile. The Committee further recognized the Belize Barrier Reef as the largest barrier reef in the Northern Hemisphere and a classic example of reefs through fringing, barrier, and atoll reef types. 11 B. The Belize Barrier Reef is Threatened by Serious and Specific Danger [Operational Guidelines (80)(ii)] The compounding effects of climate change in conjunction with the other threats to the reef, both singly and in combination, represent specific and proven threats that create an ascertained danger defined by Operational Guidelines (83)(i) as specific and proven imminent threats. Global and site specific scientific studies demonstrate that the Belize Barrier Reef is faced with the specific and imminent threat of coral bleaching due to climate change. Further, the List of World Heritage in Danger also recognizes potential danger in Operational Guidelines 83(ii) where the property is faced with major threats which could have deleterious effects on its inherent characteristics. Numerous scientific studies on the coral reefs of the world, and particularly in Belize, show that climate change represents the greatest future threat to coral reefs. 12 Studies show that coral bleaching and disease are occurring in the Belize Barrier Reef, leading to changes in the composition of the ecosystem as well as to mortality of corals. 13 In addition, Operational Guidelines (85)(a) recommends that the Committee also take into account any cause of unknown or unexpected origin which endangers a cultural or natural property. Thus, even if the Committee does not find that climate change is an ascertained danger on the Belize Barrier Reef, the factual existence of coral bleaching and disease including degradation and mortality at the Site 14 warrant its listing under potential danger. The Committee should therefore list the Belize Barrier Reef as World Heritage in Danger on the basis of the ascertained danger of climate change impacts or, 10 UNEP, World Conservation Centre. Available at 11 UNEP, World Conservation Centre. Available at 12 See supra note See Aronson, Richard B. & William F. Precht, Ian G. Macintyre, and Thaddeus J.T. Murdoch. Coral bleach-out in Belize. Nature Vol.405. May 2000.; See also Kramer, Phillip and Patricia Richards Kramer, Ernesto Arias-Gonzalez, and Melanie McField, Chapter 16- Status of Coral Reefs of Northern Central America: Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador. Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2000; Kramer, Philip A. and Patricia Richards Kramer. Ecoregional Conservation Planning for the Mesoamerican Caribbean Reef (MACR), 14 (May 2002); Aronson, R.B & W.F. Precht, M.A. Toscano, and K.H. Koltes. The 1998 bleaching event and its aftermath on a coral reef in Belize. Marine Biology 141: (2002); Almada-Villela, Patricia & Melanie McField, Phillip Kramer, Patricia Richards Kramer, and Ernesto Arias-Gonzalez Chapter 16- Status of Coral Reefs of MesoAmerica: Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador. Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2002, 314; Aronson, RB & WF Precht, 2001, White-band disease and the changing face of Caribbean coral reefs, Hydrobiogia 460: Id. 12

13 alternatively, on the basis of potential danger due to present and future coral bleaching and its nexus to inevitable climate change. 1. Threats to the Belize Barrier Reef a. CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE OCEANS It is initially helpful to place the threat of climate change to the Belize Barrier Reef in the context of the implications of climate change for the oceans. In the words of UNESCO s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission 15 : [I]f the current trend of global warming continues, it has been determined that impacts will include: Sea level rise: As the sea warms up, the water expands and polar ice melts. Thus, coastal areas will be modified (with uncertain consequences) and the reduction of ice coverage in the polar regions could fuel the global warming process, as polar ice reflects much of the sun's radiance away from the earth, thus mediating the temperature of the atmosphere. Currents: As the oceans warm there will also be changes in their distribution of heat and salt concentrations that will alter the way the oceans flow around the globe, the results of which include interference with ecosystems and changes in weather patterns (temperatures and precipitation). Fisheries: The ocean s biological populations are sensitive to and dependent upon the physical processes of the ocean, and will be impacted by the changing of the currents and the predicted increase