Picking Winners is For Losers: A Strategy for Optimizing Investment Outcomes
|
|
- Shonda Melton
- 8 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Picking Winners is For Losers: A Strategy for Optimizing Investment Outcomes Clay graham DePaul University Risk Conference Las Vegas - November 11, 2011
2 REMEMBER Picking a winner is not at all the same as making a smart investment!
3 Pathway Mission Implementation Investments Control Decisions Methods Probabilities
4 Some Questions Sought to Be Addressed Is the amount of the investment as important as selecting a winner? Market inequities identified? Pricing of investment Value market
5 Ripped From Today s Headlines
6 Mission Have Fun Make Money Tom Peters
7 Our Credo Learn to cope with variance Keep a perspective on long term and commitment to invest Go where the numbers take you Capture the greatest long term reward as a function of a tempered risk What gets measured gets done Discipline Discipline Discipline!
8 Investments Value > Price
9 Some Value Measurements (can be compounded and complex) Return on Investment Yield Capital gain Risk Price volatility Probability variation of success Money management Duration Short versus Long Term Available liquidity
10 Various Investments (Sure things just don t exist) Stocks Options (and derivatives) Bonds Currency Metals (other hard assets ) Real Estate Gaming
11 The Process (gaming) Sniff and kick Kind of investments available What game Probabilities of success Payoff and price Invest or not If so How Much? Modeling game and economics
12 Methods..(join) the ultimate baptism into the religion of statistics. Jeff Ma
13 da Vig (as we say in Chicago) Vigorish, or simply the vig, is also known as juice or the take, is the amount charged by the house for its services. Bets: -110 Home, -110 Road House receives 220 in bets pays out 210 Makes 10/220 or 4.5% profit or Juice
14 Methods of Sports Gaming Investments Money Line Select team to win at specific price Over Under Pick above or below a specific total Grand Salami (same as above but for games that day) Spread Win or lose by fix number of points (runs)
15 Probabilities ( v a l u e > p r i c e ) Probability Winning (event) > Implied Probability of Line + Vig Implied probabilities: -125 = (125)/( ) = 56% 100 = (100)/( ) = 50% 150 = (100)/( ) = 40%
16 Probabilities Probabilities of success must be associated and tailored to each method of investment. Money line - Probability of Team winning Over Under - Probability over x or under x Spread - Probability Team A wins by y points (runs)
17 Modeling Baseball First and Foremost: Runs are the Currency of baseball
18 Modeling Baseball Traditional measures ineffective in quantifying run production Key Metric must be: Comparable among and between: Batters Pitchers Teams Additive Accurate & reproducible Expected Runs / Plate Appearance (EVR/PA)
19 Production Function Runs = k(evr/pab) α (1/ EVR/PAP) β Where: EVR/PAB means expected value of runs per plate appearance batter (pitcher) Hey Dude: this is linear in logs and you can solve it! Solve for α, β and anti log of k (since above equation is linear in logs!) ( r / B) = α = elasticity of run production attributable to batters (.66) ( r / P) = β = elasticity of run production attributable to pitchers (.34)
20 Probability of Winning (game) 1. Pythagorean (traditional): P(W H ) = (R H ) 2 / [(R H ) 2 + (R R ) 2 ] 2. Neutral (player based): P(W H ) = f(evr/par P,B, EVR/PAH P,B ) 3. 8 Variable: P(W H ) = f(evr/par P,B, EVR/PAH P,B, RANKR O,D, RANKR O,D ) 4. Sigma (dispersion & variance): P(W H ) = f(δr O / δh O, δr O / δh O, Δ Rank)
21 Decisions They (all) have a way of looking at numbers in a truly creative way. They understand the right question to ask to let numbers solve these problems. Michael Lewis
22 Money Line Price of investment set by the market Nomenclature (US lines) -180 means: pay 180 to win means: pay 100 to win 125 Select one team as having an economically viable return on investment Keep in mind that the home team is favored: 70% of the time yet wins only 52%
23 Over Under (total points or runs) Points (runs scored) either over or under a specified total Market usually tends to be balanced; i.e., price of bets closely symmetrical. Caveat: Grand Salami Over / under on all games played on given day
24 Observation (baseball) 60% of the time the winning team scores an odd number of runs Source: Baseball Prospectus.com 2011 Season Tabulated by: CJG
25 Negative Binomial vs. Gamma (Expected Runs / Game)
26 Decision Processes Quantify all possible investments EVROI Expected run margin Performance ranking variation Filter above criteria to add accuracy to forecat Identify just where there is an Edge Accuracy an imperative Probability of winning Price (line)
27 Home Team Considerations (market inequities) Basketball favored 71% yet wins just 61% Baseball favored 70% wins 52% Over Under Basketball over / under with line 50/50 Baseball Over / under: 52% / 48% Odd number of runs 60% 90% of Sport Gamblers Loose!
