COMPUTING VALUE CORRESPONDENCES FOR REPEATED GAMES WITH STATE VARIABLES

Transcription

1 CMPUTING VALUE CRRESPNDENCES FR REPEATED GAMES WITH STATE VARIABLES James Conklin Banco de España - Servicio de Estudios Documento de Trabajo nº 9622

2 CMPUTING VALUE CRRESPNDENCES FR REPEATED GAMES WITH STATE VARIABLES (*) James Conklin (*) This research was conducted while the author visited the Banco de España. Errors and omis sions are the author's own. Banco de España - Servicio de Estudios Documento de Trabajo n' 9622

3 In publishing this series the Banco de España seeks to disseminate studies of interest that will help acquaint readers better with the Spanish economy. The analyses, opinions and findings of these papers represent the views of their authors; they are not necessarily those of the Banco de España. ISSN: ISBN: ) Depósito legal: M Imprenta del Banco de España

4 Abstract The nature oc repeated interaction has been extensively studied in the repeated garne literature. Abreu (1988), Abreu, Pea.rce an,d Stacchetti (1986, 1990), and Cronshaw and Luenberger (1994) develop a recursive approa.ch to characterizing repeated games by focusing on the present values oí suhgame perfect strategies for each player, V. Judd and Conk1in (1995), Cronshaw and Rutherford (1994) and Cronshaw (1996) have implemented these techniques computationally. Sorne oí the most interesting examples oí strategic interaction, however, arise in environments with state variables in wruch the recursive techniques cited aboye cannot be employed. In such environments tbe set oí values oí suhgame perfect equilibrium becomes a function of the state variable-the object of inlerest becomes the value corresponden ce. This paper presents a general method for computing value corresponden ces under perfect monitoring and discounting. -3-

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6 1. Introduction The nature oí repeated interaction has been extensively studied in the repeated game literature. While the theory oí repeated games has produced important qualitative results, one weakness oí this theory is the lack oí quantitative applications. A second weakness is that this theory has yet to be broadly extended to environments with state variables. In an earlier paper we address the first weakness, presenting a method for computing the set oí subgame perfect equilibria in infinitely repeated games witb perfect monitoring. ur approach is recursive, lollowing the lead 01 Abreu (1988) and Abreu, Pearch and Staccbetti (1986, 1990), and Cronshaw and Luenberger (1994). Here, we extend that technique to games with state variables, restricting the state space to have finite elements. The recursive tbeory of supergames introduces the concept of self-generating sets of payoffs to characterize the set of equilibria. The numerical method discussed below revolves around efficient ways to approximate and construct these self-generating sets. As in Cronshaw and Luenberger (1994) and Judd and Conklin (1995), we allow public randomization. This is advantageous since the resulting elements oc the equilibrium value correspondence are convex, and a convex set can be represented by a simple function denoting the distance Croman interior point to each point on its boundary. We cboose a piecewise linear procedure to approximate these boundary functions. This method is of interest since it generates a "lower bound" to the true solution and is computationally cheap to evaluate and recomputeo We iilustrate the method with an example: computing subgame perfect equilibria Cor government fiscal poliey in a primitive society. This example needs moderate computer power. We give running times -on Pentiumbased personal computers. Furthermore, we used standard, freely available software. Al! the prograros were written in FRTRAN, but could be implemented in any programming language, such as BASIC or Matlab. Section 2 covers notatiofl. Section 3 discusses the methods for approximating convex sets and describes the basic algorithm. Section 4 applies the algorithm to the two examples, and Section 5 concludes. 2. Supergames and Characterization of Equilibrium Payoffs We examine an N-player infinitely repeated game with state variables. A;, i = 1,, N, will denote the action space of player i in the stage game. X = U = {Xk} will denote the state space of K finite elements. We will call elements of A == Al X A2 X... X AN action profiles. Player i's payoff in the stage game will be II : A X X -t R. Abusing notation in the standard way, we define a_i = (aj,,gi_1!ai+1,,an) and Jet (1 ) -5-

7 denote the best response payoff for piayer i given the actions a_i by his opponents and the state x. Considering that for each value of x we can define a one+period garne, we rnake the following assurnptions: Assumption 1: Ai, i = 1,, N, is a compact subset of Rm for sorne m. Assumption 2: II (,x), i = l,...,n, is continuous. Assumption 3: The stage game has a pure strategy Nash equilibrium for x 1,...,K. xk,k _ Assumption 4: The value correspondence is non-empty for a1l values of x E X. Assumptions 1 and 2 are trivially satisfied by finite-play games. Assumptions 3 and 4 are satisfied by many interesting games, and are essential. Mixed strategy equilibria could be included if actions consisted of publicly observed randomization over pure strategy actions. Prom the stage game, we can construct the corresponding supergame. The action space in the supergame is Aoo == x la. We assume that player i aims to maximize his average discounted payoff, which equals 1 - ó ó 00 L 6 t Ili(at, xt) t=1 where aj is the action profile taken in period t. A history, y t, is defined as the sequence {a"x,} =o. By the continuity of ni and compactness of A;, (2) li;(x) ni(x) min n (a,x).ea ma.>< li;(a,x).ea are both finite. Therefore, for any given value of the state, the supergame payoffs are contained in the compact set W(x) = X"II.!!i(X), li;(x)]. (5) A strategy for player i is. a mapping from the history of the game in time t ioto piayer i's action space Cor each time t: Ui : A! x XL _ A, t :;: 0,1,2,... A strategy profile is the set strategies oc all piayers: u = UieN 17;. For each subgame perfect strategy profile 17, we define its value to player i to he (3) (4) Vi(XI,U) = - ó ó 'lii(a"x,lu). t=1 (6) -6-

8 It fohows that for each state there is a value set, representing the values that arise for all players across ah strategies: V(x)= U v(x,<1),xex. (7) SPE Finally, we define the value corrspondence to be ur objective is to compute the value correspondence V(X). The perspective implicit in the notation aboye does not provide us with a numerically tractable way of viewing the supergame since it focusses on infinite sequences of actions. While such descriptions are useful theotetically and descriptively, they are not useful when it comes to computation since infinite sequences are costly, if at all possible, to represent in a computer. Furthermore, examining the set of possible strategies and checking for subgame perfection is also difficult if one takes an infinite sequence approach. Naturally, we take a dynamic prograrnming approach to the problem, compressing the information in the game's histories into continuation values and extend the approach to garues with state variables. This "dynamic progarnming approach" to supergames with state variables can be expressed through a map, B. Let W(x) be a ca.ndidate for V(x) for each state x. Then the set of possible payoffs today are those consistent with N.ash play today with continuation values in W(x'), a.nd are defined by the map (8) B(W)(x)= U {(i-ó)li(a,x)+ów(x')} (a,w(x'))ea xco(w(x')) (9) subject to: X'= h(a,x) (!) i = h(ii;,a_;,x) (11) (1 -ó)li;( a, x) + ów;(x') m.ax{ (1 - ó)li;( ii;, a_;, x) + óll!;(i), \li E N). (12) '; h( a, x) is tbe Iaw oc motion of tbe state variable. Intuitively, a value b(x) is in B(W)(x) ic tbere is sorne action profile, a, and continuation payoff, W(X') E W(x'), such that b(x) is the value oc playing a today and receiving the continuation value w(x') tomorrow, a.nd, for each i, player i will cboose to play a because he believes tbat to do otherwise will yield him the worst possible continuation payoff. The right ha.nd side oc equation 12 represents tbe value oc decection from the prescribed equilibriurn. For player i playing a implies that the state tomorrow will be x' = h(a,x). However if player i defects a.nd takes action a, the economy will Dot be in state x' tomorrow but state x = h(ai,a_i,x). Hence when computing the value oc defection, the punishment value must be drawn Crom the set W(x )