of extreme weather events. The collapse of the Peruvian fishery as a result of the severe 1998/99 El Niño event is an example of this. Coral reef ecosystems: Corals are susceptible to rising temperatures and die when the water becomes too warm, via a process called coral bleaching. Furthermore, coral reefs support an incredibly diverse ecosystem. Thus coral bleaching has implications that extend beyond the isolated deaths of corals, it jeopardizes the life of the entire ecosystem. Diseases: Warmer oceans create an increased opportunity for diseases such as cholera and shellfish poisoning, as well as optimize conditions for harmful algal blooms, which have impacts on both human and marine life. 13 UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission. Available at 13

14 b. CLIMATE CHANGE AND CORAL BLEACHING: In the Status of the Coral Reefs of the World: 2002 report 16, the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network (GCRMN) concluded that [t]he increasing evidence is that coral reefs are bearing the brunt of Global Climate Change in the marine environment and the prognosis for reefs... is grim. 17 The report further stresses that [t]he major concern is that we may be in a period of accelerating ocean warming and more frequent coral bleaching events that could cause serious damage to reefs, not in decade scales but in the next few years. Support for the report indicates a strong need for remediation strategies and that this position is now the consensus position of most coral reef scientists and managers around the world. 18 i. Effects of Coral Bleaching Global climate change is thought by many leading scientists to be the major cause of numerous massive coral bleaching events. 19 Coral bleaching occurs when corals lose their symbiont algae, zooxanthellae, which cause the corals to turn white as the skeleton reflects through the tissue. The photosynthetic zooxanthellae are necessary to provide energy and oxygen for the growth and formation of the calcium carbonate skeleton that forms the coral colony. Coral bleaching is a response of the coral to environmental stress. 20 These stresses include changes in temperature, salinity, light, sedimentation, aerial exposure, and pollutants. The most common cause of coral bleaching is a response to higher temperatures and/or higher incident solar radiation. 21 As a likely response to climate change, coral bleaching has become more frequent in coral reefs around the world over the past two decades. 22 While some corals can recover from bleaching events over time, prolonged or repeated bleaching episodes will eventually lead to coral mortality. 23 Recent modeling estimates show that an increase in mean sea surface temperature of only 2ºF (1ºC) could cause global destruction of coral reef ecosystems 24, including the Belize Barrier Reef. Studies in the Mesoamerican Caribbean Reef (MACR), the 1,000 km reef system along the coastlines of Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, and Honduras to which the Belize Barrier Reef belongs, predict that future bleaching events are perhaps the greatest future threat to the eco-region s coral reefs. 25 The study determined that the frequency and intensity of 16 Wilkinson, Coral Bleaching, supra note 3, at Id. 18 Id. 19 See e.g. Pomerance, Rafe. Coral Bleaching, Coral Mortality, and Global Climate Change Report presented to the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force. (5 March 1999). 20 Brown, B. and J. Ogden. Coral bleaching. Scientific American, (January 1993). 21 Glynn, P.W. Coral-Reef Bleaching-Ecological Perspectives. Coral Reefs 12(1):1-17 (March 1993). 22 Id. 23 Aronson, Richard B. & William F. Precht, Ian G. Macintyre, and Thaddeus J.T. Murdoch. Coral bleach-out in Belize. Nature Vol.405. May [hereinafter Aronson, Coral bleach-out] 24 Hoegh-Guldberg, O. Climate Change: Coral bleaching and the future of the world s coral reefs. Marine and Freshwater Research 50: (1999). 25 See e.g. Kramer, Philip A. and Patricia Richards Kramer. Ecoregional Conservation Planning for the Mesoamerican Caribbean Reef (MACR), 14 (May 2002) [hereinafter MACR]. 14

