GAS TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE DENSITY IN THE EU: CEE vs NWE
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1 GAS TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE DENSITY IN THE EU: CEE vs NWE Andrey A.Konoplyanik Ekaterina Orlova, WS2 GAC / Russia-EU Informal Consultations on EU Regulatory Topics (3 rd EU Energy Package) 20th round of Informal Russia-EU Consultations on EU Regulatory Topics & 13 th meeting of the EU-Russia Gas Advisory Council s Work Stream on Internal Market Issues (WS2 GAC), Vienna, E-Control, 15 July
2 Well functioning markets vs density of infrastructure: CEE vs NWE EU internal market is in the making & not homogenous yet EU market zones have different level of competitiveness & their marketplaces of liquidity: f.i. NWE vs CEE CEC/DG COMP sees the reason for low CEE markets liquidity & competitiveness in Gazprom s non-market behaviour & thus proposes its positive discrimination within existing available infrastructure But maybe the explanation is different? Whether necessary fundamentals / prerequisites are in place in CEE to provide adequate market liquidity & competitiveness (like in NWE which marketplaces are considered EU as if already liquid TTF, NBP, - though business thinks differently see presentation of A.Wagner)? Adequate infrastructure density is (one of) such prerequisites. It provides technical opportunities for diversification, which enables competition, etc. What is comparative picture between CEE & NWE? A.Konoplyanik-E.Orlova-14 WS2 GAC/21 Consultations-Vienna
3 Total countries area, km2 EU countries areas vs gas transportation infrastructure* - almost linear correlation, BUT North-West Europe North Europe South Europe Central and Eastern Europe Total Gas Transportation Infrastructure, km * Gas trunk & distribution lines of Oil and Gas, based on the data 2011/2012, kindly provided by ENTSOG, Eurogas
4 Belgium Germany Luxembourg the Netherlands France Great Britain Denmark Austria Hungary Slovakia Slovenia Poland Czech Bulgaria Romania Croatia Greece Italy Portugal Spain Finland Sweden Ireland Gas transportation infrastructure density in the EU* (trunk lines only, km/100 km 2 ) How much will it cost and how long will it take to cover this gap in gas transportation infrastructure density between NWE and CEE to make diversification possible in CEE? North-West Europe Central and East Europe South Europe North Europe * Preliminary results of Oil and Gas, based on the data 2011/2012, kindly provided by ENTSOG A.Konoplyanik-E.Orlova-13 WS2 GAC/20 Consultations, Vienna,
5 Gas transportation infrastructure density ratio 4,0 3,5 3,0 Historically/retroactively extrapolated data NWE & CEE gas transportation infrastructure* density ratios by country (km/km 2 ): CEE in lower values Factual data the Netherlands 3,59 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 Belgium UK Germany France Austria CEE 2,36 * Gas trunk & distribution lines of Oil and Gas, based on the data 2011/2012, kindly provided by ENTSOG, Eurogas A.Konoplyanik-E.Orlova-13 WS2 GAC/20 Consultations, Vienna,
6 Gas transportation infrastructure density ratio 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 0,59-0,61 Belgium-1978 vs Poland ,23-0,24 Belgium-1970 vs Slovenia & Romania ,06 France-1970 vs Bulgaria ,37 Belgium-1973 vs Croatia CEE (2012) & corresponding NWE gas transportation infrastructure* density ratios (km/km 2 ): time gap measured by decades Historically/retroactively extrapolated data 0,98-0,99 Belgium-1986 vs Hungary,Czech ,7-0,72 Belgium-1980 vs Slovakia-2012 the Netherlands Belgium France Factual data TTF / 20 Zee / 4.5 PEG s / 2 Minimum churn rate for liquid gas market: 15 normal (generally accepted) business practice, 8 EU Gas Target Model * Gas trunk & distribution lines of Oil and Gas, based on the data 2011/2012, kindly provided by ENTSOG, Eurogas; Churn rates: ICIS Heren European Gas Hub Report October 2013
7 CEE countries (2012) Time gap between NWE & CEE gas transportation infrastructure* density ratios (years, NWE compared with CEE 2012 levels) CEE (2012) vs The Netherlands CEE (2012) vs Belgium CEE (2012) vs France Hungary, Czech have not reached 1970 level 26 2 times higher Slovakia has not reached 1970 level times higher Poland has not reached 1970 s level times higher Croatia has not reached 1970 s level Slovenia, Romania have not reached 1970 s level Bulgaria has not reached 1970 s level has not reached 1970 s level 42 * Gas trunk & distribution lines of Oil and Gas, based on the data 2011/2012, kindly provided by ENTSOG, Eurogas; Churn rates: ICIS Heren European Gas Hub Report October
8 Gas transportation infrastructure density ratio 2,5 CEE vs NWE gas transportation infrastructure* density ratios comparison (km/km 2 ): the gap seems to increase (1) Historically/retroactively extrapolated data Factual data 2,36 2,0 Belgium 1,5 1,46 1,33 1,0 0,5 0,51 0,52 0,99 0,94 0,53 Germany Hungary Slovakia 0,57 0,98 0,72 0,0 * Gas trunk & distribution lines Ovals show the periods when the historical density ratios of transport infrastructure in NWE (Belgium, Germany) correspond to the more recent levels of this ratio in CEE (Hungary, Slovakia). of Oil and Gas, based on the data 2011/2012, kindly provided by ENTSOG, Eurogas 8
9 Gas infrastructure density ratio 2,5 CEE vs NWE gas transportation infrastructure* density ratios comparison (km/km 2 ): the gap seems to increase (2) 2,3 2,1 Benelux К=2,37 1,9 1,7 1,5 1,3 1,1 0,9 0,7 0,5 Hungary Slovakia К=0,98 К=0,72 * Gas trunk & distribution lines, preliminary results of Oil and Gas, based on the data 2011/2012, kindly provided by ENTSOG, Eurogas 9
10 Gas transportation infrastructure density ratio Gas transportation infrastructure density ratio Gas transportation infrastructure* density ratios comparison, (km/km 2 ) 1,1 1, , ,98 1,10 1, , ,98 0,9 0,8 0,7 0, , , Belgium ( ) Hungary ( ) 0,90 0,80 0,70 0, , Belgium ( ) Poland ( ) Stagnation of gas transportation infrastructure density ratio in CEE after joining the EU? Is it really so? Why so??? * Gas trunk & distribution lines, preliminary results of Oil and Gas, based on the data 2011/2012, kindly provided by ENTSOG, Eurogas 10
11 Conclusions Infrastructure density is a material background/prerequisite for introducing non-discriminative competition, e.g. without: deficit of infrastructure and positive discrimination of incumbents who created existing infrastructure How much have it cost for NWE states to reach their today s levels of infrastructure density (which is considered by EU regulatory authorities as providing adequate liquidity for competitive marketplaces) from today s CEE levels? How much will it cost to CEE states to reach today s NWE infrastructure density levels to provide material background for competitive markets? Who will pay for this? How long will it take? What rules need be created in EU for this? Whether current draft amended CAM NC provides adequate regulatory rules for this? We propose to investigate and respond to this questions together within GAC/Consultations framework 11
12 Thank you for your attention Andrey A. Konoplyanik andrey@konoplyanik.ru a.konoplyanik@gazpromexport.com Ekaterina Orlova e_orlova@fief.ru
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