9 Proposition: V(X) = B W(X) il W(X) 2 V(X). proof: The numerical algorithm"described in section 3 provides a constructive prool While this characterization oí V(X) is elegant and intuitive, there are important difficulties associated with computing t. The maio problem is that V(X) can be ad ugly correspondence, difficult to represent in a computer. To deal with these problems, we alter the supergarne by including public randomization. Intuitively, we assume that a.t the end oí each stage game, a lottery is used to determine how the game continues. Formally, strategies will now map histories of players' a.ctions, the history oí the realizations oí tbe lottery and the current lottery outcome, ioto current actions. Realized stage-game payoffs will differ from expected stage-game payoffs in strategies where non-trivial (non-degenerate) lotteries are employed. perationally, we imagine the Collowing scenario. AH the players know that tomorrow's continuation value líes in co(w(x')). However, they don't know what that continuatíon value will be until after a publicly observed random valuable is revealed, whích will signal tomorrow's w(x') E W(x'). ThereCore, Crom today's perspective, we can ex ante construct a continuation value in co(w). While the main motivation Cor adding lotteries is to make the computation easier, it does generalize the notion oc subgame percect Nash equilibrium in an appropriate and interesting Cashion. Since one aim oc this research is to see what is possible in the absence oc contracting, it is natural to add this public randomizing device. The addition oc lotteries will possibly be inessential. In particular, ic V(X) without lotteries is convex, then adding lotteries will not expand V(X) and our algorithm wiu compute V(X). ne couid also further generalize the anaiysis to correlated equilibria. However, that would admit private information and assume sorne coordinating agent, unappealing assumptions in many contexts. 3. Computing the Equilibrium Value Correspondence Choosing.n initia! set W(X) 2 V(X), the sequence 01 sets {W'(X)}f:o, where W'+I(x) = B(Wk)(x), converges to V(x) Cor each x E X. Direct application of this technique, however, poses two computational obstacles. The first is that Cor many supergames, equilibrium value correspondence V(X) is infinite and therecore impossible to represent on a computer. We treat this problem by exploiting the convexity of W(X) and B(W)(X): any ray originating from any'interior point of a convex set intersects the boundary of that set only once. A convex set can be represented by its boundary, a fact we will exploit. By virtue oc its "star-shapeness", a convex sets comprising the value correpondence can be represented in a particularly simple fashion; we discuss the details of this in section 2.1. The second computational obstacle we confront is that even if we can represent W(X) finitely, generating B(W)(X) can involve exhaustive pairing of actions with all possible value pairs, (Wi(X'),!Qo(x')) to derive incentive compatible actions and rewards. This technique is -8-

10 too crude for anything but tbe smallest problems. As an illustration, consider constructing B(W)(X) from W(X) in direct fasbion: for a given state today, x, and the state tbat will arise tomorrow, x' = h(a,x), applying tbe definition of B(W)(x) for each player, you pair an action ai with two continuation values (Wi(X'),y!.{r(a, x» ) E Wi(x') x Wi(.i(ai,a_i,x)). 1f.(w,(x'),!Q;(x(a;,x))) s.tis6es incentive compatibility, (1 - ó)il,(a,x) + ów,(x') ;:: (1 - ó)il;( a_i, x) + ó",,(x(a;, x)), then we koow the oew poiot b,(a, x, w,(x')) = (1 - ó)il,(a, x) + áw;(x') will lie in B(W)(x). Doing this exhaustively, for every possible combination of action profile and promisc threat pair, will generate the correspondence B(W)(X). Exhaustive pairing is clearly impracticaj for most games. We avoid it by directly approximating the boundary of B(W), ignoring interior points. We describe this method in section 2.1. Section 2.2 covers more specific details of the algorithm's implementation. 3.1 Piecewise Linear Approximations of Convex Sets Since tbe sets the comprise the elements of tbe value correpondeoce are convex, we need efficient ways to approximate'convex sets in the computer. Also, for tbeoretical reasans apparent below, we wil1 want to use approximations which allow us to have useful and relatively precise inforrnation about the approximation error. For these rcasans we will use piecewise linear approximations. Sinee we will only develop a twa--player implementation of our methods, our discussion will focus on approximating twa--dimensional convex sets, such as those in Figure Value Set Iteration for Convex Sets To do this, we exploit the sl.r-sh.peness of.e.eh 01 the sel B(W)(x,), k = 1,2,... K.nd Ihe assumption that there exists sorne point vn a (x,\:) for every state which is the equilibrium value of at least one subgame perfeet equilibrium whose path passes through tbat state. Refer to Figure 1, where vna(x,l;) is in W(X,l;) and B(W)(x,l;). Any ray originating from vna(x,\:) intersects the boundary oí the set 8B(W)(x,\:) only once. Henee, we can deter mine the boundary at a given direction 9 E [0,211"] by extending a ray from the set center vna(x,\:). Let a be the length oí the ray and let w(a,9,x,\:) be the poiot at the "tip" of the rayo We want to increase a until w(a,e,x,l;) is no longer in B(W)(x,\:). To determine if w(a, 9, x,\:) E B(W)(x,\:), we check two conditions. First, tbere must be both an action profile and a eontinuation value promise and threat, (a, w(x,\:), Yl(ai, a_j, x (a;, a_j" x,\:»), tbat sup port w( a, 9). Second, the supporting triple (a, w(x,\:),.w.( ai, a_i, XI( ai, a_j,,x,\:) must satisfy incentive compatibility. Maximizing a at each 9 E [0,211"], subject to these two constraints, -9-