15 disturbances to the region s reefs have recently increased, including several reefs affected by repeated and/or coinciding events. 26 ii. Effects of Rising Atmospheric CO 2 Besides the effects of increasing temperatures, scientists have indicated that the rise in atmospheric CO 2 alone represents a significant threat to coastal marine ecosystems by reducing the ability of marine organisms to replace themselves. One study concludes that regardless of any remaining disagreements over the magnitude and importance of climate change, the continued rise in atmospheric CO 2, itself, will have direct and dramatic effect on marine ecosystems. 27 Rising CO 2 levels will cause decreased carbonate saturation in the ocean that will inhibit calcareous organisms, including corals, from being able to deposit calcium carbonate. Without this reef-building ability, corals will not be able to replace themselves and as water levels rise due to increased sea level, corals will basically drown. High CO 2 partial pressures may also physiologically impair some coral species by causing intracellular and blood-acid base imbalance, which may decrease growth rates or cause reduction in reproductive potential. Further, rising CO 2 may also effect the coral reef community composition within the ecosystem by shifting the latitudinal and vertical distributions of species, which could result in the decline of some fisheries. The study states that [d]ecreased ph and carbonate saturation state in the upper ocean waters are a chemical certainty with negative ecological impacts that are only a question of time and scale. Regardless of any dramatic changes in global CO 2 emissions, the already measurable changes in CO 2 and carbonate saturation rate will continue to grow in severity, having negative consequences for the marine environment and particularly coral reefs. 28 Projections for increases in CO 2 over the next fifty years indicate that concentrations will exceed those experienced by corals for the last half million years. 29 iii. Effects of the 1998 Mass Bleaching Event on Coral Reefs in Belize In 1998, severe bleaching of corals occurred worldwide, with a 16% loss in the world s reefbuilding corals, after the highest sea surface temperatures on record. 30 The high temperatures were related to both El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and to global warming. 31 One report concluded that only anthropogenic global warming could have induced such extensive coral bleaching simultaneously throughout the disparate reef regions of the world. 32 In Belize, the results were catastrophic. The 1998 event caused mass mortality of scleractinian (hard) corals on Belize lagoon reefs, which was the first time that a coral 26 Id. 27 Seibel, Brad A. and Victoria J. Fabry. Chapter 8: Marine Biotic Response to Elevated Carbon Dioxide. Advances in Applied Biodiversity Science. No. 4, (August 2003). 28 Id. at Wilkinson, Coral Bleaching supra note 3, at Kramer, Phillip and Patricia Richards Kramer, Ernesto Arias-Gonzalez, and Melani McField, Chapter 16- Status of Coral Reefs of Northern Central America: Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador. Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2000, Pomerance, Rafe. Coral Bleaching, Coral Mortality, and Global Climate Change Report presented to the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force (5 March 1999). 32 Id. 15

16 population in the Caribbean has collapsed completely from bleaching. 33 Temperatures at the reef were historically rarely higher than 29ºC but exceeded 30ºC during the summer of A study of sediment cores extracted from below the reef showed that in the past 3,000 years, no other events of this nature have occurred on the reef. 35 The combination of the 1998 bleaching event followed by Hurricane Mitch, which hit the reef in October of 1998, resulted in devastating loss of corals, including 50% reduction in living coral cover in some locations. Massive bleaching occurred on both the forereef and lagoon. While most of the forereef corals recovered with some partial mortality, the reefs in the central Belize lagoon experienced heavy mortality. 36 Until the 1998 event, most corals in Belize had recovered from smaller bleaching events, including an event in Bleaching in 1998 had a more severe impact with a lack of recovery of affected corals because the high sea surface temperatures and amount of irradiance persisted at elevated levels for a longer period than in previous years, months as opposed to days. From late August through October 1998, temperatures remained high enough for a sufficient period to lead to coral mortality. 38 The 50% reduction in live coral cover that occurred in Belize between 1997 and 1999 is still evident. Over the past few years, the affected corals have been colonized by algae rather than growth of new corals. In parts of southern Belize, coral losses were as high as 75%. 