John Duncan 2004/2014, 1

Transcription

1 John Duncan 2004/2014, 1

2 The Football Cash Generator 2013/2014 The Grandfather of All Lay The Draw Systems Has Had a 2013/2014 Season Make-Over First published in 2003, revised in 2004, 2005 and now in 2013 You should also check out the Assured Soccer Profits System Just look at this testimonial from John Duncan John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 2

3 The Football Cash Generator (Good advice read this on your computer and use your zoom function to expand the size to see the screen shot images clearly). Contents All Rights Reserved & Important Disclaimer The Rapid Fire Condensed Summary The Strategy in Full Part 1 What is the Football Cash Generator? What do you need to use it? How About You Do It Later... Research I Know It s Boring But... Now let s get back to statistics. To quickly summarise our progress so far Part 2 The Football Cash Generator Strategy A Little Lay Bet Clarification. Part 3 The pear-shaped games that sinking feeling and exit strategies! You Must Treat This Next Section With Utter Caution Absolutely Not For The Nervous! Part 4 The Football Cash Generator Summary The Golden Rules John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 3

4 Part 5 A quick guide to some alternate powerful strategies Part 6 A Final Real life Football Cash Generator example All rights Reserved The right of John Duncan to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act No part of this publication may be reproduced, transmitted, transcribed, stored in a retrieval system or translated into any language without written permission of the copyright owner. Contravention of this copyright notice on any part of this publication will be met by immediate legal action for which the copyright owner is totally and adequately insured. Important Disclaimer The publisher and Author of this book disclaims any liability, loss or risk incurred as a consequence of the use or misuse, either directly or indirectly, of any information or advice presented in this book. This book was published and distributed on the understanding that no guarantee of earnings or promise of future profitability was given either verbally or in writing. The book simply outlines a strategy that, when followed correctly, is likely to produce a significant higher number of winning wagers to losing wagers. Although every effort has gone into providing the best strategy possible the reader needs to understand that several factors can influence the outcome of a wager on a betting exchange. Such factors would include a good and reliable internet connection, the correct understanding of whether or not a game has in-play betting options, the total amount of money being wagered within the relevant market from which the reader aims to profit and the reader s own ability to respond to changes in that market. Any form of betting, even on a betting exchange, is speculative and you should never bet with money that you cannot afford to lose. Non-UK residents need to familiarise themselves with the applicable rules covering in-play wagers and gambling generally in their own country and act accordingly. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 4

5 The Rapid Fire Condensed Summary I have created this quick-fire introduction to satisfy the impatient and the more advanced exchange users along with those who remember this strategy from the past but need a quick reminder. I would still recommend that, after reading this section, you do move on and look at the detail that follows but, if you wanted to, you could jump straight in put the FCG strategy to the test. Just remember that, as with all things, the more you understand it, the better able you are to use it properly. In short, FCG is a betting exchange lay the draw strategy that you use ONLY in an in-play market. You pick a football match that you consider stands an excellent chance of not ending in a draw with the intention of laying the draw. You come to that conclusion through applying some sensible research of, at the very least: a) The league or tournament concerned (i.e. does it/has it tended to produce an above average number of drawn games). b) The teams involved and their history (especially recent history) and what s at stake with this game and, c) Any evidence of previous drawn games and frequency, especially against the opponents they are about to face. The fewer the draws, the better. You decide pre-kick off whether or not you wish to take out insurance against the score-line remaining at 0-0. Because 0-0 is the only result almost guaranteed to stop you making any profit. You can either insure against 0-0 by putting a fund on 0-0 in the full time correct score market that will allow you to get back some or all of your draw lay liability later or you can ignore insurance altogether and decide to always trade out of the game at between half-time and 70 minutes if it is still 0-0 (or at some earlier stage if you so wish or odds dictate that you must). You achieve this by backing the draw to produce an equal loss on any outcome or no loss on the no-draw outcome and a loss (but reduced loss) on the draw outcome. Having decided upon the highest odds that you are personally prepared to lay at, you then go to the exchange match odds market for that game (having assured yourself that it is a full in-play market - and that there is enough liquidity in the market) and you then lay the draw. You wait for a goal to be scored. Ideally the goal is scored by the match favourite and the draw price goes out and you are able to back it (the draw) to produce a profit on any subsequent match outcome, win result or draw result. If the outsider scores the draw price may not go out, it may even go down slightly depending on when the goal occurs. If this is the case the strategy should be to get as close to a no win/no lose situation as possible on any subsequent outcome by backing the draw still or by making sure that you do not lose if it is not a draw but lose (but a reduced amount) if it is a draw. The reason for favouring no draw other draw is simply because the draw result happens less frequently than the no draw result. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 5

6 You can choose, of course, if the outsider goal is early and you want to gamble, to wait to see if another goal follows shortly thereafter. This could be an early equaliser from the favourite with the expectation of another goal thereafter or it could be a second goal to the outsider which almost always allows you to then back the draw and take an any result, any outcome profit. If it is an equaliser you must then look closely at time remaining and decide again to wait or not for that third goal. If the third goal comes and is to the favourite you will almost certainly be able to come out with a profit on any outcome by backing the draw now. If the third goal is to the outsider and this does not lead to the odds on the draw going out, go back to where you were and what you needed to consider when the outsider scored the first goal and rinse and repeat the process. Always look to go green (make a profit on any and all results) on every outcome if possible and give priority to liability reduction before worrying about making profit. For full details now I advise you to read on. At the very least, you should avidly consume Part 1. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 6

7 Part 1 What is The Football Cash Generator? What do you need to use it? Well, you need the right approach and attitude to begin with. The Football Cash Generator is a betting strategy so it is a form of gambling. It has to be because, if it were not classed as gambling, you would not be able to take the money that you make from it free of tax. Is it risky? Risk is relative and only you, the user, can ultimately control risk. An acceptable risk for one is an unacceptable risk for another. The more time and effort you put into researching the teams involved before laying, the less exposed to risk you will be. It is quite possible to control all aspects of financial risk with this football match trading strategy and with the proper attention to staking, match selection and a full understanding of how to reduce potential losses you can, for certain, make a profit using this method over time. What you will not achieve is a profit from every match you trade. That is simply impossible. The losers in the end with any good football trading strategy are those who fail to master the strategy before setting off on their journey with their money in hand or those who quit on the strategy after just a few knocks and losing games. If you follow the strategy and do not fall victim to greed you can make money using it on the majority of matches you get involved in but you must set realistic expectations to succeed. Even though the larger percentage of trades you make will be winning trades the key is that, when you don t win or when you are not winning, you should, when you master this properly, be able to minimise what you lose in all but the most extreme of circumstances. The biggest single cause of losses is the wait and hope approach. With this approach you do not take evasive action to reduce liabilities when things go against you. Instead, you wait and hope for the game to go your way. This approach will guarantee losses overall. It is because of this combination of aggressive loss reduction on bad games and secure profit on good games that, unlike most things to do with the wagering and betting of money, Football Cash Generator has stood the test of time and variations on the theme of lay the draw are still being sold and used today. But you have your hands on the original. The first and the best of all the laying the draw strategies and the one from which most others have been copied. To describe the FCG in simple terms would be difficult but a good description would be that the FCG strategy consists of an in-play reduced risk, betting solution. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 7

8 A solution that commences by laying the least likely of the 3 possible outcomes in a football match (the draw) and, as the game progresses, it continues by backing that same, least likely, outcome at higher odds than the lay for such an amount and in such a way that any outcome thereafter is then a win for you. At the time of laying and then backing this outcome you are attempting to capture the shortest (when laying) and then the longest (when backing) odds you can without exposing yourself to unacceptable risk through waiting too long for the odds to get bigger. Ultimately the profit comes from the differential between the lay and the back odds that you are able to secure. Why football? The beautiful game is more popular now than it has ever been and the betting markets for football are huge and continue to grow year on year. By using the FCG strategy properly you will be able to make a profit from the most avidly watched sport in the UK and by adding the more recent Assured Soccer Profits System to your trading portfolio you will have two very strong alternate strategies to use that will enable you to make profit from two entirely different but effective football betting exchange markets. To benefit from and use the FCG strategy you will require access to the Internet and, thus, Internet access is the 1 st essential component of the Football Cash Generator. If you re not connected you need to get connected. This will pay for itself over and over again if you do and I recommend as good and as reliable a connection as possible. You will not be able to use the strategy without good access to the Internet To be a little more detailed now and to start the process off and commence the journey into exactly what the FCG strategy does, if you decide that, in a football game between Arsenal and Chelsea, Arsenal will win, you are also deciding by default that Chelsea are not going to win and, naturally and by extension, it is not going to be a draw either. In a traditional betting environment using a bookmaker match outcome bet, you would only be able to bet that Arsenal are going to win. You could not wager, for example, simply that Chelsea will not win and in so doing you could not then bet that the outcome would be either a draw or an Arsenal win without making two bets. This is where the betting exchange comes into play and the 2 nd essential component of the Football Cash Generator is put in place. With a betting exchange you can almost become the bookmaker and lay Chelsea, meaning, you can simply make a bet that Chelsea will not win. In so doing, you can effectively replace two alternative bets, namely, you are covering and backing an Arsenal win and you are covering and backing a draw because both of these outcomes will make your lay Chelsea bet a winner. Only Chelsea winning the game would make your lay Chelsea bet a loser. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 8

9 You will not be able to use the strategy without a betting exchange account In this book I am going to focus exclusively on just one betting exchange, Betfair.com because Betfair.com are the biggest of the bunch and are most likely the one you already have an account with. If you haven t got an account maybe you should get one because they will cover more games than the other exchanges. Sure they do sometimes have downtime and they can be annoying, especially when you have to talk to their customer service team but isn t that just the age we live in where everyone talks up customer service but under-delivers? This strategy will work with other betting exchanges but your match choice is likely to be significantly reduced if you do. The FCG strategy uses the 2 nd essential component by laying the least likely outcome in a football match at the outset, namely, the draw but it doesn t have to be at the outset if you want to go for lower draw odds. How About You Do It Later... What you can also do if you choose to is ignore the first 15 to 20 minutes of a game or even the first 30 minutes and then lay the draw at a (now) lower odds level. This does mean that you will miss out on some good games because there has already been a goal and it may well be that you miss out on some highly profitable games as a result, games where the favourite scores early. These early goal to the favourite games generally produce the best of all draw odds increases and it is draw odds increases that create our profit. It must also be remembered that if a game has gone 30 minutes (one third of its full length) without a goal it automatically follows that it has a higher statistical probability of ending 0-0 but do not be fooled, it isn t, as you might expect, 33% more likely to end 0-0. There are two primary scoring periods in a football match that stand out. Based on pure statistical information gathered over many years, there is clear evidence that the last 15 minutes of the first half and particularly and especially the last 15 minutes of the entire game produce more goals than any other game period. Please bear in mind with this type of statistical data that the difference between one period and another can be measured in 1 percents and 2 percents but there is a noticeable difference with the two game periods mentioned, especially with that last 15 minutes of the game slot. It is also possible (and I have used this a few times in the past albeit because I have happened to come in or switch on after a goal has already been scored) to just wait for a game that hits 1-1. On the face of it that sounds very risky but the principle is very sound if you apply this unbreakable rule. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 9

10 I would suggest that 1-1 needs to have occurred before half-time and you would lay the draw (then with generally much lower odds than you would have seen at the outset) straight away after 1-1 is reached. Any goal thereafter, but especially a goal to the match favourite, would likely lead to a good move outwards in the draw price. This type of game often pans out in the same way more frequently than you would perhaps expect. The outsider scores first and after a period of time during which the favourites settle down and get serious, the favourites respond and then, buoyed on by their uplifting response they start to take charge and very soon move to 2-1. In the football betting market this response by the favourite is seen almost instantly, in most cases, as the end. Favourite s in charge, game over, good night Vienna and all the rest of the clichés you ve heard before. The obvious downsides with this method are the very much reduced number of games you ll get on and, of course, the danger that the game is then locked at 1-1 for the duration. However, there is no more chance of a game staying at 1-1 having reached that point before half-time than a game staying at 0-0 that has reached that point at half-time. The fact is, in both cases, the vast majority of games drawn at the half-way stage go on to be a win for someone. Getting back to generalities, why, you might ask, is the draw the least likely outcome in a football match anyway? This doesn t always, at first, make sense. After all, if Manchester United were playing a lower division team, surely, the most likely result would be a Manchester United victory and, surely, the most likely result thereafter would be a draw and the lower division club winning would be the least likely result of all three possibilities. Whilst this logic cannot be faulted, it is totally irrelevant. The most likely result is that a team (whatever team) will win therefore the least likely result is that it will be a draw. Looked at in this way it is easier to think that there are only really 2 possible outcomes to a football match, a win or a draw. A football match really only has 2 possible outcomes, there is a winning team or there is a draw. This statement is very firmly backed up by statistics. Using English Premiership 2003/2004 season as an example, statistics demonstrated that less than 30% of all Premiership football games ended in a draw (28.4% to be precise). That means that just over 70% ended in a team winning. Remember, by saying that a game will not end in a draw, you are saying that a team (either of the 2 teams) will win the game. Let us leap forward 9 years to 10 seasons later and to 2011/2012 and look at those statistics again. We now see 24% of all games in the English Premier League ending in a draw and 76% ending with one of the two teams involved winning the game. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 10

