MBA COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE / MULTIFAMILY FINANCE QUARTERLY DATABOOK Q4 2012 12401
Copying or other redistribution of this publication in whole or in part violates U.S. copyright law as well as any applicable MBA terms of use. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the copyright owner. Disclaimer Although the MBA takes great care in producing this and all related data products, MBA does not guarantee that the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. The referenced data are provided on an as is basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever, either express or implied, including, but not limited to, any warranties of title or accuracy or any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. Use of the data is at the user s sole risk. In no event will MBA be liable for any damages whatsoever arising out of or related to the data, including, but not limited to direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential or punitive damages, whether under a contract, tort or any other theory of liability, even if MBA is aware of the possibility of such damages. 12401
MBA COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE / MULTIFAMILY FINANCE QUARTERLY DATABOOK Q4 2012
Fourth Quarter 2012 Selected Charts Month-over-month Change in At-Place Employment Thousands of jobs Treasury Yield Curve Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: Federal Reserve Board Ten-year Treasury and 10-year Swaps Percent Multifamily Permits, Starts and Completions Thousands, Seasonally adjusted annual rate Source: Federal Reserve Board Source: Census Bureau
Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations Index 2001 quarterly average = 100 Source: MBA The Commercial Real Estate/ Multifamily Finance Quarterly Data Book is a quarterly compendium of the latest MBA research on the commercial/multifamily finance markets. The latest version of the Data Book can be downloaded from the MBA website at: http://www. mortgagebankers.org/res earchandforecasts/ Commercial/Multifamily Property Sales $Billions Price Indices December 2000 = 100 Source: Real Capital Analytics Source: MBA, Moody's Investors Services, National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries, and Green Street Advisors Monthly Retail Sales Average Vacancy Rates By Property Type Source: U.S. Census Bureau Source: REIS
MBA Commercial Real Estate/ Multifamily Finance Quarterly Data Book Fourth Quarter 2012 March 29, 2013 SELECTED CHARTS... 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS... 7 1. Introduction... 9 Economic Commentary... 11 MBA Long-Term Mortgage Finance and Economic Forecasts... 14 Treasury Yields and Bank Rates... 16 Employees on Non-farm Payrolls... 18 Monthly Retail Sales... 20 Owner- and Renter-Occupied Housing Units... 23 2. COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY FINANCE Extract of Commercial Real Estate Comments from The Federal Reserve Board s Beige Book... 25 New Inventory Change Less Net Absorption for Commercial/Multifamily Properties... 29 Average Rents and Vacancy Rates at Commercial/Multifamily Properties... 31 Multifamily Building Permits, Starts and Completions... 33 Value of Construction Put-In-Place... 36 Commercial/Multifamily Property Sales Volume... 40 Commercial/Multifamily Prices and Capitalization Rates... 42 Commercial/Multifamily Property Price Indices... 44 3. Quarterly Mortgage Banker Originations Survey... 46 Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) and Commercial Real Estate Collateralized Debt Obligation (CRE CDO) Issuance... 50 American Council of Life Insurers (ACLI) Commitment Volumes... 52 4. COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE DEBT & REAL ESTATE SECURITIES Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding... 54 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Delinquencies by Investor Group... 73 Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) Outstanding... 79 Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) Spreads... 82 5. Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicers, Year-End 2012... 84 6. RECENT MBA COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY RESEARCH... 102
1. Outlook Introduction The U.S. economy recorded lackluster economic growth during the fourth quarter, but commercial real estate markets continued their trend of slow and steady revival. THE ECONOMY The U.S. economy, as measured by the real gross domestic product, grew at just 0.4 percent during the fourth quarter, tying the slowest rate of quarterly growth since 2009. The drop was driven by a decline in government spending. At the same time, employment picked up during the quarter, with the addition, on a seasonally adjusted basis, of 160,000 nonfarm jobs in October, 247,000 jobs in November and 219,000 in December. January and February continued the trend with the addition of 119,000 and 236,000 jobs respectively. Over the year, the number of occupied housing units grew by 947,000 with the addition of more than one million renter households and a decline of 106,000 owneroccupied households, although the last two quarters saw growth in both renter- and owner-occupied households. PROPERTY FUNDAMENTALS Commercial property fundamentals continued their trend of modest improvement among office, retail and certain other property types and tight and tightening conditions in multifamily apartment markets. Office vacancy rates fell from 17.2 percent in the third quarter to 17.1 in the fourth (down from a cycle high of 17.6 percent). Retail vacancies dropped from 10.8 percent to 10.7 percent (down from a cycle high of 11.1 percent). The multifamily vacancy rate, in contrast, fell from 4.7 percent in the third quarter to 4.5 percent in the fourth (down from a cycle high 8.0 percent). Asking rents rose during the quarter for all three property types, by 3 percent for apartments, 2 percent for office properties and 1 percent for retail. PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS The dollar volume of property sales transactions increased by 28 percent during 2012, from $202 billion in 2011 to $258 billion in 2012. Apartment property sales increased by 51 percent, retail properties by 23 percent, office properties by 22 percent and industrial by 7 percent. Capitalization rates were mixed. Apartment cap rates were unchanged at 6.2 percent. Industrial were unchanged at 7.8 percent. Office cap rates fell from 7.2 percent in the third quarter to 7.0 percent in the fourth. Retail cap rates rose from 7.2 percent to 7.3 percent. In terms of property prices, the Green Street Advisors CPPI which generally tracks REIT properties and represents the equity markets valuation of real estate rose 1.3 percent over the quarter and is now at 98 percent of its peak level. The NCREIF TBI which tracks transactions of generally high-quality institutional properties fell 1 percent during the quarter and is currently at 85 percent of its peak value. The Moody s/rca index which tracks a wide range of properties across a variety of markets rose 3.2 percent and now sits at 80 percent of its peak value. ORIGINATIONS ACTIVITY Commercial and multifamily mortgage originations increased 49 percent between the third and the fourth quarters of 2012, and were also up 49 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2011. MBA s commercial/multifamily mortgage bankers originations index shows originations for the full year 2012 were 24 percent higher than in 2011. Final numbers will come out in early April with MBA s Annual Origination Summation. 9
Between the third and fourth quarters of 2012, the dollar volume of loans originated for CMBS increased by 141 percent, loans for GSEs increased by 54 percent, originations for life insurance companies increased 33 percent and loans for commercial bank portfolios increased by 32 percent. In February, MBA forecast that 2013 originations will rise by 11 percent from 2012 levels. MORTGAGES The level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding increased by $21.8 billion, or 0.9 percent, in the fourth quarter of 2012, as all four major investor groups increased their holdings. On a yearover-year basis, the amount of mortgage debt outstanding at the end of 2012 was $29.7 billion higher than at the end of 2011, an increase of 1.2 percent. Multifamily mortgage debt outstanding rose to $846 billion, an increase of $11.8 billion or 1.4 percent from the third quarter, and $35.7 billion or 4.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2011. The fourth quarter saw the largest increase in commercial and multifamily mortgage debt outstanding since 2008. Bank-held commercial mortgages increased by the largest amount since 2008. The balance of loans held in CMBS rose by the most since 2007 and the balances of loans held by life companies and held or guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA continued their multi-year increases. or insured by Fannie Mae decreased 0.04 percentage points to 0.24 percent. The 90+ day delinquency rate for loans held by FDIC-insured banks and thrifts decreased 0.32 percentage points to 2.62 percent. The 30+ day delinquency rate for loans held in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) decreased 0.13 percentage points to 8.73 percent. LOAN MATURITIES In February, MBA released its latest analysis of upcoming loan maturity volumes, which found that $119.5 billion, eight percent of the outstanding balance, of commercial and multifamily mortgages held by non-bank lenders and investors will mature in 2013, a 21 percent decline from the $150.6 billion that matured in 2012 The loan maturities vary significantly by investor group. Just 5 percent ($16.0 billion) of the outstanding balance of multifamily and health care mortgages held or guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA and Ginnie Mae will mature in 2013. Life insurance companies will see 7 percent ($21.9 billion) of their outstanding mortgage balances mature in 2013. Among loans held in CMBS, 7 percent ($43.4 billion) will come due in 2013. Twenty-one percent ($38.1 billion) of commercial mortgages held by credit companies and other investors will mature in 2013. (For more information go to http://www.mortgagebankers.org/research andforecasts/productsandsurveys/loanmat urityvolumes.htm). LOAN PERFORMANCE Delinquency rates continued to decline for commercial and multifamily mortgage loans in the fourth quarter of 2012. The 60+ day delinquency rate for commercial and multifamily mortgages held in life company portfolios decreased 0.04 percentage points to 0.08 percent. The 60+ day delinquency rate for multifamily loans held or insured by Freddie Mac decreased 0.08 percentage points to 0.19 percent. The 60+ day delinquency rate for multifamily loans held 10
Economic Commentary Stronger Start to 2013 March 2013 Growth in the first quarter of 2013 has picked up after a slow fourth quarter last year due to strong inventory investment, retail sales, and less of a drag from the trade deficit. The first quarter is likely to see growth of 2.4 percent. With sequestration, across the board cuts in federal government spending, kicking in, we have lowered our estimates for the second and third quarters of 2013 as furloughs begin leading many households to have to adjust to less take home pay. This will be a small drag on growth, but overall consumer spending should continue to increase at a roughly 2 percent rate, driven by purchases of durable goods. The FOMC statement released following the March meeting was very similar to January s statement, with the Committee acknowledging the pickup in the pace of growth but also recognizing still elevated unemployment. It was also noted that fiscal policy has become more restrictive. The Committee reiterated its commitment to accommodative monetary policy, keeping the Fed Funds rate low and continuing to expand its balance sheet with month MBS and Treasury purchases. Similar to the last few statements, the Committee provided an unemployment target of 6.5 percent and inflation target of 2.5 percent. However, in Chairman Bernanke s press conference following the release of the statement, he indicated that the Fed may begin to vary the pace of asset purchases in the months ahead, decreasing purchase volumes in response to signs of economic strength, but holding on to the option to increase purchases again should growth weaken. Job growth has been accelerating over the past four months and the unemployment rate is improving more rapidly than we had previously expected. Nonfarm payroll employment in February grew by 236,000 jobs, with private payrolls increasing by 246,000 jobs and government payrolls decreasing by 10,000 jobs. The unemployment rate decreased to 7.7 percent from 7.9 percent in January. The increase in overall and private payrolls was the highest single monthly increase since November 2012. However, the January overall payroll count was revised down by 38,000 so the gain is less than it appeared. With the downward revision in January, job growth in the first two months of 2013 has averaged a little under 178,000 jobs, well below the January and February 2012 average of 291,000. However, the 4 month moving average for overall payroll growth is at 205,000 jobs, the highest since April 2012. At 7.7 percent, the unemployment rate is the lowest since December 2008. The labor force participation rate edged down to 63.5 percent from 63.6 percent in January. The participation rate was below 64 percent for all of 2012, the lowest levels seen since 1983. The U6 measure of underemployment dropped to 14.3 percent from 14.4 percent. There were fewer new and reentering workers to the work force in February but increases in discouraged workers, marginally attached workers, and long term unemployed. This suggests that mismatches still remain between the jobs that have been added to the economy and the skills of those who have been unemployed yet still seeking work. The increase in private nonfarm payrolls was driven primarily by gains in the private service providing sector which added 179,000 positions while the goods producing sector added 67,000 positions, the highest level in over a year. Within the service sector, professional and business 11
services gained 73,000 jobs, half of which originated from administrative and support services, while leisure and hospitality and education and health services added 24,000 jobs respectively. Construction accounted for most of the gain in the goods producing industry by adding 48,000 jobs, the largest monthly gain in nearly 6 years, specifically with the hiring of specialty trade contractors propelling the construction employment numbers. The government lost 10,000 positions concentrated in state and local governments. Industrial production increased by the largest margin in three months in February, driven by manufacturing and utilities. Gains compared to a year ago were also strong compared to a year ago. The overall level of production continued on an upward trend overall and was the highest since 2008. Capacity utilization, at 79.6 percent, was also the highest since 2008, but is still below the historical average of 80.7 percent. The ISM s manufacturing index for February also moved in a favorable direction, increasing to the highest level since June 2011. The index had been unimpressive in the second half of 2012, but has shown solid growth over the last two months. New orders and production drove some of that growth, along with the prices, imports, and export components. Anecdotal responses to the ISM s survey however, did note a few soft spots in the manufacturing sector, including defense spending. Housing starts rose in February and the three month moving average for total starts is at the highest level since August 2008. Starts increased across all unit types, with single family starts increasing 0.5 percent to a SAAR of 618,000 units, the highest level since July 2008, while multifamily starts increased to a SAAR of 14,000 units and 285,000 units, for 2-4 units and 5+ units respectively. The starts level improved over the past year for all housing types, particularly for single unit structures and 5 or more unit structures, which have seen positive year over year gains for at least 17 months. In a separate report, sales of existing homes increased 0.8 percent to 4.98 million units, the highest pace since November 2009, which coincides with the first implementation of the home buyer tax credit. Over the year, home sales increased 6.3 percent. Perhaps more significantly in this release, the inventory of homes available for sale increased from 1.78 million units to 1.94 million units. While this was a step towards more robust growth, the inventory level has been stuck below the 2 million mark for four months, the longest sub-2 million streak since 2000/2001. The historical average for the series is around 2.7 million units for sale. Home purchase volume in February 2013 increased 28 percent over the month and 16 percent relative to the same month last year, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. February is typically when purchase mortgage application activity rises quickly as the spring buying season begins. Compared to the previous month, purchase applications increased for all states except North Dakota. Gains were largest in Vermont, Indiana and Rhode Island. Over the year, more than three quarters of the states had increases in purchase applications. Refinance applications in February increased 3.7 percent from the previous month, but were down from last year. Refinance applications grew in the majority of states compared to January 2013, with the largest gain in Michigan, Utah and Ohio. Year over year refinance applications were split pretty evenly in terms of gains and losses among the states, although the national total still increased slightly by 0.4 percent. In a separate survey, the HARP share of refinance applications remained around 30 percent for the fourth week, which is likely keeping the flow of refinance applications in the pipeline higher than it would be without the program. We raised our forecast for both new and existing home sales given more positive data releases of late, and continue to expect that purchase originations will continue their rise while refinancing activity slows in 2013. 12
We forecast that mortgage rates will rise from 3.6 percent in Q1 to 4.3 percent by Q4. We estimate that mortgage originations totaled $1.7 trillion in 2012, and will decline to $1.4 trillion in 2013 as rates rise, and refinance originations fall. The origination forecast is based on expectations of a modest increase in economic growth in 2013 relative to 2012. We expect gross domestic product to rise 2.1 percent in 2013, driven by residential fixed investment and personal consumption expenditures. As noted earlier, housing starts and sales have been strong and will improve further in coming quarters. Despite tax increases and tighter fiscal policy overall in 2013, household spending has been resilient so far, although more significant adverse impacts might be felt later in the year as more of the budget cuts set in. We expect that growth through 2014 will be 2.5 percent. The unemployment rate should decrease more rapidly, as monthly job growth picks up and as demographic factors keep labor force participation low. The unemployment rate will decrease to 7.5 percent for all of 2013 and 6.9 percent in 2014. 13
14
15