39 The most abundant coral on this section of the reef before the event, the lettuce coral Agaricia tenuifolia, experienced almost complete mortality at all depths. One study of the coral bleach-out in Belize concluded that the results justify concerns that climate change is degrading coral reef ecosystems. 40 In addition, the 1998 coral bleaching event altered the benthic community composition of the Belize Barrier Reef ecosystem. 41 After the mass mortality of corals in 1998, the grazing sea urchin Echinometra virdis limited the growth of macroalgae in the open spaces. The Agaricia tenuifolia which was almost completely wiped out, although prone to bleaching, has the ability to re-establish in such open spaces in the absence of macroalgae as it can colonize disturbed reef surfaces; however, the open space allowed the encrusting sponge Chondrilla cf. nucula to opportunistically increase, taking over the available spaces and preventing new coral growth. 42 Observations have been made that this report from Aronson only refers to the reefs of a particular faro and is not characteristic of the entire reef. Climate change not only leads to mortality of corals but also to decreased rates of coral accretion. 43 A study of the reef after the 1998 bleaching event revealed that [i]f corals are 33 Aronson, Coral bleach-out, supra note Id. 35 Id. 36 Id. 37 Id. 38 Aronson, R.B & W.F. Precht, M.A. Toscano, and K.H. Koltes. The 1998 bleaching event and its aftermath on a coral reef in Belize. Marine Biology 141: (2002). [hereinafter Aronson, 1998 bleaching event]. 39 Almada-Villela, supra note 4, at Aronson, Coral bleach-out, supra note Aronson, 1998 bleaching event, supra note Id. 43 Smith, S.V. and Buddemeier, R.W Global change and coral reef ecosystems. Annual Review of Ecological Systems 23:

17 unable to recover substantially, vertical accretion will be slowed or possibly arrested over the next several decades, at a time when sea-level rise is expected to accelerate due to global warming. 44 While the bleaching event in 1998 to date was the most severe and widespread on record, it was not an anomaly. Between 1998 and 2002, sixteen countries or territories experienced a total of seventy bleaching records. 45 In 2002, there were over 440 reports of bleaching to the comprehensive coral bleaching database ReefBase, 46 including major coral bleaching at the Great Barrier Reef in Australia where almost 60% of the total reef area was affected by bleaching. 47 The 1998 global bleaching event, which the corals in the Belize Barrier Reef have yet to fully recover from, and the 2002 major bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef are alarm calls for the future of the coral reefs as we know them. 48 iv. Climate Change is Predicted to Increase the Frequency and Intensity of Damaging ENSO Events and Hurricanes The MACR study specifically recognizes the critical role that global climate change will play in influencing the frequency and intensity of El Niño-La Niña bleaching-related events and hurricanes, as well as in potential modifications to current and wind patterns. 49 Many late season hurricanes hit Belize, causing coral damage and mortality. 50 In addition, the region has experienced recurrent bouts of coral bleaching throughout the 1980s and 90s, which have resulted in major changes in the coral populations. 51 The combination of storms and bleaching events can be devastating to corals. For example, bleaching events in conjunction with major hurricanes, Hurricane Mitch in 1998, Hurricane Keith in 2000, and Hurricane Iris in 2001, have led to the destruction of up to 75% of the corals in Belize. 52 In 2001, after a collaboration of regional scientists conducted coral reef surveys of the entire MACR from Mexico to Honduras, concern was raised about low coral cover at many sites, particularly in the sub-regions of Belize. 53 Coral cover of 25-30% would be considered good for the Caribbean; the 2001 survey observed only 12.9% average coral cover across the study sites in Belize. 54 v. Predictions for Future Climate Change Impacts Models for the next 100 years predict that bleaching will become more frequent and severe, seriously damaging coral reefs, as warming continues. 55 The Earth s climate warmed 0.6ºC over the last 100 years. There have been two main warming periods, first from and then 1976-present. The rate of warming since 1976 is doubles that of the first period 44 Aronson, 1998 bleaching event, supra note Wilkinson, supra note 3, at Available at ReefBase is a comprehensive database of records of coral bleaching containing more than 3,800 records, starting with some records from as far back as Wilkinson, Coral Bleaching supra note Id. at MACR, supra note 22, at Alamda-Villela, supra note 4, at Id. at Id. at 303, Id. at Id. at 307, Kramer, supra note