11 I am not going to suggest that the draw as an outcome is becoming less common because a variation of around 5% in any long term statistic is not unusual but what I will absolutely suggest is that since I first developed FCG back in 2003, nothing much has really changed and so, if you know how to use this pattern to your advantage, then you know a way to make money consistently from football. It is also worth remembering that all drawn games that do not end in a 0-0 score-line have had to go through 1-0 or 0-1 to get back to a draw and often you can take your profit before the equaliser. You see, it isn t therefore a simple case of you will win 70% of games you trade and lose 30% of games you trade with this strategy. Done properly, you should win something on the vast majority of all games you trade. I have heard many people say over the years that you cannot ever beat the odds and the odds on a draw in a match are set to stop you taking advantage of this long-term trend and even coming in late will not help because the odds are lower to reflect the shorter time remaining. I say to those people, believe what you will. I will continue to believe that, with knowledge and experience and a will to act, you can most certainly defy the odds and generate profit and sometimes just waiting for the odds to change as a game develops is enough to swing things in your favour. The simplest example of this is, of course, the waiting a while and not laying the draw until the match is well under way but it isn t the only example. Just a 0.5 drop in the odds on a draw can lead to a significant change to what you can make or what you can lose. Another common strategy I ve often used is this: Why not lay a little at the start and then gradually lay some more as the odds reduce. Having decided that you want to lay for 10 overall, it is perfectly sound and reasonable to (for example) break that down over 5 lays at 5 different odds levels with each lay being carried out at a lower odds level than the one before. But just don t spread it over too long a period. I would say, 25 minutes maximum with lay 1 made pre-kick off and then another lay made every 5 minutes until you have your five lays in place and your total of 10 layed. This I know for a fact because I have been trading football for years using this very principle of the moving market and changing odds: Once you add an in-game event such as a goal into the equation the movement of odds can be dramatic and not necessarily always as expected. They can be sharper (bigger) movements than expected or flatter (smaller). It s harder to do now than it used to be because so many auto-bot betting gadgets get used on the exchanges, but there was always an advantage in having a wager ready to go once the market came out of suspension. I have known situations after a goal when the market suspension comes off where I have asked for and got odds of 8 to back the draw only to see those odds settle back to down to 5 or even 4.5 a few seconds later. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 11

12 Think of the impact on your profit of 8 versus 4.5, when you have layed the draw at 3.5 or even 4 to begin with. Let me explain in a little more detail. Back in the good old days (let me just put my granddad hat and cardigan on) you could often quickly ask for a bet to be matched at much higher odds than you really ought ever to get and because you were quick off the mark and got that bet request into the system very quickly it would sometimes, quite frequently in fact, get matched as trigger happy punters could not wait to get a position back on in the game. Now with auto-bots in the mix that is much harder because they are so much quicker than us folk... Do not be a-feared of all this then and now talk though. There are many people today making money from the FCG method and because of the very many copy cat systems that have emerged over the last ten years, many more people than ever before are, in fact, making money from some form of lay the draw method. And why is that I hear you ask? Well because it still works, simple and always remember that whilst something may not be new to you, it is new to many others. Remember also that you have joined an elite group; you have your hands on the original or, as I stated right at the beginning, the Grandfather of lay the draw systems. Research I Know It s Boring But... Now you can already assume from what has already been written here that an awareness of statistics is an essential ingredient in any football recipe and there are many sites devoted exclusively and in part to the accumulation of such statistics. It is often said that knowledge is power and by taking the time to study historical statistics in any given league, you massively increase your chances of winning by identifying anomalies and trends. It is also worth paying close attention to recent form. I will return to statistics in a short while but let us first deal with form. A site I like to use to be certain of knowing as much as possible about form is soccerway.com. I have used this site now for some considerable time and it is a site that, once you are familiar with its navigation, is packed full of useful data on teams, leagues and tournaments from all over the world. I recommend for the study of football form data. I am interested in this Japanese league game in the Betfair in-play match odds market today or, at least, I might be interested in it once I know a little more about the teams. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 12

13 On the face of it this could be an FCG game, the home team is favourite, the draw price is low but not so low as you think a draw is inevitable and all I need now is to get more information about the teams. As I write, the game has just literally kicked off seconds ago so I have missed the start and now have no intention of rushing so that I can get on but it will serve a useful purpose nonetheless for education purposes I feel. The first thing I want to know? Is there enough interest or action in this game. I will expand upon this later but with 82,000 plus matched in this market the answer is absolutely yes. I need to also know how the teams stack up against each other and the image below shows us some very important information. First off it shows us that the league is established, they have already played some 24 games and therefore there is some reliability about any stats we might see. This is critical. You should avoid any league, even our own Premiership, until they are a good 10 games or more into season. The image also shows us that the home favourites are higher in the league than their opposition. This is also re-assuring when we are looking to compare their relevant strengths. We want to see reasons for favouritism. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 13

14 There is, however, one obviously worrying instant piece of information that leaps out at you from the image. Over the last 5 league games Iwata have drawn 3 and they have drawn 10 out of their total 24 games. On the upside, the home favourites have a much better draw record. What I always ask then is what have they done against each other? Clearly this is very revealing and we can see (from the image below) that there have been no draws between them over their last 7 meetings. Interestingly, even though the home side are clear favourites in the market, it is most definitely Iwata that have tended to have the upper hand with 5 from 7 wins against Kashiwa. This would not put me off but it would make me question how strong the favourites really are. I predict a riot! Well, I predict an away win anyway. You know what; I m almost tempted to lay the favourites (if only the favourites were odds on). In the end though, as good as the head to head looks for the game. I just do not like the draw record for Iwata over all and also, you have to think that there is a huge chance of Iwata, the outsiders, scoring first and, as you will learn, that can mean work for us to reduce potential loss and to make profit. Why take on a game that could be hard work when you do not ever have to bet. Always remember, you can choose not to bet for any reason. If in doubt, leave it out. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 14

15 I have to go forward to 16:30 now to find another possible game that appeals to me subject to research. This one has a bigger draw price by which I mean, of course, bigger draw odds and so it would put a few people off but, generally speaking, a higher draw price equals less draw probability. Not always the way it pans out, but odds must always be part of and the start of your predictor research on how you think the game is going to go. Let s go and take a look at these guys on Soccerway.com: This is better but not perfect because of those high odds. OK let s try to get this process firmly into your head so that you don t really have to think about it. We want to see action in the market. This one with several hours to go has already hit just under 12,000 so I am pretty sure this will show more than enough liquidity. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 15

16 We want to see that the league is established and this is the Finnish Premier league and it is 25 plus games in so, yes, it is established. We want to see obvious strength in the favourites. I don t much like a game where it is clear that the favourite is only the favourite because they are playing at home but, having said that, a home favourite is generally stronger than an away favourite in terms of the strength of favouritism but I want a bit more than just home advantage. Our home and, clearly, strong favourites are at the top of the league as well so this is good but you will see that they have fairly recently drawn two games, that s not so good but the last 3 games have been wins. That is good and, digging deeper, I see that the draws were both away games so that is even better. Overall they have drawn only 6 from 25; more than happy with that. The opponents have drawn their last game according to this and another game 5 games back. So, combined, we have 4 out of the last 10 league games drawn (or 40%). In an ideal world I don t like to see a bigger than 30% combined occurrence of draws in the last 10 games but this isn t hard and fast. When I look more closely at Mariehamn s recent record, I can see a cup game in their last 5 total games which was not a draw (not shown obviously in the last 5 game view above as this shows league games only). So I can argue that in their last 5 total games, they have one draw not two so that is a combined 30% now. So now let s take a look at the favourite s recent games: As you can see, two games were drawn but away from home and the last three were all wins. Now, I don t leave it here, I still like to dig a little deeper to be sure I want to be on the game. After all, with this one, the draw price is high and we want to minimise risk as much as possible. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 16

17 Their most recent history against each other certainly does not suggest that a draw is very likely although there was a 0-0 two games back with HJK at home. In fact this game should be a goal-fest. They have had only 6 draws a piece in 25 and 26 league games, that is a better (lower) than a 25% draw record and that statistic combined with their overall record against each other makes this a good looking game so far, so based on what I have seen now, I need to move on and make a decision about this game once I have checked one last area of form that I always look at. What I like to see before a final decision is when, generally, are the goals scored? Do you remember what I said earlier about the last 15 minutes of the first half and, especially, the last 15 minutes of the entire game producing more goals than any other game periods? Well look at the image above and what do you see? The goal scoring patterns of these two are almost identical and both wake up and start playing properly in the last 15 minutes of the game. Now this tells me two things. It tells me that this game could easily become a ring jingler (I will let you work out what that means) because of the high odds and I might be forced to take evasive action to reverse my initial draw lay when the game is still 0-0 and with evidence of that possibility staring me in the face and draw odds of nearly 6 to lay I do not want to take that chance. And the second thing this tells me is that, although they have high scoring games against each other, this might well be a case of most goals coming late in the game and therefore it could be a great game pick for my Assured Soccer Profits football trading system because of the tendency towards those late goals. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 17

18 Now that was, it is true, an unashamedly direct in your face promotion for that system but the two systems do complement each other for the very reason just demonstrated. Often a game that will not work for FCG is good for ASP and vice versa. So, we still do not have a game today that passes inspection on research. Let s keep searching and to keep things tidy, let s stick with Finland because when I think of Finland, I think of goals. In fact I have a long standing joke with an old friend about Finnish and Norwegian football. We both believe that they do not have goal keepers in their teams and thus their games are always good for goals because, after all, who wants to stand around for most of the game in those temperatures! Back to work and let us research another game: I prefer the draw price here. In fact, this is what I would call a perfect draw price, if such a thing could exist. Anything below 3.3 really tells me that a draw is a very high probability. Between 3.3 and 4.3 you should be looking at a reasonably average game that could go any way in reality. At this time (but it is way ahead of kick off), we do not yet have sufficient action or liquidity but that s a matter for later. Generally 4.3 plus draw price games are not high draw probabilities and above 5 you are normally in the area of very strong odds-on favourites and very low draw probabilities. This game has a draw price I would expect to be higher (5+) and so it is an almost perfect draw price on a very low draw probability game. At this level the draw price would not make you break into a sweat. As we research this one more you will see good reasons for the strength of the odds on Honka and, unlike with the HJK game, I would not be required to lay the draw at pretty much odds of 6 which is always nice to see. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 18

19 RoPS with 8 draws from 26 is a bit of a stinker though especially when you see 3 draws in the last 5 games so, in the interests of being overly pernickety I would suggest that this one fact would be enough for you to decide that you did not want to get involved with this game but, it could be traded with an insurance bet. Honkas' 5 draws from 26 compensates very largely and they are our home favourites but I am still personally leaning towards trading with 0-0 covered (insurance). When we see them against each other the picture gets better again as we see no draws in their last 7 meetings. More importantly, every single game in those 7 has been won by Honka and in the 4 home games shown Honka have only once beaten them by less than two goals. Football can throw up exactly what you don t want and anything can happen but if we start our journey off with good information we are more likely to select good games. The final check now for me until we check action (liquidity) later, having satisfied myself so far that this would be a game I would operate FCG on, albeit with insurance is, of course, the when do the goals come section or overview. Let us take a look at scoring patterns: It has to be said that it generally doesn t look any better than this. Goals come early, frequently, from both sides. There is quite an even distribution of goals that fall between the first and last 15 minutes and they have both evidenced strong finishes, especially our home favourites. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 19

20 So that picture, built over 26 games each, is very encouraging and this game has passed all of my quality tests so far except one (liquidity/action), and I only have the one minor fear that, because RoPS have been drawing consistently of late, they may just go after a draw from the start. I am sure that I am probably wrong and perhaps being overly cautious about this but I would rather you became overly cautious in preference to not being cautious enough, remember you never have to bet. I just now have to see matched bets of 10,000 or more in the Betfair market and as we are already at 9,500 with some hours yet before kick-off I don t think there will be a problem in that respect. The ideal game is one where there is a reasonably early first half goal to the match favourites. The perfect goal time is actually between 25 and 35 minutes but it doesn t matter as much as who scores matters. We want to see a draw price that moves out by 60% or more, 70% or more if you use insurance (more later on that). A 100% draw price increase with a very strong favourite scoring first is not that uncommon either. If you layed at odds of 4, you want a draw price, after a goal, that has moved out to 7 or more. You will not always get this and you certainly will not get it if the outsider scores first, so be prepared for that. Now you can t ever read too much into this data and football, it must be said, probably more than any other sport that I bet on, does have a habit of throwing up the thing you want the least but a bit of research can help you tremendously as, I hope, this section has demonstrated. Having looked at much evidence, I personally would have no hesitation in having a go at this game with FCG but, as I said, I would want to just set up belt and bracers with 0-0 covered to be extra safe. I don t fear 1-1 or any other score draw here, I think if Honka score first the market draw price will fly out. If RoPS score first, well just check their head to head results again. My only fear really is that RoPS might just throttle the game and go all out to defend from the start and that makes covering 0-0, in my mind, sensible. Now let s get back to statistics. I am going to leave today s games alone now and if you re curious, you can always go back and check the results on soccerway.com when you re reading this. I was probably entirely wrong with my assessments on at least some of these games but generally I get a good few spot on. Now I want to get back to general statistics. I could list several sites that provide relevant statistics that will help you but the one below has been going for years and has always served me well. I really recommend a visit to it is packed with worldwide football statistics. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 20

21 Statistics can be analysed to death of course and, for example, using the same two Premiership seasons as I did a little earlier, I can tell you that home teams win more games than away teams. 44% on average of all Premiership games end in a win for the home team (another statistic that rarely changes or only ever changes in small movements), that s nearly half of the games! 28% (on average) end in a win for the away team. Knowing these statistics will help you to identify value in match odds and will help you to assess games but you don t need to go study them too deeply and you certainly do not need be a slave to them. It could be considered an advantage to know, for example, that, in the 2012/2013 season, Everton and Stoke drew 15 of their 38 games whereas Manchester United only drew 5 of theirs. This makes last years Champions a pretty good bet to not be involved in drawn matches and, in contrast, the other two, you might think, very much more likely to be involved in drawn matches. As I write this, with 3 games played good old Everton are 3 draws from the 3. Stoke however have yet to draw but it is early days and too early to read anything into that. Of course, Manchester United no longer have the great Sir Alex Ferguson to guide them and so could this change the results this season? David Moyes of course was the Everton manager last season and is now the Manchester United manager. More draws in Manchester now you think? Who knows; my point is that statistics can help but they will not, alone, serve your needs because the team with the best (least number) draw record last season might just end up with the worst (biggest number) draw record this season. Another very important general statistic is that, just under, 11% of all Premiership games in 2003/2004 ended in 0-0 and in 2012/2013 that figure was just over 9%. In every season as far as you want to check back somewhere between 7% and 12% of all games will end 0-0. That 11% 2003/2004 figure though has proven with 10 years of hindsight, to be very much on the higher side of that equation. As you can see, 11% happened just once in the last 5 seasons and the average over those 5 years is 8.47%. You would probably find that the overall average would sit between 8% and 9% over as many years as you wanted to check back. Here are those figures for the last 5 seasons: 2012/2013 >> 9.21%, 2011/2012 >> 7.11%, 2010/2011 >> 6.58%, 2009/2010 >> 8.42%, 2008/2009 >> 11.05% 0-0 is by far the most important of all drawn results anywhere in any league because it is the one outcome that will not allow you to create a profit by backing the draw in a game (well unless the under-dogs were to suffer two red cards perhaps) and so the importance of being prepared to act at some point on a 0-0 score-line, either prior to with insurance or during the match is critical. Now, here s a thing that is impossible to prove or demonstrate in any tangible way but often you can massively reduce the chances of being on a 0-0 game by simply thinking about what is at stake for the teams concerned. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 21

