AIO Life Seminar Abidjan - Côte d Ivoire

AIO Life Seminar Abidjan - Côte d Ivoire Life Insurance Market Survey of Selected African Countries Bertus Thomas Africa Committee of the Actuarial Society of South Africa

Agenda SECTION 1 SURVEY OBJECTIVE AND BACKGROUND SECTION 2 AFRICA: THE STATE OF THE CONTINENT SECTION 3 COMPARISONS BETWEEN COUNTRIES 2

Agenda SECTION 1 SURVEY OBJECTIVE AND BACKGROUND SECTION 2 AFRICA: THE STATE OF THE CONTINENT SECTION 3 COMPARISONS BETWEEN COUNTRIES 3

Survey objective and background Conducted by the Africa Committee (AC) of the Actuarial Society of South Africa Report on available market data in respect of Life Business in Africa Benefits to the AIO: 1) A basis of measuring and determining the growth and development of Life Assurance Industries in Africa 2) A source of reliable information on Life Insurance in Africa 3) A basis for comparing growth in various companies, countries and regions to identify challenges and recognize strengths to encourage sharing of experiences 4) To enrich the presentation on Tour of Africa at the AIO Annual Life Seminar

African Regions and survey scope Excluded Included

Survey objective and background Countries included in this study are grouped into the following regions: Eastern Africa Central Africa Northern Africa Southern Africa Western Africa Burundi Angola Algeria Botswana Benin Comoros Cameroon Egypt Lesotho Cape Verde Djibouti Central African Republic Libya Namibia Ghana Eritrea Chad Morocco South Africa Guinea Ethiopia Congo Swaziland Ivory Coast Kenya Gabon Liberia Malawi Mali Mauritius Mauritania Mozambique Niger Rwanda Nigeria Tanzania Sierra Leone Uganda The Gambia Zambia Togo Zimbabwe

Information Collected - Economic environment: GDP, interest and inflation rates - Demographic composition: Population, life expectancy, median age and gender - Insurance industry: Number of players, penetration, premiums and claims - Saving tendencies - Distribution Channels for financial services - Main sources used: CIA World Fact Book, African Economic Outlook, McKinsey & Company research, World Bank data, TIMETRIC, Cenfri, Asaralo.com, Internet World Stats, indexmundi, goafrica Note - The information collected on the different regions are for the countries where TIMETRIC data was available - In some of the statistics South Africa was seen as a separate region due to the maturity of its life assurance market

Agenda SECTION 1 SURVEY OBJECTIVE AND BACKGROUND SECTION 2 AFRICA: THE STATE OF THE CONTINENT SECTION 3 COMPARISONS BETWEEN COUNTRIES 8

RISE OF THE AFRICAN CONSUMER Africa's economic growth accelerated after 2000, making it the world's 2nd fastest growing region Africa s GDP was 4.2% in 2012 and is projected to accelerate to 4.5% in 2013 and further to 5.2% in 2014 Africa s growth is fuelled by a rising consumer market Several factors are shaping this new consuming class: Africa s population is concentrated in urban areas. This new class of consumer has a smaller family, is better educated, higher earning and is digitally savvy. Africans are exceptionally optimistic about their economic future: 84% say they will be better off in two years. They are both brand and quality conscious, seek out the latest trends but watch the budget, and want a modern and attractive shopping environment. SOURCE: Global Insight, McKinsey Global Institute Analysis

RISE OF THE AFRICAN CONSUMER How to serve this consumer class: Focus where it matters Develop locally relevant, quality products Hit the right price point The untapped opportunity in consumer banking Unbanked: opportunity to increase penetration Banked: opportunity to deepen usage Capturing the opportunity craft a compelling value proposition using big data develop a multi-channel strategy SOURCE: Global Insight, McKinsey Global Institute Analysis

TECHNOLOGICAL PENETRATION Source: World Bank, etransform Africa Report.

