Dept. of Management and Commerce, Sikkim Manipal University, India. Dept. of Business Management, University of Calcutta, India

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1 ISSN : (Ole) ISSN : (Pr) IJMBS Vo l. 4, Is s u e 2, Ap r l - Ju e 2014 Sudy o he Uderwrg Cycle Per d Sscl Alyss of he Performces of he Id Publc No-lfe Isurce Compes he Ls Decde 1 Subhbh Pl, 2 Dr. Sh Mzumdr 1 Dep. of Mgeme d Commerce, Skkm Mpl Uversy, Id 2 Dep. of Busess Mgeme, Uversy of Clcu, Id Absrc The ls decde mfesed he huge growh of he surce secor Id wh he erce of my prve plyers Id surce mrke hrough he IRDA Ac, The chged scero brough mmese compeo d more professolsm he mrke whch ws he moopoly of he 4 mjor publc olfe surce compes ll hese s ll Ths pper s emp o sudy he performces of he 4 publc o-lfe surce compes Nol Isurce, New Id Assurce, Orel Isurce d Ued Id Assurce Compy he ls decde hrough chgg mrke codos. I lso preses deled lyss o he uderwrg experece of hese 4 publc o-lfe surce compes d emps o forecs he performces of hese publc-secor surce compes he comg s. Ths pper lso res o deerme f y uderwrg cycle per exss he performces of he o-lfe surce compes he ls decde hrough he sudy of he combed ro. Keywords Uderwrg Cycle, Combed Ro, No-lfe Isurce, Ler Model, No-ler Model I. Iroduco The Id surce secor (boh lfe d o-lfe) s growg rpd pce. The reforms mde he surce dusry hrough foudo of Isurce Regulory Developme Auhory 1999 hrough IRDA Ac hve pved he wy for ery of he prve plyers he secor brgg more professolsm, compeo s well s creo of rcve surce producs for he cusomers. The dymc growh of he surce secor Id c be udersood from he fgure of surce peero Id over he ls decde. The surce peero s mesured s he ro of premum ( US$) o he GDP ( US$). As per he 2001 sscs, he surce peero fgure for o-lfe surce, lfe surce d boh combed were 0.56, 2.15 d 2.71 respecvely (Source Id Isurce Sscs Hdbook IRDA). The world verges durg h me were 3.15, 4.68 d 7.83 respecvely. I 2010, he sme fgures of olfe surce peero, lfe-surce peero d surce peero hve bee cresed o 0.7, 4.4 d 5.1 respecvely comprso o he correspodg world s verge fgures s 2.9, 4.0 d 6.9 respecvely. Wheres 2001, he Id surce mrke peero resul ws oo behd he world s verge fgure, 2010, he suo s lle dffere where Id lfesurce mrke hs scored frly well surpssg he world s verge lfe surce peero fgure I erms of surce peero resul 2010, he Id ecoomy s he 6h lrges ecoomy As followed by Tw, Hog Kog, Souh Kore, Jp d Sgpore. As per he 2010 d, erms of surce peero, Id hs surpssed coures lke Ch d Mlys d closely followg dvced coury lke Ausrl where surce peero re s 5.9. The No-lfe surce mrke s growg pce of 15% every wheres he lfe surce mrke s mfesg soshg growh re of 32-35% per he ls few s. The curre surce mrke Id s esmed o be roud 60 bllo US$, whch pproxmely 41 bllo US$ s rbued o lfe surce mrke. Tol foreg drec vesme Id mrke s roud 12 bllo US$. The huge growh of he mrke shor perod of me c be ppreced from he fc h he surce mrke sze Id ws oly roud 10 bllo USD Uderwrg s he process of selecg d clssfyg pplcs for surce. I Id, pror