11 Figure 1: Star-shapeness oc B(W) - 10-

12 defines a periodic function representing 8B(W)(xlo): ) (") In Equation (9), the point tii( a,, XI:) is written as VNc(xk)+av( ), where v( ) = (cos, sin ). In order for VNc(Xk) + av() to be in B(W)(Xk), this point must be generated by a triple (a, W(xk),1Q(a, a_i, x/(ai, a_i" XIo» where vnc(xlo) + av(8) = (1-ó)IT(a, Xk) + ów(x'), for sorne w(x') E W(x'). This irnplies that [(vn (x.) +,, (e) -(1 -S)TI(a,x.)JlS = w(x'). Imposing w(x') E W(x'),x' = h(a,xlo) yields condition i. in the equation. If we define a grid of M angles, e [0, 211"J, this representation reduces the problem of finding the boundary 8B(W)(Xk) in every direction 8 for each state k E {1,..., K} to M x K constrained maximization problems, a task that can be handled by conventional software and hardware. We compute the total approximation of the boundary function R( 8) by first convexifying the vertices defined by the R(9m) and computing the appropriate coefficients for the linear approximation between vertices. Figure 2 illustrates the method applied with an angular grid. Starting at the "center" VN"(Xk), we select an angle 9m E 0. At that angle, we extend a ray to the boundary of B(W)(xlo) by maximizing 0'. At that maximized 0''", tii(a'",m, Xk) is the interpolant vertex for the piecewise linear approximation of B(W)(xlo). Note that our constraints appear in the set W(x'). For this examplc, the binding constraint on maximizing a is that we hit aw(x/) - W(x') will afford us no more extravagant promises than w(x'). Direct application of this technique, however I poses two computational obstacles. The first is that for many supergames, equilibrium value sets V(x) are infinite and therefore impossible to represent on a computer. We treat this problem by invoking lotteries to render W(x) and B(W)(x) convexo Any ray originating from any interior point of a convex set intersects the boundary of that set only once. By virtue of this quality, "star-shapeness", a convex set can be represented by its bounda.ry, hence, in finite fashion. The second computational obstacle we confront is that even representing W(x) finitely, generating B(W)(x) can involve exha.ustive pairing of actions with value pairs, (wi(x),.lq (i)). This technique is too crude for anything but the smallest problems. As an illustration, consider constructing B(W)(x) from W(x) in direct fashion: applying the definition of B(W), you pair an action profile with a continuation value: (a,w(x') E A x W(X'). If (a,w(x')) satisfies equations 20-23, then we know the new point w(a, W(X/), x) = (1-ó)Il(a, x) +ÓW(X') will lie in B(W)(X'), Xl = h(a,x). Doing this exhaustively, for every possible action profile and promise pair, will generate the correspondence B(W)(x). Exhaustive pairing is c1early impractical for most -11-

13 games. We avoid it by using a piecewise linear approximation of the boundary of B(W)(x), ignoring interior points, and directly approximating the boundary of B(W)(x) from the boundary of W (x). 0.1 Speciflcs of Value Set Iteration for the 2-player Case. At this point, we shall discuss the steps in detail for the special case where N = 2, Al> the action-space of player 1, is finite with J elements, and A2 is finite with L elements, and the state space has K elements. Starting with an initial W(X) that we are sure contains the equilibrium value correspondence V(X), we apply the operator B(o) to W until 11 B(W) - W II"N.S é, where é is the convergence criterion and 11 II"N. is the root sum of squared differences oc o at each (Jm between iterations. We summarize the principal steps for the operator B( ) witb the following scheme: o: Initialize 0.1: Select vna E V(x) for x E X. 0.2: Set angle grid e = {thet."...,m} [0,2 ] 0.3: Seleet initia] R()(x) lengths for eaeh o E e, thereby eonstructing a W(x) 2 V(x) for x E X. 1: For each Xk E X do 2: For each (Jm E e do 2.1: For each action profile (aj,al) E A do o(aj, a,) = max a s.t. (i) 6-1[(VN(X.) + av(m)) - (1-6)n(.j,.,x.))] E W(x'(aj, a" Xk)) (ii) (1-6)n(.,.,x.) + 6w(x') (1-6)W(._;.x.)+ ów(i(aj, ah Xk)) (iii) a where o(aj, al, Xk) = is understood if the constraint set is empty. 2.2: o ((Jm,Xk) = max(o(at.a,xk),o(alla2,xk),...,o(aj,al)); 2.3: w(a (m.x,).m,x') = vn (x.) + a (m.x.)v(m); 3: Determine those elements oc the set UmEMW( ((Jm,Xk),m,Xk) which lie in W, the boundary oí the set 's oonvex hu11; 4: Compute piecewise linear approximation oc the boundary oc B(W)(Xk); specificaliy, compute the convex hull oc the points from (2). -12-

14 5, Sel W(X) = B(W)(X). Slop if W has changed little; else go lo 1. Step 1 in the scheme specifies that the a.jgorithm "loop" through each angle 8"" m =... M. We maximize ' in at each angle, subject to the constraints that appear in Equation (10). These constra.ints are functioos oc action profiles, and sorne profiles will be more constraining than albers. We loop through all action profiles in step 1. ti to find tbe a.ction profile tbat yields the maximal a. In step 1.1, 8m and (aj,a ) are fixed, meaning that for each iteration on W, we maximize a M x J x L x K times. Note that in 1.1, there is the numerical subproblem oí deciding if a paiot is in W(Xk). These points show that the heart oí the algorithm is a constrained maximization problem. To understand this constrained maximization problem, we study how large a can be before hitting one of the two constraints. With reference to Figure 3, consider constraint l.). This constraint didates that tombrrow's value promise, w(x'), used to support today's value, w(x"a,m) = vn,(x,) + av(óm) = (1-6)II(a"a"x,) + 6w(x'), musl be in W(x'). Moreover, we can break w(x') down into two components, one that varies with 0', and one that is fixed: vn,(x,) ( ') _ - (1-6)II(a"a"x,) " (ió ) w x - + fj V ( Vm ) _ = Va ( Xk ) + fj V Vm (14) fj This decomposition appears in Figure A3. We increase a so that w(a, x') = Va(Xk) + lv(m) approaches tbe boundary of W(x') along tbe angle (Jm' When w(a,x') strikes the boundary, this quantity as ir. Now consider constraint i.), the incentive compatibility (le) condition. We can rearrange this constraint as the inequality w;(x') 6-'[(1-6)(II;(a"a" x,) - 1I;(a_;,x,)) - 6m(x')], i = 1,2. (15) Examine Figure A3. Since these constraints are not a function of a, they are vertical for player 1, borizontal for player 2, and shift as a function of the action profije a. They appear as el a.nd el in Figure A3. The le constraints are binding if a given player's value promise, w;(o', x') = V;, a(xk)+ Vi, is equal to tbe le constraint. In Figure A3, tbis is shown happening for player 1 at o' = ó. Therefore, at the angle 8m and the action profije (aj, al), Ó is the constrained maximum for step 1.1; tbe le constraint for player 2 and tbe constraint w E W are not binding. Tbe maximization problem oí step 1.1 boils down to solving a Cew linear equations that identify tbe intersedions oc the ray at angle 8m originating at Va, witb tbe two le constraints and the boundary oc W. We do, tbe maximization in step 1.1 for ali possible action profiles. Different action profijes impjy different constrained maxima for a. This is shown in Figure A4. In tbat figure, we show bow botb Va and the le constraints shict as a function oc Q. eonsider the action profile I ne might exploit game structure to economize on this search I as one would have to if A were continuou$

