Demographic Characteristics and Trends in Texas and North Texas: Population and Infrastructure Plano Chamber of Commerce April 1, 2015 Austin, Texas
Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950 2014 Year* Population Numeric Change Annual Percent Change 1950 7,711,194 -- -- 1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 2.4 1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1.7 1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 2.7 1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 2.0 2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 2.3 2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 2.1 2012 26,060,796 915,235 1.8 2013 26,448,193 387,397 1.4 2014 26,956,958 451,321 1.7 * All values for the decennial dates are for April 1 st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012 and 2014 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates Note: Residual values are not presented in this table. 2
Texas Population Growth 1950 2010 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts
County Population Change, Texas, 1950 2010 1960 1950 1980 1970 2000 1990 2010 Total Population by County
Estimated Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2014 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage. 5
Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2014 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage. 6
30% of the top 40 fastest growing counties in the United States are in Texas, 2013 to 2014 U.S. Rank Geography Population Estimate Change, 2013 to 2014 2013 2014 Number Percent 5 HaysCounty, Texas 176,483 185,025 8,542 4.8 6 Fort Bend County, Texas 654,561 685,345 30,784 4.7 9 Comal County, Texas 118,891 123,694 4,803 4.0 12 Andrews County, Texas 16,808 17,477 669 4.0 13 Montgomery County, Texas 499,818 518,947 19,129 3.8 14 Williamson County, Texas 471,225 489,250 18,025 3.8 15 Kendall County, Texas 37,469 38,880 1,411 3.8 21 Ward County, Texas 11,245 11,625 380 3.4 23 Denton County, Texas 729,152 753,363 24,211 3.3 31 Collin County, Texas 858,711 885,241 26,530 3.1 32 Aransas County, Texas 24,299 24,972 743 3.1 35 Rockwall County, Texas 85,290 87,809 2,519 3.0 36 Waller, County 45,484 46,820 1,336 2.9 37 Ector County, Texas 149,522 153,904 4,382 2.9 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Population Estimates Counties in bold had growth associated with oil and gas extraction. 7
More than 1/4 of U.S. counties in the top 40 for numeric growth are in Texas, 2013 2014 U.S. Rank Geography Population Estimate Change, 2013 to 2014 2013 2014 Number Percent 1 Harris County, Texas 4,352,752 4,441,370 88,618 2.0 6 Bexar County, Texas 1,822,154 1,855,866 33,712 1.9 8 Dallas County, Texas 2,486,083 2,518,638 32,555 1.3 10 Tarrant County, Texas 1,913,943 1,945,360 31,417 1.6 11 Fort Bend County, Texas 654,561 685,345 30,784 4.7 12 Travis County, Texas 1,122,748 1,151,145 28,397 2.5 14 Collin County, Texas 858,711 885,241 26,530 3.1 16 Denton County, Texas 729,152 753,363 24,211 3.3 27 Montgomery County, Texas 499,818 518,947 19,129 3.8 31 Williamson County, Texas 471,225 489,250 18,025 3.8 39 Hidalgo County 818,942 831,073 12,060 1.5 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Population Estimates 8
Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950 2010 Migration Natural Increase 10.5% 13.3% 58.5% 34.1% 50.3% 46.3% 89.5% 86.7% 41.5% 65.9% 49.7% 53.7% 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates
Estimated Number of Net Migrants by County, Texas, 2013 to 2014 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage. 10
Net Migration Percent of 2013 2014 Population Change from Net Migration Ft. Worth Dallas Midland Austin San Antonio Houston 11
2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 Number of Annual Immigrants Admitted to the United States, FY 1820 2012 1820 1825 1830 1835 1840 1845 1850 1855 1860 1865 1870 1875 1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Fiscal Year Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security 2013
Number of Non Citizen Immigrants by World Area of Birth in the Top 5 Immigration Receiving States, 2007 2011 Illinois 3,884 7,054 10,957 22,721 Florida 11,730 11,002 15,651 59,220 30,532 New York Texas 10,045 8,331 8,814 17,403 30,982 40,835 61,418 Latin America Asia Europe Africa and Other 56,831 California 11,660 18,766 100,835 Source: 5-Year ACS PUMS 2007-2011
Shares of Recent Non Citizen Immigrants to Texas from Mexico, India, China, and All Other Countries, 2005 2012 China India Mexico All Others 2012 6.1% 11.7% 37.1% 45.1% 2011 3.9% 8.6% 45.4% 42.1% 2010 6.0% 6.5% 39.4% 48.1% 2009 1.3% 6.9% 39.5% 52.3% 2008 4.2% 5.8% 49.1% 40.9% 2007 2.5% 7.0% 51.3% 39.2% 2006 2.4% 5.7% 54.9% 36.9% 2005 0.8% 5.3% 56.8% 37.1% Source: 1-Year ACS PUMS 2005-2012
Inflows to Texas from Top 10 Sending States, 2013 Top 10 Senders, Numerically Top 10 Senders, Percentage wise California 66,318 New Mexico 30% Florida 32,619 Louisiana 29% Oklahoma 29,169 Oklahoma 29% Louisiana 29,042 Arkansas 22% Illinois 28,900 Wyoming 17% New Mexico 22,695 Colorado 11% Georgia 19,988 California 11% New York 19,935 Arizona 11% Arizona 19,224 Kansas 10% Colorado 18,979 Mississippi 10% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, State to State Flows 2013; Inflows to Texas 15
Texas Leads U.S. Job Growth, 2004 2014 Washington 320,000 New York 550,000 California 810,000 North Carolina 340,000 Texas 2,180,000
Texas Leads U.S. Job Growth, 2004 2014 Percentage of Total U.S. Job Gains Attributable to each State 29% Texas 11% California 7% 4% 4% New York North Carolina Washington
Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010 2000 2010 Hispanic or Latino 32% NH White 53% Hispanic or Latino 38% NH White 45% NH Other 4% NH Black 11% NH Other 6% NH Black 11% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count
Texas White (non Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010 250000 200000 150000 White (non Hispanic) Hispanic 100000 50000 0 Population Under 1 year 4 years 8 years 12 years 16 years 20 years 24 years 28 years 32 years 36 years 40 years 44 years 48 years 52 years 56 years 60 years 64 years 68 years 72 years 76 years 80 years 84 years 88 years 92 years 96 years 100 to 104 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 Age 19