o 1999, he surce mrke ws mly govered by he publc secor compes. From 1999 owrds, dffere prve plyers eered he Id surce mrke. I he US surce mrke, where here hd bee my prve plyers he Isurce mrkes sce very log me, horough sudy ws mde regrdg he uderwrg sdrds d he level of premums over me (Rejd, 1999). I hose sudes, ws foud h here exss cyclcl per he umber of uderwrg resuls (s lso profbly mesures he propery d lbly surce). Ths cyclcl per uderwrg srgecy, premum levels, d profbly s referred o s he uderwrg cycle (Rejd, Prcples of Rsk Mgeme & Isurce). I s he per followg whch he Propery d Csuly surce d resurce premums, he profs d he vlbly of coverge, rse d fll over me. Alervely, he edecy of he bove prmeers (propery d csuly surce d resurce premums, he profs d he vlbly of coverge) o swg bewee profble d uprofble perods over me s commoly referred o s he uderwrg or surce cycle. I he US mrke, propery d lbly surce mrkes flucue bewee he perods of gh uderwrg sdrds d hgh premums, clled "hrd" surce mrke, d perods of loose uderwrg sdrds d low premums, clled "sof" surce mrke. These mrke codos re drec or drec effecs of cer ecoomc d o-ecoomc fcors. I he US sudy, ws foud h durg he perods , , , , , , here were hrd surce mrkes whle durg he remg pr here ws sof surce mrke. The hrdshp fer 2001 cme he surce mrke due o oslugh o he WTC wh subseque bkrupcy smll surce compes d oo much loss he ecoomy. Ths ecessed cresed premums wh srge uderwrg cves. Pl e l. (2013) mkes sudy bsed o he performce of he Geerl Isurce Corporo, whch s he premer o-lfe re-surer Id. The Geerl Isurce Corporo ws he lrges o-lfe surer Id d ws he pre body of he publc o-lfe surce compes lke New Id Assurce Compy, Orel Isurce Compy, Ued Id Isurce Compy d Nol Isurce Compy. However, from 2001 owrds, GIC hd bee ured o re-surer d he four olzed surce compes Ierol Jourl of Mgeme & Busess Sudes 17

2 IJMBS Vo l. 4, Is s u e 2, Ap r l - Ju e 2014 ISSN : (Ole) ISSN : (Pr) were cg o s ow erms of o-lfe surce busess operos Id. Though severl prve plyers hve eered he o-lfe surce busess re, sll he 4 olzed olfe surce compes corol over 60% of he Id o-lfe surce busess. Ths sudy s effor o vesge dscve feures o-lfe surce mrke Id mog ohers d o deerme wheher y such uderwrg cycle exss he performce of he 4 publc o-lfe surers he ls decde fer opeg up of he mrke o he prve plyers. II. Merls d Mehods A. Some Defos A umber of mesures c be used o udersd he sus of he uderwrg cycle. Combed Ro s mpor mesure whch s used o udersd he Uderwrg Cycle Per. Combed ro s he ro of pd losses d loss djusme expeses plus uderwrg expeses o he premums. If he vlue of he combed ro s greer h 1 (or 100, whe he ro s mulpled by 100), he c be sd h he uderwrg operos re uprofble. For exmple, f he combed ro s 1.08 (or 108) he for every INR 100 colleced s premum, INR 108 s pd by he surer s he expeses d he clms. Ered Premum The reveue ered by he surce compy s premum prculr fcl. Ivesme Icome The reveue ered by he surce compy from sources oher h premum come, lke eres from svgs ec., fcl. Tol Icome The ol reveue ered by he surce compy