Portugal Programme Assessment

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1 1 Portugal Programme Assessment European Commission, DG ECFIN 15 May, 2014

2 2 Root causes of Portugal's initial imbalances and need for assistance Macroeconomic imbalances Low GDP and productivity for more than a decade High household, corporate and public debts Subdued implementation of structural reforms Trigger for financial assistance request Deterioration of confidence and rating downgrades provoked rates incompatible with long-term fiscal sustainability Banking sector lost international market funding and started reliance on the Eurosystem for funding

3 3 EU-IMF Economic Adjustment Programme Restoring investor confidence via consolidating public finances, enabling sustainable growth and safeguarding financial stability Executing a credible, balanced fiscal consolidation strategy Rebalancing the economy from non-tradable to tradable sector to improve Portugal's net external position Further supporting the financial sector through more robust supervision and strengthening bank capitalisation Implementing an ambitious structural reform agenda to boost potential growth, improve labour market outlook and regain competitiveness Mitigating negative social impact of the adjustment process

4 Key Programme Achievements 4

5 Output Recovery Gaining Momentum Real GDP growth projection for 2014 in line with EA 4 % change y-o-y f Portugal EA-18 Source: Eurostat, DG ECFIN 5

6 6 Government Bonds at Pre-Crisis Yields Financing costs have been reduced in recent issuances 20 in % bps France Ireland Spain Italy Slovenia Portugal Portugal 10-year Bond Germany 10-year Bond Spread 10-year Germany Government Bond Note: Daily data as of 14 May 2014 Source: Bloomberg

7 7 Transition to Export-Oriented Growth Model Exports as % of GDP have improved but remain below comparable EU MS 45 % of GDP 120 % of GDP f Exports as % of GDP Imports as % of GDP 0 Ireland The Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Nominal exports as of 2013 Source: Eurostat; DG ECFIN

8 8 Competitiveness Is Recovering Keeping reforms on track will be crucial to maintain the upward trend 114 index 2005= NULC EA18 REER 37 Countries Note: NULC and REER series are inverted Source: DG ECFIN

9 9 External Adjustment Is Ongoing Further improvements in the external balance are necessary to reduce NIIP % of GDP Net lending/ Net Borrowing as % of GDP Net International Investment Position as % of GDP (rhs) Source: Eurostat

10 10 Labour Market Has Bottomed Out High youth and general unemployment remains concerning 20 % % General Unemployment Rate Youth Unemployment Rate (rhs) Source: Eurostat

11 Fiscal Adjustment Has Been Substantial 4 % of GDP f 2015f Deficit - Programme purposes Structural balance Structural primary balance Note: For the purposes of the Programme, the budget deficit in 2012 excludes the impact of CGD recapitalisation (about 0.5% of GDP), and in 2013 BANIF recapitalisation (about 0.4% of GDP). Source: Eurostat; DG ECFIN 11

12 12 Public Debt High but Sustainable 140 % of GDP Baseline Shock : -1p.p. GDP growth from 2016 Shock : +1pp GDP growth from 2016 Interest rate shock : +1p.p. from 2016 Combined shock (growth -1 pp, interest +1pp) from 2016 Combined shock (growth +1 pp, interest -1pp) from 2016 Source: Eurostat; DG ECFIN 12

13 13 Banks Have Adjusted Significantly 180 % % Q4 2010Q4 2011Q4 2012Q4 2013Q4 Core Tier 1 Ratio (rhs) Loan-to-deposit ratio Note: Core Tier 1 ratio according to Programme definition and excluding the banks in resolution Source: Banco de Portugal 13

14 14 Corporate Sector: Slow Deleveraging and High NPLs % GDP % NFCs Indebtedness Total NFCs NPLs (rhs) 0 Note: Indebtedness refers to lending and securities other than shares in the domestic banking sector Source: Banco de Portugal; DG ECFIN 14

15 15 Key Structural Reforms Were Undertaken Labour market Key labour code changes to improve flexibility, reduce segmentation and increase incentives to work Implementation of strategic plan to fight youth unemployment Education Comprehensive reform of pre-university education system to increase school autonomy and accountability Vocational training reforms to enhance labour market matching Housing market New urban lease law to increase access to rental housing and improve labour mobility New incentives for renovations

16 16 Key Structural Reforms Were Undertaken Energy markets Liberalisation of electricity and gas markets Several wide-ranging reform packages aimed at reducing excessive rents and cutting the electricity tariff debt Transport sector Telecoms & postal sector Modernization of regulatory framework, including creation of AMT Reform package in ports sector to reduce end user costs, including new port labour law and elimination of port use fees Various cost-saving and liberalisation measures in railways sector Liberalisation and opening up to competition of telecoms and postal sectors, including privatization of postal services company Strengthening of regulatory framework for telecoms sector

17 17 Key Structural Reforms Were Undertaken Business environment Simplification of licensing procedures for businesses, moving to a zero authorisation approach Establishment of Single Point of Contact for entrepreneurs Introduction of "one-in/one-out" rule for burdensome new regulations Compilation of inventory and cost analysis of regulations Services & regulated professions Sector-specific amendments to liberalise a wide range of legal regimes governing the services sector Framework law and new by-laws (in progress) to remove unjustified barriers to entry in key regulated professions

18 18 Key Structural Reforms Were Undertaken Judicial system New Code of Civil Procedure to expedite court process Court system reform to improve efficiency and accountability Various measures aimed at speeding up debt enforcement cases Regulatory framework Adoption of new legal framework to strengthen role of key sectorial regulators and Competition Authority and to ensure their independence

19 Distance to Frontier (*) Distance to Frontier (*) 19 Distance to Frontier (*) Ease of Doing Business Improving "Distance to Frontier * " evolution for selected "Doing Business" indicators (Portugal versus average for other EU countries) Overall ease of doing business PT EU26 exc. PT PT Starting a business EU26 exc. PT Dealing with construction permits PT EU26 exc. PT *Note: "Distance to Frontier" measures performance relative to the best performance ever observed for any country. Index values ranges from 0-100, with 100 being the best. Source: World Bank "Doing Business" reports,

20 20 Much Achieved But Challenges Remain GDP growth still not robust and unemployment is unacceptably high High debt levels suggest Portugal could be affected by a turn in bond market sentiment Corporate sector indebtedness and high NPLs continue to weigh on bank profitability and growth Concern that reform momentum has slowed in key areas A continued strong commitment to structural reforms and fiscal consolidation is essential

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