15 B{W) w(,, e..l =- 11"'+ ( if =(I-rlTr/a)< (J... I I,W!.!l, ==-- Figure 2: Extending the ray v + ov at the boundary oí B(W) -14-

16 v.. B{'N) '1f. - 1r""_(J-f)1r/G). - Ó ;,-.. Figure 3: Extending the ray at angle () with the a.ction profile fixed

17 B(V. ) j "...".... +«,IV" --- "V...tI %,.;r 'Y"'" t<'jv ir"" 'v.:(j).... '1,r"(3)) (r) Figure 4: Ray extension from varjous action profiles -16-

18 a(l): it shifts Va(t ) to the upper Ieft of v N a. As we inerease a at angie 8m, we find that we encounter piayer l's re constraint first, it(a(l». Hence, a.ction profile a(l) produces a maximai a of length al' Moving on to a.ction profile a(2), Va(2) shifts directly below v N a. The le constraints for this action profile are non.binding, therefore we hit the constraint Va(2) + 'v(8m) = w(a) E W first. This determines that the maximal a for a(2) is 0'2' For action profile a(3) we hit piayer 2's le eonstraint first (the le constraint for piayer 1 is not depicted) giving us a muimal a which we denote 0'3' Aetion profiles do not always generate a point Va which lies in W. We show this with action profile a(4). As we extend a, the point w(a) enters the set W. Hence, it is possible that although a = is not in the constraint set, there are larger values of a that do fall in the constraint seto With 8m remaining fixed, after having looped through each action profile we determine the largest value o( aj, ak) and set it equal to o (step 1.2). We determine the extremal elements of B(W) at each angle m in cartesian coordinates, w(a"(m),m) = v: + o v(8m) (step 1.3). We then convexify this set of extremal points and then fit an approximation of R() (steps 2 and 3). 4. An Example: Credible Fiscal Policy in a Primitive Society. In this example a government must finance a varying but periodic series of (exogenous) expenditures, either through varying the taxes paid by its constituents, or through financing fluctuations in expenditures with the help of a lendee. Government's objective is to maximize the welfare of its constituents. Included in the specification of the government's action space is a budget constraint. If an action violates tbe budget constraint, it is rendered unavailable. Tbougb the government's source of revenue is a tu 00 the productioo of bouseholds, it ca.nnot directly choose allocations of consumption and leisure on behalf of the households. Naturally, these allocations are ehosen by the households themselves, in light of the tax rateo Taxes are distorting and therefore decrease households' welfare beyond losses that would arise tbrougb lump sum taxation. Due to its restriction to a distorting instrument of taxation, the government prefers to smootb taxes, since tbis maximizes household welfare subject to the government financing its expenditures. Tbe lender is risk neutral. He lends to the govemment out of an endowment he receives each period, w. His payoff, de, is the sum of the endowment he receives each period less tbe net transfer made to the government. ne can interpret the lender as a banking house or cartel of banks, assuming also that the coalition is rohust to defection by tbe individual players tbat comprise it. The fiscal problem faced by tbe government reduces to a two..player ga.me between tbe government and its lender. The government is tempted to default on tbe lender once it has debt outstanding the lender protects birnself from such opportunism with the threat of witbdrawing lending services indefinitely in the future sbould tbe government defa.uit

19 Literature 00 sovereign leoding 2 has shown that, perhaps surprisingly, this threat is not sufficient to support lending in all environments. That is, the Folk Theorem does not hold for a11 games of sovereign lending. The key to such "no lending results" is whether the government has access to an alternative channel for smoothing taxes: if the government does not have access to a storage technology, bankers effectively have a sanction technology. They can deny the government the means by which to smooth taxes in the face of fluctuating expenditures. If the government does have access to a storage technology (e.g., or a statecontingent form of savings deposity in an environment of udcertainty), it can self-smooth, and will always be better off not paying lenders, and using the proceeds of default to build a tax-smootbing fundo As an illustration of the algorithm, we replicate these well-known results in the economy described aboye. 4.1 Program 1: the government cannot save The bargaining session works as. íollows: a11 lending matures in one periodo Lending oí tonger maturity must be arranged by successively "rolling over" principal. The government begins by stating how much interest and principal from last period's loaos it will pay back, RIB,_I, where Rt is the gross factor oí return (one plus the interest rate). Simultaneously, the government states how much fresh credit it wants, Bt. Next, the ooalition oí lenders state how much they are willing to lend, E,. New credit extended is Bt = min(bt. B t), and the net transíer of funds in the period is (B,- RtBt_d.l This specification reduces to an arrangement where the government and its lender bargain over net flows: let T, = (B, - R,B,_,) and f, = (B, - R,B,_,). Then T, = sign( f,) min(l f,, If,1) il f, and f, are the same sign, T, = ií T, and T, are of opposite signo The repeated game has a state variable, the leve! of government expenditure. For a given profile oí actions, players' current and expected future payoffs differ according to the value oí the state variable. The discounted present value of a strategy will aloo depend upon the current value of the state. Hence, the discounted value of an equilibrium is actually a set of values, indexed by the states tbat occur ajoog the path arising in that equilibrium. The set of equilibrium values is comprised oí many sets, one associated with each state of the world. Because the game is recursive, given the state of the world, the set of equilibrium values that can be achieved does not depend on time. Formally, the lender's problem is 'Bulow and Rogoff (198980, 1989b); Chari and Kehoe (199380, 1993b). stec:hnically, the timing scheme amounts to a device of exp08ition: the solution algorithm used to compute eq,uilibruim utilizes tbe stage game in its normal form, which is equivalent to a version of tbe game wbere neitber player observes tbe otber's action at tbe time be cbooses. We do not adopt a Rubenstein bargaining set-up for negotiations, common in other of tbe debt literature. -18-

20 V(9o) = m.!'x {Te} (16) subject t: (17) if if (1-8) ::8'd, V(9.) 1=6 1'1 and TI are oc the sa.me sign T and Tt are oí the opposite signo (18) (19) In the problem fj is the discount factor1 (I-b") is a normalization factor that scales the discounted present value of utility.to the range oí single period utility values. Equation 3 is the bargaining rule.on nel transfers between government and hanker explained aboye. Equation 4 imposes subgame perfect behavior on the lender. The economy is inhabiled by a number oí identical households that produce the single consumption good by supplying labor. They have access lo a production technology, f(nd, that allows thero to convert labor. ni, ioto the consumption good. This fundian is increasing in its first derivative and concave. Households optimize over an infinite horizon, {) is the discount factor, and preferences are definoo over consumption and leisure, U(er. lt). The households' basic choice is how much to work versus how much to eat. The formal problem is max {CI'/'} (J -8) ::8'U(c"I,) t: (20) subject to: c, $ (1 - r,)! (n,) It 1 - nt. (21 ) (22) The family is a "tax taker", that is, it accepts the tax levy Tt as giveo each periodo The family does oot save because it is denied means to do so. Assume that production technology and preferences are 5uch that the revenue maximizing tax rate, T-, always yields' revenues sufficient to cover government expenditure: gt T f(nt(t")). Households do oot behave strategically. They go through life equating marginals in their repeated, static problem. The government sol ves the problem (! -8) ::8'U(c"I,) (23) t= -19-