prculr fcl s he sum of ered premum d vesme come. Icurred Clms Clm s he expese whch s mde by he surer o mee up suree s loss. Operg Expeses Ths expese s mde by he surer order o ru he surce busess. I cludes offce re, expedure o prg sores d oher offce expeses ec. Uderwrg Prof/Loss I s he dfferece bewee he ol premum ered fcl d he ol expeses mde h fcl. If s posve, he uderwrg experece s profble bu f s egve, he he busess s o profble. B. D Source A mjor seco of he d hs bee colleced from he ul repors of he Nol Isurce Compy, Orel Isurce Compy, New Id Assurce Compy d Ued Id Assurce Compy Aul Repors from FY o FY. Apr from hose bove, some d hve lso bee colleced from IRDA mohly d ul publcos. The uderwrg dces, lke, uderwrg prof/loss, combed ro d prof/loss percege ec. hve bee clculed bsed o he bove-meoed d. Grph 1 Ne Premum Icome ( Crore INR) Grph 2 Icurred Clms ( Crore INR) There s cosse growh he combed e premum come of he 4 o-lfe publc surce compes ll s. (Grph 1) Nol Isurce, New Id Assurce d Ued Id Assurce hd show growh e premum come ll s, however, he premum come of Orel Id Isurce hd dropped from he prevous he fcl The performce of New Id Assurce hd bee bes erms of e premum come geero mog he 4 publc surce compes. The curred clms fgure showed cos rse over s for New Id Assurce, Orel Isurce d Ued Id Assurce Compy wheres for Nol Isurce here ws decrese curred clms fgure he fcl s d (Grph 2) III. Resuls d Dscusso Dscusso o Performces of he Publc No-lfe Isurce Compes Grph 3 Ivesme Icome ( Crores INR) 18 Ierol Jourl of Mgeme & Busess Sudes

3 ISSN : (Ole) ISSN : (Pr) IJMBS Vo l. 4, Is s u e 2, Ap r l - Ju e 2014 Grph 7 Combed Ro (All Publc No-lfe surce compes combed d) Grph 4 Operg Expeses ( Crore INR) Grph 5 Uderwrg Prof/Loss ( Crore INR) Grph 6 Prof Afer Tx ( Crores INR) The ol vesme come (4 publc o-lfe surers combed) showed drop he FY d FY d oher s ws rse. Grph 3) All four publc surers showed cosse growh vesme come excep FY d The operg expeses of ll compes re o rse excep fcl (Grph 4) All publc secor o-lfe surers were experecg loss scero ll he fcl s of he ls decde. As per he uderwrg erms, o-lfe surce busess s o profble oe for he Id publc o-lfe surers. The wors ffeced surer s New Id Assurce whose uderwrg loss rose bove 2000 Crore he FY d (Grph 5) If he vesme come s cosdered log wh premum come, ll lfe surers re closg wh profble book he -ed mos s. (Grph 6) Sudy o Uderwrg Cycle Per Performce of Publc Secor No-lfe Isurce Compes (Combed) As mfesed from he grph, we fd 3 complee cycles durg he ls decde o , o , o Durg ech cycle, here ws rse d subsequece fll. Aoher cycle s srg from d s showg fll. I ech cycle, he mrke ws more profble or sof (Less INR ws o be expeded o er INR 100 s premum) d becme more hrd (more INR ws o be expeded o er INR 100 s premum) d he ed of he cycle becme comprvely sof g. From cycle srg from FY owrds, he mrke s geg sofer. If we compre he resuls of he combed ro sudy wh he prof fer x combed performce of he publc o-lfe surce compes, we fd hgh degree of correlo. If we correle he combed ro d prof fer x durg he frs