Clean Development Mechanism Project Opportunities in Indonesia

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1 Clean Development Mechanism Project Opportunities in Indonesia Pre-feasibility Report on a Micro Hydro Power CDM Project Center for Research on Material and Energy Institut Teknologi Bandung October 2002

2 3.65 MW MICRO HYDROPOWER PROJECT IN INDONESIA 1. Project Description 1.1 Objectives & Conditions of Micro & Mini Hydropower Development Indonesia is blessed with a huge untapped hydropower potential of approximately 75,000 MW. It ranks fourth in Asia after China, the former Russian Federation and India. For Indonesia as an archipelago with few large rivers, micro and mini hydropower have a prominent role to play in developing the available hydropower potential. In the mini hydropower range (300 kw to 5 MW) at least 7500 MW or 6000 plants are economically feasible today. Activities in the mini hydropower sector in Indonesia have so far been confined to a few isolated project-undertaken by the national utility PLN (the State Electricity Company of Indonesia) in co-operation with foreign consultants and equipment suppliers. Exploiting the hydropower resources with a more extensive level of private sector involvement provides an excellent opportunity to serve objectives of both the energy sector as well as development policy. Development of the micro & mini hydropower (MHP) sector in Indonesia has the following objectives : Reducing adverse environmental impacts of electricity generation through the use of an indigenous, renewable energy source, Mobilizing the private sector and rural co-operatives in developing smallscale decentralized electricity generation, Income generation in rural areas through construction and operation of MHP schemes by local entrepreneurs and communities, and Establishing an Indonesian mini hydropower market and local manufacturing capacities for mini hydropower equipment through technology transfer with leading foreign MHP companies.

3 The conditions presently exist in the electric power sector of Indonesia are attractive to the private developers of mini hydropower schemes in Indonesia. The following facts support this statement : Despite the fact that the power market is growing at 13 % annually, PLN is facing difficulties in mobilizing the resources needed to provide transmission lines capacities for new power plant as well as new capacities. A power sub-sector reform granting private participation has been initiated. Regulatory change eliminates bureaucracy and shortens licensing application processes for small private power producers, The legal basis for private sector participation has been established through a number of ministerial decrees and directives. With the aid of the World Bank, the Government and PLN have established a set of documents, the most prominent being the published power purchase tariffs for all Indonesia power systems and a standard power purchase agreement. Mini hydropower has been given priority in terms of tariffs and project ranking. The tariffs have clauses for automatic foreign exchange rate and fuel price adjustment, PLN was changed from a government-operated public company into a state-owned autonomous company in PLN has thus been given a greater independence by the government but at the same time put into a competitive environment. The challenges of this new environment are anticipated to increase PLN s efficiency and ensure a strict least-cost planning approach. It can be expected that PLN will be able to pay for power purchases from the private sector, and Since Indonesia still lacks capital, technology, and professional skills, the country is open to foreign private investment. With the Government regulation No. 20/1994 foreign investors are allowed to hold a 100 % majority in Indonesian companies and up to 95 % in joint ventures. The minimum investment condition of US $ 1 million has been abolished. The investor determines the volume of his investment.

4 1.2 Project Location A bundle of two mini-micro hydropower plant (MHP) projects will be carried out at Jambelaer, Regency of Subang and Curug Luhur, Regency of Sukabumi, both are in the Province of West Java, Indonesia. The total generated capacity is 3.65 MW. Figure 1. Map showing Jambelaer and Curug Luhur in West Java Location 1 : Regency of Subang The project is located in the Regency of Subang, Province of West Java, approximately 50 km northeast of the provincial capital Bandung. (see figure 1 for map of location). The site is located on a multipurpose irrigation network owned by the Indonesian Government. Situated in the Village of Jambelaer, the scheme

5 would exploit canal drops on the main channel of the irrigation system. There are paved road to Jambelaer, it takes about 30 minutes drive from the city of Subang to reach the project area. The site is about 100 km east of Jakarta and can easily reach by car within 2 to 2.5 hours. The canal drops at Jambelaer are part of the Curug Agung Irrigation system, which draws water from the Ciasem River (Kali Ciasem). The irrigation system was initially built by the Dutch colonial government in The Indonesian Department of Public Work (PU) later rebuilt and altered some of the structures. The system is operated and maintained by subsidiary of PU, the socalled Otorita Jatiluhur which was specifically established by PU to run the Jatiluhur Irrigation cum Hydropower complex located nearby. Location of Jambelaer MHP is approximately 2.5 km downstream of the intake on the Ciasem River at Curug Agung. By diverting the flow along the existing right-hand off-take for about 300 m followed by a penstock for another 240 m, a gross head of almost 40 m can be developed. With a design flow 2,7 m 3 /s, the hydropower potential of this site is approximately 650 kw. Location 2 : Regency of Sukabumi Curug Luhur MHP is located in the Regency of Sukabumi, Province of West Java, approximately 80 km south west of the provincial capital Bandung. The site is behind Curug Luhur Waterfall. According to topographic measurement, water from Cikaso River will be directed through intake then to headrace, the length of which is about 300 m. For this MHP scheme, the measured gross head is about 40 m and the estimated penstock length is approximately 100 m. Actual discharge of Cikaso River is at least 20 m 3 /s. Recorded discharge data or annual discharge are not available and discharge measurement done not in the driest month, therefore maximum discharge in the dry season estimated about 12 m 3 /s. Design discharge has therefore still to be determined in greater detail and accuracy, considering all factors including the annual flood, which occurs once in a year, and catchment area. With the estimated net head of 40 m, and discharge rate of 12 m 3 /s, the MHP scheme could generate about 3 MW electricity.