21 subject to: U,( c" 1,)fU, (e" 1,) = (1 - T,)f'( n,) C, = (1 - T,)f(n,) (24) (25) (26) ir ir Tt and Tt are oc the same sign Tt and Tt are oc tbe opposite signo (27) (1 -ó) L ó' U(c" 1,)? W(y.) t=. (28) Equation 8 is tbe government's objective Cunction, equal to the discouted present value oc the weighted utility oc its subjects. Ut(Ch lt) >, U2(Ch lt) > and U(Ct, lt) is concave. Equation 9 is the government budget constraint. Domestic spending, 9t, must equal the net current flow oc Cunds Crom the lenders plus total revenue taxes. Equations 10 and 11 are the households' incentive compatibility constraints. Tbey determine how government taxes affect consumption and labor supply. Equations 2, 9 and 11 yield the aggregate resource equilibrium condition Ct +dt +9t :;;; f(nt)+w. Equation 12 is the outcome rule for bargaining over tbe net flow of funds between the lender and the borrower. Equation 13 imposes subgame percection on the government. Solutions to Program 1 show that in punishment phases oc p'aths arising in subgame per Cect equilibria, tbe government must move taxes up and down with fluctuating expenditure. In high welfare equilibria, the government borrows and repays to allow smoothing of taxes. Tbese results are graphed and discussed in greater detail in Section Program 2: the government can save In this program, the government has a.ccess to a storage technology. This makes the lender's penalty oc cutting off future credit much less severe. The government can smooth without creditors, but it must save in advance. The government now sol ves the problem W(Yo, Ao) = ",ax {... T.,A.+I} 00 (l-ó) ;ó'u(c" I,) t= (8) subject to: (14) -20-

22 U,(c"I,)/U,(c" 1,) = (1- T,)f'(n,) e, = (1 - T,)f(n,) ( 10) (11 ) if if TI and T, are of the same sigo TI and Tt are oí the opposite signo (12) 00 (l-ó)ló'u(c" I,)::> W(g"A,) f=. ( 13) Households' and the lender's problems are unchanged from Program lo Granting the government a storage technology causes lending to break clown. This is because in the first period the government owes the lender a. repayment it can instead save the resources that were to be used to repay. In the next period the government has need of resources in arder to smooth taxes, it draws clown ts savings. The lender, in anticipation of this, never ends. These results are sensitive to tbe assumptions: T " f(c(t") ) ;::: 91 is critical It is also important that the sequence {gtl is known with certainty. If {gr} o was stochastic, a. no-lending result would depend the on distribution and support of gl' With a storage technology and no lending the government is worse off at the best equilibria oí Program 2 than it would be at the best equilibria oí Program 1: in those states oí the world where the government has low savings and high expenditures, it must raise taxes and deíer a plan oí smooth taxes until the next period oc low government expenditure. If it could borrow, it could begin smoothing right away. These findings are sensitive to the efficiency oc the government 's storage technology. [f it can save and earn interest equal to or greater than the lender's discount rate, there will be no lending whatsoever. As interest earned by the government approaches zero, or becomes negative, small amounts oc debt can be supported. As the storage technology becomes less efficient, lending nears levels for Program 1. This confirms results of ehari.nd Kehoe (1993b).nd Bulow and Rogoff (1989.) in tbis environment. 4.3 Computational results For the computation oc all programs, we assume the Collowing íunctional forms: ( 15)

23 f(n,) = n,'. ( 16) The period ayer which the experiments will be run will be about three or four years. We choose this period length because we are modeling expenditure fluctuations and this seerns a reasonable duration to posit for a typical cause oí expenditure fluctuation, war. Therefore 6 = 0.9 ror most experiments Computations for Program 1 To run the first computation we set 0") = 0.6, 0"2 = 0.2. While these elasticities are oot particularly "realistic", Cor the additive separable specification oí utility and the households' environment it yields negative labor supply response to the tax rateo (For lag preferentes,.e. 0'"1 = (72 = 1, labor supply is inelastic; Cor 0"1 > 1 and 0'2 > 1, labor supply rises in response to higher taxes.) The production parameter "1 is set at The process for exogenous government expenditure is of period two: one period of high expenditure, one oc. low (four years of wa.r, four years of pea.ce). {gl} o = {, 0.24,, 0.24,... }. The endowment for the lender, w = The lender is always capable of funding the government's full need for finance. Utility functions were scaled up or down by affine transformation so that payofrs lie in the interval [, IJ. Calling the government player 1, the lender player 2, and their respective payoffs IT1(a) and Ih(a), we have and 11,(a) =, + 6U(c" 1,) 11,(a) = (, + (,d,. The values = (-26,15.5) and ( = (0,20.8) map government and lender payoffs into, 10J x, IJ. Finally, we, discretize both action and state spaces oí tbe government and bankers. Discretization is not necessary for varia.bles ct, and lt, for they are determined as a result of the government 's choice of T and can be solved exactly without increasing computational complexity. For the government 's actions, TI E {., 0.2, 0.46, 0.715}; r, = lj,-r,b,_, e {-0.24, -0.18, -0.12, -0.06, 0.0, 0.06, 0.12, 0.18, 0.24}. For the lender's a.ction:. r, = lj,-r,b,_, e {-0.24, -0.18, -0.12, -0.06, 0.0, 0.06, 0.12, 0.18, 0.24}. Negative transfers go from government to lender; positive transfers go írom lender to governmento We have chosen the grids on gt, Tt and TI so that the accounting oí the government's -22-

24 r , i = o.. Q o '" 5.6 o::.e Payoff tar Player L------:o------: o : Payoff tar Player 1 Figure 1: Value sets, Program 1 budget eaves only small amounts oí taxed resources unauocated. However, the government still has the choice to give these inter grid rounding errcrs back lo consumers lump sum, or lo give thero to the lender, as a small adjustment to the bargained transfer in the lender's favor. The value sets for Program 1 are shown in Figure 1 for tbe two values oc the state variable 9c. The axes oc tbe graphs represent the average oc the present discounted values each pi ayer receives ftom playing a subgame perfect equilibrium. The value sel corresponding to peace (9t = ) appears on the left, war (ge =.24) on the right. There are many possible equilibria, and by extension, many equilibrium values in each state of the world. The punishment values on the southwest border of the value sets arise in two types of equilibria: the first are autarkic-the government.never borrows, and the lenders never lend. The second are "carrot and stick" punishments-in these equilibria, it is not best to play non.cooperatively, but rather to go along with your own punisbment. In such equilibria, the player that is known as the deviator deliberately chooses an action that results in a low one-shot payoff

