The Norwegian continental shelf

Transcription

1 The Norwegian continental shelf Director General Gunnar Berge The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, 12 January 2006

2 Exploration in 2005 Twelve exploration wells started Nine wildcat wells and three appraisal wells Six new discoveries Two oil discoveries and one gas discovery in the North Sea and three gas discoveries in the Norwegian Sea Proven resources in 2005: million Sm 3 o.e. Gas: billion Sm 3 recoverable Oil: 3-15 million Sm 3 recoverable Best result since 2000 Resources in new discoveries replace up to 50 per cent of the 2005 production 12/01/2006 2

3 New discoveries /01/2006 3

4 TFO 2005 production licence awards Applications from 29 companies Forty-five production licences Of these, 12 are additional acreage to existing production licences. 31 in the North Sea 14 in the Norwegian Sea Three mandatory wells 3D-seismic gathered in 11 licences 12/01/2006 4

5 TFO2005 a comparison with previous TFOs and NSTs Blokker tildelt Utv.till tildelt Antall selskap NST1999 NST2000 NST2001 NST2002 TFO2003 TFO2004 TFO /01/2006 5

6 Areas awarded and relinquished Areal tildelt og tilbakelevert i TFO/NST runder Tildelt areal Tilbakelevert areal (pr ) km /01/ NST1999 NST2000 NST2001 NST2002 TFO2003 TFO2004 TFO2005

7 Production licences in mature areas 12/01/2006 7

8 19th licensing round Schedule 14 Oct Feb June Nov Invitation to nominate blocks Nomination deadline Announcement Application deadline 1st quarter 2006 Award 12/01/2006 8

9 Announced and awarded area per round Distribution of announced and awarded area per round (km 2 ) (including seismic areas) Utlyst, men ikke tildelt areal Tildelt seismikkområde Tildelt areal st licensing round: km 2 announced km 2 awarded runde runde runde runde runde runde runde runde 85 12/01/ runde A + B runde A + B runde A + B runde runde runde-1996 Barentsh.1997 NST runde-2000 NST-2000 (tildelt 01) NST-2001 (tildelt 02) 17. runde NST-2002 (tildelt 03) TFO runde TFO-2004 TFO runde km 2

10 Prequalification 34 companies have been prequalified since the scheme was established in companies as operators, 11 as licensees Nine companies prequalified in 2005 Five as operators, four as licensees Ten companies under evaluation as of 31 Dec Three of these are seeking prequalification as operators 12/01/

11 Prequalification Prequalified in 2005 Altinex Oil, (l) Norway Premier Oil, (l) UK Marubeni, (l) Japan Noreco, (l) Norway Petro Canada, (o) Canada Pertra, (o) Norway Revus, (o) Norway Idemitsu, (o) Japan Endeavour, (o) USA Companies under evaluation Mitsubishi, (l) Japan PA Resources, (l) Sweden Discover Petroleum, (l) Norway Serica, (l) UK Ener Petroleum, (l) Norway Faroe Petroleum, (l) The Faroes Oil Exco, (l) Canada Nexen, (o) Canada Hunt Oil, (o) USA OMV, (o) Austria o = operator l = licensee 12/01/

12 The rig situation a major challenge Rig scarcity leads to: Low exploration activity Production wells prioritised above exploration Challenges regarding drill or drop Reduced production drilling Well maintenance on subsea developments requires drilling rigs However: Positive industry measures to create a long-term perspective Predictable award policy 12/01/

13 Forecast exploration wells exploration wells from mobile facilities 35 One to five exploration wells from permanent installations A lack of rig capacity means that several exploration wells must be postponed. Antall letebrønner According to the op. companies budgets NPD estimate taking into account the rig situation 12/01/

14 Petroleum production Petroleum production (marketable petroleum - preliminary estimates) million Sm 3 o.e : * 257 million Sm 3 oil equivalents. (-6 million Sm 3 o.e. compared with 2004) * Two new fields commenced production during the year, Kristin and Urd 2006: * 250 million Sm 3 o.e. * Two new fields in production, Enoch and Blane : * 1,380 MSm 3 o.e. (o.e. more than the previous 5-year period) Gas Condensate NGL Oil /01/

15 Oil production Oil production (marketable petroleum - preliminary estimates) : * 148 million Sm 3 (2,6 Mbbls per day). (-14,5 MSm 3 compared with 2004). * -7,5 percent compared with forecast from December : * 141 million Sm 3 (2,4 Mbbls per day) million Sm : * 735 million Sm 3 (100 million Sm 3 o.e. less than the previous 5-year period) Condensate Oil /01/

16 Oil production - uncertainty Oil production with uncertainty 200 2,6 2,6 2,5 2,5 3, ,4 2,5 million Sm 3 per year 100 2,0 1,5 Mbbls per day 50 Range of uncertainty (P10 - P90) Historical production Forecast 1,0 0,5 0 0,0 12/01/

17 Resources as of 1 January 2006 Total resources approx. 13 bn Sm3 o.e. 4.3 GSm3 o.e produced 5.4 GSm3 o.e. remaining proved resources Of this, 54 discoveries and More than 200 projects for improved recovery in existing fields 281 MSm3 o.e. approved for development in ,4 bn Sm3 o.e. undiscovered Funn under planlegging 6 % Ressurser i felt 6 % Modning Uoppdagede r e ssur se r 26 % Reserver 30 % Produsert 32 % 12/01/

18 Increase in reserves Target: 5 billion barrels extra oil reserves by 2015 Result 2005: Nearly 1 billion barrels approved for production in Brutto tilvekst - olje 2000 millioner fat olje /01/

19 Investments (excl. exploration costs) Investments on the Norwegian continental shelf (excl. exploration costs) Development of discoveries Improved recovery on existing fields Fields in operation and under development Pipelines and land facilities Historical values National budget billion NOK (2005) /01/

20 Investments (excl. exploration costs) Investments 100 Pipelines and land facilities Facilities Wells 75 billion NOK (2005) /01/

21 PDOs/PIOs in 2005 Approved development plans in 2005 Njord Gas Export Skinnfaks/Rimfaks IOR Vilje Volve Fram Øst Enoch Blane Ringhorne Øst (incl. the changed PDO Ringhorne) Statfjord late life (inkl. PIO for Statfjord Flags) Oseberg Delta Changed PDO Tordis Changed PDO Norne Changed PDO the Gullfaks area Tyrihans (forwarded to the Stortinget for approval) One approved PDO exemption 2005 Tune 12/01/

22 Potential PDOs/PIOs in 2006 ~10 PDOs for discoveries Several changed PDOs for fields in operation (e.g. Valhall, Ula) Closed-down fields may be approved for reopening (e.g.yme) In contrast to the projects approved in 2005, about half of the investments in new discoveries may be in new production facilities (e.g. Skarv, Gjøa, Yme, Valhall). 12/01/