28 Selection Optimizing Filtration (using Evolver for Road and Home Models) EVROI Lines Rankings P(W) DB Duratio n Maximize: Profitable Investments
29 How Much to Invest? (% bankroll or each bet) Bob Stoll, aka, Dr. Bob Football about 2% Basketball about 1.5% San Francisco betting community Consensus 1% to 6% Kelly Criteria (major investors)
30 Kelly Criterion (I) Objective: maximize bankroll (long run) f = (bp-q) q / b Where: f = fraction of bankroll to wager b = profit (proportion of payoff) p = probability of winning q = probability of losing
31 Kelly Criterion (II) f = (bp q) / b = (p(b+1) -1)/p Note: 1. f = expected winnings / bet net winnings 2. Definition of the Edge = p*b q (numerator) 3. Expected value ROI = edge/cost
32 Kelly Criterion (III) More Risk = Increase Probabilities of: Both Good and Bad Outcomes 13% 9% Overbetting is worse than Underbetting
33 Some Problems with Kelly Proportion of bankroll too much exposure Pragmatic gaming judgment not considered Maximum bet Maximum at risk on a given day Over dependence on probability of winning Nominal emphasis on economics
34 Seasonal Return on Bankroll Period Bob Stoll 1 (Dr. Bob) % % % % % % % % % % average 73.0% Source:(1) DrBobSports.com; Spread - 2% and
35 Actual Bankroll Pattern 350, , ,000 Fund per contract Bankroll 200, , ,000 50, /29 5/6 5/13 5/20 5/27 6/3 6/10 6/17 6/24 7/1 7/8 7/15 7/22 7/29 8/5 8/12 8/19 8/26 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 Client Cut Available Bankroll
36 Money Management Reasonable Criteria Bet size upper and lower constraints Economically targeted Invest more when with higher expected value of return Transition over finite range Different formulations predicated upon Type of investment Investment configuration
37 Goal Focused Control Equation Staking % = A b +((A t -A b ) / (1+Exp (-(EVROI-X 0 ) / W))) Where: A b = minimum proportion of bankroll A t = maximum proportion of bankroll W = transition slope X 0 = shifting factor EVROI = expected ROI of specific investment
38 Staking Level Tied to Expected ROI
39 What are the Results? Money Line Description Flat Kelly Slade Average Invest Rate 2. 5 % 2. 5 % 2. 5 % Maximum bet 10,000 10,000 10,000 Starting Bankroll 200, , ,000 % Profit (season) % 7. 2 % %
40 What are the Results? Over / Under Description Kelly Slade Average Invest Rate 2. 5 % 2. 5 % Maximum bet 10,000 10,000 Starting Bankroll 200, ,000 % Profit (season) 90% 210%
41 Implementation Do not put your faith in what statistics say until you have carefully considered what they do not say. William Watt
42 Data Preparation Implementation Model(s) Day to day updating Players Lines Exogenous factors Placing investments Accuracy Timing
43 Why Betters Fail? Implementation Inaccurate implementation (making wrong bet) Head for the hills syndrome (short term perspective) Reactive (reduce investment after losses) Realistic expectations Dumb ass rules,i.e., no bets when probability of winning is less than 50% Violate 3Ps Preparation Persistence Patience
44 Control Winning (profitability) isn t everything; it s the only thing. Vince Lombardi
45 Control To assure success it is an imperative to: Maintain a History of all decisions including logic in their derivation Review and validate functional algorithms Maintain daily, weekly, monthly and TYD records performance Never be content with just good results
46 The Magnitude of Investment can play a more dominant role to long run profitability than that of the probability of winning!
Sin City. In poker, the facility to buy additional chips in tournaments. Total payout liability of a casino during any one game.
gambling glossary Words & phrases to help you out with your dealings at The Paramount Casino A Action: Active Player: Added Game: Add-on: Aggregate Limit: A bet or wager. In poker, one who is still in
More informationA Contrarian Approach to the Sports Betting Marketplace
A Contrarian Approach to the Sports Betting Marketplace Dan Fabrizio, James Cee Sports Insights, Inc. Beverly, MA 01915 USA Email: dan@sportsinsights.com Abstract Actual sports betting data is collected
More informationSport Hedge Millionaire s Guide to a growing portfolio. Sports Hedge
Sports Hedge Sport Hedging for the millionaire inside us, a manual for hedging and profiting for a growing portfolio Congratulations, you are about to have access to the techniques sports books do not
More informationDuring the course of our research on NBA basketball, we found out a couple of interesting principles.
