The Dutch pension system, lessons learned. Vidanova, october 4th, 2013

Transcription

1 The Dutch pension system, 'the best system in the world' lessons learned Vidanova, october 4th, 2013 Martin Pikaart

2 Contents 1. Intro: Dutch system 'the best in the world' 2. Basic facts about state and occupational pension 3. Reforms in the past 4. Demography 5. Strong & weak points 6. Underfunding, ripening and recession resulting in chaos 7. Lessons learned

3 Best pension system in the world Dutch system always ranks high(est). Principally because of high h replacement rates. OECD Graph: EU countries 2009 (blue) EU countries 2007 (red) United Kingdom Ireland Belgium Germany Czech Republic France Portugal Finland Slovak Republic Switzerland Norway Poland Sweden Italy Hungary Austria Denmark Spain Luxembourg Netherlands Iceland Greece Kolom O Kolom P

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5 Basic facts (the 2 pillars) 1 State pension (AOW, since 1957) on PAYG basis Gross ~ per month for a single retiree 2 Occupational DB pension on capital basis

6 Occupational pensions No general pension obligation! Sector wide fund is foundation, board consisting of employers and trade unions (private agreement between private parties) 1949: Law Mandatory participation in sector wide funds Almost all sector wide pension funds are mandatory Overall goal: 70 % of end or average salary (+ indexation!) Funding occupational PF contains PAYG elements Pay-outs are legally 'hard' rights Theoretical starting point is male 40 x 40 x 40 fee-earner (wanting to retire as early as possible...)

7 Reforms in the past 80's: Women and part timers allowed (enforced by EU) '92: Indexation rights for deferred pensions (enforced by law) '94: Pension portability (enforced by law) '04: Transition end-wage to middle-wage pension (enforced by 2001 internet bubble) '06: Fiscal privileges pre-retirement abandoned (law) '12: Increase of retirement age to 67 in 2021 (law) and proposal to further increase to 71,5 in 2060

8 It's the demography, stupid! Alternatief voor Vakbond 8

9 Demography: zooming in at 90+ Alternatief voor Vakbond 9

10 Changing investment mix... and resulting mismatch with liabilities 10

11 Strong points of Dutch system 1)Diversification of risks: part PAYG, part capital based 2)High coverage of both 1st and 2nd pillar 3)Occupational pensions in proper pension fund (separated ated from employer) 4)Supervision from Dutch Central Bank 5)High level of professionality

12 Weak points of Dutch system (State pension resp occupational pension) a)political risk in State pension b)funding State pension relies heavily upon dependancy ratio A)PAYG elements in funding B)No individual property rights C)Very complicated system D)Large promises, no proper funding E)Real ambition vs nominal supervision F)No counterbalance in PF governance

13 The returns Alternatief voor Vakbond 13

14 Dutch system is ripe : a completely l different world w.r.t % paid out , 30 % , % of capital belongs to retirees 14

15 Pay-out phase in 2 scenarios Pay-out profile young fund Pay-out profile ripe fund Underfunding di young fund: returns give recovery Underfunding ripe fund: recovery impossible even with decades of high returns

16 USA as example? Within 10 years 40% of Klik om de funds will be empty opmaak van de Within 15 years 65% of overzichtstekst te funds will be empty bewerken Discounted by the expected rate of return of 8% (instead of a risk free rate of around 2%) Too high pay-outs during many years Tweede overzichtsnivea u Derde overzichtsniv eau Vierde

17 Current situation: Chaos Combination of pay out phase through ripening of the system - in already underfunded situation, with -recession (paying off public and private debts) makes Dutch pension system into a potential disaster Trust in pension system is at an all-time low. Fraudulous proposals to 'fix the underfunding status. Retirees and employees are angry, but for different reasons.

18 Lessons learned 1. Tie the retirement age to life expectancy; 2. Collective professionally managed funds with (quasi-)mandatory participation can work fine; 3. But individual property rights are needed to prevent both theft ànd possibly fraud; 4. Pension system (in fact, all social security systems) must adapt to changes in the society; 5. Combination of ageing, underfunding and recession is disastrous; 6. Unsustainable promises will invariably work out bad.