22 Especially if one side cannot gain any advantage or progression from winning (team B is already out of the tournament whatever the result for example). This becomes very useful information towards a seasons end or in the later stages of a league based (European Champions League style) cup competition or tournament. If, to continue that example, team A needs only draw to qualify for something or gain some advantage (such as a home replay) they are more likely to build their game around a defensive strategy and make their opponents work very hard to find the goal. Be extra cautious always of games between big clubs and minnows. I remember all too well an FA Cup game involving Manchester United and Oldham that I traded a few years back using FCG. I did not have insurance on 0-0 and the game ended 0-0 and while I reduced my liability quite significantly I still took a big hit. From memory though I layed the draw at between 7 and 8. It was completely crazy to do that game without insurance but the professor does not always do what he teaches any more than the Doctor always looking after his own health. 1-1 (the most frequent drawn result of all most of the time) will allow you to act to secure a profit at some point in most instances. Most, not all, because when an under-dog scores first often the draw price will hold steady or even go down as the market expects the stronger favourite to equalise in fairly short order. I also said that 1-1 was the most common drawn result most of the time because generally 1-1 will happen more often than 0-0 but not always. In the 2008/2009 English Premier League season 1-1 did not happen more often than 0-0. It happened in exactly 8.95% of all games versus 0-0 s 11.05% of games but this is rare. The other draw score-lines are generally too infrequent to even merit a real mention with 2-2 and 3-3 happening less than 5% of the time and these outcomes are pretty rare in any league in any part of the world as an overall percentage of all results. Any even bigger draw score-line, such as 4-4 is as rare as rocking horse droppings. However it must be said as I conclude this little summary of draw statistics that some leagues around the world are more equal than others. For example, the Greeks have a tendency toward more 0-0 draws than we do. The clear message here is check the averages and be aware of the frequency of 0-0 and draws generally. The 3 rd essential component of the Football Cash Generator is, that the FCG can only be operated with an in-play betting market and exchanges will only give us this generally if they can get a live feed from the match either by TV or otherwise, (NB: don t mistake in-play and un-managed in-play meaning they never suspend the market when something happens but you can still bet through the game). John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 22

23 If the game is televised you can of course watch it yourself whilst trading and some would say this is a big advantage because you can get a feel for who is in charge. Personally, over time, I have come to believe that watching the game is not an advantage for me and I would rather just use live score on line sites. If you want to stick to televised games only, this is certainly not a problem with all the channels out there that televise football this still gives us a huge number of games to run the strategy on. As long as you understand that you do not have to watch the game, you do not even need access to the TV channel that is showing the game but it adds an edge to your experience if you do watch, that, at least, I cannot argue against. I tend to recommend access to live football scores over the Internet. My own experience of this is that there can sometimes be a huge delay factor with this type of service and you need to be aware of this but often the betting exchange will react to a goal a good two, or even more, minutes before the live score web site will. A good place for in-play monitoring these days is bet365.com. They have interactive live systems that show you who is attacking, when there s a corner and so on. Betfair have their own service but because I hated using it when it first started I have never gone back to it since. I tend to use the online service below. An example of this type of service that I do find useful to use is To quickly summarise our progress so far: The essential components of the Football Cash Generator are Internet access, a betting exchange in-play betting market and a good research site for statistical and form analysis. There are other components but those are the essential three. The essential 3 components are: The Internet, The Betting Exchange In-Play market to bet in and a good research and statistics site. To touch upon another important point briefly; you will need sufficient funds to cover the total liability on any wagers that you propose to make. As a rule of thumb, I would recommend a fund of 300 to 500 to really get you going but you can start to operate the FCG strategy with as little as 200 or even 100 (although I would not recommend less than 100). The larger the size of your fund, the greater the range of betting options you have available and the better equipped you are to avoid any losses. As a rule of thumb your total match liability at its highest point should not ever exceed 10% of your total betting bank in my opinion although I do know that some people exceed this figure quite frequently and foolishly in my opinion. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 23

24 As you will see later, the funds available to dictate the size of the profits that you can ultimately make and the number of games you can trade at one time. Having mentioned the number of games you can trade at one time I would very much stress that, until you are totally comfortable, you should probably stick to one game at a time so that you can watch the movement of odds closely as the game proceeds. Try to build a fund slowly from profit, do not be tempted to do a few games and then throw larger funds into your account because you think you ve got it pegged. I get people telling me almost every day that they know about laying the draw and how it s all old hat and yet, here s a strange thing, they don t make money at it, so I know they are doing it wrong and don t understand it at all. They would of course tell you in response to the comment that I have just made that it doesn t work. If you allow yourself to think that then you will always be right. Nothing works if you do not believe it will work. Logic will, eventually, persuade you that of course it works when done correctly but only when done correctly. It took me a few months in the very beginning to build a nice fund in my Betfair.com account so that I could start to make around 200 per day and sometimes even more but in those days it was a little easier to make excellent returns from this method because people were not aware of how to do this until I introduced it and the draw odds back then used to move far more dramatically after a goal than they do now. I would draw off the excess profit from time to time to provide fun funds when I needed them. I have to say that not having any income tax liability on this money was also a wonderful advantage. FCG more than any other form of betting I ever did produced the best profits I ever experienced from Betfair and even now I go back to it when I have time and want to have some simple fun. The biggest single reason for a larger fund is to have multiple wagers running at the same time and this can be advantageous if you spot odds days or several hours before a game is due to be played that represent exceptional value. This can still often happen especially in big tournaments and it pays to keep looking ahead for these. The bigger your betting exchange cash pot the more you can wager in advance of a game and the more games you can do. I should stress again, you don t need huge funds in your Betfair.com account to generate profit. Just making 20 to 50 per week would suit many if not most. To illustrate that point a little further, if you look at a typical Saturday during the main European league seasons you will see that Betfair.com are probably offering in-play betting markets for dozens of matches, in fact, often in excess of a hundred games. And football is now an ever-green betting market. There are in-play games on almost every single day of the year from somewhere around the world and this strategy can be used on most of them (although I would recommend some filtering of course, especially the test of establishment to be sure the data has meaning). John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 24

25 The lay wager can be a little confusing until you are used to it and you need to understand that the potential liability on a lay wager needs to be available in your funds for you to make that wager. If you go to Profit Magnets.com you can read my quick guide to laying providing you are a member and membership is totally free to acquire. To access that guide simply click below: QUICK GUIDE TO LAYING. You can also view a video there on how to make sub 2 bets on Betfair.com. This can be very handy when you are making trades on small funds. Just click again for that: VIDEO. With a traditional bet you would stake a sum of money and that stake is all that you could potentially lose. With a lay wager you have agreed to pay (if you lose) the value of the bet against you at the odds agreed. So a lay bet at 3/1 (shown as odds of 4 in decimal terms) means you get to pay out the 3 if you lose and win only the 1 if you win. In monetary terms if this wager were for 2, which just happens to be the stated Betfair.com minimum bet, you would pay out 6 if you lost and win 2 if you won. There is a commission paid to Betfair.com and the other exchanges you might use that is normally paid out from profits made. Your 2 is then reduced to 1.90 for example. But by laying as opposed to backing an outcome you get to achieve what I discussed earlier on with the Arsenal v Chelsea scenario, you get to bet that Chelsea simply will not win by laying Chelsea and so you win providing Chelsea lose or draw. Now of course our strategy here involves laying the draw but the principle is the same. When you lay the draw you win if either of the two teams playing wins the match and you only lose if the match is a draw in the end and you have taken no further action during the game to secure your position IF it is a draw at the end. This last (bold) point is critically important. Do always remember that even though some 28% to 30% of games do end in a draw, many of those are score draws and go through a period where one of the teams is ahead and winning. This is another reason that keeping a fairly large fund available, if at all possible, to ensure that you can cover multiple lay wagers at one time is important once you ve mastered the strategy. If the lay wager still confuses you do take the time to look at the guide below on Profit Magnets. The most important statement in this entire book is the one that now follows: You need to be disciplined with the FCG and not be tempted into missing bits of the strategy out to increase your profits. The further away from the strategy you move, the more into pure gambling you go. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 25

26 If you win just 2 on a 10 total bet you might not think that this is very exciting however, in percentage terms, this is a 20% return on your investment and it is the same as winning 20 on a 100 bet or 200 on a 1000 bet. As you grow more confident with the strategy you will become inclined to wager in larger amounts and you will realise that you are taking no more risk than you were with the smaller amounts it is just that the figure grew in size. I have wagered in excess of 2000 on a single game to gain returns of 200 to 300, but I will still take a smaller profit than that if the game dictates it. If I made no more than 10 of profit on that same wager I would still consider it a handsome victory. You must have a disciplined approach to the strategy and you must never gamble with more than you can afford to lose. If you get a bad result on a game, put it right behind you and follow the strategy religiously again from the very next game you choose to trade. I cannot stress this enough: the Football Cash Generator is not a one game strategy. It is designed to produce a healthy profit overall for anyone that follows it properly! You must not treat the Football Cash Generator as a one game strategy. It is designed to produce a profit overall The bigger wagers can come when you ve built up your profit pot and it pays to start off small and sensibly until you have the skill and the knowledge to step up the level of your wagers safely. In fact, my recommendation for the first few times you put the strategy into practise would be to not actually make any real wagers at all but to simply paper trade. What you should do is imagine that you were making wagers and just work out what you would have won. Have some theoretical wagers where, in your mind, your primary wager is 10 on each game. When you have studied the outcome on, say, a dozen or so games and realised that you would have made money with little real risk, this will, again, boost your confidence without exposing your wallet. If you need to go on longer without actually using money then do so. Run it on paper for as long as you need to. When doing this you must make sure that you follow the game and can identify exactly what action you would have taken at the appropriate time according to the strategy rules. Don t switch off just because you aren t using money. Now let us move on to building the detailed strategy itself. Let us move on to Part 2. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 26

27 Part 2 The Football Cash Generator Step 1 Live game - Do We Have in-play? The first step assumes that you have a Betfair.com (I will refer to them now) or similar account set up. If you haven t then you should get one so that you can go to that account and look at the football markets so that this all makes sense. Step 1 of the FCG strategy is to go into the Betfair.com home page first thing in the morning to look for the in-play football matches that they will be covering today. This is very much an in-play match market strategy. Betfair.com sometimes change their site style, look and feel and have once again, very recently changed their web site and have a new style site that I do not use (I prefer the older version, the version they simply call old site ). Ironically, in version 2 of FCG back in 2004 I said very much the same thing then as they changed from their original and first site format to a new one. You will see the style difference reflected in the new images I have added here for FCG version 4 when compared to the old images from version 2. The screen shots below show the main in-play match markets screen for September 12 th 2013 just from the 13:00 slot. There are two images to fit them all in. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 27

28 This first image covers just the period up to a game on at 18:25 and the second shows the rest thereafter and this is just a Thursday. That is 30 games (which excludes some 10 plus additional games listed in-play earlier today) from which to select from. This is purely to demonstrate volume of games. When you read this and if you are visiting Betfair.com for the very first time I am not entirely sure what site style you will get up on your browser when you type in Betfair.com so, if your screen doesn t look like the one above don t worry, just navigate to the football section and look for the in-play coupon for the day and one way or another you will eventually get to something like that above. It doesn t matter when you read this either. There are football matches on all year around and not, as a lot of people assume, just from the middle of August to the end of April only. Every year brings additional international games and tournaments of course and this year will see many World Cup qualifying games and next year the World Cup itself. In the second revision of FCG, in 2004, we had the Euro 2004 championships in addition to the normal feast of football and I built the FCG manual version 2 largely around that tournament as it superbly demonstrated that even out of season, there was much football to be found and traded. This is still very much the case today and, in fact, there is more football on Betfair than ever. Back in 2004 you would not have had an in-play market as busy as the one captured in the images above except perhaps on a main season Saturday. I have kept the odd screen shot and image and some of the content generally from that version 2 revision and that 2004 tournament in this manual so that you get as big a picture of FCG in action as possible. The look and feel of Betfair may have changed since then but the FCG process has not changed at all so the images I ve kept are still just as relevant today. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 28

29 If anything critical has changed, it has been reflected in this update. During years where there are no additional major tournaments (very rare these days when you take international fixtures into account) you might just get a few odd weeks when the football availability slows a little but do remember that it will always be in the best interest of betting exchanges to find us as much football to bet on as they can! You must always remember that because of filtering, particularly the filter that suggests you only trade games in a league that has been established, you may restrict the games available to you in the interests of profitability and risk reduction. Moving right along, let us take a trip back in time to look at the 23 rd June There were 2 live football matches on the box that day and both were listed in the Betfair inplay section. In fact, they may well have been the only two games listed in-play that day and both matches were from Euro Once you know that there are live games and you have in-play betting, you need to go and find a game that you like (I liked both of them) and move on to the match odds section. Once you are in the match odds section (simply click on the match you are interested in viewing listed on the in play section) you are ready to move to step 2. Step 2 Does It Have Action? - Can I find A Game I like? Holland v Latvia match odds This one is the match odds page for Holland v Latvia in Euro John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 29