After mining all the available NBA data for the last 15 years, we found the keys to a successful basketball betting system: If you follow this system exactly, you can expect to hit 90% of your NBA bets.
More informationPoint Spreads. Sports Data Mining. Changneng Xu. Topic : Point Spreads
Point Spreads Changneng Xu Sports Data Mining Topic : Point Spreads 09.07.14 TU Darmstadt Knowledge engineering Prof. Johnannes Fürnkranz Changneng Xu 1 Overview Introduction Method of Spread Ratings Example
More informationDEVELOPING A MODEL THAT REFLECTS OUTCOMES OF TENNIS MATCHES
DEVELOPING A MODEL THAT REFLECTS OUTCOMES OF TENNIS MATCHES Barnett T., Brown A., and Clarke S. Faculty of Life and Social Sciences, Swinburne University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia ABSTRACT Many tennis
More informationA New Interpretation of Information Rate
A New Interpretation of Information Rate reproduced with permission of AT&T By J. L. Kelly, jr. (Manuscript received March 2, 956) If the input symbols to a communication channel represent the outcomes
More informationA Professional Handicapper Shares His Secrets On Betting Football, Basketball and Baseball For A Living
A Professional Handicapper Shares His Secrets On Betting Football, Basketball and Baseball For A Living v EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Sports betting, like all systematized forms of gambling, has a built-in negative
More informationLecture 25: Money Management Steven Skiena. http://www.cs.sunysb.edu/ skiena
Lecture 25: Money Management Steven Skiena Department of Computer Science State University of New York Stony Brook, NY 11794 4400 http://www.cs.sunysb.edu/ skiena Money Management Techniques The trading
More informationBetting with the Kelly Criterion
Betting with the Kelly Criterion Jane June 2, 2010 Contents 1 Introduction 2 2 Kelly Criterion 2 3 The Stock Market 3 4 Simulations 5 5 Conclusion 8 1 Page 2 of 9 1 Introduction Gambling in all forms,
More informationPart I. Gambling and Information Theory. Information Theory and Networks. Section 1. Horse Racing. Lecture 16: Gambling and Information Theory
and Networks Lecture 16: Gambling and Paul Tune http://www.maths.adelaide.edu.au/matthew.roughan/ Lecture_notes/InformationTheory/ Part I Gambling and School of Mathematical
More informationBeating the MLB Moneyline
Beating the MLB Moneyline Leland Chen llxchen@stanford.edu Andrew He andu@stanford.edu 1 Abstract Sports forecasting is a challenging task that has similarities to stock market prediction, requiring time-series
More informationInternational Statistical Institute, 56th Session, 2007: Phil Everson
Teaching Regression using American Football Scores Everson, Phil Swarthmore College Department of Mathematics and Statistics 5 College Avenue Swarthmore, PA198, USA E-mail: peverso1@swarthmore.edu 1. Introduction
More informationTHE DETERMINANTS OF SCORING IN NFL GAMES AND BEATING THE SPREAD
THE DETERMINANTS OF SCORING IN NFL GAMES AND BEATING THE SPREAD C. Barry Pfitzner, Department of Economics/Business, Randolph-Macon College, Ashland, VA 23005, bpfitzne@rmc.edu, 804-752-7307 Steven D.
More informationSeven Timeless Principles BARRY JAMES, PRESIDENT AND CEO JAMES INVESTMENT RESEARCH
Seven Timeless Principles BARRY JAMES, PRESIDENT AND CEO JAMES INVESTMENT RESEARCH Investing Isn t Gambling Don t gamble. Take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it til it goes up, then
More informationKelly s Criterion for Option Investment. Ron Shonkwiler (shonkwiler@math.gatech.edu)
Kelly s Criterion for Option Investment Ron Shonkwiler (shonkwiler@math.gatech.edu) 1 1 Kelly s Criterion for Option Investment Ron Shonkwiler (shonkwiler@math.gatech.edu) Outline: Review Kelly s Problem
More informationPOINT SPREAD SHADING AND BEHAVIORAL BIASES IN NBA BETTING MARKETS. by Brad R. Humphreys *
RIVISTA DI ISSN 1825-6678 DIRITTO ED ECONOMIA DELLO SPORT Vol. VI, Fasc. 1, 2010 POINT SPREAD SHADING AND BEHAVIORAL BIASES IN NBA BETTING MARKETS by Brad R. Humphreys * SUMMARY: Introduction 1. A Simple
More informationAdditional details >>> HERE <<<
Additional details >>> HERE http://pdfo.org/sportbtwin/pdx/201t1892/ Tags: 98gq7t2 how to sports betting
More informationLoss rebates. December 27, 2004
Loss rebates December 27, 2004 1 Introduction The game is defined by a list of payouts u 1, u 2,..., u l, and a list of probabilities p 1, p 2,..., p l, p i = 1. We allow u i to be rational numbers, not
More informationAlgorithmic Trading Session 1 Introduction. Oliver Steinki, CFA, FRM
Algorithmic Trading Session 1 Introduction Oliver Steinki, CFA, FRM Outline An Introduction to Algorithmic Trading Definition, Research Areas, Relevance and Applications General Trading Overview Goals
More informationThe Secret To Making Consistent. Profits Betting On Sports
The Secret To Making Consistent Profits Betting On Sports How To Start Making Serious Cash In Sports Right Away Introduction Sports wagering is by far the best way to make money online when gambling. Every
More informationWilliam Hill Race and Sports Book House Wagering Rules and Regulations are provided for your information.