cycle o , we re fdg he vlue of correlo o be 0.97 (1.0 s he hghes vlue of correlo possble) sgfyg, boh he seres o be hghly correled. I he ex cycle lso ( o ), boh he vlues re comg o be 0.84 whch sgfes boh re hghly correled oo. I he ls cycle of o , he correlo vlue s comg o be 0.65 whch my be rbued o he presece of ouler (Loss fer x beg INR he fcl ) he dse. Hece, he uderwrg cycle per prese he seres coforms o he per show by he publc o-lfe surce compy performce prmeer Prof Afer Tx. The performces of he dvdul publc o-lfe surer were more or less coformy wh he combed performce of he o-lfe publc surers excep some sces. Sscl Alyss The sscl lyss hve bee mde o he performces of he o-lfe surce compes GIC, he 4 publc secor surce compes d he 9 prve secor surce compes. The regresso lyss hs bee performed o he followg prmeers Premum Icome (ll ees) Icurred Clms (ll ees) Combed Ro (ll ees) The regresso curves clude Ler model Qudrc model Cubc model We hve doe forecsg sudy o he bove ees usg he followg models Ler Tred Model Log Ler Tred Model Qudrc Tred Model Cubc Model Log Cubc Tred Model Log Ler (Hol) Expoel Smoohg Model Ierol Jourl of Mgeme & Busess Sudes 19

4 IJMBS Vo l. 4, Is s u e 2, Ap r l - Ju e 2014 ISSN : (Ole) ISSN : (Pr) ARIMA (1,1,1) Model Log Double (Brow) Expoel Smoohg Model Squre-Roo Ler Model Smple Expoel Smoohg Log Dmped Tred Expoel Smoohg Model Logrhmc Tred + Sesol Dummes Ler Tred + Sesol Dummes Double (Brow) Expoel Smoohg Tble 1: Alyss of Combed Isurce Secor D (Publc Secor Isurce Compes) Compy Performce Cubc Model Forecs Model wh R-squre d Adjused Crer (R-Squre Vlue) R-Squre Vlues Ne Ered Premum Cubc (0.995) Log Ler (Hol) Expoel Smoohg R-Squre Adjused R-Squre 0.98 Log Ler (Hol) Expoel Smoohg Publc No-lfe Icurred Clms Cubc (0.99) R-Squre Isurers (Combed) Adjused R-Squre 0.98 ARIMA (1,1,1) Combed Ro Cubc (0.56) R-Squre 0.3 Adjused R-Squre 0.3 Log Double (Brow) Expoel Smoohg Ne Ered Premum Cubc (0.992) R-Squre Adjused R-Squre 0.98 New Id Assurce Compy Nol Isurce Compy Orel Isurce Compy Ued Id Isurce Icurred Clms Cubc (0.99) Combed Ro Cubc (0.49) Ne Ered Premum Cubc (0.98) Icurred Clms Cubc (0.96) Combed Ro Cubc (0.66) Ne Ered Premum Cubc (0.99) Icurred Clms Cubc (0.98) Combed Ro Cubc (0.23) Ne Ered Premum Cubc (0.998) Icurred Clms Cubc (0.99) Combed Ro Cubc (0.5) Log Ler Tred R-Squre 0.99 Adjused R-Squre 0.98 ARIMA(1,1,1) R-Squre 0.49 Adjused R-Squre 0.47 Log Double (Brow) Expoel Smoohg R-Squre 0.97 Log Ler (Hol) Expoel Smoohg R-Squre 0.97 Adjused R-Squre 0.95 Smple Expoel Smoohg R-Squre 0.67 Adjused R-Squre 0.67 Log Dmped Expoel Smoohg R-Squre 0.99 Adjused R-Squre 0.98 Ler (Hol) Expoel Smoohg R-Squre 0.98 Adjused R-Squre 0.97 Logrhmc Tred + Sesol Dummes R-Squre 0.87 Adjused R-Squre 0.68 Log Ler (Hol) Expoel Smoohg R-Squre 0.98 Adjused R-Squre 0.98 Log Double (Brow) Expoel Smoohg R-Squre Adjused R-Squre Ler Tred + Sesol Dummes R-Squre 0.57 Adjused R-Squre Ierol Jourl of Mgeme & Busess Sudes