TREASURY YIELDS AND BANK RATES Federal Reserve Statistical Release H-15 Treasury Yield Curve 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 15 1.0 0.5-3-Month 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 7-Year 10-Year Feb-13 Dec-12 Dec-11 Dec-10 Dec-09 Dec-08 Ten Year Treasury and Ten Year Swaps 8.0 7.0 60 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 - Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 10-Year Treasury 10 Year Swaps Source: Federal Reserve Board H-15 Report Yields on actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities. 16
TREASURY YIELDS AND BANK RATES Federal Reserve Statistical Release H-15 3-Month 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 7-Year 10-Year 10-Year Treasury Treasury Treasury Treasury Treasury Treasury Swap Dec-00 5.94 5.60 5.26 5.17 5.28 5.24 6.27 Dec-01 1.72 2.22 3.62 4.39 4.86 5.09 5.82 Dec-02 1.21 1.45 2.23 3.03 3.63 4.03 4.48 Dec-03 0.91 1.31 2.44 3.27 3.79 4.27 4.65 Dec-04 2.22 2.67 3.21 3.60 3.93 4.23 4.63 Dec-05 3.97 4.35 4.39 4.39 4.41 4.47 5.01 Dec-06 4.97 4.94 4.58 4.53 4.54 4.56 5.03 Dec-07 3.07 3.26 3.13 3.49 3.74 4.10 4.76 Dec-08 0.03 0.49 1.07 1.52 1.89 2.42 2.70 Dec-09 0.05 0.37 1.38 2.34 3.07 3.59 3.71 Dec-10 0.14 0.29 0.99 1.93 2.66 3.29 3.39 Dec-11 0.01 0.12 0.39 0.89 1.43 1.98 2.13 Dec-12 0.07 0.16 0.35 0.70 1.13 1.72 1.75 Feb-12 0.09 0.16 0.38 0.83 1.37 1.97 2.05 Mar-12 0.08 0.19 0.51 1.02 1.56 2.17 2.23 Apr-12 0.08 0.18 0.43 0.89 1.43 2.05 2.13 May-12 0.09 0.19 0.39 0.76 1.21 1.80 1.94 Jun-12 0.09 0.19 0.39 0.71 1.08 1.62 1.77 Jul-12 0.10 0.19 0.33 0.62 0.98 1.53 1.63 Aug-12 0.10 0.18 0.37 0.71 1.14 1.68 1.78 Sep-12 0.11 0.18 0.34 0.67 1.12 1.72 1.77 Oct-12 0.10 0.18 0.37 0.71 1.15 1.75 1.77 Nov-12 0.09 0.18 0.36 0.67 1.08 1.65 1.68 Dec-12 0.07 0.16 0.35 0.70 1.13 1.72 1.75 Jan-13 0.07 0.15 0.39 0.81 1.30 1.91 1.93 Feb-13 0.10 0.16 0.40 0.85 1.35 1.98 2.05 Change in Rate Feb- 12 to Feb- 13 0.01-0.02 0.02 (0.02) 0.01 - Source: Federal Reserve Board H-15 Report Yields on actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities. 17
EMPLOYEES ON NONFARM PAYROLLS Number of Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands of Employees Year-over-year Change 6,000 4,000 2,000 - (2,000) (4,000) (6,000) (8,000) 1990 90 1991 91 1992 92 1993 93 1994 94 1995 95 1996 96 1997 97 1998 98 1999 2000 2001 01 2002 02 2003 03 2004 04 2005 05 2006 06 2007 07 2008 08 2009 09 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total Non-Farm Service Producing Goods Producing Government Month-over-month Change 600 400 200 - (200) (400) (600) (800) (1,000) 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Service Producing Goods Producing Government Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 18
EMPLOYEES ON NONFARM PAYROLLS Number of Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands of Employees Private Private Service Goods Government Total Producing Producing Nonfarm Dec 2006 92,435 22,404 22,088 136,927 Dec 2007 93,690 21,976 22,376 138,042 Dec 2008 91,546 20,323 22,556 134,425 Dec 2009 89,107 17,786 22,480 129,373 Dec 2010 90,336 17,792 22,267 130,395 Dec 2011 92,306 18,242 21,950 132,498 Dec 2012 94,295 18,522 21,874 134,691 Feb 2012 92,771 18,365 21,944 133,080 Mar 2012 92,942 942 18,402 21,941 133,285 Apr 2012 93,056 18,408 21,933 133,397 May 2012 93,220 18,396 21,906 133,522 Jun 2012 93,284 18,410 21,915 133,609 Jul 2012 93,435 18,436 21,891 133,762 Aug 2012 93,580 18,422 21,925 133,927 Sep 2012 93,715 18,405 21,945 134,065 Oct 2012 93,916 18,421 21,888 134,225 Nov 2012 94,129 18,464 21,879 134,472 Dec 2012 94,295 18,522 21,874 134,691 Jan 2013 94,394 18,563 21,853 134,810 Feb 2013 94,573 18,630 21,843 135,046 Percent change Feb 2012 to Feb 2013 1.9% 1.4% -0.5% 1.5% Change Year-over-year Dec 2006 1,835 27 209 2,071 Dec 2007 1,255 (428) 288 1,115 Dec 2008 (2,144) (1,653) 180 (3,617) Dec 2009 (2,439) (2,537) (76) (5,052) Dec 2010 1,229 6 (213) 1,022 Dec 2011 1,970 450 (317) 2,103 Dec 2012 1,989 280 (76) 2,193 Month-over-month Feb 2012 214 51 6 271 Mar 2012 171 37 (3) 205 Apr 2012 114 6 (8) 112 May 2012 164 (12) (27) 125 Jun 2012 64 14 9 87 Jul 2012 151 26 (24) 153 Aug 2012 145 (14) 34 165 Sep 2012 135 (17) 20 138 Oct 2012 201 16 (57) 160 Nov 2012 213 43 (9) 247 Dec 2012 166 58 (5) 219 Jan 2013 99 41 (21) 119 Feb 2013 179 67 (10) 236 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 19
MONTHLY RETAIL SALES Seasonally Adjusted Retail sales, excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers, $millions 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2006 - Jan 2006 - Jul 2007 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2008 - Jan 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2009 - Jul 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2011 - Jan 2011 - Jul 2012 - Jan 2012 - Jul 2013 - Jan Year-Over-Year % Change in Trailing three month retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and parts delears 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 2006 - Jan 2006 - Jul 2007 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2008 - Jan 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2009 - Jul 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2011 - Jan 2011 - Jul 2012 - Jan 2012 - Jul 2013 - Jan Source: U.S. Census Bureau 20
MONTHLY RETAIL SALES Seasonally Adjusted By Kind of Business, $millions General Merchandise Food and Beverage Stores 56,000 54,000 52,000 50,000 48,000 46,000 44,000 42,000 40,000 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jan 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jan 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jan Building Materials 2008 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jan Health and Personal Care Stores 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jan Clothing & Accessories 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jan Source: U.S. Census Bureau 21
MONTHLY RETAIL SALES Seasonally Adjusted By Kind of Business, $millions Total excludes motor vehicle and parts dealers Selected Businesses General Food & Building Health & Clothing & Total % Change Merchandise Beverage Materials Personal Accessories Year- Over- Year 2000 402,513 443,717 229,655 155,188 167,112 2,184,210 6.91% 2001 427,401 462,842 238,506 166,687 167,593 2,246,409 2.85% 2002 447,574 465,366 248,193 180,157 172,308 2,311,119 2.88% 2003 468,894 474,690 263,079 192,514 178,417 2,420,731 4.74% 2004 495,736 488,988 293,754 198,704 189,393 2,597,149 7.29% 2005 528,149 508,245 320,801 210,247 200,233 2,800,375 7.82% 2006 554,367 525,838 335,206 223,717 212,945 2,977,168 6.31% 2007 579,084 548,292 320,787 237,243 221,547 3,090,809 3.82% 2008 596,544 568,700 303,382 246,089 217,235 3,155,683 2.10% 2009 592,144 569,049 266,703 253,241 204,951 2,954,762-6.37% 2010 608,210 582,239 267,341 261,146 213,520 3,093,486 4.69% 2011 630,377 614,013 279,207 272,927 226,310 3,329,588 7.63% 2012 632,181 633,698 294,158 274,678 238,627 3,464,003 4.04% Month- over- Month 2012 - Feb 52,932 52,130 24,495 22,939 19,872 286,711 0.54% 2012 - Mar 53,388 52,449 25,339 22,970 19,820 289,413 0.94% 2012 - Apr 52,791 52,582 24,531 23,031 19,515 287,280-0.74% 2012 - May 52,689 52,523 24,006 22,921 19,683 286,318-0.33% 2012 - Jun 52,536 52,621 23,504 22,618 19,826 283,780-0.89% 2012 - Jul 52,606 52,886 23,897 22,975 19,957 286,459 0.94% 2012 - Aug 52,702 52,705 24,286 22,874 20,017 289,208 0.96% 2012 - Sep 52,522 53,243 24,940 22,790 20,109 292,317 1.08% 2012 - Oct 52,388 53,475 24,598 22,788 20,049 292,666 0.12% 2012 - Nov 52,032 53,347 24,884 22,794 20,109 292,151-0.18% 2012 - Dec 51,759 53,566 25,113 23,069 20,293 292,543 0.13% 2013 - Jan 51,866 53,596 25,314 23,115 20,446 294,023 0.51% 2013 - Feb 52,101 54,006 25,603 23,120 20,481 297,868 1.31% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 22
Change in Owner- and Renter-Occupied Housing Units Thousands of Units Year-over-year Change 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - (1,000) (2,000) (3,000) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Change in Renter-occupied Units Change in Owner-occupied Units Quarter-over-quarter Change 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - (1,000) (2,000) (3,000) (4,000) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Change in Renter-occupied Units Change in Owner-occupied Units Source: MBA, U.S. Census Bureau and Haver Analytics 23
Owner- and Renter-Occupied Housing Units Thousands of Units at End-of-period Number of Occupied Units Year-over-year Change Total Owner Renter Total Owner Renter 1990 91,728 58,798 32,930 750 754 (4) 1991 92,691 59,508 33,183 963 710 253 1992 93,980 60,523 33,457 1,289 1,015 274 1993 95,717 61,450 34,267 1,737 927 810 1994 96,797 62,144 34,653 1,080 693 387 1995 97,545 63,502 34,043 748 1,358 (610) 1996 98,421 64,367 34,054 876 866 10 1997 99,743 65,531 34,212 1,322 1,164 158 1998 101,115 67,140 33,975 1,372 1,609 (237) 1999 102,330 68,459 33,871 1,215 1,318 (103) 2000 103,646 70,010 33,635 1,315 1,551 (236) 2001 104,698 71,230 33,468 1,053 1,220 (167) 2002 105,759 72,187 33,572 1,061 957 104 2003 106,505 73,091 33,414 746 904 (158) 2004 108,735 75,233 33,502 2,230 2,142 88 2005 110,281 76,119 34,162 1,546 886 660 2006 111,096 76,544 34,552 815 425 390 2007 111,724 75,720 36,003 627 (824) 1,451 2008 111,823 75,465 36,358 100 (255) 355 2009 112,485 75,537 36,948 662 72 590 2010 113,439 75,413 38,026 954 (124) 1,078 2011 114,086 75,315 38,772 648 (98) 746 2012 115,033 75,209 39,825 947 (106) 1,053 Quarter-over-quarter Change 2010 - Q4 113,439 75,413 38,026 504 (116) 621 2011 - Q1 113,111 75,092 38,018 (328) (321) (8) 2011 - Q2 113,391 74,706 38,684 280 (386) 666 2011 - Q3 113,548 75,251 38,298 157 545 (386) 2011 - Q4 114,086 75,315 38,772 538 64 474 2012 - Q1 114,123 74,602 39,522 37 (713) 750 2012 - Q2 114,200 74,832 39,369 77 230 (153) 2012 - Q3 114,695 75,076 39,619 495 244 250 2012 - Q4 115,033 75,209 39,825 338 133 206 Source: MBA, U.S. Census Bureau and Haver Analytics 24
2. Commercial/Multifamily Finance Environment Extract of Commercial Real Estate Comments from the Federal Reserve Board s Beige Book March 6, 2013 Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and based on information collected on or before February 22, 2013. This document summarizes comments received from businesses and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials. NATIONAL SUMMARY Overall commercial real estate conditions were mixed or slightly improved in most Districts. Commercial real estate activity grew modestly in the Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, and St. Louis Districts, and activity in the San Francisco District expanded. Boston and New York reported mixed activity, while the Kansas City and Dallas Districts noted few changes. Although some modest growth was reported in the Chicago District, the level of activity remained weak, and commercial contractors in the Cleveland District noted a slowing in activity, particularly for defense-related projects. Office vacancy rates declined across most of the New York District, and industrial vacancy rates in upstate New York posted their lowest levels in three years. Richmond contacts described the supply of Class A office space as tight, which they attributed to the absence of new construction. Commercial development and leasing activity increased in the San Francisco Bay and Seattle markets, fueled by sustained growth in the technology sector. Commercial construction improved by varying degrees in the Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and Kansas City Districts. Respondents in the Boston District expressed concerns about overbuilding in Boston's apartment market and office sector, while Philadelphia contacts noted an increase in energy-related projects and repair work resulting from Hurricane Sandy. Cleveland, Atlanta, and Chicago reported high demand for manufacturing space, with some Chicago manufacturers leasing temporary space to accommodate increased demand. Credit for commercial development and transactions was widely available, although Boston noted a large decline in loan demand and contacts in the Cleveland District said financing difficulties continued. FIRST DISTRICT BOSTON Contacts across the First District offer somewhat mixed reports concerning recent activity and the outlook, but note that fundamentals are largely unchanged since the last report. Leasing interest picked up slightly in Hartford in recent weeks but has not resulted in an increase in completed lease deals nor in significant absorption. In Boston, leasing inquiries remain steady. One Boston contact notes that tenants express little urgency to sign deals while another says that absorption increased slightly in recent weeks. In Providence, leasing activity picked up from last time and Class A downtown office vacancies fell to just under 9 percent from roughly 15 percent a year earlier. A Portland contact reports that leasing activity is stable and office rents unchanged since the last report, notwithstanding some newly announced plant closings in the region that will result in layoffs. Investment sales reportedly picked up in both Hartford and Providence as some investors were priced out of primary markets such as Boston. Across the region, multifamily structures remain the favored investment class, but high quality office and industrial structures are also seeing healthy demand. More properties are coming up for sale in response to rising prices. Some contacts are concerned that the high sales 25
prices for premier properties in Boston are increasingly out of line with fundamentals. A regional lender notes a significant decline in loan demand for commercial properties since December and cites as possible reasons a temporary decline in the bank's marketing efforts together with a general climate of economic uncertainty. Respondents raise concerns about overbuilding in Boston's apartment market and possibly also in its office sector. While current office construction in Boston is preleased rather than speculative, one contact notes that the intended tenants will nonetheless generate significant vacancies at their current locations in other parts of the city. The outlook is largely unchanged in Portland and Boston, calling for a continuation of slow growth. Upside risks to absorption are cited for both Hartford and Providence, while contacts in both Boston and Hartford note downside macroeconomic risks as a threat to commercial real estate markets. SECOND DISTRICT NEW YORK Commercial real estate markets across the District were mixed but generally firmer since the last report. Office vacancy rates declined across most of the District, though rents in most areas continued to run below year-ago levels. Manhattan's office market was particularly robust, with vacancy rates continuing to decline and asking rents up 4 percent from a year ago. In northern New Jersey and in the Buffalo, Albany and Syracuse metro areas, vacancy rates have declined since the start of the year, but rents continue to run 1-3 percent below early 2012 levels. However, office markets in Westchester and Fairfield counties have been increasingly slack, with vacancy rates climbing to new highs and rents slipping roughly 4 percent over the past year. Market conditions in metro Rochester have been essentially flat. Industrial markets have shown some signs of firming. In northern New Jersey, Long Island, Westchester and Fairfield counties, industrial vacancy rates have been steady since the beginning of the year, while rents are running 2-4 percent ahead of comparable 2012 levels. Industrial vacancy rates across upstate New York have continued to decline, reaching their lowest levels in three years, while rents have also drifted down. THIRD DISTRICT PHILADELPHIA Nonresidential real estate contacts reported continued modest growth in overall leasing activity and continued slight growth in construction. Contacts report that construction and repair work have grown, prospect activity has gained momentum and resolve, and money has been flowing more freely for investments. Current activity and prospects are emerging from recently quiet sectors, including some land development projects and retail, in particular, large warehouse facilities for national retailers. Activity is heating up in energy-related projects, with some repair work resulting from Hurricane Sandy. Contacts were decidedly more upbeat about future prospects, stating that the trends "feel sustainable." FOURTH DISTRICT CLEVELAND Nonresidential contractors experienced some slowing in business activity, when compared to the fourth quarter of last year. Margins are still tight and inquiries were down slightly. Builders noted that stress on government budgets is choking the supply of projects, especially defense-related. One contractor stated that uncertainty has eased somewhat and the number of potential clients is growing. But transforming proposals into signed contracts remains challenging, which is due in part to difficulty in obtaining financing. Project work is found mainly in manufacturing, distribution, and large multifamily developments. Our contacts are cautious about near-term activity and expect slow to moderate growth, mainly from private- sector clients. FIFTH DISTRICT RICHMOND Commercial real estate and construction markets improved somewhat since our last report. A developer in the Carolinas said that leasing activity continued at a reasonably healthy pace, while a Richmond 26
Realtor stated that tenants were trying to hedge based on the economy. He noted that companies didn't want to commit to more than a five-year lease with the right to cancel at three years. Most contacts continued to describe the supply of Class A office space as tight, which they attributed to the absence of new construction. Several Realtors reported that rental rates had firmed in the market with property owners keeping rents firm and minimizing concessions. A source in Charleston, South Carolina cited heightened industrial sales due to attractive lending rates. He indicated that vacancy rates had declined and that a couple of build-to-suit projects had positive absorption. SIXTH DISTRICT ATLANTA Contacts cited improvements in District commercial real estate markets but the recovery continued to unfold slowly. Multifamily projects dominated reports, although it was also noted that manufacturers were expanding their facilities. Commercial contractors reported that construction improved modestly from late last year. Commercial brokers indicated that demand improved as well. Rents stabilized by most accounts and tenants were seeking longer lease deals. Investors still have a strong interest in core markets, though there has been some indication that some have started to turn to secondary markets in the region. SEVENTH DISTRICT CHICAGO Although there was some modest growth in nonresidential construction, the level of activity remains weak. Notably, while some new projects are slated to break ground, growth in commercial and office space is expected to remain below trend for some time. However, contacts did note that construction of private-practice facilities close to affiliated hospitals is an area of strength in this segment. Commercial real estate leasing activity was generally unchanged--rents held steady, while vacancy rates continued to come down slowly. In contrast, some manufacturers were reportedly leasing temporary space in order to accommodate increased demand. EIGHTH DISTRICT ST. LOUIS Commercial and industrial real estate markets improved modestly throughout most of the District. Contacts in Louisville reported that office asking rents increased during the fourth quarter of 2012, while contacts in Little Rock noted that office vacancy rates decreased. A contact in St. Louis reported strong office leasing and industrial sales activity. A contact in Memphis reported stable commercial real estate conditions. Commercial and industrial construction activity continued to strengthen throughout most of the District. A contact in northeast Mississippi noted that commercial construction and renovation activity increased in the fourth quarter of 2012. Contacts in St. Louis noted a few commercial construction projects underway and plans for a speculative industrial building project. Contacts in Louisville reported several ongoing commercial construction projects in Bowling Green. NINTH DISTRICT MINNEAPOLIS Commercial construction activity increased at a robust pace since the last report. A real estate forecasting firm expects 600,000 square feet of industrial construction in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area in 2013 compared with 200,000 square feet in 2012. Some of that construction is speculative. Commercial real estate markets continued to strengthen. A major commercial real estate firm forecast that Minneapolis-St. Paul area office vacancy rates will drop to 15.5 percent by the end of 2013 compared with 17.6 percent at the end of 2012. The same firm forecast industrial vacancy rates to drop to 7.6 percent from 8.5 percent. TENTH DISTRICT KANSAS CITY Commercial real estate sales, prices, rents and vacancy rates were all unchanged since the last survey period. However, new construction was much improved compared to a year ago and contacts expected new construction to continue to improve in the coming months. Interest rates on commercial and industrial loans continued to show moderate declines. Most bankers reported improved loan quality compared to a year ago, and they also expected the 27