OTHER GROWTH ENABLERS The accelerating growth over the past decade can also be ascribed to: Fundamental improvements in the macroeconomic landscape, political stability and the business environment Africa is harnessing its natural wealth, with the natural resource sector being the largest single contributor to growth Other sectors are also growing rapidly, in particular agriculture, manufacturing and local services Reduced poverty levels, with around 90 million African households classified in the consuming classes in 2011, up by 31 million over the decade The expanding African workforce: 37 million additional workers in the past decade and another potential 122 million over the next decade SOURCE: Global Insight, McKinsey Global Institute Analysis

BARRIERS TO SUSTAINABLE GROWTH SOURCE: Global Insight, McKinsey Global Institute Analysis

Agenda SECTION 1 SURVEY OBJECTIVE AND BACKGROUND SECTION 2 AFRICA: THE STATE OF THE CONTINENT SECTION 3 COMPARISONS BETWEEN COUNTRIES 14

Section 3 Comparisons between countries ECONOMIC INDICATORS 15

COMPARISONS BETWEEN COUNTRIES Economic growth US$ Billion Millions SIZE OF ECONOMIES COMPARED TO POPULATION SIZE Size of Economies vs Population size 700 350 600 300 500 250 400 200 300 150 200 100 100 50 - Southern Africa Central Africa Eastern Africa Western Africa Northern Africa - Nominal GDP (LHS) Population size (RHS) Source: https://timetric.com/

Real GDP Growth INFLATION CONTROL LEADS TO MORE SUSTAINABLE GDP GROWTH 8% Real GDP growth, inflation rate and GDP per capita relationship 2013 6% 4% 2% 0% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% -2% -4% Northern Africa Western Africa Southern Africa Central Africa Eastern Africa -6% -8% -10% Size of bubble represents GDP per capita (US$) Inflation Rate Source: https://timetric.com/

PROJECTED INFLATION AND GDP GROWTH Real GDP Growth 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Inflation growth 2012 2017 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Northern Africa Western Africa Southern Africa Central Africa Eastern Africa GDP growth 2012-2017 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: https://timetric.com/ Northern Africa Western Africa Southern Africa Central Africa Eastern Africa

Real GDP Growth Real GDP Growth 6% Northern Africa - Real GDP growth, inflation rate and GDP per capita relationship 4% 2% 0% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% -2% Algeria Egypt Morocco -4% -6% Size of bubble represents GDP per capita (US$) Inflation Rate Source: https://timetric.com/ Inflation Growth GDP Growth 14% 12% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Algeria Egypt Morocco Algeria Egypt Morocco

Real GDP Growth Real GDP Growth Western Africa - Real GDP growth, inflation rate and GDP per capita relationship 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% -2% Ghana Ivory Coast Benin Nigeria -4% -6% Inflation Rate Size of bubble represents GDP per capita (US$) Source: https://timetric.com/ Inflation Growth GDP Growth 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Benin Ghana Ivory Coast Nigeria Benin Ghana Ivory Coast Nigeria

Real GDP Growth Real GDP Growth 0% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% -2% Southern Africa - Real GDP growth, inflation rate and GDP per capita relationship -4% -6% -8% Namibia South Africa Botswana Swaziland -10% -12% Inflation Rate Size of bubble represents GDP per capita (US$) Source: https://timetric.com/ 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Inflation Growth 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Botswana Namibia South Africa Swaziland 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% GDP Growth 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Botswana Namibia South Africa Swaziland

Real GDP Growth Real GDP Growth Central Africa - Real GDP growth, inflation rate and GDP per capita relationship 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -6% -4% -2% -1% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% Inflation Rate Size of bubble represents GDP per capita (US$) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Inflation Growth 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Angola Cameroon Congo Gabon 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Cameroon Congo Angola Gabon Source: https://timetric.com/ GDP Growth 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Angola Cameroon Congo Gabon

Real GDP Growth Real GDP Growth Eastern Africa - Real GDP growth, inflation rate and GDP per capita relationship 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Kenya Tanzania Ethiopia Zambia 2% 0% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% Size of bubble represents GDP per capita (US$) Inflation Rate Source: https://timetric.com/ Inflation Growth GDP Growth 16% 30% 14% 12% 10% 8% 25% 20% 15% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 10% 5% 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Ethiopia Kenya Tanzania Zambia Ethiopia Kenya Tanzania Zambia

Section 3 Comparisons between countries DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS 24

