Income Dimension of Impact Evaluations IE principal dimensions Income Health Education Other Presented on 4 September, 2014 at ADB 3ie PIDS Conference, Manila
Impact Evaluation of Irrigation Distribution System and Management Improvement Project (IDSMIP) Project Project Background Agricultural sector in Azerbaijan The sector contributes to 15% of GDP, employs 42% of the labor force (2014). Increasing agriculture productivity is critical despite the foreign exchange earnings from the oil industry. Deteriorating irrigation and drainage infrastructure is impediment to transition to efficient agricultural sector.
Impact Evaluation of Irrigation Distribution System and Management Improvement Project Project Goal: Strengthening of the agricultural sector through increased output, productivity, and income levels. Project Purpose: to improve the effectiveness and financial viability of irrigation water distribution and management on 56,000 ha, through provision of support to Water Users Associations (WUA) and the State Amelioration and Irrigation Committee (SAIC)
Project Development Objective: (a) scaling-up user participation in irrigation management, notably through WUAs, and ensuring their professional and financial independence; (b) concentrating the investment priorities in agricultural water on improving the productivity of existing irrigation systems; (c) Promoting institutional reforms and capacity building of sector agencies responsible for irrigation system management. Irrigation Distribution System and Management Improving Project Azerbaijan
To achieve these objectives the project would primarily carry out: (a) Development of Water Users Associations (b) Rehabilitation of Irrigation and Drainage Infrastructure (22 WUAs, 56000 ha) (c) increased operational efficiency through an institutional development component. Irrigation Distribution System and Management Improving Project Azerbaijan
Purpose of Evaluation: To assess whether there has been any change in household income levels resulting from the rehabilitation of the irrigation and drainage infrastructure and WUAs strengthening. Irrigation Distribution System and Management Improving Project Azerbaijan
Improved the Inhabitants living conditions Agricultural production Incomes of local people Productivity Arable Land Logic Model Increase in Water Supply Management Skills for Irrigation and Drainage System Physical Rehabilitation of Irrigation and Drainage System Institutional WUAs Strengthening Reform Irrigation Distribution System and Management Improving Project Azerbaijan
Impact Evaluation: baseline survey conducted in 2007 and the follow-up final impact study in 2013 quasi-experimental and longitudinal design: random sampling applied, first to settlements (villages) from the project/control areas and then households within them. Result: 11 Project WUAs and 11 Non-Project WUAs and about 1000 households have been chosen. WUA performance & socio-agro-economical assessment (SPSS, FARMOD) & Customer Satisfaction Survey (Citizen Report Cards) Irrigation Distribution System and Management Improving Project Azerbaijan
Key findings 208 WUAs from total 213 registered in project rayons amount of irrigation water supplied to WUAs increased almost 2 times an average 4 irrigations has been applied according to crop water norms for main crops by 82% of water users in rehabilitated schemes (2 BL). cultivated area increased on 25% crops yields increased in average on 17.7% in R- WUAs, on 4.5% in NR-WUAs 100% collection rate of ISF for government, for Rehabilitated WUAs - 81% in average. ISF rates increased 3-5 times in comparison with 2005 The Revenue Budget increased 4.4 times in R- WUAs, 2.3% times in NR-WUAs Irrigation Distribution System and Management Improving Project Azerbaijan
Key findings In project WUAs that have benefited from rehabilitation and modernization it has been carried out 91% of the planned O&M. The Administrations of Rehabilitated WUAs have spent money for O&M from WUA budget and in average amount that is 4 times greater than in the baseline year.. 78% of farmers in Rehabilitated WUAs are satisfied with irrigation services while it was only 23% in the baseline case Irrigation Distribution System and Management Improving Project Azerbaijan