30 There are still just over 5 hours to go before kick-off at the time of the capture and yet the market is already buzzing with activity. Some 600,000 plus had already been bet on this game. The game absolutely passed the quality test in that it certainly had action. Compare that match odds market with an in-play game for the evening of 12 th September 2013 and you will see that Betfair has changed some visually but the critical information is pretty much the same. From this image you can see that nearly 14,000 has already been matched (wagered and covered) on this game from Sweden that kicks off at 18:00 this evening. 14,000 some 5 hours ahead on a Swedish league game pretty much tells you how popular football betting on the exchange has become and just to skip ahead again, because time travel with a book is simplicity in itself, it hit 85,000 matched by the time the game was ready to kick-off. Experience over many years has taught me that you need only be assured of around 2,000 or more matched for a game now to be a trading possibility. In fact I set this still as the liquidity minimum for the Assured Soccer Profits system. I would recommend though, that you don t even look at a game with less than 10,000 matched for FCG. Why? As you will see in time, you need to be certain that there is money washing around in the market for when you want to trade later in the game and move your position. One essential quality test: Is there enough money in the market? Time to introduce the first of our Golden Rules: RULE 1 There must be a minimum of 10,000 in matched wagers before a game kicks off for the strategy to be used safely. The more money matched, the safer the game is from a trading perspective. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 30

31 From the 2004 manual: Holland v Latvia match odds Looking at the match odds on this Holland v Latvia game I can see that Holland are the odds-on favourites and the draw price is quite high. This tells me that the market does not expect a draw in this game. I am not, by any means, exclusively driven by or governed by what the match odds tell me but if I saw something strange or unusual in the match odds I might apply a little more caution than normal. If, for example, I saw that Holland had a very low draw price I would have to wonder why? I would expect Holland to be red-hot favourites in this game so the odds are not a bit surprising. In the main, betting exchange odds act in exactly the same way as traditional bookmaker odds act. The most likely outcome gets the shortest odds and the most unlikely outcome gets the longest odds. The only minor surprise here for me is that the draw odds aren t even higher than they are. Generally speaking, with such an odds-on favourite in the match odds market (1.39/1.4), the draw price would normally be out at around 6 to 6.5 to back and a little higher to lay. This tells me that the draw odds here are really good value however, having said that, I must now throw in a little caution. A lay bet is, to the uninitiated, a little scary and I think that it is important, especially in the early days of using the Football Cash Generator strategy, to consider having a staking plan when it comes to making lay wagers that stops you creating too large a liability to begin with because you are going to be making lay wagers all the time using this strategy. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 31

32 After game note: Holland beat Latvia 3-0 so demonstrating that they were worthy of the short odds on status. This was a hugely profitable game with massive draw odds increase after just the 1 st goal. Back to 2013 This Swedish game would not be a lay the draw game for all or even many although it has good funds matched in the main match odds market and would qualify on golden rule 1. The reason you might not attempt to lay the draw in this game is because the odds to lay the draw are very big. The image above is moments after kick off. You can see that the draw price to lay was 7 but ten minutes in and you could lay at 6.3. Without experience and confidence you would be unlikely to ever lay at odds of 7. In fact, you d have to be quite brave to lay at anything over 5 in the very early days. Laying at odds of 7 means that you would pay out 6 times your stake if you were wrong and the game was a draw in the end and you did not carry out any trades inplay unlikely of course. That is 6 lost for every potential 1 won. So why would you ever do it? Why would you ever lay the draw at high odds? Well, a goal from Sundsvall, especially an early goal, would see those odds to back the draw go out quite dramatically after the goal and this is the key to the strategy... And almost as I wrote that last sentence the cheer came up on Flashscore.com and Sundsvall had scored. As soon as the market reset, I captured this next image: The goal came at 17 minutes and these draw odds will drift out even more after a few more minutes of settling. But even now, after laying at 7 could you create a profit from backing at 11? You bet you could. Curiously, this game ended 1-1 so it was one of your 28% to 30% draw results and yet you could easily have made a profit on the game. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 32

33 It is for you to decide upon what the staking plan and the ratios should be on a game where you lay the draw according to the size of your wallet but, as an example, you might want to apply something like the following using ten pound units: Odds to lay Wager to lay 3 to to 4 15 Over 4 10 To calculate your risk (potential loss on wager) from the odds simply reduce the odds listed by 1 and multiply the stake accordingly by the remainder. For example: A 10 stake at 3.5 could lead to a loss of x 10 = 25 if you layed at those odds and took no further action in game. A 10 stake at odds of 4 would be 4-1 x 10 = 30 as a potential loss and so on. The decision has to be yours as to what you feel comfortable with but you should never allow yourself to feel under pressure with this strategy and you should only, accordingly, lay at odds that create a liability you can cope with IF for whatever reason, you could do nothing after making the lay. Imagine you lay the draw and then Betfair.com crashes and you cannot get back into the match market to change anything or make any further trades and it ends as a draw. Could you cope with the loss on the wager you made? I know how easy it is to panic about the size of a potential liability on a lay wager as I have been in some pretty nail-biting situations especially during the period when I was developing this strategy but how I would love those days again... It would be easy to simply say stay away from any game that has a lay draw price of over 4 but if I took that view I would be ignoring games that involved teams who are more likely than most to win their games and, arguably, are accordingly a much safer bet than a team that generates a really low lay draw price. Therefore these stronger teams are potentially worth a lot of money to us and the lower draw odds will lead to more drawn games being traded of course. Going back to Sundsvall again, let me set the bet out for you using the staking ratios above. Lay the draw pre-kick off at odds of 7. For ease here, let us forget insurance which I still haven t fully explained in detail. A very strong, odds-on favourite wouldn t necessarily lead me to personally bother with 0-0 insurance unless some of the pre-match research threw up a cautionary aspect that I could not ignore. Laying at odds of 7 has a cost of 60 as a loss if the game ended in a draw and I did nothing else in game. So I would win 10 on the game not ending in a draw (and yes there is a little commission to take into account) and lose potentially 60 if it did. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 33

34 17 minutes after kick off and I have odds of 11 available to back the draw so if I were to back the draw for 6, I would now have no win/no lose on the game ending in a draw and a 4 win on any other result. If I wished to I could alternately back the draw for 6.35 and leave a profit of 3.50 on the game ending in a draw and 3.65 on the game not ending in a draw. It is nevertheless sensible to have a degree of caution with the higher lay draw odds to compensate for the higher and potentially more damaging liability were a game to go pear-shaped and, for whatever reason, no in-play action was taken to reduce that starting liability. This is where the 0-0 insurance comes in of course. You would always take some action in game wherever you could. So, here s rule 2: RULE 2 Have a staking plan on your lay wagers in the early days of using the strategy so that you are not exposed to too much risk and you do not feel under pressure. You may decide that you do not need to adjust your staking level with higher lay odds and that is fine if you want to make that decision. Fortunately, the relative movement of odds, in other words, the way in which odds move after an event, especially a goal event, has taken place in a football match is much the same whatever the level of the odds were at the outset. As an example a game that had draw odds of 3.5 before kick off would most likely respond in the same way as a game that had draw odds of 6 after an event in that game occurred. After the event they would probably both move out by the same percentage. 3.5 might go to 5 where 6 might go to 8.6. In monetary terms they are both worth much the same. We saw with Sundsvall that 7 went to 11 so I am possibly being a little conservative. The event we re mostly interested in and therefore the games we really want are games that are going to produce a goal and the more we can find games where the favourite takes charge and scores first, the better off we will be. A red card can have an impact as well. I have seen games where the draw price significantly moved out because of a red card being given to the team considered to be the underdogs. Let us now take a detailed look at insurance. Step 3 Insurance Do You Need It? Do You Want It The third step, and one that is very much a voluntary but still advisable part of the strategy and is there primarily for the ultra cautious is what I ve always called insurance. If you take this step you will slightly reduce your overall profit potential but to cover yourself against the likelihood of a 0-0 result, it is something you can do if you are nervous of 0-0. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 34

35 RULE 3 Until you are totally familiar with the system you might want to back 0-0 to return the total of your lay the draw liability! I have to stress that my preferred strategy with this, if I were using insurance, would be to go for those games with the higher draw odds and the seriously odds-on favourites 1.4 to 1.8, so that covering 0-0 in can be achieved relatively cheaply. 0-0 in the Sundsvall game before kick-off was available to back at odds of 23. This is not uncommon in this type of short odds-on favourite game. With Honka v RoPS also covered earlier, 0-0 was available to back at 18. For starters, by introducing 0-0 insurance I would have to up the stakes some on laying the draw OR just accept that I can only make limited profit now on a game that does not end in a draw. I prefer the upping the stakes route. You must now always also remember the additional risk that you have now created on a game that ends in a 1-1 or 2-2 score-line. You can always act some to avoid disaster but be aware of them from the start and it s easier to plan your escape from danger. I would probably lay for 15 instead of 10 if 10 were my normal stake and then I would back 0-0 for around 4 in the correct score market. This always also an in-play market if the match market is in-play. This would establish a 0-0 fund of 88 in the correct score market at odds of 23 to help alleviate my liability of (now) 90 on the game ending in a 0-0 draw (lay odds on the draw of 7). It would also create a loss in the correct score market of 4 on any score at the end of the game other than 0-0 (again assuming we never did anything in-play). If a goal is scored, as was the case in this Swedish game, by the favourite, I now have to also get my 4 additional stake back from the 0-0 bet but I have 15 now in my match odds market sitting on Sundsvall to win or the other mob to win. Now, having gone for insurance on this game I would aim to only come out even in the event of a draw and to retain as much profit as possible on the game not ending in a draw. So, to achieve this I must take my total liability ( 90 on draw and 4 on 0-0 = 94) divide this into the odds (so divided by 10 remembering to remove the stake of 1 from the odds of 11) and this tells me I need to back the draw for 9.40 after a goal to take the draw result to 0. I still then make 5.60 on the game ending as no draw. Picture the match odds market now and I have a positive figure of 5.60 sitting on Sundsvall, the same sitting on the other mob and a 4 positive figure sitting on the draw. Look at the correct score market and I have a now useless and redundant 88 pot sitting on 0-0 and - 4 sitting on all other score-lines. I could back 0-0 for a little more to leave a small profit pot on the game staying 0-0 which I might be able to sue to very good effect later but that is entirely down to personal choice and let us not forget that we do not expect 0-0 we just want to be guarded against it. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 35

36 What odds do you think I could lay 0-0 at if the score were 0-0 some 80 minutes into the game? Well, let me tell you, even though they were 23 at kick-off you would almost certainly be able to lay 0-0 at odds of 1.5 or 1.6 at around the 80 minutes mark and if I layed 0-0 at odds of 1.5 for 10 it would cost just 5 of my 0-0 pot to do so. That would be the only reason for having an excess 0-0 pot. We would then be much better off if a late goal came. Maybe we now win instead of Again let me stress that you do lose a little in commission to Betfair but the sums if I include this will blow your mind. It is only 5% of actual profit made on each market so don t worry about it. The net effect of commission is that you lose a tiny amount of your profit. If it worries you multiply whatever you were going to apply as a stake by 1.06 and then commission is built in. The big danger comes if there were to be two goals of course, one to each side, but any goal at any stage needs to be followed with decisive action to back the draw and, hopefully, this is a goal to the favourite (after all they were odds on) and we can create profit on a no draw and even, if we wish, a draw result. If it is an outsider goal, well read on for the answer to that predicament. Alternatively, perhaps, as their odds should drop away dramatically after a goal, I could look to lay the team that has just scored especially if that s the favourite and I would do this if that proves to be cheaper and better for me. So in the end whatever happens, because of the insurance pot I created at the outset, I can make sure that any loss I suffer is as small as possible. What I must always remember though is that if I am going to take the insurance route, then I should make a bigger lay at the outset to give me extra fighting funds and I must always accept that I could be compromising some profit for this extra safety. So what about an early goal followed quickly by an equaliser I hear you say. Well no strategy can get you out of all possible trouble but remember these two things: 1) The earlier this 1-1 scenario happens the more likely it is that another goal later comes along and you can sometimes get lucky in this way and 2) Always, always, act when any goal is scored even if it is to just partially reduce you worst possible loss figure. Do not ever just wait and gamble on it staying 1-0 or going 2-0. It may, yes and it could have been that you got a bigger profit but action is always better than a sit and hope strategy. By the way, as often, perhaps more often than I have seen an instant bang, bang 1-1 situation I have seen a bang, bang 2-0 situation unfold. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 36

37 Until you are totally comfortable with all of the strategy you should watch as many games as possible developing without any financial commitment. The only viable time to cover against a 0-0 result is prior to the match kick-off. Again, if you choose not to cover 0-0 that is fine but this may expose you to more risk than you are comfortable with in the early days. You will find some 0-0 games that had red-hot, odds on favourites. It is as inevitable as night following day. You must decide whether you want insurance or not. But do please decide with personal knowledge of having watched a good few games develop. From the moment the whistle blows and the match has begun a 0-0 result becomes more likely and, the longer the game goes on, in the absence of any goals, a 0-0 result could hurt you if you do nothing to prevent it. If you are happy to accept that there will be games where you will just simply have to take early action to back the draw at lower odds than you layed at and, in the process, create either a loss everywhere on every outcome or a zero profit on a no draw result with a loss (albeit reduced loss from the starting point) on a draw result then by all means do not bother with the insurance strategy and take bigger profits more easily from the games that go well, meaning the games that produce a goal, ideally first half goal, for the favourite. You now know that a safety net is available to allow you to be totally comfortable with a 0-0 game. A Little Lay Bet Clarification. It might be prudent, at this stage, before we move to Step 4 to just quickly deal with a lay bet in a bit more detail in case you aren t totally up with what we ve been dealing with so far. This section is designed to stop you fumbling in the heat of the moment. When you lay, you are inviting people to back against you and you are offering the odds in the same way as a bookmaker would except that the odds are driven by market forces. If nobody decides to back against you at the odds you have proposed or are available, you do not have a wager. Betfair refer to this as an unmatched bet. Equally it is possible that only some, and not all, of your wager is taken up or, to use Betfair terminology again, matched at those proposed odds. If you lay at 100, you are inviting up to 100 of bets against you and no more. The same principle applies in reverse with a back wager. When you back an outcome somebody else on the exchange has to be offering a lay proposal on that outcome. This is exactly why the liquidity in the market is important and you need action in that betting market And the bigger the volume of cash in the market now, the better the probability is that later, when you want to reverse your position, the punters will be there to match your bets. You can t lay unless someone else is prepared to back and you can t back unless someone else is prepared to lay John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 37