5 ISSN : (Ole) ISSN : (Pr) Tble 2: Forecs Vlues Combed Yer Premum ( Crore Clms ( INR) Crore INR) CR New Id Yer Premum ( Crore Clms ( INR) Crore INR) CR Seleced Grphs p u b o l p u b o l IJMBS Vo l. 4, Is s u e 2, Ap r l - Ju e 2014 Grph 10 Ler/Qudrc/Cubc Model Fg Combed Icurred Loss D Grph 11 Forecsg o Combed Icurred Clms D p u b o l Grph 12 - Ler/Qudrc/Cubc Model Fg Combed Ro D Grph 8 Ler/Qudrc/Cubc Model Fg Combed Ne Premum D Grph 13 - Forecsg o Combed Ro D Grph 9 Forecsg Combed Premum D Ierol Jourl of Mgeme & Busess Sudes 21

6 IJMBS Vo l. 4, Is s u e 2, Ap r l - Ju e 2014 ISSN : (Ole) ISSN : (Pr) e w d Grph 14 Ler/Qudrc/Cubc Model Fg New Id Ne Premum D e w d Grph 18 - Ler/Qudrc/Cubc Model Fg New Id Combed Ro D Grph 15 Forecsg New Id Ne Premum D Grph 19 - Forecsg o New Id Combed Ro D e w d Grph 16 Ler/Qudrc/Cubc Model Fg New Id Icurred Loss D Grph 17 Forecsg o New Id Icurred Clms D 22 Ierol Jourl of Mgeme & Busess Sudes IV. Cocluso I hs pper, exesve d sysemc sudy hs bee mde o he performce of he dffere publc o-lfe surce compes he ls decde. We hve red o forecs he combed performce of ll he four publc o-lfe surers d he New Id Assurce Compy dvdully. Mjor fdg s h he ol premum come of he publc surce compes my ouch lkh crores INR he comg s (roud ) whch wll be mjor boos for he secor. However, s per he uderwrg prof or loss s cocered, he overll performce s o good s he loss my rse fuure. Uderwrg cycle per of ech publc o-lfe surce compy hs bee suded usg he combed ro d emp hs bee mde o udersd he cycles prevle Id Nolfe surce mrke. I s foud h dvdul publc o-lfe surce compy performce erms of uderwrg cycle per lmos coforms o he overll performce of ll publc o-lfe surce compes ke ogeher. Ths pper s frs emp o such deep sudy o performce of publc secor o-lfe surce compes he ls decde. We hve mly cocered o ler, qudrc, cubc, expoel smoohg d ARIMA models for forecsg hs pper. There re furher scopes of usg more precse o-ler models whch my gve beer forecs. Refereces [1] Aquo, Joh G,"The Uderwrg Cycle: Mesureme & Alyss", Befeld Reserch Publco, [2] Che, R., Wog K. A., Lee, H.C.,"Uderwrg Cycles As", The Jourl of Rsk d Isurce, Vol. 66, No. 1, pp , 1999.

7 ISSN : (Ole) ISSN : (Pr) [3] Chdmbr, N.K., Pugel, Thoms A., Suders, A.,"A Ivesgo of he Performce of he U.S. Propery- Lbly Isurce Idusry", The Jourl of Rsk d Isurce, 1997, Vol. 64, No. 2, pp , [4] Cumms, J. Dvd, Ourevlle, J. Frcos, A Ierol Alyss of Uderwrg Cycles Propery-Lbly Isurce, The Jourl of Rsk d Isurce, Vol. 54, No. 2, (Jue, 1987), pp , [5] Cumms, J. Dvd, Dzo P. M., Cpl Flows d Uderwrg Cycles Lbly Isurce, Sprger Seres, Workers Compeso Isurce: Clm Coss, Prces d Regulo, Hueber Ierol Seres o Rsk, Isurce d Ecoomc Secury, Vol. 16, 1992, pp , [6] Meer, U.B., Ourevlle, J.F.,"Busess Cycles Isurce d Resurce: The cse of Frce", Germy d Swzerld, Jourl of Rsk Fce, Theory, Vol. 7 Issue 2, pp , [7] Nr, M,"Uderwrg Derffed Mrke", IRDA Jourl (Ocober Issue), [8] Nehus, G., Terry, A.,"Evdece o he Tme Seres Properes of Isurce Premums d Cuses of he Uderwrg Cycle: New Suppor for he Cpl Mrke Imperfeco Hypohess", The Jourl of Rsk d Isurce, Vol. 60, No. 3 (Sep., 1993), pp , [9] Pl, Subhbh, Mzumdr, Sh,"Modellg d Forecsg