Satisfaction with Irrigation Service (% respondents) Dimension of Service Rehabilitated WUAs Non-rehabilitated WUAs Satisfied Adequacy 82.1% 58.8% Timeliness 66.3% 45.2% Equity in access 69.5% 33.2% Performance of staff 69.8% 55.7% Overall satisfaction 78.2% 34.5% Partially Satisfied Adequacy 14.7% 23.2% Timeliness 24.5% 25.6% Equity in access 23.8% 28.9% Performance of staff 24.6% 29.1% Overall satisfaction 14.7% 34.8% Dissatisfied Adequacy 3.2% 18.0% Timeliness 9.2% 29.2% Equity in access 6.7% 37.9%
Crop Model: Relevant Production and Input Parameters and Financial Results SAC MMMC Unit Value Without With project Without With project (US$) YIELDS Wheat ton 2.15 2.8 2.1 3 Fruits (existing Apple) ton 3.5 6.4 - - Fruits (new Apple) ton - 6.4 - - Cotton ton - - 1.4 2 Fodder ton 3.8 5 4.2 6 Vegetables ton 12 18 10 14 Livestock (milk) lts 868 1000 2500 3000 VALUE OF PRODUCTS Wheat US$/ton 207 462.6 603.1 452.2 646.2 Fruits (existing Apple) US$/ton 345 1207.5 2208 - - Fruits (new Apple) US$/ton 345-2208 - - Cotton US$/ton 310 - - 434 620 Fodder US$/ton 81 307.8 405 340.2 486 Vegetables US$/ton 163 2003.6 2997 1667.8 2334.5 Livestock (all) US$/ton 0.32 2079.1 2253.8 4751.3 6000.8 COST OF PRODUCTION Wheat US$/ha 322.6 322.6 319.8 324.4 Fruits (existing Apple) US$/ha 277.2 420.7 - - Fruits (new Apple) US$/ha - 420.7 - - Cotton US$/ha - - 460.7 488.1 Fodder US$/ha 305.6 321.7 294.7 314.1 Vegetables US$/ha 864.6 1034.1 788.6 952.6 Livestock (all) US$/farm 253.9 309.6 923.7 1179.5 NET REVENUES Wheat US$/ha 140 280.5 132.4 321.8 Fruits (existing Apple) US$/ha 930.3 1787.3 - - Fruits (new Apple) US$/ha - 1787.3 - - Cotton US$/ha - - -26.7 131.9 Fodder US$/ha 2.2 83.1 45.5 172.9 Vegetables US$/ha 1139 1962.9 879.2 1381.9 Livestock (all) US$/farm 1825.2 1944.3 3827.6 4821.3
Without CONCEPT (AGGREGATED DATA) Project With Project Year after works are finished): 1 to 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 10 Main Production Cereals 935 935 997 1,043 956 869 782 696 Fruits 242 242 345 483 566 690 856 1,559 Fodder 40 40 84 143 189 235 281 278 Vegetables 20 20 73 147 205 264 293 293 Livestock Products 2,079 2,079 2,166 2,254 2,254 2,254 2,254 2,254 Sub-total Main Production 3,315 3,315 3,666 4,069 4,170 4,313 4,466 5,080 On-Farm Use Fodder 19 19 30 37 37 37 37 37 Livestock Products 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 Sub-Total On-Farm Use 29 29 40 48 48 48 48 48 Net Value Of Production 3,286 3,286 3,626 4,022 4,122 4,265 4,418 5,032 Off Farm Employment Labor Costs 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 INFLOWS 3,471 3,471 3,811 4,206 4,307 4,449 4,603 5,216 Production Cost Investment Seeds - 158 166 166 166 166 8 - Chemicals - 12 27 45 45 45 33 - Machinery (including fuel) - 6 7 8 8 8 3 - Transport Costs - 1 2 4 4 4 2 - Irrigation Costs - 0 1 1 1 1 1 - Sub-total Investment Costs - 177 203 224 224 224 47 - Operating Seeds 170 170 168 167 166 164 162 150 Fodder 3 3 - - - - - - Fertilizers 39 39 37 35 34 32 29 27 Chemicals 54 54 52 51 70 89 107 145 Machinery (including fuel) 253 253 256 260 268 275 282 270 Livestock Products 41 43 43 43 44 45 44 40 Transport Costs 29 29 29 29 31 33 35 40 Irrigation Costs 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 Livestock Inputs 48 48 68 88 88 88 88 88 Sub-total Operating Costs 644 645 661 682 708 735 757 770 Sub-Total Production Cost 644 823 864 906 932 959 803 770 OUTFLOWS 644 823 864 906 932 959 803 770 Cash Flow Before Self Financing 2,827 2,648 2,947 3,300 3,375 3,490 3,800 4,446 Net Financing - -41-42 -26-27 156 41 - Cash Flow After Self Financing 2,827 2,606 2,904 3,274 3,348 3,646 3,840 4,446 Sub-Total Change in Net Worth - -179 - - - - - - Farm Family Benefits 2,827 2,427 2,904 3,274 3,348 3,646 3,840 4,446 Returns per Family-Day of Labor 36 29 32 33 32 33 34 37
Post-completion/Next Phase Follow-up Irrigation Distribution System and Management Improvement Project, IDSMIP State Program on Amelioration and Water Farm Development for 2007-2015 State Program on Social Economic Development of Regions State Program for Poverty Reduction and Sustainable Development (SPPRSD) for 2006-2015 State Oil Fund financed construction of Takhtakurpu Reservoir on 600 ml US dollars Wheat production has been subsidized 80 ml US dollars.