outlook for loan quality to either improve or remain about the same over the next six months. ELEVENTH DISTRICT DALLAS Demand for commercial space remained moderate since the last report. Contacts said real estate investment activity continues to improve, and most remain optimistic in their outlooks. TWELFTH DISTRICT SAN FRANCISCO Commercial real estate development and leasing activity increased, particularly in the San Francisco Bay Area and Seattle markets, fueled by sustained growth in the technology sector. Commercial rental rates increased in various parts of the District. 28
NET INVENTORY CHANGE/NET ABSORPTION COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES Net Absorption (Thousands of Square Feet) 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 Office Retail Apartment Net Inventory Change (Thousands of Square Feet) 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 Office Retail Apartment Source: REIS 29
COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES NET INVENTORY CHANGE LESS NET ABSORPTION THOUSANDS OF SQUARE FEET Calendar Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year YTD Q4 APARTMENT 2002 76,558 22,952 9,087 39,590 148,187 148,187 2003 54,553 (7,445) (10,381) 27,858 64,585 64,585 2004 27,224 (24,225) (20,472) 3,337 (14,136) (14,136) 2005 (6,228) (20,131) (57,423) (12,080) (95,862) (95,862) 2006 11,123 (23,851) (13,943) 38,538 11,867 11,867 2007 19,335 (19,332) (14,686) 9,830 (4,853) (4,853) 2008 24,525 15,695 9,298 50,108 99,626 99,626 2009 64,784 35,266 17,797 20,566 138,413 138,413 2010 1,739 (17,456) (71,245) (45,176) (132,138) (132,138) 2011 (37,816) (31,488) (26,419) (37,708) (133,431) (133,431) 2012 (26,686) (17,127) (7,764) (21,119) (72,696) (72,696) OFFICE 2002 42,606 23,707 17,453 15,574 99,340 99,340 2003 13,626 11,394 8,539 8,093 41,652 41,652 2004 (201) (1,996) (5,895) (12,298) (20,390) (20,390) 2005 (11,483) (21,652) (15,582) (16,844) (65,561) (65,561) 2006 (19,558) (13,917) (13,385) (5,483) (52,343) (52,343) 2007 (10,008) (11,669) (9,309) 5,429 (25,557) (25,557) 2008 11,244 13,636 24,037 31,506 80,423 80,423 2009 30,430 32,272 24,940 17,468 105,110 105,110 2010 14,748 4,982 7,264 (234) 26,760 26,760 2011 (1,131) (1,567) (2,390) (1,921) (7,009) (7,009) 2012 (4,295) (1,533) (1,745) (3,154) (10,727) (10,727) RETAIL 2002 4,956 (717) 438 123 4,800 4,800 2003 (1,337) 234 2,434 (512) 819 819 2004 1,007 (1,368) (1,383) (205) (1,949) (1,949) 2005 102 (3,892) 1,390 1,448 (952) (952) 2006 2,549 43 2,660 2,267 7,519 7,519 2007 1,486 2,644 1,564 3,825 9,519 9,519 2008 5,331 9,094 6,474 10,395 31,294 31,294 2009 11,788 11,282 6,052 5,580 34,702 34,702 2010 3,540 2,591 1,229 383 7,743 7,743 2011 (396) 1,649 1,132 (1,167) 1,218 1,218 2012 (1,502) (1,297) (772) (1,377) (4,948) (4,948) Source: REIS 30
AVERAGE RENTS AND VACANCY RATES AT COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES Average Rents $/Sq Ft $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $/Month 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 $0 2002Q1 2002Q3 2003Q1 2003Q3 2004Q1 2004Q3 2005Q1 2005Q3 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 0 Office Retail Apartment (Right Scale) Average Vacancy Rates percent 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2002Q1 2Q1 2002Q3 2Q3 2003Q1 2003Q3 2004Q1 2004Q3 2005Q1 2005Q3 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 0Q1 2010Q3 0Q3 2011Q1 1Q1 2011Q3 1Q3 2012Q1 2Q1 2012Q3 2Q3 Office Retail Apartment Source: REIS 31
AVERAGE RENTS AND VACANCY RATES AT COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES Average Asking Rents Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Average Vacancy Rates (percent) Q4 Yearoveryear % change Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q4 Yearover-year change APARTMENT (per month) 2002 $ 877 $ 880 $ 886 $ 889 5.6 5.8 5.9 6.3 2003 $ 892 $ 894 $ 897 $ 902 1% 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.9 0.6 2004 $ 904 $ 909 $ 917 $ 921 2% 7.2 6.9 6.7 6.7-0.2 2005 $ 925 $ 930 $ 938 $ 944 2% 6.6 6.4 5.8 5.7-1.0 2006 $ 952 $ 962 $ 975 $ 982 4% 5.9 5.6 5.5 5.8 0.1 2007 $ 991 $ 1,002 $ 1,015 $ 1,026 4% 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.7-0.1 2008 $ 1,035 $ 1,046 $ 1,052 $ 1,050 2% 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.7 1.0 2009 $ 1,045 $ 1,039 $ 1,033 $ 1,026-2% 7.4 7.7 7.9 8.0 1.3 2010 $ 1,028 $ 1,032 $ 1,038 $ 1,043 2% 8.0 7.8 7.1 6.6-1.4 2011 $ 1,047 $ 1,053 $ 1,060 $ 1,064 2% 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.2-1.4 2012 $ 1,070 $ 1,082 $ 1,091 $ 1,097 3% 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.5-0.7 OFFICE (per sq. ft) 2002 $ 25.55 $ 25.21 $ 24.95 $ 24.76 14.7 15.3 15.7 16.0 2003 $ 24.45 $ 24.17 $ 24.01 $ 23.89-4% 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.0 1.0 2004 $ 23.76 $ 23.71 $ 23.70 $ 23.70-1% 17.0 16.9 16.7 16.4-0.6 2005 $ 23.80 $ 23.95 $ 24.11 $ 24.30 3% 16.1 15.5 15.1 14.7-1.7 2006 $ 24.64 $ 25.02 $ 25.47 $ 26.00 7% 14.2 13.9 13.5 13.4-1.3 2007 $ 26.65 $ 27.39 $ 27.99 $ 28.50 10% 13.1 12.8 12.5 12.6-0.8 2008 $ 28.98 $ 29.24 $ 29.37 $ 29.18 2% 12.9 13.2 13.8 14.5 1.9 2009 $ 28.78 $ 28.39 $ 28.11 $ 27.79-5% 15.2 16.0 16.6 17.0 2.5 2010 $ 27.58 $ 27.53 $ 27.50 $ 27.53-1% 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.6 0.6 2011 $ 27.66 $ 27.73 $ 27.85 $ 27.97 2% 17.6 17.5 17.5 17.4-0.2 2012 $ 28.10 $ 28.17 $ 28.24 $ 28.47 2% 17.3 17.2 17.2 17.1-0.3 RETAIL (per sq. ft) 2002 $ 16.38 $ 16.47 $ 16.58 $ 16.68 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.3 2003 $ 16.76 $ 16.86 $ 16.98 $ 17.14 3% 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.2-0.1 2004 $ 17.22 $ 17.33 $ 17.49 $ 17.62 3% 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.0-0.2 2005 $ 17.74 $ 17.88 $ 18.06 $ 18.22 3% 7.0 6.7 6.8 6.8-0.2 2006 $ 18.35 $ 18.50 $ 18.73 $ 18.92 4% 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.1 0.3 2007 $ 19.08 $ 19.23 $ 19.33 $ 19.46 3% 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.5 0.4 2008 $ 19.54 $ 19.60 $ 19.59 $ 19.52 0% 7.7 8.1 8.4 8.9 1.4 2009 $ 19.40 $ 19.27 $ 19.21 $ 19.13-2% 9.5 10.0 10.3 10.6 1.7 2010 $ 19.06 $ 19.01 $ 19.01 $ 18.99-1% 10.8 10.9 10.9 11.0 0.4 2011 $ 18.97 $ 18.97 $ 18.97 $ 18.98 0% 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.0 0.0 2012 $ 19.00 $ 19.03 $ 19.05 $ 19.08 1% 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.7-0.3 Source: REIS 32
MULTIFAMILY BUILDING PERMITS, STARTS AND COMPLETIONS Thousands of Units Permitted, Started and Completed in Structures with 5 or More Units, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 1968 to present 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1968 1969 1971 1972 1974 1975 1977 1979 1980 1982 1983 1985 1987 1988 1990 1991 1993 1994 1996 1998 1999 2001 2002 2004 2006 2007 2009 2010 2012 Completions 5+ Permits 5+ Starts 5+ Median Starts 1997-2007 (300.5) 1996 to present 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Completions 5+ Permits 5+ Starts 5+ Median Starts 1997-2007 (300.5) Source: U.S. Census Bureau 33
MULTIFAMILY BUILDING PERMITS, STARTS AND COMPLETIONS Number of Units Permitted, Started and Completed in Structures with 5 or More Units, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Thousands of Units Percent Change Permits Starts Completions Permits Starts Completions Year-over-year 2000 329 299 305-6.2% -2.4% 1.8% 2001 335 293 281 1.8% -2.1% -7.8% 2002 341 308 288 1.8% 5.2% 2.6% 2003 346 315 261 1.3% 2.4% -9.5% 2004 366 303 287 5.9% -3.9% 10.0% 2005 389 311 258 6.3% 2.8% -10.1% 2006 384 293 284-1.3% -6.0% 10.2% 2007 359 277 253-6.5% -5.3% -11.0% 2008 295 266 277-17.7% -4.1% 9.6% 2009 121 97 260-59.0% -63.4% -6.3% 2010 135 104 147 11.7% 7.2% -43.6% 2011 184 167 130 36.0% 60.4% -11.3% 2012 277 234 158 50.3% 39.8% 21.3% Month-over-month Feb 2012 204 240 136-3.8% 24.4% -2.9% Mar 2012 281 215 136 37.7% -10.4% 0.0% Apr 2012 226 234 170-19.6% 8.8% 25.0% May 2012 272 178 121 20.4% -23.9% -28.8% Jun 2012 248 215 131-8.8% 20.8% 8.3% Jul 2012 271 211 198 9.3% -1.9% 51.1% Aug 2012 263 205 181-3.0% -2.8% -8.6% Sep 2012 313 245 140 19.0% 19.5% -22.7% Oct 2012 278 281 203-11.2% 14.7% 45.0% Nov 2012 304 261 146 9.4% -7.1% -28.1% Dec 2012 308 347 143 1.3% 33.0% -2.1% Jan 2013 294 283 151-4.5% -18.4% 5.6% Feb 2013 316 285 130 7.5% 0.7% -13.9% Percent change Feb 2012 to Feb 2013 54.9% 18.8% -4.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 34
NEW PRIVATELY OWNED HOUSING UNITS STARTED, BY PURPOSE Thousands of Units 1- Units in Buildings with 2 or More Units Quarter TOTAL Family Units Total For Rent For Sale Percent for Rent 2006Q1 464 382 82 42 39 51% 2006Q2 521 433 88 46 42 52% 2006Q3 457 372 85 48 37 56% 2006Q4 358 278 80 47 33 59% 2007Q1 322 260 62 38 24 61% 2007Q2 410 333 77 42 35 55% 2007Q3 350 265 85 48 37 56% 2007Q4 272 188 84 60 24 71% 2008Q1 231 162 69 52 17 75% 2008Q2 283 194 89 67 22 75% 2008Q3 237 163 74 54 20 73% 2008Q4 154 103 51 43 8 84% 2009Q1 114 78 36 31 5 86% 2009Q2 154 124 30 25 5 83% 2009Q3 162 138 24 19 5 79% 2009Q4 124 105 19 16 3 84% 2010Q1 134 114 20 16 4 80% 2010Q2 172 142 30 26 4 87% 2010Q3 161 119 42 36 6 86% 2010Q4 120 96 24 21 3 88% 2011Q1 126 90 36 30 6 83% 2011Q2 164 123 41 38 3 93% 2011Q3 171 118 53 48 5 91% 2011Q4 149 100 49 44 5 90% 2012Q1 154 105 49 45 4 92% 2012Q2 209 151 58 53 5 91% 2012Q3 214 150 64 57 7 89% 2012Q4 202 128 74 67 7 91% Thousands of units 100 90 2+ unit for sale 80 2+ unit for rent 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 35
Value of Commercial Real Estate Construction Put- In-Place January 2013 Data The value of selected commercial real estate (CRE)-related private construction put-inplace decreased in the month of January, but was higher than the pace of construction in January 2012. The $191.5 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate in January was 0.2 percent lower than the December rate, but 14 percent higher than the January 2012 pace. The pace of construction in January was 31% higher than its recession low and 39% below its pre-recession high. Private MULTIFAMILY new construction activity continued to increase in January. January s seasonally adjusted annual pace of $26.5 billion was 1.7 percent higher than December s $26.0 billion and 55 percent higher than last January s rate. The pace of construction in January was 103% higher than its recession low and 52% below its pre-recession high. adjusted annual pace of $44.9 billion was 3.0 percent higher than last January s rate. The pace of construction in January was 30% higher than its recession low and 50% below its pre-recession high. The value of LODGING construction put-inplace decreased in January. January s seasonally adjusted annual pace of $10.3 billion was 13.3 percent higher than last January s rate. The pace of construction in January was 31% higher than its recession low and 73% below its pre-recession high. The value of MANUFACTURING construction put-in-place fell 2.9 percent in January. January s seasonally adjusted annual pace of $50.6 billion was 13.1 percent higher than last January s rate. The pace of construction in January was 72% higher than its recession low and 22% below its pre-recession high. The value of private OFFICE construction put-in-place increased slightly 0.9 percent in January. January s seasonally adjusted annual pace of $29.9 billion was 26.2 percent higher than last January s rate. The pace of construction in January was 39% higher than its recession low and 49% below its pre-recession high. The value of private HEALTH CARE construction put-in-place increased 2.9 percent in January. January s seasonally adjusted annual pace of $29.4 billion was 1.9 percent lower than last January s rate. The pace of construction in January was 8% higher than its recession low and 27% below its pre-recession high. The value of private RETAIL, WHOLESALE AND SELECTED SERVICES (referred to as COMMERCIAL by the Census Bureau) construction put-in-place increased 0.6 percent in January. January s seasonally 36
VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION PUT-IN-PLACE Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Value of Selected Private CRE-Related Construction Put-In-Place, $millions 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2000 - Jan 2001 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2003 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2005 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jan Year-Over-Year % Change in Trailing Three Month Selected Private CRE-Related Construction 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 2000 - Jan 2001 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2003 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2005 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jan Source: MBA, U.S. Census Bureau 37
VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION PUT-IN-PLACE Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Value of Selected Private CRE-Related Construction Put-In-Place, $millions Multi family Commercial (e.g. retail & warehouse) 60,000 100,000 50,000 80,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 60,000 40,000 10,000 20,000 0 0 Office Manufacturing 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Lodging Health Care 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2000 Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2000 Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan Source: MBA, U.S. Census Bureau 38
VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION PUT-IN-PLACE Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Value of Selected Private CRE-Related Construction Put-In-Place, $millions Selected Private CRE-Related Types of Construction Multifamily Commercial Office Lodging Health Care Manufacturing Total % Change Month-over- Month 2011 - Jan 13,452 35,419 21,979 7,974 27,125 29,525 135,474-4.7% 2011 - Feb 13,324 36,061 21,535 7,994 28,110 31,892 138,916 2.5% 2011 - Mar 13,690 36,906 21,633 8,140 28,330 35,062 143,761 3.5% 2011 - Apr 13,800 38,560 21,631 7,838 27,641 33,294 142,764-0.7% 2011 - May 13,634 39,940 22,894 7,968 27,357 38,292 150,085 5.1% 2011 - Jun 14,582 40,929 23,366 8,408 28,804 43,825 159,914 6.5% 2011 - Jul 15,199 41,713 22,967 7,852 29,082 41,479 158,292-1.0% 2011 - Aug 15,931 42,494 23,156 8,089 28,972 44,214 162,856 2.9% 2011 - Sep 15,168 40,923 22,645 8,238 29,503 46,497 162,974 0.1% 2011 - Oct 15,552 41,129 23,003 8,176 28,577 45,410 161,847-0.7% 2011 - Nov 16,364 41,938 22,570 8,696 29,529 44,918 164,015 1.3% 2011 - Dec 16,378 41,902 23,001 9,232 29,871 50,025 170,409 3.9% 2012 - Jan 17,108 43,557 23,658 9,053 29,961 44,771 168,108-1.4% 2012 - Feb 17,784 42,798 23,306 8,976 30,644 46,640 170,148 1.2% 2012 - Mar 18,028 43,234 24,552 10,225 29,560 46,762 172,361 1.3% 2012 - Apr 19,631 43,382 24,294 10,313 30,377 47,873 175,870 2.0% 2012 - May 20,642 44,184 25,335 10,350 30,282 49,446 180,239 2.5% 2012 - Jun 21,661 43,374 25,372 10,614 30,207 48,140 179,368-0.5% 2012 - Jul 21,906 43,321 25,711 10,843 30,174 46,642 178,597-0.4% 2012 - Aug 22,355 44,387 27,084 10,890 31,076 47,014 182,806 2.4% 2012 - Sep 22,637 44,575 26,827 10,579 28,577 48,204 181,399-0.8% 2012 - Oct 23,851 45,415 28,483 11,270 29,154 48,619 186,792 3.0% 2012 - Nov 24,365 44,347 28,999 10,860 28,640 49,555 186,766 0.0% 2012 - Dec 26,061 44,616 29,601 10,927 28,542 52,156 191,903 2.8% 2013 - Jan 26,492 44,867 29,856 10,261 29,379 50,649 191,504-0.2% Dec - Jan 1.7% 0.6% 0.9% 6.1% 2.9% 2.9% 0.2% Jan - Jan 54.9% 3.0% 26.2% 13.3% 1.9% 13.1% 13.9% Trough to current 103% 30% 39% 31% 8% 72% 31% Peak to current 52% 50% 49% 73% 27% 22% 39% Source: MBA, U.S. Census Bureau 39
QUARTERLY SALES OF LARGER ($2.5 MILLION+) COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES Billions of dollars, Properties and portfolios $2.5 million and greater $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $- 2001 Q1 2001 Q2 2001 Q3 2001 Q4 2002 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2003 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2004 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2005 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2006 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2007 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 Apartment Retail Industrial Office Source: Real Capital Analytics. 40
QUARTERLY SALES OF LARGER ($2.5 MILLION+) COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES Billions of dollars, Properties and portfolios $2.5 million and greater Total Percent Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sales change YTD Q4 Percent Sales change APARTMENT 2007 $ 22.63 $ 21.20 $ 24.57 $ 37.33 $ 105.73 8% $ 105.73 8% 2008 $ 14.37 $ 10.63 $ 11.00 $ 5.86 $ 41.86-60% $ 41.86-60% 2009 $ 2.90 $ 3.98 $ 4.27 $ 6.20 $ 17.35-59% $ 17.35-59% 2010 $ 5.46 $ 6.06 $ 10.58 $ 13.61 $ 35.71 106% $ 35.71 106% 2011 $ 9.26 $ 14.55 $ 15.32 $ 18.33 $ 57.47 61% $ 57.47 61% 2012 $ 13.43 $ 18.16 $ 26.94 $ 27.97 $ 86.51 51% $ 86.51 51% INDUSTRIAL 2007 $ 13.43 $ 16.79 $ 18.30 $ 12.19 $ 60.71 10% $ 60.71 10% 2008 $ 9.61 $ 7.02 $ 6.20 $ 4.06 $ 26.90-56% $ 26.90-56% 2009 $ 1.98 $ 3.06 $ 2.36 $ 3.35 $ 10.74-60% $ 10.74-60% 2010 $ 2.97 $ 3.62 $ 4.92 $ 8.51 $ 20.02 86% $ 20.02 86% 2011 $ 4.38 $ 15.00 $ 7.38 $ 8.59 $ 35.36 77% $ 35.36 77% 2012 $ 5.98 $ 9.00 $ 8.23 $ 14.50 $ 37.71 7% $ 37.71 7% OFFICE 2007 $ 79.16 $ 59.13 $ 44.21 $ 30.14 $ 212.65 52% $ 212.65 52% 2008 $ 18.04 $ 17.50 $ 14.84 $ 8.21 $ 58.60-72% $ 58.60-72% 2009 $ 3.92 $ 3.03 $ 5.35 $ 5.17 $ 17.47-70% $ 17.47-70% 2010 $ 5.12 $ 9.84 $ 10.57 $ 20.56 $ 46.09 164% $ 46.09 164% 2011 $ 10.83 $ 16.66 $ 16.79 $ 20.75 $ 65.03 41% $ 65.03 41% 2012 $ 15.75 $ 15.40 $ 17.79 $ 30.12 $ 79.07 22% $ 79.07 22% RETAIL 2007 $ 27.47 $ 22.83 $ 17.57 $ 12.41 $ 80.29 30% $ 80.29 30% 2008 $ 9.31 $ 6.46 $ 5.14 $ 4.13 $ 25.05-69% $ 25.05-69% 2009 $ 2.95 $ 2.62 $ 3.28 $ 6.32 $ 15.16-39% $ 15.16-39% 2010 $ 3.57 $ 4.28 $ 6.70 $ 8.34 $ 22.89 51% $ 22.89 51% 2011 $ 6.63 $ 16.53 $ 8.94 $ 11.93 $ 44.04 92% $ 44.04 92% 2012 $ 12.77 $ 12.29 $ 9.32 $ 19.86 $ 54.24 23% $ 54.24 23% TOTAL 2007 $ 142.70 $ 119.96 $ 104.66 $ 92.08 $ 459.38 29% $ 459.38 29% 2008 $ 51.33 $ 41.62 $ 37.19 $ 22.27 $ 152.41-67% $ 152.41-67% 2009 $ 11.75 $ 12.68 $ 15.25 $ 21.04 $ 60.72-60% $ 60.72-60% 2010 $ 17.12 $ 23.79 $ 32.77 $ 51.03 $ 124.72 105% $ 124.72 105% 2011 $ 31.11 $ 62.74 $ 48.43 $ 59.61 $ 201.89 62% $ 201.89 62% 2012 $ 47.93 $ 54.85 $ 62.29 $ 92.46 $ 257.53 28% $ 257.53 28% Source: Real Capital Analytics. 41