House Rules William Hill Race and Sports Book House Wagering Rules and Regulations are provided for your information. 1. GENERAL 1.1. MANAGEMENT 1.2. TICKET ACCURACY 1.3. DEFINITION OF "ACTION" 1.4. DEFINITION
More informationStatistical techniques for betting on football markets.
Statistical techniques for betting on football markets. Stuart Coles Padova, 11 June, 2015 Smartodds Formed in 2003. Originally a betting company, now a company that provides predictions and support tools
More informationMy Football Trading BluePrint for Making Thousands of Dollars Betting on Both Teams to Score [BTTS-Yes] Market!
Worth 77 My Football Trading BluePrint for Making Thousands of Dollars Betting on Both Teams to Score [BTTS-Yes] Market! Harrison Okoyibo Website: www.safepunters.com Results for June 2015 UNVERIFIED RECORD:
More informationPrices, Point Spreads and Profits: Evidence from the National Football League
Prices, Point Spreads and Profits: Evidence from the National Football League Brad R. Humphreys University of Alberta Department of Economics This Draft: February 2010 Abstract Previous research on point
More informationSOME ASPECTS OF GAMBLING WITH THE KELLY CRITERION. School of Mathematical Sciences. Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia 3168
SOME ASPECTS OF GAMBLING WITH THE KELLY CRITERION Ravi PHATARFOD School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia 3168 In this paper we consider the problem of gambling with
More informationThe Kelly criterion for spread bets
IMA Journal of Applied Mathematics 2007 72,43 51 doi:10.1093/imamat/hxl027 Advance Access publication on December 5, 2006 The Kelly criterion for spread bets S. J. CHAPMAN Oxford Centre for Industrial
More informationChapter 7 - Find trades I
Chapter 7 - Find trades I Find Trades I Help Help Guide Click PDF to get a PDF printable version of this help file. Find Trades I is a simple way to find option trades for a single stock. Enter the stock
More informationVolume 30, Issue 4. Market Efficiency and the NHL totals betting market: Is there an under bias?
Volume 30, Issue 4 Market Efficiency and the NHL totals betting market: Is there an under bias? Bill M Woodland Economics Department, Eastern Michigan University Linda M Woodland College of Business, Eastern
More informationThe Determinants of Scoring in NFL Games and Beating the Over/Under Line. C. Barry Pfitzner*, Steven D. Lang*, and Tracy D.
FALL 2009 The Determinants of Scoring in NFL Games and Beating the Over/Under Line C. Barry Pfitzner*, Steven D. Lang*, and Tracy D. Rishel** Abstract In this paper we attempt to predict the total points
More informationBjörn Bäckström, Lars Olsén and Simon Renström Copyright 2011 ClaroBet AB. Updated: May. 12, 11 You may not distribute or copy any of the text or use
Björn Bäckström, Lars Olsén and Simon Renström Copyright 2011 ClaroBet AB. Updated: May. 12, 11 You may not distribute or copy any of the text or use it in any other way except for personal use, without
More informationPublished in 2003 by High Stakes Publishing, 21 Great Ormond Street, London, WC1N 3JB www.highstakes.co.uk. Copyright Joseph Buchdahl
Published in 2003 by High Stakes Publishing, 21 Great Ormond Street, London, WC1N 3JB www.highstakes.co.uk Copyright Joseph Buchdahl The right of Joseph Buchdahl to be identified as author of this work
More informationPick Me a Winner An Examination of the Accuracy of the Point-Spread in Predicting the Winner of an NFL Game
Pick Me a Winner An Examination of the Accuracy of the Point-Spread in Predicting the Winner of an NFL Game Richard McGowan Boston College John Mahon University of Maine Abstract Every week in the fall,
More informationBookmaking. A practical study on how illegal bookmakers operate and their weak points. By: L. Burke Files lbfiles@feeinc.com.
