PUBLIC FINANCE SYSTEM IN VIEW OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

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1 PUBLIC FINANCE SYSTEM IN VIEW OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Jože Sambt University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Economics, Slovenia Vienna Institute of Demography, April, 26, 2006

2 Introduction Budget deficit and public debt as two fundamental indicators of the public sector stance Long term implications of current fiscal and social policy, connected with future demographic happening Generational accounts (authors: Alan Auerbach, Jagedeesh Gokhale in Laurence Kotlikoff, 1991) as method to identify and quantify the intertemporal budget imbalance

3 Relations among generations Intergenerational competition with unequal (voting) power Elderly have become self-interested voters; they possess implicit promises ( nicely printed bonds ) and they don t want to renounce them Pay-as-you-go system in certain circumstances approaches the idea of Catch the cash game

4 Intertemporal budget constraint of the public sector (government) D s= 0 N + N + W g = G (1 + r) ( s t) t, t s t, t + s t s s= 1 s= t Present value of the remaining net payments of existing generations Present value of the remaining net payments of future generations Government s net wealth in year t Present value of government consumption

5 N Method of generational accounts k + D ( s t) t, k = Ts, k Ps, k (1 + r) s= max( t, k ) = i T s, k hs, k, i... in equations We dismember the average age-specific net tax payment in the year s paid from individuals, born in the year k, into: h s, k, i = h g) t, t ( s k ), i (1 + s t h, where s, k i denotes average tax or transfer of type i, paid or received in the year s from the person, born in the year k, i.e. in the age s k years; g denotes annual productivity growth. And finally GA t, k = N P t, k t, k

6 Method of generational accounts... in words Projections of taxes and transfers per capita (usually in two steps: creating micro profiles from surveys and other sources and then calibration to aggregate values from official statistics); they grow with the growth rate g Some categories are evenly distributed over all age groups Demographic projections (prolonged to years into the future) All payments are discounted back to year t which enables comparison of categories and summations

7 Some examples of age profiles Figure 1: Average taxes per capita: Individual and corporate taxes on income and profit; Social security contributions; Value added tax. Slovenia, 2001 (full line is for males; dashed line is for females) SIT (Slovenian tolars) Individual and corporate taxes on income and profit Social security contributions Value added tax Age groups Source: Own calculations, 2004.

8 Some examples of age profiles Figure 2: Average transfers per capita: Education and kindergartens; Outpatient care; Inpatient care; Drugs. Slovenia, 2001 (full line is for males; dashed line is for females) Slovenian tolars (SIT) Education and kindergartens Outpatient care Inpatient care Drugs Age groups Source: Own calculations, 2004.

9 Demographic projections for Slovenia; working group of Slovenian demographers, 2004 Table 1: Number of inhabitants in Slovenia according to different variants of demographic projections in selected years Constant Low Medium High P P65+ [%] 1,995, ,995, ,995, ,995, P P65+ [%] 1,785, ,852, ,914, ,983, P P65+ [%] 1,433, ,561, ,726, ,911, Source: Working group of Slovenian demographers; 2004.

10 Generational accounts for Slovenia Figure 3: Generational accounts for Slovenia by age groups and gender (in thousands SIT, prices from the year 2001) 15,000 10,000 5,000 Total Male Female 0-5, ,000-15,000-20,000 Note: ; Exchange rate in 2001 was: 1 EUR= 218 SIT. So 20,000 thousands SIT is about 92 thousands EUR) Source: Own calculations, 2004.

11 Government s intertemporal budget imbalance Intertemporal public liability of government in the year 2001 was percent of gross domestic product. To establish government s intertemporal budget balance Slovenia should (in the beginning of the year 2006): to all currently living and in future born generations increase all kind of taxes for 22.8 percent or reduce all kind of transfers to them for 18.7 percent or (only) to all in the future born generations increase all kind of taxes for percent or reduce all kind of transfers to them for 81.0 percent (this indicator is purely theoretical).

12 Balancing the government s intertemporal budget constraint Figure 4: Effect of establishing government s intertemporal budget balance on generational accounts (in thousands SIT, prices from the year 2001) 20,000 15,000 10,000 Baseline results Increase of taxes Reduction of transfers 5, , ,000-15,000-20,000 Source: Own calculations, 2004.

13 Components of the government s intertemporal budget imbalance Table 2: Components of Slovenian government s intertemporal budget imbalance in the year 2001 Assumption Intertemporal public liability (as % of GDP) Required increase of taxes (%) Future generations Current and future generations Baseline results If there would be no public debt If there would be no demographic changes If there would be no public debt and no demographic changes Source: Own calculations, 2004.

14 Sensitivity analysis regarding different demographic projections Table 3: Sensitivity of Slovenian government s intertemporal budget imbalance in the year 2001 regarding different variants of demographic projections Variant Intertemporal public liability (as % of GDP) Required increase of taxes (%) Future generations Current and future generations Constant Low Medium High Source: Own calculations, 2004.

15 Sensitivity analysis regarding assumptions about productivity growth and discount rate Table 4: Sensitivity analysis of government s intertemporal public imbalance of Slovenia in the year 2001 by different productivity growth rates and discount rates Productivity growth (in percents) 1 Discount rate (in percents) Increase of taxes for future generations Intertemporal public liabilities Productivity growth (in percents) 1.5 Discount rate (in percents) Increase of taxes for future generations Intertemporal public liabilities Productivity growth (in percents) 2 Discount rate (in percents) Increase of taxes for future generations Intertemporal public liabilities Source: Own calculations, 2004.

16 Government s intertemporal budget imbalances in other countries Figure 5: Official explicit and implicit (with generational accounts calculated) debt of public sector for 12 EU countries (year 1995) and for Slovenia (year 2001); as percent of GDP Explicit debt If there would be no explicit debt Intertemporal public liability -150 Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Ireland Italy Germany The Netherlands Spain Sweden United Kingdom Slovenia Source: European Commission, 2000, page 8; own calculations, 2004.

17 Results for Austria Figure 6: Generational accounts for policy experiments (Thousands ATS; 1995 present values) and required instantaneous tax increase (%) to restore intertemporal government s balance Baseline accounts (1995): 18.8% Consolidation package (1996): 5.5% Pension reform (1997): 2.0% Tax reform (2000): 4.9% Source: Keuschnigg et al., 2001.

18 Conclusions In the public system as it was in the year 2001 there is a huge government s intertemporal budget imbalance in Slovenia (in absolute terms and also in comparison with other countries). The pension reform introduced in the year 2000 will have considerable positive effects in the future, but at the time of the analysis there were no reliable estimates for those effect available. The main reason for this imbalance is foreseen demographic happening. Also in Austria in the year 1995 the imbalance was not much lower, but consolidation package in 1996 and pension reform in 1997 reduced government s intertemporal imbalance a lot. Models are prepared to simulate effects of different policy measures on remaining net tax payment of different age groups.

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