QUARTERLY SALES PRICES OF LARGER ($2.5 MILLION+) COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES Properties and portfolios $2.5 million and greater Sales price per unit or sq. ft. ($/sq. ft, or $1000/unit for apartment) $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 2001 01 Q1 2001 01 Q2 2001 01 Q3 2001 01 Q4 2002 02 Q1 2002 02 Q2 2002 02 Q3 2002 02 Q4 2003 03 Q1 2003 03 Q2 2003 03 Q3 2003 03 Q4 2004 04 Q1 2004 04 Q2 2004 04 Q3 2004 04 Q4 2005 05 Q1 2005 05 Q2 2005 05 Q3 2005 05 Q4 2006 06 Q1 2006 06 Q2 2006 06 Q3 2006 06 Q4 2007 07 Q1 2007 07 Q2 2007 07 Q3 2007 07 Q4 2008 08 Q1 2008 08 Q2 2008 08 Q3 2008 08 Q4 2009 09 Q1 2009 09 Q2 2009 09 Q3 2009 09 Q4 2010 0 Q1 2010 0 Q2 2010 0 Q3 2010 0 Q4 2011 1 Q1 2011 1 Q2 2011 1 Q3 2011 1 Q4 2012 2 Q1 2012 2 Q2 2012 2 Q3 2012 2 Q4 Apartment Industrial Office Retail Total Capitalization rate 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2001 Q1 2001 Q2 2001 Q3 2001 Q4 2002 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2003 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2004 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2005 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2006 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2007 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 Source: Real Capital Analytics. Apartment Industrial Office Retail 42
QUARTERLY SALES PRICES OF LARGER ($2.5 MILLION+) COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES Properties and portfolios $2.5 million and greater Price per unit or sq. ft. Capitalization Rate Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q4 Yearover-year % change Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q4 Yearover-year % change APARTMENT ($1000/unit) 2007 $ 94 $ 95 $ 104 $ 95-17% 6.2% 6.2% 6.3% 6.2% -1% 2008 $ 91 $ 90 $ 107 $ 84-11% 6.3% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 6% 2009 $ 81 $ 84 $ 75 $ 82-3% 6.5% 6.7% 7.1% 6.7% 3% 2010 $ 105 $ 88 $ 107 $ 101 23% 6.8% 6.8% 6.5% 6.5% -3% 2011 $ 97 $ 93 $ 108 $ 104 4% 6.5% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3% -4% 2012 $ 106 $ 102 $ 106 $ 123 18% 6.2% 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% -2% INDUSTRIAL ($/sq. ft) 2007 $ 70 $ 74 $ 75 $ 73 3% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.4% 2% 2008 $ 71 $ 69 $ 67 $ 67-8% 7.2% 7.6% 7.4% 7.7% 5% 2009 $ 65 $ 62 $ 57 $ 48-28% 7.9% 8.1% 8.6% 8.7% 12% 2010 $ 50 $ 54 $ 63 $ 53 9% 8.1% 8.3% 8.5% 8.4% -3% 2011 $ 54 $ 58 $ 53 $ 60 14% 7.9% 7.8% 7.9% 7.8% -7% 2012 $ 66 $ 55 $ 64 $ 63 5% 7.7% 7.6% 7.8% 7.8% 0% OFFICE ($/sq. ft) 2007 $ 237 $ 292 $ 247 $ 258 17% 6.7% 6.5% 6.7% 6.8% 0% 2008 $ 225 $ 270 $ 267 $ 202-22% 7.1% 7.0% 7.2% 7.3% 7% 2009 $ 235 $ 136 $ 189 $ 152-25% 76% 7.6% 78% 7.8% 80% 8.0% 87% 8.7% 20% 2010 $ 136 $ 196 $ 206 $ 222 46% 8.5% 8.0% 7.6% 7.4% -15% 2011 $ 207 $ 213 $ 216 $ 208-6% 7.5% 7.5% 7.3% 7.4% -1% 2012 $ 203 $ 209 $ 212 $ 230 10% 7.3% 7.2% 7.2% 7.0% -5% RETAIL ($/sq. ft) 2007 $ 173 $ 188 $ 175 $ 170-3% 6.8% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% -2% 2008 $ 185 $ 203 $ 178 $ 178 5% 6.9% 6.8% 6.9% 7.1% 6% 2009 $ 147 $ 139 $ 147 $ 140-22% 7.2% 7.3% 7.9% 8.0% 13% 2010 $ 132 $ 129 $ 144 $ 152 9% 8.1% 7.9% 7.8% 7.7% -4% 2011 $ 162 $ 145 $ 193 $ 178 17% 7.6% 7.6% 7.5% 7.4% -4% 2012 $ 159 $ 166 $ 150 $ 227 27% 7.3% 7.2% 7.2% 7.3% -1% TOTAL ($1000/unit or $/sq. ft)* 2007 $ 154 $ 155 $ 138 $ 123-12% 6.7% 6.5% 6.6% 6.6% -2% 2008 $ 121 $ 131 $ 133 $ 115-7% 6.9% 6.9% 7.0% 7.1% 8% 2009 $ 114 $ 92 $ 103 $ 94-18% 7.3% 7.4% 7.8% 7.9% 11% 2010 $ 98 $ 108 $ 119 $ 115 23% 7.8% 7.7% 7.4% 7.4% -7% 2011 $ 115 $ 103 $ 119 $ 123 7% 7.3% 7.4% 7.1% 7.1% -4% 2012 $ 128 $ 112 $ 118 $ 137 11% 7.0% 6.9% 6.8% 6.9% -2% Source: Real Capital Analytics. 43
COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTY PRICES AS REFLECTED IN SELECTED INDICES Re-Indexed Values of the Moody's/RCA CPPI, NCREIF Transaction Based Index, and Green Street Advisors CPPI December 2000 = 100 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 Dec 2000 Jun 2001 Dec 2001 Jun 2002 Dec 2002 Jun 2003 Dec 2003 Jun 2004 Dec 2004 Jun 2005 Dec 2005 Jun 2006 Dec 2006 Jun 2007 Dec 2007 Jun 2008 Dec 2008 Jun 2009 Dec 2009 Jun 2010 Dec 2010 Jun 2011 Dec 2011 Jun 2012 Dec 2012 Moodys/RCA CPPI NCREIF TBI GSA CPPI January 2007 = 100 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 Jan 2007 May 2007 Sep 2007 Jan 2008 May 2008 Sep 2008 Jan 2009 May 2009 Sep 2009 Jan 2010 May 2010 Sep 2010 Jan 2011 May 2011 Sep 2011 Jan 2012 May 2012 Sep 2012 Moody's/RCA CPPI NCREIF TBI GSA CPPI Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Real Capital Analytics, Moody's Investors Services, National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries, and Green Street Advisors 44
COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTY PRICES AS REFLECTED IN SELECTED INDICES Changes in the Moody's/RCA CPPI, NCREIF Transaction Based Index and Green Street Advisors CPPI Moody's/ RCA CPPI Year-over-year Change NCREIF TBI Green Street Advisors CPPI 2001 -- December 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 2002 -- December 6.9% 5.1% 1.9% 2003 -- December 7.6% 2.8% 10.5% 2004 -- December 13.5% 8.6% 15.9% 2005 -- December 17.7% 22.6% 13.6% 2006 -- December 7.4% 18.9% 11.3% 2007 -- December 12.0% 4.5% 7.5% 2008 -- December -18.4% -14.7% -29.4% 2009 -- December -25.9% -20.0% -2.1% 2010 -- December 9.7% 17.5% 21.6% 2011 -- December 12.1% 4.7% 12.2% 2012 -- December 8.1% 3.7% 6.7% Quarter-over-quarter Month-over month Month-over month Green Street Moody's/RCA CPPI NCREIF TBI Advisors CPPI Moody's/RCA CPPI 2010 -- December 2.8% 12.2% 0.7% 0.9% 2011 -- January 0.2% 0.8% 2011 -- February 1.2% 1.2% 2011 -- March 3.0% -0.1% 3.6% 1.0% 2011 -- April 1.8% 1.5% 2011 -- May 3.1% 1.5% 2011 -- June 3.6% -1.2% 0.1% 0.5% 2011 -- July 0.0% 2.0% 2011 -- August 1.1% 0.9% 2011 -- September 3.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.6% 2011 -- October 0.0% 1.3% 2011 -- November 0.7% 0.4% 2011 -- December 1.3% -4.2% 0.0% -0.4% 2012 -- January 0.0% 0.8% 2012 -- February 0.3% 2.6% 2012 -- March 3.8% 2.2% 0.7% 0.4% 2012 -- April 0.1% -0.5% 2012 -- May 0.9% -0.2% 2012 -- June 0.8% -0.1% 0.7% 1.5% 2012 -- July 0.0% -1.9% 2012 -- August 1.4% 0.6% 2012 -- September 0.1% 2.4% 1.0% 1.4% 2012 -- October -0.1% -0.5% 2012 -- November 1.4% 0.9% 2012 -- December 3.2% -0.9% 0.0% 2.8% Current price relative to peak 85% 98% 80% Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Real Capital Analytics, Moody's Investors Services, National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries, and Green Street Advisors 45
3. Production Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations February 4, 2013 Commercial and multifamily mortgage originations increased 49 percent between the third and the fourth quarters of 2012, and were up 49 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2011, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association s (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations. MBA s commercial/multifamily mortgage bankers originations index shows originations for the full year 2012 were 24 percent higher than in 2011. During the fourth quarter, commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending hit the highest level since 2007, said Jamie Woodwell, MBA s Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research. Low interest rates are prompting borrowers to finance, and improving property markets are helping more deals underwrite successfully. The relative strength of commercial and multifamily mortgages as investments continues to fuel lenders appetites. FOURTH QUARTER 2012 ORIGINATIONS 49 PERCENT HIGHER THAN FOURTH QUARTER 2011 The 49 percent overall increase in commercial/multifamily lending volume, when compared to the fourth quarter of 2011, was driven by increases in originations for hotel and office properties. The increase included a 331 percent increase in the dollar volume of loans for hotel properties, a 78 percent increase for office properties, a 49 percent increase for multifamily properties, a 46 percent increase for industrial properties, a five percent increase in retail property loans and a 26 percent decrease in health care loans. Among investor types, the dollar volume of loans originated for conduits for CMBS increased by 228 percent over last year s fourth quarter. There was a 68 percent increase for commercial bank portfolio loans, a 51 percent increase for Government Sponsored Enterprises (or GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), and there was an 18 percent increase in volume of loans originated for life insurance companies. Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations Index 2001 quarterly average = 100 46
FOURTH QUARTER 2012 ORIGINATIONS 49 PERCENT HIGHER THAN THIRD QUARTER 2012 Fourth quarter 2012 commercial and multifamily mortgage originations were 49 percent higher than originations in the third quarter of 2012. Compared to the third quarter, fourth quarter originations for hotel properties saw a 99 percent increase. There was an 86 percent increase for industrial properties, a 57 percent increase for health care properties, a 48 percent increase for multifamily properties, a 44 percent increase for office properties and a 22 percent increase for retail properties. Among investor types, between the third and fourth quarters of 2012, loans for conduits for CMBS saw an increase in loan volume of 141 percent, loans for GSEs saw an increase in loan volume of 54 percent, originations for life insurance companies increased 33 percent and loans for commercial bank portfolios increased by 32 percent. In late March MBA will release its Annual Origination Summation report for 2012 with final origination figures for the year. To view the report, please visit the following Web link: http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/rese arch/commercialoriginations/4q12cmforigi nationssurvey.pdf Detailed statistics on the size and scope of the commercial/multifamily origination market are available from these MBA commercial/multifamily research reports. Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Finance: Annual Origination Volume Summation, 2011 Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Finance Firms: Annual Origination Volumes, 2011 Commercial/Multifamily Database FULL YEAR 2012 ORIGINATIONS 24 PERCENT HIGHER THAN FULL YEAR 2011 Based on MBA s commercial and multifamily mortgage bankers originations index, full year 2012 commercial and multifamily mortgage originations were 24 percent higher than originations during the full year of 2011. Compared to 2011, full year originations for hotel properties saw a 61 percent increase. There was a 36 percent increase for multifamily properties, a 19 percent increase for retail properties, a 10 percent increase for industrial properties, a nine percent increase for office properties and a six percent increase for health care properties. Among investor types, for the full year 2012 versus 2011, commercial bank portfolios saw an increase in loan originations of 51 percent, loans for conduits for CMBS saw an increase in loan volume of 45 percent, originations for GSEs increased 43 percent and loans for life insurance companies were unchanged. 47
Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations Index By Investor Group Origination Volume Index Percent Change, (2001 Avg Qtr = 100) Year-overyear. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q3-to-Q4 YTD-YTD TOTAL 2007 280 352 247 275-16% 12% 11% 2008 132 130 116 54-80% -53% -63% 2009 40 60 53 61 12% 15% -51% 2010 45 61 70 114 88% 63% 36% 2011 83 126 138 129 13% -7% 64% 2012 113 157 129 192 49% 49% 24% Conduits 2007 456 606 206 357-31% 73% 13% 2008 19 9 15 6-98% -62% -97% 2009 1 4 2 1-82% -33% -85% 2010 5 11 16 62 6110% 298% 1204% 2011 26 80 42 31-50% -26% 91% 2012 23 94 42 102 228% 141% 45% Commercial Banks 2007 316 408 445 521-6% 17% -13% 2008 228 289 129 74-86% -43% -57% 2009 47 49 62 86 17% 38% -66% 2010 45 44 32 64-25% 102% -25% 2011 77 109 169 143 122% -16% 171% 2012 158 172 182 240 68% 32% 51% Life Insurance Companies 2007 158 175 222 163-15% -27% -3% 2008 119 128 163 44-73% -73% -37% 2009 41 59 69 93 112% 34% -42% 2010 94 147 176 250 170% 42% 155% 2011 200 274 282 216-13% -23% 46% 2012 220 302 191 255 18% 33% 0% Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac 2007 114 112 181 194 41% 7% 36% 2008 185 186 208 164-15% -21% 24% 2009 136 189 143 122-26% -15% -20% 2010 70 85 120 202 65% 68% -19% 2011 112 134 176 236 17% 34% 38% 2012 157 201 230 355 51% 54% 43% 48
Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations Index By Property Type Origination Volume Index Percent Change, (2001 Avg Qtr = 100) Year-overyear. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q3-to-Q4 YTD-YTD Multifamily 2007 180 195 176 220-7% 25% 10% 2008 132 113 123 83-62% -32% -42% 2009 51 89 74 77-8% 4% -36% 2010 49 67 101 138 81% 38% 22% 2011 98 143 140 181 31% 29% 59% 2012 141 170 182 270 49% 48% 36% Office Retail 2007 321 302 191 100-73% -48% -17% 2008 79 105 76 28-72% -63% -69% 2009 27 20 33 29 4% -12% -62% 2010 35 55 45 79 170% 76% 96% 2011 64 84 91 56-29% -39% 38% 2012 58 97 69 99 78% 44% 9% 2007 384 459 264 264-38% 0% -2% 2008 181 169 185 47-82% -74% -58% 2009 43 83 71 95 101% 33% -50% 2010 85 75 84 184 94% 119% 47% 2011 94 162 222 169-8% -24% 51% 2012 196 253 145 177 5% 22% 19% Industrial 2007 254 286 249 196-50% -21% -17% 2008 161 124 151 48-76% -69% -51% 2009 80 43 64 76 59% 19% -46% 2010 57 123 145 150 98% 3% 81% 2011 156 165 142 214 43% 51% 42% 2012 107 157 168 313 46% 86% 10% Hotel 2007 762 2,931 815 3,035 349% 272% 160% 2008 308 371 107 36-99% -66% -89% 2009 36 84 57 74 105% 29% -69% 2010 20 99 46 198 169% 333% 44% 2011 118 222 231 110-44% -52% 89% 2012 109 271 239 475 331% 99% 61% Health Care 2007 471 458 1,081 540 3% -50% 44% 2008 400 758 442 288-47% -35% -26% 2009 82 224 183 289 1% 58% -59% 2010 26 54 99 301 4% 204% -38% 2011 50 130 91 229-24% 153% 4% 2012 108 144 108 169-26% 57% 6% 49
QUARTERLY ISSUANCE OF COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES (CMBS) and COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE COLLATERALIZED DEBT OBLIGATIONS (CDOs) Billions of Dollars $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $- 2000 Q1 2000 Q2 2000 Q3 2000 Q4 2001 Q1 2001 Q2 2001 Q3 2001 Q4 2002 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2003 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2004 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2005 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2006 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2007 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 CMBS CRE CDO/Re-Remics Source: Commercial Real Estate Direct 50
QUARTERLY ISSUANCE OF COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES (CMBS) and COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE COLLATERALIZED DEBT OBLIGATIONS (CRE CDOs)/RE-REMICS Billions of Dollars Annual Percent Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total change YTD Q4 Percent Total change U.S. CMBS ISSUANCE 2002 $ 9.74 $ 14.93 $ 12.81 $ 16.54 $ 54.03-24% $ 54.03-24% 2003 $ 14.94 $ 20.45 $ 17.51 $ 25.09 $ 77.99 44% $ 77.99 44% 2004 $ 18.99 $ 24.50 $ 21.47 $ 28.82 $ 93.78 20% $ 93.78 20% 2005 $ 33.13 $ 39.37 $ 38.27 $ 57.40 $ 168.17 79% $ 168.17 79% 2006 $ 46.01 $ 42.18 $ 42.25 $ 72.25 $ 202.69 21% $ 202.69 21% 2007 $ 60.85 $ 75.92 $ 60.10 $ 33.30 $ 230.17 14% $ 230.17 14% 2008 $ 5.91 $ 6.24 $ - $ - $ 12.15-95% $ 12.15-95% 2009 $ - $ 1.79 $ - $ 3.18 $ 4.97-59% $ 4.97-59% 2010 $ - $ 2.91 $ 1.93 $ 6.18 $ 11.01 121% $ 11.01 121% 2011 $ 8.24 $ 7.66 $ 9.62 $ 4.46 $ 29.97 172% $ 29.97 172% 2012 $ 5.19 $ 11.42 $ 11.44 $ 16.37 $ 44.41 48% $ 44.41 48% CRE CDO/RE-REMICS ISSUANCE 2002 $ 1.82 $ 3.29 $ 1.88 $ 6.03 $ 13.02 $ 13.02 2003 $ 2.37 $ 1.16 $ 1.05 $ 1.22 $ 5.80-55% $ 5.80-55% 2004 $ 1.16 $ 2.48 $ 2.39 $ 1.77 $ 7.80 35% $ 7.80 35% 2005 $ 4.29 $ 4.42 $ 6.72 $ 5.90 $ 21.33 173% $ 21.33 173% 2006 $ 6.43 $ 7.18 $ 10.70 $ 12.26 $ 36.57 71% $ 36.57 71% 2007 $ 6.61 $ 13.56 $ 5.09 $ 3.40 $ 28.66-22% $ 28.66-22% 2008 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - -100% $ - -100% 2009 $ - $ 0.71 $ 0.32 $ - $ 1.03 N/A $ 1.03 N/A 2010 $ - $ 0.15 $ 0.32 $ 0.94 $ 1.40 36% $ 1.40 36% 2011 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - -100% $ - -100% 2012 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - N/A $ - N/A TOTAL 2002 $ 11.56 $ 18.22 $ 14.69 $ 22.58 $ 67.05 $ 67.05 2003 $ 17.31 $ 21.61 $ 18.56 $ 26.31 $ 83.79 25% $ 83.79 25% 2004 $ 20.16 $ 26.98 $ 23.86 $ 30.59 $ 101.58 21% $ 101.58 21% 2005 $ 37.42 $ 43.79 $ 44.99 $ 63.30 $ 189.50 87% $ 189.50 87% 2006 $ 52.43 $ 49.37 $ 52.95 $ 84.52 $ 239.26 26% $ 239.26 26% 2007 $ 67.46 $ 89.48 $ 65.19 $ 36.70 $ 258.82 8% $ 258.82 8% 2008 $ 5.91 $ 6.24 $ - $ - $ 12.15-95% $ 12.15-95% 2009 $ - $ 2.51 $ 0.32 $ 3.18 $ 6.01-51% $ 6.01-51% 2010 $ - $ 3.05 $ 2.25 $ 7.11 $ 12.41 107% $ 12.41 107% 2011 $ 8.24 $ 7.66 $ 9.62 $ 4.46 $ 29.97 141% $ 29.97 141% 2012 $ 5.19 $ 11.42 $ 11.44 $ 16.37 $ 44.41 48% $ 44.41 48% Source: Commercial Real Estate Direct 51
QUARTERLY COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE COMMITMENTS BY LIFE INSURANCE COMPANIES Billions of Dollars $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $- 2001 Q1 2001 Q2 2001 Q3 2001 Q4 2002 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2003 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2004 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2005 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2006 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2007 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 Source: American Council of Life Insurance Companies (ACLI) a. Annual figures may not equal the sum of quarterly figures due to change in reporting. 52
QUARTERLY COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE COMMITMENTS BY LIFE INSURANCE COMPANIES Billions of Dollars Annual (a) Percent Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total change YTD Q4 Percent Total change 2001 $ 5.95 $ 7.56 $ 7.33 $ 6.08 $ 26.92 $ 26.92 2002 $ 5.69 $ 6.34 $ 7.12 $ 9.17 $ 28.32 5% $ 28.32 5% 2003 $ 7.22 $ 7.88 $ 9.28 $ 8.30 $ 32.68 15% $ 32.68 15% 2004 $ 7.46 $ 12.11 $ 10.20 $ 8.91 $ 38.67 18% $ 38.67 18% 2005 $ 7.33 $ 12.37 $ 10.96 $ 12.51 $ 43.17 12% $ 43.17 12% 2006 $ 9.76 $ 12.66 $ 11.35 $ 10.31 $ 44.08 2% $ 44.08 2% 2007 $ 9.29 $ 10.25 $ 11.49 $ 11.67 $ 42.69-3% $ 42.69-3% 2008 $ 9.59 $ 6.03 $ 7.03 $ 4.02 $ 26.67-38% $ 26.67-38% 2009 $ 2.62 $ 4.63 $ 4.30 $ 4.83 $ 16.39-39% $ 16.39-39% 2010 $ 4.90 $ 5.94 $ 9.47 $ 10.39 $ 30.71 87% $ 30.71 87% 2011 $ 7.83 $ 15.73 $ 11.10 $ 10.85 $ 45.52 48% $ 45.52 48% 2012 $ 9.18 $ 14.90 $ 10.75 $ 10.78 $ 45.60 0% $ 45.60 0% Source: American Council of Life Insurance Companies (ACLI) a. Annual figures may not equal the sum of quarterly figures due to changes in reporting. 53
4. Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding March 11, 2013 The level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding increased by $21.8 billion, or 0.9 percent, in the fourth quarter of 2012, as all four major investor groups increased their holdings, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). On a year-over-year basis, the amount of mortgage debt outstanding at the end of 2012 was $29.7 billion higher than at the end of 2011, an increase of 1.2 percent. Multifamily mortgage debt outstanding rose to $846 billion, an increase of $11.8 billion or 1.4 percent from the third quarter, and $35.7 billion or 4.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2011. The appetite among lenders and investors for commercial and multifamily mortgages grew during the fourth quarter, said Jamie Woodwell, MBA s Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research. The fourth quarter saw the largest increase in commercial and multifamily mortgage debt outstanding since 2008. Bank-held commercial mortgages increased by the largest amount since 2008. The balance of Commercial Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding By Investor Group, Fourth Quarter 2012 54