Bookmaking A practical study on how illegal bookmakers operate and their weak points. By: L. Burke Files lbfiles@feeinc.com page 1 Bookmaking - How a Bookie Operates and their weak points. What actually
More informationHow to bet and win: and why not to trust a winner. Niall MacKay. Department of Mathematics
How to bet and win: and why not to trust a winner Niall MacKay Department of Mathematics Two ways to win Arbitrage: exploit market imperfections to make a profit, with certainty Two ways to win Arbitrage:
More informationarxiv:1112.0829v1 [math.pr] 5 Dec 2011
How Not to Win a Million Dollars: A Counterexample to a Conjecture of L. Breiman Thomas P. Hayes arxiv:1112.0829v1 [math.pr] 5 Dec 2011 Abstract Consider a gambling game in which we are allowed to repeatedly
More informationForecasting Accuracy and Line Changes in the NFL and College Football Betting Markets
Forecasting Accuracy and Line Changes in the NFL and College Football Betting Markets Steven Xu Faculty Advisor: Professor Benjamin Anderson Colgate University Economics Department April 2013 [Abstract]
More informationLecture 4: The Black-Scholes model
OPTIONS and FUTURES Lecture 4: The Black-Scholes model Philip H. Dybvig Washington University in Saint Louis Black-Scholes option pricing model Lognormal price process Call price Put price Using Black-Scholes
More informationThe Ultimate Blackjack System
The Ultimate Blackjack System Thank you Thank you for your interest in this incredible system. Soon you will be making money from online Blackjack. This book comes with full resale rights. Please feel
More informationUsing Past Performance to Predict NFL Outcomes: A Chartist Approach
Using Past Performance to Predict NFL Outcomes: A Chartist Approach March 1997 This Revision: April 1997 David N. DeJong Department of Economics University of Pittsburgh Pittsburgh, PA 15260 dejong+@pitt.edu
More informationFair Bets and Profitability in College Football Gambling
236 s and Profitability in College Football Gambling Rodney J. Paul, Andrew P. Weinbach, and Chris J. Weinbach * Abstract Efficient markets in college football are tested over a 25- year period, 1976-2000.
More informationMONEY MANAGEMENT. Guy Bower delves into a topic every trader should endeavour to master - money management.
MONEY MANAGEMENT Guy Bower delves into a topic every trader should endeavour to master - money management. Many of us have read Jack Schwager s Market Wizards books at least once. As you may recall it
More informationApplying the Kelly criterion to lawsuits
Law, Probability and Risk (2010) 9, 139 147 Advance Access publication on April 27, 2010 doi:10.1093/lpr/mgq002 Applying the Kelly criterion to lawsuits TRISTAN BARNETT Faculty of Business and Law, Victoria
More informationSam Schaefer April 2011
Football Betting Trends Sam Schaefer April 2011 2 Acknowledgements I would like to take this time to thank all of those who have contributed to my learning the past four years. This includes my parents,
More informationWho is behind The Betting Lion?
Who is behind The Betting Lion? My name is Mike Walker and I am the man behind the succesful sports handicapping service The Betting Lion. I turned $2000 into $460 000 for 5 years before I discovered my
More informationEquotion. Working with Equotion
Equotion Working with Equotion Working with Equotion This how to guide has been pulled together to help new users get the most out of the Equotion system. Part of this is to make sure that you understand
More informationBeating the Book: Are There Patterns in NFL Betting Lines?
Beating the Book: Are There Patterns in NFL Betting Lines? Michael R. Summers Abstract Las Vegas sports books provide two even-money bets (not counting commission, or "vigorish") regarding National Football
More informationA Flexible Benchmark Relative Method of Attributing Returns for Fixed Income Portfolios
White Paper A Flexible Benchmark Relative Method of Attributing s for Fixed Income Portfolios By Stanley J. Kwasniewski, CFA Copyright 2013 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. A Flexible
More informationHOW TO PROFIT FROM PARLAYS
HOW TO PROFIT FROM PARLAYS The proper use of parlays can be one of the best weapons in your arsenal. A lot of bettors will tell you parlays are bad bets. Some very good handicappers I ve known never use
More informationTreasure Island Sports Book House Wagering Rules
Treasure Island Sports Book House Wagering Rules 1. Please check your ticket for accuracy before leaving the writer s station. a. Tickets cannot be altered after leaving the window. b. Once a wager is
More informationRating Systems for Fixed Odds Football Match Prediction
Football-Data 2003 1 Rating Systems for Fixed Odds Football Match Prediction What is a Rating System? A rating system provides a quantitative measure of the superiority of one football team over their
More informationOptimal Betting Spreads
1 Optimal Betting Spreads The tables of Optimal Betting Spreads, in Chapters 6-10 of The Brh Systems Book, contain all the information which a player requires to design Betting Schemes which fit their
More informationThe New Mexico Lottery
The New Mexico Lottery 26 February 2014 Lotteries 26 February 2014 1/27 Today we will discuss the various New Mexico Lottery games and look at odds of winning and the expected value of playing the various
More informationSection 6: Model Selection, Logistic Regression and more...