25 f course the inducement is that the continuation promise associated with going along with one's punishment is high. As a con.sequence, carrot and stick paths can generate severe punishment5, yet they still allow piayers to emerge from punishment, or non-cooperative play. It is possible to generate outcome allocations along he paths that alise in equilibrlum from V(x) using optimal penal codes, in the language oc Abreu (1988). The evolution oc the value of playing a particular equilibrium is shown in Figure 5. The value of the outcome path i. marked by circl.. (o) in the otate g, = and by staro ( ) in the state g, =.24. Firstly note that the value of playing a given equilibri can move all over the ' value sets. Play originates in g, =, at the point (5.2, 5.4). Since gt =.24 in tbe subsequent perlod,.kip over to the right hand value set: the star al (4.4, 5.44) i. the value oc Ihe equilibrium in the second period. The value of play evolves rising to nearly the top of the value sets, altemating from one set to the other. Then, play moves the position of continuation values down, in southeast directioo, along the Pareto frootier. The Cour ploto in Figure graph the on... shot payoffs Cor each player through time on the top row (the govermnent 00 the left, the lender on the right), the evolution of value on the bottom row. In periods 1-11, perlod payoft'a for tbe govemmeot are volatile, reftecting the fact that it is in punishment phase4 and that it ia not being allowed to smooth by tbe tender. Tbe government also mues small tranafers to tbe tender out of revenues not allocated to 9,. Trua is part of "going along with its own punishment." In perlod 10 the government begins lo mue larger IransCers lo the lender during periods oc peace (declining peaks in Ihe Iop left plot). With that show oc "good faith", the lender slarts lending lo Ihe governmenl. Govemment ta.xes, and perlod-payoft's are tben smooth for tbe remainder of play. The lender now aborbs the volatility of the sequence g, through financial flows. The four plots in Figure 3 graph the underlying economic allocations through time. Note thal tbis path i. only one arnong literally infinile palhs lhal arise in equilbrium. We were able to see allocations during a punishment because we chose to start the path at a punishment value. Paths moving along the northeast frontiers of the equilibrlum value sets always uve the govemment smootbing taxes Computations for Program 2 In Program 2, the government has the capacity to save. As with Program 1, parameters are set as al = 0.6, 002 = 0.2, and - = The process for exogenous government expenditure remains {gt}:'o = {, 0.24,, 0.24,... }, and tbe endowment for tbe lender w = The values e (-26,15.5) and ( (0, 20.8). nce on a cooperative path, punishments do not arise in equilibrium as can happen in a game with impercect incormation. However by initiating tbe. game at a punisbment value, we are able to trace out punisbment patbs tbat would otherwise líe "off path. n -24-

26 i 4 rt. 2 w.; Q. ii: Periodo Periodo Q. 4 :> 2.; f :> Periodo Periodo 40 Figure 6: Evolution of Value, Payoff's ayer time, Program 1-25-

27 "l;:0.4 o Ir Periad: Periad: jj = Period: 0.8 ;:. "R:.6 <il.8 0.4!I Periad: Figure 7; Evolution oí allocations over time, Program

28 For the government's action space, T is discretized as T. E {., 0.2, 0.46, 0.715}. The gross rate of interest for the government, R, is constant at 1/6 or The government's assets lie in the grid A. E {., 0.06, 0.12}. The government 's bargaining position for transfers Hes in T. = B.-R.BI-l E {-0.24, -0.18, -0.12, -0.06, 0.0, 0.06, 0.12, 0.18, 0.24}. The lender's transfer offers lie in t. = B. -R.BI-l E {-0.24, -0.18, -0.12, , 0.06, 0.12, 0.18, 0.24}. There are six possible states in the garne, one for eac combination of gt and At. The value sets for Program 2 are shown in Figure 8.. The only four states are shown, (g" A.) = {(,), (0,0.12), (.24,0), (.24,.12)}. The value set in e&eh st.te has collapsed to a single point. Ts is because lending breaks down, and there is a unique equilibrium action (and hence a unique subsequent path oí play and a unique value) in each state. The lenders never lend, and the government smooths using its own assets. The path shown is marked by a + and a x: in state 1 (gt =. At = ), the government saves In state 6 (gt =.24, At =.12), it raises revenues oí.12, draws down savings, and gives interest back to the households as a lump-sum payrnent. The penod payoffs and evolution oí values through time are shown in Figure, and Figures 10and l1show the economy's allocations through time. 5. Conc1usion In this paper we have described and implemented a computer algorthm to solve discounted sugergarnes with perfect monitoring and state variables. Key assumptions are restriction to pure strategies, the inclusion of public randomization and a finite state space. We represent the key object in the "dynamic prograrnrrung approach to supergames", the value set, by its boundary. This parsimonious representa.tion of the value set allows us to compute a.n inner approxima.tion oí the set rapidly, far more ra.pidly tnan would be possible using "brute force" methods such as exhaustive search. We demonstrate the algonthm for a. fiscal policy game played by a government and its lender. The level of government expenditures to be financed is the state variable. Computa.tions venfy theoretical results of Cronshaw and Luenberger and Abreu, Pearce and Stacchetti, Bulow and 'Rogoff and Chari and Kehoe. Tbis computa.tiooal approach is generalizable to games of imperfect information, stochastic garues, a.nd games oí asymmetnc iníormation. Areas oí research we are exploriog are wa.ys to produce an "outer-approxima.tion" oí the value set, and other a.pplications. -27-

29 6 '" 5.5 l.e 5 +.f '" I!i ;:.e 5 "' o... f Payoff for Player Payoff for Player 1 '" :s 5.5 ;:.2 5 "'.f4.5 6,----, '" 5.5 l.2 5 f 4.5 6,----, x Payoff for Player Payoff for Player 1 Figure 8: Value sets, Program 2-28-

30 ;.; 6 N 6 2- IL 4 4 il a: Penad: Penad: N 6 2-!;. IL : 4 4 :> > Perlad: Periad: Figure 9: Evolution oí Value. Payoffs over time, Program

31 >< ';'!0.4,;!' a: :r- 0.4 CI 0.2 CI 0.2 is 5 l 5 l Period: Period: 0.5! ol l Period: L Period: 1 0 Figure l: Evolution oc allocations over time, Program

32 !i 0.6,;:.. z a: el Periodo Periodo,; B >. 8:0.6 " en Periodo Periodo Figure 11: Evolution oí allocations over time, Program

