A System for Possible Early Warning of Disastrous Solar Flares

Transcription

1 A System for Possible Early Warning of Disastrous Solar Flares Jere Jenkins Ephraim Fischbach

2

3

4 116m In Decay y = x R 2 = Counts/10s ln(counts/10s) Time (s) Counts ln(counts) Linear (ln(counts))

5

6 Brookhaven National Laboratory Measurement of 32 Si Half-life David Alburger Garman Harbottle Eleanor Norton

7 D.E. Alburger, G. Harbottle, E.F. Norton, Earth and Planetary Science Letters 78 (1986) 168.

8 D.E. Alburger, G. Harbottle, E.F. Norton, Earth and Planetary Science Letters 78 (1986) 168.

9 D.E. Alburger, G. Harbottle, E.F. Norton, Earth and Planetary Science Letters 78 (1986) 168.

10 D.E. Alburger, G. Harbottle, E.F. Norton, Earth and Planetary Science Letters 78 (1986) 168.

11 Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB) Europium Half-lives and Long Term Detector Stability Helmut Siegert Heinrich Schrader Ulrich Schötzig

12 H. Siegert, H. Schrader, U. Schoetzig, Applied Radiation and Isotopes 49 (1998) 1397.

13 H. Siegert, H. Schrader, U. Schötzig, Applied Radiation and Isotopes 49 (1998) 1397.

14

15

16 (7.51±1.07) x 10 5 Events missing

17

18

19 40 hours precursor

20

21 1.002 REVISED ROI 54 Mn Gross/Net December 2006 With Integrated GOES-11 X-rays A B C D E F G H 1.0E E-01 Normalized, Undecayed 54 Mn Counts/4 hrs E E E E-05 Integrated X-ray Energy (W/m 2 ) E E-07 11/29 12/4 12/9 12/14 12/19 12/24 12/29 1/3 1/8 Date (2006) For the letter key, see following page.

22 December 2006 Tag EName Start Stop Peak GOES Class Derived Position (SXI- GOES12 or EIT High Cadence Wavelength) gev_ _ /12/05 07:45:00 08:06:00 08:03:00 M1.8 S05E71 ( 930 ) gev_ _ /12/05 09:07:00 09:14:00 09:11:00 C1.5 S06E71 ( 930 ) A gev_ _ /12/05 10:18:00 10:45:00 10:35:00 X9.0 S06E59 ( 930 ) gev_ _ /12/06 01:30:00 03:15:00 02:20:00 M1.3 S06E67 ( 930 ) gev_ _ /12/06 08:02:00 09:03:00 08:23:00 M6.0 S02E65 ( 930 ) B gev_ _ /12/06 18:29:00 19:00:00 18:47:00 X6.5 S05E57 ( 930 ) C gev_ _ /12/06 20:14:00 20:22:00 20:19:00 M3.5 S03E55 ( 930 ) gev_ _ /12/07 04:27:00 05:20:00 04:45:00 C6.1 S05E51 ( 930 ) D gev_ _ /12/13 02:14:00 02:57:00 02:40:00 X3.4 S07W22 ( 930 ) gev_ _ /12/14 16:36:00 16:59:00 16:49:00 C1.2 S08W39 ( 930 ) E gev_ _ /12/14 21:07:00 22:26:00 22:15:00 X1.5 S06W46 ( 930 ) F gev_ _ /12/17 14:47:00 18:37:00 17:09:00 C2.1 S07W89 ( 930 ) gev_ _ /12/22 03:45:00 03:59:00 03:51:00 A2.2 S09E89 G gev_ _ /12/22 04:49:00 05:19:00 04:56:00 A5.7 N13E16 H gev_ _ /12/31 07:06:00 07:39:00 07:17:00 C1.3 S01E75 ( 933 ) Flare intensity denoted by letter class, A, B, C, M, X (least to greatest). Letter tags denote markers in plot on previous page.

23 40 hours precursor Why neutrinos? Minimum in relative count rate occurred at night, coincident with the timing of the flare (21:37 EST) Measured decay rate was trending down for ~40 hours (1.67 Earth rotations). This implies that the probable agent could pass through the Earth unimpeded. The only known particle emitted by the Sun that can do that is the neutrino.

24 Solar Neutrinos? Super-K Data Correlation = 0.38, 181 points, prob=3x Normalized Nu-flux /R 2, a.u /28/95 3/11/97 7/24/98 12/6/99 4/19/01 9/1/02 Date 7 Pt Avgd Normalized Phi-nu 1/R^2 Data from Yoo, et al., Phys Rev D 68, (2003)

25 7 Pt Avg'd Normalized BNL With Earth-Sun Distance Normalized BNL /81 02/82 09/82 03/83 10/83 04/84 11/84 06/85 12/85 07/86 1/R^2 (a.u.^2) Date Un-decayed 7pt avg USNO 1/R^2 Pearson Correlation Coefficient r=0.66, N=233, Prob=1.0x10-31 Data from: Alburger, et al., Earth and Planet. Sci. Lett., 78, (1986)

