The Future of Marine Weather Forecasting

Transcription

1 The Future of Marine Weather Forecasting Joe Sienkiewicz Chief, Ocean Applications Branch /16/2010 ASTA 2010, Long Beach, CA

2 Outline Ocean Prediction Center Graphical Product Suite Transition to Gridded Production Increasing Arctic Focus QuikSCAT Ocean Vector Winds Lessons learned Future opportunities Oceanographic Focus Analyses and forecasts Ensemble Forecast Techniques Probabilisitc fields Extend forecast period (10 days or more) Tropical Cyclones Wave Modeling and more Ocean, wave, atmosphere 2

3 Safety of Life At Sea, 1974 Chapter IV Radio Communication GMDSS Chapter V Safety of Navigation Meteorological services 3

4 OPC mission/responsibility Protection of life and property, safety at sea, and enhancement of economic opportunity Partially fulfill U.S. responsibilities with the World Meteorological Organization and Safety of Life at Sea Convention (SOLAS) Text warning bulletins, graphic analyses and forecast products Transitioning to GRIDDED versus GRAPHICAL production Traditional focus wind and waves Expanding to operational oceanographic products Increasing guidance role in Arctic Forecast support Government incident response (USCG,NOAA) Government operations (USCG, Navy, NOAA) Science based organization 4

5 NOAA Forecast Responsibility High Seas Warning Categories 5 GALE knots Force 8/9 STORM knots Force 10/11 HURRICANE FORCE - >64 knots Force 12

6 NOAA Forecast Responsibility Wind Warning Categories GALE knots Force 8/9 STORM knotstropical Force Cyclone 10/11 Warning Categories 6 HURRICANE FORCE -TROPICAL 64 knots and STORM greater Force knots 12 Force 8-11 HURRICANE - >64 knots Force 12

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10 NWS Coastal Waters Forecasts 10

11 Grid Domains 25 km resolution do not differentiate between OFF and High Seas - meets needs of present graphical suite - covers high seas and offshore domains - basis for GRIB files

12 More than Grids Basis for legacy text products via formatter Role of forecaster changes Interact with grids not typing and drawing Economize forecast production Allow focus farther out in time Polygons for warning areas Electronic Charting displays WMO committee working on weather elements for S 57 compatibility (will include gridded info) GIS compatible formats 12

13 NOAA Increasing Arctic Focus Satellite based ice analyses

14 NWS Alaska Region and Ocean Prediction Center Arctic Web Page - Marine focused human forecast guidance - Day Oceanographic and probabilistic guidance to Day 3 GEFS Ensemble Probability winds 25 kt or higher NOAA OI SST with Ice Edge Navy NCOM Ocean Surface Current

15 Requirements Using satellite for based Mid and data High Latitude Applications Joe Sienkiewicz NOAA / NWS Ocean Prediction Center, Camp Springs, Maryland 15

16 Good bye QuikSCAT 11/23/09 NCEP Production Review Dec. 8, 2009 Ocean Prediction Center

17 High resolution Ocean Surface Vector Winds (OSVW) fully integrated into operations Twice daily near complete wind field Increased situational awareness Improved detection and warning capability Enhanced understanding of winds over oceans Allowed focus on extreme cyclones (Hurricane Force) QuikSCAT Feb 23, 2010 AGU Ocean Sciences 2010, Portland, OR 17

18 QuikSCAT Winds 0945 UTC 13 March 2006 Wind Speed in knots Pacific Cup Weather Seminar San Rafael, CA 6/26/2010

19 Geostationary Satellite Sea Surface Temperature 1c 6c 8c 15c 22c 25c Pacific Cup Weather Seminar San Rafael, CA 6/26/2010

20 Wind Speed Difference between QuikSCAT and NCEP GFS Model 0900 UTC 13 March Wind Speed difference (QuikSCAT-GFS Model) Under forecast - Over forecast Pacific Cup Weather Seminar San Rafael, CA 6/26/2010

21 Hurricane Force Extra tropical Cyclones Detection and Warning Trend using QuikSCAT WARNING CATEGORIES Pre- QSCAT50 1. GALE kt 2. STORM >48 C y 40 c l o n e 30 s QSCAT ERA 1. GALE kt 2. STORM kt 3. HURCN FORCE > 64 kt Hurricane Force Warning Initiated Dec 2000 Detection increased with: -Forecaster familiarity -Data availability -Improved resolution 12.5 km QuikSCAT available May 04 -Improved algorithm QuikSCAT Launch Jun 99 Hurricane Force Wind Warning Initiated Dec km QuikSCAT Available in N AWIPS Oct Improved wind algorithm and rain flag Oct Atlantic Pacific Totals A 289 P May 19, 2010 OVWST, Barcelona Spain 21

