NCCARF 2010 Interna0onal Climate Change Adapta0on Conference Gold Coast, QLD Australia 29 June 01 July, 2010 Development of High Resolution Climatologies for Marine Protected Areas Karsten Shein 1, Catherine Marzin 2, Tess Brandon 3, Doug Pirhalla 4, Jim Hendee 5, Brian Keller 2 1. NOAA National Climatic Data Center 2. NOAA Office of National Marine Sanctuaries 3. NOAA National Oceanographic Data Center 4. NOAA National Centers for Costal Ocean Science 5. NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
In memoriam Dr. Brian David Keller April 26, 1948 March 10, 2010 2 of 18
A typical morning in the life of an MPA manager 3 of 18
Important variables? As desired by managers SST PAR ph Salinity Sea level Water quality Climate change data 4 of 18 Related variables Air temperature Air pressure Precipitation Winds Currents Cloud cover Storms
What managers really want Quickly interpreted information Pre-determined decision matrix Danger / Impact threshold forecasts What is going to happen to the ecosystem under my jurisdiction in the next week, month, year, decade? 5 of 18
But How In order to understand the future, we must first understand the past. Historical climatologies Nonlinear behavior Complex interactions Quantification of changes in space and time So what? - If we know climate is changing what can we do? Short term (monitoring, stress-reduction) Long term (mitigation, adaptation, marine spatial planning) 6 of 18
Information to Managers MPA Manager(s) Raw Data 7 of 18
Information to Managers MPA Manager(s) Raw Data 8 of 18 NOAA Na0onal Clima0c Data Center
Information to Managers Raw Data Interactive access, analysis, and decision tools MPA Manager(s) A nice hot cup of customized climate info Processing and analysis system (flow reducer) 9 of 18
Integrated Marine Protected Area Climate Tool (IMPACT) Work to develop climatologies of marine protected areas. Climate reference baseline Normals, extremes, ranges, probabilities, etc. Context of biological resources Better address climate and climate change impacts Determine spatial and temporal variability of favorable and unfavorable climatic conditions. Understand ecological response to climate change Climate tool for MPA managers Towering cumulus over FKNMS 10 of 18
South Florida Protected Areas Rookery Bay NERR 11 of 18
Data Integration Data Sources and Plaborms - NESDIS - NASA - CIMSS - NCDC - NBDC - CO- OPS C- Man, CO- OPS (NOS) - AVISO - RSS - FIU Satellite monitoring, and Modeled HDF, NetCDF,.raw, SST Shipboard Surveys and in situ monitoring ASCII, tabular Inputs Water Quality Ocean Color Climatologies- SST, SSHA, ocean color, winds, clouds, SLP, water quality Winds Clouds SSHA Output Formats Standard GeoTIFF 12 of 18 NOAA Na0onal Clima0c Data Center
A matter of scale Most climate change information is based on coarse-resolution aggregations. Localized variations and influences may be far different. To address these local-scale behaviors we must develop climate resources and information at these finer scales. 13 of 18
Satellites 14 of 18
Resolution 15 of 18 2005 maximum SST KMZ provided by NOAA CRW
In situ data Environmental observation stations in and around the Florida Keys NMS. - 75 total (29 inside FKNMS, 2 DT) - 54 currently operating (72%) - 27 (ENP) installed past year (36%) - 31 have 10yr record (41%) - 12 have 30 yr record (16%) 16 of 18 NOAA Na0onal Clima0c Data Center
Summary Work to develop climatologies of marine protected areas. Beyond means Do so at a spatial resolution that will resolve climate and ecosystem variability within an MPA. Provide integrated quantifiable information on climate and its links to ecosystem responses. Use the information to identify gaps in monitoring networks and scientific knowledge. Give managers an easy to understand climate information and assessment product. 17 of 18
Thank You http://www.coral.noaa.gov/impact Karsten Shein NOAA National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Ave Asheville, NC 28801 USA +1.828.271.4223 Karsten.Shein@noaa.gov