26 Raw Undecayed 226Ra PTB Data with Earth-Sun Distance Normalized 226 Ra Data /R 2 (a.u. -2 ) /23/83 3/22/84 3/22/85 3/22/86 3/22/87 3/21/88 3/21/89 3/21/90 3/21/91 3/20/92 3/20/93 3/20/94 3/20/95 3/19/96 3/19/97 3/19/98 3/19/99 3/18/ Date Normalized Undecayed USNO 1/R^2 Pearson Correlation Coefficient r=0.62, N=1974, Prob=5.13x Data from Siegert, et al., Appl. Radiat. Isot. 49, 1397 (1998) Fig. 1

27 BNL 32Si and PTB 226Ra Data with Earth-Sun Distance BNL and PTB U(t) /R 2 (a.u. -2 ) Date Raw BNL Raw PTB USNO 1/R^2 Pearson Correlation Coefficient r=0.66, N=39, Prob=5.8x10-6

28 Tritium t (days) t = 0 = 1 Jan Reference: E. D. Falkenberg, Apeiron 8 (2), 32 (2001)

29 OSURR Cl-36

30 Parkhomov, A.G., Researches of alpha and beta radioactivity at long-term observations, arxiv: v1 [physics.gen-ph], (2010)

31 Further Evidence Sub-annual periodicities

32 BNL/PTB Solar Core Period The joint power spectrum formed from the weighted-runningmean BNL and PTB power spectra. The peak is found at year -1 with J=10.34.

33 Joint Power Statistic (Rieger) The joint power statistic using the BNL and PTB power spectra. The arrows indicate the search band 2.00 yr -1 to 2.25 yr -1. The peak is found at 2.11 yr -1 with joint power statistic J =

34 From: Jenkins, J.H., et al., Concerning the Time Dependence of the Decay Rate of 137Cs. Physics Letters B, 2012(Under Review).

35

36 54 Mn Decays

37 54 Mn Half-life ( ) Literature value (NNDC, 2013): T 1/2 = (6) days Detail (Net counts): 34,442 1-hour counts days (5.03 half-lives), 1.11x10 11 events detected in full energy peak. Weighted linear fit: T 1/2 = (1) days, χ 2 /d.o.f. = 1.66 Weighted exponential fit: General model Exp1: f(x) = a*exp(b*x) Coefficients (with 95% confidence bounds): a = 1.196e+07 (1.196e+07, 1.196e+07) b = ( , ) T 1/2 = (1) days Goodness of fit: SSE: 1.707e+008 R-square: Adjusted R-square: RMSE: 70.4

38 Preliminary Results Data from 1/3/10-12/9/11 NOAA identifies solar events for the same period Our tests produced 256 decay flags Looking at the 413 strongest events, we find that 37% of the decay flags were followed by a stong solar event within 24 hours 50% of the solar events were preceded by at least one decay flag

39 Publications to date Jenkins, J.H. and E. Fischbach, Perturbation of nuclear decay rates during the solar flare of 2006 December 13. Astroparticle Physics, (6): p [DOI: /j.astropartphys ] Jenkins, J.H., et al., Evidence of Correlations Between Nuclear Decay Rates and Earth-Sun Distance. Astroparticle Physics, (1): p [DOI: /j.astropartphys ] Fischbach, E., et al., Space Science Reviews, (3): p [DOI: /s ] Jenkins, J.H., D.W. Mundy, and E. Fischbach, Nucl. Instr. and Meth. A, (2-3): p [DOI: /j.nima ] Sturrock, P.A., et al.,. Astroparticle Physics, (2): p [DOI: /j.astropartphys ] Lindstrom, R. M., et al., Nucl. Instr. and Meth. A, 622 (2010) 93. [DOI: /j.nima ] Javorsek II, D., et al., Astroparticle Physics, (3): p [DOI: /j.astropartphys ] Fischbach, E., et al., Evidence for Solar Influences on Nuclear Decay Rates. Proceedings of the Fifth Meeting on CPT and Lorentz Symmetry, editor V.A. Kostelecky, Bloomington, Indiana, USA: World Scientific, p Sturrock, P.A., et al., Solar Physics, (2): p [DOI: /s ] Sturrock, P., E. Fischbach, and J. Jenkins, Solar Physics, (1): p [DOI: /s ] Sturrock, P.A., et al., The Astrophysical Journal, (2): p. 65. [ DOI: / X/737/2/65] Lindstrom, R.M., et al., Nucl. Instr. and Meth. A, (1): p [DOI: /j.nima ] Fischbach, E et al., Astrophysics and Space Science, (1): p [DOI: /s ] Jenkins, J.H., et al., Astroparticle Physics, : p [DOI: /j.astropartphys ] Krause, D.E., et al., Astroparticle Physics, (1): p [DOI: /j.astropartphys ] Javorsek, D., et al., Astrophysics and Space Science, (1): p [DOI: /s ] Sturrock, P.A., et al., Astroparticle Physics, (11): p [DOI: /j.astropartphys ] Sturrock, P.A., et al., Astroparticle Physics, (1): p [DOI: /j.astropartphys ] O Keefe, D., et al., Astrophysics and Space Science, (2): p [DOI: /s ] Jenkins, J.H., et al., Applied Radiation and Isotopes, (0): p [DOI: /j.apradiso ]

40 Questions?