Crop diversification as a climate risk mitigation strategy: Farm-level evidence from Uzbekistan. Martin Petrick, Nodir Djanibekov

Transcription

1 Crop diversification as a climate risk mitigation strategy: Farm-level evidence from Uzbekistan Martin Petrick, Nodir Djanibekov Presentation delivered at IAMO Forum 2015 Halle (Saale), June 17, 2015

2 Current dominance of cotton & wheat monocultures One-sided dependence on state procurement Ecological damage due to land degradation, salinization, desertification Distorted economic incentives for farmers Problematic mobilisation of manual labour Vulnerability to water availability risks & crop failure 2

3 Annual agricultural water consumption in growing period (April September) Bukhara province Tashkent province Total water use in irrigation, km Total water use in irrigation, km Observed Average Average +/- stdev Observed Average Average +/- stdev Source: AGRIWANET database (2015). 3

4 Potential benefits of diversified cropping patterns Higher & diversified incomes for farmers, thus increasing resilience to external shocks Reduced environmental footprint Reduced & more flexible water use, thus reducing vulnerability to climate change Bobojonov et al. (2013): Options and Constraints for Crop Diversification: A Case Study in Sustainable Agriculture in Uzbekistan, Agroecology and Sustainable Food Systems 37:

5 Objectives Study actual diversification experience of farmers in two Uzbek districts, based on survey data Jondor district in Bukhara province (rural): Cotton-wheat rotation Zangiota district in Tashkent province (peri-urban): High-Value Crops (HVC) rotations 5

6 Data base 100 individual farmers in Bukhara province 150 individual farmers in Tashkent province Face-to-face interviews using standardised questionnaire Data collection in November 2014 by Nazar Business and Technology, LLC (NBT), funded by Asian Development Bank (ADB) 6

7 Summary statistics Indicator Bukhara Tashkent Farms in sample (no) Land per farm (ha) * Irrigated land (% of total) * Cotton area (% of total) * 67 0 Labour input (workers/ha) * Tractors per farm (no) * 1 0 * Median values based on survey data per province. 7

8 Land share allocated to different crops Cotton Grains Vegetables Fruits Jondor Bukhara 37.5 Zangiota Tashkent Fodder Unclassified Source: NBT/IAMO farm survey

9 Labour composition Family members Relatives & friends Hired Jondor Bukhara 5.5 Zangiota Tashkent Source: NBT/IAMO farm survey

10 Marketing channels for HVCs in Tashkent province % Potatoes Carrots Tomatoes Cabbage Grapes Plums Main marketing channel: Village consumers Village traders Middlemen from city Processor State procurememt Farmers' association Source: NBT/IAMO farm survey

11 Marketing problems for HVCs in Tashkent prov % 20 0 Potatoes Carrots Tomatoes Cabbage Grapes Plums Main marketing problems: Quality requirements No transport No buyers No price information Price regulation Unreliable middlemen No difficulties Source: NBT/IAMO farm survey

12 Gross margins for main crops in 2014 USD/ha 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 Bukhara Tashkent 0 Cotton Wheat Z Carrots Cabbage Wheat J Potatoes Tomatoes Grapes Plums Revenue level & cost components: Revenue Seeds Fertilizer Chemicals Machinery Salaries Source: NBT/IAMO farm survey

13 Water productivity by crop Value of crop output per cubic meter of irrigation water consumed in 2014 prices USD/m Cotton Wheat Potatoes Carrots Tomatoes Cabbage Grapes Plums Source: NBT/IAMO farm survey 2014, water consumption based on official irrigation norms. 13

14 Conclusions Zangiota district in Tashkent provides a real-world example for a diversified crop portfolio in Uzbekistan HVCs a highly profitable alternative to state-mandated monocultures, possibly increase shock-absorbing capacity of farmers Crop diversification increases water productivity Main constraints to crop diversification: State delivery targets for strategic crops Absent connections to city markets (middlemen) Lack of role models in traditional cotton regions 14

15 Marketing channels for wheat Village consumers 40 % Supermarket Processor State procurememt 100 Jondor Bukhara Zangiota Tashkent Source: NBT/IAMO farm survey