Section 6: Model Selection, Logistic Regression and more... Carlos M. Carvalho The University of Texas McCombs School of Business http://faculty.mccombs.utexas.edu/carlos.carvalho/teaching/ 1 Model Building
More informationWe have put together this beginners guide to sports betting to help you through your first foray into the betting world.
If there is one thing about sports betting that is an absolute certainty, it s that the game is infinitely more exciting when there is money on the outcome. Most people like you are new to this concept
More informationThe Impact of a Finite Bankroll on an Even-Money Game
The Impact of a Finite Bankroll on an Even-Money Game Kelvin Morin Manitoba Lotteries Corporation kelmorin@hotmail.com / morink@mlc.mb.ca 2003 Calculating the average cost of playing a table game is usually
More informationIntroduction to the Rebate on Loss Analyzer Contact: JimKilby@usa.net 702-436-7954
Introduction to the Rebate on Loss Analyzer Contact: JimKilby@usa.net 702-436-7954 One of the hottest marketing tools used to attract the premium table game customer is the "Rebate on Loss." The rebate
More informationRisk Adjustment for Poker Players
Risk Ajustment for Poker Players William Chin DePaul University, Chicago, Illinois Marc Ingenoso Conger Asset Management LLC, Chicago, Illinois September, 2006 Introuction In this article we consier risk
More informationSports Action & PlayNow Sports FAQ s
Sports Action & PlayNow Sports FAQ s Sports Action and PlayNow Sports currently provide sports bettors with the best of both worlds, providing two unique sports betting options to all B.C. residents of
More informationBasketball Market Efficiency and the Big Dog Bias. Ladd Kochman* and Randy Goodwin*
Basketball Market Efficiency and the Big Dog Bias Ladd Kochman* and Randy Goodwin* Abstract A betting rule is devised to profit from an alleged unwillingness of strong favorites in the National Basketball
More informationWIN AT ANY COST? How should sports teams spend their m oney to win more games?
Mathalicious 2014 lesson guide WIN AT ANY COST? How should sports teams spend their m oney to win more games? Professional sports teams drop serious cash to try and secure the very best talent, and the
More informationOnline Gambling. The main forms of online gambling are online wagering and online gaming.
Online Gambling The main forms of online gambling are online wagering and online gaming. Online wagering is comprised of betting on racing (thoroughbred, harness and dog), sports betting (such as the outcome
More informationפרויקט מסכם לתואר בוגר במדעים )B.Sc( במתמטיקה שימושית
המחלקה למתמטיקה Department of Mathematics פרויקט מסכם לתואר בוגר במדעים )B.Sc( במתמטיקה שימושית הימורים אופטימליים ע"י שימוש בקריטריון קלי אלון תושיה Optimal betting using the Kelly Criterion Alon Tushia
More informationStart. What are arbitrage bets about? Is this legitimate?
Table of contents Start... 3 What are arbitrage bets about?... 3 Is this legitimate?... 3 The Investment... 4 Money... 4 Time... 4 Profit... 5 Too good to be true... 5 Arbitrage in figures... 6 Types of
More informationCalculated Bets: Computers, Gambling, and Mathematical Modeling to Win Steven Skiena
Calculated Bets: Computers, Gambling, and Mathematical Modeling to Win Steven Skiena Department of Computer Science State University of New York Stony Brook, NY 11794 4400 http://www.cs.sunysb.edu/ skiena
More informationSPORTSBOOK TERMS & CONDITIONS
SPORTSBOOK TERMS & CONDITIONS DATE OF ISSUE: 01.04.2014 1. General Sports Rules 1.1 Every user himself defines the bets, except the limitation that is set by the earnings limits according to the calculation
More informationHow to Beat Online Roulette!