of he Prmeers Ifluecg he Uder-Wrg Cycle Id No-Lfe Isurce A Sscl Approch o GIC Experece", Id Jourl of Mgeme Scece, Volume 3, Issue 2, pp , [10] Pk, B. G,"Uderwrg Derffed Er", IRDA Jourl (Ocober Issue), [11] Rejd, George E.,"Socl Isurce d Ecoomc Secury", 6h ed. (Upper Sddle Rver, NJ: Prece Hll), [12] Rejd, George E,"Prcples of Rsk Mgeme d Isurce", 9h Edo, Perso Educo. [13] Ro, G. V.,"Preprg Uderwrers Derffed Evrome", IRDA Jourl (Ocober, 2008). [14] Tove, Oo, Ecoomes of Scle d Scope he Fsh No-lfe Isurce Idusry, Jourl of Bkg d Fce (Elsever), pp , (Jue 1997 Issue). Subhbh Pl s currely ched o Skkm Mpl Uversy Deprme of Mgeme d Commerce (DDE) Asss Professor role s djuc fculy bsed Bglore. He s lso workg s SAP Techcl Mger Mpl Globl Educo Servces, Bglore. Subhbh Pl receved hs M.Sc. degree Sscs from he Uversy of Clcu 2006 d MBA Rsk d Isurce from ISBMA, Pue He s o he verge of compleo of hs Ph.D. degree o-lfe surce from he Uversy of Clcu hrough submg fl hess Jue, He s lso Cerfed SAP ABAP Developme Cosul from SAP Ic., Germy. He hs roud 10 s of reserch experece he felds of rellfe d lyss o fcl, sock-mrke d bologcl/ grculurl d, sscl esmo, smulo, ol d gs rsk modellg, ole d moble lerg d formo IJMBS Vo l. 4, Is s u e 2, Ap r l - Ju e 2014 echology. He hs exesve experece Ole Educol Porl Promoo d Admsro, New Techology ves educo, Corpore Trg Mgeme Progrms, Projec Mgeme d SAP Newever Applcos Desg d Developme. He hs roud 28 reserch pper publcos ledg ol d erol refereed jourls d more h 10 bsrc publcos ledg erol coferece proceedgs brod. He lso possess 2 books publco o hs cred o Sscs d Projec Mgeme. Prof. (Dr.) Sh Mzumdr s ssoced wh he Deprme of Busess Mgeme he Uversy of Clcu, Wes Begl, Id. He ced s he De of Fculy Coucl for P.G. Sudes Commerce, Socl Welfre & Busess Mgeme,Uversy of Clcu durg December 2009 o December He dd hs BE Elecrocs d Telecommuco Egeerg from he Jdvpur Uversy, ME Compuer Scece d Egeerg from he Jdvpur Uversy, MBA Mrkeg Mgeme from Jdvpur Uversy d Ph.D. from he Uversy of Burdw uder self gudce. Prof. (Dr.) Sh Mzumdr ced s former HOD. Presely, He s he Coveer, Ph.D. Commee of Mgeme Deprme, Uversy of Clcu. He lso cs s Chr-perso of BBA(H) Bord of Sudes he Uversy of Clcu. He s co-ordor of DSA-I ( ) of UGC o Evromel Mgeme, Deprme of Busess Mgeme, Uversy of Clcu. He s lso cg s Exerl Exper of he Reserch Advsory Commee he Deprme of Busess Admsro, Burdw Uversy d Exerl Member P.G. Bord of Sudes Busess Admsro more h eleve o. of dffere Se d Cerl Uverses. He hs more h 32 publcos vrous ol d erol jourls (erol 16 ppers) of repue. He hs guded 7 Ph.D. scholrs who hd bee wrded Ph.D. degree d severl ohers re he ppele for wrdg Ph.D. degree. He hd ced s Chrperso, Keyoe Speker d Vledcory Speker ec. severl ol d erol cofereces. He hs bee recommeded for severl wrds cludg Top 100 Educors 2011 d 2000 Ousdg Ielleculs for he 21s Ceury 2011 by Ierol Bogrphcl Cere, Cmbrdge, UK d lso Bes Educos Awrd, 2013 by Ierol Isue of Educo d Mgeme. Hs res of reserch clude sof compug, crcl mrkeg, behvorl fce d HR mgeme. Ierol Jourl of Mgeme & Busess Sudes 23