6 2. Partner in Host Country The project will be executed by IBEKA ( Institut Bisnis Ekonomi dan Kerakyatan or People Centered Business & Economic Institute) in collaboration with the local Government to operate the power plant. CDM buyer may also become a joint venture partner. Center for Research on Material and Energy (CRME-ITB) Bandung will coordinate the project activities. 3. Project Scope Both MHP are situated on rivers providing adequate flow throughout the year and thus secure water supply. Jambelaer MHP site will have a headrace (water canal) of 280 m length (enlarging the existing irrigation channel). Actual discharge measured is 4,000 l/s. The design flow of Jambelaer MHP is taken as 2,700 l/s. For Jambelaer MHP site (at Sindang Cai), measured gross head is m using estimated penstock length of about 239 m (diameter 1000 mm), 187 m of which is above ground. The planned Jambelaer MHP site is only 150 m away from the paved road and 20 kv transmission line of PLN. The transmission line losses from both MHP plants are quite small and could be neglected. Curug Luhur MHP site is close to Cikaso River. The discharge of Cikaso River is about more 20 m 3 /s. The site will tap the water flow using short headrace. The powerhouse situated close the river harnesses the drop stream (there was big water fall). The electricity generated will be uploaded to the medium voltage grid (20 kv) of PLN. 4. Project Component & Cost The bundle capacity of the Jambelaer MHP & Curug luhur MHP would be 3.65 MW. The capital of the project is estimated to be USD 9.89 million. The components of investment cost are described in Table 1. Other cost components are described in the section on financial analysis. The crediting period for this CDM project is 10 years with no option of renewal. This option has been taken for the purpose of calculations. Interest is calculated based on remaining loan.

7 Table 1. Investment cost No Component Cost (USD) Jambelaer Curug Luhur Total 1 Project Planning, Engineering, Supervision Preparatory works Civil works Electromechanical works Distribution works Land acquisition, Compensation, Payments Contingencies Contractor fee Tax (10%) Total Investment Emissions Baseline Technology New power plants are needed to satisfy the ever-growing demand of electricity energy in the surrounding area. Existing power plants run on fossil fuels. This renewable energy project will provide 3.65 MW electricity and offset the requirement for diesel generation. The CO 2 emission of the latter technology is 0.88 kg CO 2 /kwh. 6. Emissions Monitoring & Verification Protocol The parameter that needs to be monitored for verification of CERs is power production. For this, the power sold and billed to the PLN will be used. CO 2 emissions from the baseline technology will be calculated from the produced power, electricity generation efficiency of a diesel power plant of comparable capacity, and other factors. 7. Investment Plant In general, most companies will participate in the CDM to obtain emissions reduction credits to help meet their domestic emissions reduction

8 targets in an economically efficient manner. However, companies that have no requirement to reduce GHG emissions may also choose to gain ownership of credits through the CDM at a low price to sell on the international market at a future date. The project will be funded by a long-term loan from a financial institution up to 70 percent of the project capital cost. The project joint venture partners will fund the rest of the investment required by way of equity. The CDM buyer investor can participate in the project through various options such as: o Long term commitment to buy CERs at a (i) pre-determined price or (ii) reference price; o Participation in equity along with commitment to buy back CERs at a predetermined price or at market price at the time of generation of CERs; o Soft loan against likely realization of CERs. 8. Financial Analysis Table 2 shows the calculation of internal rate on Return (IRR) for total project and the CDM investor. As is shown there, this project promises Internal Rate on Return (IRR) value 16.5%. This IRR is higher than rate of interest on term loan (12%). 9. Sensitivity Analysis Table 3 shows the calculated sensitivity of the financial viability (IRR) to changes in the following parameters: Table 2. Financial analysis Project Cost USD 9.89 million Means of financing Debt 70% Equity 30% Rate of interest on term loan 12% per annum Plant load factor 85% Annual electricity generation million kwh CERs generated per year 21,946 (tones CO 2 ) Operation cost USD 0.4 million Proceed to CDM Executive Board 2% of CER proceeds Annual O & M Expenses 1.0 % of project capital cost

9 Project IRR without CDM funds 16.5% IRR at CER price of USD % IRR at CER price of USD % IRR at CER price of USD % IRR at CER price USD % investment cost electricity rate manufacturing cost The main points that can be concluded from the data shown in Table 3 are: project IRR is affected much by the investment cost; a large increase in investment cost would result in a significant decrease in project IRR. project IRR value is also sensitive to the changes in selling price of the generated electricity (electricity rate). At an electricity selling price of 10% less than the nominal value, however, the project is still profitable; refer to the IRR value 13.1% in Table 3 as compared to the interest rate on term loan of 12%; project IRR is insensitive to changes in manufacturing cost; Figure 2 shows that variations of up to 20 % in manufacturing cost around its nominal value do not practically change the IRR. Table 3. Sensitivity analysis Internal Rate on Return (IRR) %-change Investment cost 25,6 20,4 16,5 13,4 11,0 Manufacturing cost 16,6 16,6 16,5 16,5 16,4 Electricity rate 9,7 13,1 16,5 20,1 23,9

10 investment cost manufacturing cost electricity rate IRR %-change Figure 2. sensitivity curve

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