33

34 References [1] Abreu, Dilip. (1988): "n the Theory oc Infinitely Repeated Games with Discounting," Economelrica 56, [2J Abreu, Dilip, David Pearce, and Eneio Stacchetti (1986): "ptimal Cartel Equilibria with Imperfect Monitoriog," Joumal oi Economic Theory 39, [3] Abreu, Dilip, David Pearce, and Enoio Stacchetti (1990): "Toward a Theory oc Discounted Repeated Games with Imperfect Monitoring," Econometrica 58, [4] Bulow, Jererny and Kennetb Rogoff. 1989a. "Is to Forgive lo Forget?" American Economic Review 12: [5) Bulow, Jeremy and Kenneth Rogoff. 1989b. '"A Constant Recontracting Model oc Sovereign Debt," Journal 01 Political Economy 97(1): [6J Chari, V.V. and Patrick J. Kehoe "Sustainable Plans," Joumal 01 Political Economy 98, [7J Chari, V.V. and Patrick J. Kehoe. 1993a. "Sustainable Plans and Debt," Journal ol Economic Theory 61: [8J Chari, V.V. and Patrick J. Kehoe. 1993b. "Sustainable Debt and Mutual DefauIt," Review 01 Economic Studies 60: [9J Judd, Kenneth and Conklin, James. (199.5). "Cornputing Supergarne Equilibria," rnirneo, Hoover Institution.. [lj Cronshaw, Mark and David C. Luenberger (1994): "Strongly Syrnmetric Subgarne Perfect Equilibrium in Infinitely Repeated Carnes with Perfect Monitoring and Discounting," Cames and Economic Behavior 6: [11] Judd, Kenneth L. (1996): Numerical Methods in Economics, manuscript. [12] Stokey, Nancy L. (1991): "Credible Public Poliey," The Joumal 01 Economic Dynamics and Control 15,

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37 9309 Juan Dolado, Alessandra Goria and Andrea Ichino: lmmigration and growlh in the host country. 93/0 Amparo Ricardo Ricardo: Series históricas de contabilidad nacional y mercado de trabajo para la CE y EEUU: Fernando Restoy and G. Michael Rockinger: n stock market returns and returns on investment Jesús Saurina Salas: Indicadores de solvencia bancaria y contabilidad a valor de mercado Isabel Argimón, José Manuel González-Páramo, Maria Jesús Martín and José María Roldán: Productivity and infrastructure in the Spanish economy. (The Spanish original of this publication has the same number.) 9314 Fernando Ballabriga, Miguel Sebastián and Javier Vallés: Interdependence of EC economies: A VAR approach Isabel Argimón y M.a Jesús Martín: Se?ie de «stoch de infraestructuras del Estado y de las Administraciones Públicas en España P. Martínez Méndez: Fiscalidad, tipos de interés y tipo de cambio. 93J7 P. Martínez Méndez: Efectos sobre la política económica española de una fiscalidad distorsionada por la inflación Pablo Antolín and lympia Bover: Regional Migration in Spain: The effect of Personal Characteristics and of Unemployment, Wage and House Price Differentials Using Pooled Cross-Sections Samuel Bentolila y Juan J. Dolado: La contratación temporal y sus efectos sobre la competitividad Luis Julián Álvarez, Javier Jareño y Miguel Sebastián: Salarios públicos, salarios privados e inflación dual 9321 Ana Revenga: Credibility and inflation persistence in the European Monetary System. (The Spanish original of this publication has the same number.) 9322 María Pérez Jurado and Juan Luis Vega: Purchasing power parity: An empirical analysis. (The Spanish original of this publication has the same number.) 9323 Ignacio Hemando y Javier Vallés: Productividad sectorial: comportamiento cíclico en la economía española Juan J. Dolado, Miguel Sebastián and Javier Vallés: Cyclical patterns oc the Spanish economy Juan Ayuso y José Luis Escrivá: La evolución del control monetario en España Alberto Cabrero Bravo e Isabel Sánchez Garda: Métodos de predicción de los agregados monetarios Cristina Mazón: Is profitability related to market share? An intra-industry study in Spanish manufacturing Esther Gordo y Pilar L'Hotellerie: La competitividad de la industria española en una perspectiva macroeconómica Ana Buisán y Esther Gordo: El saldo comercial no energético español: determinantes y análisis de simulación ( ) Miguel Pellicer: Functions of the Banco de España: An historical perspective. 940J Carlos caña, Vicente Salas y Javier Vallés: Un análisis empírico de la financiación de la pequei'ia y mediana empresa manufacturera espai'iola: P. G. Fisher and J. L. Vega: An empirical analysis of M4 in the United Kingdom J. Ayuso, A. G. Haldane aud F. Restoy: Volatility transmission along the money market yield curve Gabriel Quirós: El mercado británico de deuda pública.

38 9405 Luis J. Álvarez and Fernando C. Ballabriga: BVAR models in the context of cointegration: A Monte Cario experimento 9406 Juan José Dolado, José Manuel González-Páramo y José M: Roldán: Convergencia económica entre las provincias españolas: evidencia empírica ( ) Ángel Estrada e Ignacio Hernando: La inversión en España: un análisis desde el lado de la oferta Ángel Estrada Garda, M: Teresa Sastre de Miguel y Juan Luis Vega Croissier. El mecanismo de transmisión de los tipos de interes: el caso español Pilar García Perca y Ramón G6mez: Elaboración de series históricas de empleo a partir de la Encuesta de Población Activa ( ). 94/0 F. J. Sáez Pérez de la Torre, J. M: Sánchez Sáez y M: T. Sastre de Miguel: Los mercados de operaciones bancarias en España: especialización productiva y competencia. 94/1 lympia Bover and Ángel Estrada: Durable consumption and house purchases: Evidence from Spanish panel data. 94/2 José Viñals: Building a Monetary Union in Europe: Is it worthwhile, where do we stand, and where are we going? (The Spanish original oí this publication has the same number.) 94/3 Carlos Chuliá: Los sistemas financieros nacionales y el espacio financiero europeo. 94/4 José Luis Escrivá and Andrew G. Haldane: The interest rate transmission mechanism: Sectoral estimates for Spain. (The Spanish original of this publication has the same number.) 94/5 M.a de los Llanos Matea y Ana Valentina Regil: Métodos para la extracción de señales y para la trimestralización. Una aplicación: Trimestralización del deflactor del consumo privado nacional. 94/6 José Antonio Cuenca: Variables para el estudio del sector monetario. Agregados monetarios y crediticios, y tipos de interés sintéticos Ángel Estrada y David López-Salido: La relación entre el consumo y la renta en España: un modelo empírico con datos agregados José M. González Mínguez: Una aplicación de los indicadores de discrecionalidad de la política fiscal a los países de la UE Juan Ayuso, María Pérez Jurado and Fernando Restoy: Is exchange rate iisk hjgher in the E.R.M. after the widening oí fluctuation bands? (The Spanish original of this publication has the same number.) 9420 Simon Mitner and David Metcalf: Spanish pay setting institutions and perfonnance outcomes. 942/ Javier Santillán: El SME, los mercados de djvisas y la transición hacia la Unión Monetaria Juan Luis Vega: ls lhe ALP long-run demand funclion stable? (The Spanish original of this publication has the same number.) 9423 Gabriel Quirós: El mercado italiano de deuda pública Isabel Argimón, José Manuel González-Páramo y José María Roldán: Inversión privada, gasto público y efecto expulsión: evidencia para el caso español Charles Goodhart and José Viñals: Strategy and tactics of monetary policy: Examples from Europe and the Antipodes Carmen Melcón: Estrategias de política monetaria basadas en el seguimiento directo de objetivos de inflación. Las experiencias de Nueva Zelanda, Canadá, Reino Unido y Suecia lympia Bover and Manuel ArellaRo: Female abour force participation in the 1980s: the case of Spain.