22 Forecaster estimated Hurricane Force cyclones Sep 09 Apr 2010 With QSCAT Atl below previous 5 yr average (43) DJFM A (32.6) 22 Pac at avg. (40.2) DJFMA (29.8) 28 *highly subjective post QuikSCAT May 19, 2010 OVWST, Barcelona Spain 22

23 Climatology 8yr Average Monthly Distribution Average number of HF cyclones (8yrs) Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Peak activity Dec, Jan Pacific Jan, Feb Atlantic Atlantic Pacific Distribution of 24hr Max Deepening Rate 8yr Totals Month Bombs Deepening Rates Explosive deepeners Bombs Pacific faster deepeners 8yr Frequency Distribution More Feb 23, 2010 AGU Ocean Sciences 2010, Portland, OR 23 Max Deepening Rate (hpa/24hr)

24 Geographic Distribution of Hurricane Force Extra-tropical Cyclones Primary impact - open ocean Do make landfall Waves impact coasts Hazard toopen Waves North Atlantic 4,000/yr container transits 1,000/yr bulkers North Pacific 6,000/yr container transits 1,500/yr bulker Feb 23, 2010 AGU Ocean Sciences 2010, Portland, OR 24

25 QuikSCAT composites of cyclones at HF Intensity Hurricane Force Wind Frequency Storm Force Wind Frequency Range rings km increments ~ 500 wind fields for composites Cyclones ~6000 km diameter asymmetric wind field HF winds ~ 1000 km S of center Feb 23, 2010 AGU Ocean Sciences 2010, Portland, OR 25 Gale Force Wind Frequency

26 Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model Results Hurricane Force Winds Successfully modeled Onset, rapidly deepening phase Bent back front, key ingredient for low level jet Meso to small synoptic scale WRF - 10m Winds 925 hpa - Frontal zones WRF Simulation Pacific Feb 2008 cyclone Need validation effort for extreme conditions!! Using results to tailor ensemble based forecast guidance Feb 23, 2010 AGU Ocean Sciences 2010, Portland, OR 26

27 Major Forecast Challenges Remain 972 HURCN FORCE 970 HURCN FORCE 48 hr forecast 991 DVLPG STORM Feb 23, 2010 Surface Analysis AGU Ocean Sciences 2010, Portland, OR 96 hr forecast 27

28 prob_f24_all90.gif Day 2/4 Cyclone Forecast Verification Track error comparable to NHC Atlantic TC error (~25 nm/12 hrs) Under predict depth and wind speed at day 4 Forecast challenges remain basically can predict a major cyclone and where intensity remains a challenge Experimenting with ensemble approach Promising but lacking representation of higher wind speeds Calibration with 10 year QuikSCAT wind speeds Evaluating 925 mb winds Ensemble wind speed probabilities 34 kt 48 kt 34 kt 48 kt F24 F96 60 kt 64 kt 60 kt 64 kt Feb 23, 2010 AGU Ocean Sciences 2010, Portland, OR 28

29 0707 UTC 23 Nov 2009 Beyond QuikSCAT ASCAT on European MetOp series Excellent operational instrument Less coverage, low bias at high winds NESDIS StAR Winds Team improving performance in high winds Indian OceanSat 2 NOAA working with ISRO for potential NRT data access Global Change Observing Mission (GCOM W2) NOAA Dual Frequency Scatterometer with JAXA AMSR 3 In discussion, requirements documents drafted Forecasters Rely on ASCAT, ship observations, satellite interpretation skills, and NWP analyses and short term forecasts However, situational awareness is reduced Feb 23, 2010 AGU Ocean Sciences 2010, Portland, OR 29

30 April 23, 2010 Forecaster tools the Quandary Satellite imagery interpretation Surface observations Result 986 STORM Reality do not know intensity ASCAT NWP Analyses/forecasts May 19, 2010 OVWST, Barcelona Spain 30

31 Using satellite based data QuikSCAT ocean winds Jason 2 Wave Heights (54 foot maximum) CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 31