loans held in CMBS rose by the most since 2007 and the balances of loans held by life companies and held or guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA continued their multi-year increases. The analysis summarizes the holdings of loans or, if the loans are securitized, the form of the security. For example, many life insurance companies invest both in whole loans for which they hold the mortgage note (and which appear in this data under Life Insurance Companies) and in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and other asset backed securities (ABS) for which the security issuers and trustees hold the note (and which appear here under CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues). Commercial banks continue to hold the largest share of commercial/multifamily mortgages, $836 billion, or 35 percent of the total. CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues are the second largest holders of commercial/multifamily mortgages, holding $561 billion, or 23 percent of the total. Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS hold $376 billion, or 16 percent of the total, and life insurance companies hold $326 billion, or 14 percent of the total. Many life insurance companies, banks and the GSEs purchase and hold CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues. These loans appear in the CMBS, CDO and other ABS categories. MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT Looking solely at multifamily mortgages, agency and GSE portfolios and MBS hold the largest share, with $376 billion or 45 percent of the total multifamily debt outstanding. They are followed by banks and thrifts with $234 billion, or 28 percent of the total. CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues hold $82 billion, or 10 percent of the total; state and local governments hold $62 billion, or 7 percent of the total; life insurance companies hold $51 billion, or 6 percent of the total; and the nonfarm noncorporate business holds $15 billion, or 2 percent of the total. CHANGES IN COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT In the fourth quarter of 2012, bank and thrifts saw the largest increase in dollar terms in their holdings of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt an increase of $17.1 billion or 2.1 percent. Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS increased their holdings of commercial/multifamily mortgages by $7.6 billion or 2.0 percent. Finance companies saw the largest decrease of $6 billion or 11.3 percent. In percentage terms, bank and thrifts recorded the largest increase in holdings of commercial/multifamily mortgages, at 2.1 percent. The household sector saw the biggest decrease, at 21.3 percent. CHANGES IN MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT The $12 billion increase in multifamily mortgage debt outstanding between the third quarter and fourth quarter of 2012 represents a 1.4 percent increase. In dollar terms, agency and GSE portfolios and MBS saw the largest increase in their holdings of multifamily mortgage debt, an increase of $7.6 billion, or 2.0 percent. Commercial banks increased their holdings of multifamily mortgage debt by $6.2 billion, or 2.7 percent. Private pension funds increased by $391 million, or 11.6 percent. State and local government saw the biggest decrease in their holdings of multifamily mortgage debt, by $1.4 billion or 2.3 percent. In percentage terms, private pension funds recorded the largest increase in holdings of multifamily mortgages, at 11.6 percent. Finance companies saw the biggest decrease, at 7.7 percent. CHANGES IN COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT DURING 2012 Between December 2011 and December 2012, commercial banks and thrifts saw the 55
largest increase in dollar terms in their holdings of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt - an increase of $42 billion, or 5.3 percent. CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues decreased their holdings of commercial/multifamily mortgages by $31 billion or 5.2 percent. apartment buildings and other incomeproducing properties that rely on rents and leases to make their payments. In percentage terms, the other (non life) insurance companies saw the biggest increase in their holdings of commercial/multifamily mortgages, an increase of 12 percent. Household sector saw the biggest decrease of 49 percent. CHANGES IN MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT DURING 2012 The $36 billion increase in multifamily mortgage debt outstanding during 2012 represents a 4 percent increase. In dollar terms, agency and GSE portfolios and MBS saw the largest increase in their holdings of multifamily mortgage debt - an increase of $30.8 billion or 9 percent. CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues saw a decrease of $9.5 billion in their holdings or 10 percent. In percentage terms, private pension funds recorded the biggest increase in their holdings of multifamily mortgages, 32 percent, while finance companies saw the biggest decrease, 22 percent. MBA s analysis is based on data from the Federal Reserve Board s Flow of Funds Account of the United States and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation s Quarterly Banking Profile. More information on the construction of this data series is contained in Appendix A in the report. In the fourth quarter of 2010, MBA improved its reporting of commercial and multifamily mortgage debt outstanding. The new reporting excludes two categories of bank loans that had formerly been included loans for acquisition, development and construction and loans collateralized by owner-occupied commercial properties. By excluding these loan types, the analysis here more accurately reflects the balance of loans supported by office buildings, retail centers, 56
COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT Total Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Quarter ($millions) 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 MF Commercial Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC 57
QUARTERLY COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector Mortgage Debt Outstanding 2012 Q4 ($millions) % of total 2012 Q3 ($millions) % of total ($millions) Change Percent Sector Share of $ Change Bank and Thrift 835,862 34.8% 818,733 34.4% 17,129 2.1% 78.6% CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues 560,556 23.3% 556,109 23.4% 4,447 0.8% 20.4% Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS 376,440 15.7% 368,880 15.5% 7,560 2.0% 34.7% Life insurance companies 325,766 13.6% 322,931 13.6% 2,835 0.9% 13.0% Federal government 81,655 3.4% 82,105 3.4% -450-0.5% -2.1% State and local government 74,550 3.1% 76,362 3.2% -1,812-2.4% -8.3% Finance companies 47,565 2.0% 53,637 2.3% -6,072-11.3% -27.9% REITs 33,351 1.4% 33,109 1.4% 242 0.7% 1.1% Nonfarm noncorporate business 26,506 1.1% 26,259 1.1% 247 0.9% 1.1% Private pension funds 12,102 0.5% 12,442 0.5% -340-2.7% -1.6% Nonfinancial corporate business 9,952 0.4% 10,108 0.4% -156-1.5% -0.7% State and local government retirement funds 6,849 0.3% 6,997 0.3% -148-2.1% -0.7% Household sector 6,273 0.3% 7,974 0.3% -1,701-21.3% -7.8% Other insurance companies 5,519 0.2% 5,513 0.2% 6 0.1% 0.0% TOTAL 2,402,946 2,381,159 21,787 0.9% Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC Note: Beginning with the Q4 2010 release, MBA's analysis of mortgage debt outstanding more accurately reflects the true level of mortgages backed by income-producing commercial and multifamily properties. Previous releases do not incorporate these improvements. 58
YEAR END COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector Mortgage Debt Outstanding 2012 Q4 % of ($millions) total 2011 Q4 ($millions) % of total Change ($millions) Percent Sector Share of $ Change Bank and Thrift 835,862 34.8% 793,843 33.4% 42,019 5.3% 141.6% CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues 560,556 23.3% 591,234 24.9% -30,678-5.2% -103.4% Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS 376,440 15.7% 345,596 14.6% 30,844 8.9% 104.0% Life insurance companies 325,766 13.6% 312,583 13.2% 13,183 4.2% 44.4% Federal government 81,655 3.4% 81,308 3.4% 347 0.4% 1.2% State and local government 74,550 3.1% 78,308 3.3% -3,758-4.8% -12.7% Finance companies 47,565 2.0% 61,779 2.6% -14,214-23.0% -47.9% REITs 33,351 1.4% 33,973 1.4% -622-1.8% -2.1% Nonfarm noncorporate business 26,506 1.1% 26,116 1.1% 390 1.5% 1.3% Private pension funds 12,102 0.5% 13,331 0.6% -1,229-9.2% -4.1% Nonfinancial corporate business 9,952 0.4% 10,577 0.4% -625-5.9% -2.1% State and local government retirement funds 6,849 0.3% 7,302 0.3% -453-6.2% -1.5% Household sector 6,273 0.3% 12,400 0.5% -6,127-49.4% -20.7% Other insurance companies 5,519 0.2% 4,931 0.2% 588 11.9% 2.0% TOTAL 2,402,946 2,373,281 29,665 1.2% Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC Note: Beginning with the Q4 2010 release, MBA's analysis of mortgage debt outstanding more accurately reflects the true level of mortgages backed by income-producing commercial and multifamily properties. Previous releases do not incorporate these improvements. 59
COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT Total Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector ($millions) Bank and Thrift 835,862 CM BS, CDO and other ABS issues 560,556 Agency and GSE portfolios and M BS Life insurance companies 325,766 376,440 Federal government State and local government Finance companies REITs Nonfarm noncorporate business Private pension funds Nonfinancial corporate business State and local government retirement funds Household sector Other insurance companies 81,655 74,550 47,565 33,351 26,506 12,102 9,952 6,849 6,273 5,519 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 2012Q3 2012Q4 Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC 60
COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT Total Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Selected Sector by Quarter ($millions) 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1995Q1 1996Q1 1997Q1 1998Q1 1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues Bank and Thrift Life insurance companies Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC 61
COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE FLOWS Net Change in Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Quarter ($millions) 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 (20,000) (40,000) 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 MF Commercial TOTAL Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC 62
COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE FLOWS Net Change in Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector ($millions) Bank and Thrift 17,129 Agency and GSE portfolios and M BS 7,560 CM BS, CDO and other ABS issues Life insurance companies 2,835 4,447 Nonfarm noncorporate business REITs Other insurance companies 247 242 6 State and local government retirement funds Nonfinancial corporate business Private pension funds Federal government Household sector State and local government (148) (156) (340) (450) (1,701) (1,812) Finance companies (6,072) (20,000) (15,000) (10,000) (5,000) 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 2012Q3 2012Q4 Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC 63
MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT 64
MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT Total Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Quarter ($millions) 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC 65
QUARTERLY MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector Mortgage Debt Outstanding 2012 Q4 % of ($millions) total 2012 Q3 ($millions) % of total Change ($millions) Percent Sector Share of $ Change Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS 376,440 44.5% 368,880 44.2% 7,560 2.0% 64.3% Bank and Thrift 234,036 27.7% 227,787 27.3% 6,249 2.7% 53.1% CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues 81,556 9.6% 82,792 9.9% -1,236-1.5% -10.5% State and local government 61,908 7.3% 63,352 7.6% -1,444-2.3% -12.3% Life insurance companies 51,395 6.1% 51,015 6.1% 380 0.7% 3.2% Nonfarm noncorporate business 14,691 1.7% 14,554 1.7% 137 0.9% 1.2% Federal government 13,768 1.6% 13,735 1.6% 33 0.2% 0.3% Private pension funds 3,753 0.4% 3,362 0.4% 391 11.6% 3.3% State and local government retirement funds 3,211 0.4% 3,280 0.4% -69-2.1% -0.6% Finance companies 2,823 0.3% 3,057 0.4% -234-7.7% -2.0% REITs 1,741 0.2% 1,744 0.2% -3-0.2% 0.0% Nonfinancial corporate business 383 0.0% 389 0.0% -6-1.5% -0.1% TOTAL 845,705 833,947 11,758 1.4% Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC Note: Beginning with the Q4 2010 release, MBA's analysis of mortgage debt outstanding more accurately reflects the true level of mortgages backed by income-producing commercial and multifamily properties. Previous releases do not incorporate these improvements. 66
YEAR END MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector Mortgage Debt Outstanding 2012 Q4 % of ($millions) total 2011 Q4 ($millions) % of total Change ($millions) Percent Sector Share of $ Change Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS 376,440 44.5% 345,596 42.7% 30,844 8.9% 86.5% Bank and Thrift 234,036 27.7% 218,530 27.0% 15,506 7.1% 43.5% CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues 81,556 9.6% 91,059 11.2% -9,503-10.4% -26.6% State and local government 61,908 7.3% 64,907 8.0% -2,999-4.6% -8.4% Life insurance companies 51,395 6.1% 49,378 6.1% 2,017 4.1% 5.7% Nonfarm noncorporate business 14,691 1.7% 14,475 1.8% 216 1.5% 0.6% Federal government 13,768 1.6% 14,078 1.7% -310-2.2% -0.9% Private pension funds 3,753 0.4% 2,850 0.4% 903 31.7% 2.5% State and local government retirement funds 3,211 0.4% 3,423 0.4% -212-6.2% -0.6% Finance companies 2,823 0.3% 3,628 0.4% -805-22.2% -2.3% REITs 1,741 0.2% 1,699 0.2% 42 2.5% 0.1% Nonfinancial corporate business 383 0.0% 407 0.1% -24-5.9% -0.1% TOTAL 845,705 810,030 35,675 4.4% Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC Note: Beginning with the Q4 2010 release, MBA's analysis of mortgage debt outstanding more accurately reflects the true level of mortgages backed by income-producing commercial and multifamily properties. Previous releases do not incorporate these improvements. 67
MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT Total Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector ($millions) Agency and GSE portfolios and M BS 376,440 Bank and Thrift 234,036 CM BS, CDO and other ABS issues State and local government Life insurance companies 61,908 51,395 81,556 Nonfarm noncorporate business Federal government Private pension funds State and local government retirement funds Finance companies REITs Nonfinancial corporate business 14,691 13,768 3,753 3,211 2,823 1,741 383 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 2012Q3 2012Q4 Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC 68
MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT Total Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Selected Sector by Quarter ($millions) 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1980Q1 1981Q1 1982Q1 1983Q1 1984Q1 1985Q1 1986Q1 1987Q1 1988Q1 1989Q1 1990Q1 1991Q1 1992Q1 1993Q1 1994Q1 1995Q1 1996Q1 1997Q1 1998Q1 1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues State and local government Bank and Thrift Life insurance companies Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC 69
MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE FLOWS Net Change in Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Quarter ($millions) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 (5,000) 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 Source: MBA. Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC 70
MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE FLOWS Net Change in Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector ($millions) Agency and GSE portfolios and M BS 7,560 Bank and Thrift 6,249 Private pension funds Life insurance companies Nonfarm noncorporate business Federal government REITs Nonfinancial corporate business 391 380 137 33-3 -6 State and local government retirement funds Finance companies -69-234 CM BS, CDO and other ABS issues State and local government -1,236-1,444 (4,000) (2,000) 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 2012Q3 2012Q4 Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC 71
APPENDIX A MBA s analysis is based on data from the Federal Reserve Board s Flow of Funds Account of the United States and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation s Quarterly Banking Profile MBA s analysis of commercial and multifamily mortgage debt outstanding was changed in the fourth quarter of 2010 to exclude two categories of loans that had previously been included; a. loans for acquisition, development and construction and b. loans collateralized by owneroccupied commercial properties. By excluding these loan types, MBA s analysis more accurately reflects the balance of loans supported by office buildings, retail centers, apartment buildings and other income-producing properties that rely on rents and leases to make their payments. For the fourth quarter 2012, the Federal Reserve Board s Flow of Funds Accounts data attributed $1.5 trillion of outstanding commercial and multifamily mortgages to banks and thrifts. Comparing this number to the FDIC s Quarterly Banking Profile for the same period, one sees that banks and thrifts held $234.0 billion of multifamily mortgages and $1,072.6 billion of non-farm nonresidential mortgages, of which 56 percent or $601.8 billion were incomeproducing. The combined $836 billion of mortgages backed by multifamily and other income-producing properties is included in this analysis. The $1.5 trillion total reported by the Federal Reserve also includes $470.7 billion of loans collateralized by owneroccupied commercial properties and another $189.2 billion of loans backed by acquisition, development and construction projects (including those for single-family development), which are excluded in from this analysis. Estimated Components of Federal Reserve s Flow of Funds Commercial and Multifamily Mortgages Held by Banks and Thrifts ($Billions) Multifamily mortgages, $234.0 Incomeproducing commercial mortgages, $601.8 Construction loans, $189.2 Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC Owneroccupied commercial mortgages, $470.7 72
Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Delinquencies Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Delinquency Rates Continued Down in Fourth Quarter March 5, 2013 Delinquency rates continued to decline for commercial and multifamily mortgage loans in the fourth quarter of 2012, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association s (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report. The delinquency rates for commercial and multifamily mortgages dropped again in the fourth quarter, said Jamie Woodwell, MBA s Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research. The continued decline is being driven by improving property fundamentals and a strong finance market. During the fourth quarter of 2012, the 60+ day delinquency rate for commercial and multifamily mortgages held in life company portfolios decreased 0.04 percentage points to 0.08 percent. The 60+ day delinquency rate for multifamily loans held or insured by Freddie Mac decreased 0.08 percentage points to 0.19 percent. The 60+ day delinquency rate for multifamily loans held or insured by Fannie Mae decreased 0.04 percentage points to 0.24 percent. The 90+ day delinquency rate for loans held by FDIC-insured banks and thrifts decreased 0.32 percentage points to 2.62 percent. The 30+ day delinquency rate for loans held in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) decreased 0.13 percentage points to 8.73 percent. The fourth quarter 2012 delinquency rate for commercial and multifamily mortgages held in life insurance company portfolios was 7.45 percentage points lower than the series high (7.53 percent, reached during the second quarter of 1992). The delinquency rate for multifamily loans held by Freddie Mac was 6.62 percentage points lower than the series high (6.81 percent, reached in the fourth quarter of 1992). The delinquency rate for multifamily loans held by Fannie Mae was 3.38 percentage points below the series high (3.62 percent, reached during the fourth quarter of 1991). The rate for commercial and multifamily mortgages held by banks and thrifts was 3.96 percentage points lower than the series high (6.58 percent, reached in the second quarter of 1991). The rate for loans held in CMBS was 0.29 percentage points below the series high (9.02 percent, reached in the second quarter of 2011). Please note: Today MBA also released a DataNote covering the performance of commercial and multifamily mortgages at commercial banks and thrifts through the credit crunch, recession and through 2012 The DataNote found that commercial and multifamily mortgages had the lowest charge-off rates of any major loan type and had delinquency rates lower than the overall book of loans and leases held by banks and thrifts. The DataNote can be found at: www.mortgagebankers.org/research. Construction and development loans are not included in the numbers presented here, but are included in many regulatory definitions of commercial real estate despite the fact that they are often backed by single-family residential development projects rather than by office buildings, apartment buildings, shopping centers or other income-producing properties. The FDIC delinquency rates for bank and thrift held mortgages reported here do include loans backed by owneroccupied commercial properties. The MBA analysis looks at commercial/multifamily delinquency rates for five of the largest investor-groups: commercial banks and thrifts, commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), life insurance companies, Fannie Mae and 73
Freddie Mac. Together these groups hold more than 80 percent of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding. The analysis incorporates the same measures used by each individual investor group to track the performance of their loans. Because each investor group tracks delinquencies in its own way, delinquency rates are not comparable from one group to another. Based on the unpaid principal balance (UPB) of loans, delinquency rates for each group at the end of the fourth quarter were as follows: Life company portfolios: 0.08 percent (60 or more delinquent); Freddie Mac: 0.19 percent (60 or more days delinquent); Fannie Mae: 0.24 percent (60 or more days delinquent); Banks and thrifts: 2.62 percent (90 or more days delinquent or in nonaccrual); CMBS: 8.73 percent (30 or more days delinquent or in REO). Differences between the delinquency measures are detailed in Appendix A. 74
CHART 1. COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DELINQUENCY RATES AMONG MAJOR INVESTOR GROUPS Selected delinquency rates at the end of the period NOTE: Delinquency rates shown are NOT comparable between investor groups. These rates show how performance of loans for each investor groups has varied over time, but cannot be used to compare one investor group to another. 8.0% 10.0% 7.0% 9.0% 8.0% 6.0% Banks & Thrifts (90+ days) 7.0% CMBS (30+ days and REO) 5.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1990 -- Q1 1991 -- Q1 1992 -- Q1 1993 -- Q1 1994 -- Q1 1995 -- Q1 1996 -- Q1 1997 -- Q1 1998 -- Q1 1999 -- Q1 2000 -- Q1 2001 -- Q1 2002 -- Q1 2003 -- Q1 2004 -- Q1 2005 -- Q1 2006 -- Q1 2007 -- Q1 2008 -- Q1 2009 -- Q1 2010 -- Q1 2011 -- Q1 2012 -- Q1 0.0% 1990 -- Q1 1991 -- Q1 1992 -- Q1 1993 -- Q1 1994 -- Q1 1995 -- Q1 1996 -- Q1 1997 -- Q1 1998 -- Q1 1999 -- Q1 2000 -- Q1 2001 -- Q1 2002 -- Q1 2003 -- Q1 2004 -- Q1 2005 -- Q1 2006 -- Q1 2007 -- Q1 2008 -- Q1 2009 -- Q1 2010 -- Q1 2011 -- Q1 2012 -- Q1 8.0% 8.0% 70% 7.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% Life Companies (60+ days) 6.0% 5.0% Fannie Mae* (60+ days) Freddie Mac^ (60+ days) 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1990 -- Q1 1991 -- Q1 1992 -- Q1 1993 -- Q1 1994 -- Q1 1995 -- Q1 1996 -- Q1 1997 -- Q1 1998 -- Q1 1999 -- Q1 2000 -- Q1 2001 -- Q1 2002 -- Q1 2003 -- Q1 2004 -- Q1 2005 -- Q1 2006 -- Q1 2007 -- Q1 2008 -- Q1 2009 -- Q1 2010 -- Q1 2011 -- Q1 2012 -- Q1 0.0% 1990 -- Q1 1991 -- Q1 1992 -- Q1 1993 -- Q1 1994 -- Q1 1995 -- Q1 1996 -- Q1 1997 -- Q1 1998 -- Q1 1999 -- Q1 2000 -- Q1 2001 -- Q1 2002 -- Q1 2003 -- Q1 2004 -- Q1 2005 -- Q1 2006 -- Q1 2007 -- Q1 2008 -- Q1 2009 -- Q1 2010 -- Q1 2011 -- Q1 2012 -- Q1 Sources: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and Intex Solutions, Inc., American Council of Life Insurers, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, OFHEO and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation 75
CHART 2. COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DELINQUENCY RATES AMONG MAJOR INVESTOR GROUPS, 2000 - PRESENT Selected delinquency rates at the end of the period NOTE: Delinquency rates shown are NOT comparable between investor groups. These rates show how performance of loans for each investor groups has varied over time, but cannot be used to compare one investor group to another. 5.0% 10.0% 9.0% 4.0% Banks & Thrifts (90+ days) 8.0% CMBS (30+ days and REO) 7.0% 3.0% 6.0% 5.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2000 -- Q1 2001 -- Q1 2002 -- Q1 2003 -- Q1 2004 -- Q1 2005 -- Q1 2006 -- Q1 2007 -- Q1 2008 -- Q1 2009 -- Q1 2010 -- Q1 2011 -- Q1 2012 -- Q1 0.0% 2000 -- Q1 2001 -- Q1 2002 -- Q1 2003 -- Q1 2004 -- Q1 2005 -- Q1 2006 -- Q1 2007 -- Q1 2008 -- Q1 2009 -- Q1 2010 -- Q1 2011 -- Q1 2012 -- Q1 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% Life Companies (60+ days) 0.8% Fannie Mae* (60+ days) Freddie Mac^ (60+ days) 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2000 -- Q1 2001 -- Q1 2002 -- Q1 2003 -- Q1 2004 -- Q1 2005 -- Q1 2006 -- Q1 2007 -- Q1 2008 -- Q1 2009 -- Q1 2010 -- Q1 2011 -- Q1 2012 -- Q1 2000 -- Q1 2001 -- Q1 2002 -- Q1 2003 -- Q1 2004 -- Q1 2005 -- Q1 2006 -- Q1 2007 -- Q1 2008 -- Q1 2009 -- Q1 2010 -- Q1 2011 -- Q1 2012 -- Q1 Sources: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and Intex Solutions, Inc., American Council of Life Insurers, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, OFHEO and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation 76
COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DELINQUENCY RATES AMONG MAJOR INVESTOR GROUPS Selected delinquency rates at the end of the period NOTE: Delinquency rates shown are NOT comparable between investor groups. These rates show how performance of loans for each investor groups has varied over time, but cannot be used to compare one investor group to another. Life Companies Banks & Thrifts CMBS Fannie Mae Freddie Mac (30+ days and REO) (60+ days) (60+ days) (60+days) (90+ days) Year-end 1996 -- Q4 n.a. 1.79% 0.68% 1.96% 1.63% 1997 -- Q4 0.39% 0.90% 0.37% 0.96% 1.19% 1998 -- Q4 0.54% 0.48% 0.29% 0.37% 0.93% 1999 -- Q4 0.51% 0.25% 0.12% 0.14% 0.71% 2000 -- Q4 0.81% 0.28% 0.04% 0.04% 0.67% 2001 -- Q4 1.26% 0.12% 0.33% 0.15% 0.90% 2002 -- Q4 1.47% 0.28% 0.13% 0.13% 0.86% 2003 -- Q4 1.72% 0.12% 0.13% 0.05% 0.78% 2004 -- Q4 1.29% 0.08% 0.10% 0.06% 0.61% 2005 -- Q4 0.84% 0.05% 0.27% 0.00% 0.54% 2006 -- Q4 0.41% 0.02% 0.08% 0.05% 0.60% 2007 -- Q4 0.39% 0.01% 0.08% 0.02% 0.85% 2008 -- Q4 1.17% 0.07% 0.30% 0.01% 1.65% 2009 -- Q4 5.70% 0.19% 0.63% 0.20% 3.94% 2010 -- Q4 8.69% 0.19% 0.71% 0.26% 4.21% 2011 -- Q4 8.56% 0.17% 0.59% 0.22% 3.58% 2012 -- Q4 8.73% 0.08% 0.24% 0.19% 2.62% Quarter-end 2009 -- Q4 5.70% 0.19% 0.63% 0.20% 3.94% 2010 -- Q1 6.81% 0.31% 0.79% 0.22% 4.27% 2010 -- Q2 8.22% 0.29% 0.80% 0.22% 4.34% 2010 -- Q3 8.52% 0.22% 0.65% 0.31% 4.41% 2010 -- Q4 8.69% 0.19% 0.71% 0.26% 4.21% 2011 -- Q1 8.86% 0.14% 0.64% 0.36% 4.21% 2011 -- Q2 9.02% 0.12% 0.46% 0.31% 3.97% 2011 -- Q3 8.92% 0.19% 0.57% 0.33% 3.77% 2011 -- Q4 8.56% 0.17% 0.59% 0.22% 3.58% 2012 -- Q1 8.85% 0.14% 0.37% 0.23% 3.45% 2012 -- Q2 8.97% 0.15% 0.29% 0.27% 3.11% 2012 -- Q3 8.86% 0.12% 0.28% 0.27% 2.94% 2012 -- Q4 8.73% 0.08% 0.24% 0.19% 2.62% Sources: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and Intex Solutions, Inc., American Council of Life Insurers, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, OFHEO and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Note: Differences between the delinquency measures are detailed in Appendix A. 77
APPENDIX A SOURCES & MEASURES OF DELINQUENCIES Commercial Mortgage-backed Securities (CMBS) Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and Intex Solutions, Inc. The delinquency rate for CMBS loans covers loans 30+ days delinquent, including those in foreclosure, and real estate owned (REO). The CMBS rate is the only one to include REO in either the numerator or the denominator. This series includes all private-label (non-ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac issued) deals that are currently outstanding, including both fixedand floating-rate deals. In reports released prior to Q3 2011, this series included only deals issued prior to 2009. Beginning with the Q3 2011 release all deals are included regardless of issue date. Life Companies Source: American Council of Life Insurers The delinquency rate for life insurance company loans covers loans 60+ days delinquent, including those in foreclosure, and does not include real estate owned (REO) in either the numerator or the denominator. Fannie Mae Source: Fannie Mae Monthly Volume Summary and Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight Annual Reports to Congress The delinquency rate for multifamily loans either held in portfolio or securitized and guaranteed by the company covers loans 60+ days delinquent, including those in foreclosure, and does not include real estate owned (REO) in either the numerator or the denominator. The company was unable to provide December delinquency figures for the years 2000 to 2004, so the fourth quarter numbers presented for those years are November, rather December, figures. In January 2011, Fannie Mae revised its 2010 monthly multifamily delinquency rates for all periods presented to exclude multifamily borrowers who have entered into a forbearance agreement and are abiding by the terms of the agreement, but had been previously included in the multifamily delinquency rates due to an error. Freddie Mac Source: Freddie Mac Monthly Volume Summary and Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight Annual Reports to Congress The delinquency rate for multifamily loans either held in portfolio or securitized and guaranteed by the company covers loans 60+ days delinquent, including those in foreclosure, and does not include real estate owned (REO) in either the numerator or the denominator. Freddie Mac notes that their delinquency rate [e]xcludes mortgage loans whose original contractual terms have been modified under an agreement with the borrower as long as the borrower complies with the modified contractual terms. As an example, after Hurricane Katrina, Freddie Mac modified a number of loans affected by the storms. In May 2010, Freddie Mac returned to reporting multifamily delinquencies as those loans 60+ days delinquent. FDIC-insured Banks & Thrifts Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation The delinquency rate for FDIC banks and thrifts covers loans 90+ days delinquent, including those in foreclosure and in nonaccrual status, and does not include real estate owned (REO) in either the numerator or the denominator. The universe of loans covered by this series also includes a large number of owner-occupied commercial loans loans supported by the income of the resident business rather than by rent and lease payments. In a 2007 analysis by MBA of the ten banks with the largest commercial mortgage portfolios, approximately half, in dollar volume, of their commercial (non-multifamily) loan portfolio was comprised of these owneroccupied properties. Data are available for life companies, FDICinsured banks and thirfts, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac since 1990 and CMBS since 1997. 78
COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES (CMBS) Billions of Dollars Q4 Year-Over-Year Change Percent Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total change Q3-to-Q4 Change Percent Total change U.S. CMBS 1998 $ 64.37 $ 86.50 $ 103.14 $ 126.09 1999 $ 136.53 $ 149.37 $ 160.70 $ 172.78 $ 46.70 37% $ 12.09 7.0% 2000 $ 178.27 $ 183.45 $ 192.24 $ 200.77 $ 27.99 16% $ 8.53 4.2% 2001 $ 210.05 $ 222.22 $ 238.55 $ 245.70 $ 44.93 22% $ 7.15 2.9% 2002 $ 255.08 $ 263.62 $ 271.58 $ 279.46 $ 33.76 14% $ 7.89 2.8% 2003 $ 283.91 $ 300.10 $ 313.14 $ 326.06 $ 46.60 17% $ 12.92 4.0% 2004 $ 334.38 $ 351.72 $ 369.43 $ 382.96 $ 56.90 17% $ 13.53 3.5% 2005 $ 394.92 $ 418.07 $ 454.08 $ 484.46 $ 101.50 27% $ 30.39 6.3% 2006 $ 505.84 $ 546.18 $ 582.20 $ 631.65 $ 147.19 30% $ 49.45 7.8% 2007 $ 661.99 $ 724.27 $ 804.96 $ 822.32 $ 190.67 30% $ 17.37 2.1% 2008 $ 817.71 $ 811.73 $ 799.97 $ 789.20 $ (33.13) -4% $ (10.78) -1.4% 2009 $ 780.13 $ 768.36 $ 754.73 $ 741.57 $ (47.63) -6% $ (13.16) -1.8% 2010 $ 731.75 $ 713.68 $ 698.43 $ 692.15 $ (49.43) -7% $ (6.28) -0.9% 2011 $ 676.61 $ 658.44 $ 650.34 $ 636.43 $ (55.72) -8% $ (13.91) -2.2% 2012 $ 619.66 $ 604.84 $ 593.16 $ 587.20 $ (49.23) -8% $ (5.97) -1.0% Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, and Intex Solutions, Inc. In reports released prior to Q3 2011, this series included only deals issued prior to 2009. Beginning with the Q3 2011 release all deals are included regardless of issue date. 79
COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES (CMBS) Billions of Dollars $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $- 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, and Intex Solutions, Inc. 80
COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES (CMBS) MARKET COMPOSITION Composition of CMBS Outstanding, as of December 31, 2012 Total CMBS Outstanding $ 587.2 billion By Property Types: Office 31.0% Multifamily 12.9% Retail 31.5% Industrial 5.0% Hotel 11.1% Self-Storage 1.8% Healthcare 0.4% Other 6.3% Self- Storage, 1.8% Hotel, 11.1% Industrial, 5.0% Healthcare, 0.4% Other, 6.3% Office, 31.0% By Amortization: Fully Amortizing 36.3% All Interest-Only (IO) 63.7% Full Term IO 33.4% Part Term IO 30.3% Part Term IO, 30.3% Retail, 31.5% Multifamily, 12.9% Fully Amortizing, 36.3% By Percent Defeased 4.0% By Delinquency: Current 91.27% 30-day delinquent 0.61% 60-day delinquent 0.31% 90+day delinquent 2.48% Foreclosure/REO 5.32% Full Term IO, 33.4% Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, and Intex Solutions, Inc. 81
CMBS SPREADS COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES (CMBS) NEW ISSUE SPREADS TO SWAP RATES (in Basis Points) 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Super Senior AAA AA A BBB Source: JP Morgan Securities AAA CMBS SPREADS (in Basis Points) 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 New Super Senior AAA Legacy Super Senior AAA Source: JP Morgan Securities 82
CMBS AND OTHER SPREADS Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) and selected other CRE mortgage bonds Spreads to Swap Rates (in Basis Points) New Issue CMBS Super Senior AAA AA A BBB Legacy Super Senior AAA 10/9.5 DUS 10yr Freddie K A1 End of Q3 2011 175 475 600 750 365 115 End of Q4 2011 125 400 500 615 275 97 End of Q1 2012 95 225 350 495 215 75 35 End of Q2 2012 150 270 395 575 245 85 35 End of Q3 2012 85 200 275 435 175 63 25 End of Q4 2012 75 170 240 395 133 60 32 5-Oct-12 85 190 265 425 155 60 25 12-Oct-12 80 180 250 400 165 58 25 19-Oct-12 80 180 230 400 153 58 25 26-Oct-12 80 180 230 395 160 58 25 2-Nov-12 80 180 230 395 160 58 25 9-Nov-12 80 180 240 405 172 60 23 16-Nov-12 90 185 250 435 175 60 23 23-Nov-12 90 185 250 435 172 62 30 30-Nov-12 90 185 250 435 165 62 30 7-Dec-12 85 180 250 410 145 63 32 14-Dec-12 78 175 240 400 140 60 32 21-Dec-12 75 170 240 395 133 60 32 28-Dec-12 75 170 240 395 133 60 32 4-Jan-13 67 155 210 300 121 60 28 11-Jan-13 68 150 210 285 127 57 28 18-Jan-13 68 150 210 285 133 50 27 25-Jan-13 70 145 200 285 143 51 26 1-Feb-13 70 130 185 270 140 49 26 8-Feb-13 70 130 185 270 140 49 28 15-Feb-13 72 130 185 270 138 50 28 22-Feb-13 80 125 175 285 142 52 28 1-Mar-13 88 130 190 285 148 55 28 8-Mar-13 82 135 190 280 134 59 28 Source: JP Morgan Securities 83
5. Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes Year-End 2012 The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its year-end ranking of commercial and multifamily mortgage servicers as of the end of December 31, 2012. At the top of the list of firms is Wells Fargo with $429.1 billion in U.S. master and primary servicing, followed by PNC Real Estate/Midland Loan Services with $337.6 billion, Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC with $197.3 billion, Bank of America Merrill Lynch with $112.5 billion, and KeyBank Real Estate Capital with $101.2 billion. Wells Fargo, PNC/Midland, Berkadia, Bank of America Merrill Lynch and KeyBank are the largest master and primary servicers of commercial/multifamily loans in U.S. CMBS, CDO and other ABS; PNC/Midland, MetLife, Prudential Asset Resources, GEMSA Loan Services, L.P., and Northwestern Mutual are the largest servicers for life companies; PNC/Midland, Wells Fargo, Walker & Dunlop, LLC., Berkeley Point Capital, LLC, and Berkadia are the largest Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac servicers. PNC/Midland ranks as the top master and primary servicer of commercial bank and savings institution loans; GEMSA the top credit company, pension funds, REITs, and investment funds servicer; PNC/Midland the top FHA and Ginnie Mae servicer; Wells Fargo the top for loans held in warehouse facilities; and Berkadia the top for other investor type loans. A primary servicer is generally responsible for collecting loan payments from borrowers, performing property inspections and other property-related activities. A master servicer is typically responsible for collecting cash and data from primary servicers and then providing that cash and data, through trustees, to investors. Unless otherwise noted, MBA tabulations that combine different roles do not double-count loans for which a single servicer performs multiple roles. Specific breakouts include: Total U.S. Master and Primary Servicing Volume U.S. Commercial Mortgage-backed Securities (CMBS), Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) and Other Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) Master and Primary Servicing Volume U.S. Commercial Banks and Savings Institution Volume U.S. Credit Company, Pension Funds, REITs, and Investment Funds Volume Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Servicing Volume Federal Housing Administration (FHA) Servicing Volume U.S. Life Company Servicing Volume U.S. Warehouse Volume U.S. Other Investor Volume U.S. CMBS Named Special Servicing Volume U.S. Named Special Servicing Volumes Across All Investor Groups Total Non-U.S. Master and Primary Servicing Volume MBA also asked firms to provide information about loans on which they are the named special servicer that is, where the firm stands ready to service the loan should special problems develop, such as delinquency. The largest named special servicers were CWCapital Asset Management LLC, LNR Partners, Inc., and C-III Asset Management LLC. LNR Partners is the largest special servicer for CMBS loans. 84