Martin J. Silverthorne How to Beat Online Roulette! Silverthorne Publications, Inc. How to Beat Online Roulette! COPYRIGHT 2015 Silverthorne Publications Inc. All rights reserved. Except for brief passages
More informationCHAPTER 6 RISK AND RISK AVERSION
CHAPTER 6 RISK AND RISK AVERSION RISK AND RISK AVERSION Risk with Simple Prospects Risk, Speculation, and Gambling Risk Aversion and Utility Values Risk with Simple Prospects The presence of risk means
More informationCIRCUS CIRCUS LAS VEGAS RACE AND SPORTS BOOK HOUSE RULES
CIRCUS CIRCUS LAS VEGAS RACE AND SPORTS BOOK HOUSE RULES GENERAL RULES Please check your tickets for accuracy before leaving the betting window. Leaving the window with the ticket is deemed an acceptance
More informationGuide to Spread Betting
www.footballbettingdata.co.uk Guide to Spread Betting Part One: How to get a 9/2 payout from a 5/6 shot Are you interested in boosting your profits? Of course you are. Who isn t? There is more to making
More informationRisk Formulæ for Proportional Betting
Risk Formulæ for Proportional Betting William Chin DePaul University, Chicago, Illinois Marc Ingenoso Conger Asset Management LLC, Chicago, Illinois September 9, 2006 Introduction A canon of the theory
More informationREVIEW: GT TIPS REVIEWER: NICK WARD PROMISING SPORTS BETTING SERVICE RUN BY TEAM OF INDUSTRY CONTACTS
REVIEW: GT TIPS REVIEWER: NICK WARD PROMISING SPORTS BETTING SERVICE RUN BY TEAM OF INDUSTRY CONTACTS Service Name: GT Tips Contact: George Taylor Website: http://www.gttips.co.uk/ Email: george@gttips.co.uk
More informationLIVE BETTING ULTRA RULES
LIVE BETTING ULTRA RULES I. General Rules 1. Placement of wagers All wagers for Prematch Ultra and Live In Play Ultra must be placed online and are final once confirmed with the password. 2. Specificity
More informationThe Kelly Criterion. A closer look at how estimation errors affect portfolio performance. by Adrian Halhjem Sælen. Advisor: Professor Steinar Ekern
NORGES HANDELSHØYSKOLE Bergen, Fall 2012 The Kelly Criterion A closer look at how estimation errors affect portfolio performance by Adrian Halhjem Sælen Advisor: Professor Steinar Ekern Master Thesis in
More informationPress Kit Frequently Asked Questions
Press Kit Frequently Asked Questions WHAT IS REWARDBET? RewardBet is a software tool that provides a simple three step process to betting, designed to be more engaging for customers and to help them maximize
More informationPREDICTING THE MATCH OUTCOME IN ONE DAY INTERNATIONAL CRICKET MATCHES, WHILE THE GAME IS IN PROGRESS
PREDICTING THE MATCH OUTCOME IN ONE DAY INTERNATIONAL CRICKET MATCHES, WHILE THE GAME IS IN PROGRESS Bailey M. 1 and Clarke S. 2 1 Department of Epidemiology & Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Australia
More informationThe NCAA Basketball Betting Market: Tests of the Balanced Book and Levitt Hypotheses
The NCAA Basketball Betting Market: Tests of the Balanced Book and Levitt Hypotheses Rodney J. Paul, St. Bonaventure University Andrew P. Weinbach, Coastal Carolina University Kristin K. Paul, St. Bonaventure
More informationIntegrating Strategic and
Integrating Strategic and Financial Planning Cathy Sullivan Clark Director, Health Innovation Healthcare Trustees of New York State Annual Conference September 17, 2011 Noblis 2011 Context: Substantial
More informationLecture 2: The Kelly criterion for favorable games: stock market investing for individuals
Lecture 2: The Kelly criterion for favorable games: stock market investing for individuals David Aldous September 8, 2014 Most adults drive/own a car Few adults work in the auto industry. By analogy Most
More informationJournal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports
Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Volume 4, Issue 2 2008 Article 7 Racial Bias in the NBA: Implications in Betting Markets Tim Larsen, Brigham Young University - Utah Joe Price, Brigham Young
More informationLecture 11: The Greeks and Risk Management
Lecture 11: The Greeks and Risk Management This lecture studies market risk management from the perspective of an options trader. First, we show how to describe the risk characteristics of derivatives.