39 9428 Juan María Peñalosa: The Spanish catching-up process: General deterrninants and contribution oi the manufacturing industry Susana Núñez: Perspectivas de los sistemas de pagos: una reflexión crítica José Viñals: Es posible la convergencia en España?: En busca del tiempo perdido Jorge Blázquez y Miguel Sebastián: Capital público y restricción presupuestaria gubernamental Ana Buisán: Principales determinantes de los ingresos por turismo Ana Buisán y Esther Gordo: La protección nominal como factor determinante de las importaciones de bienes Ricardo Mestre: A macroeconomic evaluation oi the Spanish monetary policy transmission mechanism Fernando Restoy and Ana Revenga: ptimal exchange rate flexibility in an economy with intersectoral rigidities and nontraded goods Ángel Estrada and Javier Vallés: Investment and financial costs: Spanish evidence with panel data. (The Spanish original oi this publication has the same number.) 9507 Francisco Alonso: La modelización de la volatilidad del mercado bursátil español Francisco Alonso y Fernando Restoy: La remuneración de la volatilidad en el mercado español de renta variable Fernando C. BaUabriga, Miguel Sebastián y Javier Vallés: España en Europa: asimetrías reales y nominales Juan Carlos Casado, Juan Alberto Campoy y Carlos Chuliá: La regulación financiera española desde la adhesión a la Unión Europea Juan LuiS Díaz del Hoyo y A. Javier Prado Domínguez: Los FRAs como guías de las expectativas del mercado sobre tipos de interés José M: Sánchez Sáez y Teresa Sastre de Miguel: Es el tamaño un factor explicativo de las diferencias entre entidades bancarias? 9513 Juan Ayuso y Soledad Núñez: Desestabilizan los activos derivados el mercado al contado?: La experiencia española en el mercado de deuda pública M: Cruz Manzano Frías y M" Teresa Sastre de Miguel: Factores relevantes en la determinación del margen de explotación de bancos y cajas de ahorros Fernando Restoy and Philippe Weil: Approximate equilibrium asset prices Gabriel Quirós: El mercado francés de deuda pública Ana L. Revenga and Samuel Bentolila: What affects the employrnent rate intensity of growth? 9518 Ignacio Iglesias Araúzo y Jaime Esteban Velasco: Repos y operaciones simultáneas: estudio de la normativa Ignacio Fuentes: Las instituciones bancarias españolas y el Mercado Ú nico Ignacio Hernando: Política monetaria y estructura financiera de las empresas Luis Julián Álvarez y Miguel Sebastián: La inflación latente en España: una perspectiva macroeconómica Soledad Núñez Ramos: Estimación de la estructura temporal de los tipos de interés en España: elección entre métodos alternativos Isabel Argimón, José M. González Páramo y José M: Roldán Alegre: Does public spending crowd out private investment? Evidence from a panel of 14 ECD countries.

40 9524 Luis Julián Álvarez, Fernando C. Ballabriga y Javier Jareño: Un modelo macroeconométrico trimestral para la economía española Aurora Alejano y Juan M.a Peñalosa: La integración financiera de la economía española: efectos sobre los mercados financieros y la política monetaria Ramón Gómez Salvador y Juan J. Doladó: Creación y destrucción de empleo en España: un análisis descriptivo con datos de la CBBE Santiago Femández de Lis y Javier Santillán: Regímenes cambiaríos e integración monetaria en Europa Gabriel Quirós: Mercados financieros alemanes Juan Aruso Huertas: Is there a trade-off between exchange rate risk and interest rate risk? (The Spanish original of this publication has the same number.) 9530 Fernando Restoy: Determinantes de la curva de rendimientos: hipótesis expectacional y primas de riesgo Juan Ayuso and María Pérez Jurado: Devaluations and depreciation expectations in the EMS Panl Schulstad and Ángel Senat: An Empirical Examination of a Multilateral Target Zone Model Juan Ayuso, Soledad Núüez and María Pércz-Jurado: Volatility in Spanish financial markets: The recent experience Javier Andrés e Ignacio Hernando: Cómo afecta la inflación al crecimiento económico? Evidencia para los países de la CDE Barbara Dluhosch: n the fate of newcomers in the European Union: Lessons from the Spanish experience Santiago Femández de Lis: Classifications of Central Banks by Autonomy: A comparative analysis M: Cruz Manzano Frías y Sofía Galmés Belmonte: Credit Institutions' Price Policies and Type of Customer: lmpact on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism. (The Spanish original of this publication has the same number.) 9606 Malte Krüger: Speculation, Hedging and Intermediation in the Foreign Exchange Market Agustín Maravall: Short-Term Analysis of Macroeconomic Time Series Agustín MaravaU and Christophe Planas: Estimation Error and the Specification of Unobserved Component Models Agustín Maravall: Unobserved Components in Economic Time Series Matthew B. Canzoneri, Behzad Diba and Gwen Eudey: Trends in European Productivity and Real Exchange Rates Francisco Alonso, Jorge Martínez Pagés y María Pérez Jurado: Weighted Monetary Aggregates: an Empirical Approach. (The Spanish original of this publication has the same number.) 9612 Agustín Maravall and Daniel Peña: Missing bservations and Additive utliers in Time Series Models Juan Ayuso and Juan L. Vega: An empirical analysis of the peseta's exchange rate dynamics Juan Ayuso Huertas: Un análisis empírico de los tipos de interés reales ex-ante en España Enrique Alberola lia: ptimal exchange rate targets and macroeconomic stabilization.

41 9616 A. Jorge Padilla. Samuel Bentolila and Juan J. Dolado: Wage bargaining in industries with market power. 96/7 Juan J. Dolado and Francesc Marmol: Efficient estimation of cointegrating relationships among higher order and fractionally integrated processes Juan J. Dolado y Ramón Gómez: La relación entre vacantes y desempleo en España: perturbaciones agregadas y de reasignación Alberto Cabrero y Juan Carlos Delrieu: Elaboración de un índice sintético para predecir la inflación en España Una Louise BeU: Adjustment costs, uncertainty and employment inertia M.a de los Llanos Matea y Ana Valentina RegiI: Indicadores de inflación a corto plazo James Conklin: Computing value correspondences ft repeated games with state variables. (1) Previously published Working Papers are Usted in the Banco de España publications catalogue. Queries should be addressed to: Banco de España Sección de Publicaciones. Negociado de Distribución y Gestión Telephone: Alcalá, Madrid