38 If your lay wager proves to be a winner and, to use the draw example, the game ends and it is not a draw you will receive the stakes placed by the people taking up your wager (via Betfair) less of course the Betfair commission. If you lay the draw at 100 and all 100 is taken up matched, you will receive 100 (the stakes of those that backed against you) less commission if you win. If the game were, however, to end in a draw you would be required to pay those people that took up your wager at the odds specified when the bet was matched (let us assume that was at odds of 3.35). Those people would then keep their stake and receive a win payment of 235 from Betfair that, ultimately, came from you less, of course, Betfair commission that they would have to pay. This is why, when you make a wager, Betfair are obliged at the time when the wager is proposed to actually withdraw the potential liability from your funds to make certain that all of the wagers are covered and properly paid out after the event. To make a wager, you must have the potential liability in funds in your account before it will be allowed. One final point on lay wagers, it is an obvious point if you are already totally comfortable with the lay wager but if the lay wager is new to you it is worth just covering this point. The mathematics can be confusing sometimes on a lay wager especially, as I said earlier, in the heat of the moment when, say, you are about to reverse a lay wager and back the opposite outcome. To save the panic, here are two quick and effective formulae that you should commit to memory as soon as possible to help you become a stress free and profitable Football Cash Generator protégé. To quickly calculate your lay liability, multiply stake by odds and then deduct stake ( 10 x 3.35 = [stake] = [liability]) Or, alternatively, multiply stake by odds 1 ( 10 x 2.35 [3.35-1] = 23.50) John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 38

39 Step 4 Understanding Commission Everybody needs to make money Step 4 isn t a step in the system at all but it needs to be covered somewhere and it might as well be here. A traditional bookmaker makes his money by always over-rounding his books. In simple terms this means that all the wagers he takes and places during the course of a day have a little extra built in for him. He doesn t just rely on his skill and/or on our incompetence and then hope that we keep getting it wrong and he makes money as a result. He meticulously calculates exactly how to make money whatever the outcome of each event and he does this through the manipulation of the odds that he offers us. That really is an over-simple explanation but it will do for our purposes here because, otherwise, I could use up thirty pages just explaining how that works and you d be asleep by then (if you aren t already of course). It is enough to say that everybody needs to make money and betting exchanges are no exception. They could not offer their facilities unless they could make money from it and, frankly, as long as I make money when I use their exchange, does it worry me that they are also making money? Of course it doesn t worry me. Betfair.com make their money by charging everyone who uses the site a commission but they only charge a commission on winnings or, to be accurate, profit. Guess what, Betfair.com make money too! It is important that you are aware of the commission factor but not important enough to really labour the point. I am going to cover commission here and then I am going to ignore it throughout the rest of the book. When you first start using Betfair.com you will pay commission on your profits at a rate of 5% but, as you become more active over time and make more and more wagers, your commission rate can drop a little. Other exchanges may charge less but are likely to be less well supported and have fewer markets. The simplest and most effective way to deal with commission is to build it into your wagers from the outset and then you don t have to spend time trying to work out exactly what you are going to lose in commission payments when you ve won. With a lay wager you know that you are going to receive other people s stakes if the wager is successful. Another way to look at this is to simply say that a lay wager always returns evens so 100 of lay wager stake = 100 win to you if you are successful. All you need to do is get into the habit of adding 5% to your stake when putting any wager on and then you never have to worry about commission. The simplest way to do that is to multiply the stake by In fact, you ll make a little bit extra this way because 5% added to the stake is worth a lot more than 5% taken from the profit. Let me demonstrate. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 39

40 Add 5% to your wagers and you can then forget about commission and you ll make even more money! If I back an outcome for 10 at odds of 10 and I win this returns 100. After deducting my stake of 10 this is 90 of profit and after commission of 5% I will actually receive If, alternatively, I multiply my stake by 1.06 and I now back the same outcome for at odds of 10 this will return 106. After deducting my stake of this is of profit and after commission of 5% I will actually receive I am now 5.13 better off. The situation is exactly the same if I lay instead of back. If I lay an outcome for 10 (odds are irrelevant on a lay bet for this exercise because you always win at evens) and I win, this returns 10. After deducting commission of 5% I will receive If I lay an outcome at and I win this will return After deducting commission of 5% I will receive I am now 57 pence better off. As nice as it always is to get more money, the biggest advantage of adding the 5% to your stake is that you don t need to keep scratching your head when you see your Betfair.com statement because you can t quite understand why you didn t receive what you thought you were going to receive. One final comment on commission; if you are going to apply this principle of adding 5% to the stake to cover commission, then please do apply it to all of your wagers otherwise you are going to get really confused. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 40

41 Step 5 Down To The Real Business - Lay The Draw We are now ready to put the system into practise properly and get on and lay the draw for a proposed stake that you feel is comfortable. You should start off on paper and then, when you start with money, keep to sums that are within your comfort zone. Please do not be put out by the fact that some of these are images from a few years back. They already existed in version 4 of the book and I have simply updated the parts that needed updating to save time. Only the look of Betfair has changed and the principles of the strategy, as you can see where I have added in some additional modern images, have not changed at all. Football Cash Generator is a timeless strategy that will continue to make money for those that use it properly as it has for those that have used it over the last ten years. It simply works and that is all. Here we see the Holland v Latvia game which, when I wrote this bit, was last night but was actually over 9 years ago now in reality as I revisit this section and that game ended in a final score of 3-0 to Holland. If you pop back a few pages briefly, you ll see the match odds for this game from a few hours before the game kicked off. They were around 5.2 to 5.3. I used insurance here to cover part of the liability (about 50%) on a 0-0 result, as you can see below, in this instance at odds of You need to ignore the size of the wager on this screen shot. Needless to say, I wasn t laying the draw in 10 units back then. Holland v Latvia, Correct Score Having assured myself that, should the game end in 0-0, I would cover half the liability on the lay wager from the profit on the correct score = 0-0 bet, and having, of course, layed the draw I now simply sat back and watched the game with a nice glass of wine in hand. I remember watching practically every single game in Euro 2004 and making a considerable profit from the tournament along the way. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 41

42 What I was hoping for is Holland, as match favourites, to score and the earlier in the game that they did score the better that was for me because I could then take my profit and move on. When the favourite scores the draw price normally goes out (gets bigger) and with a hot favourite, they can go out rather rapidly. In contrast, do remember that a slim favourite will not provoke much a draw movement. It is from this draw price movement that I make my profit. My target profit back then was always 30% if I could get there, 30 of profit for each 100 of lay wager and I always take my insurance wager into account if I have one. In this instance, had I layed for 100, insurance would have cost me just over 31 on a lay wager of 100 at 5.2 (I am ignoring commission for this example). I actually layed for a little more than that, hence the 47 you can see as a stake on 0-0 to cover half the draw liability. I would have a maximum potential profit pot left of in that scenario = 69 if the game is not a draw. After 27 minutes, Holland scored and the market got suspended. You will see this for yourself. When a goal is scored and when a red card or a penalty is given, the inplay markets suspend for a short while and Betfair.com resets itself. When the market had resumed the draw price had gone out to 10. You don t have to make your wife/partner a football widow, watching the game on TV is not essential. To digress for a short while, it is this suspension of the market which is clear to see when it happens, that allows us to operate this system without actually needing to watch a football match on the telly. Not everyone likes to watch football and even people that do can t watch every single game that comes on the box. I almost ended up in the divorce courts when I was developing the Football Cash Generator because of the number of football matches I had on the telly in my house but I soon realised after many a frosty glare from my better half, that I needed to find another way to pursue its development. The solution to those who do not wish to or cannot watch the game is keep the betfair.com exchange match odds screen displayed on your computer screen and watch out for the big red words SUSPENDED that will leap forth when an event of merit has occurred. This display in conjunction with one of the live score web sites will allow you to monitor the progress of your game without needing to see it on the telly. In fact, even without the live score web sites you could, arguably, successfully run this system because the movement in the match odds once the market has reset will generally tell you what has happened. The safe option is to be tuned into the betting exchange and, at least, an Internet live score web site. There are many but the one I now use mostly is John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 42

43 Step 6 Grab That Cash - Back The Draw Just to quickly re-cap, after 27 minutes, Holland scored and the market got suspended. When the market had resumed the draw price had gone out to 10. This explanation is based on a 100 lay the draw stake. My target was always a 30% profit on my lay wager (although I sometimes have to take less). Your target should, at first, be set at perhaps 20% or even maybe 10% so that you can get out quicker and more easily and get used to the system before demanding higher returns. You will often struggle to get much more than 10% after just one goal anyway if you are also covering 0-0. It is for you to decide but remember that the higher you set your profit target the more likely you are to run into problems. It is, nevertheless, vital that you have a profit target and you act upon it as soon as that target is reached. Never ever just try to win as much as you can; this is dangerous and can lead to unnecessary losses. RULE 4 It pays to set a profit target and as soon as you can get out and achieve that target you must! Back to Holland v Latvia, odds of 10 on the back the draw price were not quite enough to give me my 30%. The way you quickly calculate this is: Lay liability = 100 x = 420 (or 100 x 4.2 = 420) + 31 (insurance wager) = 451. Then divide 451 by the available odds less 1 (9) = Then 69 (available profit pot) = (let s call it 19) and I need 30. So I decided to wait a short while and I suggest that if you follow suit you do make certain it is only for a short time. I was younger then and more reckless and I would take much bigger risks than I do now. It was not long before the draw odds had moved out to 12 ( 451 divided by 11 = 41) and I started to come out and take my profit by backing the draw. If the game did not end in a draw, I would be left with 28 profit per 100 of lay wager, close enough to 30% for me to act. What actually happened as I started to back the draw at 12 was that Holland scored again in the 35 th minute (this happens) and the draw price went out to 32! No problem here in hitting my profit target and this allowed me to also put in a little profit should the game end in a draw (as unlikely as that was). This next screen shot (pay no attention to the amounts) demonstrates this point quite adequately I think. Insurance (in this case 47) needs to come off of the 200 if it s not a draw and the if it is. The insurance was 47 because I only covered half my lay the draw liability on 0-0. Whichever way you look at it this game was likely to produce a nice profit and regardless of the final score I could not lose. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 43

44 Holland v Latvia at 2-0 to Holland Did I mention the green feeling? When you get figures in green underneath all the possible outcomes in an event you know you ve won whatever, it s a great feeling! It is at this point that you can slope off to the pub, buy yourself a pint and think about all the less-fortunate people in the world that are still waiting for the final whistle and hoping and praying that their team does actually win otherwise they ve lost their rent money and will never be able to face the wife again. It is this totally safe situation that we ultimately seek. This is the core of what the Football Cash Generator is about. It will not happen every time and it sometimes will take a long time to happen in a match but, in a large number of instances, you will be able to experience the green feeling and it will make everything seem worthwhile. I have been in and out of a game with a guaranteed profit after only 3 minutes of play! But, let s be clear it isn t always that easy. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 44

45 Part 3 The pear-shaped games that sinking feeling and exit strategies! It doesn t always go to plan and it is so important that: a) You recognise the danger signs and; b) You act upon them when you do see them. There are, generally, only three things that can ever go wrong with the system (oh were life so simple that nothing ever went wrong) and none of these things happen too often to cope with. One of them we ve covered already. One of them should not ever occur because it can only occur if we re making wagers on a game that we should not be making wagers on and the third I m going to deal with in some detail. We ve covered the first thing that can wrong and that is, what happens if there are no goals. Clearly, you can see how I have covered that possibility before the game even started with the insurance wager or, at least, reduced the burden of dealing with. I have mentioned a few times that, to increase profits, you can do without insurance and I sometimes cover half of my lay the draw liability with my insurance wager but until you are 100% familiar with everything you need to know about the system try it all on paper first. Cover all your liability with your insurance wager then slowly reduce it down until you are not covering it at all. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 45

46 A quick point here: You may have wondered why you might just cover half your draw liability against a 0-0 result or why you would cover any liability other than 100% of it. The reason is that at some point in the game (perhaps half-time or 50, or 60 or even 70 minutes in) you can still use some of your potential profit on the game not ending n a draw to back the draw and therefore it stays at 0-0 then you have our 0-0 pot to top up the difference. Never risk money on a game until you are totally familiar with all the exit strategies. The second thing that can go wrong is that there simply isn t enough money floating around the market to make all the wagers that you want to make. The short, sharp simple answer here is don t get involved with games where the market information is telling you that there isn t much money about. Remember rule 1 and stick to it. I have been in a situation where the draw odds were good enough to let me out with a great profit but I couldn t get enough money on backing the draw! That was horrible but it taught me a really valuable lesson about paying attention to the action in the market! It would rarely happen now as the markets are so much bigger. The third thing that can go wrong is that the wrong team (according to the market) scores first in a game where, for some reason, the market really believes that a particular team, normally the pre-match favourite, is going to win. When this happens, the draw price does not move out in the match odds market, as you would expect it to, and can even sometimes drop. Also, related to this, is the game where for historical reasons relating to results or because of the highly competitive nature of the game or because the two teams are so closely matched the same problem occurs with the draw price. This happened with England v Portugal in Euro 2004, as you will see in a short while as we look at that game in some detail. RULE 5 Learn the exit strategies! Become so familiar with them that you do not even need to think about them! The Portugal v England game on 24 th June 2004 fell right into the category above (the bit about historical reasons depressing a draw price unnaturally). I will, in a short while, use this game to explain exit strategies in detail. Why that 9 year old game? Well, because I have all the detail on it already and it is still relevant. This is the most complicated area to explain but it isn t a major problem if you follow the exit strategies that I m going to give you. If you do follow these strategies you may find that you rarely lose any money at all. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 46