18 and exceeds that of any time within the past 1,000 years. 56 The 1990s was the warmest decade on record with a series of major El Niño events. 57 The temperature of tropical oceans has increased by 1-2ºC in the last 100 years. In the next 50 years, the frequency and duration of ENSO events is also likely to increase. 58 Computer models predict that unless global warming is stopped, bleaching events will become more intense and frequent, possibly leading to a complete global loss of corals in most areas by By the year 2030, bleaching events are predicted to occur annually in most tropical oceans; however the Caribbean reefs could be one of the first regions to experience annual bleaching events by the year As the frequency and intensity of bleaching events and hurricanes increases with global warming, the corals in the Belize Barrier Reef will be devastated without time to recover between more frequent bleaching. Scientists further predict that coral reefs worldwide will experience reductions in coral cover and local extinctions of coral species that could result in the total extinction of some coral species that have narrow distribution ranges. 60 Therefore, if climate change is not attenuated and the severity of the impacts of climate change at the Belize Barrier Reef is not mitigated, the unique and diverse ecosystem of these sites will be degraded and potentially destroyed. vi. Impacts of Coral Bleaching/Climate Change on the Belize World Heritage Site Within the Belize Barrier Reef World Heritage Site, South Water Caye Marine Reserve and Laughing Bird Caye National Park are the sites most susceptible to future bleaching events. Sapodilla Cayes Marine Reserve is susceptible to coral bleaching and experienced greater than 50% mortality during the 1998 bleaching event. Glovers Reef Marine Reserve has experienced damage from bleaching and is susceptible to future bleaching events. Half Moon Caye Natural Monument and Blue Hole Natural Monument are susceptible to coral beaching and hurricanes but have so far only experienced moderate reef damage due to bleaching, and Bacalar Chico National Park is also susceptible to future bleaching events. 61 c. ADDITIONAL THREATS TO THE REEF AND THE COMPOUNDING EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE i. OVERFISHING a. Reduction in Fish Populations The coral reefs in Belize provide an important support for many commercial and artisanal fisheries, as well as aquaculture. Belize has the highest fish diversity in the MACR; 56 Walther, Gian-Reto & Eric Post, Peter Convey, Annette Menzel, Camille Parmesan, Trevor J.C. Beebee, Jean-Marc Fromentin, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, and Franz Bairlein. Ecological Responses to Recent Climate Change. Nature 416, (March 2002). 57 Almada-Villela, supra note 4 at Walther, supra note Hoegh-Guldberg, O. Climate Change: Coral bleaching and the future of the world s coral reefs. Marine and Freshwater Research 50: (1999). 60 Wilkinson, Coral Bleaching supra note 3, at Id. 18

19 the country s commercial fishery is also expanding. 62 Artisanal fishing is substantial, and many communities have very few alternatives to fishing. Due to better technologies and increased demands, fishing pressures are increasing for targeted species including snapper, grouper, conch, and lobster. Over-exploitation of sharks and natural stocks of shrimp is definite, as well as local depletions of popular aquarium fish taken by collecting. 63 One example of the evidence of over-fishing in Belize includes the presence of more grazing in open areas by the E.virdis sea urchin due to reductions in its predators by overfishing. 64 Another example is the demonstrated variance in mean size and number of different fished species in MPAs versus nearby fished areas particularly spearfishing and targeted hook-and-line spawning aggregations; with greater mean size and number are inside the reserve Some studies suggest that the ecological extinctions and loss of ecosystem function caused by overfishing are the biggest threats to marine environments, weakening marine areas to the level that they are made susceptible to other stresses such as pollution and climate change. 65 According to FishBase and the IUCN, Belize has 554 marine and 237 reefassociated fish species. Of these species, 21 are threatened and 14 are protected under existing treaties and conventions. 66 b. Loss of Fish Spawning Aggregations Many of the fish spawning aggregation sites in Belize have now become inactive or reduced due to overfishing practices. 