More informationEvaluating Trading Systems By John Ehlers and Ric Way
Evaluating Trading Systems By John Ehlers and Ric Way INTRODUCTION What is the best way to evaluate the performance of a trading system? Conventional wisdom holds that the best way is to examine the system
More informationA Test for Inherent Characteristic Bias in Betting Markets ABSTRACT. Keywords: Betting, Market, NFL, Efficiency, Bias, Home, Underdog
A Test for Inherent Characteristic Bias in Betting Markets ABSTRACT We develop a model to estimate biases for inherent characteristics in betting markets. We use the model to estimate biases in the NFL
More informationPrediction Markets, Fair Games and Martingales
Chapter 3 Prediction Markets, Fair Games and Martingales Prediction markets...... are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. The current market prices can then be interpreted
More informationTesting Efficiency in the Major League of Baseball Sports Betting Market.
Testing Efficiency in the Major League of Baseball Sports Betting Market. Jelle Lock 328626, Erasmus University July 1, 2013 Abstract This paper describes how for a range of betting tactics the sports
More informationOBJECTIVE ASSESSMENT OF FORECASTING ASSIGNMENTS USING SOME FUNCTION OF PREDICTION ERRORS
OBJECTIVE ASSESSMENT OF FORECASTING ASSIGNMENTS USING SOME FUNCTION OF PREDICTION ERRORS CLARKE, Stephen R. Swinburne University of Technology Australia One way of examining forecasting methods via assignments
More informationAccurately and Efficiently Measuring Individual Account Credit Risk On Existing Portfolios
Accurately and Efficiently Measuring Individual Account Credit Risk On Existing Portfolios By: Michael Banasiak & By: Daniel Tantum, Ph.D. What Are Statistical Based Behavior Scoring Models And How Are
More informationNumerical Algorithms for Predicting Sports Results
Numerical Algorithms for Predicting Sports Results by Jack David Blundell, 1 School of Computing, Faculty of Engineering ABSTRACT Numerical models can help predict the outcome of sporting events. The features
More informationIncorporating Commodities into a Multi-Asset Class Risk Model
Incorporating Commodities into a Multi-Asset Class Risk Model Dan dibartolomeo, Presenting Research by TJ Blackburn 2013 London Investment Seminar November, 2013 Outline of Today s Presentation Institutional
More informationMaking Sense of the Mayhem: Machine Learning and March Madness
Making Sense of the Mayhem: Machine Learning and March Madness Alex Tran and Adam Ginzberg Stanford University atran3@stanford.edu ginzberg@stanford.edu I. Introduction III. Model The goal of our research
More informationA Statistical Analysis of Popular Lottery Winning Strategies
CS-BIGS 4(1): 66-72 2010 CS-BIGS http://www.bentley.edu/csbigs/vol4-1/chen.pdf A Statistical Analysis of Popular Lottery Winning Strategies Albert C. Chen Torrey Pines High School, USA Y. Helio Yang San
More informationIntelligent Agent for Playing Casino Card Games
Intelligent Agent for Playing Casino Card Games Sanchit Goyal Department of Computer Science University of North Dakota Grand Forks, ND 58202 sanchitgoyal01@gmail.com Ruchitha Deshmukh Department of Computer
More informationIF I ONLY KNEW HOW TO BET...
Chapter 4 IF I ONLY KNEW HOW TO BET... SECRET: They manage their money to maximize their advantage. WHAT IS MONEY MANAGEMENT? In this day and age of usurious takeout, it s more important than ever to manage
More informationSAMPLE MID-TERM QUESTIONS
SAMPLE MID-TERM QUESTIONS William L. Silber HOW TO PREPARE FOR THE MID- TERM: 1. Study in a group 2. Review the concept questions in the Before and After book 3. When you review the questions listed below,
More informationThe Ten Commandments of Forex Target Trading
The Ten Commandments of Forex Target Trading www.forextargettrading.com The 1st Commandment: Thou Shalt Always Protect Thy Capital Without capital, you have nothing with which to trade. Trading any currency,
More informationImproving paired comparison models for NFL point spreads by data transformation. Gregory J. Matthews
Improving paired comparison models for NFL point spreads by data transformation by Gregory J. Matthews A Project Report Submitted to the Faculty of WORCESTER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE in partial fulfillment
More informationThe Ben Franklin Count
The Ben Franklin Count by The Automatic Monkey A Balanced, Intermediate Level 2 Count Using the Revere Point Count System Tags, With Rounded Playing Indices, For Shoe Blackjack Players The Ben Franklin
More informationLive Betting Extra Rules
Live Betting Extra Rules Rules for General Main Live Lines The following rules apply for Live Betting: Markets do not include overtime unless otherwise stated. Lines are offered at the provider s discretion.
More informationRisk, Return, and Gambling Market Efficiency. William H. Dare Oklahoma State University September 5, 2006
Risk, Return, and Gambling Market Efficiency William H. Dare Oklahoma State University September 5, 2006 Do not cite unless with written permission of the author. Adjusting for risk in the test of gambling
More information