47 In the majority of games when a goal is scored by any team the draw price (this is to back the draw) moves out and this is the lynch pin to the Football Cash Generator system profits. In some games though the draw price simply will not play ball and you need exit strategies to allow a bail out without loss or, at worst, with the minimal loss you can manage. I am going to take you through the Portugal v England game in Euro 2004 because it is still as relevant today as it was then. It pains me to talk about this but I am sure you may even remember this horrible game well. England were cheated by an incompetent referee when the whole world could see that Sol Campbell had scored a perfectly good game winning goal and David Beckham and Darius Vassell both missed penalties in the shoot out. This was a horrible and cruel night for England but a great teaching model for the system. Match odds market Portugal v England Remember the match odds from earlier? You can see that the odds on a Portugal win and on an England win suggest that there is very little to choose between the two teams. We have to conclude then that there is potential here for problems but, on the other hand, because of the reasonably low draw price this game could produce good profit. I have to tell you that in practise today I would not have traded this game. England were very slightly favourites to win and the draw price was in what I call the green range. I ll explain what I mean by this below. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 47

48 Description Lay the draw price Meaning Red Range 2 to 3.3 Market absolutely convinced that the game will be a draw avoid these games Amber Range 5 and above Very unlikely to be a draw but very high lay liability advise a reduction in lay stake Green Range 3.3 to 5 90% of all games, acceptable draw liability less than 30% will end in a draw So, we are looking at a (just) red range game but with the potential to make good profits for us. However there is reason to believe that we could come unstuck and the market might not respond that positively to a goal. I will now take you through exactly what I did. Once again, please ignore the staking level and do not be influenced in any way by the figures used. RULE 6 Never stake at levels that will make you feel nervous and exposed. This is not supposed to be mainstream gambling! Lay the draw I waited around for a few hours trying to get a lower price to lay the draw prior to the game (I mostly do) but in the end I settled for 3.3, which is a pretty good price and just tips the game over into the green range. I do sometimes wait until after kick off before laying the draw if I haven t covered 0-0. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 48

49 The insurance wager My confidence was high that, in the quarter-final stage of a major competition, someone had to score a goal so I only took out insurance on half of my lay liability. With a great feeling of anticipation I watched the game desperately wanting England to put two quick goals past Portugal so that I could back the draw, come out and watch the rest of the game for pure fun. With higher staking levels I do not bother with building in extra money on the stake to cover commission and my commission level then was considerably less than 5%. I knew exactly what I was going to do with this game because I always work it out in advance. I use a simple formula to calculate my 30% profit and what draw odds I need to back at. The formula is: Total lay draw stake ( 600) x 30% equals ( 180). ( 600) insurance ( 80) ( 180) equals ( 340). This is the stake I have available to back the draw whilst leaving 30% potential profit on a no draw result. Now I divide total liability ( = 1460) by available stake ( 340) and this tells me what odds I need on the draw. I then add 1 to the odds to make sure the 1460 does not include the stake. The result here is 5.3. Never be hesitant, always be decisive, when following the system and know what you are going to do in advance of it happening Would you believe it, dream of all dreams, Michael Owen has put one in the net within 3 minutes of the game starting. I am thinking, along with the rest of the nation, that we are going to trounce Portugal! John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 49

50 I wait for the match odds screen to reset (it always suspends when a goal is scored or a red card or penalty is given) and, shock, horror, what s gone wrong with the draw price? It should be higher than 4! Match odds after 3 minutes of play Oh well, I will just have to wait (WRONG MOVE). The price is bound to go up soon enough. This was my decision at the time knowing that if I was wrong I could still get out later. It must be said though that the alarm bells in this situation should be ringing in your head! In every situation where a team scores a goal (except in a game where there is a redhot favourite and the opposing team has scored first) the draw price will normally move out by 1 to 2 as a minimum. In this game that means that we should have been looking at a draw price (to back) of at least 4.3 at this stage. Let me introduce you to rule 7. Until you have the experience to know how to get out using exit strategies later in the game, you would do well to always follow this rule. RULE 7 If a goal has been scored and the draw price has not moved out by at least 1 get out now if you can get out with minimal loss! Could I have got out without a loss at odds of 4? Yes, absolutely and I could still have taken a 33 profit if the game did not end in a draw and I would not have lost a penny if it did end in a draw. Here is the calculation. Total liability ( 1460) divided by draw odds less 1 (3) = ( 487). Lay the draw stake ( 600) less insurance stake ( 80) less ( 487) equals ( 33). Thus, I win 33 if it is not a draw. Now, what if it is a draw? John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 50

51 Available stake ( 487) x the draw odds less 1 (3) = ( 1461). That is 1 more than the total of my liabilities if the game ends in a draw. So I waited thinking that either the draw price would start to drift out (as would normally have been the case) or another goal would bring the situation to a head. If England had scored again I would be laughing as there would be no way that the draw price could resist the pressure to go out after a 2-0 lead. If Portugal were to equalise I have other strategies to use to get out of this situation. 42 minutes in, still 1-0 to England How weird is this? 42 minutes into the game, 39 minutes after Michael Owens goal and the draw price is still at 4. In fact, it had drifted between 3.8 and 4 since the goal and 4 was the highest it has achieved. I am still not going to make a move yet to get out, as I believe that I still have an exit strategy left to me in the early stages of the second half. This other exit strategy has to do with the next goal market and I am keeping a close eye on what the next goal, no goal price is doing. As you can see below, it is staying slightly ahead of the draw price currently. Next goal market at 43 minutes John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 51

52 The next goal market can often offer exit strategies to us when the draw price has dropped to a point that does not allow us to escape without losses. Later on you will see how this can be used in different situations. The second half commences and the game goes on without that much needed second goal to England. Fortunately, Portugal haven t equalised either but I am approaching a point where, regardless of the score in the game, I am just going to have to get out and accept that this isn t going to be a money match for me after all. I have another golden rule that concerns 70 minutes if I am not already out of the game and that rule is below. This rule is an absolute rule; you must always, always get out at 70 minutes. Getting out, normally means, backing the draw. Hours of research and studying on Betfair.com has taught me that the last twenty minutes of a football match always produce the most dramatic swing in the odds. RULE 8 Whatever the situation if you hit 70 minutes and you re not out yet, get out now unless the score is 0-0 and you have that fully covered! If the score is 0-0, and you have this covered with insurance, there is no reason to panic. I will give you another little tip on this situation later. The 70-minute window has arrived, at this stage, as I said, I never hesitate and I would get out now even if it meant taking a loss. The problem is, if you do not get out at 70 minutes and there is an equaliser, you really do take the chance of making large unacceptable, losses. If you stay and hope you are 100% in gambling mode. 70 minutes in England still lead 1-0 I ve made my move and backed the draw at a sad 3.95 for 480. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 52

53 At this stage I m still trying to hold a little profit in the game if it stays at 1-0 to England. The 120 I pick up if it isn t a draw, less the 80 insurance wager leaves me with a 40 profit. If the game does end in a draw then, as this stands, I would lose 44 ( 36 draw profit less 80 insurance wager). I have every intention of doing something about that situation in a moment even though it s not that bad considering what I had on when I layed the draw. For now I want to wait a little while because England started to press Portugal again and, who knows, they just might score. Moving on, the game has now started to swing back the other way towards Portugal. England look tired and, surprisingly, they look like a team fighting to hold on even though they are in front. I have waited for at least another ten minutes and now I want to make certain that I do not make any losses whatever the outcome. If you recall, right now, I will lose 44 if the game ends in a draw. I don t really like to lose any money if I can help it! 81 minutes in England still 1-0 up I ve made my next move and, as you can see above, I will now win a little whatever the outcome of the game. If it is a draw I will win a whopping great 4.10 after taking off my insurance wager. If the game does not end in a draw I will win 27 after taking off my insurance wager. I still may well get an opportunity to make last minute, risk free, adjustments to add a little to the profit, we ll see. Within two minutes of ensuring that I make no losses if the game is a draw, the Portuguese score a goal. The 70 minute rule has demonstrated its value to me once again. Just take a look at what happened to the draw price after the equaliser! John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 53

54 85 minutes England 1, Portugal 1 If you wanted to back the draw at a price of 1.47 you would have a problem. You would need to invest 100 to return 47. In my case, had I done nothing before Portugal equalised, I would have to back the draw for 3,150 at 1.47 just to return my liabilities on laying the draw and making my insurance wager (and no one in their right mind would ever consider doing that). I cannot stress rules 7 and 8 enough. They are designed to make the difference between speculation and total out and out gambling and, until you become and expert with your own alternate system always come out as stated in rule 7. You might be thinking, what would have happened if Portugal had equalised earlier in the game? Well, in this situation, a lot will depend on the level of the draw price when the goal is scored. Clearly, the longer the game has gone on, the lower the draw price will be when the equaliser is scored but the 70 minute rule (rule 8) is there for a reason. In most instances the draw price will hold up pretty well up to the 65 to 70-minute point. In this Portugal v England game it is very likely that the draw price would have gone down to between 2.3 (if you were really unlucky) and 2.8 had the equaliser come before the 70th minute. RULE 9 If you haven t got out and an equaliser is scored before 70 minutes, immediately transfer all of your potential profit across to back the draw! In this situation you are advised to move all of your available no draw profit across to the draw and then wait for other opportunities that, more often than not, come up towards the end of the game. If we take my real example again, had Portugal equalised in the 65 th minute and had the draw price dropped to 2.5, I would have transferred 520 across to back the draw. At 2.5 this would have left me in the following situation: John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 54

55 If the game ends in a draw and I have done nothing else, I would lose 680 (that s a whole lot better than 1,460). If the game does not end in draw and I have done nothing else, I would win nothing and lose nothing. You must remember that other measures can be taken to alleviate this situation later in the game and also remember that less than 30% of all games do end in a draw. You also need to put this into perspective. At a lay the draw stake of 100, this would be a potential loss of 113 but, given rule 7, you would have been out of this game already when England scored and the draw price did not increase by 1! Let us just run through the calculation with what I have said. We need to start from the position I was in at 65 minutes into the game. At that point the game was not a draw and I had a potential profit of 520 and a potential liability of 1460 if the game were to end in a draw with me having done nothing to protect my position. Portugal score and the draw price drops from 4 to 2.5 instantly. I take my potential profit of 520 and back the draw at 2.5 ( 520 x 2.5 = stake). I am now only going to receive 80 if the game is not a draw (but I spent that on insurance at the beginning) and I will lose ( = 680) if the game is a draw. The only question remaining now is, in that situation, can I find a way of getting the 680 potential loss back if the game should end in a draw? Yes perhaps I can but more about that later. It is time to go back to Portugal v England, because I haven t finished yet. Portugal equalised and I am, if you recall, fireproof. I win 4.10 if it s a draw and 27 if it s not a draw but I do this for profit and 4.10 in the event of a draw doesn t excite me very much. Whatever I decide to do now must, of course, be risk free or as risk free as possible otherwise I m going backwards. I have, naturally, concluded that it is very likely now that this game will remain a draw. I can t be certain but that is the most likely outcome with only 3 minutes to go. This is what I did. 2 minutes to go still 1-1 John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 55

56 I have transferred the balance of my no draw profit across to the draw. I got 50 of it on at 1.4 and the balance on at If the game ends in a draw now I make just over 45 that s a whole lot better than 4 but if another goal is scored I lose 80 (insurance wager). Risking 80 to make 45 doesn t sound like a good deal does it. Next goal odds 1 minute of normal time to go So, by laying no goal in the next goal market, it costs me to make certain that, if another goal is scored, I will replace the 80 (and get 10 profit) I would otherwise lose if another goal is scored and I will still make 25 profit if it stays as a draw. That sounds better to me than risking 80 to get 45. This gives you a pretty good idea of how the next goal market can be used right at the end of a game to either reduce or get rid of any losses you may still be facing and, if your timing is right, you can do this very successfully. In the last 5 minutes of a game the next goal odds will start to go a bit crazy. The no goal odds will plummet and the odds for team A and team B to score will start to go out dramatically. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 56

57 The Portugal v England game did actually end in a 1-1 score line so I ended up making 25. This isn t a lot of money but from a system point of view, what a horrible, lousy match it was. They really do not come any tougher. England were winning 1-0 from the 3 rd minute right up until the 83 rd minute. With just about any other game you could imagine, the draw price would have been up through the ceiling by half time and certainly by the 70-minute threshold and yet, with this game, it stuck all evening at between 3.8 and 4 for the entire first 70 minutes. That is one of the absolute worst movement in odds I have ever seen and yet, the system still managed to show a profit on the game and that should give you tremendous confidence. Even with one of the worst movement of odds I have ever seen in a game, the Football Cash Generator system still managed to show a profit The Portugal v England match showed me odds movements that were very much in line with what normally happens in a game where there is a red-hot favourite and the opposing team scores first against the market expectation. In games such as these, the draw price, when the outsider scores first, tends to either not go out or, as sometimes happens, can even come in for a short while. The draw price will then remain depressed for some considerable time until either the favourite scores or the game is nearing the end of the 90 minutes. I would apply exactly the same rules to this situation as I did to Portugal v England and I would suggest that you pay particular attention to rules 7 and 8 with these games. It would be perfectly sensible, in games where the outsider scores first, to simply abandon the game by backing the draw straight away to reduce the draw liability dramatically. Fortunately, the majority of football games go very much to plan and if you always remember that the system is about winning overall you should find it simple enough. Also, always remember that you can already have over 80% of the game results covered before kick-off. It is also worth just re-emphasising that, outside of 0-0, for a game to end in a draw it has to go through a period first when one of the teams are winning. Armed with this information and given a few dummy runs to enable you to practise without money, and this (below) should be you within no time at all! John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 57