67 Fishing pressure is intense near spawning aggregations because they are usually located at or near recognizable cayes and atolls, and the aggregations make it possible to harvest an enormous number of fish at one time. However, this practice can remove an entire reproductively active fish population for miles. The number of aggregating Nassau Groupers (Epinephelus striatus), for example, has been depleted by 90% in Belize waters due to overfishing. 68 Belize established regulations in 2002 to protect 11 spawning sites and created a four-month closed season for grouper fishing; however, despite attempts to involve local fishers in the conservation efforts, the spawning sites are still at risk due to a lack of enforcement and awareness of the protective regulations. 69 Continued protection of grouper aggregation sites is needed for long-term conservation, as the Nassau Grouper is listed on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Animals IUCN, Fisheries Department- Hol Chan Marine Reserve. Conservation Modules: Why Local Conservation Issues in Belize?. Belize (2002). [hereinafter IUCN, Local Conservation] 63 Id. 64 Almada-Villela, supra note 4 at 306, , Pew Oceans Commission. America s Living Oceans: Chartering A Course for Sea Change. A Report to the Nation: Recommendations for a New National Ocean Policy (May 2003). 66 Almada-Villela, supra note Id. at Id. 69 National Geographic News. Belize, UN try to save reefs and help fishers Available at 70 Almada-Villela, supra note 4, at

20 c. Increased Growth of MacroAlgae Maintaining healthy fish populations is also essential to control the growth of macroalgae on coral reefs, which allows open spaces for new coral recruitment and prevents the algae from out competing corals for space and prohibiting larvae from settling. 71 Many reefs in the Caribbean, including the Belize Barrier Reef, have experienced substantial increases in macroalgal abundances over the last two decades which represent a phase shift from coral to algal dominated communities. 72 Algae are now dominant on the patch reefs, for example, at Glovers Reef World Heritage Site in Belize because of the reduced numbers of herbivorous fish that would otherwise control the growth of macroalgae by grazing. 73 This may be an oversimplification since overfishing is but one of the factors; there is a complex relationship between nitrification, herbivory and coral disease. In general, coral mortality is often followed by overgrowth of macroalgae because reduced populations of herbivores are not able to keep up with the rapid pace of the algal growth. 74 Some of the algal dominance is also attributed to the Caribbean-wide die-off due to disease in of the blackspined sea urchin, Diadema antillarum, which is one of the most important herbivores in the reef system. 75 d. Illegal Fishing Although Belize has laws designed to manage marine fisheries, including prohibitions on fishing with scuba gear, the use of nets along reefs, the use of traps outside reefs, taking conch or lobster below the legal size limit, and fishing outside closed seasons, these laws are ineffective because they are not adequately enforced. One of the biggest challenges in Belize is the need for improved enforcement and the necessary infrastructure to monitor the large reef area to reduce illegal fishing. 76 For many years, illegal fishing occurred near Sapodilla Cayes Marine Reserve and Glovers Reef Marine Reserve by fishermen from Guatemala and Honduras. Also, Mexican fisherman often illegally fish in Belize waters near Bacalar Chico National Park and Marine Reserve and have for many years. 77 e. Impacts of Overfishing on the Belize World Heritage Site Overfishing in and around the World Heritage Sites is a major problem at Glovers Reef Marine Reserve, South Water Caye Marine Reserve, Sapodilla Cayes Marine Reserve, Laughing Bird Caye National Park, and Bacalar Chico National Park and Marine Reserve. At South Water Caye, fish landings have severely declined and many historic spawning sites are now inactive. At Bacalar Chico, as fishermen have become associated with the tourism industry, fishing pressures will most likely continue increasing without the 71 Id. at Williams, I.D. and N.V.C. Polumin. Large-scale associations between macroalgal cover and grazer biomass on middepth reefs in the Caribbean. Coral Reefs : Almada-Villela, supra note 4, at Hughes, TP Catastrophes, phase shifts, and large-scale degradation of a Caribbean coral reef. Science 265: Aronson, 1998 bleaching event, supra note Id. at UNEP, World Conservation Centre. Available at 20