POPULATION SPLIT % of total US$ 120.00% Population Split 30,000 100.00% 25,000 80.00% 20,000 60.00% 15,000 40.00% 10,000 20.00% 5,000 0.00% Southern Africa Central Africa Eastern Africa Western Africa Northern Africa % < 15 % 15-64 % >= 65 GDP per Capita (RHS) - Source: https://timetric.com/

Age Rate per thousand HIGHEST RELATIVE LIFE EXPECTANCY IN NORTHERN AFRICA 90 Life Expectancy Comparison 18 80 16 70 14 60 12 50 10 40 8 30 6 20 4 10 2 - Southern Africa Central Africa Eastern Africa Western Africa Northern Africa Males Females Overall Median Age Death rates (per 1000) - Source: https://timetric.com/

12 OUT OF TOP 20 COUNTRIES IN TERMS OF AIDS RELATED DEATHS ARE FROM AFRICA Source: indexmundi

Age NORTHERN AFRICA 80 Overall Life Expectancy 78 76 74 72 70 68 66 64 62 60 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Algeria Egypt Morocco Source: https://timetric.com/

Age WESTERN AFRICA 70 Overall Life Expectancy 65 60 55 50 45 40 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Benin Ghana Ivory Coast Nigeria Source: https://timetric.com/

Age SOUTHERN AFRICA 65 Overall Life Expectancy 63 61 59 57 55 53 51 49 47 45 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Botswana Namibia South Africa Swaziland Source: https://timetric.com/

Age CENTRAL AFRICA 60 Overall Life Expectancy 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Angola Cameroon Congo Gabon Source: https://timetric.com/

Age EASTERN AFRICA 70 Overall Life Expectancy 65 60 55 50 45 40 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Ethiopia Kenya Tanzania Zambia Source: https://timetric.com/

Section 3 Comparisons between countries LIFE INSURANCE INDUSTRY 33

% of GDP (USD) Number PENETRATION HIGH IN COUNTRIES WHERE LIFE PRODUCTS ARE USED AS SAVINGS VEHICLES 1 0.9 0.8 Players in the market vs. insurance penetration 2013 South Africa: Number of Insurers = 37 Penetration = 9% 35 30 0.7 25 0.6 20 0.5 0.4 15 0.3 10 0.2 0.1 5 0 Southern Africa Central Africa Eastern Africa Western Africa Northern Africa Excluding South Africa Number of Insurers (RHS) Insurance Penetration (LHS) - Source: https://timetric.com/

Number of players COMPARISON OF PLAYERS, PENETRATION AND PREMIUMS 40 35 30 25 20 Insurers, Penetration and Gross Premium 2013 South Africa: Number of Insurers = 37 Penetration = 9% Gross Premium = 38 billion USD Southern Africa Excluding South Africa Central Africa 15 10 5 Eastern Africa Western Africa Northern Africa - -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 Size of the bubbles is Gross Premium Insurance penetration (% of GDP) Source: https://timetric.com/

Billion USD USD per Capita COMPARING PREMIUMS 2.5 2 Premiums 2013 South Africa: Gross Premium = 38 billion USD Premiums per capita = 736 USD per Capita 35 30 25 1.5 20 1 15 10 0.5 5 0 Southern Africa Central Africa Eastern Africa Western Africa Northern Africa Excluding South Africa Gross Written Premiums (LHS) Premiums Per Capita (RHS) - Source: https://timetric.com/

% of GDP Billion USD PREMIUM AND PENETRATION TRENDS NORTHERN AFRICA Gross Premiums 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Algeria Egypt Morocco 1.2 1 0.8 Insurance Penetration 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: https://timetric.com/ Algeria Egypt Morocco

% of GDP Billion USD PREMIUM AND PENETRATION TRENDS WESTERN AFRICA 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Gross Premiums 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Benin Ghana Ivory Coast Nigeria 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Insurance Penetration 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: https://timetric.com/ Benin Ghana Ivory Coast Nigeria

Billion USD % of GDP PREMIUM AND PENETRATION TRENDS SOUTHERN AFRICA Gross Premiums Insurance Penetration 1.2 6 1 5 0.8 4 0.6 3 0.4 2 0.2 1 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Botswana Namibia Swaziland Botswana Namibia Swaziland South Africa 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Penetration (% of GDP) 10.14 9.91 9.51 9.02 8.54 8.07 7.64 7.24 Premiums (Billion USD) 37.00 40.23 36.70 38.15 39.65 41.35 43.09 44.88 Source: https://timetric.com/