58 Let me now just briefly go back to the situation where a game is standing at 0-0 at 70 minutes and you took out full insurance. Naturally, if you ve followed the plan so far, you will not only have 0-0 covered but you should also expect a small profit from a 0-0 result (because you uplifted you insurance stake to cover commission didn t you). You can, however, do much, much more. The first thing to remember here is that when you get to 70 minutes you do absolutely nothing. Your next action in this game should be left until 80 minutes or if you can resist even 85 minutes. The closer we get to the final whistle the more likely a 0-0 result becomes. Let us assume that you layed the draw for 200 and your insurance wager cost you 50. You ve gone past 70 minutes and the game is goal-less. What you do now is take 50% of your lay wager potential profit ( 100 in this example) and back the draw or, if the odds are significantly better, back next goal = no goal. If the game then ends in a 0-0 draw (most likely result at this stage) you will make a small (but better than before) profit. If there is a goal in the dying minutes, you will still make a small profit from your original lay the draw wager as you left 100 in the pot for that. In some very, very rare games, two quick goals may be scored taking the game to 1-1. If you want to avoid the problem this might cause you, you should be able to back the draw at huge odds after the first goal and before the second goal whilst still keeping a small profit in the game if it is not a draw. You Must Treat This Next Section With Utter Caution Absolutely Not For The Nervous! Before I finish off the section on exit strategies, I want to talk about other techniques that you can sometimes use to get yourself out of trouble. An element of extra caution must be applied to what I am going to tell you here because this strategy could be classed as simply an attempt to buy yourself out of trouble and that is something that, as a matter of principle, you should never do. So this is all very much optional and can sometimes be rather risky. It isn t really buying yourself out of trouble though if you know exactly what you are doing and follow it through properly. This concerns the next goal market which, as you know, is another of our in-play markets. Let us assume that you are using the system on a game and when the first goal was scored you could not get out without still making a loss (typically this is because the under dog has scored and the draw price will not move out) and you did not, for whatever reasons, nevertheless reduce your draw liability. You should have done just that, but you did not. An equaliser is then scored before the 70-minute window and the game stays at 1-1 until the 70-minute window arrives. If you do nothing and hope for another goal you are most definitely in the realms of pure gambling. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 58

59 You ve got to get out according to rule 8 and you are faced with a poor draw price and bad losses on the game if it stays as a draw. Let us assume that you laid the draw originally at 3.3 for 100 giving you a 230 liability should the game end in a draw and your insurance wager was placed at 11 and cost you 24 so your maximum potential profit pot in the event that the game is not a draw is 76. At the 70-minute stage let us say that the draw price is 2.5. It is unlikely to be lower than this as the only reason you were not able to get out in the first place was because the favourite had not scored first. Now that the favourite has equalised the market will be reluctant to depress the draw price too low yet because the favourite still has 20 minutes and injury time to win the game and the expectation will be that the favourite does just that. You transfer your no draw profit figure (ignore your insurance wager for this bit) across to back the draw ( 100 x 2.5 = 250 less 100 stake = 150) and you are still going to make a loss of 104 if it s a draw ( 230 original draw liability + 24 insurance wager = 104) and 24 if it isn t a draw (insurance wager). You may well consider that, at this stage, you want to leave it there and accept that, if the game stays as a draw, you are going to lose this 104. After all, you are going to be winning this back on other games soon enough and there is still time for the game to produce another goal and, if that s the case, your losses are only 24. This is, after all, considered to be the most likely outcome according to the market and according to statistics that we ve seen. You may well just accept the losses as this stage in the comfortable knowledge that you ll get them back on other games Don t forget that the market still expects the favourite to win this game but as the game is currently a draw there is a strong chance that it might end as a draw and you should always start, in my opinion, from the position that you are currently in. Put another way, it s a draw at the moment, so you might want to assume that the game is going to stay as a draw, even if the favourite is expected to win. When you look at the next goal odds market, you should see that the no goal price is probably also at around 2.5 (it could be a little higher or a touch lower). So how would we use this to potentially recapture our losses? At 70 minutes in there aren t normally too many more goals in a football match and, the more competitive the tournament, the less likely goals become. In all probability this game standing at 1-1 will either stay there or, perhaps, go to 2-1. If it goes to 2-1 you are only going to lose 24 right now. My first concern, however, may be that I want my 104 back if the game stays as it is at 1-1. The draw price has now dropped below 2.5 so I am going to back no goal in the next goal market, for 70. If the price to back the draw were higher than the price to back no goal, I would not back next goal = no goal at this stage, instead, I would back the draw for whatever stake I needed to. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 59

60 If the draw price is higher, back the draw again. If the next goal = no goal price is higher, back that. Why 70? To calculate what stake to apply you need to take the amount you need to make and divide it by the available odds less 1 ( = rounded to 70). Now I am going to hope that the result stays as it is. If it does and the game ends 1-1, I have dealt with my potential losses of 104. If it doesn t, and another goal is scored, I am, in this example, still really no worse off than if I had done nothing and it remained a draw. In fact, I am slightly better off right after the goal than before when it was 1-1 and I still had 104 in potential losses, so I haven t really made my position any worse by trying to get my losses back I have just changed where the loss occurs albeit that, with hindsight, I most certainly could have been better off had I done nothing. But you just do not know when or if a goal is coming and it is for you to decide if you want to protect against the current score remaining or take a chance that another goal comes to get you out of trouble. Let me explain what I ve just said again. Now the game is standing at 2-1 and, if you recall, before I had this new, no goal, wager, I would have been 24 down had the game not ended in a draw. I ve added 70 to those losses so I am now 94 down if the game stays as it is at the now new score-line of 2-1 and doesn t end in a draw. Before I made the next goal = no goal wager I was looking at being 104 down had the score stayed the same and had not moved on to 2-1. Therefore, arguably, I made a losing wager and found myself no worse off really than I was before I did it. Of course, the odds available on next goal = no goal will be the deciding factor on this, and, they may have been bigger and therefore I may have not increased the loss on a no draw result by as much. Even though another goal has been scored and I lost my no goal wager, I am now no worse off than I was before making the wager! If you are really brave you could now, of course, repeat that action to try once more to get your losses back by backing no goal in the next goal market again but I have to say that it would be considerably risky now having been unsuccessful the first time. If you were to suffer yet another goal on repeating this, your losses would now be substantial compared to before. Another little strategy using the next goal market that can also help to enhance your profits is what I call the insurance recovery wager. The strategy suggests, as you know, that you could cover a 0-0 possibility with an insurance wager. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 60

61 In most games of course, this soon becomes dead money because a team scores a goal. When that happens you will mostly be able to get out straight away with your target profit level but, if you can t, it is normally because the wrong team have scored first (let us call them team B). In this situation there is a pretty good chance that the other team (normally the favourite, who we will call team A) is going to get a goal back. The thing to do now is to look at the next goal = team A (favourites) to score odds and back them to score. Let us say that the odds are 2 (evens) and your insurance wager cost you 25. You have a maximum potential profit pot of 75 should the game end in anything other than a draw so why not put 25 on next goal = team A to score. If, as expected, team A do score next, you have salvaged your insurance wager and you now have a maximum potential profit pot of 100 to play with. If, alternatively, there are no further goals then the draw price eventually has to start going out and you should still be able to escape with some profit. Remember that you still have a 50 maximum potential profit pot left if the game does not end in a draw. If, as a final possibility, team B scores again, the draw price will fly out and you will still, again, have a maximum potential profit pot of 50 to play with. Mostly, when you apply this strategy, team A would score giving you your next goal = team A to score wager back and your insurance wager back. Then you have to work at producing your profit as if the game were starting for you at 1-1. Rules 7 and 8 may still come into play later but having that larger potential profit pot to play with really helps your situation. It would be very easy for me to go on for another 50 pages about potential exit strategies. The bottom line is, stay aware of the odds available around you and never forget that you can propose your own odds. All in-play markets suspend when a goal is scored or a red card or penalty is given out. If you want to propose odds on a wager, remember this if you are planning to leave the proposal until someone takes it up as the game could suspend again before it is taken. Finally, for this section, if you have arrived at the 70 th minute in a game and the score is currently 1-0 and you really do not want to comply with rule 8, you do nothing and sweat the game out in the hope that it doesn t become a draw. In these circumstances just remember that if it goes to 1-1 very late in the game you will need to be brave enough on the next goal = no goal wagers to dig yourself out of trouble and you may well be looking at some pretty large wagers now to do this. Also, during your paper trading stage, try to keep an eye on the over/under markets, particularly 1.5 goals and 2.5 goals. Sometimes these can offer alternate exit strategies in difficult situation. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 61

62 Part 4 The Football Cash Generator Summary The Football Cash Generator, whilst classified as a football trading strategy is, nevertheless, a form of gambling. The upside of that is that you are able to take money from the results tax-free. The downside is that if you do not apply discipline to a gambling system, especially when a situation needs action to reduce liabilities, then you could suffer unacceptable losses. Always bear that in mind. As a form of gambling it is important that you understand that you should never gamble with more money than you can afford to lose and this can only be judged at the outset on the basis of what if, I could take no action after making this bet. However, it isn t all doom and gloom, remember that the majority of games do not end in a draw and you can always insure against a 0-0 result. In the 2003/2004 season when I first started using this method, only 67 games out of 380 premiership games ended in a score draw so, in that season, you would have had a 313 in 380 chance of being out the game with some good profit. And 0-0 can be covered with an insurance wager that, if increased only slightly, can make those games also profitable or, certainly, allow you exit with no loss. We should always try to remember as well that score draws go through a period when a team is winning so even some of the 67 games could have been profitable. In 2012/2013 that figure was 73 score-draws from 380 games. In 2011/2012 it was 65 games. I could go on and on but I know that typically score-draws would represent no more than 19% of all games on average. Sometimes the figure would hit 20% or even 21% and sometimes it would be as low as 16% or 17% Even the score-draw games often give you an opportunity to win before they become draws You should familiarise yourself with the appropriate statistics covering the games that you particularly want to run the strategy with and I would recommend a visit to a good statistics site such as You should aim, with the Football Cash Generator to give yourself a 10% to 15% return on your money on average but it is perfectly fine to set this lower in the beginning so that you can become comfortable first. The lower you set the profit target the less likely you are to get into any trouble with a game. If you can regularly make even 5% per day with your money then, over a week, that s a very healthy profit being generated from the comfort of your own home. You will win in excess of 80% of the time but you will lose on some games, that, is an unavoidable fact. Do remember that the returns are achieved over many games. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 62

63 The Football Cash Generator has not been developed to be used as a one-off, now and then, betting system so should never be used in isolation and judged on just one game. You need Internet access, a betting exchange account and a TV to operate the system but it is possible to use the system without watching the TV. It is perfectly possible to do away with pre-match research and shorten the time devoted to each betting possibility and, providing you have enough liquidity in the market and acceptable odds you would, in most instances, still be able to take a profit from the game in this way. However I recommend that you avoid games where the teams are deemed to be too evenly matched to separate properly (indicated by their odds being too close together). Not because there is a massively increased chance of it being a draw but, simply, because a goal may not move the draw price sufficiently to make you any money. I would recommend a gap of at least 2 whole points difference in odds and preferably 3 before getting involved. Before attempting to use the strategy you must be totally familiar with the exit methods that have been outlined. You must apply a disciplined approach to coming out at the right time and avoid the temptation of gambling on the ultimate result. The six basic steps to the system follow in a simple visual form but remember also, if you do not cover 0-0, you need not lay the draw until the game has actually started. You may then get even bigger profits having obtained a better value draw price. Here are the 6 basic steps to the strategy after researching your game: Step 1: The betting exchange must be offering in-play or in-running betting markets for the Football Cash Generator strategy to work. In-play Step 2: Any game that you apply the Football Cash Generator system to must have taken at least 10,000 in wagers before the game commences. 10,000 Step 3: You can cover yourself against the game ending with no goals having been scored. This is referred to as the insurance wager. Insure against 0-0 until you are more comfortable John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 63

64 Step 4: You should allow for betting exchange commission on your profit. The simplest way is to multiply your stake by Don t forget Commission Step 5: You lay the draw, for the lowest odds you can get, before the game commences or during the game because this is the least likely result. Lay the draw at the best odds possible. Step 6: Back the draw when a team has scored to lock in your profits whatever the outcome. Back the draw after a goal. The Golden Rules RULE 1 There must be a minimum of 10,000 in matched wagers before a game kicks off for the strategy to be used safely. The more money matched, the safer the game is from a trading perspective. RULE 2 Have a staking plan on your lay wagers in the early days of using the strategy so that you are not exposed to too much risk and you do not feel under pressure. RULE 3 Until you are totally comfortable with the strategyyou might want to back 0-0 to return the total of your lay the draw liability! RULE 4 It pays to set a profit target and as soon as you can get out and achieve that target you should! John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 64

65 RULE 5 Learn the exit strategies! Become so familiar with them that you do not even need to think about them! RULE 6 Never stake at levels that will make you feel nervous and exposed. This is not supposed to be mainstream gambling! RULE 7 If a goal has been scored and the draw price has not moved out by at least 1 get out now if you can get out with minimal loss! RULE 8 Whatever the situation if you hit 70 minutes and you re not out yet, get out now unless the score is 0-0 and you have that covered! RULE 9 If you haven t got out and an equaliser is scored before 70 minutes, immediately transfer all of your potential profit across to back the draw! RULE 10 Do not try to improvise or cut corners on the system. It has been developed after pain-staking research and the investment of substantial cash wagers! Part 5 A quick guide and recap to some alternate powerful strategies Laying after kick-off Another way to improve profitability through reducing the liability incurred when you are laying the draw is to wait until after the match has kicked-off before making your lay wager. The advantages in doing this are obvious (lower draw price, larger potential profit pot) but there are dangers. Laying the draw after the game has kicked off can mean that you do not get on the game at all The dangers are: 1) It is quite possible that, if you wait too long after kick-off for the draw price to drop, you may not actually get on at all. If a goal is scored before you ve layed the draw, your opportunity to profit on the game has, probably, gone. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 65