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Male White, Non Hispanic Female White, Non Hispanic 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Male Hispanic Male Black, Non Hispanic Male Asian, Non Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non Hispanic Female Asian, Non Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 21 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Male White, Non Hispanic Male Hispanic Male Black, Non Hispanic Male Asian, Non Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Female White, Non Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non Hispanic Female Asian, Non Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 22 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
Migration to Collin County, 2005 2010 23
Inflows to Collin County from Top Sending Regions, 2013 Top 10 Sending Counties, 2013 Top 10 Sending States, 2013 Dallas County, TX 15,101 California 3,140 Denton County, TX 5,647 Florida 2,223 Asia 3,513 Oklahoma 1,177 Tarrant County, TX 2,190 Louisiana 1,061 Harris County, TX 857 Illinois 1,046 Los Angeles County, CA 813 New York 706 Grayson County, TX 668 Arizona 684 Bexar County, TX 658 Colorado 625 Africa 592 Pennsylvania 612 Hillsborough County, FL 574 Virginia 563 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, County to County Flows, 2013 24
Percent of the population aged 65 years and older, census tracts, 2007 2011 Percent aged 65 and older 0% - 10% 11% - 15% Denton Frisco McKinney Fairview Allen 16% - 20% Plano 21% - 30% 31% - 79% Rowlett Fort Worth Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 2007-2011. 25
Percent of population aged 25 years and older with high school degree or higher, census tracts, 2007 2011 Percent high school graduate or higher 16% - 50% 51% - 65% 66% - 80% 81% - 90% Denton Frisco Plano McKinney Fairview Allen 91% - 100% Rowlett Fort Worth Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 2007-2011. 26
Percent of housing units built in 2005 and later, census tracts, 2007 2011 Built 2005 or later 0% - 10% 11% - 20% 21% - 30% 31% - 50% 51% - 100% Denton Frisco Plano McKinney Fairview Allen Rowlett Fort Worth Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 2007-2011. 27
Percent of the population that is foreign born, census tracts, 2007 2011 Percent Foreign born 0% - 10% Denton McKinney 11% - 20% 21% - 30% 31% - 40% Frisco Plano Fairview Allen 41% - 75% Rowlett Fort Worth Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 2007-2011. 28
Percent of the population aged 5 years and older who speak a language other than English at home, census tracts, 2007 2011 Language other than English Denton McKinney 0% - 20% 21% - 35% 36% - 50% Frisco Plano Fairview Allen 51% - 75% 76% - 100% Rowlett Fort Worth Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 2007-2011. 29
Travel Time to Work 1990 2012 Percentage of Workers with Drive Times Longer than 25 Mins.
Mean travel time to work (minutes), census tracts, 2007 2011 Denton McKinney Mean travel time to work (minutes) 5-20 21-25 Frisco Plano Fairview Allen 26-35 36-60 Rowlett Fort Worth Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 2007-2011. 31
Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010 2050 55 50 45 Zero Migration 0.5 Migration 1.0 Migration Millions 40 35 30 25 20 Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections 32
Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010 2050 24 20 16 NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Other Millions 12 8 4 0 Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections, Half 2000 2010 Migration Scenario 33
Texas Population Change by Age Group, 2010 2050 Male 2050 Male 2010 Female 2010 Female 2050 Age 85+ 80 84 75 79 70 74 65 69 60 64 55 59 50 54 45 49 40 44 35 39 30 34 25 29 20 24 15 19 10 14 05 09 Under 5 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections, Half 2000 to 2010 Migration Scenario
Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25 64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity High School Graduates and Above 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% White Black Hispanic Other 60% 55% 50% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001 2011
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25 64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, Texas 35.0% 30.0% 31.3% 29.9% 2011 ACS Percent of the Civilian Labor Force 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 15.0% 18.1% 23.8% 24.0% 20.1% 2030 Constant 2011 % 18.7% 9.8% 9.3% 5.0% 0.0% Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree Educational Attainment These should be going DOWN These should be going UP Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario 36
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25 64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended Rates, Texas 40.0% 35.0% 31.3% 34.3% 2011 ACS Percent of the Civilian Labor Force 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 15.0% 11.4% 23.8% 20.4% 2030 Trended (2001 2011 Trend) 22.1% 20.1% 11.8% 9.8% 5.0% 0.0% Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree Educational Attainment These should be going DOWN These should be going UP Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario 37
Summary Population continues to grow quickly though growth is geographically unequal. Population growth is being driven by Hispanic population. The future Texas labor force will be largely Hispanic. Hispanics tend to have lower levels of educational attainment than other groups. Geographic distribution of industries and occupations is variable. Demographic and infrastructure challenges may have serious implications for future Texas economy. 38
Demographics & Destiny 39
Contact Lila Valencia, Ph.D. Office: (512) 463 8390 Email: Lila.Valencia@osd.state.tx.us Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us Twitter: @TexasDemography 40