32 Summary SST gradients impact wind speed Hurricane force winds more frequent than thought Better understand wind evolution in extreme ocean storms QuikSCAT and mesoscale model results agree QuikSCAT loss, forecasters have lost temporal consistency Impact to both detection and verification Forecasting conditions beyond 3 days is still difficult Resolution, predictability Mitigation efforts ongoing Optimize ASCAT Potential for NRT winds from ISRO OceanSat 2 Potential Dual Frequency Scatterometer with JAXA GCOM W2 Feb 23, 2010 AGU Ocean Sciences 2010, Portland, OR 32

33 Increasing Oceanographic Focus Satellite based analyses Numerical model predictions (Navy Coastal Ocean Model) (NOAA Real Time Ocean Forecast System) 33

34 GOES Satellite Sea Surface Temperature 34

35 RTOFS Global Example surface currents from NOAA Real Time Ocean Forecast System Global With NAVY

36 NAVY Coastal Ocean Model 36

37 Pacific Cup Weather Seminar San Rafael, CA 6/26/2010

38 Extra tropical Storm Surge Model 38

39 Hurricane Weather Research Forecast Model HYCOM Real time testing for 2008 hurricane season (Ike). subinertial waves Realistic Oceanic Simulation and Response to a Storm! Cold wake

40 Wind Against Current Can generate square breaking waves Guidance product becoming available via web NCOM and NOAA Global Forecast System Winds 40

41 Ensemble forecast approach Low positions 90 member: 50 ECMWF, 20 GFS, 20 CMC 3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 41

42 ENSEMBLE LOWs F000 3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 42

54 GALE STORM 60 kts HURRICANE FORCE CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 54

55 ENSEMBLE VISIBILITY LESS THAN 0.5 nm 3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 55

56 Tropical Cyclones 3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 56

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58 3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 58

59 3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 59

60 Hurricane Forecast Improvement GOALS Project (HFIP) 20% reduction of track and intensity error over 5 years 50% reduction of track and intensity error over 10 years with forecast to 7 days Approach address observations, physics, air-sea-wave processes 3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 60

61 OCEAN WAVES 61

62 Waves Example of present operational resolution for Cook Inlet in Alaska

63 NWW3 Wave Height Ensemble 20 members 63

64 Waves Igor in the multi grid hurricane wave model: 7.5km coastal resolution. Shallow water physics. Note shadow zones behind Bahamas and Bermuda (!). Wave system based wind sea and swell separation (from USACE)

65 Humboldt Bar Waves/Current NWS Eureka 3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 65

66 Waves /inundation Present capability illustrated with test runs for hurricane Gustav. Grid resolution up to 400m, working on 100m grids. Dynamic inundation using ADCIRC water levels.

67 Ecological Prediction Sea Nettles Cross discipline Cross organizations Inputs SST Salinity 3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 67

68 Summary Traditional marine weather services Transitioning to gridded based production Grids open up possibilities of new products Expanding into operational oceanography Optimizing data usage to improve services Satellite sources Conventional data sources (ships and buoys) Increasing use of Ensemble based information Primarily internal guidance (now) Basis for products of future Improvements to Hurricane and Wave prediction Ecological Prediction next evolution 68

69 Hurricane Force Extra tropical Cyclones Detection and Warning Trend using QuikSCAT WARNING CATEGORIES Pre- QSCAT50 1. GALE kt 2. STORM >48 C y 40 c l o n e 30 s QSCAT ERA 1. GALE kt 2. STORM kt 3. HURCN FORCE > 64 kt Hurricane Force Warning Initiated Dec 2000 Detection increased with: -Forecaster familiarity -Data availability -Improved resolution 12.5 km QuikSCAT available May 04 -Improved algorithm QuikSCAT Launch Jun 99 Hurricane Force Wind Warning Initiated Dec km QuikSCAT Available in N AWIPS Oct Improved wind algorithm and rain flag Oct Atlantic Pacific Totals A 289 P Feb 23, 2010 AGU Ocean Sciences 2010, Portland, OR 69

70 NOAA Aircraft Research Key Flight level PS dropsonde Time (UTC) SFMR WS Winter Ocean Storms Feb 4, 2010 HF drops HF SFMR High Winds Research validation set for remotely sensed winds ASCAT, OceanSat-2, future instruments NWP forecast models Instrumentation GPS dropsondes, Step Freq. Mirowave Radiometer UMASS Imaging Wind and Rain Air-borne Profiler (IWRAP) Feb 23, 2010 AGU Ocean Sciences 2010, Portland, OR 70

71 Gwynn Park Middle School Career Day 5/16/08