66 2) Whilst it is possible to look at backing or laying other possibilities, you would not be able to use the system to cover the game unless you layed the draw at 1-1 or it was the outsider that scored the first goal and you could lay them at a sensible level. In both cases I would say only ever in the first half. 3) You can only realistic wait before laying the draw if you forgo your insurance wager as this becomes so much more expensive after kick-off very quickly. If you are fully aware of the dangers there may, however, be times when this strategy of waiting could be preferential. To give an example, it is possible to have a game (as you will know) with a red-hot favourite where there is very little likelihood of the game ending with no goals having been scored (you can never be absolutely certain of course). As long as you are aware of the dangers, extra profit can be achieved by laying the draw after the game has started. You decide that you will only get involved with this particular game if the draw price drops to a certain level. If it does not reach that level or a goal is scored before it does, you simply do not get involved in the game. If it does get to the acceptable level, you get involved and lay the draw. Laying in stages Instead of simply taking the chance of not getting on a game at all when you are after better value, lower draw odds to lay; why not lay in stages. I used to do this very frequently and it can make a huge difference as it pulls down the average odds on your lay wager. Let me take you back in time again. It is now 11 th January 2005 and Liverpool are playing Watford in the FA cup (3 rd round I think). Premiership Liverpool are at home against Championship Watford and the pre-match draw odds (to lay) are 6.8. Liverpool are, naturally, red-hot favourites to win. I don t like the idea of 6.8 so I wait for kick-off and put a request in for odds of 6.6 and make the first of a number of lay wagers. The game continues and I place another lay wager at 6.4 and another at 6. Between kick off and half time there are no goals and overall I end up making a series of lay wagers at, in the end, average odds of That means that there is a huge 1.5 differential in my overall liability should the game end in a draw. That also means that it is going to be much easier to make profits if and when the illusive goal is scored. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 66

67 Equally, by staggering my lay wagers I insured that I was in on the action if a goal had been scored early on. Naturally, I did not insure against 0-0 with this one. I love Steven Gerard. I ve always had a great deal of respect for him but when he popped a goal past Watford in the 56 th of this match I simply fell in love with him (don t worry guys the feeling didn t last I m ok now). The draw price went out to 11 almost immediately. Now just quickly work out the additional profit I made as a result of that saving of 1.5 in the draw odds. It is the difference between a profit of 42% and a profit of 57%. I made an additional 15% purely by staggering my lay wager. Additional profits can be made through laying the draw in stages once the game has commenced. As a matter of course I would never have continued laying into the second half because, let s face it, if the game is going to end in 0-0 you are just going to make life more complicated as you increase your liability. Don t continue to lay the draw into the second half in case the game does end in a 0-0 result. No Insurance, or reduced insurance Wager I ve already mentioned that, certainly in the early days, you should not do without an insurance wager and, at the very least, in those early days of using this strategy you might want to consider at least reduced insurance. I really do believe that this is vital and essential to you beginning to grow confident with this method. To be fair though, this book is about telling it as it is and, because of that, it has to be said that I personally, rarely have an insurance wager and, most of the time, when I do have an insurance wager it is not for the entirety of my lay liability. There are exceptional games where I would still cover the entire liability but they are very rare and the reason for this is very simple. You can get out of a lot more games with a profit when you haven t spent money on insurance than you can when you have. The absolute best advice I can give anyone is this, do not wager with your money until you have run many exercises on paper both with and without insurance wagers. Just go into the betting exchange and pretend that you layed the draw for 100 with and then without covering 0-0. Work it all out on paper as the game develops and do this many times until you are totally comfortable. You should never run the system without an insurance wager until you are totally comfortable with all of the exit strategies and have tested the system on paper with and without insurance. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 67

68 If your pot is of a reasonable size and you are prepared to take a few chances it is possible to get out of a nil, nil game relatively undamaged or even with a profit even if you haven t covered all or even part of the draw liability before hand. In this instance I tend to depend on a strategy that I call equalising that I will now cover in some detail. Equalisation I would normally be taking action to do this at around 60 minutes into the game if it is still 0-0. I would not leave it until 70 minutes. I might even start at 55. You may find this surprising but I will, quite often, just transfer money over to back the draw and leave it like that! After all, I will win nothing, lose nothing if the game does not end in a draw and, as only 28% to 30% do end in a draw, I only lose a reduced amount if it is a draw. The gambler in me does tend to lean towards this sometimes but common sense should dictate that you try to get your losses down to an absolute minimum and that is why I came up with the equalisation strategy. Assume I layed the draw at the beginning of the game for 100 at 3.5. It is 0-0, I have no insurance wager and it is 60 minutes into the game. The back the draw odds are now 2.5. I back the draw for 100 and I now have a 100 potential loss if the game is a draw. I will win nothing/lose nothing if the game is not a draw. I now want to reduce my potential losses further so I quickly back the draw for another 250. What that does is leaves me with a loss of 250 if the game is not a draw (this is where I would have been on a draw result a few seconds ago) and I will win 275 if it s a draw. Hang on, I hear you say, that s crazy because only 30% of games end in draw! But, I haven t finished yet. What I am now going to do is one of two things: 1) Back team A and back team B to win or 2) Wait a short while and then lay the draw again. I now have 275 I can spend on backing each of the teams. For simplicity let us say that team A odds are 3.5 now and team B odds are 6 (A are the home team and still very much favourites). If I were to back team A for 150 and team B for 85 what would my position be now? My position having made these 2 simultaneous bets is that I will win 40 if team A win. I will win 25 if team B win (this is the least likely result now according to the odds) and 40 if it s a draw. That is what I call equalising. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 68

69 Yes there are risks especially if you are not quick and positive with your bets and if you were to suffer a goal being scored as you were placing the wagers but, and this is very important, you can not lose more than you were going to lose had the game stayed at a draw and you had done nothing further! In all probability, you would get at least part of the wager on before anything else, namely another goal, happened. Also, I have been simplistic with the odds and the amount of wagers but that isn t too important. If the odds are lower then adjust the figures accordingly. To quickly calculate what you would need to put on one team versus what you would put on another, divide the lower odds by the higher odds after taking off 1 for the stake. So, for example, with the odds I gave you earlier (3.5 and 6) 2.5 divided by 5 =.5 therefore you would need to put around 50% on team B of that which you decide to put on team A to make certain that you keep the liabilities/profits balanced. The alternate method of equalising is more risky but easier to follow and easier to balance. You simply wait, having turned your profit on its head and transferred it to the draw, until you can lay the draw again. For example, having backed the draw at 2.5 and put us into profit on the draw to the tune of 275 I wait until the draw price has dropped to 2 and then lay it again. If I lay the draw for 265 at 2, I will leave 10 of profit in the game if it is a draw and 15 profit in the game if it isn t. If you really don t want to mess around with another lot of calculations just lay the draw for 275 at 2. You will win nothing lose nothing if the game is a draw and will win 25 if it isn t. A simpler way of looking at this last method of equalising is this. If I automatically back the draw when the match odds are at 2.5 I know I can then lay the draw again when the odds reach 2 to equalise the game or, at the very least, significantly reduce my overall liabilities. The real advantage of these equalising tactics of course is to enable you to maximise your profits on games where a goal is scored and there is an increase in draw odds as a result because you did not waste any money on covering 0-0. Backing the draw in stages For simplicity in earlier sections of this book I have simply referred to backing the draw to secure your profits and gave the impression that you carry this out as one, swift, movement. In reality, it does not have to be one movement. Quite frequently I will back the draw in stages to take advantage of what is, after all, mostly an increasing price. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 69

70 (A word of caution here you may find that the draw price actually starts to reduce after initially increasing following a goal for a little while in games where the two teams are not deemed to be far apart in quality). In a typical game (if there really is such a thing) the normal pattern is team A scores, draw price starts to go out and continues to go out until either team B equalises, team A scores again or the game ends with just the one goal having been scored. By backing the draw in stages you can take advantage of an increasing draw price but, as always, you need to be careful There is always a bit of a risk element in waiting once the first goal has been scored and that is why we have rule 4 (get out when you ve reached your profit target) and rule 8 (get out anyway at 70 minutes) but between rule 4 and rule 8 there are often quite a few minutes and, as such, potential additional profits. Once you are very comfortable with the strategy (and certainly not before you are) you might want to experiment a little with backing the draw in stages. If you have decided that you want to do it this way, don t allow yourself to get confused about how much you are ultimately going to be transferring from your potential profit pot to the draw. You must be totally aware of the risk associated with this extra profit strategy. The longer you take to cover the draw, the more likely an equaliser becomes. Of course, it must also be said that a second goal from the same team that scored the first goal is also a possibility. This would have a very positive impact on the draw price. I want my insurance wager back! Most of the time; when you make an insurance wager, you know that the cost will become wasted money and therefore it would be nice to get it back. The problem is that we just don t know for certain what will happen next in a football match except, perhaps, that eventually there will be no more goals. Let us assume that you spent 25 on your insurance wager and team A has just scored a goal making this dead money now. At that stage there are 3 possibilities: a) Team A scores again, b) Team B scores or c) There are no more goals scored If you are determined enough, you can always, eventually, win on a next goal = no goal wager. There will be prices available in the next goal market to cater for these 3 possibilities and, depending upon your view of their value and your assessment of the risk, you might want to try backing one of the 3 outcomes or even 2 of the 3 outcomes to return your insurance wager. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 70

71 It is very important that you isolate these additional wagers from your normal strategy wagers that are specifically designed to give you a profit whether the game is a draw or not. Most of the time I don t worry about trying to get my insurance wager back but sometimes, if I ve covered all my bases early in the game and I m looking at a profit whatever way the game goes, I do. Have a look at the under/over 2.5 goals market after a goal is scored to see if any opportunities exist here. Another market that can be used with good effect to return your insurance wager is the over/under 2.5 goals market. If an early goal is scored, the under 2.5 goals price will normally go out dramatically, sometimes to 3 or more. You could then back under 2.5 goals to return your insurance wager having taken the view that you do not believe that it will be a high scoring game. Statistically about 50% of all games produce less than 3 goals As always, take a close look at the odds to lay the over 2.5 goals segment as this may offer better value. It is quite possible in some games, if you re watching closely to back and lay both sides of a market to guarantee a return. By this I mean that if you upped your stake above what you needed to back under 2.5 goals for the purpose of returning your insurance wager you could then lay under 2.5 goals later to give you your insurance wager back whatever the final result. Seems fiddly I know but I want to give you as many ideas as possible. A quick example of this would be: Goal scored within 15 minutes of kick off. Under 2.5 goals odds move out to 3. You want to get 25 back to replace your insurance wager. You back under 2.5 goals for 25 so that, if the game produces less than 3 goals, you win 50 and get twice your insurance stake back. Towards the end of the game or as the game progresses, no more goals have been scored. You see that the odds on backing under 2.5 goals have now fallen to 2 and so, the lay odds, naturally have fallen with this. You then lay under 2.5 goals for 50 at 2 (it shouldn t take long to get matched). The net result is that you get your insurance wager back whatever the outcome. If a second goal is scored prior to this subsequent lay at 2, then you have it made because the under 2.5 goals odds are likely to plummet even more, so, it will be easy now for you to lay this very cheaply and secure you insurance wager whatever happens, in fact now you can almost certainly add a chunk to your overall profit as well. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 71

72 Part 6 A Final Real life Football Cash Generator example To finish with the strategy, let us take a look at a game from start finish. It isn t the perfect game but I want to give you something to look at that was as recent as possible in terms of when the update was written. It doesn t get more recent than doing a game as you write the end of the manual. September 15 th 2013 and we have a Norwegian game I like the look of. Stromsgodset v Odd are the two teams involved. Let s just go through some checkpoints so you can see why I did this one: *We have an established league with 22 games played by both of these and that s clearly a good thing as we can rely some now on the data. *Both teams have low draw records overall with a combined 9 draws from 44 games this season or, if you prefer a 20.5% draw record. 5 draws from Odd, the away team and under-dogs and 4 for the home favourites Stromsgodset. That s clearly good as it indicates almost only a 20% draw record. 30% is good enough. *There has, on the downside, been 40% evidence of draws between them in the last 5 games each (2 from 5). This isn t ideal but this doesn t worry me enough to put me right off when I see their record against each other. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 72

73 *In their last 7 meetings there have been 2 draws when you include that 22nd September 2010 cup game was 2-0 in extra time (hence the E) that is 28.5% (still under 30%) of those meetings but one of the draws was 1-1 which I am going to assume I could have come out of (had I traded that game) unscathed. *The scoring minutes pattern shows a nice spread of goals throughout all parts of the game, what I especially like are the significant blocks in the last 15 minutes of the first half from each team. I also like it that Stromgodset score more first half goals than second half goals because a home favourite goal in the first half is what you want more than anything else. Let s look now at Betfair and the Match Odds market: John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 73

74 *With the home favourite at 1.6 I like those draw odds very much and have no hesitation now having see this. I would normally just do this game without insurance but I need to show you properly what to do at the start so I will look to cover at least a significant part of the draw liability with insurance against 0-0. *As you can see the odds are a very generous 21 (ok, they actually dropped to 20 just a second after I got 21). 2 gets me a fund of after commission. I have my Betfair settings set to show commission removed so that is why you are not seeing a 40 figure here which you would expect with 2 at odds of 21. If the game were to end 0-0 and did nothing else then I would lose 16. That s just 1 more than what I layed the draw for so backing the draw and getting out at around 70 minutes if I need to will be easy enough and I wouldn t making a small loss if I had to. Now I am all set up and I need only wait for a goal or for the 70 minute period to arrive when I will have to make a small back the draw wager to reduce the potential 16 loss I could suffer by doing nothing. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 74

75 There was a goal in just 10 minutes. As you can see, I have now backed the draw and left 5.46 on the no draw outcome. I wanted to be sure of making 20% at least if the most likely result occurs and to lose nothing if it ends as a draw and because I waited a little while after the goal, the 7.4 that I could have got straight after became 7 by the time I took the bet. I just went ahead and took it because I am not going to worry about losing 52pence if the game ends in a draw. So, there you have it, sweet and simple and, in this case, over with really in 10 minutes. Obviously, I d be off looking for the next game now, wouldn t you? That s all folks! I really hope that the Football Cash Generator Strategy brings you great fortune and pleasure. If you follow it properly it cannot fail to give you an edge and take you from simply gambling to investing in football matches. I appreciate that it is far from simple but it is well worth the effort of reading this over and over until you absolutely have it. The additional strategies given towards the end of the book, particularly, can make a huge difference to your trading. John Duncan 2004/2014, support@profitmagnets.com 75