The MBA survey also collected servicing volumes for loans on commercial/multifamily properties located outside the United States. Situs ranks as the largest master and primary servicer of non-u.s. commercial/multifamily mortgages, followed by Hatfield Philips International, an LNR Property Company, GEMSA, PNC/Midland, and Manulife Financial/John Hancock. 85
Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Primary & Master Servicing TOTAL LOANS Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 1 Wells Fargo $429,131 35,215 $12.2 2 PNC Real Estate / Midland Loan Services $337,585 36,848 $9.2 3 Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC $197,262 28,047 $7.0 4 Bank of America Merrill Lynch $112,482 9,376 $12.0 5 KeyBank Real Estate Capital $101,169 10,935 $9.3 6 GEMSA Loan Services, L.P. $95,634 8,787 $10.9 7 Prudential Asset Resources $69,194 5,372 $12.9 8 NorthMarq Capital, LLC $41,258 5,721 $7.2 9 Walker & Dunlop, LLC $35,169 4,877 $7.2 10 MetLife $34,988 675 $51.8 11 HFF, LP $31,317 2,280 $13.7 12 Grandbridge Real Estate Capital LLC $29,837 5,470 $5.5 13 Trimont Real Estate Advisors $28,548 1,519 $18.8 14 Berkeley Point Capital LLC $28,292 2,015 $14.0 15 Principal Global Investors $24,206 3,039 $8.0 16 Northwestern Mutual $23,681 620 $38.2 17 New York Life Investments $21,723 624 $34.8 18 Red Mortgage Capital, LLC $16,211 1,787 $9.1 19 C-III Asset Management, LLC $15,812 2,184 $7.2 20 Manulife Financial / John Hancock $15,244 1,295 $11.8 21 HSBC Bank USA, N.A. $14,065 1,195 $11.8 22 Centerline Capital Group $12,225 1,982 $6.2 23 Greystone $11,830 2,943 $4.0 24 M&T Realty Capital Corporation $11,148 1,075 $10.4 25 Q10 Capital LLC $10,601 3,851 $2.8 26 Situs $10,481 1,060 $9.9 27 Pacific Life Insurance Company $9,135 530 $17.2 28 AEGON USA Realty Advisors, LLC $9,000 1,287 $7.0 29 Nationwide Life Insurance Company $8,975 1,228 $7.3 30 ING Investment Management, LLC $8,740 1,252 $7.0 31 Oak Grove Capital $8,447 1,263 $6.7 32 StanCorp Mortgage Investors, LLC $8,128 6,338 $1.3 33 Thrivent Financial for Lutherans $7,353 3,139 $2.3 34 Beech Street Capital, LLC. $7,326 643 $11.4 35 Lincoln National Corporation $7,049 1,249 $5.6 36 Newmark Realty Capital, Inc. - SAM Member $6,890 898 $7.7 37 Genworth $6,247 1,699 $3.7 38 Cohen Financial $6,063 1,898 $3.2 39 NCB, FSB $5,921 4,327 $1.4 40 Bellwether Enterprise Real Estate Capital LLC $5,470 1,299 $4.2 41 Essex Financial Services LLC $5,149 1,010 $5.1 42 Pillar Multifamily, LLC $4,873 580 $8.4 43 Aviva Investors North America Inc $4,566 885 $5.2 44 AmeriSphere Multifamily Finance, LLC $4,324 438 $9.9 86
Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Primary & Master Servicing TOTAL LOANS Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 45 Heartland Bank $4,179 704 $5.9 46 Pacific Southwest Realty Services - SAM Member $4,044 806 $5.0 47 Alliant Capital, LLC $3,888 1,019 $3.8 48 BNY Mellon $3,632 490 $7.4 49 Oppenheimer Multifamily Housing & Healthcare Finance Inc. $3,590 424 $8.5 50 ColumbiaNational Real Estate Finance, LLC $3,548 351 $10.1 51 Guardian Life Insurance Company of America $3,335 416 $8.0 52 Jones Lang LaSalle Operations, LLC $3,278 205 $16.0 53 Lancaster Pollard Mortgage Company $2,957 585 $5.1 54 P/R Mortgage & Investment Corp. $2,823 594 $4.8 55 RiverSource Life Insurance Company $2,482 839 $3.0 56 Barry S. Slatt Mortgage Company $2,403 1,021 $2.4 57 Capital Funding, LLC $2,214 362 $6.1 58 Ocwen Loan Servicing, LLC - Commercial Special Servicing $2,073 4,508 $0.5 59 Dougherty Mortgage LLC $1,875 243 $7.7 60 40 86 Mortgage Capital $1,750 353 $5.0 61 OneAmerica Financial Partners $1,656 550 $3.0 62 Sunrise Mortgage & Investment Company $1,635 926 $1.8 63 Bernard Financial Servicing Group - SAM Member $1,624 294 $5.5 64 Norris Beggs & Simpson Financial Services - SAM Member $1,581 357 $4.4 65 Medalist Capital, Inc. $1,529 329 $4.6 66 Dougherty Funding $1,510 113 $13.4 67 Colliers International New England, LLC - SAM Member $1,274 112 $11.4 68 Gershman Mortgage $1,203 156 $7.7 69 George Elkins Mortgage Banking Company $1,194 476 $2.5 70 Westcap Corp $1,155 234 $4.9 71 MEMBERS Capital Advisors $1,152 268 $4.3 72 Goedecke & Co., LLC $1,094 143 $7.6 73 HomeStreet Capital $1,069 301 $3.6 74 Capital Advisors, Inc. $1,054 307 $3.4 75 Morris, Smith and Feyh, Incorporated $986 173 $5.7 76 Thomas D Wood and Company - SAM Member $950 475 $2.0 77 Keystone Mortgage Corporation $914 285 $3.2 78 Waterstone Asset Management $874 608 $1.4 79 Glacier Real Estate Finance, Inc. $842 248 $3.4 80 Colliers International - Atlanta - SAM Member $794 172 $4.6 81 Protective Life Corp $765 252 $3.0 82 RockBridge Capital LLC $739 71 $10.4 83 Venture Mortgage Corporation - SAM Member $592 235 $2.5 84 Pace Financial Group $588 62 $9.5 85 American Real Estate Capital, LLC $577 25 $23.1 86 CBRE HMF, Inc. $527 45 $11.7 87 Great-West Financial $509 53 $9.6 88 Dickinson, Logan, Todd & Barber, Inc. - SAM Member $436 120 $3.6 87
Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Primary & Master Servicing TOTAL LOANS Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 89 Johnson Capital Group, Inc. $423 57 $7.4 90 Bethpage Federal Credit Union $407 204 $2.0 91 Terrix Financial Corporation $380 267 $1.4 92 Rockhall Funding Corp. $370 26 $14.2 93 Capital Crossing Servicing Company, LLC $326 765 $0.4 94 Western Capital Realty Advisors - SAM Member $283 52 $5.4 95 Summit Investment Partners $268 254 $1.1 96 Bonneville Multifamily Capital $267 156 $1.7 97 Innovative Capital Advisors, LLC $248 205 $1.2 98 Eustis Commercial Mortgage Corporation - SAM Member $240 71 $3.4 99 First Housing Development Corporation of Florida $235 62 $3.8 100 Ziegler Financing Corporation $210 27 $7.8 101 Directed Capital $204 147 $1.4 102 RoundPoint Mortgage Servicing Corporation $145 1,177 $0.1 103 Boston Mutual Life Insurance Company $134 139 $1.0 104 One Nevada Credit Union $76 74 $1.0 105 Allstate Investments $17 5 $3.4 88
Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Primary & Master Servicing CMBS, CDO or other ABS Loans Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 1 Wells Fargo $349,455 24,887 $14.0 2 PNC Real Estate / Midland Loan Services $122,692 10,677 $11.5 3 Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC $86,782 10,440 $8.3 4 Bank of America Merrill Lynch $77,215 4,373 $17.7 5 KeyBank Real Estate Capital $63,409 6,945 $9.1 6 GEMSA Loan Services, L.P. $17,822 2,910 $6.1 7 HFF, LP $11,540 712 $16.2 8 Principal Global Investors $10,346 1,206 $8.6 9 Prudential Asset Resources $10,178 909 $11.2 10 NorthMarq Capital, LLC $8,890 892 $10.0 11 Grandbridge Real Estate Capital LLC $6,205 828 $7.5 12 BNY Mellon $3,632 490 $7.4 13 Berkeley Point Capital LLC $2,290 98 $23.4 14 Ocwen Loan Servicing, LLC - Commercial Special Servicing $2,058 4,448 $0.5 15 C-III Asset Management, LLC $2,051 139 $14.8 16 NCB, FSB $2,027 912 $2.2 17 Nationwide Life Insurance Company $1,869 209 $8.9 18 Situs $1,669 222 $7.5 19 Pacific Life Insurance Company $1,242 275 $4.5 20 Jones Lang LaSalle Operations, LLC $1,208 59 $20.5 21 Newmark Realty Capital, Inc. - SAM Member $1,168 84 $13.9 22 Bernard Financial Servicing Group - SAM Member $1,034 100 $10.3 23 Beech Street Capital, LLC. $974 42 $23.2 24 Waterstone Asset Management $874 608 $1.4 25 Pacific Southwest Realty Services - SAM Member $837 111 $7.5 26 Cohen Financial $833 427 $2.0 27 ColumbiaNational Real Estate Finance, LLC $777 79 $9.8 28 Protective Life Corp $765 252 $3.0 29 Q10 Capital LLC $665 78 $8.5 30 M&T Realty Capital Corporation $378 23 $16.4 31 Manulife Financial / John Hancock $366 50 $7.3 32 HSBC Bank USA, N.A. $307 16 $19.2 33 Walker & Dunlop, LLC $290 27 $10.7 34 Summit Investment Partners $268 254 $1.1 35 Pace Financial Group $257 33 $7.8 36 Goedecke & Co., LLC $223 20 $11.2 37 George Elkins Mortgage Banking Company $184 12 $15.3 38 Bellwether Enterprise Real Estate Capital LLC $166 17 $9.7 39 Capital Crossing Servicing Company, LLC $115 630 $0.2 40 Venture Mortgage Corporation - SAM Member $85 18 $4.7 41 Western Capital Realty Advisors - SAM Member $78 13 $6.0 42 Glacier Real Estate Finance, Inc. $57 12 $4.8 43 Morris, Smith and Feyh, Incorporated $44 9 $4.9 44 Barry S. Slatt Mortgage Company $42 9 $4.7 89
Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Primary & Master Servicing CMBS, CDO or other ABS Loans Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 45 Norris Beggs & Simpson Financial Services - SAM Member $20 2 $10.0 46 Eustis Commercial Mortgage Corporation - SAM Member $14 2 $7.0 47 Colliers International New England, LLC - SAM Member $7 2 $3.5 90
Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Primary & Master Servicing Commercial Bank/Savings Institution Loans Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 1 PNC Real Estate / Midland Loan Services $29,292 4,773 $6.1 2 Trimont Real Estate Advisors $19,777 661 $29.9 3 KeyBank Real Estate Capital $14,187 2,453 $5.8 4 HSBC Bank USA, N.A. $10,664 888 $12.0 5 Bank of America Merrill Lynch $2,230 2,539 $0.9 6 Dougherty Funding $1,510 113 $13.4 7 Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC $1,458 126 $11.6 8 NCB, FSB $644 2,069 $0.3 9 HFF, LP $503 16 $31.4 10 Principal Global Investors $485 84 $5.8 11 Grandbridge Real Estate Capital LLC $398 51 $7.8 12 HomeStreet Capital $286 63 $4.5 13 P/R Mortgage & Investment Corp. $194 68 $2.9 14 RockBridge Capital LLC $99 7 $14.2 15 Berkeley Point Capital LLC $48 7 $6.9 16 Q10 Capital LLC $33 1 $33.0 17 RoundPoint Mortgage Servicing Corporation $22 210 $0.1 18 Ocwen Loan Servicing, LLC - Commercial Special Servicing $15 60 $0.3 19 Capital Funding, LLC $5 2 $2.5 20 Keystone Mortgage Corporation $3 4 $0.8 21 Centerline Capital Group $2 7 $0.3 22 George Elkins Mortgage Banking Company $1 1 $1.3 91
Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Primary & Master Servicing Credit Company, Pension Funds, REITs, Investment Funds Loans Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 1 GEMSA Loan Services, L.P. $27,526 2,671 $10.3 2 Bank of America Merrill Lynch $24,589 535 $46.0 3 PNC Real Estate / Midland Loan Services $18,840 7,652 $2.5 4 Situs $7,788 676 $11.5 5 Trimont Real Estate Advisors $7,427 829 $9.0 6 Cohen Financial $2,580 1,019 $2.5 7 C-III Asset Management, LLC $2,289 134 $17.1 8 NorthMarq Capital, LLC $1,156 119 $9.7 9 Prudential Asset Resources $989 228 $4.3 10 Wells Fargo $901 23 $38.5 11 Principal Global Investors $456 32 $14.3 12 New York Life Investments $319 6 $53.1 13 Capital Crossing Servicing Company, LLC $211 135 $1.6 14 Directed Capital $204 147 $1.4 15 HFF, LP $144 39 $3.7 16 Keystone Mortgage Corporation $85 9 $9.4 17 Q10 Capital LLC $63 37 $1.7 92
Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Primary & Master Servicing Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac Loans Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 1 PNC Real Estate / Midland Loan Services $62,801 6,057 $10.4 2 Wells Fargo $44,116 6,564 $6.7 3 Walker & Dunlop, LLC $27,968 3,900 $7.2 4 Berkeley Point Capital LLC $24,690 1,772 $13.9 5 Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC $23,171 2,167 $10.7 6 GEMSA Loan Services, L.P. $17,449 1,096 $15.9 7 KeyBank Real Estate Capital $17,120 1,147 $14.9 8 Prudential Asset Resources $14,064 950 $14.8 9 Centerline Capital Group $11,699 1,905 $6.1 10 NorthMarq Capital, LLC $11,666 1,430 $8.2 11 C-III Asset Management, LLC $11,046 1,862 $5.9 12 Red Mortgage Capital, LLC $10,642 954 $11.2 13 M&T Realty Capital Corporation $9,339 936 $10.0 14 Grandbridge Real Estate Capital LLC $8,246 881 $9.4 15 Greystone $7,878 2,512 $3.1 16 Oak Grove Capital $6,825 1,043 $6.5 17 Beech Street Capital, LLC. $6,171 578 $10.7 18 HFF, LP $3,952 226 $17.5 19 Alliant Capital, LLC $3,888 1,019 $3.8 20 AmeriSphere Multifamily Finance, LLC $3,862 395 $9.8 21 NCB, FSB $3,180 1,321 $2.4 22 HSBC Bank USA, N.A. $3,094 291 $10.6 23 Jones Lang LaSalle Operations, LLC $2,026 145 $14.0 24 Pillar Multifamily, LLC $1,354 147 $9.2 25 Bellwether Enterprise Real Estate Capital LLC $1,263 299 $4.2 26 HomeStreet Capital $741 225 $3.3 27 Bank of America Merrill Lynch $665 265 $2.5 28 Dougherty Mortgage LLC $527 114 $4.6 29 ColumbiaNational Real Estate Finance, LLC $513 42 $12.2 30 Cohen Financial $206 32 $6.4 31 Q10 Capital LLC $195 24 $8.1 32 George Elkins Mortgage Banking Company $64 3 $21.2 33 Lancaster Pollard Mortgage Company $54 13 $4.2 34 Bernard Financial Servicing Group - SAM Member $54 4 $13.5 35 Principal Global Investors $38 36 $1.1 36 Eustis Commercial Mortgage Corporation - SAM Member $30 7 $4.3 37 P/R Mortgage & Investment Corp. $14 10 $1.4 38 Lincoln National Corporation $6 5 $1.2 39 RoundPoint Mortgage Servicing Corporation $3 33 $0.1 40 Manulife Financial / John Hancock $1 1 $1.0 93
Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Primary & Master Servicing FHA & Ginnie Mae Loans Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 1 PNC Real Estate / Midland Loan Services $13,744 2,190 $6.3 2 Prudential Asset Resources $9,299 731 $12.7 3 Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC $7,703 2,091 $3.7 4 Wells Fargo $6,718 1,091 $6.2 5 Red Mortgage Capital, LLC $5,448 807 $6.8 6 Walker & Dunlop, LLC $4,642 570 $8.1 7 Heartland Bank $4,179 704 $5.9 8 Oppenheimer Multifamily Housing & Healthcare Finance Inc. $3,590 424 $8.5 9 Greystone $3,213 300 $10.7 10 Lancaster Pollard Mortgage Company $2,794 501 $5.6 11 P/R Mortgage & Investment Corp. $2,539 472 $5.4 12 Capital Funding, LLC $2,133 347 $6.1 13 KeyBank Real Estate Capital $1,711 185 $9.2 14 Oak Grove Capital $1,469 208 $7.1 15 Dougherty Mortgage LLC $1,348 129 $10.4 16 Berkeley Point Capital LLC $1,264 138 $9.2 17 Gershman Mortgage $1,203 156 $7.7 18 M&T Realty Capital Corporation $1,089 91 $12.0 19 Bellwether Enterprise Real Estate Capital LLC $678 140 $4.8 20 Grandbridge Real Estate Capital LLC $661 123 $5.4 21 Pillar Multifamily, LLC $613 132 $4.6 22 CBRE HMF, Inc. $527 45 $11.7 23 AmeriSphere Multifamily Finance, LLC $462 43 $10.8 24 NorthMarq Capital, LLC $462 43 $10.7 25 Johnson Capital Group, Inc. $423 57 $7.4 26 Rockhall Funding Corp. $370 26 $14.2 27 Bonneville Multifamily Capital $267 156 $1.7 28 ColumbiaNational Real Estate Finance, LLC $242 18 $13.4 29 First Housing Development Corporation of Florida $221 52 $4.3 30 Ziegler Financing Corporation $210 27 $7.8 31 Beech Street Capital, LLC. $180 23 $7.8 32 Centerline Capital Group $98 21 $4.7 33 Bank of America Merrill Lynch $8 4 $2.0 34 NCB, FSB $6 2 $3.0 35 Q10 Capital LLC $4 2 $2.0 94
Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Primary & Master Servicing Life Insurance Companies Loans Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 1 PNC Real Estate / Midland Loan Services $35,097 1,304 $26.9 2 MetLife $34,988 675 $51.8 3 Prudential Asset Resources $34,466 2,522 $13.7 4 GEMSA Loan Services, L.P. $32,682 2,088 $15.7 5 Northwestern Mutual $23,681 620 $38.2 6 New York Life Investments $21,343 616 $34.6 7 NorthMarq Capital, LLC $19,084 3,237 $5.9 8 HFF, LP $15,178 1,287 $11.8 9 Manulife Financial / John Hancock $14,877 1,244 $12.0 10 Grandbridge Real Estate Capital LLC $13,322 3,318 $4.0 11 Principal Global Investors $12,864 1,679 $7.7 12 Q10 Capital LLC $9,593 3,591 $2.7 13 AEGON USA Realty Advisors, LLC $8,930 1,278 $7.0 14 ING Investment Management, LLC $8,740 1,252 $7.0 15 StanCorp Mortgage Investors, LLC $8,128 6,338 $1.3 16 Pacific Life Insurance Company $7,716 155 $49.8 17 Thrivent Financial for Lutherans $7,353 3,139 $2.3 18 Nationwide Life Insurance Company $7,106 1,019 $7.0 19 Lincoln National Corporation $7,042 1,244 $5.7 20 Genworth $6,247 1,699 $3.7 21 Bank of America Merrill Lynch $6,147 1,606 $3.8 22 Newmark Realty Capital, Inc. - SAM Member $5,722 814 $7.0 23 Essex Financial Services LLC $5,149 1,010 $5.1 24 Aviva Investors North America Inc $4,566 885 $5.2 25 Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC $4,480 1,158 $3.9 26 Guardian Life Insurance Company of America $3,335 416 $8.0 27 Pacific Southwest Realty Services - SAM Member $3,207 694 $4.6 28 Bellwether Enterprise Real Estate Capital LLC $2,951 752 $3.9 29 Pillar Multifamily, LLC $2,906 301 $9.7 30 RiverSource Life Insurance Company $2,482 839 $3.0 31 Cohen Financial $2,444 420 $5.8 32 Barry S. Slatt Mortgage Company $2,343 1,002 $2.3 33 Walker & Dunlop, LLC $2,077 251 $8.3 34 40 86 Mortgage Capital $1,750 353 $5.0 35 OneAmerica Financial Partners $1,656 550 $3.0 36 Sunrise Mortgage & Investment Company $1,635 926 $1.8 37 Norris Beggs & Simpson Financial Services - SAM Member $1,561 355 $4.4 38 Medalist Capital, Inc. $1,529 329 $4.6 39 ColumbiaNational Real Estate Finance, LLC $1,510 138 $10.9 40 Trimont Real Estate Advisors $1,344 29 $46.3 41 Colliers International New England, LLC - SAM Member $1,267 110 $11.5 42 Westcap Corp $1,155 234 $4.9 43 MEMBERS Capital Advisors $1,152 268 $4.3 44 Capital Advisors, Inc. $1,054 307 $3.4 95
Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Primary & Master Servicing Life Insurance Companies Loans Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 45 Situs $1,024 162 $6.3 46 Thomas D Wood and Company - SAM Member $950 475 $2.0 47 George Elkins Mortgage Banking Company $945 460 $2.1 48 Morris, Smith and Feyh, Incorporated $942 164 $5.7 49 Goedecke & Co., LLC $870 123 $7.1 50 Keystone Mortgage Corporation $826 272 $3.0 51 Glacier Real Estate Finance, Inc. $785 236 $3.3 52 KeyBank Real Estate Capital $677 118 $5.7 53 RockBridge Capital LLC $598 60 $10.0 54 Colliers International - Atlanta - SAM Member $590 156 $3.8 55 American Real Estate Capital, LLC $577 25 $23.1 56 Great-West Financial $509 53 $9.6 57 Venture Mortgage Corporation - SAM Member $507 217 $2.3 58 Bernard Financial Servicing Group - SAM Member $452 184 $2.5 59 Dickinson, Logan, Todd & Barber, Inc. - SAM Member $436 120 $3.6 60 Terrix Financial Corporation $380 267 $1.4 61 Pace Financial Group $331 29 $11.4 62 Innovative Capital Advisors, LLC $248 205 $1.2 63 Western Capital Realty Advisors - SAM Member $205 39 $5.3 64 Eustis Commercial Mortgage Corporation - SAM Member $196 62 $3.2 65 Boston Mutual Life Insurance Company $134 139 $1.0 66 Wells Fargo $50 5 $9.5 67 Jones Lang LaSalle Operations, LLC $44 1 $44.0 68 HomeStreet Capital $42 13 $3.2 69 Allstate Investments $17 5 $3.4 70 NCB, FSB $1 1 $1.0 96
Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Primary & Master Servicing Loans Held in Warehouse (not elsewhere classified) Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 1 Wells Fargo $25,569 1,257 $20.3 2 PNC Real Estate / Midland Loan Services $14,710 2,450 $6.0 3 KeyBank Real Estate Capital $4,064 87 $46.7 4 Bank of America Merrill Lynch $1,628 54 $30.1 5 Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC $719 31 $23.2 6 C-III Asset Management, LLC $426 49 $8.7 7 Centerline Capital Group $426 49 $8.7 8 Prudential Asset Resources $198 32 $6.3 9 GEMSA Loan Services, L.P. $155 22 $7.0 10 Oak Grove Capital $153 12 $12.8 11 Pacific Life Insurance Company $143 84 $1.7 12 RoundPoint Mortgage Servicing Corporation $120 934 $0.1 13 Bernard Financial Servicing Group - SAM Member $84 6 $14.0 14 NCB, FSB $64 22 $2.9 15 P/R Mortgage & Investment Corp. $51 8 $6.4 16 RockBridge Capital LLC $42 4 $10.5 17 Barry S. Slatt Mortgage Company $18 9 $2.0 18 Principal Global Investors $16 2 $7.9 97
Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Primary & Master Servicing Other Loans Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 1 Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC $72,949 12,034 $6.1 2 PNC Real Estate / Midland Loan Services $40,409 1,745 $23.2 3 Wells Fargo $2,321 1,388 $1.7 4 Grandbridge Real Estate Capital LLC $1,005 269 $3.7 5 Greystone $739 131 $5.6 6 ColumbiaNational Real Estate Finance, LLC $507 74 $6.8 7 Bellwether Enterprise Real Estate Capital LLC $413 91 $4.5 8 Bethpage Federal Credit Union $407 204 $2.0 9 M&T Realty Capital Corporation $342 25 $13.7 10 Colliers International - Atlanta - SAM Member $204 16 $12.7 11 Walker & Dunlop, LLC $192 129 $1.5 12 Red Mortgage Capital, LLC $121 26 $4.7 13 Lancaster Pollard Mortgage Company $109 71 $1.5 14 Capital Funding, LLC $76 13 $5.8 15 One Nevada Credit Union $76 74 $1.0 16 AEGON USA Realty Advisors, LLC $70 9 $7.8 17 New York Life Investments $62 2 $30.9 18 Q10 Capital LLC $48 118 $0.4 19 Pacific Life Insurance Company $34 16 $2.1 20 P/R Mortgage & Investment Corp. $25 36 $0.7 21 First Housing Development Corporation of Florida $14 10 $1.4 98
Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Named Special Servicing CMBS, CDO or other ABS Loans Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 1 LNR Partners, Inc (U.S.) $142,318 11,121 $12.8 2 CWCapital Asset Management LLC $142,110 10,613 $13.4 3 C-III Asset Management, LLC $129,397 12,480 $10.4 4 PNC Real Estate / Midland Loan Services $83,989 5,809 $14.5 5 Wells Fargo $40,232 1,492 $27.0 6 Situs $22,993 1,743 $13.2 7 KeyBank Real Estate Capital $22,383 2,488 $9.0 8 Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC $8,991 3,090 $2.9 9 ORIX Capital Markets, LLC $7,708 1,039 $7.4 10 NorthStar $4,402 175 $25.2 11 BNY Mellon $3,129 298 $10.5 12 Ocwen Loan Servicing, LLC - Commercial Special Servicing $2,302 4,462 $0.5 13 Pacific Life Insurance Company $1,764 271 $6.5 14 NCB, FSB $1,713 801 $2.1 15 Prudential Asset Resources $1,115 74 $15.1 16 Berkeley Point Capital LLC $1,038 46 $22.6 17 AEGON USA Realty Advisors, LLC $914 3 $304.5 18 Protective Life Corp $765 252 $3.0 19 Trimont Real Estate Advisors $593 12 $49.4 20 Principal Global Investors $76 30 $2.5 21 Capital Crossing Servicing Company, LLC $44 179 $0.2 22 Barry S. Slatt Mortgage Company $33 9 $3.7 23 Waterstone Asset Management $23 8 $2.9 99
Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Named Special Servicing TOTAL LOANS Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 1 CWCapital Asset Management LLC $145,538 12,629 $11.5 2 LNR Partners, Inc (U.S.) $142,318 11,121 $12.8 3 C-III Asset Management, LLC $136,137 13,732 $9.9 4 PNC Real Estate / Midland Loan Services $102,469 6,549 $15.6 5 Prudential Asset Resources $60,131 4,537 $13.3 6 Wells Fargo $41,193 2,858 $14.4 7 MetLife $34,988 675 $51.8 8 Situs $24,645 2,202 $11.2 9 Northwestern Mutual $23,861 620 $38.5 10 KeyBank Real Estate Capital $22,383 2,488 $9.0 11 New York Life Investments $21,289 617 $34.5 12 Principal Global Investors $14,215 1,841 $7.7 13 Pacific Life Insurance Company $9,480 426 $22.3 14 Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC $9,022 3,093 $2.9 15 ING Investment Management, LLC $8,740 1,252 $7.0 16 StanCorp Mortgage Investors, LLC $8,128 6,338 $1.3 17 ORIX Capital Markets, LLC $7,801 1,060 $7.4 18 Lincoln National Corporation $7,049 1,249 $5.6 19 NCB, FSB $5,607 4,216 $1.3 20 Pillar Multifamily, LLC $4,873 580 $8.4 21 NorthStar $4,402 175 $25.2 22 Guardian Life Insurance Company of America $3,335 416 $8.0 23 BNY Mellon $3,129 298 $10.5 24 RiverSource Life Insurance Company $2,482 839 $3.0 25 Ocwen Loan Servicing, LLC - Commercial Special Servicing $2,317 4,522 $0.5 26 Trimont Real Estate Advisors $1,843 558 $3.3 27 Summit Investment Partners $1,196 942 $1.3 28 AEGON USA Realty Advisors, LLC $1,046 24 $43.6 29 Berkeley Point Capital LLC $1,038 46 $22.6 30 Protective Life Corp $765 252 $3.0 31 Capital Crossing Servicing Company, LLC $748 574 $1.3 32 Great-West Financial $509 53 $9.6 33 Bethpage Federal Credit Union $407 204 $2.0 34 Directed Capital $204 147 $1.4 35 Boston Mutual Life Insurance Company $134 139 $1.0 36 Barry S. Slatt Mortgage Company $33 9 $3.7 37 Waterstone Asset Management $23 8 $2.9 38 Allstate Investments $17 5 $3.4 100
Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 C/MF Loans Secured by Collateral OUTSIDE the US Total Primary & Master Servicing TOTAL LOANS Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 1 Situs $31,634 325 $97.3 2 Hatfield Phillips International, an LNR Property Company $18,158 203 $89.4 3 GEMSA Loan Services, L.P. $9,282 430 $21.6 4 PNC Real Estate / Midland Loan Services $8,505 1,097 $7.8 5 Manulife Financial / John Hancock $8,003 1,533 $5.2 6 MetLife $5,881 118 $49.8 7 Capital Services Group $2,386 3,403 $0.7 8 Trimont Real Estate Advisors $1,932 179 $10.8 9 Prudential Asset Resources $930 33 $28.2 10 LNR Partners Germany, an LNR Property Company $715 254 $2.8 11 Pacific Life Insurance Company $348 15 $23.2 12 Bank of America Merrill Lynch $109 3 $36.3 101
6. Recent Commercial/Multifamily Research Releases from MBA The following reports can be found at www.mortgagebankers.org/research. If you have trouble locating these or other MBA reports, email crefresearch@mortgagebankers.org 3/21/2013 MBA Releases 2012 Rankings of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Firms Origination Volumes Wells Fargo was the top commercial/multifamily mortgage originator in 2012, according to a set of commercial/multifamily real estate finance league tables prepared by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Other top originators include Bank of America Merrill Lynch; HFF, L.P.; PNC Real Estate; Meridian Capital Group, LLC; CBRE Capital Markets, Inc.; Prudential Mortgage Capital Company; KeyBank Real Estate Capital; Jones Lang LaSalle; Walker & Dunlop; Northmarq Capital LLC and Berkadia. 3/11/2013 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Increases by Largest Amount Since 2008 The level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding increased by $21.8 billion, or 0.9 percent, in the fourth quarter of 2012, as all four major investor groups increased their holdings, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). On a year-over-year basis, the amount of mortgage debt outstanding at the end of 2012 was $29.7 billion higher than at the end of 2011, an increase of 1.2 percent. 3/5/2013 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Delinquency Rates Continued Down in Fourth Quarter Delinquency rates continued to decline for commercial and multifamily mortgage loans in the fourth quarter of 2012, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association s (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report. 3/5/2013 MBA DataNote: Commercial and Multifamily Mortgages Banks Best Performing Loans and Leases through Credit Crunch and Recession An analysis of data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) shows that commercial and multifamily mortgages fared better through the credit crunch and recession than any other major type of loan held by banks and thrifts, according to a DataNote released today by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). 102
2/4/2013 21 Percent Drop In Volume of Commercial and Multifamily Mortgages Maturing This Year $119.5 billion, eight percent of the outstanding balance, of commercial and multifamily mortgages held by non-bank lenders and investors will mature in 2013, a 21 percent decline from the $150.6 billion that matured in 2012, according to today s release of the Mortgage Bankers Association s (MBA) 2012 Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Survey of Loan Maturity Volumes. 2/4/2013 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Originations Up 49 Percent in Q4, Up 24 Percent for Year Commercial and multifamily mortgage originations increased 49 percent between the third and the fourth quarters of 2012, and were also up 49 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2011, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association s (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations. 2/4/2013 MBA Releases 2012 Year-End Commercial/Multifamily Servicer Rankings The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its year-end ranking of commercial and multifamily mortgage servicers as of the end of December 31, 2012. At the top of the list of firms is Wells Fargo with $429.1 billion in U.S. master and primary servicing, followed by PNC Real Estate/Midland Loan Services with $337.6 billion, Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC with $197.3 billion, Bank of America Merrill Lynch with $112.5 billion, and KeyBank Real Estate Capital with $101.2 billion. 12/11/2012 Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding Increases for Fourth Straight Quarter The level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding increased by $6.6 billion, or 0.3 percent, in the third quarter of 2012, as three of the four major investor groups increased their holdings, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). 12/6/2012 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Delinquency Rates Down in Third Quarter Delinquency rates decreased for commercial and multifamily mortgage loans in the third quarter, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association s (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report. 11/13/2012 Third Quarter Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Originations Down 7 Percent from Q3 2011 Commercial and multifamily mortgage origination volumes during the third quarter of 2012 were seven percent lower than during the third quarter 2011, 17 percent lower than during the second quarter of 2012 and up 15 percent year-to-date from last year s year-to-date levels, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association s (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations. 103
10/4/2012 MBA Analysis Pegs 2011 Multifamily Lending at $110 billion, Up 60% From 2010 In 2011, 2,653 different multifamily lenders provided a total of $110.1 billion in new mortgages for apartment buildings with five or more units, according to a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The 2011 dollar volume represents a 60 percent increase from 2010 levels. Seventy-two percent of the active lenders made five or fewer multifamily loans over the course of the year. 9/24/2012 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding Declines Fueled by Drop in CMBS Loans The level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding decreased by $10.4 billion, or 0.4 percent, in the second quarter of 2012, as the balance of loans in CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues continued to decline, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). 8/30/2012 Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Delinquency Rates Continue to Drop for Banks, Rise for CMBS in Second Quarter of 2012 Commercial and multifamily mortgage delinquency rates continued to drop for banks and rise for commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) during the second quarter of 2012. Delinquency rates also declined for Fannie Mae during the second quarter, and increased by 0.01 percentage points for life companies and 0.04 percentage points for Freddie Mac according to the Mortgage Bankers Association s (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report. 8/23/2012 MBA Releases 2012 Mid-year Commercial/Multifamily Servicer Rankings The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its mid-year ranking of commercial and multifamily mortgage servicers as of June 30, 2012. At the top of the list of firms is Wells Fargo with $430.5 billion in U.S. master and primary servicing, followed by PNC Real Estate/Midland Loan Services with $357.0 billion, Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC with $206.6 billion, Bank of America Merrill Lynch with $110.1 billion, and KeyBank Real Estate Capital with $100.1 billion. 7/31/2012 Second Quarter Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Originations Up 25 Percent from Q2 2011 Commercial/multifamily mortgage origination volumes during the second quarter of 2012 were up 25 percent from second quarter 2011 levels, and up 39 percent from the first quarter of 2012, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association s (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations. 104
6/12/2012 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Balances Up $8.1 Billion in First Quarter The level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding increased by $8.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, in the first quarter of 2012, as three of the four major investor groups increased their holdings, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). 6/5/2012 Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Delinquency Rates Drop for Banks, Rise for CMBS in First Quarter of 2012 Commercial and multifamily mortgage delinquency rates dropped for banks and rose for commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) during the first quarter of 2012. Delinquency rates also declined for life insurance companies and Fannie Mae during the first quarter, and increased by 0.01 percentage points for Freddie Mac, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association s (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report. 5/16/2012 Q1 2012 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Originations Up 36 Percent from Q1 2011 First quarter 2012 commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations were 36 percent higher than during the same period last year and 12 percent lower than the fourth quarter of 2011, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association s (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations. The decrease from fourth quarter 2011 reflects the industry s usual push to finalize deals before the end of the year, and subsequent drop-offs in first quarter numbers. 4/11/2012 Mortgage Bankers Commercial/Multifamily Originations up 55 Percent to $184.3 Billion in 2011 Commercial and multifamily mortgage origination volumes increased 55 percent in 2011, with mortgage bankers reporting $184.3 billion of closed commercial and multifamily loans, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association s (MBA) 2011 Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Finance: Annual Origination Volume Summation. 4/4/2012 Wells Fargo Top Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Originator in 2011 Wells Fargo was the top commercial/multifamily mortgage originator in 2011, according to a set of listings released today by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Other originators in the top 10 include HFF, L.P.; Meridian Capital Group, LLC.; CBRE Capital Markets, Inc.; PNC Real Estate; MetLife Real Estate Investments; Deutsche Bank Commercial Real Estate; Prudential Mortgage Capital Company; Northmarq Capital LLC; and JP Morgan (CMBS). 105
3/14/2012 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding Flat in 4th Quarter; Down 0.6 percent in 2011 The level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding was essentially unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2011, as three of the four major investor groups increased their holdings, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). On a year-over-year basis, the amount of mortgage debt outstanding at the end of 2011 was $14 billion lower than at the end of 2010, a decline of 0.6 percent. 3/7/2012 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Delinquencies Down; Best Performing Bank Loans During Recession Commercial and multifamily mortgage delinquency rates declined during the fourth quarter of 2011, and an analysis of data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) shows that commercial and multifamily mortgages have fared better through the credit crunch and recession than any other major type of loan held by banks and thrifts, according to two reports released today by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). 2/6/2012 MBA Forecasts $230 Billion of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Originations in 2012; $2.4 Trillion of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding In its inaugural forecast of the commercial/multifamily real estate finance markets, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projects originations of commercial and multifamily mortgages will hit $230 billion in 2012, an increase of 17 percent from 2011 volumes, and continue to rise to $290 billion in 2015. Commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding is expected to also grow in 2012, ending the year above $2.4 trillion, two percent higher than at the end of 2011. By the end of 2015, mortgage debt outstanding is forecast to exceed $2.5 trillion. MBA previewed its forecast of the commercial/multifamily markets today at its Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Housing Convention in Atlanta. 2/6/2012 MBA: Ten Percent of Non-Bank Commercial/Multifamily Debt Will Mature in 2012, Down From 2011 Ten percent, or $150.6 billion, of commercial and multifamily mortgages held by nonbank lenders and investors will mature in 2012, a 3 percent decline from the $154.7 billion that matured in 2011, and an 18 percent decline from 2010 according to today s release of the Mortgage Bankers Association s (MBA) 2011 Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Survey of Loan Maturity Volumes. 106
2/5/2012 Wells Fargo, PNC/Midland and Berkadia Lead National Rankings of Commercial/Multifamily Servicing Volumes The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its year-end ranking of commercial and multifamily mortgage servicers as of December 31, 2011. At the top of the list of firms is Wells Fargo with $437.7 billion in U.S. master and primary servicing, followed by PNC Real Estate/Midland Loan Services with $355.1 billion, Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC with $176.5 billion, Bank of America Merrill Lynch with $115.0 billion, and KeyBank Real Estate Capital with $108.2 billion. 107
About the Commercial Real Estate / Multifamily Finance DataBook The Commercial Real Estate / Multifamily Finance DataBook is produced quarterly by the Research and Economics staff of the Mortgage Bankers Association and can be found at www.mortgagebankers. org/research. For more information, contact Jamie Woodwell, MBA s Vice President of Commercial / Multifamily Research, at (202) 557-2936 or jwoodwell@mortgagebankers.org. About the Mortgage Bankers Association The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is the national association representing the real estate finance industry, an industry that employs more than 280,000 people in virtually every community in the country. Headquartered in Washington, D.C., the association works to ensure the continued strength of the nation s residential and commercial real estate markets; to expand homeownership and extend access to affordable housing to all Americans. MBA promotes fair and ethical lending practices and fosters professional excellence among real estate finance employees through a wide range of educational programs and a variety of publications. Its membership of over 2,200 companies includes all elements of real estate finance: mortgage companies, mortgage brokers, commercial banks, thrifts, Wall Street conduits, life insurance companies and others in the mortgage lending field. For additional information, visit MBA s web site: www.mortgagebankers.org.