% of GDP Billion USD PREMIUM AND PENETRATION TRENDS CENTRAL AFRICA 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Gross Premiums 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Angola Cameroon Congo Gabon 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 Insurance Penetration 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: https://timetric.com/ Angola Cameroon Congo Gabon

% of GDP Billion USD PREMIUM AND PENETRATION TRENDS EASTERN AFRICA 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Gross Premiums 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Ethiopia Kenya Tanzania Zambia 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Insurance Penetration 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: https://timetric.com/ Ethiopia Kenya Tanzania Zambia

Billion USD COMPARING CLAIMS 1.4 1.2 1 Claims and Losses 2013 South Africa: Paid Claims = 29 Billion USD Loss ratio = 88% 100% 90% 80% 70% 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 Southern Africa Central Africa Eastern Africa Western Africa Northern Africa Excluding South Africa Paid Claims (LHS) Loss Ratio % (RHS) 0% Source: https://timetric.com/

USD (million) % of GNI PROPENSITY TO SAVE Net national adjusted savings as % of Gross National Income 50,000.00 45,000.00 40,000.00 35,000.00 30,000.00 25,000.00 20,000.00 15,000.00 10,000.00 5,000.00 - National savings Northern Africa Central Africa Eastern Africa Southern Africa Western Africa Excluding South Africa Savings (LHS) South Africa: National Savings = 9 million USD Savings Rate = 2.6%. Savings Rate (RHS) 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% SOURCE: World Bank Source: https://timetric.com/ Reasons why people in Sub-Saharan Africa save Responses #1 For a rainy day 25% #2 To start a business 20% #3 Education of children 10% #14 For my retirement 3% #15 To buy a car 2%

USD (Million) % of GNI Net national adjusted savings as % of Gross National Income Northern Africa 70,000.00 Saving and savings rate 16.00% 60,000.00 15.90% 50,000.00 15.80% 40,000.00 15.70% 30,000.00 20,000.00 15.60% 10,000.00 15.50% - Algeria Libya 15.40% Savings (LHS) Savings Rate (RHS) SOURCE: World Bank

USD (Million) % of GNI Net national adjusted savings as % of Gross National Income Western Africa 4,000.00 Saving and savings rate 0.30% 3,500.00 3,000.00 2,500.00 0.25% 0.20% 2,000.00 0.15% 1,500.00 0.10% 1,000.00 500.00 0.05% - Ghana Liberia 0.00% Savings (LHS) Savings Rate (RHS) SOURCE: World Bank

USD (Million) % of GNI Net national adjusted savings as % of Gross National Income Southern Africa 3,000.00 2,500.00 Saving and savings rate South Africa: National Savings = 9 million USD Savings Rate = 2.6%. 0.30% 0.25% 2,000.00 0.20% 1,500.00 0.15% 1,000.00 0.10% 500.00 0.05% - Botswana Namibia 0.00% Savings (LHS) Savings Rate (RHS) SOURCE: World Bank

USD (Million) % of GNI Net national adjusted savings as % of Gross National Income Central Africa 12,000.00 Saving and savings rate 0.80% 10,000.00 8,000.00 0.70% 0.60% 0.50% 6,000.00 0.40% 4,000.00 0.30% 0.20% 2,000.00 0.10% - Angola Cameroon 0.00% Savings (LHS) Savings Rate (RHS) SOURCE: World Bank

USD (Million) % of GNI Net national adjusted savings as % of Gross National Income Eastern Africa 4,000.00 Saving and savings rate 0.30% 3,500.00 3,000.00 2,500.00 0.25% 0.20% 2,000.00 0.15% 1,500.00 0.10% 1,000.00 500.00 0.05% - Ethiopia Tanzania 0.00% Savings (LHS) Savings Rate (RHS) SOURCE: World Bank

BEHAVIOR

ALTERNATIVE DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS FOR FINANCIAL SERVICES Current distribution reach by Channel Informal traders and retailers eclipse others with regard to number of distribution points. Market penetration for mobile networks and post offices far exceed that of other channels.

ALTERNATIVE DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS FOR FINANCIAL SERVICES Projected trends going forward

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