Sensitivity Analysis for Small Hydropower Plant (SHP)

Transcription

1 Sensitivity Analysis for Small Hydropower Plant (SHP) Adriana Catanase, William Phang 1

2 Agenda SBI/SCG Present and future of Small Hydro Power Plants valuating a small hydro project Small Hydro project structure quipment Selection lectricity Production conomic Model Sensitivity 2

3 Introduction As part of ensuring a sustainable energy future, SBI develops and invests in carbon emission projects under the UN Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) through SBI Carbon Solutions We bring value to projects from both a technical and commercial perspective, so that the full carbon credit potential of the asset is realised 3

4 Small Hydro Present and future Contribution Worldwide installed capacity of SHP is 61GW. SHP in urope is the second highest contributor; 68% uropean Commission s Renewable nergy Roadmap identifies small hydro power as an important ingredient in U s future energy mix; SHP is highly efficient, reliable and a proven technology; 20, % 20,000 urope is a market leader in SHP technologies; urope 6.1% North America 2.7% South America 0.5% 0.4% Africa Asia Australia With different development programmes and incentive schemes for renewable generation, small scale hydro power plants are of interest for developers and investors. (SHA) 4

5 valuation Process of Small Hydro Scheme Identification of a site with change in elevation over a relatively short distance; valuation of the flow rate available for hydro plant and the annual electricity production; Preliminary evaluation of the plant costs; Preliminary evaluation of plant economics based on possibilities to finance the project, government support, tax exemption and incentives; Review of the planning process and regulatory requirements. 5

6 Successful project Investment Cost Operation and Maintenance Cost Revenues from lectricity Production 6

7 Small Hydro Project Structure X P N D I T U R S S T R A M Construction time IDC Planning Taxes Roads Transm. Line Contingency Weir/Intake Waterways Power House M& Rates DVLOPMNT COSTS CIVIL MCHANICAL & LCTRICAL OPRATION & MAINTNANC SHP Project Discount Rate Project Lifetime nergy Present Value Net Present Value nergy Delivered lectricity Prices Incentives Prices R V N U S S T R A M 7

8 Small Hydro Project Structure Flow-duration Curve Turbine fficiency Curve Plant Capacity Power-Duration Curve Flow [cm/s] Flow [cm/s] % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 10 Percentage flow equalled or eceede Power, [kw] Available nergy 0 0 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Percentage flow equalled or eceede Delivered nergy to the Grid 8

9 quipment selection Suitable selection of hydro turbine for specific site is the key to success; General diagrams are quoted in International Standards or are supplied by turbine manufacturer; Specific speed concept tend to be used in the selection; Unit expected efficiency could be a choice parameter. 9

10 quipment selection MULTI JT PLTON TURBIN Very flat efficiency curve and high part load efficiency; No major concern on part load vibrations, cavitation and no axial thrust; For load rejection, flow can be diverted from the runner with deflectors, resulting in low pressure rise in the penstock; FRANCIS TURBIN High peak efficiency, ~ 3% higher than Pelton but unable to operate at low flows; Suffers from higher part load vibrations, cavitation (within acceptable limits for modern designs) and variation of axial thrust; High pressure rise in the penstock during the closing time of guide vane and runaway characteristics. Surge tank or pressure relief valve needed; 10

11 Conference Title, Date (to edit > View > Master > Slide Master) Small Hydro conomic model 11

12 Conference Title, Date (to edit > View > Master > Slide Master) lectricity Production 12

13 Conference Title, Date (to edit > View > Master > Slide Master) Sensitivity 13

14 Conference Title, Date (to edit > View > Master > Slide Master) Sensitivity 14

15 Conference Title, Date (to edit > View > Master > Slide Master) PHILIPPINS Project eligible for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM); Installed capacity: 6.8 MW; Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) in place; Project will generate 25,379 Carbon Credits per year. MALAYSIA Project eligible for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM); Installed capacity: 11.5 MW; Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) in place; Project will generate around 48,000 Carbon Credits per year. 15